Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Nats who's hot/who's not - 7/24

Photo by USA Today
By Michael Huberman
CSNwashington.com

Record: 0-5
Team slash: .212/.266/.345
Team ERA: 4.89
Runs per game: 2.2
Opponent runs per game: 5.2
Opponent slash: .280/.333/.451

HOT:

Jayson Werth, OF – 5-17/4 HR/6 RBI/.400 OBP/1.000 SLG

After homering twice in the Nationals’ 9-2 loss to the Dodgers on Sunday, Werth added two more, a pair of two-run shots, Monday night against the Pirates. Werth’s been the team’s best hitter in July, posting a slash of .369/.449/.667, with at least one hit in 14 of 19 games played. Now if only his teammates could come around and join him.

Gio Gonzalez, SP – 0-0/0.00/6 IP/2 H/11 SO

Since allowing five earned runs in four innings of work against Atlanta on April 30, Gonzalez has submitted quality starts in 13 of 14 appearances, with 89 strikeouts to 31 walks. After that April 30 start, Gonzalez was 2-2 with a 5.34 ERA, but when he starts Thursday against the Pirates he’ll be 7-3 with a sterling 2.89 ERA.

Ross Ohlendorf, SP – 0-0/3.00 ERA/6 IP/2 ER/6 SO

After putting together two solid starts in a row, where he gave up two earned runs in eleven innings while striking out 14, Ohlendorf’s surprise season continued on Sunday, with his strong performance in relief of an ineffective Jordan Zimmermann against the Dodgers. For a player who signed a minor-league deal with the team, a 2-0 record with a 2.03 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 26 2/3 innings is pretty impressive. 

NOT: 

Jordan Zimmermann, SP – 0-1/31.50 ERA/2 IP/7 ER/2 ER

After two excruciating losses to the Dodgers, Zimmermann picked a tough time to turn in the worst performance of his young career. Both Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez took Zimmermann deep, as the right-hander needed 58 pitches to get through two rough innings. Whether his lingering neck injury was a factor remains to be seen, but the Nationals will need Zimmermann to return to his usual form if they wish to make up ground in the NL East.

Dan Haren, SP – 0-1/9.00 ERA/5 IP/5 ER/6 K/2 HR 

After putting together two solid starts in a row, where he gave up two earned runs in eleven innings while striking out 14, Haren’s nightmare of a season continued Monday night against the Pirates, when he allowed two two-run homers to Nationals killer Andrew McCutchen in just five innings of work. Despite the rough start though, Haren has now struck out 25 in his last 19 1/3 innings. 

Anthony Rendon, 2B – 1-20/0 XBH/4 SO/1 BB

Rendon’s just 1-for-20 (.050) with four strikeouts since the team came out of the All-Star break. Pre-Midsummer Classic, the rookie was 13-for-47 (.276) with three home runs and eight runs scored. Rendon’s defense has also been uneven, as he made a crucial error on a would-be inning-ending double play in last night’s 5-1 loss to Pittsburgh. 

Rafael Soriano, RP – 0-1/4.50 ERA/2 IP/2 H/1 HR


Player A has a 4.83 ERA in 41 innings pitched, and he’s given up 46 hits with 41 strikeouts and 12 walks. Player B has a 2.36 ERA in 42 innings pitched, and he’s given up 41 hits with 31 strikeouts and eight walks. Player B is Rafael Soriano, fourth in the National League with 25 saves. Player A is former closer Drew Storen, in the midst of season where he’s been a major liability out of the Nats' bullpen.

49 comments:

JayB said...

Storen to AAA please

hiramhover said...

Chase, appreciate it, but that's a weird write up for Soriano. You list him as "not hot," but then the text of that entry just trashes Storen by comparison to Soriano's season #s instead of his last week.

A DC Wonk said...

Wednesday's tidbits:

- On June 22nd — one month ago — the Dodgers were 11 games under .500 and last in the NL West (31-42). Now they are 5 games over .500 and in first. (52-47)

- Reds played a "home" game against the Giants in SF.

- Astros until yesterday were 0-10 against the A's. Last night they broke the streak, winning on a walk-off error. Grant Balfour, who blew the save (and lost the game), was 26-for-26 in save appearances this year (and 44 consucutive dating to April of _last_ year)

(More details: Men on 1st and second, and Balfour threw yet another pitch in the dirt. A stumbling Jose Altuve was caught between first and second base. A's catcher Derek Norris, blocked the pitch, and tried to throw out Altuve, but the throw went into right field. Jonathan Villar, who was on second base, scored the winning run on a headfirst slide on the errant throw.)

