Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Beltway Baseball Live - 3/13/12
We've reached the halfway point of spring training, and there have been no shortage of storylines down in Viera so far. Seems like a good time to recap what has happened and what is still yet to come.
CSNwashington.com's Chase Hughes and I discussed a bunch of topics today at 1 p.m. in our latest edition of Beltway Baseball Live. We were also joined live from Viera by the Washington Times' Amanda Comak, who filled us in on the latest from Nationals camp. And, as always, we answered your questions.
If you missed the show -- or if you had audio troubles -- don't fret. Here's the episode in its entirety for your viewing pleasure.
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82 comments:
Of the bubble & cut players, who has impress you the most this Spring Training?
Sorry, "impressed"
Who do you think is the Opening Day starter?
What do you think is "fair value" in return for John Lannan, if he is indeed traded?
How long will the Nats stick with Ian Desmond if he struggles and Lombardozzi and Rendon are playing well?
Does this team have the offense to compete for a play-off spot?
Steve (@69Nats_Fan)
This is too good not to post. After 5AM, Buster Olney Posted about Ryan Zimmerman & then 2 hours later Peter Gammons awoke & responded to Buster Olney and says if the Nats get men on base in front of Ryan Zimmerman he is a MVP Candidate!
Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN
Ryan Zimmerman is killing the ball. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/post/ryan-zimmerman-would-rather-see-curveballs-than-hit-home-runs-in-spring-training/2012/03/12/gIQALEC67R_blog.html
Peter Gammons @pgammo
@Buster_ESPN Watching him this spring:if they get on base at the top of the order, here's an MVP candidate in waiting
Of the in-house OF options so far, who has impressed, who has regressed, and who should be distressed?
A lot of folks believe Harper will be up in May, or June at the latest, so we have a short term need until then, and then a possible longer term need if the MM-ALR switch at first is made this year. (I'm not worried about next year because of the strong FA market.)
Also, with all the RHP in the starting rotation, is DJ more likely to keep two LH relievers in Gorzy and Detwiler?
Did anyone see Al Leiter's piece on Strasburg on MLB Network last night? He spoke about having noticed that Stras's mechanics seem unchanged, and then demonstrated what the inverted w is, and how the great rotational forces it causes can lead to injury. He said he hoped for the Nationals' sake this pitching trait didn't come back to haunt them.
Would it be too much to ask one of the team's beat writers to ask management whether they give any weight to the now well-known biomechanical knowledge regarding pitching mechanics?
Mark:
Lots of people here have LannEn traded either sooner or later. I feel like we should keep him, even if its in the minors as no team makes it through a season with 5 starters. My question though is WHO is available in a trade that can actually strengthen our team? and would LannEn be of enough value or would we have to include prospects as well. Thanks!
Anon 7:49.. Saw the Leiter Piece.. sid you notice at the end that he said "Other" Pitchers have this issue and haven't been injured. So there is that hope. Doesn't Halladay have the same arm action?
With Rendon & LaRoche returning from injuries and long lay-offs, there has been much trepidation on both, what are your thoughts on both?
Brad Lidge seems to have had good results so far this spring. His slider was still devastating last season after he returned from injury, but his fastball was greatly diminished. Are there any reports about his fastball velocity this spring?
IF the Nats get men on base in front of Zim, he's an MVP candidate according to Gammons? Big if.
Desmond's the biggest issue the club has right now.
How do they expect to win more games than they lose in the NL East with at best iffy D at SS and a .305 OBP, if he plays to his average, leadoff man?
dfh21
What's the club's course of action if it's as good as it's going to get in the middle infield?
Has there been any scuttlebutt regarding Wilson Ramos, specifically post-trauma? Any observations?
What's the story on Desmond's offseason revamping of his swing? Will he stick with it or will Davey and Eck get him back to his late season approach?
(Didn't realize ST was halfway through. It sneaked up on me.)
Good piece by Leiter. Thanks, er, Anon, for pointing it out.
Ditto MicheleS on the "other pitchers" sentiment.
Mark and Chase, maybe you can answer: What, if anything, has Strasburg changed since the TJ surgery?
Off Topic: To the Season Ticket Holders (both Full and Partial), Did anyone get an email in the last day or so about the discount code from Karl? I was wondering if it was legit because it had an attachment and I try not to open anything that I am not sure about. I did send it to contact at the ticket office to confirm.
