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Associated Press |
And in a season filled with some less-than-pretty performances from the Nationals, Wednesday night's 10-1 trouncing at the hands of the Mets might have been the ugliest yet.
So much for building any positive momentum out of Tuesday night's dramatic, come-from-behind victory. Or any other positive development the Nationals have experienced over the last two months that have failed to get this club going on a prolonged, upward track.
"There's really no explanation for it," center fielder Denard Span said. "We just haven't played good. I'm going to be honest. Just all across the board."
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129 comments:
Sorry boys, the season is long but it's getting shorter.
I honestly doubt that there is any correlation between victories after comebacks and victory in the game the next day. One of the surprising and perhaps unwanted contributions of mathematics and statistics to sports is the upending of the victory saga. For every great game 7 win by a team like the '86 Mets after an incredible comeback, there is a game 7 flame-out by the '75 Red Sox in game 7 against the Reds. It seems like basketball players get on hot streaks, but after analyzing the data, all one finds are random patterns.
I don't think the Nats could reasonably have won this game regardless of last night, unless one believes that teams are to be expected to come back from 4 run deficits. Haren put the team in a can't win position once again and his decent outings here and there are becoming more and more tiresome in that he seems completely and utterly undependable. I believe in McCraken and all that, but Haren appears to be pitching batting practice at times, and babip or not, he appears to be the Nationals biggest problem now that Espinosa is gone.
The only only good thing is that if you throw out the games in which Haren has pitched, the team's run differential suddenly looks a hell of a lot better. I can't recall each and every moment of last year, but aside from all the injuries, which we also had last year, what is the biggest difference between this year and last year?
Edwin Jackson (and John Lannan as well) was a hell of a lot better than Dan Haren, who by a wide margin seems destined for his worst season ever. On the bright side, however, Haren seems to be quite a hitter, so maybe we have another Rick Ankiel on our hands.
All joking aside, I feel certain that the Nats would have a better record this year with a replacement pitcher inside of Haren, and with Haren taking all of Tyler Moore's and Chad Tracy's at bats.
A little more on Haren:
Looking at Haren's ERA, it was trending downward from 8;20 after he got hammered by Miami. He even beat the Reds at home after they killed him in Cincy. It was down to 4.76 after a decent loss in L.A. However, it then started trending upward, albeit more slowly since stats move more slowly as the season progresses. He is now basically back to where he was after the San Diego game, about 5.50 ERA.
His results are also provide a good insight into the randomness of baseball. He won at Atlanta, where few others have, versus the sluggers of Detroit at home, and had a good outing at Baltimore versus their phenomenal sluggers. He got utterly hammered by the Padres, Mets and Marlins, all of whom seem weak, as well as by the Reds in Cincy.
Edwin Jackson basically gave the Nats something near a fifty percent chance of winning each time he went out. Haren seems to be closer to providing a one third chance of winning each outing. His ERA+ bears this out as does the team's record during his starts, which is 4-8. Somehow, he seems to almost always get a decision, be it a win or a loss.
ESPN projects him to finish with an 11-19 record versus Jackson's essentially even record everywhere he went before Chicago. I am not sure that the Nats can withstand losing five more games in the loss column the rest of the way during his starts and that is assuming they don't lose more of his non-decision starts.
Let's put it another way. Had Haren been in Jackson spot last year, we would have been in the Wild Card game with the Cards instead of winning the division. We basically jettisoned two pitchers, Lannan and Jackson, who had a winning record between them, in exchange for Haren who cost at least 4 times what Lannan could have been kept for.
I really would like to see Haren turn this around, not just for the obvious reasons but because He seems like an articulate and decent sort. I appreciate his hitting and his devotion to the National League. Some have claimed a lack of preparation on his part but I have seen nothing indicative of that if it is true. As things stand now, however, all other things being equal and we all doubt that they are, the substitution of Haren for Jackson/Lannan will make this year's pennant win a much more difficult endeavor.
Just to complete and hammer home the above thoughts:
The Nats currently have a run differential of -34 runs.
In the games in which Dan Haren has not pitched, the Nats currently have a run differential of +3.
If I am doing the math correctly, that means the Nats have been outscored by 37 runs in Haren's 12 outings.
I am not sure how you manage this the rest of the way, but I almost think it is at the point where you have to treat Haren like a relief pitcher and take him out of the game as soon as he either gives up a home run or allows more than 3 base runners in an inning. He does not seem to be able to recover from bad initial innings the way some of the other guys do.
When will they finally bench Haren? I bet Stammen would do a much better job and I don't buy that he's too valuable as a long reliever. Last year yes, because we came from behind so many times. This year it's largely wasted good innings. I would use Davis and Krol in the long reliever role, both used to be starters.
All valid points about Haren's inconsistency. When Dan has been bad, he's been really, really bad. Having said that, Dillon Gee had an even worse ERA and a worse record than Haren going into last night's game. But Dan would have had to have pitched a shutout to win last night, as the Nats offense produced only 1 run.
They hit Gee with abandon until they had men in scoring position, and then they meekly struck out, failing to even put the ball in play, time after time. It was as if Danny left behind a special situational strike out bug that they all caught.
