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US Presswire photo Stephen Strasburg makes his final home start of the season tonight. |
But when Stephen Strasburg emerges from the first base dugout at 7:05 p.m. tonight, he'll do so with the knowledge he won't be allowed to make that stroll anymore in 2012.
Having been informed by team management last week he will be shut down following next Wednesday's start in New York, Strasburg finally has a clear view of the finish line on what will be remembered both as an equally remarkable and frustrating season for the young right-hander.
Remarkable because he returned from Tommy John surgery to post 15 wins (at least), a sub-3.00 ERA and more strikeouts than any pitcher in baseball. Frustrating because -- even though he's healthy and feels like he can continue to pitch -- the Nationals are shutting the 24-year-old down at the tail end of a pennant race for purely precautionary reasons.
So it could be an emotional night at Nationals Park when Strasburg faces the Marlins, the home crowd getting one final opportunity to watch their young ace in person this season.
Just don't expect the man on the mound to show any more emotion than he usually does.
"He's all-in," manager Davey Johnson said. "Every time he goes out, he's committed to be the best he can be. He probably puts that standard higher than I like it. So I don't see him ramping down to the last one of two, going at it any harder or any softer."
Indeed, Strasburg's motivation tonight likely won't have anything to do with his impending shutdown but with trying to move the Nationals one step closer to their first NL East title, not to mention making amends for his last start against the Marlins.
Only 10 days ago in Miami, Strasburg suffered perhaps the worst beating of his professional career, getting tagged for seven runs (five earned) and nine hits in five innings. The Nationals lost that game 9-0, their fifth consecutive loss, and the following day Johnson closed the doors of his clubhouse to hold a team meeting.
Since then, the Nationals are 8-1, beating their opponents by a collective score of 70-27.
Strasburg called that start "a big learning experience for me." Will he take what he learned and apply it to tonight's game?
The bigger challenge might be finding a way to rediscover success against a Marlins team lineup that has already faced him four times this season and eight times in his career. No other team has gone up against him as many times.
Whatever the result, when Strasburg retreats to the dugout at the end of his outing, surely he'll receive a standing ovation from an appreciative crowd that won't get a chance to say thanks again this year.
After a summer spent worrying about and debating the shutdown of a healthy pitcher, the end has finally arrived.
68 comments:
The Nats will pull together behind SS's last start in DC this year. They would do that, anyway, but this is a special game for Nats' nation.
his story this year is one of many special stories. I know he will be depressed if he's forced to watch a championship run from the sidelines but I could not be happier with the way they have handled it.
here's to two more great starts and a long, healthy and successful career as a Nat.
it feels like its his last start period, i know its not, but its the right decision, lets go nats!
I'll be there tonight, and I hope the stadium is filled and cheering our hearts out (although I know there is competition in a certain city 40 miles north).
Go NATS!! Go Stras!!!!!!!
Feels like a summer romance, but now school is starting...
Following up on Mark's tweet, I wondered if LaRoche will ever be able to reach potential HoF WAR mark of 60 by the end of his career. To my surprise, he has only accumulated 12 (fangraphs) and 9 (BBref). Even more shocking was negative defensive WAR given to him. I thought he was one of the best defensive 1B in the league. Also if you look at his 2005-2010 numbers, they are all very consistent. Not saying HoF worthy, but if he continues his 20-25 HR, and 90-100 RBI pace for few more years, never know what could happen. Dunn on the other hand, will have to continue to hit HRs until he is 40 to get into HoF. Bad defense, low career average, and all look bad on his resume.
since I am on LaRoche, I think we should try to keep this guy around for couple more season for his defense.
I will be there tomorrow. I was hoping they would push SS back a game so I can watch his final home game this season, but oh well.
“You’re up 7-2 … you don’t swing 3-0 in that situation.” — Cubs catcher Steve Clevenger, who clearly thinks a five-run lead in the fifth means you stop playing.
Not sure if Clevenger ever graduated from St. Joes in Baltimore, but the guy clearly isn't too bright.
5 run lead in the 5th inning means you don't swing at a 3-0 pitch???