How concerned are the Nationals in LaRoche not being fully healthly yet? Do we think this will linger all year?
I'm not a Lannan booster, but looking to next year, don't the Nats have to be careful? They have Jackson and Wang on one-year deals and Solis will be coming off TJ surgery.
Doesn't a Lannan trade now mean the Nats will need to gain another free agent pitcher in the offseason?
If Ejax, Wang and Lannan are gone who fills out the 2013 rotation? Detwiler could be a No. 4, but it seems the rotation depth would be thin, even if Danny Rosenbaum continues to progress.
I can't imagine Purke or the big fella from Kentucky will be ready by next spring.
Even with such a short sample time does Brown realistically become someone this organization might think is an answer in the outfield?
What are the odds of getting Komatsu and/or Myers back?
Laddie_Blah_Blah
MichelleS -- don't open it! We haven't seen anything about it and we get duplicative email as STHs. Send it to your ticket guy at NatsPark, so they can know it is going on.
Love the question about if we trade LannEn, is there anyone worth getting, or is this for prospects only? In a related question, do you all think, as things are going now, that Wang starts the season on the DL or pitching the fifth day?
Finally, two years ago, they used a four man rotation for a while, and then brought in Livan. Any chance they do that, so the opening day guy in Chicago is the opening day guy for us?
Actually, that wasn't finally. THIS is: What will it take to let Teddy win? This is not a joke question. I think it goes to have we turned this vibe around or not. How do we convince them to let go of the years-old "plan" for him to win when we are in the playoffs and just knock out the lovable loser thing right now, first game, and make a statement to every one that we mean to be a force to reckon with? I say "we" like "we" have anything to do with whether the Nats win or lose. But we can help -- and so can Teddy, in my view. Serious question.
PS....Pudge! Is there any hope of someone taking him before opening day?
No STH email here either. From Karl or anyone else.
Drew --
Good points re our FA starting pitchers, but I would guess that the thinking is that if EJax and Wang work out and continue to look solid, that they would want to stay (contending team, good chemistry and all that) and we would want to keep them. Especially now, RZim has shown the way in having a big $ extension that doesn't hurt the club's ability to sign and resign effective talent. From all reports, EJax would like to settle down if mutually workable, and Wang clearly feels strong loyalty to the Nats (which I wrote last fall before his current one-year, given his background and personal sense of things).
I'm fairly neutral on Lannan -- see his substantial strengths and shortcomings -- but agree that for this year, it may even make sense to stash him in Syracuse given the Stras innings limit, the questions about Wang's durability over the whole season, and the usual expectation that someone will DL for some part of the season.
Also,MicheleS, agree with NatsNut. Only emails I've gotten as an STH from the Nats have either been broadcast promos/FYIs or from a ST agent I've dealt with before.
Drew
I wouldn't worry too much about the 2013 lineup at this point--certainly, it's not a reason to keep Lannan around, since he'll make even more than this year's $5M next year.
With the money they save from Lannan, CMW, and LaRoche coming off the books at the end of this season (if not sooner), the Nats will have money to spend next year. There will be some decent FA pitchers available in 2013, inc. EJax, and it shouldn't be that hard to pick up a 4-5 starter.
You know Vlad is still a FA. Any chance we bring him back for one season as a bat off the bench and a backup of a backup OF? I think he qualifies as a power bat off the bench, doesn't he? Or is he too old?
JaneB, the schedule is not conducive to using only a 4 man rotation like we have in years past. Which brings me to a question... Why is there not a scheduled day off after the Nats home opener? I thought that was standard practice?
Question: While all the trade speculation.has centered on Lannan, isn't it possible we could get more value from our excess bullpen arms - Mattheus, Gorzo, Durbin?
Also, I wonder if it realistic to think that Corey Brown will be our starting cf in 2013?
Vlad is still a fine hitter, but his power numbers took a dive last year even in hitter friendly Camden Yards .
I guess the strategy for Corey Brown is telling him "go down to AAA, and if you keep hitting like you did in August/September and this Spring Training, you're back on track to be our CF of the future." If he tears it up in Minor League campi think he'll be added to the 40 man. And then IF he tears up AAA like he did in AA in 2010, I'll bet on him being called up before September....
Were you surprised that Davey publicly called out Desmond? Is his spot as the Opening Day leadoff hitter in any jeopardy? How long of a leash will he have when the season starts and what is the most likely plan B if they have to drop him down in the lineup? (Last season he led off for the first 12 games of the season after which he was batting .180 and had an OPS of .512 before Espinosa took over at the top of the order.)