A DC Wonk said...

JayB said...

Storen to AAA please

Yeah -- that'll solve our #1 problem (lack of hitting), right!

JayB said...

nope but it would give us a few more wins and a sense of accountability on the team (like when Rizzo finally took Davey's Danny toy away)

SonnyG10 said...

JayB said...
nope but it would give us a few more wins and a sense of accountability on the team (like when Rizzo finally took Davey's Danny toy away)
July 24, 2013 12:49 PM


Nope to you JayB. It will not give us more wins and Rizzo has already taken away a major asset to Davey when he fired Eckstein.

JayB said...

If Drew had not pitched this year and we used anyone except Drew we would have move wins.

IT IS CALLED WAR and Drew is worse than any replacement player...by a large amount.

A DC Wonk said...

In June and July, Storen pitched in 22 games. He gave up earned runs in just four of them. _That_ gets you sent to AAA?

And, of course, who's the guy that's going to replace him and do better? Some mythical AA player as you suggested yesterday?

The Nats are in second last place in the NL for a number of offensive categories. Demoting a useful reliever ain't gonna help that so much.

JayB said...

He has a negative WAR and that is just a fact. Any Wavier wire guy is better. His ERA is like 5 right?

JayB said...

From Hiram for Bowdedball........................from prior post.................................. You can find the looking strikeout #s at baseball reference (look at the L/SO and L/SO% columns, 3-4 over from right):

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2013-pitches-batting.shtml

Nats are tied for third in the total # of backward Ks, and lead all MLB in the % of Ks that are backward.

bowdenball said...

I don't know what you're taking about, JayB. Storen has a 0.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts in 100 innings pitched this year. He's been amazing.

Now, it's true that I didn't look that up before I posted it. But it's my understanding that you're not all that concerned with things like "facts" and "truth" in posts around here, right?

(Oh, by the way I did look up Drew's actual WAR, even though WAR is not really a reliable statistic for relievers. Fangraphs has him at 0.0 this year, hardly "worse than any replacement player ... by a large amount. But those are just facts. Guys like you and me have no use for those, right!)

A DC Wonk said...

even though WAR is not really a reliable statistic for relievers.

I think that's true. Same for ERA. The reason is that, for a reliever, it often doesn't matter if you give up 1 run or 4 runs. Especially if it's a tie game in the 9th, and your own team can't hit well.

Which is why I prefer my own measure: how many performances, and how many of them were zero earned runs. Not very sophistacted, but it's a quick way to get to a rough bottom line.

As I noted above: In June and July, Storen had 18 of 22 appearances with no earned runs. That's pretty good actually (although I know that doesn't take into account his last game, nor his own errors, nor letting guys steal bases).

But, still -- that's pretty decent, and I'm not sure we have any minor league guys that can do demonstrably better.

But zooming out into the bigger picture: the problem is we can't hit! Demoting the usual-7th-inning reliever is not going to do much.

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

Use Soriano in situations where there's no potential for untucking and his numbers would be worse than Storen's.

There is a reason to send Storen to AAA, though. He needs to learn (or re-learn) two things: how to hold runners, and how to work faster. He's turned into more of a human rain delay than Jesus Colome. The other night, after already uncorking one wild pitch that fortunately didn't score the runner, he came set, stood there for an eternity and then threw another one that did. He needs to quit thinking so much and just pitch. He's not that far off, he just needs a minor league mental rehab assignment like they gave Lannan a few years ago. He has options, Mattheus is coming back. Now is the time.

Tcostant said...

Who's hot: Any team that plays the Nationals right now.

Who's not hot: The Nationals

Sec. 1D 10T, My Sofa said...

Chase, appreciate it, but that's a weird write up for Soriano.

Actually, that's Michael Huberman writing. Chase only posted it here.

TexNat said...

Wonk, the problem with your metric (though generally interesting) is that it doesn't catch how relievers are doing with regard to inherited base runners, which, of course, is a big part of their job.

TexNat said...

Feel wood, I agree he needs to work on those things, but given the status of the season, he might as well just work on them in the bigs.

Tcostant said...

JayB said...
Storen to AAA please

Me: I noted on one of the other boards that Mark said on the Sports Reports (980am DC) last night that Ryan Mattheus will be added as the "26th man" on Friday for the doubleheader and he is guessing that Storen will be sent down on Saturday to get back to 25 men on the roster.

A DC Wonk said...

TexNat said...

Wonk, the problem with your metric (though generally interesting) is that it doesn't catch how relievers are doing with regard to inherited base runners, which, of course, is a big part of their job.

