Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Video: Zim on the Nats' future
Ryan Zimmerman made an appearance in the CSN studios yesterday and took some time to talk on-air with Ivan Carter. The Nationals' "Face of the Franchise" since he was drafted in 2005 had some interesting things to say about where this organization used to be and where it resides now in the NL East.
Zimmerman admitted this was the first year in which he felt like the Nats had a chance to win every night they took the field and said he thinks the club needs to make only one or two key additions entering next season.
One of those additions needs to be a center fielder, Zimmerman said, because he doesn't believe Jayson Werth wants to be subjected to the physical grind of that position over a full season.
Watch the video and tell us what you think...
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92 comments:
Not the greatest insight but he looked so relaxed. I did not learn anything new and I would not expect him to be anything but positive about our future. Interesting to me that he named a lot of pitchers but did not include Detwiler or Wang. Pretty sure that is just because we do have so many pitchers.
It is his job to sound optimistic, but he is also realistic by mentioning that a lead-off hitter and another starter can help us contend next season.
Zimm with the politically correct support of Lannan.
I liked the optimism and the fact he said he felt like the Nats had a chance to win every night they took the field meant to me that he saw the change and the culture of winning is finally here and without saying it, he didn't feel that way in the past.
I wish he talked about signing a long-term contract. I think most Nats followers see that as a necessary step to know the core will be together for many years into the future.
Calling NatsJack. Any reports from the Instructional League for this week? Thanks for all your reports, BTW.
I also think the thing that stands out is the shout out for Lannan but not Det or Wang. Also telling that he said Werth doesn't want to play center - maybe not a surprise but will speak to motivation if he does have to play there part of the season.
I don't want to be a Kool-Aid drinker but it seems Zim said pretty much of what we have been talking about the past 2 days. 1 or 2 pieces away.
By the way, on the last thread, great job by Gonat on his analysis of where the Nats ended up in each part of the lineup. Shocking how bad the #1 and #2 spots were. No wonder why the RBI chances seemed not to be there much especially when you consider May to July essentially no Zim and Desmond wasn't leading off and Werth wasn't in the 2 hole.
Gonat said...
Jeeves, the Nats scored 624 runs this season. If they can increase that by 14% to get above 700, it certainly gets them into that range to be in the playoff discussion. Roughly 1/2 run per game more.
Here's where the Nats were for BA/OBP in batting order:
1st .226/ .285
2nd .222/ .283
3rd .270/ .344
4th .255/ .330
5th .251/ .326
6th .260/ .330
7th .240/ .304
8th .259/ .318
There were a total of 1,485 plate appearances between the leadoff and 2nd batter. The 1st and 2nd spots got on base 412 times while a .320 OBP would get you 63 more men on base in the 1st and 2nd spots over the season. It also gets you 63 more at-bats during those games since they aren't extra outs. Not sure what metric would tell you how many of those runs would score. Now take 63 outs saved gives you an additional 63 at-bats and they get on at a .320 clip gives you 20 more base runners so of the 83 extra runners on base if 1/3 scores, you just found 27 runs.
Werth needs to be in the 2 hole for 2012. BTW, Bernadina had the highest BA/OBP in the 2 hole .313/.333 in 67 plate appearances which may make that a compelling platoon in 2012 so Werth gets some days off. Werth had a .327 OBP.
October 11, 2011 10:33 PM
Anonymou8s said...
http://www.csnwashington.com/10/12/11/Ivan-Carter-talks-with-Ryan-Zimmerman/landing.html?blockID=576008&feedID=6358
Good interview with Zim on the future of the team. 2 things that Zim says that I found interesting were that Jayson Werth may not be a CF and John Lannan again mentioned as part of the Big 3 (JZim, Stras, Lannan). No mention of Wang. Most of the spots spoken for next year, 2 openings.
October 12, 2011 8:12 AM
Big surprise was he didn't mention Detwiler who is one of his boys. That is always a telling signal to me as he rolls through the names as to who isn't included. Clearly JZim, Strasburg and Lannen. The guys just don't believe in Det is my opinion. Detwiler makes the team in the bullpen or he gets traded as he has no options. There is still time for Detwiler. CJ Wilson was a closer until he was 29 when they converted him to a starter after he filled out.
Mark'd said...
Mark, I went to the Cots site and it looks like the Nats have guaranteed contracts of $50 million between Werth, Zim, Strasburg, LaRoche, Maya, Harper, Burnett, Purke, and Rendon. Add to that arbitration players in JZim, Morse, Clippard, Lannan, Flores, Bernadina, Detwiler, and Gorzelanny and the Nats are at $70,000,000.
That is $70 million prior to paying the remaining 12 active players which could certainly include 2 higher priced Free Agents. I could see the payroll at a minimum of $80,000,000 to a high of $94,000,000.
Do I have that correct?
October 6, 2011 1:10 PM
Goessling tackles the money issue. http://www.masnsports.com/the_goessling_game/2011/10/looking-at-the-nationals-money-matters.html
Always good to see what our people say then see what Goessling has to say. Why do I always have this idea they read Nats Insider???
He also went straight to Cots who hadn't updated in a while and didn't add in Purke's or Rendon's guaranteed dollars for 2012 that have to be part of it since they are on the 40 man just like Bryce Harper.
