Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Nats who's hot/who's not - 7/10

Photo by USA Today
Record: 4-3
Runs per game: 6.0
Opponent runs per game: 4.6
Team ERA: 4.50
Team average: .298
Team average against: .281

HOT:

Jayson Werth, OF - .435 BA, 10 H, HR, 4 RBI, 6 R, 4 BB, SB

Werth may have come up short at the end of the Nats' loss on Tuesday night in Philly, but overall he had a tremendous week at the plate. The Nats' outfielder now has hits in his last six games and 10 total during that span. Werth seems to be thriving while batting fifth in the order. In the five hole he is hitting .289 this season with a .904 OPS in 11 games. He has hit primarily at second this season, but has a much better on-base percentage when he hits either fourth or fifth in the lineup.

Tyler Clippard, RP - 3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0.333 WHIP

Clippard continued his season of reliability this past week with three more scoreless outings, all coming late in Nationals' wins. He has still only allowed one run since the month of May and now sits with a 2.15 ERA on the year. In two games against the Padres, Clippard notched two strikeouts in perfect innings, earning his 15th hold of the season on July 5. With Drew Storen's season continuing to devolve and Craig Stammen's recent struggles, Clippard has been by far the Nats' best right-handed reliever not named Rafael.

Wilson Ramos, C - 5 G, .438 BA, 7 H, HR, 9 RBI, 2 R, 2 2B

Ramos returned to help the Nationals have their best offensive week of the season. The young catcher has hits in four of his five games since returning on July 4 with nine RBI and just three strikeouts. Ramos is hitting .297 on the year through just 19 games, but has already reminded the Nats why they like him more at the plate than Kurt Suzuki. The latter is now hitting .222 on the year and through 65 games has the same amount of homers (3) as Ramos does overall. Ramos also already has 15 RBI which is very close to Suzuki's 19 on the season.

Rafael Soriano, CL - 3 IP, 3 SV, 0 ER, 3 H, BB, SO

Soriano made it interesting in his three appearances this week, letting four guys get on base across three innings, but notched three saves to push his season total to 24. The veteran closer hasn't blown a save since May 21 and is fifth in the majors in saves. The three pitchers with the most saves in MLB are in the American League, so Soriano could have a legitimate case as an All-Star snub. He is well on his way to 40+ saves and could challenge the franchise record of 47 set by Chad Cordero in 2005.

Ian Desmond, SS - .308 BA, 8 H, 5 R, 5 BB, 2 SB

The power numbers haven't been there for Desmond as of late, but he's getting on base and scoring runs. 13 times in the last seven games the Nats' shortstop reached base, raising his season OPS to .815. Desmond wasn't honored with his second All-Star nod this year and it's looking bleak in the online final vote. But Troy Tulowitzki is still in the minors working his way back from a broken rib and is questionable to participate at Citi Field. He told reporters just yesterday he needs to join the Rockies before making the decision. Maybe Desmond can fill his spot if Tulo backs out.

NOT:

Stephen Strasburg, SP - 1-0, 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, HR, 2 BB, 5 SO, 6.00 ERA

Strasburg has been victim of the fourth worst run support (2.94 per game) in the majors this season, but finally got some help in the Nats' 11-7 win over the Padres on July 7. Strasburg earned the win despite having his worst outing since April. The young ace gave up four earned runs to San Diego through six innings, allowing seven hits and two walks. He did strike out a season-high nine batters, but Strasburg was lucky to get the victory. Usually when a Nats pitcher gives up four runs these days, they are almost guaranteed the loss.

Denard Span, OF - .250 BA, 6 H, 2 RBI, 2 BB, SB, 2 SO

Span did have six hits in the Nats' three-game sweep of the Padres, but went hitless in each of their other games this week and was sat in favor of Scott Hairston on Tuesday night in Philly. The underrated part of Hairston's acquisition could be the future handling of Span against left-handed pitchers. Hairston led off on Tuesday with Cole Hamels on the mound as he's had much greater success against lefties this season with eight home runs. Span is hitting .305 against righties this year but just .154 against lefties. An average that low through a decent sample size (91 at-bats) can't be tolerated out of the leadoff spot. Expect more rest for Span against southpaws in the future.