Brilliant.
Faraz Shaikh said...
Following up on Mark's tweet, I wondered if LaRoche will ever be able to reach potential HoF WAR mark of 60 by the end of his career. To my surprise, he has only accumulated 12 (fangraphs) and 9 (BBref). Even more shocking was negative defensive WAR given to him. I thought he was one of the best defensive 1B in the league.
LaRoche has the best hands in the Majors receiving throws. He is also good handling balls hit right at him. What he is poor at is balls hit to his backhand and also reaction plays on hard shots.
Also you have to remember that in the first two or three years, LaRoche was a poor fielder so that affects his career WAR. He worked very hard to learn his position.
wikipedia thinks he graduated. FWIW
Clevenger, who was raised in Glen Burnie, Maryland, graduated from Mount Saint Joseph High School in 2004. He was the starting shortstop on the school's varsity baseball team which won the Maryland Interscholastic Athletic Association (MIAA) A Conference championship in his senior year.
He hit .347 as a first-team All-Southland Conference shortstop in his only year at Southeastern Louisiana University in 2005. After transferring to Chipola College, he led the Indians with a .395 batting average and 77 hits.
Nats seemed to have played down Stras' last start at the Park. No advertising at all or branding it as, for example, Thank You Stephen Night. We'll be there and I hope the place is full! Stras deserves it.
sm13--probably the right thing to do. It isn't Stras' last start at Nats Park (G-d willing). It's not like Chipper's retirement. The fans know, just like when Storen didn't get traded. The fans know and they'll let Stephen know.
A quote from the Tribune story (h/t Michele):
"I was in the middle trying to break everything up," Clevenger said.
In addition to all his other characteristics, he seems to be somewhat lacking in the honesty department. And he forgot there's video of his peculiar brand of peacekeeping all over the Internet.
sm13 said...
Nats seemed to have played down Stras' last start at the Park. No advertising at all or branding it as, for example, Thank You Stephen Night. We'll be there and I hope the place is full! Stras deserves it.
September 07, 2012 12:05 PM
They will send out that owners email to the fanbase Wednesday evening but their marketing department doesn't take advantage of putting out the word about the most exciting pitcher in the National League.
I guess to each their own.
Section 222 said...
A quote from the Tribune story (h/t Michele):
"I was in the middle trying to break everything up," Clevenger said.
In addition to all his other characteristics, he seems to be somewhat lacking in the honesty department. And he forgot there's video of his peculiar brand of peacekeeping all over the Internet.
Dude is a total toolbag. When his agent told me last weekend he was going to be in DC with Steve Clevenger this week, I honestly didn't even know who the guy was except his name sounded familiar.
Now I have no respect for him or his team. Throwing at Harper, for what? Another indoctrination for playing hard?
Question for the group. LaRoche has a "say" in his future here and clearly will bypass his 1 year option to try to get a long-term deal.
On November 6th, ALR will be 33 years old. He's in his prime right now and exceeding even his career averages. Do you give him the gigantic payday he will now want and a 3 to 4 year deal or do you give him 2 years at $12 to $14 million as you have many options in the future including moving Ryan Zimmerman to 1st base at some point in his career since you have Rendon in the wings.
They will send out that owners email to the fanbase Wednesday evening but their marketing department doesn't take advantage of putting out the word about the most exciting pitcher in the National League.
They have never hyped or "marketed" any of Strasburg's individual starts - including his first one. All of that hype was generated organically, mainly by the media. Have you forgotten the game against the Reds that was nearly sold out just because the media predicted Strasburg would start? So why would you want them to all-of-a-sudden start marketing tonight's game as his last home start? Do you think fans don't already know about that, and if it's important to them they can come out and see it?
The larger point is that sports teams NEVER market a game as "come out and see player X" because they're setting themselves up for trouble if they do. If fans come out specifically to see player X and then player X is a late scratch, then they would never ever be able to use that marketing approach again. Marketing for a particular game is always "come out and see the TEAM", not "come out and see player X".