Goessling writes...To start with, they already have $44,596,000 tied up in seven players (Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Adam LaRoche, Yunesky Maya and Sean Burnett) for 2012. They've also got some big-time arbitration cases (John Lannan, Tyler Clippard, Jordan Zimmermann, Michael Morse and Tom Gorzelanny) that could add another $12-14 million to the payroll. If all those players are back, the Nationals could reasonably have committed something in the neighborhood of $60 million to 12 players.
It's also likely that the team will be aggressive this offseason, boosting its payroll through a trade or free agent signing to add a pitcher or a leadoff hitter. If that happens, the Nationals' payroll would likely jump north of $75 million for the first time - and it wouldn't be surprising to see it end up higher than that...
"Lannan's still young... so the Yankees should be able to get several productive years out of him after we trade for Granderson."
Mark'd, I think you made 1 error, I don't think Ross Detwiler is arbitration eligible this year. Not sure about Bernadina.
I believe with Purke and Rendon in the numbers it is just under $49 million. Figure $61 to $64 million after arb eligible players have their salaries set. Add in 8 players at league minimum and then it is the question of the Nats own Free Agents like Wang and Ankiel and Coffey and any trades or big Free Agents they sign.
I see $78 million with Wang in there to well in excess of $90 million with a Buehrle and Crisp in the equation.
I think someone said, spend money to make money.
Bernadina and Det aren't arb. eligible, but they are out of options.
Not sure why Goessling thinks Gorzelanny will be offered arbitration. He and Slaten are no-brainer non-tender candidates.
If we can sign CJ Wilson, I'd like to see that payroll bumped to a respectable $100 million.
I pointed out that error to Goessling on Purke and Rendon and he has adjusted that in the comments section for the payroll.
Grandstander, no chance of getting CC or CJ unless the Nats want to get un-Werth'd again.
Getting a 3.50 ERA guy + a top outfielder "bat" gives the Nats more net runs if you do the math.
While it takes 3 top starters to get you through the post-season, you can pick up like the Tigers did a guy like Fister at the trade deadline.
The consideration of course is trying to if the Nats are in the hunt for 2012 and the innings limit with Strasburg.
Grandstander, Davey says he likes Gorzo. They either try to sign him before arbitration or non-tender him. Doubt they want to push their luck in arbitration and pay him "starter" money to sit in the bullpen.
Also thanks to you and SteveM for pulling out Detwiler and Bernadina from my Arbitration eligible projections although I didn't have big raises in there.
My guess is they don't go after the #3 pitcher. They want the #1 to push Stras down during his innings limited recovery year and first full year in the majors. 1st non-innings limited 2nd full year in the majors for Zimmermann. Rizzo keeps strongly implying that both should be further down in the rotation at this point.
Zach Grienke is in his last year with the Brewers. Forget the ERA people, his FIP was 2.98. His xFIP (weighed against a pitcher if they allow too many home runs) was even lower at 2.56. If the Nats are going for a blockbuster trade its with the Brewers for this pitcher. They are going to try to bring him back to the table and see if they can't change his mind. They just might have enough pitching prospects for the Brewer's to consider. And given the almost foregone conclusion that the notable loss will be Prince Fielder it sure seems like this might be a good time for Brewers to get what they can and start rebuilding.
And yeah they could still sign lefty CJ Wilson even with a trade. If this were to happen the Nats would have to be considered the greatest challenge to the Phils.
Goessling too often is an idiot. He thinks Lannan is a #1 starter. With his FIP and xFIP he is barely a #5. He is not going to be on the roster next year. Start with that and Mr. Goosebumps the series looks pretty lame.
I think people are reading too much into Zim not mentioning Detwiler; just because he didn't mention him doesn't mean the team is sour on him. Should Detwiler turn up in spring training with the same arm he had at the end of the season you won't have to worry about options, there is a place on our roster - and every MLB team - for a guy who can pitch like that.
I agree I would have loved to see the spectre of a long term contract raised in this interview.
I like the idea of going after Edwin Jackson as a cost effective number 3 starter and moving Desmond and Bernadina for BJ Upton to bat 2nd in the order. His .330 OBP and speed will give Zimm someone to drive in.
Anon 12:18 is correct, Rizzo is going to try and get a #1 pitcher. Not sure if he is going to be able to work the trade but that is what he wants. It may be Grienke but I think it will be Cain. If the Giants don't get Reyes they will trade for a SS.
Not sure why Goessling thinks Gorzelanny will be offered arbitration. He and Slaten are no-brainer non-tender candidates.
Gorzelanny is a lefty who pitched well both as a starter and out of the bullpen last year. He can be a LOOGY, a long reliever and a spot starter. In other words, if you had to replace him you might need three separate guys. If he ends up with a somewhat high salary out of arbitration, consider what it would cost to get those three separate guys and that salary doesn't seem so high any more. Plus, if he's non-tendered that is basically giving him away for nothing. Under contract, he has trade value.
Nice job by Ryan. Upbeat, optimistic........great to hear that for a change. He SHOULD be the face of the franchise.
Oh, an aside to the FO:
When the Phillies come knocking on the door to replace their power-hitting first baseman, just say NO, Michael Morse is not available. OK, maybe if they offer Halladay :)
Anon, you act like #1s are easily attainable. The Yankees will snag CJ Wilson and getting a legitimate #1 in trade won't happen. Besides, the Nats were #7 of all teams in MLB in starting pitching.