I expect that offense to pick up. They have too many good hitters having sub-par years, up to now. No one has been playing up to the level they played at last year, except for Harper, and he has to sit and watch, at present.
They were extraordinarily lucky last year with the health, consistency, and durability of their starting rotation. No such luck this year. Rizzo has been able to rework the bull pen with some fresh arms, but he's got nothing to replace Detwiler and Strasburg in the rotation. How many Nats fans thought they would miss last year's John Lannan?
Rizzo has replaced 2 strike out hitters (Espinosa and Moore) with 2 contact hitters (Lombo and Rendon). Harper will come back. Werth will realize he is no longer facing single A pitching, and adjust.
Rizzo has improved the offense and the pen, but they will probably tread water until they get Detwiler, Strasburg, and Harper back. There is no way to replace any of those 3 guys. Rizzo is just about out of ammo.
Span thinks the team is "better than this". It isn't. Actually, once the lowly Nationals figure out that they are not a good team, they will play more relaxed and improve their performance. It won't be good enough at all, to climb out of fourth place (they'll get there) at the end of the season, but they need to accept they are by far not the best team in the division. There will also be no chance of playing in snow during playoff time. So, relax guys. Accept what you are and blunder through the rest of the season.
Thanks Phillies fan.
When is the last time it snowed in November.
Man, the whole team is in an offensive funk. When will it end?
I did enjoy watching Krol and Abad pitch last night. Certainly a big step up in left-handed pitching.
I think Werth will help out a lot when he shakes the rust off, and Anthony Rendon hopefully will come on strong after he gets acclimated to major league pitching. If we get Harper back soon, we should have more offense on a more consistant basis.
Ugh
Letting Lannan go looks like Rizzo's biggest mistake. The guy was the Nats #1 for several years-a pretty dependable starter.
Ugh
Man ... you know things are bad when a bunch of posters are longing for a pitcher that has been on the DL for most of the year and never was very good.
Zim is a shell of his former self. So many hits through the hole that were outs years ago and he doesn't even try to dive anymore. His at bats are awful, take a pitch down the middle for a strike, foul one off, followed by a weak groundout. No power, he is a 2 hitter at best. Without Bryce this lineup is just awful.
Davey is as much to blame as anyone. He has no spark, he looks defeated on the bench, and his moves are terrible. He better play Rendon every game the rest of the year rather than sitting him for Lombo like he did before. We need to allow his bat to adjust because he is one of the few high ceiling bats we have on the team with power and OBP. At this point we are likely playing for next year which means Rendon should be allowed to adjust as needed and should be in the lineup no matter what.
Re: the injuries...I can't figure out if it's because we keep acquiring talent that seems to get hurt at the drop of a hat, or because our crack medical and training staff aren't getting the job done...or both. That said, is it football season yet?
Rendon is the real deal.
win tonight and take the series.
How's about Ian Krol! Strikes out the sides and the one hit just eluded Lombo's glove.
From that photo above of Desi striking out, Pitch FX confirms the ball was inside and missed and would have been ball 4. The Nats just weren't getting the calls just like Werth's check swing that they called him out on.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/numlocation.php-pitchSel=518716&game=gid_2013_06_05_nynmlb_wasmlb_1&batterX=29&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3.gif
The Fisher said...
Letting Lannan go looks like Rizzo's biggest mistake. The guy was the Nats #1 for several years-a pretty dependable starter.
Huh, what? First, Lannan was doing it with mirrors here. He simply doesn't miss many bats. Plus, he's been hurt most of the year in Philly. He was our No. 1 starter when we were losing 103 games, by default. Nice guy, just mediocre stuff. Rizzo's "biggest mistake?" I don't think so. Maybe Morse, maybe Haren, maybe not getting a proven lefty reliever, maybe this hope that Ramos can go through 25 games without getting hurt, maybe a lot of things. But not re-signing John Lannan was hardly it.
There is one positive about this nightmare season, that is Mark's blog is getting a record number of hits and posts. I wonder if Mark has the stats to back up what I am saying... basically, Nats Insider may get more hits and posts now, when the team sucks than when they were wining last season. that is a temporary thing, if the team tanks and gets off to last place start in 2014, then I am afraid the hits go way down just as attendance will at Nats Park. Regardless, I am happy for Mark because at the very least his blog and forum deserve to benefit
Sunshine_Bobby_Carpenter_Is_Too_Pessimistic_For_Me
I will take Lannan over this dog 10 of 10 times. 15 homers given up already!! seriously? Haren is Denny McClain 42 years later. McClain started off 5-4 in 1971 before dropping 22 losses. Haren is one of the worst moves in this franchises brief history in DC
When Werth and Bryce are hitting back to back in the 2 & 3 holes this offense will crank.
how soon the Davey and Rizzo kool aide drinking defenders forget what Lannan did in 2012...he may have saved the Nats from a mental collapse in July 2012. His performance verse Braves after the the team blew a 9-0 lead and then lost a close game the next day 3-2 was a season saver. Lannan did this again all the way threw September. To tell anyone that Haren is a better pitcher, mentally and professionally.... I got a bridge to sell you
Well that was a giant poop stick of a game. Gee has had our number for whatever reason. Dan had a great game last week. I expect we will see this for the rest of the year. A couple of good games a couple of bad ones. Just what you would expect from the 5th starter.