Yep -- granted. But that's harder to find.

Further, there's a big difference if, say, a guy comes on to relieve with bases loaded and nobody out (in which case surrendering one run is probably indicative of a fairly decent appearance) and coming on to relieve with a guy on first and two out (in which case letting in the run is a complete failure).

As I said: it's a quick and rough measure. But I think it's better than ERA (where one bad outing distorts).

JayB said...

bowden ball you are better than that. I posted something I knew was dam close and I proved it. Face it.....

JayB said...

Data changes..it could be right again real soon...it was at one point when I read it and I watch enough baseball to know the Nats had made zero progress since them

bowdenball said...

No. You posted something that was wrong. Face it. And when you post something that is false as truth, "it was kind of close" is not a defense. Nor is "it might be close at some unforeseen point in the future."

Also, still waiting on your support for your other statement, that the Nats "lead the league in ground balls with the bases loaded" statement. Since the Nats are 22nd in slugging with the bases loaded and have only two GIDPs with the bases loaded on the entire season, I seriously doubt the veracity of that one, too. Of course, the mere fact that the name JayB preceded it is reason enough to doubt its veracity.

Now, would you like me to move on to your latest lie, that Storen is "worse than a replacement player ... by a large amount" falsehood? Because I can do that one too if you haven't had enough.

JayB said...

On Storen it does not seem to matter what I think because Rizzo seems to think Drew needs some AAA work too.

JayB said...

WAR of negative .9 is what I see...that is really bad no?

JayB said...

Ok King Bowden.....even though you have no pants...you win....Nats are great and never make any mistakes. Davey is awesome manager and Rizzo has it all figured out. Can't wait for October baseball and see them win it all!

bowdenball said...

Where do you see that, JayB? I see a WAR of 0.0 at Fangraphs and -0.7 at Baseball Reference for Storen.

Of course, -0.9 wins, -0.7 wins and 0.0 wins are ALL better than -1 wins, as any sixth grader can tell you. But you said that replacing Storen "would give us a few more wins." So even if we accept your number, which is lower than any number I saw, you were still wrong. Again.

bowdenball said...

I make plenty of mistakes in life, JayB. What I never ever do is lie to strangers on a message board to make their favorite team and its players appear worse than they are. Because I am not a troll.

Nats106 said...

bowdenball said...
No. You posted something that was wrong. Face it. And when you post something that is false as truth, "it was kind of close" is not a defense

No? Then what does Angel Hernandez say to defend his atrocious umpiring?

Nats106 said...

Sorry-another bad joke by me.

JayB said...

so your point is details are more important than content? OK enjoy that point of view. I'll stay with mine.

JD said...


bowdenball,

I am disappointed in you. Jayb lives for this stuff. He used to post like crazy when the Nats were a doormat, then he went silent for most of last year but he immediately came out swinging the minute the Nats lost a couple of games in the playoffs.

Now with the Nats in a slump he is in his glory and no don't expect him to worry about little things like facts.

A DC Wonk said...

JayB said...

Ok King Bowden.....even though you have no pants...you win....Nats are great and never make any mistakes. Davey is awesome manager and Rizzo has it all figured out.


Are you _trying_ to lose even more credibility? Anyone who's been following knows that bowdenball wasn't saying that at all.

Textbook case on How to Lose Influence.

Section 222 said...

Feel, I am totally with you on Drew becoming a human rain delay. I've commented on this several times, and just be sure I wasn't being unfair, I got out the stop watch on my iPhone while watching the end of Game 4 on that off day during the All Star break. I timed the time in between pitches of Clip, Storen, and Lance Lynn. I started when the pitcher received the ball back from the catcher, and stopped when he threw the pitch. I didn't bother with the first pitch to each batter.

Lance Lynn took about 15 seconds in between those pitches to Werth generally. Clip, who is not a fast worker, was about 18-20 seconds usually. And Storen? 25-30 seconds usually, and several times well more than 30 seconds. And this was an outing in which he pitched very well and had only one baserunner.

Zzzzzzzzz.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

If Ross O is hot (which I have no problem with) Stras shoud be hot too. Also would put Clip in the hot.

JD said...


For the record I don't believe in 'punishing' ball players with minor league stints. Store should be sent down only if there is someone better than him to take his spot and in this case I don't believe that this is even close to being the case.

Storen is exactly the type of pitcher who if the Nats give up on will find himself and be a big star elsewhere. I think he took game 5 very hard and he was further 'punched' in the gut with the Soriano signing which to me was superfluous and if it cost the organization a lost opportunity with a young player then that's too bad.

