Sunday, August 5, 2012

Bouncing back yet again


US Presswire photo
Stephen Strasburg improved to 12-5 while raising his batting average to .343.
There may be no pitcher in baseball who beats himself up after a poor outing more than Stephen Strasburg. The right-hander might as well be wrapped in Kryptonite during the four days after he takes a loss.

"You don't really want to get close to him," manager Davey Johnson said. "Because he's very cognizant of every little thing that doesn't go the way he plans."

Strasburg may get down on himself after a bad start, but he also rebounds from those rare occasions better than anyone in his profession. Just ask the Marlins, who on Sunday once again served as roadkill for the 24-year-old hurler.

With six scoreless innings of three-hit ball, Strasburg pitched the Nationals to a 4-1 victory and once again erased the negative memories of his prior start.
Read more

123 comments:

Sunshine_Bobby_Carpenter_Is_Too_Pessimistic_For_Me said...

Jesus: good hitter, better pitcher.

He's still our No. 1. For all the talk about J-Zimm's consistency, deal me this ace everytime.

Eugene in Oregon said...
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peric said...

One thing is certain ... he may get shut down but he and the other starters have a chance to push the team out beyond the 30 games over .500 mark before that happens. That would almost assure them the division title. The starting rotation could make that a goal in support of Stras. The other starters and the bullpen should be enough to get them pretty far into the post-season.

Eugene in Oregon said...
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Eugene in Oregon said...

Off topic -- sorry -- but I had prepared this for the previous post:

The past few threads have – quite properly – included numerous kudos for Adam LaRoche. Some have suggested he’s having a ‘career year’ or otherwise exceeding our expectations. Recalling, as Swift Eagle did in one Sunday post, the Prince Fielder-Adam LaRoche discussions of last winter (in which some of the focus was on LaRoche being a notoriously ‘slow starter’) I took a look at his month-by-month numbers for his career vs. 2012. Here they are (I’m only using BA/OBP/SLG and HRs, but his derived numbers seem to be consistent with these) for those of you who are interested:

Career (which includes his 2012 stats):

March/April: .223/.317/.405 (27 HRs)
May: .246/.330/.433 (26 HRs)
June: .252/.317/.454 (29 HRs)
July: .291/.344/.520 (34 (HRs)
August: .318/.384/.588 (42 HRs)
Sept./Oct.: .287/.340/.517 (29 HRs)
Total: .268/.338/.483

2012 only

March/April: .329/.415/.549 (4 HRs)
May: .247/.350/.506 (4 HRs)
June: .182/.253/.466 (7 HRs)
July: .304/.353/.478 (4 HRs)
August: .478/.520/1.043 (4 HRs) (through six games)
Total: .275/.348/.531

The main point I take away is that Mr. LaRoche is doing pretty much exactly what we all should have expected from him based on his month-by-month trends, but with one big exception: He had his best ever March/April. And it might also suggest that his July/August hot streak isn’t a fluke, but simply his expected norm of having excellent Julys and Augusts. And, I would hope, a solid September.

Also, I found that only twice before – in 2009 and 2010 – did he have a decent first month of the season. (In fact, I seem to recall a quote from him to that effect.) Does that suggest (based on a two-year sample and throwing out 2011) that he’s trending toward better early seasons and that such a trend would continue in 2013? I’m not willing go that far, but it’s certainly a pleasant thought if the Nats decide to exercise his option for next season.

Anonymous said...

@peric - yep, get the divisional lead up to 7 or 8 games by mid-September and the Strasburg shutdown will become moot for the regular season. And only the truly delusional would have thought it was a good idea to let him pitch 220 or more innings, which he likely would do if he stayed active through the World Series, having never before pitched more than half that number of innings.

peric said...

The main point I take away is that Mr. LaRoche is doing pretty much exactly what we all should have expected from him based on his month-by-month trends

Actually looking at his ISO, and given he is a run producer who consistently hits in the heart of the lineup. He is doing far better. His currently at .256 ISO was only exceeded only in 2006 while he was with the Braves. That year he had a .276 ISO in 557 plate appearances.

SonnyG10 said...

It just occurred to me that we had a mild winter and spring. Maybe the relatively warmer weather helped LaRoache off to a better start.

Candide said...

We were at the game, no TV commentary, so hope someone here can explain something we saw.

