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| Photo by USA Today |
Stephen Strasburg did not have his best stuff in Saturday’s 3-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves, his curveball did not have the usual break or precision and his changeup kept finding its way into the dirt. But despite not being sharp, the Nats’ ace did all he could to put his team into position to win. And if it weren’t for a two-out throwing error by Ryan Zimmerman in the fourth inning, he may have kept Atlanta off the board altogether.
Strasburg’s pitch count was high early on, but he had the Braves on the ropes in the fourth with two outs and nobody on. He induced a weak grounder by Justin Upton towards Zimmerman who rushed the routine throw and missed Adam LaRoche at first by several feet. It was Zimmerman’s second throwing error in as many games and once again proved a deciding factor in the team’s loss.
The next batter, Evan Gattis, promptly took a high fastball deep into left-center over the visitor’s bullpen for a two-run shot. The Braves never looked back on their way to winning the second of this weekend’s three game series.
“I should have set my feet, that’s why it’s so frustrating,” Zimmerman said. “That’s why it’s so frustrating, I had more time and I should have just set my feet and made a strong throw like I’ve been doing all year on those balls.”
86 comments:
Mark, you think, lol.
Well, if there was a way to bet with all of the posters earlier that were throwing Ryan under the bus, I'd be willing to call in dogs, sell the farm, and bet you that Zimmerman will win a lot more games for us then he loses.
I was accused on the Instant Analysis blog of never saying anything positive. Maybe I'm delusional, but I think I do post mostly positive things, but I am guilty of going into attack mode defending our players, managers, and GM. People will always second guess baseball managers, that's a God given American right. But when someone questions Johnson's intelligence, and his ability to manage, on this Nats Insider, I get a little testy.Hell, I question some of his decisions almost every game, but the man has the second highest winning percentage of any living MLB manager.Yeah, right, and the likes of any of us could do better.And then to disagree with Rizzo,is I believe, a guaranteed right that's allowed in one of the Constitution's Bill of Rights, but come on, do any of you really think you could do what he's done in last three years?
Lastly, I am so sorry that Mark Zuckerman had to come on the blog on his day off to ask the posters on the game thread to please behave themselves.
A deciding factor--maybe. But this is where the human eye falters. Zim's error only cost because Gattis hit a homerun after him, and because the Nats' offense couldn't score two runs in eight innings. The WPA of that play was -.014--no worse than a 2 out walk or single. If Gattis had homered in the first inning, would we be saying a "deciding factor" in the loss was Stras hitting Heyward with only one out? The WPA on that was worse, -.024. It's frustrating, and it stands out, but keep things in perspective while you are trashing Zim. Play Log 4/13 http://www.fangraphs.com/liveplays.aspx?date=2013-04-13&team=Nationals&dh=0&season=2013
The fact is, Hudson/O'Flaherty/Kimbrall were on their games, and that's a tough combo to beat.
That said, Zim is kidding himself if he thinks he's been making "strong throws" all season. Every one of us can point to weak throws, off-line throws, throws that ALR prevented from being errors. It's more realistic to say, "Due to my recovery/rehab, I started spring training late, and my shoulder is still weak. It'll get there, but it isn't there yet." That is approximately what Werth said about his wrist.
NatsLady, you have always made informed posts, but I do believe you are off to a helluva start this year.
We scored one run, Stras needed a million pitches to go a meager number of innings. Ryan 's error stood out because of the runs. Stras threw the pitch. Lots of Nats making mistakes. I, too, have been taking issue with throwing Zim under the bus. But I don 't see the problem with questioning managing decisions as long as it is respectful. I think we can question lots of things or express concern- that's normal as long as it's not nasty.
I believe in spite of what Zim says, his shoulder is affecting his throws.
On another note, I believe all our pitchers have been having problems locating their pitches. this is making it a lot tougher winning games. Hopefully as the weather heats up, our pitchers will improve their mechanics.
