Thursday, August 2, 2012
Beltway Baseball - 8/2/12
Did Mike Rizzo make the right decision standing pat at the trade deadline? How might the deals made by other NL contenders affect the Nationals down the stretch? What's up with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper's recent struggles?
CSNwashington.com's Chase Hughes, the Washington Times' Amanda Comak and I discussed all that and more during our latest episode of Beltway Baseball. We also answered your questions on several subjects.
Enjoy the show!
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132 comments:
No. I would have traded for a middle infielder (Scutaro) given the injuries to Desmond and Zimmerman's chronic problems. Also, it would have strengthened their bench over DeRosa.
I just don't understand this continuing dialogue over whether the Nats should have made a deadline move. None of us know what teams were asking for players the Nationals might have targeted. How can you evaluate the wisdom of a decision without knowing one-half of the equation?
Saying the Nats should have made a move is like saying a person should get a Mercedes SLK. Of course everyone should get one if they're handing them out for free- it's a nice. well-made car. The question is: how much does it cost and can you afford it?
Rizzo was right to not make any trades, but he's missed some clear opportunities to upgrade the team.
George Kottaras would have been a really big upgrade on Flores/Leon/everyone else. Flores has been very bad for a while now. Perhaps, the pitchers aren't helping but his ability to stop runners is abysmal (he's only caught 10% of runners compared to 26% league average). Kottaras was released by the Brewers and would not have cost anything. His bat is above average, but his defense below average. All together, he'd be better than what we're getting from Flores.
Rizzo also needs to get creative about our MIF situation. DeRosa hasn't been major league worthy since 2009. Furthermore, he's a pretty terrible option at 2B these days. I'm not really sure why we're keeping him around...
His role could very easily be replaced by Mike Fontenot. The Phillies just DFA'd him. He's a good defender that can play 2B, SS and 3B. He hits like a MIF, but was playing pretty well with the Phillies (.289/.343/.340). Just the defense alone would be a huge boost in case Lombo or Espinosa gets injured, and that bat wouldn't be much of a drag. All things considered (especially looking at the Scutaro deal), Fontenot should cost next to nothing, perhaps just cash considerations.
There will be opportunities for waiver trades. The Nats are at a crossroads here of deciding whether they are WS contenders or playoff pretenders.
Of course everything looks great for next year, but like this year, the injury bug hit hard so you never know what next year will bring-hopefully even better.
Team chemistry is great. Harper will show huge improvement next year as will Strasburg.
Just to pile on, Flores has batted .159/.182/.175 over the last month, while batting in front of the pitcher (where you always get better pitches and more walks). Something's gotta give.
Will, I didn't even add Wilson Ramos coming back next year. The plan is for him to play some winter ball towards the end of that season and be fully 100% for Spring Training.
Flores will go back to thriving as a part-time catcher. He just can't take the rigors of playing everyday.
The Nats can work in the off-season on replacing EJax as the #4 and I think getting/figuring out what they need at centerfield.
Eury Perez will be up in September as will Corey Brown. Goodwin is progressing. Rizzo may opt to stay in-house for 2013 CF using Harper.
Ghost Of Steve M. said...
Will, its a tough audience here. Wilson Ramos took a lot of crap about not throwing out runners and not blocking some of Henry's Wild Pitches.
The way I commented then and now is that Wilson Ramos is a future All Star catcher. Last year he was a rookie. Give him time and he will be one of the best. He's a great play caller, above average arm, average defender and will improve his defense especially on receiving outfield throws, and as we know Ramoose can ram the ball on offense.
We were spoiled with Ramos and Pudge for the past 2 years
I think CF is down the list of things needed to improve during this off season. A no. 4 or No. 5 starter (depends how you rate Detwiler) should be a priority; the catching situation needs some attention and of course the bench as usual gets revamped.
Ramos was the real deal and yes he's way below average on receiving throws but he is coming off 2 knee surgeries. We need some insurance if the come back trail is longer than hoped.
IMO if Ramos comes back Flores won't so it may be a good idea to plan on a veteran backup while we develop Solano and Leon.
Thanks Mark for clearing up playoff rosters.
I realize several posters have us finishing in last place this year but those of us who have been dreaming about this will just muster on. It really was more simple than I thought and its basically the 40 man roster as of 8/31 will be who we have to make those choices from.
I too am worried about catcher and middle infield depth but will not rant or fire anyone. I have to believe in Rizzo's evaluations and decisions and hope for the best.
Putting myself out there just a bit, I am really hoping and looking forward to Werth making a big difference on this team. I liked him last year even as he struggled. He ran the bases with great skill & his defense was also a plus. He did not hit but was willing to hit anywhere in the order as Riggs tried a different line-up combination almost daily. I think Davey likes a set lineup and that will help him. I don't know if they will gamble on this but he might be an excellent lead-off guy once Desmond comes back and Lombo moves to his utility role. What I dread is a slow start for Werth which will bring out even more gloom & doom, but you would think we would all be used to that on this site by now.
I want to point out what I think the difference between gloom & doom and constructive criticism is. I am all for differing views as long as there is civility. The "fire Davey", fire Rizzo, fire Bo Porter, fire the roster stuff is just silly. Both Peric & JayB can bring up valid points and when Peric is civil, he makes excellent points most of the time. They back their criticism with figures and while I don't always agree its worth the analysis.