The Nats would benefit from a solid #3 and a high OBP outfielder.
Greinke is way overated and suffers from mood disorder. He can't cope at road stadiums. His game against the Cardinals was awful. 6 runs in 6 innings is bad and that was at his home stadium. He can't handle pressure.
I'd take a step back from the John Lanna precipice if I were the Washington Nationals.
One of the FEW benefits of being old is being able to remember baseball back into the 1960's.
It's there that history tells us to slow down on John Lannan.
In the early 1960's the Senators had a young lefty by the name of Claude Osteen. In his three years as a starter, Osteen had averaged 12-15, 3.41, 9.0/2.5/4.4.
Very Lannan-like.
In the winter of '64 the Dodgers completed a mega-trade with Washington that sent the 24-year-old Osteen to Los Angeles and brought Kenny McMullen & Frank Howard to the Nats (along with some others)
Osteen, over the next decade, averaged 16-11 with a 3.13 ERA along with a 8.3/3.0/4.7 slash line.
Two years later, the Senators had a lefty named Mike McCormick, who went 10-11,3.42, 8.4/2.1/4.5 in '65-'66. He was traded to San Francisco for Bob Priddy & Cap Peterson.
He won 22 games the next year and averaged 14-11, 3.61 through the end of the decade.
Lefties are odd commodities. They seem to get remarkably better as they mature, perhaps more so than lefties.
I wouldn't want John Lannan to be the next Claude Osteen or Mike McCormick.
SCNatsFan said...
"I think people are reading too much into Zim not mentioning Detwiler"
EXACTLY. His statement are probably just off the top of his head. Silly to think his comments have any roster meaning.
Who here would trade Zimm even up for Braun? What if you were able to look into the future and see a very good thirdbaseman in Rendon?
@ Feel Wood
The problem is Gorzo will net about $3 million through arbitration and that seems a little high for what he's worth. I feel like the Nats will most likely offer him a contract in the area of $1.5 million or tell him to see what he can get in the FA market.
I just don't understand why you'd pay a long reliever or a LOOGY $3 million.
I agree with everything said by Anonymous 12:18. Greinke is the perfect fit. If you can get him from the Brewers for a package of Desmond and one or two of our better prospects, great. If not, wait until 2013 and sign him up then without damaging the farm system. He obviously was willing to consider the team before and when the Brewers came through town this season he made some very positive comments about the Nats. He's a consistently good pitcher with plenty left in the tank who would probably enjoy having Strasburg in front of him occupying the limelight given his social anxiety issues. It's a perfect match.
@NCog, I cannot think of a player I would trade Zimm for right now. His performance is among the best in the game and his value to the franchise is too great. They'll find a place for Rendon if he progesses as most people expect.
Farid: Two very good historic references (Osteen & McCormick). Osteen in particular strikes home with me, as I grew up listening to Vin Scully & those Dodger teams in the 60's where Claude became the solid #3 behind Drysdale & Koufax.
N. Cognito, I think Ryan Zimmerman knew exactly what he was saying as Detwiler is not a "lock" for the starting rotation. It has no roster implication as Detwiler is here in 2012 unless he is traded which means he is either a starter, reliever, or traded. He is out of MiLB options.
To the person that thinks Spring Training will decide whether or not Detwiler is a starter, nothing with Detwiler will get solved in Spring Training just like last year. Detwiler excels in 3 inning stints and especially in facing AA and AAA and fringe Major Leaguers which is the protocol for Spring Training. Maybe they move him to innings 1-3 then he will see some Major Leaguers. Ross's problem is endurance not striking out Major League hitters in a couple innings of work.
The problem with what we saw of Ross in September didn't show what he can do on 5 days rest as they had him sometimes going 6 to 8 games rest between starts. When you are evaluating a pitcher with endurance issues, that really didn't help.
This is why Rizzo is looking for a top of the rotation starter to add so you go JZim, Stras, #3, Lannan, Wang. Peacock and Milone go to AAA and Detwiler goes to the bullpen.
Lets say Rizzo doesn't get a #3 and they don't re-sign Wang, then Detwiler by default probably will be a starter.
MArk'd said:
'Greinke is way overated and suffers from mood disorder. He can't cope at road stadiums. His game against the Cardinals was awful. 6 runs in 6 innings is bad and that was at his home stadium. He can't handle pressure.'
You are right; he won a Cy Young on his good looks alone.
NCognito,
'Who here would trade Zimm even up for Braun? What if you were able to look into the future and see a very good thirdbaseman in Rendon?'
Not completely crazy. If the negotiations to re sign Zim don't go well the Nats will have to maximize his value in a trade.
Grandstander,
'If we can sign CJ Wilson, I'd like to see that payroll bumped to a respectable $100 million.'
I thought the goal was to build a winning team not to spend for the sake of spending.
N. Cognito said...
Who here would trade Zimm even up for Braun? What if you were able to look into the future and see a very good thirdbaseman in Rendon?
October 12, 2011 1:21 PM
It would NEVER happen but I would do that trade for a few reasons. Braun is a Top 5 position player in all of baseball. He twice has signed long-term contracts and the 1st one was for 8 years $5.6 million per year and the remaining 5 at $21 million a year for an average over the 13 years at $11.5 million per year which is probably a $65 million discount since his early years would have been at a lower level. He also has a mutual option for the 2021 season.
