Monday, April 1, 2013
2013 Media Predictions
Hey, guess what? It's baseball season! The Rangers and Astros played last night in Houston, and today there will be ballgames across the country, most notably here in the nation's capital.
Opening Day features its share of traditions, and for the last four years that has included the annual Nationals season predictions by those of us who cover the team on a regular basis. There were no shortage of potential categories to choose from this year, and I think we came up with some good ones.
Feel free to post your own predictions in the comments section below. And feel free to give us credit (or give us grief) come October once we know how we did...
WHICH NATS WILL BE SELECTED FOR THE ALL-STAR GAME?
Amanda Comak (Washington Times) -- Ian Desmond, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmermann
Craig Heist (WTOP) -- Tyler Clippard, Ian Desmond, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg
Chase Hughes (CSNwashington.com) -- Bryce Harper, Rafael Soriano, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann
Pete Kerzel (MASNsports.com) -- Ian Desmond, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg
Adam Kilgore (Washington Post) -- Ross Detwiler, Danny Espinosa, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg
Dan Kolko (MASNsports.com) -- Gio Gonzalez, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman
Bill Ladson (MLB.com) -- Ian Desmond, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman
Brian McNally (Washington Examiner) -- Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman
Joey Nowak (MLB.com) -- Tyler Clippard, Bryce Harper, Rafael Soriano, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman
James Wagner (Washington Post) -- Tyler Clippard, Ross Detwiler, Danny Espinosa, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg
Mark Zuckerman (CSNwashington.com) -- Ian Desmond, Ross Detwiler, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman
WHAT WILL TOTAL HOME ATTENDANCE BE?
Bill Ladson -- 3,000,000
Chase Hughes -- 2,900,000
James Wagner -- 2,900,000
Amanda Comak -- 2,835,000
Joey Nowak -- 2,830,000
Brian McNally -- 2,800,000
Mark Zuckerman -- 2,754,913
Craig Heist -- 2,700,000
Adam Kilgore -- 2,580,000
Dan Kolko -- 2,580,000
Pete Kerzel -- 2,567,795
HOW MANY HOMERS WILL BRYCE HARPER HIT?
Bill Ladson -- 40
Mark Zuckerman -- 39
Chase Hughes -- 34
Craig Heist -- 34
Adam Kilgore -- 33
Amanda Comak -- 33
Dan Kolko -- 31
James Wagner -- 31
Brian McNally -- 28
Joey Nowak -- 28
Pete Kerzel -- 27
WHERE WILL HARPER FINISH IN NL MVP VOTING?
Amanda Comak -- 1st
Adam Kilgore -- 1st
Bill Ladson -- 1st
Mark Zuckerman -- 1st
Craig Heist -- 2nd
Joey Nowak -- 2nd
Dan Kolko -- 3rd
James Wagner -- 3rd
Chase Hughes -- 4th
Brian McNally -- 5th
Pete Kerzel -- 18th
HOW MANY INNINGS WILL STEPHEN STRASBURG PITCH?
Bill Ladson -- 210
Craig Heist -- 210
Amanda Comak -- 203
Chase Hughes -- 202
Adam Kilgore -- 201
Brian McNally -- 198
Joey Nowak -- 198
Dan Kolko -- 196
James Wagner -- 195 2/3
Pete Kerzel -- 195
Mark Zuckerman -- 192 2/3
WHERE WILL STRASBURG FINISH IN NL CY YOUNG VOTING?
Dan Kolko -- 1st
Bill Ladson -- 1st
Joey Nowak -- 1st
Craig Heist -- 2nd
Pete Kerzel -- 2nd
Adam Kilgore -- 2nd
James Wagner -- 2nd
Amanda Comak -- 3rd
Chase Hughes -- 3rd
Brian McNally -- 3rd
Mark Zuckerman -- 3rd
WHO WILL LEAD THE PITCHING STAFF IN WINS? HOW MANY?
Bill Ladson -- Stephen Strasburg, 25
Amanda Comak -- Stephen Strasburg, 21
Pete Kerzel -- Stephen Strasburg, 21
Adam Kilgore -- Stephen Strasburg, 21
Joey Nowak -- Stephen Strasburg, 21
Chase Hughes -- Gio Gonzalez, 20
Mark Zuckerman -- Stephen Strasburg, 19
Craig Heist -- Gio Gonzalez, 19
Dan Kolko -- Jordan Zimmermann, 19
James Wagner -- Stephen Strasburg, 18
Brian McNally -- Stephen Strasburg, 17
WHO WILL BE THE 6TH PITCHER TO START A GAME? WHEN WILL IT HAPPEN?