Second inning, Zimmerman AB, Lombo on second. Zimm hits liner to Reyes at short; Reyes throws to Solano at second, ump pumps fist in the air, so we're thinking he called Lombo out, apparent DP. Then we see Solano jawing at the ump and Lombo still standing on second. That was the strangest safe sign that I - and everyone else in our area - ever saw. Lombo eventually came around to score on LaRoche's single.

Did Carp/FP have something to say about that? What happened?

MicheleS said...

Candide, It might be on the highlights at some point. The Umps thought Reyes was trying to "Drop" the ball to get the DP, but they said Reyes caught the ball, and that Lombo was not picked off at 2nd on the play.

mick said...

Look at the Pirates, same record as Braves, wild card will be a dog fight..

peric keeps talking about Perry... what about Meyer and Rosenbaum as part of the future

Eugene in Oregon said...

peric - Understood. But how much of that overall .256 ISO this year is because his 2012 March/April ISO was .220 vs. a career March/April ISO of .182.

My point isn't that Adam LaRoche isn't having a better overall season than average -- he is, and I'm delighted -- but that a lot of that is because of his hot start. Once you get to May 1, his month-by-month numbers are pretty much within the range of what we should have been expecting (assuming he was healthy, which none of us knew for sure).

Candide said...

Thanks Michele... odd - we never saw a "safe" indication from the ump - only the fist pump AFTER Solano caught the relay from Reyes.

baseballswami said...

Candide, etal. -- apparently you are not allowed to intentionally drop a line drive in order to turn a double play. Reyes clearly placed the ball on the ground, picked it up and threw. The odd thing is that if he hadn't done that, he would have caught Lombo off base. He over- thought it.Maybe watched ALR the other day and thought it was cool? Anyway - he tried to get too cute and shot himself in the foot. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

Anonymous said...

@mick - "what about Meyer and Rosenbaum as part of the future"

Rosenbaum has absolutely cratered since his hot start, and besides that as a soft-tosser like Lannan and Milone is not a "Rizzo-type" pitcher. Meyer is still far too raw to be counted on as a starter any time within the next two years. Nate Karns is intriguing given his dominance at Hagerstown and Potomac this year, but at 24 is a bit old for High-A.

Assuming that Lannan and his $5 million salary won't be back next year, nor Wang with all of his injury troubles, and the Nats do not offer Jackson the multiyear extension that he wants (too much for what he is, an innings eating number 4 starter), they will likely be looking outside the organization for their number 5 starter next season as I don't see any real in house possibilities.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Like I said in the in-game thread, last start some people were ready to skewer Strasburg, after a good start today some people are ready to have him start a 1 game playoff. The highs and lows of the fanbase is like a roller coaster ride.

Stras may falter again this season. Just watch and try to enjoy the highs and don't get upset at his lows. Next year he will be close to 100% and should have better command and probably will dominate often. He will have no-hit stuff.

baseballswami said...

So glad that miserable excuse for a human being has left town again. A few weeks ago he tried to rattle Bryce, today he tried to rattle Strassie by yelling that he was balking. Maybe he should pay a little bit more attention to what his own team is doing - or not doing. I may have missed a discussion about it earlier today , but I thought it was very good that Bryce apologized to Buck for the bat breaking thing. He, Stras and Espi are just so intense. I did notice that Carlos Lee had Strass laughing at first base, though.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

http://ckelly.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c562353ef01676915346d970b-pi

Do any of my golfer buddies want to analyze Strasburg's golf swing. Have you ever seen anything like it? No wonder he can get those low pitches.

hiramhover said...

Swami

Personally, I'm prepared to cut Ozzie some slack. It's easier when you remember that he's not so much a baseball manager right now as the "star" of a reality TV show of D-listers.

Ozzie's just following the script. The only way to get attention on those shows is to misbehave. And so Ozzie is.

Gonat said...

Ghost, whatever works and its working. Even Charlie Lau wouldn't be able to improve Strasburgs offense.

Holden Baroque said...

Like I said in the in-game thread, last start some people were ready to skewer Strasburg, after a good start today some people are ready to have him start a 1 game playoff.

What, now we all look alike?

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Sofa, you don't look alike.

Holden Baroque said...