Gonat agreed, add Ramos as well, but that is just it, after those players we really do not have the talent that was hyped to all of us
Don't look now but Jason Marquis had a no-hitter into the 7th inning and beat Clayton Kershaw.
He's 7-2 with a 3.73 ERA. He was also available as a Free Agent it's just that people here don't like guys that aren't throwing 92MPH. Marquis has always been a solid 4/5 back of the rotation pitcher.
let us not forget..... June 6, 1944
Gonat said...
Don't look now but Jason Marquis had a no-hitter into the 7th inning and beat Clayton Kershaw.
don't tell us that, lol
So, Mick, just to recap, after reading the game thread. It doesn't sicken you to see fans going to Mark's blog, it only sickens you when they go to Nats games and support the team? Okay, got it. ;-)
in fact, my whole point is that fans will stop coming if this crap goes on and that is the last thing I want to happen after all that has been invested...that is what sickens me..
but you can LIE and twist all you want...it reflects more on you than anything else...
Excuse the cutting and pasting fail in my deleted post, but I was rather shocked by Mick's response.
Thanks, but I think my comprehension is fine.
Here's your comment:
Mick said...
it is so sickening to see the fans come out and show support, Nats fans have proven DC is a baseball town (not that we ever had too). Nats are top 5-6 in attendance. If i was the owner, i would be livid with Davey and the Stooge
June 05, 2013 9:33 PM
========
WTF!!!!
is there a reading comprehension problem with you and others
I stated it sickens me that this team stinks and yet we fans have proven that DC is a baseball team.. I loathe people that cherry pick what they want want to twist, such as you. In fact take you kool aide drink it and go to hell!!
Have a nice day, Mick.
About Lannan, let's wait a minute. No one said he had scintillating stuff. What was said was that the Jackson/Lannan combo was clearly better than Haren, and it could be had for approximately the same $ as Haren alone. Jackson and Haren are making about the same this year, while Lannan signed with the Phillies for half! of what we paid him last year.
That seems to indicate that he was simply shown the door. I don't recall him being injured last year, so the fact that he is on the DL seems to be neither here nor there. We have two pitchers on the DL as well.
BTW, what the heck ever happened to Christian Garcia? Does he really exist or is he just a phantom?
Mick is saying the fans are supporting and the team is disappointing. Am I right?
At one point this long season is going to morph into a long offseason.
Just so hard to watch this team right now.
Things are definitely out of whack this season. We drive ourselves crazy trying to figure out why. But then I look at the angels-- Pujols, Hamilton, Trout. I look at the Dodgers and Blue Jays. We are not the only team that makes you scratch your head. Doesn't make it any easier, but shows you that it's not a fluke either., I do think we will have a better second half. There are never any guarantees when you put a team together or play a game. I am sorry, though, the hitting coach must bear some responsibility. I am well aware that it's the players who go out there. Then why have hitting coaches if they have nothing to do with how the offense performs? Just get rid of the position? Sometimes you need a change of direction in leadership. Working hard and sleeping with your clipboard are things I could do. The job is to help the players hit effectively and produce offense. I thought this was a results oriented business. Not saying it's all on him at all- but at least some. I do not agree that the people in the highest positions appear to be untouchable. This is a young team. We need coaches for a reason.
I think that it is pretty obvious that the club is simply not nearly as good as anyone thought it was in Spring Training. There are lots of positives, but there are some big problems. Zim and Desi do not defend well enough to play their positions. Espi does not hit well enough to play his. There is no 2 hitter to be found (Werth is not the answer there, 1-8 against the Mets, 3 Ks last night, zero walks). The pen needs help. No one can hold a runner on. The bench has not been successful. (Do they even have a back-up SS, btw?)
Anyway, third place and 8 games back, with Stras looking to miss a couple of starts and Harper on DL? Ouch. The worm needs to turn or this club is headed for also ran status sooner than later. Once Harper is back,the club needs to go on a roll going into the All Star break or the WS or bust season is likely lost.
We had Jason Marquis already. He was not good. His ERA+ is still under 100. That guy was no solution but admittedly a 97 ERA+ is way better than seeing Haren doing a 69 and getting pounded all the time.
No easy fix for Haren. Like has been mentioned, the hindsight for Lannan and even Jackson are moot, considering Lannan's had a whopping three starts this season, and Jackson is 0-5 and 6+ ERA (which cost Chicago 4 years and 52 million. Haren's at least put up a few good games and we aren't stuck with him for several years after this.
Haren's control needs to be perfect or else he's throwing BP. Rizzo has no better option--let's hope he rediscovers his pinpoint control.
So, tonight we get Marcum: 0-6, 5.71 ERA.
Can we pu-leeze score some runs??