Bill Ladson -- Chris Young, May 1 at Braves
Craig Heist -- Chris Young, May 5 at Pirates
Brian McNally -- Zach Duke, May 15 at Dodgers
Chase Hughes -- Zach Duke, May 16 at Padres
Mark Zuckerman -- Zach Duke, May 19 at Padres
Adam Kilgore -- Zach Duke, May 22 at Giants
Pete Kerzel -- Yunesky Maya, May 25 vs. Phillies
Amanda Comak -- Zach Duke, June 2 at Braves
James Wagner -- Zach Duke, June 9 vs. Twins
Dan Kolko -- Zach Duke, June 15 at Indians
Joey Nowak -- Ryan Perry, June 21 vs. Rockies
HOW MANY GAMES WILL WILSON RAMOS START?
Joey Nowak -- 106
Chase Hughes -- 105
Bill Ladson -- 100
Mark Zuckerman -- 94
James Wagner -- 92
Pete Kerzel -- 88
Amanda Comak -- 83
Craig Heist -- 80
Adam Kilgore -- 75
Brian McNally -- 70
Dan Kolko -- 68
HOW MANY ERRORS WILL RYAN ZIMMERMAN COMMIT?
Chase Hughes -- 18
Brian McNally -- 16
Joey Nowak -- 16
Mark Zuckerman -- 16
Craig Heist -- 15
James Wagner -- 15
Dan Kolko -- 14
Pete Kerzel -- 13
Amanda Comak -- 12
Adam Kilgore -- 12
Bill Ladson -- 10
HOW MANY SAVES WILL RAFAEL SORIANO RECORD?
Chase Hughes -- 47
Adam Kilgore -- 40
Joey Nowak -- 39
Mark Zuckerman -- 38
Brian McNally -- 36
Craig Heist -- 35
Dan Kolko -- 35
Amanda Comak -- 34
Pete Kerzel -- 32
James Wagner -- 31
Bill Ladson -- 15
HOW MANY SAVES WILL DREW STOREN RECORD?
Amanda Comak -- 16
Brian McNally -- 16
James Wagner -- 16
Joey Nowak -- 14
Craig Heist -- 12
Adam Kilgore -- 10
Bill Ladson -- 10
Dan Kolko -- 9
Mark Zuckerman -- 8
Chase Hughes -- 5
Pete Kerzel -- 3
HOW MANY BIG-LEAGUE GAMES WILL ANTHONY RENDON PLAY THIS YEAR?
Chase Hughes -- 65
Craig Heist -- 40
Brian McNally -- 35
James Wagner -- 35
Adam Kilgore -- 30
Joey Nowak -- 29
Amanda Comak -- 27
Bill Ladson -- 20
Dan Kolko -- 12
Mark Zuckerman -- 12
Pete Kerzel -- 6
HOW MANY GAMES WILL THE NATIONALS WIN?
Bill Ladson -- 108
Dan Kolko -- 102
Craig Heist -- 99
Joey Nowak -- 98
James Wagner -- 97
Amanda Comak -- 96
Chase Hughes -- 96
Pete Kerzel -- 96
Adam Kilgore -- 96
Brian McNally -- 95
Mark Zuckerman -- 95
HOW WILL THE NATIONALS' SEASON END?
Craig Heist -- Win World Series
Adam Kilgore -- Win World Series
Dan Kolko -- Win World Series
Bill Ladson -- Win World Series
Amanda Comak -- Lose World Series
Pete Kerzel -- Lose World Series
Joey Nowak -- Lose World Seres
James Wagner -- Lose World Series
Mark Zuckerman -- Lose World Series
Chase Hughes -- Lose NLCS
Brian McNally -- Lose NLCS
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38 comments:
6 hours and 52 mins is too long to wait but the offseason would have been unbearable without your blog. Thanks Mark!
I'm with Kilgore on Danny Espinosa, especially after reviewing Danny's stats and watching him this spring. Other than that, I'm not a predicting kinda person. Glad we got through all the fake games without serious injuries--> now it's for real!
I am truly jealous of those going to the park today. Root hard and turn your beer in whatever direction it is that will lead the Nats to victory. If the Astros can beat Texas (good work Maxwell and Ankiel!), then one can never simply put today's game in the win column. Punish the Fish, guys.
+1/2St.
I like that a few on your panel have Chris Young as our 6th starter. It's odd that nobody picked him up yet. I hope he goes to Syracuse and tears it up. Then I hope there is never a need for a 6th starter.
+1/2St.
Updated my post on today's game. The Marlins are platooning Ruggiano and Coghlan. Coghlan is going against the righty, even though Ruggiano has had a little success against Stras. Small sample sizes... Like yesterday's game--which was a lot of fun, good for Bo.