Reyes getting too smart for his own good:
A "catch" in baseball isn't the same as in, say, football. It doesn't matter how long the fielder holds the ball, one he has it in his hand, only if he takes it out intentionally. Reyes had the ball, and "dropped" it from his throwing hand, after he transferred. Just like when, in a normal GIDP, the pivot infielder drops the ball after taking it out, or an outfielder drops it in the process of taking it out of his glove to throw, it's still a catch, and an out. Reyes did that very poorly indeed. Not a bad play, but unnecessary, and really bad execution. And bad acting.

Holden Baroque said...

*onCe he has it...

Sunshine_Bobby_Carpenter_Is_Too_Pessimistic_For_Me said...

Ozzie is an idiot; just ask Adam Dunn.

These are Dunn's homer totals in his career:

26, 27, 46, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38, 38 and 11.

The 11 was the year he spent with Ozzie.

Dunn has 31 this year for Robin Ventura.

Ozzie trying to rattle Bam-Bam and Jesus was premeditated, stupid and bush.

Anonymous said...

@hiramhover - I for one am glad Ozzie is the Marlins manager, just like I am glad they blew so much money signing Jose Reyes (a deal I predict will make Werth's contract look like a genuine bargain before it is all said and done). Here is hoping the horrible Jeffrey Loria is too cheap to fire Ozzie before his deal is up in four years.

fresh2death1997 said...

Harper hit is 10th HR yesterday, yet Anthony Rizzo hit is 9th today, but Rizzo got called in late June. Something to think about..

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Bad long-term deals can cripple a mid-revenue team. Here's hoping Miami has a crippling noose around their necks with bad long-term deals.

Holden Baroque said...

Harper hit is 10th HR yesterday, yet Anthony Rizzo hit is 9th today, but Rizzo got called in late June. Something to think about...

Some people dig the long ball, it's true. Harper does so much more than Rizzo, who looks like a good ballplayer.

Eugene in Oregon said...

John Buck on the Strasburg-shutdown debate:

“Fine with me,” catcher John Buck said with a wry grin. “I think it’s a great idea. I think it’s absolutely the right thing to do. Why would you want to risk your franchise player like that?” (From the Miami Herald)

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

fresh2death1997 said...
Harper hit is 10th HR yesterday, yet Anthony Rizzo hit is 9th today, but Rizzo got called in late June. Something to think about..


So now you want to compare a 23 year old rookie who got playing time last year to a 19 year old?

Just more stupidity.

JaneB said...

Highlight of the day, for me, was seeing Drew come in and finish 'em off. I admit I was nervous and then when he was about 60feet out of the BP, decided to Trust In Davey. We need him AND Clip, and I am glad we have them both, Good get away day for our guys.

Thanks for the stats on ALR, Eugene. Nice job!

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Say happy birthday to Anthony Rizzo who turns 23 this week.

mick said...
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mick said...

karlkolchak

Thank you for the analysis... was not aware of Rosenbaum's struggles. Makes sene about Meyer. I know nothing about Karns but that is good news to know.

love your handle and I was huge Night Stalker fan.

FYI: The original Night Stalker movie in 1971 or 72 written by the late Dan Curtis (Dark Shadows) was the scariest ever made for TV movie. The second one was scary too Night Strangler..

peric said...

So now you want to compare a 23 year old rookie who got playing time last year to a 19 year old?

Just more stupidity.


Most 19 year olds are in the low A minors as was Rizzo. Harper won't be 20 until October. Something to consider "fresh2death". Harper is basically about as "fresh" as one can get in major league baseball.

mick said...
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Holden Baroque said...

Besides Reyes, there's Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle. The Cubs are paying for most of Zambrano. Carlos Lee comes off after this year, and they don't have a lot of long-term contracts. So they aren't really that tied up.

mick said...

Sunshine_Bobby_Carpenter_Is_Too_Pessimistic_For_Me

I agree about Ozzie

Ozzie cracks me up... he is one of the funniest buffoons in all of sports

Eugene in Oregon said...

Not to mention that Mr. Rizzo and Mr. Harper are being asked to play entirely different roles in the line-up of their respective teams.

peric said...

for their number 5 starter next season as I don't see any real in house possibilities.

Who are Ryan Perry, Nate Karns, Tanner Roark, Yunesky Maya, Jeff Mandel, Erik Davis, Danny Rosenbaum.

More silliness like comparing a 19 year old like Harper to 23-24 year olds.

ITS the #5 starter NOT the ace stopper? Any of these listed are possibilities next year. As #5. PLUS Tom Gorzelanny (who is a pretty fair starter and more than capable of acting as the #5 starter) and Craig Stammen.