I recommend a moratorium on comments on Espinosa. The guy is gone and he is clearly not coming back this year, as should be the case. Nevertheless, any team had to give him a decent chance because his offensive stats last year were quite decent for a 2B, especially his power, and he fielded well. He was a bit like a 2B version of J.J. Hardy.
I kind of wish we had kept Tommy Milone. Reminds me of Lannan- not the flashy power. But gets it done. We need to give both Werth and Rendon a few games to adjust up to major league pitching. Especially since we face total aces every single night. (!!!) I still see the every day changes in defensive configuration and line up as a problem. No chance at all to coordinate with others on defense or settle into a role. It is chaotic.
WODL-- agreed!!!
… the only explanation I can think of is that at age seventy, you really don't have to worry about being able to back up anything you say. That can be the only reason a seasoned baseball veteran like Davey Johnson would make such an outlandish claim like "The World Series or You Can Fire Me". Clearly the diamond deities had a large chuckle over that one, and now here we are.
C'mon Nats. Go!!
That is a good point about Jackson wanting a multi-year contract. I was assuming common sense which the Cubs and the Braves with their $75 million BJ fiasco seem to lack. MLB's salary structure is so out of whack, with the veteran's in the Player's Union doing everything possible to screw over the younger players. I can't imagine why anyone would sign a Haren or Jackson to umpteen million dollar contracts when younger guys can be had for a quarter of that.
WODL, Marquis is like Lannan in that their stats can't always be defined or make sense. All I can say about Marquis even when he was in DC is that the team had a great W L record in games he pitched and he's doing it again.
I can't remember exactly but didn't Marquis have issues here? He can be had on the cheap, now earning less than half of what he was earning back then. Just think where the Angels would be now if they still had Haren, lol.
So, a lineup that can't put more than three runs on the board.
A shaky bullpen.
A bench that has to stand on a ladder and get the binoculars out to see the Mendoza line.
Shaky defense.
And three of our five starters are either injured or ineffective.
I like to be optimistic, but really, why should I expect they're going to improve dramatically any time soon?
"BTW, what the heck ever happened to Christian Garcia?"
He started last night, for the first time this year, as far as I know. He had been used in relief up until last night. Went 2 scoreless innings and was relieved by Blake Treinen, who got the win. He is a long, long way from being ready to start in the bigs. I suppose they will take their time stretching him out in the minors before they even think about bringing him up.
For anyone interested, here's the box score for Garcia's effort last night. Not bad, 4 Ks in 2 innings, but with 2 walks and 1 hit:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2013_06_05_bowaax_haraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
How about as a lefty reliever?
Ghost Of Steve M. said...
Mick is saying the fans are supporting and the team is disappointing. Am I right?
Thank you, EXACTLY!
what bothers me is that Natsfan1a came in here to pick a fight.. i did not start this
My forehead is suddenly very attracted to that brick wall over there...
Candide, I don't think they are going to improve dramatically in the near future.The pitching is just not there to go on a 10/12 streak right now.
But some improvement (and some better luck) is certainly possible. Things won't look hopeless if we pick up four games on Atlanta during June.
"I like to be optimistic, but really, why should I expect they're going to improve dramatically any time soon?"
How about:
SS and Detwiler return to the rotation in 2-3 weeks
Harper comes back good as new in 5-10 days
The Nats revamped lineup:
Span
Rendon
Harper
Zim
ALR
Werth
Desi
Catcher
That is one helluva lineup. The Nats could have, and should have had that lineup a month ago, at least. By the end of this season, Rendon will already be the best hitting 2nd baseman in the NL. Harper was on track to have a monster year before the first fence encounter in Atlanta. When he heals (knock on wood) he could pick up right back from where he left off.
Werth, Zim, Desi and ALR have been under-performing. Desi and, especially, ALR, have picked it up, lately. So will the others. maybe not all of them, but the Nats have some big bats that have been too quiet so far. Span has been getting on base. He's been an asset as the new leadoff guy. That is about the only position that has had any stability all season long.
Put the best lineup out there, and it will score runs.
Man. Last night when I was asking how people are still talking about Espi, I almost said, "but, no matter, Haren will supplant him soon enough as the scapegoat."
Looks like it may have already happened.
Only problem with that theory: The likelihood of Haren winning was as high yesterday as it was in Baltimore when he borderline dominated the Os. We scored one (1) run.
It's a teamwide problem. Sure, it may be a nice emotional release to eviscerate this guy or that, but it's gratuitously misplaced and inaccurate, imo.
"Laddie.....he (Cristian) started Sunday and pitched 1 clean inning. Last nite was his 3rd rehab appearance."
Thanks, Jack.
I also saw that performance by Ray last night. He seems to be coming into his own, but he won't help the big team this year. And, as you know, Solis and (gasp!) even Purke are now pitching, and doing pretty well in the minors. The Nats have some great young arms, but they won't help this year.
Well, maybe Garcia later this year. But the Nats are always careful with their pitchers, so maybe not until August or September, assuming a rapid and successful rehab.
Laddie -- I like that lineup a lot. I hope that Davey get Rendon in there at 2 to let Werth swing for the fences to knock guys in. We'll see.