Looking to get this last game tonight and quiet the negativity.
Go Nats!!
Steve, I don't think the Nats should have given up much value for a back up catcher (as you mentioned Ramos is coming back next year), I'm just saying there's a giant gaping hole at catcher right now. There's dozens of catchers who could put up better numbers than Flores right now, who is understandably tired and beat up right now.
But if we're going to make a serious play off run, then now isn't the time to let guys figure it out. That's fine when you're a 70 win team, but not when you're playing .600 baseball.
Kottaras (an ungrade) could have been had for nothing. Geovany Soto was just traded for organizational filler (a 24 y.o. SP with a 4.30 ERA in AA). Soto is hardly an upgrade on Flores, but it just goes to show that it wouldn't have cost much for moderate value.
Teams with the best record in baseball shouldn't just settle for what they have, when there are easy fixes out there.
SJM,
Werth gets on base even when he's not hitting much. Lat year in a bad year he got on at a .330 rate; for his career .360.
This is how I would set the lineup when everyone is healthy:
1)Werth
2)Harper
3)Zim
4)ALR
5)Morse
6)Desmond
7)Espinosa
8)Flores
I would play Moore against lefties and insert him below Desmond; moving everyone else up.I would also use Lombo as a super sub playing at least 2 - 3 games a week and batting around 7th.
Will,
Koterras isn't an upgrade over anyone. Soto is an excellent receiver who I would have gladly taken for say Rosenbaum.
If you are just looking for offense I think Leon would do just fine; I don't mind Flores lack of offense if he was playing excellent defense.
Werth batted lead off in Potomac last night. He'd always batted 2nd or 3rd in Syracuse. I wonder if he's beginning to prepare for his return to DC at leadoff....
I also noted that he played CF in most of his rehabs. I am guessing they like Harper in RF & Morse in LF.
JD - thanks for those figures.
Oakland seems to think Kottaras is an upgrade on Derek Norris.
I'm concerned about Flores' health. Johnson doesn't appear comfortable using Leon (or Solano before him), and has been overusing Flores. Flores' offense has plummeted in the past could months, to the point that his offensive value is seriously outweighing his defense (his OPS was .374 in July!). It seems like injuries and overuse has finally gotten to him, but we don't have anyone to replace him with. If Johnson isn't comfortable using Leon regularly, then perhaps they should look outside the organization.
Sorry, that should be "past couple months".
Chien-Ming Wang will be pitching tonight for Harrisburg. I figure he has one more start in AA/AAA. His rehab is up August 11 (according to Amanda).
Jayson Werth led off and played CF in Potomac. He was 2 for 3 with a double, and played nine innings. With the doubleheader, I would hope he takes an off-day and joins the team tomorrow... but who am I to predict? Potomac's game was suspended in the bottom of the 9th, so maybe he'll take an at-bat for his erstwhile teammates.
Will, the thing is, even an experienced catcher is not an "easy fix." You have to know the pitchers, the league, the signs, etc. Seems to me that could take a few days, maybe up to a week. You can slide a Nate Schierholtz in the outfield and as long as he knows where the wall is and the plate is you can expect him to be about the same as he was in San Francisco on day one. Not sure the same applies to catchers.
I've been saying for weeks and weeks we need to get another catcher on board, whereas peric's approach is stay with Hill (who has a nice story, but not much offense). I'm sure Rizzo sees what we see, really, I am.
LOL, the other donkey! Not the 6'6" leadoff one.
adam dunn @adamdunn_32
Golfing today! All I need to know is where is the 1st tee and what is the course record!
Rizzo on ESPN 980. Said he is going for 2012, but not making a "big splash." Depending on the current guys, chemistry. Werth coming back is our "big trade" for the deadline.
mick said...
nats reduxit... below is the repost READ CAREFULLY!!!
This is Unknwn post
mick said...
Unknown said...
23,777 is pathetic! Fans like that don't deserve a play-off team, which is fine because this team isn't going to make it.
we got soem now piling on after 2 losses in a row about attendance, which is so far off..
let me add my friend, Nats are almost at 1.5 million fans with most of their home games left to play and are 13 out of 30
Nats attendance has been EXCELLENT!
Some may disagree with this as well, but August is a prime vacation month so attendance at home games even among contenders will dip a little.
A good friend of mine from Philly (please do not ex communicate me from here ha ha) who has both Eagles and Phils season tickets since the early 80's tells me that in August attn is down and the first week of NFL season is down due to most fans going to the Jersey Shore
August 02, 2012 12:11 PM
If I have not already posted this before, Mark's NI blog is the BEST of any blogging forums period since blogging began. I have been to 100's of blogs, may subject matters, history, politics, porn,basketball, football, etc.. Mark's is the BEST!
even AA, lol
Just a thought...what about Maldonado..Isn't he stored away somewhere as a backup to our backup catchers ?
Mick, no worries. NatsLady pointed out in the earlier thread that someone else had made the attendance comment to which you were responding. We have your back. ;-)
Agreed that this is a great forum. :-)
JD.. like the possible lineup. Looks like it's viable.