Sheesh!

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

John Buck was full of post-game quotes about Stephen Strasburg's 160 innings limit and the Bryce bat smash incident.

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_baseball_marlins/2012/08/miami-marlins-catcher-john-buck-accepts-apology-from-bryce-harper.html

When Harper, 19, came up again in the sixth he apologized to Buck.
“I saw it hit and that’s why I kind of jumped away,” Buck said. “He told me he was really sorry, it was terrible. I told him, ‘Don’t worry about it. I did the same thing, but when I was your age it was a metal bat and I was in high school.’ It’s a learning experience for him. He’s just having to do it in front of the eyes of the whole country and the world. I bet you he probably won’t do that any more.”

Holden Baroque said...

FP and Bob did mention that most 19-year-olds would be happy with 10 home runs, playing for the freshman team in college somewhere. Just more perspective.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...
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Ghost Of Steve M. said...

OMG, Nyjer Morgan just came in as a pinch-hitter with a man on 1st and no outs and just popped up a double play bunt.

Holden Baroque said...

I bet you he probably won’t do that any more.

After "I fought the Wall, and the Wall won," I'm just glad he didn't put somebody's eye out.

Holden Baroque said...

And to be fair, nobody ever got their eye put out by slamming a baseball glove down in a fit of mid-play pique. Just saying.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Sofa, just an inside-the-park-HR

peric said...

Nate Karns is intriguing given his dominance at Hagerstown and Potomac this year, but at 24 is a bit old for High-A.

And even more silliness as day progresses into Mick's Dark Shadow's night.

Uhhmmm Nate Karn's was a highly touted over-slot 12th round prospect in 2009. He was pitching in a summer Christian league when he finally signed. He was a Sickel's sleeper? BUT he had shoulder surgery and he really didn't start pitching again until toward the end of last season after rehab.

If he graduates to AA as a starter this season he will have traversed almost every level of the minors and "graduated" in less than a year and a half. That basically is anyone's definition of top prospect.

Holden Baroque said...

Well, once he dropped it it was probably a triple anyway.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Sofa, I'm talking about Nyjer in 2010 on Adam Jones and slamming his glove down. Which one are you talking about?

Holden Baroque said...

Jones. Not that we haven't done that to death, but to finish the thought, if he hadn't slammed his glove down, he did still drop the ball, and I doubt, with his arm, he'd have held Jones to a double.

Holden Baroque said...

But I don't remember that play all that well, to be honest. Long time, water long over the dam.

peric said...

Someone will make a commercial out of Harper's bat breaking deal I'm sure ...

He didn't point the shards at Ozzie so that's a good thing ...

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Sofa, I wouldn't say Nyjer dropped the ball. He thought it went over the fence and should have caught it. There's a difference. It wasn't an easy play. Nyjer pouted and slammed his glove down as the ball laid there.

If he didn't pout, agreed, a triple with his noodle arm.

Holden Baroque said...

It hit his glove, he didn't catch it, and it hit the ground. That's a drop.

But more to the point, Harper won't be doing that when he's 20, let alone when he's 30. Jeez, I HOPE he won't.

Holden Baroque said...

He didn't point the shards at Ozzie so that's a good thing ...

Or throw them at Mike Piazza.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100522&content_id=10325668&vkey=news_was&fext=.jsp&c_id=was

Looks like Stammen was the pitcher! For anyone who wants to relive one of Nyjer's un-top 10's

Gonat said...

Oh Nyjer! That was the beginning of the end for Nyjer.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

I'd swear Molina just hit that ball to Gomez in CF that was reminiscent of that Nyjer ball.

Gonat said...

Saw that Ghost. Only Gomez doesn't throw his glove.

peric said...

Something happened to Rosenbaum. He started like an Ace and now looks suspect, probably over-threw and injured himself and won't tell anyone.

I agree. The trend in the minors was to make some changes that somehow allowed pitchers to get a couple or four mph's on the FB. Rosenbaum was able to get into the low 90's as a result as was Lannan. After he made that change Rosenbaum started to have control issues. You have to wonder if the change led to an injury.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

peric, the kid was dominant to start the season. I'm surprised they haven't done an MRI.

Lannan tried the Billy Wagner approach which was building up his lower body which is the same thing Stammen did this off-season. Waiting for the day Detwiler does the same just so he can pitch more with driving those legs and giving himself more stamina.

fresh2death1997 said...