I have a feeling that Zim is not willing to give a "home town" discount while Braun accepted a large home town discount which Prince Fielder won't give.
Add to that Braun has been more durable than Zim as Braun averages 155 games per full season vs. Ryan Zimmerman who has averaged 138 games per full season.
Lastly, Braun is a 30/30 guy with HR power, speed, and in the top 3 of Runs Created as he has been a 100 RBI and 100 Runs Scored player for 3 consecutive years.
The tougher question would be, who would you take, Ryan Braun or Albert Pujols?
Feelwood:
Osteen married my barbers daughter - there were pictures of him all over the place and we were crushed when he was traded. Thanks for those memories and that was my 2nd Senators team!!
My first crushing blow was when I found out Eddie Yost smoked!! He could do no wrong in this 8 year olds eyes and when I waited for him after a game and he came out with a cigarette in his mouth I was shocked. I mean, this guy was my hero, he was why I chose 3rd base. Oh well, I have been let down by all my Washington teams since 1950 and feel like 2013 will end all my frustrations (if not earlier).
I was not trying to be negative about Ross, just curious as to why Ryan might have missed him when he was naming Milone and Peacock.
I think Gorzo stays next year but I would hate to pay him 3 million to relieve.
I liked what Greinke said after the trade and would think he is continuing to develop and also continuing to handle his issues as well. He would be a great pickup in my opinion.
JD, you are such a pompous jerk sometimes. Greinke has had 1 exceptional season amongst a career of mediocrity. Do you do much se besides criticize others?
PUT YOUR OWN THOUGHTS OUT THERE IN A FEW PARAGRAPHS SO WE CAN ALL TEAR YOU UP
jd can only comment on others, 1 paragraph at a time. The value he brings here is for the people who enjoy confrontation and every once in a while he is correct on an observation. Let's face it, when all you do is read over other peoples comments and reply to those comments, your value isn't much.
Let's just call jd the editor or pompous jerk which ever fits at the time because usually he is wrong.
jd, for what its worth, when the Nats a year ago tried to get Greinke, I wasn't for it unless the trade was based on giving up prospects commensurate with a #3 starter not the #1 starter some thought Greinke was based on his 2009 performance. Greinke is a 3.82 career ERA. He had one exceptional/amazing year in 2009. It was a career year. What have you done for me lately?
He may have a good FIP, but his ERA and WHIP and Component ERA is a fringe #2 at best and probably a #3.
The other truth which Mark'd said correctly, he has some issues. He has made those issues public. He succumbs to pressure. I don't know how you change a guy who is what he is.
Greinke has had four great seasons and one outstanding one. His career K/BB ratio is well over 3/1 and he's been worth at least 4 wins over replacement for each of the last four seasons. He's as steady and reliable as they come. In 2011 his numbers were probably better than Jordan Zimmermann's, and we're all falling over each other to praise him. To say that he's had "one great season amongst a career of mediocrity" means that you either don't know what "mediocrity" means or you don't know what an average MLB pitcher's numbers look like. Greinke is no Roy Halladay or Felix Hernandez, but he's one of the 20-30 best pitchers in the game.
The comment about his mood disorder affecting his performance on the road is almost as silly. True, he's always performed a little better at home than on the road, but so has almost every other player in baseball. Maybe some small part of that has to do with his mood disorder, maybe it doesn't, but assuming you know that for sure is arrogant. Also, drawing a conclusion about his value based on that is faulty logic even if it's true. The Nats play half their games at home just like every other team. If he pitches good enough at home to have great overall numbers despite struggling somewhat on the road, as a season ticket holder I say I'd love to have him on the mound at Nats Park.
Bowdenball, your are out of your mind too if you think his 2011 was better than Jordan Zimmerman. Look at ERA. Look at WHIP. Yes, there are other factors like bad defense but they aren't close in comparison. His disorder is anxiety not sure if that is mood and there are smarter people than us that say that is why he pitches better at his home stadiums.
I just don't understand why you'd pay a long reliever or a LOOGY $3 million.
The Cardinals are paying Arthur Rhodes $3.9M this year, plus he has an option for next year. (COTS doesn't say whether it's team or player option or how much.) And Rhodes is a true LOOGY, good for one out a game - assuming he gets the guy out, which he didn't the other night. So paying $3M for a pitcher who can do that plus serve as a long reliever/spot starter is by no means unreasonable.
Bowdenball, I enjoy a good BB/K ratio but if it doesn't translate to a commensurately low WHIP and ERA, then it tells me that pitcher probably is over the plate more instead of the edges and getting swing and miss mixed in with some hits and HRs.
If Greinke wasn't getting that 5.3 run support, I think his numbers could look really bad. He has the luxury of pitching generally with leads. That makes a big difference.
Sometimes I think people are mistaking Greinke with Kershaw.
Gallardo is the #1 pitcher on the Brewers staff by the way. That is from the lips of their manager Ron Roenicke. Greinke isn't even the #1 there.
N. Cognito said... Who here would trade Zimm even up for Braun? What if you were able to look into the future and see a very good thirdbaseman in Rendon?