Speaking of throws, has anybody mentioned that the kid who threw out the ceremonial first pitch was money? Maybe he could coach John Wall. Just a thought.
Also, talking about throws, that was a pretty good one from Bryce to Ramos early in the game.
On a happy note- HRod did not give up a run today or kill anyone with a pitch. Progress.
As far as pitching goes, I'm not too concerned yet. Here's a good read:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/13/still-too-early-to-worry-about-faltering-aces/#comments
STARTING pitching that is. Bullpen is worrisome.
also, Manassas Nats Fan mentioned it earlier, and I thought it earlier when it happened, but when Simmons bunted a ball in the air to Matheus with nobody out, men on first and second, if Matheus drops it we could have probably turned a triple play.There was no sign of an Infield Fly Rule from the umpire. Both runners froze to the bags.
I don't think stats come with a category called "winning games for us." We do have WAR, though. Ryan was 7.1 WAR player in 2009. So he won 7 games above his replacement that year. Every year since his WAR has declined. From 6 in 2010, 1.6 in 2011, and 3.8 in 2012. Its not a straight decline, but clearly a decline. Moreover, that decline occurred during a player's prime years of 25-28. He currently has a -.3 WAR. In contrast, Bryce had a 5.2 WAR as a 19 year old. I bet it goes up this year, even with change in position. So Ryan Zimmerman really isn't going to be winning much for us, from a statistical perspective. There's no indication that the cause in his decline in WAR has been addressed. I would say its time to add to team WAR by moving him to first and adding a young third baseman with a higher WAR ceiling.
Seamhead, the infield fly rule does not apply when there is a bunt. That is how LaRoche got a doubleplay last year, he waved off the pitcher, let the ball drop and got the outs. Mattheus just went on instinct when he caught that ball.
Here is the play.
ALR dropped bunt
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=23575771&c_id=mlb
Infield fly except for bunt and line drive
less than 2 outs, runners on at least 1b or 2b and not on a bunt or line drive. now, what a line drive is define by the umpire is subjective, just ask the Braves about that in the NL one game playoff last October, lol
Simmonds slammed his bat down and didn't leave the box, Mattheus lets ot drop throw third then secon then first. Because the runners retreated I think triple play more 50% chance. But Ramos probably didnt coach him.
What Zimmerman's WAR is right now is absolutely meaningless. We're 10 games into the season for God's sake. Zimmerman put up MVP numbers the 2nd half of last season. He'll break out of his slump. If he puts up a WAR of around 4 again, I'll be perfectly fine with that.
Moving him to first in a couple years is a good idea, but for now, he's the third baseman. There is nobody ready to take over that role for him--including Mr. Rendon, who has proved absolutely nothing yet.
I know that, but thanks for clarifying it.My point is it was another missed opportunity. Every fielder is taught at an early age to look at the situation before every pitch and ask themselves, "what am I going to do with the ball if it's hit to me?" Ryan M. didn't think.
I agree with David Proctor. Zimm will probably end up at first...in 2015. Right now, he is playing 3rd.
I agree with David Proctor. Zimm will probably end up at first...in 2015. Right now, he is playing 3rd.
Make that sometime in 2014 unless LaRoche has an MVP caliber year (unlikely). There will most likely be a new manager and Rizzo might pencil Rendon in third and Zimmerman at first earlier than you might expect.
It all depends on what happens this season.
That was awesome. Ramos was practically sitting there tapping his foot, looking at his watch, and so on while waiting for the runner to get there so he could tag him.
Joe Seamhead said...
Also, talking about throws, that was a pretty good one from Bryce to Ramos early in the game.
April 13, 2013 7:27 PM
That is a pity. Guess I won't be reading the game thread.
Lastly, I am so sorry that Mark Zuckerman had to come on the blog on his day off to ask the posters on the game thread to please behave themselves.
Seamhead, well said at 7:03.