So maybe Bryce could use more Minor league time?

peric said...

peric, the kid was dominant to start the season. I'm surprised they haven't done an MRI.

I guess he's not high enough on the pecking order ... not as much on the radar screen. He is probably going to have to ask before its too late. Albeit you'd think Menhart would have said something by now.

peric said...

So maybe Bryce could use more Minor league time?

Maybe, but right now he is doing better than Trout was at the same age. A lot better. And Harper is playing every day (the reason he would be sent to the minors) and learning something new every day. Davey Johnson is a manager who believes in completing player development of top prospects in the major leagues under his tutelage. Johnson has a history of doing this.

As long as Harper plays every day and continues to learn it probably doesn't matter if he is in AA, AAA, or the majors.

#4 said...

A coupe of thoughts reading through the last three threads. First, Strasburg will not be used as a pinch hitter after his shutdown except in extraordinary circumstances - maybe the 16th inning of a do or die game. Why? First, it would be incredibly insulting to any every day player to have a pitcher put up to hit before you. In September particularly, with the expanded rosters, there will be plenty of PHs available. Second, imagine this headline, "Starsburg suffers career-threatening injury while running the bases during a PH at bat." Not gonna happen.

Second, the most overrated offensive stat is the stolen base. We all need to quit worrying about whether the Nats are throwing guys out. If SBs were so valuable, the Nats wouldn't be leading baseball in team ERA.

peric said...

That leaves 29 games to go with Lannan starting 5 of them in September.

It seems highly likely, at least at this point, that the starts will be shared. Given the performance to date of Ryan Perry. Davey and the FO will probably want to see Ryan Perry as a starter. Maya will also be around but he'll be in the bullpen. And there's still Chien-Ming Wang.

The innings limit is between 160 and 180. Apparently, Rizzo has a number in mind ... or something he has been told to look for by the Medical experts that he will use to make the call. Its not fixed at 160 precisesly.

sjm308 said...

Agree with Peric that those starts will be shared. Still remember how well Detwiler did last Sept on 7 days rest! It set him up for this year in my opinion. We will probably see Perry & Maya for at least one start and I have no idea how they are going to handle Chien-Ming Wang. Does anyone here thing they might just designate him for assignment? If not, they will have to option out another bullpen guy for a couple weeks or lose a bench player and with every game being meaningful I just can't see that happening. More trust in Rizzo I guess and more complaining on NI from those looking to complain.

Go Nats! & good morning all

Anonymous said...

Can Lannan win two or three of the games he will pitch when Stras is benched?? Why not? If SS did pitch, would he win all his games? Probably not. So, with SS out, the difference might be only 1 game +-.

alexva said...

So let me get this straight. Lannan comes in and starts two games, wins them both, the first one being the one of the biggest wins of the year and you think Davey is going to try someone else?

I guess it's hard to think clearly when you are a hater.

Gonat said...

sjm Rizzo has a few housecleaning chores in front of him including Wang.

Gonat said...

Lannan is pitching for this year. the post-season roster, winter trade bait, and next year.

He has certainly come up huge.

Gonat said...

Peric named a bunch of possible #5's for next season and failed to add Lannan's name to his list. No respect.

There may not be any openings in the 2013 rotation if they re-sign EJax or another arm.

baseballswami said...

Maybe CMW is the last of the housecleaning chores. I don't see Desi being back until Sept call ups. That means no one else needs to be moved. TyMo got a reprieve when HRod went on the DL. He answered with a clutch hit to tie a game. We got a best-case scenario. Werth came back ready to go, we got to keep Tyler.

blovy8 said...

Yeah, Lannan is still the best option September. They're going to want to take it easy on Det and Zimmermann if they can, and line up the rotation for the postseason if they clinch early. It would be good to have confidence in Lannan, in case someone goes down in October.

baseballswami said...

The next thing I would like to see before Strassie's season is over is for him to put together even 2 starts in a row where he is effective. He doesn't even have to be dominant - just effective. Not all of his ups and downs are TJ related - some of it is just his intense brain getting in his own way. If he can get his mind to settle in , even if all of his pitches aren't there, it will go a long way toward his preparation for next year.

Gonat said...

NatsJack, unfortunately you are correct. Most Low A ball stars fizzle out and can't make the same transition to High A and AA.