Marlins vs. Nats
http://ladyandthenats.blogspot.com/2013/03/who-are-these-fishy-guys.html
I'm with Mr. Zuckerman and 95.
CF gates open in less then 31/2 hours!
YOWSA!!!
Nice article about the Astros and Bo Porter.
Astros
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2013/04/01/houston-astros-look-to-tune-out-critics/2041311/
Got to love Ladson optimism. I am sticking with 102 regular season wins plus 11 post season wins
This is a weak subject...let the games begin for Gods sake. Here is my only prediction, at the end of the season the Nats pitcher with the best stats will be named Ross.
Yeah Mark, thanks for the blog alllllllllllll winter long!
And Mark, 95 is an improvement on last year's 84, but I'm going with 103 sportsfans. I predicted 92 last year. I too am hoping for big things from the new and improved box work of Espi.
Davey and Earl The Pearl had 100 win seasons with good teams. And this is a good team. Besides Davey is never wrong (except in Game 5 of the NLDS)! LOL
Way too many things to predict but I am pleased to see that Mark and Seamhead and I are settled in at 95 wins.
If Ladson was scoffed at and taken with a grain of salt before this, I am afraid he lost pretty much all credibility as an impartial reporter with his picks.
Since I am silly superstitious, I am changing the beer I drink before the game at Justin's. Just as a I change hats when we lose. Today's hat is one of my very favorites. White with a red brim and the blue Block W of 1925/26. In 25 we won the pennant going 96 - 55 that year. We had a pretty good fastballing starting pitcher that year named Johnson. Funny thing is, he only struck out 108 batters then entire season.
Go Nats!!!
Interesting to see the love for Ross Detwiler - which seems to be an acknowledgment that the WBC gave him a lot of visibility. Also nice to see how the number of Nats baseball writers has grown. I am going with 105 regular season wins, in honor of 105 Nats Insider posts for March, as good a superstitious reason as any!
It's come at last. The day I knew would surely come has come at last!
Finally, our long winter is done. Thanks Mark for helping to get us here and keeping us in a baseball frame of mind!
Aaaaaah-,it's today!!!!! Who peed in Kerzel's Wheaties, by the way? Not much confidence there.
Am way behind in reading posts and comments after a busy weekend. Need to do some catching up around the house as well, before heading to the ballpark for - wait for it - real live baseball!! Second, er, third the thanks to Mark (and Chase) keeping us fed and watered through the long winter.
Let's go, NATS!!
More coffee, please.
And in closing, woooooooooooo!! (Forget what comes next but I know that Michele will pick me up...)
Even though I'm taking the day off, I woke up early and certainly can't go back to bed, so I'll throw my hat in the ring with predictions:
All Stars -- Desi, Harper, Stras, JZnn, ALR
Attendance -- 2.5 million
Harper's Homers - 34
Harper in MVP -- 2
Stras's innings -- 190
Stras in Cy Young -- 4
Wins Leader -- Det & Stras 18
6th Starter -- Duke May 22
Ramos's starts -- 110
Zim's errors -- 16
Soriano's saves -- 43
Storen's saves -- 10
Rendon's G's - 14
Nat's wins - 99
As for the end result, this I'm just not going to predict. I'm just going to enjoy the ride.
Ok...ok.....my legs feel good, arm is over the "dead"stage. I told Davey I'm ready to go. PLAY BALL!!!
My prediction - no one will have a better opening day than @stephanats and @TCippardsSpecs - please wish them well as they begin their life together with the best of all opening day traditions, a wedding!
Ah, yes, daffodils are blooming, flox are spreading, pitchers and catchers popping up everywhere. Oh,what a glorious morning, oh what a glorious day!
This site is back--thank goodness. Enjoy.
You can't predict baseball
http://www.youcantpredictbaseball.com/?p=2626
LOL Big Cat.
Several years ago, I had surgery on my left shoulder in January. As I showed up to work in a sling, someone asked if I would be recovered for baseball season. I answered that fortunately I was right handed. But even more fortunately, to be ready I only needed to be able raise my beer from cup holder to mouth.
I still think the problem with stras is he tries to strike too many out, drives his pitch count up and never goes past 7 innings, he needs to be like verlander if the guy wants to get payed like him #Cattitude #Nattitude
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ej-dionne-hopes-opening-day/2013/03/31/99753110-9888-11e2-b68f-dc5c4b47e519_story.html
GYFNG!