I turned on the tv sound when they interviewed Det, and was really struck by his comments about Zuk. For those at the game he said it was Zuk that told him last year he had to develop another pitch, and has put in a lot of time working with him. Wonder if that is how Zuk spends everyday since we have lots more pitchers than catchers.
Zimmerman's statistical decline is important because it hinders Bryce's development. Bryce has historically great talent. If you stick a 4 WAR batter behind him (which is generous), then they will simply not give Bryce pitches, and he won't develop a batting approach. You may need to juggle the lineup while you wait to spend money on a good bat in the short run like the Cardinals did when they picked up Holliday to protect Pujols. I would bring up Rendon sooner just to see.
Oh, and tell Steve in Alexandria that the bobbleheads were awesome, and the unis spectacular. There were some very nice hair-do's on the field as well. Now, how many strikes is it until you're out? I get so confused. :-)
(What can I say? It's like slowing down to rubberneck at a car wreck.)
good one 1a
glad I wasn't eating
According to FanGraphs, a 4 WAR player is a borderline All-Star. I think protection is generally overrated, but even if we assume it makes a difference, Zimmerman is plenty protection for Bryce.
Sonny, I'm with you. In spring training pregame loosening up, RZ could barely play soft toss. Ive heard people say its mental, but it sure doesn't seem like that to me.
David Proctor, ask Giancarlo Stanton if protection is over-rated.
I wad on and off the game thread . On at first to get insulted, then in and out. Missed the disciplinary visit from the blog-Dad but glad it happened. Hopped back on later. I know we all are passionate about baseball and the Nats, but I have experienced tragedy in my life and losing a baseball game or two does not qualify in the least. I think we need to have a Vegas type attitude in the first hour- whatever you say when venting I will overlook. After a few hours I expect that perspective will start appearing. By morning, more reasonable analysis. Then, move on.
Whatever is wrong with Ryan Zimmerman, and there's certainly something wrong, there's been a history of some combination of Ryan/team not fully disclosing injuries of which the shoulder and abdominal injuries were significant and the team suffered with Ryan's prolonged slumps.
You can check the history that when Ryan is hitting the team is winning so as they say as Ryan goes the team goes.
Also, his comments are very far fetched and either he is dilusional or full of s---.
Johnny Cueto just hurt himself in the tricep area. He's out of the ballgame.
I'm not going to say Zimmerman is hurt just yet because again, it's ELEVEN GAMES. But if his slump is prolonged, I will begin to assume that the team isn't disclosing something.
The tide has turned with Ryan Zimmerman and the fanbase. Two years ago you couldn't say a negative word about Zim because he was treated like a man that walked on water.
I remember here a few years ago when someone here said was hiding that abdominal injury and they were calling it a groin injury and eventually the truth came out and it was the abdominal injury and he needed surgery but that poster caught a lot of grief for questioning Zim.
I don't think Ryan is newly injured, but I do think he is back at a lesser percent than he has said. It was late in spring training when he started to throw and very late when he started to play the field. He really did not have much spring training and so he is understandably behind in fielding. He usually needs less at bats as a hitter, and he started hitting before he started throwing. I see him building back up slowly but surely and having a solid season. When he gets hot, look out.
@Gonat, When the team is working on improving, playing through an injury is acceptable to the fan base, but when yo are the favorite, the fan base is expect quakity play all the time.
His hitting comes and goes all the time. We are used to that.
Throwing has become an issue only the last few years.
I want him back to 100%, not gone.
Made a decision to NOT read game comments. Just too much hatred and I would probably say something silly as well. I just want to enjoy the game, keep trying to learn what others think, and stay happy. Sorry if others are bringing NI down.
Probably a good decision, 308.
Seamhead and 308 unfortunately I am with you on that. Signing out for a few weeks.
What I want to say about the bobblehead is that Gio isn't smiling. How do you get the singular thing about him so wrong that they made him not smile? It couldn't have been hard to put a big grin on him, as he exists in his natural state.