Washington is no longer the destination of 2nd and 3rd chances, just ask Ankiel.

baseballswami said...

Heck, not even 2cd and 3rd chances - there were many players here where this was the very, very last chance.

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

peric said...
That leaves 29 games to go with Lannan starting 5 of them in September.

It seems highly likely, at least at this point, that the starts will be shared.


Doubtful. They haven't been stashing Lannan in AAA all year and paying him $5M just so he can get a couple of spot starts in September. He will get all of Strasburg's regular starts after he is shut down. Yes, Peric, that's every five days. In the words of Joey Eischen, you can suck on it and you can like it.

Now it is possible that some of those other guys like Perry and Maya also get starts in September if the race is not too tight. They may want to stretch out Zimmermann and Detwiler prior to the playoffs to keep their innings count from going too high. Neither one of them has ever pitched a huge number of innings in a season before.

NatsLady said...

swami, Stras did put together good starts.

Friday, June 8.
Wed, June 13.
Wed, June 20.

Also, in Col. June 25 ("quality start.")

natsfan1a said...

Sounds like it was a good weekend in DC (unless you were a Fish). Was away but taped the Saturday and Sunday games and may try to speed-watch them. Will be pretty much replays for me this week given the 8 p.m. or later start times. At least I'll be able to speed through commercials, promos, and such. Yay.

In other news, was shopping at an Ohio flea market over the weekend and one guy had a bunch of baseball cards. I chatted with him while looking through them (found a nice Zimmerman jersey swatch card, too). Anyway, he was rather amazed that I enjoyed watching and talking baseball. He's like, "Not many women are into baseball. They mostly like football, if anything." I'm like, "Do tell. What is this football you speak of?"

A DC Wonk said...

Stras put together five straight great starts in April. (and two quality ones to start off July)

Gonat said...

Baseballswami, Mark once had a list of end of the road teams. It wasn't good to be on the Nook Logan/Matt Stairs list. Nady signed a Minor League deal with SFG.

hiramhover said...

The 5th starter's spot in Sept. is Lannan's to lose. Yes, he could get a couple of shots and lose it. If he does, we're talking about maybe 2-3 starts left at that pt. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gorzo or Stammen come out of the BP for a spot start or two before they get to Wang or Maya.

As for Perry--come on. He's pitched well as a starter, but for all of 2 months--in AA. He needs more success than that to start on a playoff contender in Sept.

A DC Wonk said...

Alexva, I don't think it's hate. I'd also love to see what some of the other young 'uns do pitching. Nothing against Lannan, but he's a known quantity. Looking at other guys is what late Sept is for. (Unless you're still in a penant race ;-) )

Gonat said...

Over the last 2 seasons Stras is 3-0 vs Marlins and 10-6 vs. all other teams.

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

I have no idea how they are going to handle Chien-Ming Wang. Does anyone here thing they might just designate him for assignment?

Unless he has a "relapse" and goes back on the DL, of course they will DFA him. There is no other option. They can't have him occupying a roster spot from 8/11 to 8/31 - that's 18 games - and providing absolutely no value. He can't start, because the rotation is full. He can't pitch out of the bullpen unless the call goes out several innings ahead so he can get warmed up. (He's kind of like the pitching version of Peking Duck. Must order 24 hours in advance.) He's useless. He's dead weight. He's a "project". There's no room for that in a pennant race.

baseballswami said...

NatsLady - sorry - didn't explain well enough. I know he was good in consecutive starts in June. Didn't mean he never has been. I meant now, at this point of the season , because he has been kind of up and down from start to start. I know he can do it, even physically, just would like to see him work on his mental game for this last month. The stuff is there, it's the learning how to be a pitcher, keeping calm, mound demeanor, not out-thinking himself that I would like to see level out in his remaining starts. ( you know, before the baseball world comes to a crashing halt because he is shut down)

Gonat said...

hiram, disagree. Davey does not want to put extra innings on Stammen's and Gorzo's arms with spot starts.

Perry is on the 40 man and if there is an opportunity, Rizzo will want to showcase him as he's out of options after this season.

Maya is probably the next option for a September spot start.

A DC Wonk said...

Off topic shout out to Werth: in his four games since coming back he has five hits, five walks, and just 1 K.

(and raised his BA 15 points to .291)

Maybe he _is_ more than, as a few here vociferously argued, an expensive bencher?