Craig Stammen, RP - 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, HR, 2 BB, 3 SO, 2.140 WHIP

Somehow in late June, Stammen's season took a major turn for the worse. Since June 27, across seven appearances, Stammen has surrendered eight earned runs on 15 hits in just eight innings. The Nats have lost four of those seven games with Stammen providing no assistance in their cause. His season ERA now sits at 3.75 just six weeks after he entered June with a 2.60 mark. Stammen did toss 1 1/3 innings of solid work on Tuesday in Philly, so maybe he can work through this. But for now he stands as a bit of a liability out of the bullpen.

Jordan Zimmermann, SP - 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, BB, 4 SO, 5.06 ERA

Zimmermann is not off to a great start in the month of July with two consecutive outings allowing three earned runs or more. Before these past two starts he had only given up more than two runs three times through 16 outings. Luckily for Zimmermann, both of his starts in July have resulted in Nationals wins as he's continued to see terrific run support from his teammates. No Nats starter has seen more runs on average than Zimmermann (4.72) and his 12-3 record certainly reflects that.

Drew Storen, RP - 1-0, 3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 HR, 4 SO, 9.00 ERA

Storen was doing so well just a week ago, ending June and starting July with some of his most convincing outings of the year. But over the past week he's found major trouble, giving up seven earned runs across two appearances against the Brewers. Storen has now given up 21 earned runs in 37 innings this season to compile a 5.11 ERA. That's the worst among all relievers with at least 40 appearances this season. Storen's job is probably safe for now, but Ryan Mattheus and Christian Garcia are on their way back and could challenge him for a late innings role.

56 comments:

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Storens last 2 appearabces makes him neutral not "not"

James Joyce said...

Storen can't be trusted in late innings given where his stuff is now and with a runner on, it's that much worse. Relievers are out there to be had in MLB, Rizzo needs to find another seasoned, quality late inning guy soon. If Storen rights the ship, then great the club is that much better, but they need to make a move.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Pitching is not our biggest problem. Lack of scoring is.

Check my list on tge previous post for tge numbers

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

MNF's aforementioned list on the preceding post

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

The key scoring 5 or more only 2 losses, 4 or more only 5 losses.

Seems pretty obvious our problems not scoring 4 or more runs enough.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

The other side we give up 3 or less and we have lost 16.

Section 222 said...

Werth's hot streak is very impressive. Remember early 2011 when a bar in DC priced its beer according to his dropping batting average? I was one who preferred him in the 2 hole, but he's proving me wrong, and I'm very happy about it.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

ERA is deceiving for short relievers who don't get a lot of innings (Storen's only got 37 IP). His WHIP (1.432), hits per 9 innings (10.5), and HR/9 (1.5) are all way up, though, which isn't good.

OTOH, a lot of that is contained to a few outings. He was a little iffy into mid-May, but since then, in 21 appearances, he's allowed no runs in 17 of them, but 3 or 4 runs in the three of the other four.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

JZim gives up 1 earned run and Davey pulls him of Ohlendorf with 1 out and men on 1st and 2nd with Guzman at bat. Seconds later the 3 run HR gives JZim a 3 earned run day. He pitched well all game and with Strasburg he gave up 4 runs while he was working with a big lead. We all know how pitching to contact goes with a large lead.

In both cases the Nats won.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Correct, that is why I am not as concerned about Storen as otgers are.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

OTOH, the Staymen record doesn't really portray how bad he was with inherited runners scoring which didn't go on his ERA. Very deceiving adding to his already poor numbers.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Ghost I agree neither should have been in the not hot list either.

Span batted .250 and was not hot.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

The other thing about Storen is, he's 25. Do you get rid of a perfectly good reliever for maybe the next decade, under team control for the next several years, and with closer stuff, just because he had a bad homestand? Or even a mediocre season? Not unless you get something really good in exchange.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

I wonder inherited runners scoring percentage is and what it is last 10 appearances.

baseballswami said...