Sabermetrics: the Last Refuge of the baseball novice, aka: the know-nothings.
Zimmerman's throw has absolutely nothing to do with his shoulder period, end of statement; it has everything to do with his psyche -- that's why its been covered up and continues to be so. Remember the blurb in the Post last year that stated that the team had hired a psychiatrist for Zimmerman and another player whose name alludes me at the moment.
And it was this very poster that stated several seasons ago that zim did not have a groin injury but an abdominal tear -- the over the top attacks from that time soured me permanently on the humanity of many of the posters on this forum, not excluding several who posted today. I was correct then, and I am correct now.
People around here think Zimmerman is the Cal Ripken Jr. of Washington D.C. He isn't. He is quite overrated. Watching him play baseball is becoming exhausting. He blatantly lies about his injuries (don't blame him for that) but every team in the league knows he is hurt. Werth seems to have lied in the opposite direction. Zim sees nothing but outside fastballs and the occasional curve. The worst he will do is double over the RF's head...big deal. At least he CAN go the other way to keep from becoming completely useless right now. Still, the throwing problem isn't going away, and unless he hits 30/100, this is becoming a huge problem. He lost both games this weekend with little league plays, and I have yet to see him drive a ball to LF this year. It seems like he is 40 years old with the constant injuries. He has made 1 All-Star game and is always hurt. He hit .218 with 3 HR and 22 RBI through 70 games last year. I don't think they can survive that again. You don't get paid the money he makes to be a non-factor so much of the time.
So what you're saying Joe Seams is that you believe in a person's right to their opinion unless YOU, Joe Seams, believes it's ridiculous. In that case, then, you, Joe Seams, have the right to personally attack that person, whoever it is, for criticizing a manager or a player for poor management and playing skills. Are you kidding?
I think what frustrates many fans (the one's many call 'Haters") is being made the fool. We see Zimmerman's throws; we know that no team would play a player who throws (or doesn't throw) the way Zimmerman does. Our eyes tell us the obvious. But Davey, Zimmerman, Rizzo, and many on this Forum tell us we are crazy, that we are haters, that WE are fools for commenting that something is wrong with Zimmerman. Now, at least, we are all in agreement that something is wrong -- now all that's left to find is What exactly is the problem: his head or his shoulder. But please, don't pour water on our backs and tell us its raining.
Are we just forgetting that Zimmerman put up massive numbers in the 2nd half of next year? You guys make it sound like he's decrepit.
Also, calling people who follow sabermetrics "know nothings" is an absolute joke.
Steve J, Alexandria said...
And it was this very poster that stated several seasons ago that zim did not have a groin injury but an abdominal tear --
______________________________________
What name were you going under then because I went back and checked and it was Steve M. who broke that news and was lambasted for it. Are you telling us you are Steve M.?
I would love to see Zim move about 2-3 inches closer to the plate. Cal used to always try new things. When the pitch is on the black, Zim can't reach it
Man, how did the game thread find me way over here?
BigCat, yah, that has been a point of discussion here for a while. I had taped previous broadcasts and I think it was Thursday's game where FP also made mention that the book on Zim for opposing teams was to pound him on the outside edge.
I saw 3 members of beloved bullpen, two of whom blew Fridays game, sucking downs beers at the Caps game tonight. Interesting? Are the Nats off tomorrow? What next chicken and beer in the pen. Just like them BO SOX
Secret wasian man, that's a fine line there to get critical so long as they weren't plastered.
Maybe I am just getting old. Well I know I am. Just seems a little odd to me. Go nats
Yeah, and Gio was at the soccer game. What do you do after a tough day at work? Should they be in time out? I actually think it was quite ironic that they had to watch the Caps blow a big lead and have to go into overtime. Were they having flashbacks? Not like they were missing practice or it was 3 am. They actually are human beings. Sometimes getting away from your own crap and relaxing makes you more productive.