I know its tough for Stras to end early and its tough for us fans, but its better for all of us in the long run. Hang in there, Stephen. Good things come to those who wait.
Loved Boz's article in today's WaPo regarding Stras's shutdown and Davey Johnson's attitude about not shutting down your offense to take it easy on an opponent. I have the same attitude about winning games. I believe one should always try to do their best, no matter what the score. I feel this way no matter which end of the game I'm on. If I'm getting the sh... er, dickens kicked out of me, I don't want the other team to take it easy. I'd consider that an insult. How can I determine where I stand if the opponent is takeing it easy on me? So I love Davey's stance on this.
Or do you give him 2 years at $12 to $14 million as you have many options
I guess the question is more "is your final offer to him 2 years at $12 to $14 million."
As much as it pains me to say this given his historic week (and that's literally historic since only 5 other players, all HoFers, have homered in all four games of a series and had one multi-homer game), I don't think you can commit to LaRoche for more than 2 years.
He's had a fantastic year, and I'd throw alot of money his way for the next year, or maybe two, and hope he wants to stick with this team for the next year or two. But with his age and the other options we have at 1B, I'd say no to a three year deal.
I understand what Clevenger is saying. He doesn't move a muscle to get the ball but when he sees Harper didn't get hit, he gets up and walks in front of Harper and pushes him back until Werth and RZ got there.
To me, that showed it absolutely WAS a deliberate throw to hit Harper, but Clevenger knew his LIFE would be in danger if Harper charged the mound and got injured or suspended.
85 wins, 25 games remaining, much winning still to do:
Marlins 3
Mets 3
Braves 3
Dodgers 3
Brewers 4
Phillies 3
Cardinals 3
Phillies 3
MASN, partially owned by the Nats, markets individual players all the time in its ads for upcoming series.
And of course they could use that marketing approach again if there's a late scratch. Are fans going to rebel and not come to the park because someone got injured and didn't play and there had been an ad featuring that player?
I just ran across this classic Bart Giamatti article on baseball
http://www.yalealumnimagazine.com/issues/2012_09/sports_giamatti.html
Here are the comments from Hardball Talk on Jackson and LaRoche (ranked as #4 and #15 on their list of 111 top free agents).
4. Edwin Jackson (RHP Nationals – Age 29): Jackson rolled the dice last winter, taking a one-year, $11 million contract from the Nationals instead of one of the lesser two- or three-year offers on the table. It’s likely to pay off in a big way. While this year’s 9-9 record and 3.63 ERA aren’t spectacular, he has a career-best 1.17 WHIP and a 147/50 K/BB ratio in 163 2/3 innings for Washington. A smarter pitcher now than he was in his younger days, he’d be worth the investment if he could be had for $50 million over four years. He might get a five-year, $70 million contract from someone.
15. Adam LaRoche (1B Nationals – Age 32)*: When the Nationals gave Michael Morse his contract extension in January, they were essentially penciling him as their 2013 first baseman, with Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth in the outfield corners. LaRoche, though, has been the team’s best hitter this year, and with Harper proving to be useable in center, the Nationals might want to keep their current arrangement going for another year. LaRoche will have his own say; his can void the $10 million option on his contract and go shopping for a multiyear deal if he’d like.
I agree with the comments here about LaR and not signing him for more than two years. We do have a lot of options at first base. I just hope one of them can learn to pick it as well as LaR.
Ghost, holy crap. 15-10 gets us to 100 wins? Wow.
I'd be interested in your analysis of whether and how the Nats will use the off days that bookend the Atlanta series to readjust their rotation for the stretch run. Those are their last off days until Oct. 4.
NatsJack/222, I think you both hit it. Unfortunatley, I think some team will be "reactive" looking at ALR's MVP stats and offer him a 3 or 4 year deal. It always happens in baseball. Prime examples are Prince Fielder, Alfonso Soriano and Adam Dunn. In each case, the player jumped for the money instead of staying for a fair deal.
It would hurt to see ALR leave but I think another 2 years with a vesting option for a 3rd year would be fair but probably not fair enough for him. The silver lining could be spending that money on a new CF and move Morse to 1st.