I think Werth in CF is because he would make a better OF Captain. Plus with Bryce being banged up, they may need to give him a break.
On the Catchers. It could also be a comfort level the pitchers have with a particular catcher. Some pitchers get choosy (remember Greg Maddux had a personal catcher through out his career - it usually was the B catcher). Plus Davey could just be trying to establish the relationships with JFlo and the pitchers. They all pretty much got used to Wilson last year and during Spring training. THe backups have been rotating (we have had 3 others) so that may be part of it.
Also, thanks to Mark, Chase, and Amanda for answering the questions (definitely needed the primer on the way the rosters get set).
Thank you natsfan1a and nats lady!!
Ramon Hernandez can still be had for a song if the Nats are willing to take on his salary (3.2 mil in '13). He's not hitting much but is a solid game caller and receiver, has playoff experience, who knows the hitters in this league. Bonus: Another Venezuelan.
Davie said he would rotate Werth and Harper in center field because it takes a lot out of you.
JD, interesting. If it takes a lot out of 19-year-old legs, then we have to get a true CF'er. Not being negative about Harper, it's just a different skill-set. Tried watching the Olympics, enjoy the swimming, as I swam competitively up to age 14, but switched to the Reds game because it's time to look seriously at what the opposition will be bringing. Relevance, baby, relevance.
rogieshan,
Hernandez hit very well as late as last year too. I am not sure why you think he could be had for a song. Do you think Rizzo doesn't know this?
No contest, though. The Padres (Ohlendorf) just balked in a run. And it is HOT there. His cap is dripping with sweat, uniform drenched. That is heat exhaustion waiting to happen. Finally, Black takes him out. 6-0 and only the 2nd inning.
Apparently the Mets wouldn't take Hernandez even if the Rox ate some of his salary. He's 36 and hitting .213. Not sure he's an upgrade over Maldanado, though he'd probably clear waivers if the Rox DFA'd him--which I don't believe they have.
Padre's baby pitcher hit a HR in his first at-bat (against Cueto). A Reds fan threw the ball back in, which really nice. First HR given up by Cueto since May 25 (11 games).
NatsLady,
The batting average is for 36 games only and it's deceiving. He is a lifetime .264 .328 .418 hitter.
JD, understood. I have his page up. But they just released Nieves, do they have another rookie (besides Rosario) they are bringing up?
NL.
I don't know. My point was that posters assume they know everything and are not shy about criticizing the GM for moves and non moves when in fact they don't know anything about what the other parties want, player's health etc.
I am pretty sure Rizzo understands our predicament at the catcher position but he refuses to get fleeced; more power to him.
Did Mike Rizzo make the right decision standing pat at the trade deadline? Of course not. How can it be the right decision when all the other teams in contention improved their rosters. Rizzo is a cheap fraidy cat. He has been that way ever since he did the terrible Jason Werth signing, which will haunt the franchise for several more years.
BTW,
Nieves is not a bad option. As far as I'm concerned; punt offense for the catcher's position as long as you can catch and throw well and spell Flores a couple of times a week.
Just a bit of intell on the playoff ticket situation based on a conversation with our rep -- For our Infield Gallery seats, the 9-game playoff strip prices out at about $52 per seat for the playoff games and $28 for the tie breaking game. The World Series tickets, which you have to commit to buy when you order your playoff strips, will be $100 per seat.
If you renew or buy season tickets for 2013 you get the right to two additional strips and the single game online presale. That suggests that the number of tickets that will be still be available for sale directly to people who aren't 2012 or 2013 STHs will be very small indeed.
And let me just say, when the Nats sent out the email about playoff tix, we were all acquitted of any charges that our discussions here are going to jinx the team.
No. I would have traded for a middle infielder (Scutaro) given the injuries to Desmond and Zimmerman's chronic problems. Also, it would have strengthened their bench over DeRosa.
And Scutaro had some problems fielding last night. No not Scutaro stick with what got 'em here. I like the idea of Jed Lowrie (14 home runs for the Astros) or Stephen Drew.
If Ramos (as Rizzo admitted losing a knee like that isn't the best thing for a catcher) is not an option as apparently Flores now looks more and more like a backup not a starter then you have to go out and find another top catching prospect unless Freitas jumps to AA this year at some point and plays in AFL as Derrick Norris did. I don't see that happening and Norris was never the best defensively thus Ramos.
The Nats aren't going to trade prospects for guys who may or may not help. Looks like Hanley is really helping the Dodgers who got swept by the Diamondbacks. If he ends up upsetting team chemistry as he did in Florida?
Remember FLop?
There's something to be said for Rizzo's approach. The prospects are pretty valuable and more than last season. They are going to be far harder to come by thanks to Selig's new rules. And that's why all of these teams are TRADING FOR them!!!?
Far more care and consideration has to go into every single trade using prospects or very recent prospects. The best so far was in fact Capps for Ramos without a doubt.
That said I have to agree with JayB. They could have done a better job selecting bench players. JayB likes to blame Rizzo but Davey had quite a bit of say in that. He is why DeRosa is on the roster.
Having an extra MI starters can't hurt and it might help given how Espy, Desmond, and Zimmerman hurl themselves around on the field. They put a huge amount into their fielding to back up the pitching rotation.