Sabermetrics does have a valuable place in the pantheon of the game -- especially valuable in selecting draft choices, which is its genesis anyway.
But so many 'new' fans or fans who have never played the game love the "numbers' and like to depend on Saber numbers to Settle all discussion - to end all discussions: in other words: they believe the game of baseball and the ability of any player can be crunched down to a single number. And that is a Joke!
I would not pin that on saber people, but I would say that about fantasy geeks. Seems like the fantasy team people know very little about the game or the players.
Oh no, this is so getting weird. Now we have Forum posters who are moonlighting as National's Morality Police, spying on players out on their free time having a beer? All the while these players are out and about supporting pro sports in the community and trying to be a part of the Washington Sports scene? This is over the top. Kinda sick.
Swami: I think you can honestly hang it on both Sabermetric geeks and the Fantasy folk.
Secret, I am with you on the old piece but I have figured out that some athletes drink and smoke. Maybe not all of them but as long as they are in moderation, it is what it is. Has to be tough for them to live a regular life when they are under the microscope in today's culture. I would rather see our guys out trying to relax then sitting in a room staring at the ceiling or watching video of themselves. Again, not supporting going out and getting hammered but one or two beers doesn't sound like a problem. If its the two I think, they should both be ready for tomorrow after Davey finally let the other two members of the bullpen play today.
Go Nats!!
Gonat: That is correct. Notice the 'M' is just below the "j" on the key board. I initially and clumsily mis-typed the last initial -- and changed it to the Correct Steve 'J' later.
In other management moves around the division: the Phillies used one of their two truly great pitchers, Cliff Lee, as a pinch runner tonight for their ailing third baseman. I.e., the player they could least afford to lose to injury. Seems pretty crazy to me.
Steve J, Alexandria said...
Gonat: That is correct. Notice the 'M' is just below the "j" on the key board. I initially and clumsily mis-typed the last initial -- and changed it to the Correct Steve 'J' later.
April 13, 2013 11:03 PM
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Steve J, Alexandria, we all know Steve M. now known as Ghost of Steve M. and you aren't him. How low can you be to try to steal someone elses posts as your own.
Next you will claim to be NatsJackFl?
Sean Burnett in with bases loaded and quickly gives up a single to the Houston Astros. Inherited runners scoring!
Now Burnett just got suicide squeezed and just gave up another inherited run.
Secret Wasian, the positive is that the 3 are hanging out together and that is good. I really believe if players like each other that half the equation to winning has been accomplished
just remembered an old Billy Martin story from 1969... he was Twins manager, was drunk at a bar in Minneapolis after a loss, his pitcher (20 game winner that year) Dave Boswell (no relation to DC Bos, lol) was in same the bar. They got into a heated verbal exchange and it may have been a first, but the Martin punched out his pitcher. somehow I could never see Davey Johnson doing that, lol
Mick, I agree. You need a cohesive clubhouse where everyone has each other's back!
you got it Gonat! that is the key to baseball, any team sport and life in general, you have each others backs
mick said...
Secret Wasian, the positive is that the 3 are hanging out together and that is good. I really believe if players like each other that half the equation to winning has been accomplished
April 13, 2013 11:24 PM
Good one mick. I agree.
well, speaking of drinking hee hee, time for old Mick to down a few more Corona Lights,
see you all tomorrow
GO NATS!!!
I don't think stats come with a category called "winning games for us." We do have WAR, though. Ryan was 7.1 WAR player in 2009.
I never use WAR ... unless I am quoting someone from Fangraphs. Its way to coarse grained for me ...
So Bryce is off to a good start ay DJB? Same thing happened last year. And in SPITE of his injury Zim finished with a 21.9 BatV overall offensive rating while Bryce finished around 18.6.
The same thing will happen this year Zim will recover and the bat will come around and that is what will get the offense going. As someone mentioned its Zim's bat that really makes the offense go. But he needs some protection on both sides. Harper provides enough on one but he needs Tyler Moore on the other.