I think that is a rare one that both sides say no to. Braun is a better hitter and weaker fielder at an easier position, so on balance and assuming full health, I think Zim is more valuable. But Zim hasn't been as healthy, so you have to take that into account somehow. But more significantly, Zim is only locked up for two more years, while you have Braun at reasonable cost through his entire prime. Plus each guy is a clear FotF.
I think Braun is great, but I wouldn't do the trade. I think that we will resign Zim. The only guys that I would think about trading Zim for are Votto, Justin Upton or Tulo.
Mark'd,
Take a deep breath. I don't know you and I don't mean to insult you and if you take it that way I'm sorry. The other poster who decided to attack me anonymously and you are in fact incorrect on one thing. I have very often put out my thoughts (right or wrong) in this blog; you really must admit that.
Steve M.
my main objection is to analysis based on a game or three so mentioning that Greinke gave up 6 runs in 6 innings or whatever is irrelevant; Cliff Lee was given a 4-0 lead in game 2 and blew it; is he overrated? I don't think so.
Your argument based on several years of data is a base for discussion (Though my conclusion on Greinke differs from yours based on quality of competition and home ball park). I also think that bringing up his anxiety issues adds nothing to the discussion as he has obviously conquered it to the degree that he is a front line pitcher.
I was not trying to be negative about Ross, just curious as to why Ryan might have missed him when he was naming Milone and Peacock.
You clearly didn't watch the interview with Zimmerman. He didn't name Milone and Peacock. He just mentioned Stras, Zimm and Lannan who BTW happen to be the only locks for next year's rotation, barring trade. Wang is still a FA at this point, and Detwiler may or may not make it.
I agree with the commentary that Greinke is somewhere between a 2-3 (and I probably lean closer to a 2 right now). He is a pretty good pitcher, but has fallen off some from his peak of a few years ago. He strikes me as a similar pitcher to Matt Garza. If you look at their 2011 stats, they are almost right on top of each other in most categories, except Greinke was a little worse ( or unlucky) in HR rate and BABIP. They also both have that feel to me of guys with really good stuff that somehow don't quite get the most out of it.
Not an ace on a playoff team, but still a pretty good guy to have in your top 3. I wouldn't sell the farm for him, though. Maybe Theo will trade us Garza instead.
Wally,
I think almost all of us would like nothing better than to hear that Zim has been extended for 5 extra years or so but the hypothetical question is what if that doesn't happen? do you let him walk for a draft choice? do you wait until he is month away from free agency and the team has little leverage?
This is why I think Rizzo must deal with this quietly this off season so he knows once and for all what the parameters of the deal would look like and if it's doable.
Wally,
Greinke also pitches in Miller park which is one of baseball's launching pads. I for one would love to have him on my team.
JD - I don't think it has to be addressed this year. I would love it to be, but I think that we get the latitude of one more year. It has to be addressed by the end of next year's offseason, and if we can't sign him by then, I would trade him.
So, what is the feeling on trading for Ricky Nolasco? Lots of rumors that the Marlins will look to trade him. He is the poster child for the seeming inability to get the most out of his abilities.
The last three years, his ERA has underperformed his FIP/xFIP by a run or more (but the FIPs have been very good). Great control and K/BB rates, although K rate down this year (but not a real drop in velo; maybe pitch to contact change?).
I think that he is better than our guys after JZ and SS, but not materially so.
Feelwood - I CLEARLY DID WATCH AND LISTEN
went back because I wanted to be sure but at 2:52 of the video he mentions our young pitchers and did not mention Detwiler - go pick on Kilgore if you want to get your negative fix -
JD - I think we differ on Greinke only by a matter of degree. I still like him, just don't love him (as much as I used to). By the way, to me, he has put aside any performance issues relating to his disorder, so I don't discount him for that. I think his home/road splits are within the norm of most players split. What is the most that you would give up for him?
By the way #2 - I think that Stras is one of the top 5 starting pitchers in baseball right now. I mean, he doesn't have the history of Halladay, Verlander, Lee & CC, and until he puts up a few 200 inning seasons in a row, I will be worried about injuries, but if we were playing the Phils in a 1 game, winner take all game, and it was Stras v. Halladay, I would feel like we were evenly matched at SP. Just felt like getting that out.
Cliff Lee is top 7 in the entire MLB. What's your point on mentioning him and a 3.88 ERA guy. If people weren't so enamored with Won/Loss records and K/9, the disagreements would be much less.
I agree, start with ERA first, maybe ERC, and WHIP allowing for GiDP and you find your top pitchers.
I see Greinke in top 75 pitchers. That's how I see it. I don't care much what he did 2 years ago as an anomaly or a statistical flaw which is why I also looked at his career numbers. He is a food pitcher.
I have been watching Ryan Braun a lot during the playoffs and I see many similarities with him and Zim. That face of the franchise role requires not just mad baseball skills but that optimistic, level poise in front of the media. He handled that couple of minutes very well and I would not read anything into any names he did not mention. I don't know how Lannan got to be a goat somehow, but he is really not a bad pitcher all things considered. So he's not a superstar - what percentage of players are superstars? His stats are just fine, solid, he's a lefty and it does seem to be true that lefties take longer to bloom. Give the guy some offensive support and all of a sudden he'll look like a really good pitcher. He is one of our guys and has paid a lot of dues on our team - I will always love him for his first start when he broke Chase Utley's hand and got tossed out of the game!