"how soon the Davey and Rizzo kool aide drinking defenders"
See, that right there, that's called picking a fight with anyone you deem "kool aide drinking defenders."
How about you go whole hog and just list everyone you feel that way about? Do you have it in you? Then all those people can know that you think very unkindly of their opinions and can choose to dismiss you out of hand or to engage in your little game.
Seriously, man, put it all on the line. Because it's ridiculous that you come in here fists blazing and then get all, "well I never!!!" when natsfan1a gives you a light-hearted razzing, winky included.
With all due respect, of course.
Espinosa is a 2b version of JJ Hardy? Really? I disagree. Actually Espinosa is a 2b version of Adam Dunn, except of course for the walks and homers.
WODL, agreed completely with your comments re: Espinosa. I only differ in that I would love to see him work things out in time to return this year, unless his shoulder was playing a role, in which case I really hope he does what it takes to definitively fix it.
I admittedly bailed after 2 or 3 innings last night and just checked in from time to time via at bat for the rest of the game. So, I missed Abad and Karns, but I'm happy to hear they did well.
I was also very glad to see Rendon managing his plays well at 2B. He had fielded everything cleanly by the time I turned off the TV...did the trend continue?
If Tyler Moore cannot play in front of Lombo in LF, why is he in the bigs.
Eric==> Abad and Krol. Krol doesn't have any off-speed, but he does have the blazing fastball.
If it's rained out tomorrow does that mean a double header on Sunday? Can they even do that with an off-day/travel day on Monday?
"If Tyler Moore cannot play in front of Lombo in LF, why is he in the bigs."
Actually, with Kobernus up and able to play OF, Rendon freeing up Lombo to play LF as needed, Shark seeming to coming around at the plate, and Harper possibly back soon, we might be seeing Moore's last chance...
If they swap out Moore for Marrero, I fear Marrero will have the same problem--major league pitching.
Isn't that saying something about Davey's confidence in Shark also? Playing Lombo in front of him to.
I guess I'm more thinking Kobernus will replace Moore, and Moore will go down when Harper comes up?
But, I'm stepping into deeper water than I'm accustomed to here...
i like Lombo, but if you move a light hitting second basemen to the outfield to play in front of some of your "supposed" regular outfielders, that ain't saying a lot about your regular outfielders
With EJax, he came with high expectations and disappointed with his inconsistency and his post-season flop. Haren came in with kind of this high risk/hight reward type of billing. He has been great, good and lousy and sometimes all of those in 1 game. There were safer choices out there for the team's #5 and that $13 million could've been spent better.
Rizzo went bold this year and it's really been the little things and attention to the smaller details that were missed and I have talked about it over and over, and let's face it, this week 3 of the 5 issues were taken care of but organizational depth has been DEPLETED.
BigCat said...
Isn't that saying something about Davey's confidence in Shark also? Playing Lombo in front of him to.
June 06, 2013 9:43 AM
Did you miss Tuesday night's game? That start by Lombo was a reward for winning the game. Anyone playing LF is a placeholder for when Harper comes back.
NatsLady said...
Candide, I don't think they are going to improve dramatically in the near future.The pitching is just not there to go on a 10/12 streak right now.
The problem is, the hitting isn't, either. Okay, it should get better when Harper comes back, but how many additional runs per game is he going to create (that's a question that should be right in your wheelhouse, NL)?
And as regards the pitching... I'd feel a lot better about it if this team didn't have a long history of telling us that Player X will be back in a couple of days and then sending him to the 15-day or 60-day. I'll believe Det and Stras are okay when I see them pitch a couple of dominant games each. I don't want to be LoD here, but until then, I keep thinking back to the 1957 (or was it '58?) Braves:
"Spahn and Sain
And pray for rain."
For us, it's:
"Zimm and Gio
And pray for snow."
(Okay, it doesn't quite scan. When did I ever claim to be Robert Frost?)
Laddie,
I agree with you that all of these discussions about tertiary players is basically irrelevant. In the big picture these are the real problems and there is no real immediate answer:
1) The team MVP is injured. Our record without Bryce in the lineup is abysmal.
2) The starting rotation as of now is : JZimm, Gio, Haren, Karns and Ohlendorf.
3) Our opening day catcher has missed big chunks of playing time.
Ghost Of Steve M. said...
If Krol can develop a changeup, look out.
June 05, 2013 9:10 PM
Yah, what I said last night and he should also try to get that 4-seamer down in the zone. The Nats have needed a lefty who can throw that Johnny Venters fastball to lefty batters like that.
Not sure about Erik Davis. That was ugly. Wasn't exactly lucky in BABIP either.
Last year every thing that could of went right, did. This year, every thing that could of gone wrong, has. Braves are 8 up and we are in 3rd place. Unbelievable.
Laddie, all good points and what we have is a very depleted farm system that is close to MLB ready now with all of these callups. I guess when CGarcia and Mattheus are ready they can decide on who to send back and Karns can go back to the Minors and know what he has to work on but there's no depth in any position players that are close.