Having an extra starter at catcher might make sense as well and Ramos (due to his knee) could become a backup at least in the near term. He too has yet to last an entire major league season.
Unfortunately, a lot of this will have to be considered in the offseason when there is more time to execute trades.
Oakland seems to think Kottaras is an upgrade on Derek Norris.
Norris was never known for his defensive prowess, Flores might never be the same (looks to be the case) and so that's why Rizzo pulled the trigger to get Ramos.
Solano and Leon need to be given a chance as they are both rookies. But Solano seems to be the better in the major leagues at this juncture. Flores is almost a rookie as he has never managed to complete a major league season unscathed and it does look as if he might not finish this one.
If you just need a fill-in Koyie Hill is a better defensive catcher than Kotteras by a long shot. Far better, almost Pudge level. And that's why they didn't pull the trigger. He is starting in Syracuse over Maldonado for that reason.
They don't need another fill-in. They seem to have two to four qualified candidates as young backups. They may need to go out and find a new starter. And that is going to be tough. The Nats could have used Tommy Joseph.
If you renew or buy season tickets for 2013 you get the right to two additional strips and the single game online presale. That suggests that the number of tickets that will be still be available for sale directly to people who aren't 2012 or 2013 STHs will be very small indeed.
Given the prices and the requirement to buy full strips and pay for them up front, I doubt that will be the case. Including the WS tickets, a full strip for my seat costs over twice what I pay for my entire partial plan for the regular season. I'm in the cheap seats, and I'm not going to lay out that kind of money on the hope that I can make some profit by selling individual game tickets on StubHub with the 15% service charge to the seller there. I doubt that the people in the high roller seats are going to want to lay out even bigger bucks upfront for that miniscule potential payback either.
Using logic my mom gave out way too many years ago, according to Unknown, if every other team makes a deal then we should also. So if every other team jumps off a bridge we should follow suit. Just doesn't make sense. Not every team has the same situations. What we needed and what was available and what the other team wanted are not all known factors. I agree that a middle infielder/catcher might have been a good move but not at giving up valuable prospects. The waiver wire will be interesting and lets see if Rizzo stays with his AAA/AA guys or makes a move that does not cost us much.
Unknown still has not figured out that we are in first place.
Go Nats!
Peric,
I agree. Everyone says that all the other teams in contention improved but Atlanta traded a real good prospect in Arodys Vizcaino for a bottom of the rotation starter and a bench bat. This is actually good news for the Nats in the long and medium term.
SJM,
unknown is just looking for a reaction. None is warranted.
JD, exactly on Rizzo. If you heard him on 980 today, he said for every trade there are 100 non-trades. For every one of those you have to evaluate the stats, the character, chemistry, etc., plus cost, contract and FA/arb status. I enjoy the back-and-forth on here, but let's not pretend we know more than a competent GM and his staff. If Rizzo were incompetent (and there are some of those around), it would be different. The more I hear from him, the more impressed I am--he's not perfect but he's d### good. He's not without ego, but that's ok, too.
Rizzo said (in context of the national sports writers on Stras): I don't report to them. "I report to the Lerners, I report to the DC fans, I report to the players in the clubhouse."
It's a lot easier to be critical (meaningfully) of Davey because we can pretty much see all the pieces he has to play with. But we still don't know all the factors, such as when a reliever's elbow or back is acting up. We also don't know what his chess game is as he looks at the entire season. And Rizzo is looking at seasons to come.
NL,
And it's not like he's afraid to pull the trigger on a big controversial deal (Gio) or sign an expensive FA (Werth, EJax).
Just wanted to say to natscan--on a personal note, I hear you. Will get my postseason tix, and season tix. But I don't know, even with the "aging-in-place" program, how long I can afford to live in the DC area. My only family here is my 80+ in-laws. Sooner or later I expect I'll have to relocate to Southern Illinois and be a Nats-Fan-in-Exile... So I'm going to every game I can while I can.
I doubt that the people in the high roller seats are going to want to lay out even bigger bucks upfront for that miniscule potential payback either.
Really? I think the high rollers will definitely shell out. They are high rollers after all. It's the low rollers like you and me who might not. But for the first post season appearance of a DC baseball team since 1933, I think I'll take the risk, and I think most STHs will as well. This is what we've been waiting for since the Nats arrived in 2005, right?
Now it's also possible that some low rollers will pass on the strips and instead just renew for 2013 and get tickets to a game or two in the presale. I doubt there's a single STH who won't try to come to at least one playoff game per series. So whether it's through the strips or the pre-sale, most tickets will probably be gone by the time they are made available to the general public.
In any event, I don't there's any doubt that you'll be able to sell your tix on StubHub (or to someone here) for at least what you paid for them.
sjm308 said...
Using logic my mom gave out way too many years ago, according to Unknown, if every other team makes a deal then we should also. So if every other team jumps off a bridge we should follow suit.
To which I reply: wait - *your* mom said that? I thought it was *my* mom who said that. :-)
In other news, NatsLady said...
The more I hear from him, the more impressed I am--he's not perfect but he's d### good. He's not without ego, but that's ok, too.