And no, I am not a "Desmond hater." The national media is starting to notice that this is one of the few weaknesses the Nats have. In this case, they are right.
If he tears it up in Minor League campi think he'll be added to the 40 man. And then IF he tears up AAA like he did in AA in 2010, I'll bet on him being called up before September....
Players aren't put on the 40 man roster as a reward for good play in spring training. They are put on because they have to be on the 40 man to be called up to the 25 man. So Corey Brown won't be on the 40 man again until they are about to bring him back to the big leagues -- either in September, or earlier if he's needed and his play warrants it.
The reason to not put someone on the 40 man just to say "good job" is if you need to remove him for some reason he'd have to go through waivers.
Drew said...
I'm not a Lannan booster, but looking to next year, don't the Nats have to be careful? They have Jackson and Wang on one-year deals and Solis will be coming off TJ surgery.
Doesn't a Lannan trade now mean the Nats will need to gain another free agent pitcher in the offseason?
If Ejax, Wang and Lannan are gone who fills out the 2013 rotation? Detwiler could be a No. 4, but it seems the rotation depth would be thin, even if Danny Rosenbaum continues to progress.
I can't imagine Purke or the big fella from Kentucky will be ready by next spring.
March 13, 2012 9:10 AM
You bring up a great point on Lannan and the fact Wang and EJax are on 1 year deals. Rizzo has a plan of his own and all that early February rumors of an imminent trade of Lannan was false.
The team will reassess their situation in a couple of weeks and continue to field trade calls from other teams.
By the way, Purke will start in High-A and should blow them away and end up in AA by the end of the season. I think there is a good chance of seeing him in Nats Park sometime in 2013. The kid is as good as advertised and just needs to stay healthy and listen to his coaches. As he fills out his frame, this kid will add a couple MPH to that fastball. He's a little thicker than Detwiler, and looks like he will fill out.
That inning+ that Purke threw yesterday was against reall MLB ballplayers and he fooled Matt Holliday on a swing & miss and got Freese who earlier hit a HR oppo to fly out oppo with 2 on base.
Wait, is that Koolaidthat Lidge and Clippard are drinking? :-)
Kilgore has some interesting tidbits on his roster projection:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/post/a-guess-at-the-nationals-opening-day-roster/2012/03/13/gIQAz87T9R_blog.html
He has some good insight on Gorzy. I had no idea there was an "out-clause" on him, where they could cut him by next Weds and owe him $500k. I feared that Gorzy was guaranteed $3m that was awarded during arbitration. The buy-out provides a lot of flexibility. Though it's always good to get something in return for Gorzy, it may be a smart decision to cut bait next week. Having him go down to the minors as a starter is another good option, better he than Lannan, as Adam makes a good point about the negative msg being made if Lannan is sent down.
The diff b/t Lannan & Gorzy is that the former has consistently produced, even tho there may have been a couple speed bumps along the way. The latter can be sent down due to under-performance, whereas Lannan would only be sent down b/c of the surplus of pitching.
Anonymous8 said...
With Rendon & LaRoche returning from injuries and long lay-offs, there has been much trepidation on both, what are your thoughts on both?
March 13, 2012 8:00 AM
This was my biggest fear coming into Spring Training on the present & future re: injuries.
Rendon hadn't lifted a bat against live pitching until he got to Florida and as Mark'd and also NatsJack astutely pointed out last week, Rendon is basically on a rehab assignment, and guess what, he passed the test which was Davey saying he liked what he saw. Scouts are saying he will be a high batting average player with a good eye when he is back to full speed.
On LaRoche, he is probably several weeks from building the muscles in his shoulder back up to where he is 100% comfortable. I think he said he is getting close. A healthy LaRoche is a key to the Nats success this year.
but if you add Brown to the 40 man later in the year just to bring him up, then you have to cut someone from the 40 man, correct? unless we're at 39. i don't remember, but i assume we've done this in years past, remove someone from the 40 man mid-year.
I'm not a Demsond hater either, but the guy looks completely lost at a time when he has everything to prove. The "trust us, we have faith in Desmond" line from Nats management is beginning to fail the laugh test.