Storen had trouble in two appearances out of about 18. Those two were a hiccup- he has already put it behind him. His stuff is filthy. Done. Move on.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

OTOH, the Staymen record doesn't really portray how bad he was with inherited runners scoring which didn't go on his ERA. Very deceiving adding to his already poor numbers.

Specifically, 8 of 17.

I happened to be looking it up anyway. : )

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

I don't

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Sofa what stat tool do you use. I looked at fangraphs for the first time today and either I am old and stupid or something because it was not user friendly.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

I wonder inherited runners scoring percentage is and what it is last 10 appearances.

You mean for Storen?
Entered 7 times with 11 runners total on base; 2 scored. One was June 25 vs. AZ, the other May 22 in SF.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

MNF, I'm kinda lazy, and since I'm accustomed to B-I, that's what I use.

Drew Storen

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

What is B-I?

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

Sofa what stat tool do you use? I looked at fangraphs for the first time today and either I am old and stupid or something because it was not user friendly.

I wouldn't say that, in either case. You might be a bit impatient with yourself. How'd you do the first time you drove a stick shift?

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

Sorry, typo and thinking of something else.

B-R is Baseball Reference dot com.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

Although, since I brought it up, Baseball International is a lot of fun, too.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

I was looking at that Sofa remind BABip. What does it mean when it is closer to your average, and when it is farther from your batting average.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

BABIP in Wikipedia

Batting Average on Balls In Play is supposed to roughly account for what's traditionally considered "bad luck" in hitting balls hard, but "right at" people. It tends to fall between about .280 and .320 for most people, over a significantly large sample size, pretty much kinda sorta regardless of their individual batting average, because the field is the same size for everybody, basically, and you can't really control exactly where the ball is going when you hit it.

People who hit the ball harder tend to have higher BABIP, and people who hit a lot of ground balls (which can have eyes) vs. fly balls in play (which usually get caught) (HRs are not in play). Slow grounders, OTOH, tend to become outs. Infield fly balls tend to become outs almost every time.

So a BABIP of .149 means Hairston has been hitting a lot of balls at people. A BABIP of about .350 could mean Rendon is hitting a lot of line drives hard, or they just haven't figured out where to play him yet.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

Genuine stats geeks are encouraged to correct any misstatements there. Thanks.

David Proctor said...

The Fish actually have some really good young starting pitching. Jacob Turner (who pitched today) and Jose Fernandez (who we will see) are both very good. I wonder how long they last in a Fish uniform.

sjm308 said...

I realize Storen had two very tough outings but there is no way I give up on a 25 year old who has great stuff. In my opinion, he will be our closer once Soriano departs and we will be the beneficiary of that. The kid is smart, and will figure things out. I hate how much time he takes between pitches and how he lets an umpires call take him out of his game plan but I still think he is our future.

We obviously have players in the "not hot" catagory but I don't think you put SS or JZ in there this week. Last time I checked they both got wins and that is a "hot" stat to me.

Go Nats!!

Does anyone have information on the names of the players involved with BioGenesis. All they talk about are Braun and ARod. I am wondering if Gio came out of that clean?

David Proctor said...

Nate Eovaldi is good too.

nats guy said...

Storen actually might be a good trade candidate because he has good value. You have to trade something to get something. Depends on what they are going for and what they might add to him.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

I suppose I should have mentioned that faster runners will beat out more ground balls, which also plays into it.

nats guy said...

The only thing I cannot stand about Storen is how easy he is to run on. That hasbeen the source of many of his problems. Actually that is a problem for almost the entire pitching staff and needs to be fixed badly.

Section 222 said...

I remember that Morse tended to have a very high BABIP, which made sense because he really stung the ball. I would imagine that if you're batting average is close to your BABIP, what it mostly means is that you are not striking out much. And if your BABIP is actually less than your batting average, you have more more home runs than strikeouts!

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

I imagine Rizzo is not shopping anybody, but is shopping for somebody, and if it requires giving up pieces, e.g., as in the Gio trade, then he moves them. Although I suppose Morse was an exception to that.