NL, that was just the beginning of the incident. Those stray fists a few minutes later kind of undermine the I was just "trying to break things up" statement, don't you think?
Strasburg called that start "a big learning experience for me."
So, nu?, what do we think he learned from his last start? Anyone?
Section 222 said...
Ghost, holy crap. 15-10 gets us to 100 wins? Wow.
I'd be interested in your analysis of whether and how the Nats will use the off days that bookend the Atlanta series to readjust their rotation for the stretch run. Those are their last off days until Oct. 4.
Tom Verducci says the Nats will rest players once they clinch the Division and will just miss 100 wins.
After reading JZim's comments about how he likes no extra rest and the clear benefits to Ross Detwiler, its just wondering which game they insert Lannan in for the Atlanta series and do they hit the Braves with 2 or 3 lefties for that series.
Facing Dickey in the upcoming Mets series worries me more than anything on its effect on batters in the games following facing him. Might be a good time to sit some regulars who Davey thinks will be adversely affected.
Wendell-
Giamatti was amazing. His death was a real loss for baseball.
In more current news, if the Nats beat the Fish tonight, Miami is officially out of the running for winning the NL East. Colorado fell off Washington's map the other day, with the Cubs and Astros. The Nats' magic number for lesser teams is closer and closer to zero.
+1/2St
I wouldn't count on a big attendance figure tonight. My guess would be somewhere in the 25K range based on advanced tickets sold.
I am a little late to the party on last night's game, but I thought the Cubs were absolutely pathetic. It gives me a chance to tell one of my favorite coaching stories about "running up the score" on someone. It comes from Lou Holtz.
In 1970, Holtz' second year as the head coach at William and Mary, the Tribe played West Virgina, coached at the time by the legendary Bobby Bowden. Holtz and Bowden had coached together as assistants and Holtz considered Bowden a good friend. WVU won the game 43-7, scoring late several times. When shaking hands with Bowden after game, Holz was incensed, saying to Bowden "Bobby I thought we were friends. How can you run up the score on me like that?". Bowden replied, "Lou, it's your job the keep the score down, not mine."
Ghost.. the schedule is no cake walk. Even if the team records don't show it (I am looking at your Phillies) these teams will not roll over and die for us (unlike the Cubs.. Geesh My Dad is rolling over in his grave over that performance).
I love what ALR has done this year and hope the Nats can re-sign him on mutually acceptable terms.
I'm not so sure he'll get a big, 3-4 yr contract elsewhere. Top FAs are still getting (vastly) overpaid, but that's less true of the mid-market, which is more where ALR falls. While he does look like the MVP (among position players) for the Nats this year, he's hardly putting up MVP #s compared to the league as a whole--he falls at #6 in WAR among all MLB 1B, and #3 in the NL.
Section 222 said...
MASN, partially owned by the Nats, markets individual players all the time in its ads for upcoming series.
Even though the Nats are minority owners of MASN, I doubt they exert much influence on the way MASN markets its telecasts. One giveaway there: their O's and Nats ads are identical, save for the names.
And of course they could use that marketing approach again if there's a late scratch. Are fans going to rebel and not come to the park because someone got injured and didn't play and there had been an ad featuring that player?
Oh, you're right of course. Fans would never see an ulterior motive in any ad or endorsement or email coming from the mouth of ownership. With most things, it's once bitten, twice shy. But fans? They can be fooled again and again and again and again. Right?
I think if your not willing to offer ALR 3 years in the $35M-$40M range, we will loss him. Bottom line, he'll get that off this year. Easy. The Pittsburg or Boston should be in that range.
222, it's hard for me to see what Clevenger did later. I just saw him with his back to the camera standing around mostly, I'll take your word for it he got his fists involved later on.
I don't think Davey will let his foot off the pedal for the next 25 games. He is like a different guy than he was earlier in the season when he was "teaching" and "testing." He's pretty much seen what he needs to see (except Garcia). I think we learned from the Phillies last year that you can only rest players so much before the edge wears off.