To which I reply, eh, that's okay. We're not perfect either, being human and all. (Not going to go there on egos.) ;-)
Nats don't need another catcher, at least from the collection said to be available: geezers (Hernandez); stone-hands (Kottaras); linguine-bats (too numerous to mention); has-beens (Soto); never-will-bes (anyone hitting .250 or less at AAA) and refugees from an Atkins Diet spa (Maldonado).
What the Nats need is pitchers who know how to hold runners on base, or at least stare them down.
In any event, I don't there's any doubt that you'll be able to sell your tix on StubHub (or to someone here) for at least what you paid for them.
If we sell on StubHub for what we paid, we're already out 15% due to commission.
Just talked to my rep to clarify a few things. There will be a single game STH presale, but only if there is inventory remaining after all the strips are sold - which there may not be. Keep in mind that the MLB and player allotment of seats for these games is going to be way higher than a regular season game. As for buying extra strips, you can buy your allotted strip without renewing your plan for 2013. But to buy extra strips you need to renew for 2013 and pay at least 12.5% up front. This is over and above the full payment you have to make for the strips. That's a lot of money. I wouldn't be surprised if Presidential and Diamond Club people were willing to lay it out to possibly make some money back on resale (and keep in mind that any money you lay out for postseason games that aren't played only comes back to you in your account, not in cash) but I'd be very surprised if the people who sit behind the dugouts, etc, would do it.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/cliff_corcoran/08/02/justin-verlander-jordan-zimmermann-cy-young/index.html
National respect for Jordan Zimmermann. Sure, they are late to the game but so are many of the clueless Nats fanbase.
Braves found a way to DL pitcher Jair Jurjjens, a groin injury.
There will be a single game STH presale, but only if there is inventory remaining after all the strips are sold - which there may not be.
....
I'd be very surprised if the people who sit behind the dugouts, etc, would do it.
These two statements are kind of inconsistent, but I guess we'll just see what happens. Kind of like our disagreement over whether Drew Storen would ever pitch in an inning other than the 9th....
As for StubHub, sure they take a commission (15% from buyer and 10% from seller). MLB has essentially legalized scalping, as long as it gets a 25% cut. But tickets went for three and four times face value on StubHub for the Yankees series. You don't think that playoff seats will be as much in demand?
Section 222 said...
There will be a single game STH presale, but only if there is inventory remaining after all the strips are sold - which there may not be.
....
I'd be very surprised if the people who sit behind the dugouts, etc, would do it.
These two statements are kind of inconsistent, but I guess we'll just see what happens.
Your reading comprehension seems kind of inconsistent. I never said dugout seat people wouldn't buy and resell single playoff game seats. I said they're not going to buy an entire 2013 season plan plus an entire 2012 postseason strip just so they can make money scalping the playoff tix one by one. The initial cash layout is way too high and the ROI is way too low. If they have that much money sitting around to invest, there are tons of better alternatives available to them.
I think some of you are assuming that making the playoffs this year is Mike Rizzo's main priority. I am not actually a mind reader, but have been listening to a lot of his interviews recently. Sounds to me like if it happens with this team that would be really cool but he is not going to make moves solely toward that short term end. He is sticking with his long term plan where we start contending in 2013, and are in the mix every year going forward. If his main priority was the playoffs, he wouldn't be so adamant about Strassie and he would have added rental players. I think the post season is a priority of some of the fans - I think Rizzo is sticking to developmental things happening this year.He and the manager seem to like what they have and the direction things are going in.I will be interested to see how this young team continues to react, adjust and overcome. So far they have blown my mind.
Did anyone see that Cliff Lee has been placed on waivers? Was that a joke? Good thing Mark just explained that process.
baseballswami said...
I think some of you are assuming that making the playoffs this year is Mike Rizzo's main priority.
He has consistently been saying since forever that his goal is to be playing meaningful games in September, both this season and for many seasons to come. It follows from that that if he manages to meet that goal every year, there will be seasons where they exceed it and move into the crapshoot that is the playoffs. Possibly many of them. But if he shoots his wad this year or any other year to try to guarantee a playoff run, a logical byproduct of that would be the likelihood of missing his goal in seasons to come, possibly many of them. See the Boston Red Sox for an example of how that "shoot your wad now" scenario plays out. See the 1990-2011 Braves for an example of how Rizzo's preferred scenario would play out.
swami, I said that yesterday (or the day before) and got blasted. Oh, well.
Today, for the first time, Rizzo said, "Meaningful games in September. And beyond. Maybe he's had just a sip of Kool-Aid?
No doubt that Rizzo has his eye on the long run but, as Keynes said, "in the long run, we are all dead." If you emphasize that too much, you sound like you are bracing yourselves for an easy landing in the event they blow up over the next 60 days.
Neither Rizzo nor, especially, Johnson, wants to squander what the team has accomplished in the first four months of the season. You can guarantee that, within the parameters previously established (Strasburg), Johnson will push the pedal to the floor until the end of the season.
Given that, if Rizzo had been confident there was a deal that would clinch the division (on paper) he would have struck the deal, even had it meant sacrificing a minor leaguer or two. By not dealing he signaled his confidence that this team, with its current structure, would contend at least until the final day. "Long term" excellence is not guaranteed. But Rizzo and Johnson anticipate having it all.