Steve M;
A good BB/K ratio is pretty much all a pitcher can control. The only other thing is HRs. It's been proven time and time again, and everyone who has tried to disprove it has failed. If those don't translate into a good WHIP and ERA that's simply a question of luck, defense and other external factors. If you're starting with ERA and WHIP as your favored pitching stats, you're looking at it backwards.
I don't mean to suggest that Greinke is a world-beater, but he's closer to that than he is to being a "mediocre" pitcher as some have suggested. He's a very good pitcher and has been for several years now. A perfect fit for the Nationals who have Strasburg and Zimmermann already on board for the foreseeable future.
Feelwood - I CLEARLY DID WATCH AND LISTEN
went back because I wanted to be sure but at 2:52 of the video he mentions our young pitchers and did not mention Detwiler - go pick on Kilgore if you want to get your negative fix -
Right. He did not mention Detwiler. But he also did not mention Milone or Peacock, which you said he did. That was my point, which you missed entirely.
Wally,
I wouldn't look to trade for Greinke because I think we are going to have a killer rotation based solely on home grown talent. I would invest elsewhere; center field, bench.
I am with Steve M. in that we should upgrade the rotation short term if we can get an upgrade without committing to more than 2 years and without breaking the bank (I am not completely sold on Buehrle, I like Wandy, I hate Marquis).
I think it's a serious mistake to think the Nats young pitchers; Detwiler, Milone and Peacock are going to be as good or better than they were at the end of last season. The League is going to learn them and they're probably going to get knocked around a bit. They may or may not be able to make the adjustments, and even if they do, no telling how long it will take.
As long as they approach the game with fear and ignorance, they should do okay.
It's late in the afternoon but comparisons of Lannan to Claude Osteen and Mike McCormick make me barf. Osteen threw up huge 240+ innings w/ the Senators and continued w/ the Dodgers. Not a big strikeout guy, he had probably the best control in the ML. He was 34 years old before he had a Lannan-type season (9-11, 3.80 ERA, 1.5 WHIP). Lannan couldn't have carried Osteen's jock. McCormick pitched several years w/ the Giants, including one as an All-Star, and a couple with the Orioles, before coming to Washington. Then he got traded back to SF and a team w/ Willie Mays, Willie McCovey and Jim Ray Hart. That would make a Cy Young winner out of almost anyone. McCormick didn't grow up into anything in SF that he wasn't already when he came to DC. The closest Lannan's gonna get to Cy Young is buying a ticket in Cooperstown.
Stop making Lannan something he's not. Meaning, anything other than barely serviceable at the bottom of the rotation, on his good days.
maybe compare Lannan to Jim Shellenback or Barry Moore. Here's another two.....George Brunet and Frank Bertania. These are better comparisons
NatsJack,
but Wang is already better than Marquis. If you are not improving the team why bother?
Feelwood - Let me be really slow and simple because I think that is what you need
HE MENTIONS MILONE AND PEACOCK AT 2:52 OF THE VIDEO, BUT DOES NOT MENTION DETWILER
any questions - ask Kilgore
I'm with NatsJack on Marquis. He won't cost you a thing except money. No Draft Picks and you have a 7 inning pitcher who wins April to July. Guess what, it doesn't solve August September and the Postseason so you make a July 31st trade and do what Detroit did with Fister, Philly did in 2010 with Oswalt, Milwaukee did in 2008 with Sabathia so ACE upgrades are done every year on July 31st.
The Nats would be foolish to chase CJ Wilson and Buehrle. If Buehrle falls in your lap, then great. If not, my next choice would be to trade for Wandy Rodriguez if you can get him in fair trade which would be give them no more than Detwiler + Bernadina. Next choice is Marquis for short-term. After that Edwin Jackson could be a good one.
That allows Rizzo to concentrate on using trade bait to get Alex Gordon or fallback to Coco Crisp.
Want to get back to writing about baseball and not worrying about useless attacks on my hearing abilities.
If Rizzo is going after a number one I think Cain is a top choice. Not sure what the Giants need.
If he is looking for a #3 or # 4 I think we have those in our system but I would love to have Buehrle and would not even mind seeing Marquis back but I do agree that Wang just might be better than both. Problem with Wang is you are not entirely sure he is back.
We have done all this talking about pitching when I still think its our offense that needs improvement. Just a thought.
By they way, Feel, I don't mind if you disagree with a thought or comment but don't tell me I clearly didn't watch something that I clearly did. Guess your clarity could use some polish.
Now people want Marquis, and Lannan, too, I suppose. Marquis was one of the clubhouse jerks who drove Riggleman into retirement, solely because he knew his IP was his ticket out of town and couldn't stand being pulled when he was being shelled. So you really want to bring him back, and go through exactly the same thing next May/June when he wants to go somewhere else? Worst scenario, NatsJack, is you intend to rent him for four months and then can't get rid of him, which was almost the case this year.
I can't take it. I'm signing off for a couple of days.
Bowdenball, if BB-K/9 ratios were the #1 then Milone would be a superstar.
I agree WHIP, ERA the Sabre ERC (component ERA) are there for a reason. BB-K/9 is great but I like WHIP, BB/9. Strikeouts are nice but to me it is guys on base WHIP and guys scoring ERA, and ERC will take out some variables like bad bullpens and neutralizes fielding as much as you can.