Those toolsy outfielders aren't lighting it up and there's no other infielders anywhere in the system that I see that looks "star" quality other than Rendon. Kobernus was confounding as a #1 pick in the 2nd round when he was taken and we really haven't seen him yet although that HBP was nice ;) and will give him a stat line.
BigCat said...
Last year every thing that could of went right, did. This year, every thing that could of gone wrong, has. Braves are 8 up and we are in 3rd place. Unbelievable.
You say that and are forgetting all the injuries and RZim's shoulder and EJax's inconsistencies and Danny's long slumps, and the fill-in for Storen with the blown saves early in the season and the big one was the Strasburg shutdown.
The big difference was a stronger bench and Gio's game dominance. The Nats had as strong as starting 4 (Stras, Gio, JZim, Det) as any team in the league.
NatsJack I went to the game and watched Ray last night, he was impressive. Blew some guys away. Was sitting behind home plate with the scouts, soon as we started to talk it started raining and they ran. Ray has excellent movement on his fastball.
Taylor looked lost at the plate until his last at bat, flaining at pitches.
Ghost,
You are right about the dearth of prospects at the position level in the minors (I guess Goodwin is still considered a strong prospect and while he is not dominating at AA he's not totally over matched either).
The thing is we knew this coming in and that was supposed to be mitigated by the fact that the major league team is still very young and solid for the most part.
An area of concern for me is the fact that Ryan Zimmerman hasn't hit at star level this year, he hasn't been bad but it's been kind of hit and miss with him. We'll see what happens when Harper returns but Ryan certainly hasn't put the team on his shoulders in Bryce's absence (with the exception of 1 game).
Ghost,
Stronger bench last year for sure but it was basically the same players (Bernie, Moore, Lomboo, Tracy). I am not sure that you can fault Rizzo in expecting similar results this year.
I don't think you can fault Rizzo for expecting similar results off the bench and perhaps better numbers from Moore; I fault the players. Our bench was OK; their performace now is not but that is not Rizzo's fault.
For Lannan, there's always the question of whether he would've even wanted to come back - you'd have to think he'd ask more to return, given how badly he took being sent to AAA.
And to claim that he saved the season last year is perhaps a bit much. He performed well, especially in that game against Atlanta. But momentum doesn't matter as much as we as fans like to think - this season for the Nats should demonstrate that nicely. If one bad game broke a player's spirit, he wouldn't have made it to the majors.
Candide, funny. Those were the days. For those who don't remember Johnny Sain, this is from his wikipedia entry:
"Sain and teammate Spahn achieved joint immortality that year when their feats were the subject of sports editor Gerald V. Hern's poem in the Boston Post which was eventually shortened to the epigram, "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain." According to the Baseball Almanac, the original doggerel appeared in Hern's column on September 14, 1948:
First we'll use Spahn
then we'll use Sain
Then an off day
followed by rain
Back will come Spahn
followed by Sain
And followed
we hope
by two days of rain.
The poem was inspired by the performance of Sain and Spahn during the Braves' 1948 pennant drive. The team swept a Labor Day doubleheader, with Spahn throwing a complete game 14-inning win in the opener, and Sain pitching a shutout in the second game. Following two off days, it did rain. Spahn won the next day, and Sain won the day after that. Three days later, Spahn won again. Sain won the next day. After one more off day, the two pitchers were brought back, and won another doubleheader. The two pitchers had gone 8-0 in twelve days' time."
Against Matt Cain, the Cards turned 9 hits into 7 runs. I say, keep getting the hits boys, and don't be discouraged.
JD, there was no rush to commit last year so quickly to Tracy as they needed to see who was available. Tracy had a poor 2nd half.
On Tracy--I felt at the time that was an impulse move. Nevertheless, it wasn't (and isn't) high risk. There are no bad year deals, certainly not bad $1M one-year deals. If there is a better guy or the waiver wire or on a cheap trade. Rizzo will find him.Tracy is not the one keeping this team at .500.
Looks like Robby Ray has turned things around also. Good year in 2011, then an absolutely disasterous year last year. Got it going pretty good this year. 4-2 2.38 and 80 k's in 60 innings. Probably see him in AA soon
>Against Matt Cain, the Cards turned 9 hits into 7 runs. I say, keep getting the hits boys, and don't be discouraged.
Agreed. The feat of getting 1 run off of 10 hits is so illustrative of the season so far. Just utterly bizarre and maddening.
Take the rubber match today boys!
NatsJack they try. Some of it is minor league hokey but for a couple of dollars to get in it is a really good place to catch a game. Wanted to see Ray so we went and bought two tickets, were 5th row behind home plate. And dollar hot dog night too!
NatsLady, agree and disagree. Once they extended Tracy they didn't look for upgrading.
NatsJack @ 9:07, thanks.
NatsJack, there's nothing like the view from directly behind homeplate and near the backstop to see the movement on pitches and batters reactions.
Ghost,
I agree on Tracy. But I am not sure it's that big of a deal as far as wins and loses.
NatsJack I had them here, over the 1st base dugout, for 5 years then just stopped because no one wanted to go. Last night we decided to pick up the second half of the season. Just too much fun.
Eric said...