Should have got a catcher. Rizzo is just being cheap. If he doesn't want to mess with chemistry why is ankiel gone. Everyone talking about October. I luv the nats but I don't think it will happen.
Everybody gets put on waivers? I don't think so . And I do know that most of those who are put on waivers are not actually traded. I seem to recall that it's a good way to know who might be interested in making a trade in the offseason --they are the teams that nibble during the waiver process. It still seemed like a big name to me. By the way - anyone watching "The Franchise"? I loved it last year with the Giants - likeable people, nice stories. This year is the Marlins - you get to watch the train wrecks behind the scenes, but a lot of those characters are not exactly noble. Every word out of Guillen's mouth has four letters and begins with an F. They showed his "situation" with Harper and last night was the Hanley trade. The new episode contained content from just a few days ago. Lomo is sort of the person everyone used to think Bryce was. They actually showed Stanton knocked out and on the OR table. Creepy. Hard to look away, though. We soooo need to beat them.
I think the Phillies were disappointed Lee didn't move by the deadline. (Me too.) He's a good candidate for a waiver trade; being still owed mega-millions over several years, none of the rebuilding/low budget/small market teams will be tempted to claim him so, as soon as some of the buyers at the July 31 deadline discover their deals didn't work out as planned, they'll be barking at Amaro's door.
NatsLady said...
Today, for the first time, Rizzo said, "Meaningful games in September. And beyond. Maybe he's had just a sip of Kool-Aid?
They have regular season games this year on Oct 1,2 & 3 vs the Phillies. Those had better mean something, even if it's nothing more than a day of rest for regulars after they clinch the division.
Your reading comprehension seems kind of inconsistent. I never said dugout seat people wouldn't buy and resell single playoff game seats. I said they're not going to buy an entire 2013 season plan plus an entire 2012 postseason strip just so they can make money scalping the playoff tix one by one. The initial cash layout is way too high and the ROI is way too low. If they have that much money sitting around to invest, there are tons of better alternatives available to them.
I know you like to argue with me, but I have no idea what this last comment is about. My original point was only a very small amount of playoff tickets will be made available to the general public because STHs will buy them up through the additional strips that they can get by renewing or the single game presale. You took issue with that, arguing that the cost is prohibitive and the ROI too small. I think you're wrong and continue to believe that few if any seats will remain available after the STHs get their shot at them. The "dugout seat people" you refer to are going to renew for next year anyway, why not do it now and get the right to extra playoff seats? Sounds like your ticket rep also thinks that's probably what will happen.
I actually have no idea whether seats will be bought up by high rollers solely for resale on StubHub, although I'm sure some of that will take place. But remember, some STHs have groups. If 8 people share two seats, then the extra strips will allow more of the group to go to the games. Other STHs have "friends" coming out of the wordwork hoping for tickets. The extra tickets will the STHs to accomodate some of them.
Whatever they do with the tickets, my prediction is that STHs will buy most of the playoff tickets. When that happens, you'll have a second helping of crow to eat, but after your Storen/Clipp portion, it should go down easy. :-)
Actually, if Lee is on waivers, I think the Nats should put in a claim for him. Either they get him or they force the Phillies to pull him back so they can't sell him to somebody we care about (Atlanta, Dodgers, Mets (for next season).)
Jordan is the National League pitcher of the month for July! YES! - You know I am celebrating for that one!!! It's about time some of the Nats are starting to be considered for these things!
Swami,
Everyone does get put on waivers because you can pull them off at will. This way you can see who puts in a claim and you can try to make a deal.
If you put in a claim you better be sure you are willing to take on the player's salary because the team who put the player on waivers does not have to pull him back.
The Giants picked up Aaron Rowand a couple of years ago to block a claim by one of their opponents and ended up with a huge contract they didn't want but it did turn out OK for them because they won the world series that year.
Everybody gets put on waivers? I don't think so . And I do know that most of those who are put on waivers are not actually traded.
A great many more than you think ... GM's get to pull them back one time. Its a way of gauging interest in players. If they clear waivers then a trade can be worked out post trade deadline. I'm certain they placed just about everyone over 30 including Werth on the wire last season at this time.
For example, given his salary, Alfonso Soriano just might clear waivers. Then he is free to be traded to a team like the Dodgers or the Giants and perhaps even the Nats depending on their offense. He has pretty decent offensive numbers.
The problem is Soriano is also due 18 million next season at age 37. Compare to Werth who will be receiving 21 million at age 38.
And yes some of the Nats top young starters? The Nats might pass them through in order to gauge interest and analyze what the other team has that they might need. That is sometimes how this trading phase gets one started.
Typically these things are kept confidential and hush-hush. GM's don't want to distract the players with their maneuvering. Its why Rizzo keeps things so close to the vest and is not a fan of MLBTradeRumors.
No one will claim Lee. He is still owed $90 mil or so and everyone in the industry knows that even if he's still good (he is) he's not worth that kind of money. The Phills would have to eat some of his salary to move him.
Apparently Werth is going to play tonight - no one being sent down - someone going to the dl? Twitter is blowing up about it.
Didn't someone say Henry has a groin injury?
The plan was to bring him up tomorrow but there is not much point in delaying this move. Clearly the lineup needs a shot in the arm.