I believe there is a scheduled day off after the opener (in case of rainout, or, since it's Chicago, snowout) but not the home opener. It's a four-game series with the Reds, and plenty of time to reschedule or have a double-header if necessary. I think if every team had an off-day after their opener and their home opener, scheduling April would quickly turn into a nightmare.
re: Desi. I think it's sort of sad but very indicative of the state of things that he's reassured by "not having to check for his name in the lineup." A player certain of his status would not worry about that, but would trust he'd be in the lineup based on opponents, health, etc. I'm rooting for him.
We have plenty of room on the 40 man roster. We have 38 now, and in a few weeks we can shift 2 guys to the 60 day DL. So there's no complication with adding Brown or anyone else.
Interesting piece on Fangraphs comparing Rendon and Rockies' 3B prospect Nolan Arenado. Very high marks for Rendon.
Sunderland, the point is why add Brown if you don't have to. It is harder to take them off the 40 man once they are on there.
Anybody keeping track of starting pitcher assignments and the rotation for the spring? I'm headed down for 4 games this week (Thursday-Sunday) and would be interested to know who I'll see throwing. Cheers!
I don't really understand the spring training process. To wit: what does it mean, and/or why, was Corey Brown cut yesterday, and Eury Perez retained?
This is not a criticism at all -- I'm sure there are things in the process of which I'm unaware, and I'm hoping the brilliant commenters here (or Mark's Beltway Baseball) can clue me in here.
Thanks!
Sunderland - How do "we" have plenty of room on the 40 man when the Nats only have 2 spots now? The Nats have probably never been in such a good position on their 40 man roster as they are now -but- they still have to add Ankiel and probably one more bench player who isn't on the 40 man.
If the Nats move Marrero and Kimball to the 60 day DL to clear room once they are set to come off the DL they need to add them back which would keep the Nats at 40 or looking to DFA others at that time.
The issues really will come at the trade deadline when the Nats add player(s) for the stretch run.
Mark, do you think the performance of the Nats' OF/CF prospects like Perez, Brown, and even Michael Taylor has in Rizzo's/Davey's minds cooled whatever continuing felt need there is to trade now for a starting CF, understanding also the "we're ready to play Werth in center" line? Do you think they're at the "let's just see how things play out stage", and will see how fast Harper and the other prospects develop, how healthy and productive LaRoche is, and whether any deals suggest themselves towards the trade deadline as a result of the above?
That Kilgore article on relievers was pretty good. It also gave reasons why I consider Clippard better than Venters and Robertson. We also know how Riggs' managing took a toll on the bullpen. Can't really blame him for that either. Anyways, glad to have Lidge and HRod's 100 MPH back.
A DC Wonk said...
I don't really understand the spring training process. To wit: what does it mean, and/or why, was Corey Brown cut yesterday, and Eury Perez retained?
This is not a criticism at all -- I'm sure there are things in the process of which I'm unaware, and I'm hoping the brilliant commenters here (or Mark's Beltway Baseball) can clue me in here.
Thanks!
My 2 cents is that Corey Brown was 1 of 3 LH outfield guys and was the odd man out as Bernadina is out of options and on the 40 man and Ankiel who is a non-roster invitee and the heir apparent to Opening Day starter if healthy and Corey is not on the 40 man and has no real MLB experience so he was the guy to go. It was a shame to not get some more looks at Corey but I am sure Davey saw what he needed to see.
Eury Perez and Brett Carroll are the 2 RH outfielders Davey wants to look at more. I don't think Eury is ready but who knows what Rizzo and Davey are thinking. They are in need of a RH outfielder who can platoon with the LH outfielders who as we know clearly can't hit LH pitching well.
March 13, 2012 11:21 AM
They clearly don't look at Brown as a bench OFer. I liked hearing Johnson's and Werth's opinion of him.
Gardner re: pitching assignments..... Jackson tonite against the Tigers, Strasburg against the Braves on Wednesday, Wang followed by Lannen against the Yankees Thursday, Gio scheduled for Friday in Tampa, Jordan Saturday against the Fish and Jackson again Sunday against the Tigers.
For anyone in Viera or traveling to the 6pm game, there is a 1pm scrimmage on the practice fields for those not traveling.
It is a great glimpse into the inner workings of the team.
Brown cleared waivers last November, so he stays in the Nats system all this year, regardless of whether he is on the 40-man, or not. No need to put him there, now. Rizzo will want the flexibility to play with those slots, and he is not going to use one if he does not have to. If or when they decide to call up Brown, they will use it for that purpose.