Halladay, Verlander, Kershaw, Weaver, Hamels, Lee, Lincecum, CC, Kennedy, Beckett, Shields, etc.
Greinke ranks 34th in ERC. I will take that as the rating I go with. Gallardo is 41st in ERC. I heard last night they said Gallardo is Milwaukee's #1. Strasburg and JZim to me are #1 tandems. JZim is #22 in ERC. JZim is 20th in WHIP and Greinke is 31st in WHIP. JZim is 21st ERA, Wandy is 37th, Gallardo is 40th and Greinke is 58th. Jordan Zimmermann is 11th in BB/K9 and Greinke is 6th.
Bowdenball, if you think Greinke is better than JZim based on 2011, not sure what you are looking at unless you think STRIKEOUTS is the cool stat. You must love Brandon Morrow too as he is 2nd in K/9 and Brandon McCarthy is 4th in BB/K9.
So by your thinking Brandon McCarthy and Brandon Morrow are better than Verlander and Hamels, right?
Theophilus said...
"Marquis was one of the clubhouse jerks who drove Riggleman into retirement"
Don't stay away to long. I'd like you to provide references for your above statement.
sjm308 said...
"If Rizzo is going after a number one I think Cain is a top choice. Not sure what the Giants need."
After trading Cain, I would guess a new GM.
You can re-sign Wang. Just don't put all your eggs in his basket. His shoulder injury has a high risk of recurring injury be it stiffness, soreness, or something worse.
You need backup plans.
To the posters, when you say someone is better than someone else, please back it up with stats not some lazy approach to just saying it. Thanks to Gonat for putting up Greinke stats. Its distressing to read posts like Bowdenball that are based on one stat Walk/Strikeout ratio which the true point Tom Milone is the Ace of Aces! Here's Bowdenballs quote "In 2011 his numbers were probably better than Jordan Zimmermann's, and we're all falling over each other to praise him."
Anonymous8 said...
"To the posters, when you say someone is better than someone else, please back it up with stats not some lazy approach to just saying it."
Should also avoid comparing stats from two different eras. My initial reaction to OSteen-Lannan is that Osteen is demonstrably better, but Osteen pitched in an era where starters pitched many more ainnings than they do now and scoring was significantly lower.
A good but imperfect way around the different eras is to compare where the pitchers ranked in their respective years/eras.
gonat:
those are great stats and thanks for taking the time to post them all - I kinda have a new respect for how good Zimmnn really was and it gets me even more exicited. If we use those stats and figure that SS will be as good or even better than JZimm next year then why do we need a #1 from another team? I still think offense is what needs to be improved and I guess LaRoche will hopefully provide some of that along with a healthy Zimm but that leadoff spot still nags at me.
NatsJack - thanks!
NCog: while I agree that stats do make for a convincing argument, what about us old guys that just love baseball and want to comment about what they think they see? I think this blog has room for all kinds and I love visiting here and will continue to try and learn from what you guys post.
N.Cognito, good point on the different eras. Also, Lannan is a rare bird on an island of his own. Some love him, some hate him. I have a love/hate relationship with him myself. He makes a 3 run 6 inning outing difficult to love and a 2 run 5 inning game sometimes great to love. I think its that he isn't overpowering. If he is part of 2011 great, if not great. Too much time spent by people bashing him. His ending stats say he was a #3 or #4 in 2011.
Tigers/Rangers in rain delay. So they are still in the pre-game, Chris Rose calls the National League series a "meeting of Aces" describing Gallardo and Carpenter. Pierzynski calls Gallardo one of the best kept secrets with a great deceptive curveball. Karros says Carpenter is an Ace again.
The other interesting story is that when Napoli was run over at home in the Tampa playoff series that he swallowed his "chew". They said he hasn't been the same since. That's the 1st I have heard of that. Note to catchers: Don't dip while you are behind the plate.
sjm, when you get Joe Maddon telling Rizzo how filthy Jordan Zimmermann is, you know you have someone special. His stats are sick. If he didn't have those 3 frustration HRs on his record, those inherited runs that scored and that one game where that flyball to Bernadina got lost in the sun that scored 2 runs while he had 2 outs. He would have staying in the upper 2's for ERA, how crazy would that have been?
Those 2 runs that could have been outs are the difference between a 2.98 ERA and a 3.18. Do you remember that game?
Morse and Jordan Zimmermann were in the Top 10 of must under-rated players in 2011.
I vote no on Marquis. Riggs was in the wrong in Baltimore, but Marquie was worse, showing up his boss in public, etc. Also didn't like they way he handled himself in Arizona. His record was based on a lot of luck.
If you have seen the articles about the Red Sox, sheesh, I am glad we don't have that kind of trouble here.
My opinion is that Nats are going to break hearts in 2012, close enough to smell the playoffs but not make it, and 2013 and 2014 will be our years.
Yes, Zim mentioned Peacock and Milone... I heard it with my own ears--both of them.
My apologies. So he did mention Milone and Peacock at the end when he was reciting the phone book of young players, but neglected to mention Detwiler. I got confused with the earlier part where he was talking about starters and included Lannan but didn't include Detwiler, which some people were taking exception to here. Mea culpa.
But I do know this, sjm308. He never mentions Kilgore. Does that bother you? Why?