And Steve J. is full of crap about claiming Ryan had an abdominal injury. I was saying all along that something was wrong but its kind of hard to know what it is with that guy ... he and the team like to cover up as much as possible. I don't remember anyone saying he had an abdominal tear and I was here getting slashed as much as anyone.
Of course with Davey that won't be possible. H'e still recovering from the surgery. His shoulder will come around ... unless he re-injures it of course.
AND AS I SAID early on (not Steve J Oriholes fan) Zim is still recovering. I said it in the spring. I also said they need his bat and that's why they are going to move him to first base where he will be a gold glove fielder. And Anthony Rendon will be at third base. Barring injury.
And I got hammered for stating that ...
Steve J from AlexandraTrollia? Orihole fan.
On another note it looks like Eury Perez injured his wrist in the home opener at NBT park. Corey Brown moves back into CF and Luke has fun keeping up with the domino effect of moves which might follow Perez's injury and Solano's call up to replace Ramos.
The cold and rain plus a bizarre play where Rivero missed a tag in a rundown apparently put a damper on the Chief's offense and it was looking like Syracuse could be promoted to the majors like they do in soccer.
only thing I drink is Maalox.
Tomorrow is my second game of the season.
I expect a victory.
That's discouraging about Burnett. Angels won the game, though. I feel for Pujols, playing when he really should be on the DL.
At the two week point. DL list in MLB is getting lengthy with some big names. Now the Nats are affected. A brawl with suspensions. Big name teams and players under performing, new names becoming household names. Looks like the season is well underway.
baseballswami, the amount of injuries that occured in the last few days is mind blowing.
Greinke, Reyes, and now Cueto. Then you have Pujols who is still playing with the foot problem, Stanton with a shoulder contusion, Beckham with a broken wrist, Morse with a broken pinkie, Cespedes with his hand injury.
Then you have the Astros playing the Angels and lose in a walkoff but the Astros are still ahead of the Angels in the standings!
ALERT: Fashion statement.
Was going to wear my Gio jersey but have swapped it out for my Ramos jersey. Get well soon, Wilson!
I tend to follow the larger picture of MLB and not just the Nats. There has been a lot going on and a lot of things that have been surprising. The Angels and Blue Jays for example.
baseballswami, not surprised about the Blue Jays and all those trades are looking real bad for them now. Jose Reyes out for 2 months and Josh Johnson has looked terrible and RA Dickey has not been Cy quality.
BTW, here's a MLB injury list. Didn't even realize Jeter was just put on the DL also.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/injuries/
I was just reading NatsLady's piece on CFs with Justin Maxwell leading all of MLB in CF WAR. Too early but the surprising part of the list is all the CFs at the bottom are full of All Stars.
On Denard Span, he's near the Top of CFs and his baserunning is at 0 WAR. That has been by far the weakest part of his game. He promised when he was traded that he would work on baserunning and he was awful in Spring Training with 2 pickoffs of which 1 made him look Little League kind of like him getting doubled off 2nd in the 1st inning yesterday.
I think as the game went on yesterday, Denard's brain f-rt was kind of forgotten after Zim's error.
What could have been we will never know.
Woke up on a quiet Sunday morning to look up relative statistics for Ryan and some other players. Actually, if you look at the last two years, his dWAR is negative. Almost all of his declining total WAR comes from oWAR. LaRoche, with the exception of last year, was at replacement value. His dWAR is not significant and his historic OPS is middling. You can move Zimmerman to first, bring up a better fielding third baseman, and actually increase team WAR in the short term. We're not talking about single year statistics, either. The biggest concern from an offensive perspective is that the team has no one approaching Matt Holliday's OPS to back up Bryce. I will be looking to see who could fill that role in the off-season. As the post is about Ryan, I won't comment on the pen, which is our greatest concern.
"I want a Ryan Zimmerman jersey"
-Braves fans
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