Gonat said...

DC Wonk, consider the vociferous voice. Best to ignore. I hope Werth becomes the RH leadoff.

Do I think Werth will be a starter in 2016 and 2017? Let's go year by year before we nail Werth to the bench.

NCNatsie said...

Here's the actual every 5th day schedule for Stras:

Aug 10 @Ariz
Aug 15 @SF
Aug 21 vAtl
Aug 28 @Mia
Sep 2 vStl
Sep 7 vMia
Sep 12 @NYM ????

He has 127.1 innings in to date. To get to 160, which remember has never actually been announced as the magic number, like it was for Zimm, he gets six or possibly seven starts (160-127.1=32.9 divided by 5=6.58.

Following the Mets game on 9/12, he would have three starting slots left -- Lannan's portion: Sept 19 v Dodgers, Sept 24 v Brewers and Sept 29, the next-to-last regular season game v Cardinals.

As others have said, much depends on what the situation is with regard to the race. If it's competitive right to the end, there's less likelihood of experimentation.

NCNatsie said...

Correction, the Sept 29 game is AT St. Louis.

hiramhover said...

Gonat

I see your pt. Using Gorzo (or esp. Stammen) out of the BP would certainly not be a first choice. I suppose they could start Perry and give him a quick hook--but in that case, they could easily end up leaning heavily on Gorzo as a long reliever, and thus not save him much anyway.

Seems to me that if the playoffs are really on the line, they're not going to hand the ball to a guy with a total of 9 minor league starts at AA. But if we're talking about trash time at the end of the season--yes, we might see Perry.

NatsLady said...

HH, I agree, Perry is for next year (unless by some miracle we are up by 8 games mid-September). There is plenty of time to "showcase" him in the spring. I doubt he will turn into another Henry, that is, a drag on the roster because he doesn't have options. If Perry can start, he will find a home, here or elsewhere.

Gonat said...

NatsJack, yep, welcome to crunch time. This year's new playoff rules favor the team with the best record. Rizzo may want to keep his foot floored until the end to face the Wild Card winner.

NatsLady said...

Yeah, and somehow I don't see Atlanta letting us walk away with the division. And I don't see Cincy (or the Cards, for that matter) letting us walk away with the best record in the NL. We see the Cards for six, and since the All-Star break they have the best pitching and the best hitting in the NL. They will be fighting for their playoff lives, and they won't give an inch.

natsfan1a said...

Duh, yeah. We're Nats fans. Baby steps. ;-)


Sure seems apparent alot of people haven't been exposed to a pennant race.

NatsLady said...

Luckily, we have a manager who has been so exposed. Several times. Steady as she goes, keep the relievers rested, the starters ready and the position players healthy.

Holden Baroque said...

somehow I don't see Atlanta letting us walk away with the division. And I don't see Cincy (or the Cards, for that matter) letting us walk away with the best record in the NL.

Of course, it may not be up to them. Giant Steps.

BigCat said...

Good article on Nate Karns. www.insidenova.com sports etc. Took a year off to take care of his ailing mom. Seems like well grounded, mature kid.

Gonat said...

Thinking both wild card teams will use their best pitcher in the Wild Card playoff.

Holden Baroque said...

Gonat, they probably will if they can, but then, they might have had to use him just getting there.

sjm308 said...

Agreed NatsJack - this is uncharted territory for a lot of us - I was thinking back to last year when there was no pressure on the team or Davey and he could basically mix and match. Not at all the case now unless we go on a huge tear and the Braves fold. It would be great to see what Maya & Perry could do but certainly not at the expense of a playoff spot. Still, they are on the 40 man roster so there will be no harm in bringing them up.

I think pRAA is right on Wang but that saddens me because I was rooting for him to be a big difference for us this year. I keep thinking way way back to when he was a Yankee and obviously that is an entirely different situation. I feel certain if we do let him go he will be picked up immediately but I do not want to play meaningful games with a 24 man roster which is what it would be with Wang in the bullpen. We had that with HRod in his last few weeks and it was not pretty.

How tired are the rest of you with these "experts" just spewing out the garbage about Nationals Fans being upset with closing Strasburg down. Have they actually polled Nationals Fans? Of course not. It's usually just old pitchers who remember the good old days. I was outside grilling last night and Bert Blyleven came on just crushing Rizzo about the move. Its just getting old. I must say I did like the projection from Natsie showing him perhaps going until 9/12. Hope by then we can breath a little easier but I think this race will go until Oct when we end our season against the Phillies.