Ghost, Verducci is probably right about resting players. I sure hope that's in the cards. But the way our bench players play, I wouldn't rely on that rationale to bet against us going 15-10 for the rest of the season.
It's unfortunate our only off days come so soon, but hopefully they give Davey the opportunity to alternate LH and RH starters, once he replaces Stras with Lannan. Do you think the Oct. 4 and 5 off days are enough time to get Gio or Zim the rest they need before Game #1 of the NLDS? Seems like you want to make sure that your No. 1 in the playoffs doesn't pitch after Oct. 1.
Feel, your comment is so loaded with sarcasm that I can't quite discern your actual point. But no, I don't think fans would hold a marketing campaign that features a player against the team if a player later gets injured and has to miss a game. Naive I guess.
I think we might wind up bidding another Adam adieu.
LaRoche has been marvelous this year -- better than we could have hoped -- but within two years, tops, the Nats will have to make room for Rendon and Goodwin.
I'd be happy to have Adam back for two years, but this is likely his last chance for a multi-year payday. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a three-year deal somewhere else.
Here's how the rotation shapes up if no changes are made to what exists as of now:
Marlins 3 Strasburg, Jackson, Detwiler
Mets 3 Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Strasburg
OFF DAY
Braves 3 Jackson, Detwiler, Gonzalez
OFF DAY
Dodgers 3 Zimmermann, Lannan, Jackson
Brewers 4 Detwiler, Gonzalez, Zimmerman
Phillies 3 Lannan, Jackson, Detwiler
Cardinals 3 Gonzalez, Zimmerman, Lannan
Phillies 3 Jackson, Detwiler, Gonzalez
It seems to me we don't need a lot of tinkering, other than giving someone not named above the final start on the, presumably meaningless, final game of the regular season.
NCNatsie
I know you said "without tinkering," but Mark reported that at least one bit of tinkering is almost certain - Lannan vs ATL.
So people are happy to have Werth getting $100 million over the next 5 years, but don't think we should sign LaRoche for 3-4 years for less than half of that. Hilarious!!! You people really know baseball!!!
Sorry, I screwed that up, didn't schedule anyone for the fourth Brewer game. REealculating.
Fear and Ignorance said...
So people are happy to have Werth getting $100 million over the next 5 years, but don't think we should sign LaRoche for 3-4 years for less than half of that. Hilarious!!! You people really know baseball!!!
Context, anyone? The Nats' situation, the circumstances, under which that contact was signed are light years different from what they are now.
Or, haven't you noticed?
Ok, let's try this again:
Marlins 3 Strasburg, Jackson, Detwiler
Mets 3 Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Strasburg
OFF DAY
Braves 3 Jackson, Detwiler, Gonzalez
OFF DAY
Dodgers 3 Zimmermann, Lannan, Jackson
Brewers 4 Detwiler, Gonzalez, Zimmerman, Lannan
Phillies 3 Jackson, Detwiler, Gonsalez
Cardinals 3 Zimmerman, Lannan, Jackson
Phillies 3 Detwiler, Gonzalez, Zimmerman
Since my favored playoff 5-game playoff rotation (assuming a division win) would be Gonzalez, Zimmerman, Jackson, Detwiler (if needed), Gonzalez (if needed), I guess I'd be in favor of spot starters on the last two games of the regular season.
#4 great story about Holtz, the Tribe did play in the old Tangerine Bowl verse Toledo that season, or maybe it was 71? You probably know this, but Holtz coaching staff was loaded with future great coaches among them Bobby Ross and Larry Pectello
Great work on the projected rotation. Duke would slide in nicely for the spot start with Gorzo or Stammen covering the finale.
glen burnie, huh? that explains things.
F&I, I don't think it's the money. It's that ALR would be blocking other first basemen in years 3 and 4 of that contract (and maybe even in year 2, depending on Moore's development). By other first basemen, I mean Moore and perhaps the move of RZ to that position.
LaRoche cannot play any other position, not even left field.
Set your DVR's.. DRUUUUUU will be on Intentional Talk today.