Theophilus said...
"Marquis was one of the clubhouse jerks who drove Riggleman into retirement"
If that's true, then not only should they re-sign Marquis, they should hold a day in his honor and retire his number.
NatsLady, close enough and not make it in 2012 is still another year of improvement. The year is 2013 with no excuses. Full years of Strasburg and JZim and my belief that Peacock will be ready for prime time then. Purke may also be quick to the Majors in the same Matt Moore was with the Rays. Would love to see one of the recent Draft Picks help the Nats at the end of 2013.
Any Rendon updates?
Who wants Marquis? He is my 4th or 5th choice but you can't throw out what he accomplished at his time in Washington. He is a very good pitcher in the 1st 1/2 of the season and he is not a Type A or Type B Free Agent. You need guys to get you going and upgrade at July 31st.
I think you take a chance on Wang and I agree "Enter With Caution". Don't want to rush Peacock and Milone to the Majors.
It must be the weather. So much fighting
Hey - anybody following the reports about the RedSox pitchers drinking and ordering take-out in the clubhouse during games? I am pretty sure that I have seen all of ours in the dugout on their off-days. Well - in the National League you might get called upon to bunt! I remember once a manager could not find someone - maybe Zim on an off day - to pinch hit, but found him in the batting cages. Or is that a euphemism for " playing video games"? No wonder they fell apart.
Baseballswami, I read today that the ex-Red Sox manager may have been taking pain meds and dealing with a marital mess.
feel:
if you really want to know what bothered me, and actually drove me from the comments section at NJ, it was your constant harping about his writing style and editing errors. My joy is in reading about baseball, not carping about mistakes which is why I was happy to point out yours. You will never be convinced that Kilgore is a good writer and that is fine, you are obviously entitled to your opinion and I disagree with it, but its not for this site to have that debate. Thanks for the mea culpa and keep the great posts coming about other things. Your opinion on baseball is appreciated.
Good story on Pudge and his son:
http://www.news-press.com/article/20111012/SPORTS/110120329/1075/School-board-should-courage-offer-next-super-more-pay/All-Star-ready-son-shine?odyssey=nav%7Chead
http://www.rolaidsreliefman.com/pitcherdetail.aspx?id=8618
Storen in 3rd for NL Fireman award coming in ahead of Kimbrel and behind Axford and Putz.
Negative ions, perhaps, or the heartbreak of Nats Baseball Deprivation Syndrome.
Mark'd said...
It must be the weather. So much fighting
October 12, 2011 6:39 PM
You will never be convinced that Kilgore is a good writer and that is fine, you are obviously entitled to your opinion and I disagree with it, but its not for this site to have that debate
Then why are you the one raising a debate about Kilgore on this site? I'm not doing it. You're the one that brought up his name here, not me.
sjm 308, just a little aside--don't let Eddie Yost's smoking dampen your image of him. In the first place, practically all ball players smoked back then. But more importantly, I got to know Eddie pretty well back in the '70's and he is a wonderful gentleman. Lives in Massachusetts today and despite some health problems (not surprising at his age), from what I am told by people who know, he remains as warm and gracious as ever. By the way, I don't remember him smoking in the '70's.
Yes, a great deal more of the players smoked back in the 70's. Remember the picture of Dick Allen on the cover of SI with a butt dangling from his lips?
I wonder how the landscape will change with Theo Epstein going to the Chicago Cubs. Can he be aggressive with the Cubs limits on payroll? The Cubs are many pieces from being able to compete. One real interesting bench role player who the Nats got to know well this season was Reed Johnson. All he seemed to do was get clutch hits off of the Nats.
He was a guy I was eyeballing as a bench role guy as he is a Free Agent. I know Davey likes the HR hitter off of the bench. Besides Laynce Nix, there aren't too many of those out there and Nix was hurt 1/2 the season. Gomes was horrible off the bench and had a worse pinch hitting record than Matt Stairs if you can believe that.
The Nats have a few players under team control that can be bench players in Flores, Marrero, Lombardozzi, and Bernadina. Ankiel, Gomes Pudge, and Nix are all Free Agents.
I think you need 1 player with MiLB options that you can move back and forth if needed so I think the Nats have to keep either Marrero or Lombo. They can go with Flores or trade him and look to retain Pudge or get the lefty in Brian Schneider who is a Free Agent.
Bernadina has no options so they either keep him or trade him.
Then there is the question of Davey having a short bench so he keeps an extra pitcher.
Does Bixler or Antonelli fit into the bench picture at all? Bixler showed he can play multiple positions off the bench in the infield and outfield although he didn't show he could hit and while he was fast just never could get that steal. Antonelli I understand is a MiLB Free Agent so he may be gone anyway.
Coco Crisp can be that one guy who can play 140 games and also come off the bench but can the Nats afford to pay a guy like that $5.5 million not to start?
For those jabbing about Kilgore, he scores with this article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/post/how-stephen-strasburg-can-learn-from-justin-verlander/2011/10/13/gIQAUkBPhL_blog.html?wprss=nationals-journal
This is a GOLDEN QUOTE with Verlander talking about Strasburg:
“He throws 100 with a hammer and a changeup,” Verlander said Wednesday, during a brief conversation following his news conference. “There’s really nobody else. Comparison-wise, it’s him and I right now.”
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