Go Nats!

natsfan1a said...

Somehow I am reminded of one of my fave non-Nats baseball moments.

Of course, it may not be up to them. Giant Steps.

natsfan1a said...

Eh, who cares what the "experts" spew?

How tired are the rest of you with these "experts" just spewing out the garbage about Nationals Fans being upset with closing Strasburg down.

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

NatsJack in Florida said...
Gonat..... I'd prefer the second best record this year due to the best record having to go to the Wild Card for the first 2 games.


Won't the second best record have to go to the third best record for the first two games? What's the difference between that and having to go to the wild card?

Holden Baroque said...

Seriously, is there some other venue somewhere, besides talk radio ignorami, I mean, where fans actually are against shutting him down?

sjm308 said...

I have also started looking at possible playoff scenarios and I think I am correct that even if we have the 2nd best record we will start the playoffs away against the #3 team. I think for this year and this year only the lower seeded team gets the first two games followed by 3 at home (if needed) for the higher seeded team. After this year it will revert back to the 2-2-1 with the home team having the first two games. If that is the case, I want to play the wild card because they will in all probability have to throw their best pitcher in the play-in game. the only problem is that we will not know where we are traveling to but I think there is a day off after the play-in game just for that reason. If we are 2nd its pretty obvious that the West Coast Team will be #3 and that is tough traveling for a 5 game series. Just a thought.

Holden Baroque said...

And then, some folks were Cubs fans, and have mostly blocked out any memory of pennant races.

sjm308 said...

Or as Jim Mora said "PLAYOFFS??, YOU'RE TALKING PLAYOFFS??"

Gonat said...

ESPN definitely dialed back the Strasburg debate last night and instead talked about him coming off the bench as a pinch-hitter (somewhat tongue in cheek).

natsfan1a said...

True that, NatsJack.

NatsJack in Florida said...

Hello 1a....remember, some of us follow other teams (in my case, the Rays) and have been exposed to playoff races.

While I don't classify myself as a true fan of the Rays, I do follow them as my favorite AL team.
August 06, 2012 9:58 AM

Faraz Shaikh said...

The idea that wild card teams will have to use their ace in one game playoff is absurd. Just look at last season, Carpenter, Price, Lester, and Hudson were all used on the last day, not because that game was important but that's how it lined up.

NatsLady said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

Again, with the true seeding and the 2-3 schedule, the best and second best records are playing their first two games on the road. But the best record is facing the wild card team, which presumably would be less fresh than the #3 record due to having to win the play-in game. Thus it would seem that the team with the best record is better off. And no team can control what other teams are doing, so there's no way to try and work your way into a series with a particular opponent or avoiding a particular opponent. So the only logical move is to try for the best record you can get, and then reap any advantages that come to you on account of that.

sjm308 said...

NatsJack - I think you are off on this one. I think for this year and just this year the two lower seeded teams get the first two home games. That would be the wild-card winner and the #3 seed.

After this year it reverts back to what it usually is which is 2-2-1 with the best team hosting the 1st two games.

sjm308 said...

pRAA is of course correct and I can never see a scenerio where a team would ease off to try and manipulate their seed in baseball. It might happen in hockey and basketball where there are so many teams but in baseball you are basically trying to win every game and get the best record possible.

sjm308 said...

NatsJack - its not bad at all, this is how civilized people deal with stuff on a baseball blog. There was no name calling or put downs and its why you are someone I read. I can't tell you how great it is in the spring to come to NI and get your insights from in-person visits. Hope to see you at Nats Park again soon.

Go Nats!

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

My error comes from listening to Rob Dibble back when the added Wild Card was announced. Totally my bad.

There's nothing wrong with listening to Dibble. The problem arises when you start believing what you hear.

sjm308 said...

I will see you Saturday!

Eugene in Oregon said...

If SFNatsFan (or any other Californian) is out there...

I'm heading down to San Francisco next week for, among other things, the two night games (Monday and Tuesday) against the Giants. Unfortunately, we can't be there for the Wednesday day game. I plan to buy tix later today on StubHub. At the new (to me, still) park, is 1st or 3rd base side better -- for whatever reason -- for evening games? Or does it really matter? Also, any recommendations near the park to have dinner before the game with my family? Thx.

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