JD said...



222,

I agree with you that Drew takes too long and thinks too much and I am sure this is aggravating to the defense and I think is a by product of confidence lost . This is something Mc.Catty should have addressed by now.

A DC Wonk said...

I agree with you that Drew takes too long and thinks too much and I am sure this is aggravating to the defense and I think is a by product of confidence lost

But, wait, 222's estimate was from _before_ Game 5. What confidence loss did he have at that point?

Section 222 said...

Thanks JD. I disagree with you about Soriano though. The only reason Soriano is superfluous is that we're such an awful team. If we were in the thick of a pennant race, you'd be happy to have a reliable closer. And if Drew couldn't handle the demotion and allowed it to affect his performance, then he didn't have it in him to play that role anyway.

I'm with you on sending him down though. Do it only if you think he's the odd man out when Matthues returns. Doesn't seem to me that Davey uses Abad in enough high leverage situations to warrant keeping him around. Does Abad have options? If so, he's the one who should go. Unless Stammen is hurt...

NatsLady said...

I agree that Storen may have taken Game 5 hard and personal (and if you saw the Tweets!). But I DON'T think the Soriano signing was a reflection on Storen, and if he took it that way then he was mistaken.

Rizzo took a look at the back end of his bullpen and saw an injured pitcher (Storen) and a guy who wasn't QUITE capable of closing for a full season, a guy who got both predictable and worn out as the season when on (Clip).

No one knew how Storen would recover from having the chips removed. Pitchers with elbow problems become sub-par or continue having issues ALL THE TIME. Rizzo had the money to spend, and the desire for a solid backend of the bullpen.

JD said...


Wonk,

Then I stand corrected as should Drew's routine.

JD said...


I just don't think Soriano is anything special.

MrsB loves the Nats said...

I actually think DJ uses Storen wrong... Seems he is always going to him, when Storen is struggling right now..

I never understand why if Storen is struggling against LHBs and Storen has LHPs to face those LHBs, why he doesnt do the switch.

But that is a bigger issue that I have with DJ and his managing...

I like Sotren and I think he has the stuff (which is better than Soriano) to be a great pitcher... He is obviously lacking something... Just not sure what...

NatsLady said...

JD, that's fine. We didn't need "anything special." We needed another piece for the reasons cited above. Soriano has been approximately as advertised, above-average in the closer job. He is not the reason we are where we are.

hiramhover said...

Sofa

Thanks for the correction about the author of the initial post, and my apologies to Chase and Michael Huberman. I was down in the comments and only looked up as far as the "Posted by" line.

Section 222 said...

NL, I'm kind of with you. The signing of Soriano WAS a reflection on Storen, but not all about Game 5. It was a judgment by Rizzo, correct in my view, that Storen was too green, despite his very good 2011 and pretty good 2012 to be a reliable closer on a team that was going for all the marbles. Game 5 put that issue in stark relief, but it wasn't the only data marker.

Storen had already come back from the elbow chips thing in August of last year and seemed healthy at the end of the season, so I don't think that played into the decision.

I also think Rizzo imagined a very, very strong back end of the bullpen, with two lights out setup guys who could be alternated for much of the season as part of Davey's A and B bullpens, and used in the 7th and 8th in big games. Unfortunately, Storen didn't hold up his end, and Mattheus is an idiot so the A and B pens protocol never really got going. Now we just have the usual division between guys we use when we're losing and guys we use when we're tied or winning.

Ishmael said...

Storen can't be the Human Rain Delay, because that moniker is reserved for Mike Hargrove! But I agree that Drew needs to work more quickly. with that and

Tcostant said...

If they do sent Storen down, I hope they don't let him close there. Much better would have him work on coming into innings with runners on base; since that is what he'll need to do if/when he gets to the bigs.

A DC Wonk said...

Tc -- agreed. Work on holding runners!

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...


JD said...


For the record I don't believe in 'punishing' ball players with minor league stints. Store should be sent down only if there is someone better than him to take his spot and in this case I don't believe that this is even close to being the case.


When Mattheus comes back there will be someone better or at least equal to take his place. And it's not 'punishing' Storen to send him down to work on stuff any more than it was 'punishing' Espinosa to send him down this year or Lannan to send him down in 2010. In Lannan's case he came back better after the time in AA. The jury is still out on Espinosa. Storen can go down now and have a good 5 or 6 weeks to work on the deficiencies in his game before coming back up in September, hopefully better. Meanwhile, having Mattheus rather than Storen in August is not going to help or hurt the Nats in what's left of the pennant race.

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