Article on Nats Spring Training location and attendance.
record crowds
http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20130401/SPORTS/304010006/Washington-Nationals-attract-record-crowds-Space-Coast
The odd thing about Ladson's predictions is that he has the Nats winning 108 games while Soriano and Storen get only 25 saves between them. That means either someone else takes over the closer role or we win 83 games by more than three runs!
As to predictions, I'll give my surprise success stories of the year as Detwiler, Espinosa and Ramos, all of whom will make the All Star team and be in contention for postseason awards. Harper will, too, but that doesn't seem to be a surprise. I think he'll hit at least .330, but I don't see him among the upper ranges of the writers' predictions on HR's. That will happen next year.
Wow, most of these guys have 5 Nats going to the All Star game? Ladson has 25 Ws for Stras, and 108 Ws for the club? Little over the top.
NL East back to back would be great, but the Braves and Phils are not going to be push-overs here. I just hope that they play quality baseball, maintain good health and make the post season.
Headed out for my 9th straight home opener, very excited -- Best 25 have come North! Go Nats!! Have a great day of baseball everyone.
dfh21
Really hope our 6th pitcher is neither Maya or Perry. Media seems down on Gio even though he had a very good spring.
All I can say is Go Bill Ladson.
Mark Zuckerman has BHarp MVP! Me too!
I am gonna give this a try:
All Stars -- Harper, Strasburg, Zimmermann
Attendance -- 2.72 million
Harper's Homers - 31
Harper in MVP -- 5
Stras's innings -- 193
Stras in Cy Young -- 5
Wins Leader -- Zimmermann 19
6th Starter -- Duke May 22
Ramos's starts -- 100
Zim's errors -- 11
Soriano's saves -- 39
Storen's saves -- 6
Rendon's G's - 9
Nat's wins - 96
As some wag said, it's very hard to make predictions, especially about the future.
So all I will add to the mix is that, as in most seasons, the end result this year will not much resemble the preseason predictions. I don't know what that means (the Nats may still win the WS) and what the huge surprises may be. I hope they include Stras and Harper maturing even faster than predicted and blowing everyone's socks off! And maybe Espi, too!
I think Ladson picked 108 wins so the Nats would become the first team in history to improve by 10 or more games four cosecutive years - 2009-59 wins to 2010-69 wins to 2011-80 wins to 2012-98 wins to 2013-108 wins.
I however, do not quite share his optimism. While it's true that between Henry and Lidge we lost a few games we should have won last year and we were without Morse, Zim and Werth for long stretches and Ramos for almost the entire year, it's hard to see LaRoche duplicating last season, and we don't have Morse at all (though a full season of Tyler Moore off the bench should be fun to watch) and who knows if this is Danny's year to do what Desmond did last year...my win total prediction is:
103 wins
My eternally pessimistic father (lifelong Cubs fan, so you can understand) has predicted 88 wins.
So I'm going with 103, NL pennant, and a meeting with Detroit in the World Series, with no prediction on the outcome of that, just can't wait to see it.
So now that the Spring Training countdown has been replaced by the Opening Day Countdown which is finally down to zero...do we replace that with our Magic Number? ;)
Ah, what the hay.
All Stars -- Harper, Desmond, Gio, Ramos
Attendance -- 2.5 million
Harper's Homers - 47
Harper in MVP -- 2
Stras's innings -- 133
Stras in Cy Young -- also-ran
Wins Leader -- Gio and Znn tied at 21
6th Starter -- Duke
Ramos's starts -- 120
Zim's errors -- 16
Soriano's saves -- 39
Storen's saves -- 10
Rendon's G's - 0
Nat's wins - 103
And I'm optimistic LaRoche and Desmond can approximate their production from last season, Harper will exceed everyone's expectations except his own and Davey's, but Strasburg, alas, won't hold up.
Sec3, Ramos as an All-Star! I love it!
All Stars -- Harper, Desmond, JZim
Attendance -- 2.59 million
Harper's Homers - 32
Harper in MVP -- 1
Stras's innings -- 182
Stras in Cy Young -- 3rd
Wins Leader -- JZim at 22
6th Starter -- Duke
Ramos's starts -- 118
Zim's errors -- 14
Soriano's saves -- 39
Storen's saves -- 9
Rendon's G's - 22
Nat's wins - 97
Stras pitches around 195 innings following in Jordan Zimmermann's shoes. He wins at least 20 games.
Tyler Moore is your dark horse All Star candidate.
Ladson thinks the Nationals will win 108 games with a combined 25 saves from Soriano and Storen?
Ladson thinks the Nationals will win 108 games with a combined 25 saves from Soriano and Storen?
Ladson probably still thinks Vlad Guerrero is still with this franchise.
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