Agreed. The feat of getting 1 run off of 10 hits is so illustrative of the season so far. Just utterly bizarre and maddening.
As you watch the game and see how a batter treats his AB with RISP and without can boil your blood.
The Nats have plenty of low leverage performers. Between Span's K, Werth's Ks (plural), and other failures to advance runners it again goes back to approach.
Werth with a lazy fly to CF in the 1st with Span on 2nd didn't advance him which is the secondary goal after a hit and Gee was pitching Werth outside the 1st couple of pitches. I'll give Werth a pass since he is recently off the DL but it was ineptitude to the max last night in all facets of the game.
JD said...
Ghost,
I agree on Tracy. But I am not sure it's that big of a deal as far as wins and loses.
June 06, 2013 11:47 AM
You are right, it is small unless the replacement player available would have been much better than average.
It's the combination of Tracy/TyMo and the fact they are supposed to be the big power bats off the bench and they haven't been.
They are the last 2 pieces that have to be fixed for Davey. Both easily replaceable. TyMo can get retooled at AAA.
Both easily replaceable.
Are you sure? We'd all like to think that Corey Brown, Chris Marrero, or Micah Owings would hit better, and I certainly expect they wouldn't be any worse. But there's no way to really know how good they'd be and every reason to doubt that they will replicate their sparkling minor league numbers. Ty-Mo raked in the minors too as we all know, and I'll bet Tracy would crush minor league pitching if he ever faced it again, which he likely won't.
Or are you talking about a trade? If so, who's out there and at what cost? I really hope we can improve the bench, especially since it seems likely that they will get significant playing time as well as PH appearances as the year goes on.
The other thing too is losing 'good' clubhouse guys, not sure if Tracy applies. For all the horrible ABs DeRosa brought us he was lauded for his presence in the clubhouse.
Ghost,
I agree with you 100% about last night's game. When you play a team like the Mets who pretty much know that they are not playing for anything this year you have to jump on them early. When Span Doubled to start the game I really hoped for a crooked number in the 1st.
Not just Werth, Zimmerman has to start producing in that situation as well. It's nice that he had a 3 HR game last week but a double in the 1st last night may have started the carousel spinning and maybe the Mets don't jump all over Haren right after that.
Section222, yes, easily replaceable because the bar is so low they can't do worse and I'd expect they would do a little better and maybe a lot better.
At least with Corey Brown you get other tools and he can run. Tracy when he gets on base just clogs up the base paths.
The Nats are .155 in PH BA this year which is dead last in the NL and for team's with at least 10 PH ABs makes them last in the entire Major Leagues!
The Nats are 11-71 right now and Philadelphia is 24-87 and Atlanta is 18-62. If you don't think that's a difference maker as a group and isn't costing games as a group you are mistaken.
I totally agree it's a big problem, believe me. I said so a few days ago when pointing out the big numbers that the Braves' reserves (Gattis, Schaffer, Pena) were putting up. Just not so sure the fix is as easy or certain as you suggest. But I truly hope we'll find out because the status quo is untenable.
JD, the turning point I said at the time last night was in the 1st inning when the new kid swung at a 3-0 pitch. Who gave the signal? Gee was almost out of breath. They let him off the hook. The Nats have ZERO hits this year when swinging 3-0. Both Werth and LaRoche have done it to horrific results if you remember.
Stop doing it unless you are way ahead! Why does this team have such an aversion to taking walks?????
Section222, you are thinking I said something I didn't say. It can't get any worse and try something as it might get better. Even marginally better is better. Maybe you get it up to .175. You just can't stay this bad. It's awful. They generally no longer even bother bringing in a lefty reliever to face Tracy any more.
Tracy needed to go along time ago. I love the guy. Great clubhouse and bench guy but he is lost at the plate. TyMo has options, send him back.
This season just gets curiouser and curiouser. The approach with runners on just dumbfounds me. If this truly is the team hitting philosophy, then it needs to change. What is it when you keep doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
JD...hate to tell you this, but the Mets are just about as good as the Nationals. You say they have little to play for this year??? And the Nats have more to play for??? Just wait until Wheeler comes up. I will put money on the Mets winning a World Series before the Nats ever do...the supposed Rizzo dynasty has collapsed before its infancy.
baseballswami, I feel the same way. I couldn't believe with the leadoff doubles that Werth didn't shoot that outside pitch to rightfield.
Later in the game with men on 2nd and 3rd and Span whiffs with 1 out.
The Nats had plenty of opportunities to claw their way back in but nothing bigger than blowing it wide open in the 1st with a crooked number!
Swami,
Here is the kicker. Davie does not play small, he never has. He does not believe in moving runners over, stealing bases etc. This does not necessarily make him wrong or unique. There are plenty of studies showing that a team will score more runs when it hits instead of bunting.
I think the issue is adopting to situations and execution. Ghost is exactly right in his take that Gee should have been at least bloodied in the 1st inning. He's not that good, he threw a lot of pitches and he was teetering and we let him off the hook.
There was another situation when we were down 1 - 5 and had men on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. Span cannot strike out in that situation, you have to find a way to foul pitches off until you can at least put the ball in play.