NCN, I like your rotation. Agreed on Gio for the first start in the playoffs (assuming divisional series). Davey might swap Det and Jackson, though, to go L/R/L/R.
F&I - Werth is a sunk cost. ALR is not. You don't seem to grasp the difference. Hilarious!
Well, if ALR keeps attracting attention like this piece at fangraphs, maybe he will get that big contract:
Adam LaRoche's Suddenly Elite Power
what does that graph supposed to tell us! seems like some lazy work by the author.
FS
The writers tend to a geeky shorthand over there, which I think accounts for the chart, but the pt is the one he makes in the text too--that ALR's #s this year are in most categories only a mild improvement over his career horms.
As for the chart--100=ALR's career norm in each category, so a score higher than 100 means he's doing that much better than his career average, lower than 100 means he's doing that much worse.
Sorry about the deleted posts. Great work on the rotation NCN. It's nice to know that as long as we clinch before the last game of the season, it's pretty easy to make sure that Gio and Znn will have enough rest to start the first games of the playoffs, in whatever order.
I think, though, that Jackson and Detwiler have switched places in the rotation. The current rotation order, starting tonight, is Stras, Det, Jackson, Gio, Znn.
Davey already backed off the Lannan vs. ATL plan a bit. But if he wanted to do it, he could go with the following, which would split up the two remaining RH pitchers (good for bullpen mgmt) and line up 2 LHs for the Braves:
Marlins 3 Strasburg, Det, E-Jax
Mets 3 Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Strasburg
OFF DAY
Braves 3 Lannan, Detwiler, E-Jax
OFF DAY
Dodgers 3 Gio, Zimmermann, Lannan,
Brewers 4 Detwiler, E-Jax, Gio, Zimmerman,
Phillies 3 Lannan, Detwiler, E-Jax,
Cardinals 3 Gio, Zimmerman, Lannan,
Phillies 3 Detwiler, E-Jax, Wang/Maya/Duke
This would be giving Gio seven days rest between his starts against the Mets and the Dodgers. So perhaps he flips Gio and Jackson and goes with 3 lefties against the Braves and then flips Lannan and Znn with the second off day to break up the lefties. It's a fun puzzle and I'm sure Davey will figure out the best solution.
I'm also still holding out hope that Davey is playing mind games with Freddi Gonzales and is planning to hold back Stras after this start and send him up against the Braves in the first game of the climactic series in ATL. Hah!
In all this talk about extending ALR, why hasn't anyone brought up Tyler Moore? Adam is having a great year, but the question is whether he is likely to repeat these numbers in 2013 and 2014 and can Moore or Morse do better per dollar?
regarding the rotation, I think they arrange things such that Lannan doesn't go against the Phillies, given past history. NCNatsie's second version provides that.
Section 222: Nobody is better at mind games than Davey---even at the age of 69!
The Chess Master--with a lot of good pieces!
I have tix to tonight's game, and have always taken the Red Line in the past. Am I reading correctly that it will close at 10 tonight?. If so, what do folks recommend for parking? (Seems like I have seen references to the "Concrete Plant" here?)
DaveB -
To get to the concrete plant area, take the SE Freeway/I-695 to the South Capitol Street exit.
After you get onto South Cap, QUICKLY merge into the right lane so you can turn right on M Street.
Right on M, then left across the oncoming traffic onto Half Street. You'll see a sign telling you not to enter First during Nats Park events, except local traffic. Unless there are cops around, ignore it.
Take Half Street through a sketchy neighborhood, all the way past Potomac Avenue, to T Street. Right on T, then right on First. there should be plenty of spots on First. if you feel lucky, continue back up First to S, and turn right there; there should be spots available there if you get there early enough.
I barely got to the park on time for first pitch yesterday, but still had no problem getting a spot on First.
There are also lots of metered spaces at the Homeland Security building at T and Half.
You have to feed the meter until 6:30. If you have a smart phone, you can download the Parkmobile app to pay by credit card through your phone - takes a little practice, but it's handy. I think the meters are a dollar an hour, so if you get there at 5:00, you get full game parking for under two bucks.
P.U. Stras turned in a real stinker.
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