JD said...


sjm308,

I don't recall exactly (biogenesys) and I don't want to throw out names randomly but I am pretty sure that Gio is not linked to anything illegal although he was quite clearly a customer. I think he dodged a bullet here.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

Actually [being easy to run on] is a problem for almost the entire pitching staff and needs to be fixed badly.

Agreed. When Pudge was here, that was not a problem--it began as soon as he left. Coincidence? I doubt it.

m said...

Pitching is not the problem. They need hitting. They need to improve the bench in order to create competition for playing time. In the future take some of the 13mm wasted on pitching and get a bench like Ibanez, Morse , etc. They lost the last two games, where our 4th and 5th pitchers pitched, not because of pitching but because of hitting. Come on Rizzo et al focus.

JD said...


sofa,

I agree with your conclusion. I don't think you deal Storen for a rental. If I were Rizzo I would look for someone who is keen on dumping salaries and is not necessarily looking for prospects.

I think Garza will be pricey and so will Norris.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

Braun didn't answer questions (ESPN)

MLB 'to hand out suspensions' (Guardian)

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Thx so Harper and The Buffalo who have higher home run rates have lower BAPip than others.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

"MLB has been gathering evidence against as many as 20 players with the help of Anthony Bosch, the former owner of Biogenesis, and is in the midst of trying to justify 100-game suspensions for both using and lying – a first offence is normally 50 games. Of course, any suspensions would have an appeals process which could drag out for some time."
from the Guardian article linked above

JD said...


m,

Ibanez is an every day player and Morse is injured . Try again.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

so Harper and The Buffalo who have higher home run rates have lower BAPip than others.

No, home runs are not "balls in play" and are not part of BABIP. Batters who hit more fly balls tend to hit more home runs, generally, but they don't figure in the calculation, since by definition, no fielder has a play. Well, maybe Carlos Gonzales...

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

Somebody suggested Nate Schierholtz yesterday, which is probably closer to what's available. OTOH, if they just got Hairston from the Cubs, I have to believe they discussed Schierholtz and couldn't agree on a deal.

alexva said...

Fish up 6-2 on ATL. still batting in bottom of 8th.

JD said...


Sofa,

That was me and I think you are probably right. Schierholtz has been playing regularly for the Cubs and he has done well and he is still young. I don't think Epstein is giving him away.

Eugene in Oregon said...

sjm308,

If you google 'biogenesis list baseball' you'll get a couple of different versions of the list of those who've been linked to Biogenesis in one form or another. The ESPN and CBS Sports versions seem to be the most complete and authoritative, with 15-20 players each. Both still include Gio Gonzalez as having been linked to Biogenesis, albeit with comments to the effect that he's not believed to have purchased banned substances and is unlikely to face suspension.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Braves lose 6-2

Section 222 said...

As sofa says, HRs are not balls in play. But they are hits, so they raise your BA and are neutral with respect to your BABIP. If you strike out a lot, like Espi, for example, your BABIP may seem high compared with your BA. If you don't strike out much, your BA could approach your BABIP. And if you have more HRs than Ks (Scutaro?), your BA could be higher than your BABIP.

I think I have that right. Sofa?

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

I asume that inside the park hr thr few they are counted as they are in plsy.

Still trying to figure what to glean fron this stat.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Knowing a BABip how does that tell me how ublucky a hitter is?

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Someone last mention trading 4 Nats for Brian Price, when they meant David Price.

I knew I had heard Brian Price's name.

He is the pitching coach for tge Reds.

3on2out said...

Fish win. 5.5 back.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Matt Cain departs after 36 pitches and 2 outs in the first.

Maybe Giants eill dump him. Not.

Sec. 3, My Sofa said...

Deuces, thanks for that emendation.

I wasn't figuring on unwrapping it, since it's not my expertise, and there are better sources.

Keep in mind, it's very difficult to know much of anything, in any field, based on one data point. You have to have something to compare it to, and the more things you have, usually, the better your picture gets.

Post a Comment