Alphabet Soup Erik said...
Jthe supposed Rizzo dynasty has collapsed before its infancy.
The framework for this team is a lot better. It's the moveable parts that need fixing.
They can easily next year bite the bullet and make LaRoche a bench player and move RZim to 1st if they need to then evaluate the 2nd base situation and put Rendon at 3rd.
The outfield is set and you just have to hope Span improves his offensive game and baserunning. Werth needs to stay healthy and it wouldn't hurt to get a good 4th outfielder who you can platoon in so Werth isn't playing 7 days in a row.
The Big 4 starters are all together next year and they will have internal and external candidates for the 5th starter.
The bullpen should be set for next year.
I would say the Nats look darn good for next year and with a few more changes to the bench this team can still put together a run this year.
Ghost:
Davey gave Rendon the green light on 3-0 as a confidence booster, I think. He hit a line shot right at the CF that would have been a double in the gap.
Erik,
Do you wish to make a friendly wager on the respective final position of the Mets vs. the Nats in 2013? I will even spot you 10 games.
There were 2 instances including the Span at-bat with ment on 2nd and 3rd that the Mets had the infield back. Put the darn bat on the ball!
JD, by the way, you owe me 2 drinks in your bet where I said Rendon would be playing 2nd. The other guy who also bet me is nowhere to be found. ;)
fast eddie said...
Ghost:
Davey gave Rendon the green light on 3-0 as a confidence booster, I think. He hit a line shot right at the CF that would have been a double in the gap.
June 06, 2013 12:36 PM
No doubt he smoked it and it was right at the CF, unlucky BABIP.
You get the same pitch on 3-1 if he can throw another strike. Gee was on the ropes. No way do you let him off.
Ghost,
I will be more than happy to buy you a couple of drinks.
As you know I am a big Rendon believer but I just worry about the kids long term ability to avoid a major ankle injury. Having said that there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Rendon will hit. I think Laddie is somewhat over the top when he says that Rendon will be the top hitting 2nd baseman in the NL this year but give me that approach every time.
I hate to say it Ghost, but my timetable has shifted to 2015-16. As long as Werth, Zimmerman and LaRoche are making up the meat of the order, I just don't see the Nationals being much of a threat. I would personally like to see Werth back at the lead-off spot, Rendon, Harper, Zimmerman, LaRoche, Desmond, Span, Ramos/Suzuki, P. I would even seriously consider hitting Span 9th and moving the P up to 8th with Strasburg, Zimmermann and Haren. Whatever the case, this offense remains anemic and I just can't envision a big turnaround with the current roster.
NatsJack in Florida said...
"I spent 17 seasons as an Orlando Twins season ticket holder sitting right behind home plate. AA baseball and sitting with scouts every nite will get you some pretty good insight into the finer points of the game."
I'm sure it did in your case, Jack, but after reading these comments and others for several years, I think there are some posters who could travel with the scouts every day for 17 years and not come away knowing which end of a baseball they're supposed to hold.
Can you imagine if they'd had a Internet at D-Day? "Fire Eisenhower!! We have no chance! I said so even before the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!"
JD-Talking more about the future. If Wheeler is as good as advertised (which is better than Harvey) they are going to get good real fast.
Im wondering why the home team looked so tired yesterday when it shouldve been the Mets looking ragged. Situational hitting was terrible.
I love Eriks proposal for the lineup.
I am astounded that some of these hitters go down with no contact. With contact they could bobble, it could get through or drop. At least battle and foul. Too much watching it go by. And the approach does have to change with the pitcher and the situation. But yet, even though Lombo found a way to get that run in, we heard comments about how his swing is not pretty like Rendon and those pitches he really should have stood there and passively watched. Valuing the sexy, flashy things instead of the everyday things that work. At this point they should be willing to try something else.
Just put you on NIDO JD. I'm surprised you're not on there already, but as the current leader in drinks owed, I welcome you aboard.
JD, if the team isn't taking precautions with ankle guards on Rendon then shame on them but you can't put him in bubble wrap. It was absolutely the right move and you could see with 2 of his swings last night that this kid is something special.
I think he will definitely be in the Top 3 of 2nd baseman BA in the 2nd half of 2013. If Eckstein has a brain he will do a highlight reel of every single and double Machado has hit this year. Stay away from Home Runs and any idea of getting under one. While he is at it let Span watch the video too.
I'm as despondent over the Nats' hitting last night as the next guy, but I found it interesting that both before and after the game, everyone was pointing out how crappy his ERA has been this year while not mentioning that in his last start he went 7 1/3 against the Yankees and gave up only 4 hits and 1 run. We ran into a hot pitcher as well as being incompetent with men on base.
Sort of kind of, Gee got better after the 1st inning but the Nats had him in the 1st. His breaking pitch to the rightys was deadly when he got it in the zone. The ump helped him much more than he deserved. Desi was should have walked and that was a big call in the game.
NEW POST
A hot pitcher? C'mon man!!! Was Freddy Garcia a hot pitcher too? What about the other 31 guys who have held this team to 2 runs or fewer this season? The offense has been dreadful.
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