OK imaginary friends - you are letting me down. Where is the glee over Jordan's honor right now? By the way, our third pitcher this season to get that honor. That is just amazing! And yes, JD - I think that has been mentioned - perhaps that will be the smart play here?
Jordan Zimmermann has been money in the bank for about 2 month now. Good for you Jordan.
If we do a 15 day DL with Henry we can pretty much protect him until the end of the year. The problem is that I don't see where he is gonna be better next year.
WOOOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Jordan is the pitcher of the month!!!!
Well deserved Jordan!!!
With a 15 day dl and a rehab assignment that should bring us to September. I don't remember a season with more creative use of the dl. Next - Wang with hangnail, blister, mosquito bite?
MicheleS - Now it seems official!
Davey knew Jordan Zimmermann would be their top pitcher going into the 2nd half and that's why he was positioned at the top of the rotation at the start of the 2nd half. I'm pretty sure I said the same. He's pretty much established himself as the rock of the rotation starting last season even with his Tommy John's related sputtering.
But like Stras after him he is still in recovery mode to an extent and he has yet to pitch more than 160 innings in a season. He may get to 185 or 190 it would be pushing it to go further than that. Have to admit I'm more worried about Zim pushing himself to pitch further as his teammate Tom Gorzelanny did pitching multiple games in a row with over 120 pitches in 2007. And where is he now Zim and Stras? Look down your locker stalls at a former Pirates great, ace and CY Young award candidate.
Swami.. have MLB Network on right now, and that is the big mystery.. Who gets moved now that Jayson has been activated.
JD.. Rizzo said that Henry had been dealing with a back issue yesterday on 106.7. Do hears hoping!!!!
Peric,
That;s why the extra day off and that's why he is taken out after 6 innings having thrown only 95 pitches. You gotta protect these young pitchers if you don't want a bunch of Mark Priors.
peric - and that, not the shoulder, is why Davey has been pulling him after six every start. The 25% per year increase guideline would put him at 200, some even say 30%. He is a pretty strong kid and does not seem to be tiring in games - getting stronger sometimes. I have heard that it's more the lower half of a pitcher's body that needs to stay strong through out the season. How fortunate are we, though , that we have had three pitchers get this honor in one season? Ok - EJax and Det - 2 months left - one each.
Nats Jack -- I understand the procedure. I think there are only a few teams (with worse records than the Nats) who might try to claim Lee. So they should put in a claim and (a) make the Phillies pull him back so nobody else (e.g., the Braves or the Dodgers) gets him or (b) snap him up at a fire sale price.
Hopefully my math is correct. To get to 95 games (win the division, pretty much), Nats need to win 33 of the next 58 games, or .567 rate. That's doable, maybe even allows for a sweep or two, but doesn't allow for long losing streaks--which the Nats haven't had.
IOW, we can lose 25 games, even if Atlanta keeps at their current pace (which, with their hot streak is exactly .567).
NatsLady - nice math.So far there have not been prolonged streaks either way. Slow and steady, guys. One day at a time. Their July was ridiculous and last week was crazy. I feel like there has been a little let down now. Hope they pull out of it pretty quickly. Det? Think Zen.
Congrats to Jordan.
swami, yes, I've been watching The Franchise. Also watched last year, though I picked that one up later in the season (hadn't realized the channel was in my cable package). I actually find it harder to dislike individual players after seeing it. I kinda felt sorry for Hanley after the trade. Some general impressions: yeah, Ozzie is big on dropping F-bombs. His wife seems like a nice lady and quite attractive. Loria and his son-in-law seem like a couple of, er, jerks. I loved the story of Justin Ruggiano getting called up after paying his dues, and seeing him interact with his wife and kids. I also felt bad for Heath Bell in last night's episode where they touched on his dad's illness.
natsfan1a - pretty much agree with your impressions. I wasn't going to watch it this year because of our rivalry with the Marlins, but with the stuff going on with them, I just couldn't resist. Their new, young pitcher seems like a good kid, too. I don't think we will face him, though. Seems like lots of drama at NatsPark right now - DJ delayed his lineups and pre-game talk, apparently waiting to see Jayson hit before they make the move official.
NatsJack - Lee?
Agreed re. their new pitcher, swami. Seems like he does his homework, too.
For any of you who have not watched "The Franchise" you see the behind the scenes stuff going on in the office,on the phones, talking to the players, etc. It's very "Moneyball" - ish. You actually watch a player get sent to triple A and almost bawl. Mujica cried about leaving his baby when he got traded. Last night's episode had all the trade stuff in it - pretty interesting to watch how it all works.
from Amanda
Amanda Comak@acomak
Good to see #nats catcher Wilson Ramos at Nationals Park today. In good spirits now three weeks removed from ACL surgery.
Amanda Comak@acomak
Ramos is off his crutches, walking with a brace on his right knee but said his physical therapy is going well.
Swami.. I think he was referring to Gorzo.
Oh- thanks, Michele. Couldn't pick up the train of thought. Apparently Davey will be speaking with the media at 5:30. Stay tuned.
The Franchise is great. I'm just sick of Ozzie's schtick. They did the White Sox two years ago (Giants last year), so I feel like I've seen it all by now. But the human moments are well done.