Jeez, Ankiel is already injured and Bernie is a logical candidate as throw-in trade fodder. Morse has that back injury, already, and LaRoche will be questionable until such time as he is not. If Brown continues to perform, chances are he fills a roster spot for someone who has been traded or placed on IR. It's a long season.
Laddie_Blah_Blah
David said...
They clearly don't look at Brown as a bench OFer. I liked hearing Johnson's and Werth's opinion of him.
March 13, 2012 11:42 AM
I don't see it as "clearly" as you. Brown isn't on the 40 man or out of options so he is out of luck. That's the way it works. Add to that the real lack of MLB experience and he goes back to AAA.
If Davey thought he could contribute more than Bernie or Ankiel, he would have stayed as a starter or bench player. Now he has to have a great year in AAA and wait for his opportunity.
Laddie_Blah_Blah, well said! That's how it works. Look, I would have liked to have seen Corey here another week to see if it continued. Good glove, arm, speed, power. If he could hit for average he would be a legit starter. When he's healthy, he's a heck of a player.
At some point soon they need to rejigger the rotation to line it up so the Opening Day starter has four days rest that day, and everyone who follows has proper rest. Based on what NatsJack has reported, that rejiggering if it happens won't be until next week at the earliest. As the starters are currently lined up, Gio would have Opening Day, JZimm would have game #2 and the home opener, Jackson would have game #3, Strasburg would have game #4 in NYC and his bobblehead game, and Wang/Lannan would have game #5. I could easily see them going with that.
By "clearly" I didn't mean he's our CFer right now, but Davey said himself if keeps playing like that, he will solve our CF problem. That's a high endorsement for the future. A bench OFer getting sparse at-bats is not a solution to our CF problem. The team doesn't look at him in that light, or he'd still be with the major league camp duking it out with the other bench guys. He was hitting as well as they were....
The other Harper throws some cold water on all the Corey Brown love going on this spring. Worth a read.
Just me or is sound not working?
not hearing any sound
No sound here....
Here's where Harper G. is wrong about CBrown and his comparison to that JMax guy. Brown can hit RH pitching. JMax couldn't hit RH pitching.
LH outfielders who can hit RH pitching well and have other tools can stick. Maybe not as a starter. I agree that anyone thinking CBrown is an absolute starter on this team is crazy. Maybe down the road as Davey says but 8 games of ST is not enough----although its a good start!
I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid but I must say, CBrown got my attention!
not here, either
Yep, no sound either..
I tried to send Mark a tweat on the no sound...
No pic or sound here.
I still have no sound.
No sound for me :(
no sound out here in california
no sound, but the commercial works great!
Sound is back...
Steve M.
Now C. Brown must go down to AAA and dominate over 50 games or so to show he can sustain. I am sure that his ST has improved his standing in the organization just not enough to be handed an MLB job yet.
I previously advocated that the Nats keep Lannan for insurance and a potential spot in their rotation next year if the FA's leave. It appears that $5 mil is too expensive for a pitcher the org wouldn't trust in a key spot in any event so they are looking for a new home for him.
This is not an unreasonable approach because you can back fill the back end of your rotation in many ways while leaving the $5 mil on the table to allocate to different areas.
Apologies to those of you who had audio troubles early in the show. Fortunately, we recorded the entire episode and the sound came in loud and clear. We'll post that on the site later this afternoon, so please check back for that.
jd the Nationals can release Lannan and it would only cost then about $1M or so. I think they will do that if they can't trade him without picking up some of his contract. Trade is the first option, but release needs to be considered...
I think some people are also forgetting that Corey Brown got rather hot at the end of his AAA stint last year. I looked him up on fangraphs and from 7/15 until 9/2 he had a .302/.375/.465 with 5 homeruns. I would definitely say if he starts out with a similar line and whatever CF platoon we have is struggling he should get recalled pretty quickly.
I would say his slash line obviously isn't something he would do at the major league level but if you knock everything down 30 to 35 points per category to make up for the competition level a guy hitting roughly .270/.340/.430 and playing solid D with a good arm and above average speed is nothing to sneeze at.
am I doing something wrong, or is the video not up yet?
Thank you for answering my question, Mark, about Pudge.
My favorite part of the whole thing was when you said to Amanda, "See you next week"!
Maybe someday I'll have one of mine answered. Will keep grinding 'em out. :-)
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