Apparently it's official now - Werth in , Henry to the dl. whew. Net gain there. Also takes care of the 8 man bullpen overage and fixes the bench shortage.Shouldn't hurt the team chemistry. Section 222-- agreed - never watched the white sox series, but he is certainly very narcissistic. (is that even close to the correct spelling?)
NatsJack - only one of our posters exaggerates?
Yup! It's Henry!
Washington Nationals @Nationals
OFFICIAL: #Nats activate and reinstate OF Jayson Werth from the 60-day DL and place RHP Henry Rodriguez on the 15-day DL
One of our posters tends to exaggerate sometimes. Actually, most of the time.
And one of our posters knows very little about baseball because he barely gets out of his house. He's at that age. He doesn't follow Pirate blogs and I do for starters. Gorzelanny at age 24 was the gem of that system. Tracy drove both Gorzelanny and Zach Duke not pulling them well beyond 120 pitches in some cases in start after start.
I really someone would stop acting like an expert on baseball when all he really understands is at the bottom of his pilsner glass.
MicheleS said...
from Amanda
Amanda Comak@acomak
Good to see #nats catcher Wilson Ramos at Nationals Park today. In good spirits now three weeks removed from ACL surgery.
Amanda Comak@acomak
Ramos is off his crutches, walking with a brace on his right knee but said his physical therapy is going well.
______________________________
Great news! My smile is huge or is that the news of Henry that I'm smiling about?
Peric was saying it was Moore and I kept saying they would find a way to put Henry away without the DFA.
And Ladson's in the house as well. Look for another outrageous prediction for tonight's game. glad he is back, always liked his quirky predictions.
Gonat. after Rizzo said on the radio that Henry's back was bothering him - which was a new ailment for him - it had to be him. Seriously, Yesterday, Rizzo probably went up to and asked him which body part he prefered to be hit in. Figurring, having his finger slammed in a door was bad enough, Henry just chose his back. I am surprised he didn't say oblique.
Henry on the 15-day instead of the 60-day ... they are going to keep working with him in hopes he can help them again (as he did earlier in the year) later on.
Hoping that a visit from Ramos, Werth back and Zim ahd ALR ( hopefully) in the line up will right the ship. Also - no one sent down today. I am guessing that TyMo was looking over his shoulder all day.
Actually, I find that most of our family try to be factual. It's the few that generalize their opinions as factual that make me laugh.
And some spend most of their day in a drunken stupor in the Florida sun and them come onto this blog to proselytize.
Nope.. better to put Henry on the DL..
Mark Zuckerman@MarkZuckerman
Davey said was ready to option Tyler Moore to AAA to let him play every day, will now try to keep him fresh here.
Hey - we are good until call-ups with Henry now - he is safely stashed on the dl or in the minors until then. If he can get his head together he could be awesome for us in September.
Ok - now the Wang situation, then Desi. Progress.
Swami.. i bet based on Mark's tweet that Tyler was hiding all day from Davey. But thankfully we have the DL/Witness protection program for Henry. I really hope he gets it worked out. Just love watching him scare the beejeezzus out of the opposing hitters.
I must say I don't get the move of putting Lombo way down in the line up and putting Espi leading off. Lombo sees a lot more pitches than Danny.
Swami.. it's b/c Colbert (lefty) is pitching.
NatsJack.. you were right.. Rizzo started laying the ground work yesterday.
Section 222 said...
I know you like to argue with me, but I have no idea what this last comment is about.
You took two totally unrelated sentences of mine, stuck them next to each other to form a conclusion, and then told me I was wrong. That's what it was about.
The "dugout seat people" you refer to are going to renew for next year anyway, why not do it now and get the right to extra playoff seats? Sounds like your ticket rep also thinks that's probably what will happen.
Keep in mind that of the 13 tickets you have to buy as part of the package, if the Nats get really lucky and run the table in the postseason as many as 8 of them could end up not being played. Funds for those are refunded, of course, but they go to the STH account and have to be spent there by the end of the 2013 season. So if you have group members or friends that want in for the whole strip, they will need to hand you all the money up front knowing that the only way they're getting any of it back if games aren't played will be by going to games next year. If you just want to roll the dice and try to profit on StubHub by buying extra strips, if the minimum number of games end up being played your profits will be low and your excess investment can't be cashed out. You'd be better off taking the same amount to Vegas and laying it on the Nats.
Davey said was ready to option Tyler Moore to AAA to let him play every day, will now try to keep him fresh here.
Play DeRosa a lot less. Moore a lot more. That's easy enough.
aaah - I see - on the pitching and on Rizzo. He operates in the right city if you know what I mean. Interesting that Werth will be back in the field against the Phils with Cole pitching - full circle from the night of the injury. But the relative positions of the 2 teams is really different now.
Excuse me while I laugh some more.
dissipate the vapors it may hide the closet drinking.
Peric - completely agree on the playing time statement. DeRosa - toast. Moore - future.
Davey is going to be on PTI next
A program that should be called PITA, but I digress. :-)
MicheleS said...
Davey is going to be on PTI next
August 02, 2012 5:39 PM
NatsJack.. Did a little research...
Baseball Reference
Scroll about halfway down. Interesting list.
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