Friday, July 30, 2010

Dunn trade talk

Updated at 4:44 p.m.

The internet may explode at some point today from too many "updates" on Adam Dunn's status with the Nationals. Really, I've never seen anything quite like this, especially because as of this moment, nothing has happened.

Here's what we do know: The White Sox have acquired right-hander Edwin Jackson from the Diamondbacks for pitchers Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg. The White Sox have had very strong interest in Dunn all along. The Nationals have had some interest in Jackson.

So a subsequent trade of Dunn to Chicago in exchange for Jackson seems like an obvious conclusion to all this. But before you get too lathered up about it, this deal hasn't been made yet and it very well might not be made ever.

First off, I would be stunned -- stunned -- if Mike Rizzo traded Adam Dunn straight-up for Edwin Jackson. That doesn't fit with his oft-repeated mantra that he would have to be "blown away" with an offer in order to trade Dunn. It's entirely possible Jackson would be part of a package coming to Washington in exchange for Dunn, but I really can't see him being the only player involved. A young position player would have to be included.

Second, the White Sox have been trying to bolster their rotation in addition to their lineup for the stretch run, and thus could keep Jackson. I don't think that's out of the question.

Third, I know there's been a lot written out there suggesting the Nats either have to sign Dunn to an extension or trade him by tomorrow afternoon, but I don't believe it's that black-and-white. Mike Rizzo doesn't have to do anything in the next two days. I can certainly see Dunn finishing out the season, declaring free agency and then testing the market this winter to see what's out there. There's nothing stopping the Nats from re-signing him at that point.

I'll certainly keep monitoring all of these talks and report anything that truly needs to be reported. Please feel free to use the comments section here to discuss all things trade-deadline-related.

In the meantime, some actual news to report: The Nationals have recalled left-handed Atahualpa Severino from Class AAA Syracuse to take the bullpen spot vacated by Matt Capps. Severino, 25, was 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 40 appearances at Syracuse and is a very intriguing pitcher who can get both left-handed and right-handed hitters out.

UPDATE AT 4:45 P.M. -- Dunn held court for a few minutes inside the Nationals' clubhouse before batting practice this afternoon and pretty much acknowledged he has no idea what's going to happen to him. He put the odds of a trade at "50-50," though he wasn't basing that on any hard information he's received.

Dunn's frustrated by all the talk that's out there, but he doesn't stress over it because he's been through this rodeo before and as he pointed out: "My options are awesome. You can't have better options than what I have." In other words, either he stays with a Nats club he wants to stay with, or he spends two months in a pennant race.

One other key point: I asked Dunn if nothing happens in the next two days -- if he's neither traded nor signed to an extension -- would that change the way he approached any long-term contract talks this winter. "I would think if nothing's happened by now as far as contract stuff, they'll continue working on it," he said. "It might happen the first day of October. It might happen in the offseason. I don't know. Again, I wanted to get it done as early as possible and that hasn't worked out. It's not going to change anything."


Section 222 said...

Thanks for the dose of sanity Mark. Following the rumors on twitter is making my head spin. I should just turn it all off and wake up tomorrow and see what happened. But yes, Adam Dunn for Edwin Jackson straight up would be insane. Rizzo might not walk on water, but he's not insane.

Severino is an interesting addition to the pen. We now have three lefties, after starting the season with just one. It certainly seems like Burnett is being set up to be the 8th inning guy, or even to pitch the 9th with the right matchups.

David Lint said...

Jackson is a bloated contract that would only help Mike sign his own pink slip.

Thankfully, Tim Kurkjian went on 980 and said the Nats told him directly that they will not trade Dunn to Chicago for Jackson.

This was after Jackson had already been moved.

I think we're safe from that blunder.

Capitol Baseball said...

Not to mention the White Sox are proudly touting the trade to fans. Doesn't seem likely that they'd up and trade him without first reaching an agreement with Rizzo and Co.

Anonymous said...

Hmm maybe KW taking a page out of Rizzo's book ...

I think Mike Rizzo made it pretty clear that any trade involving Adam Dunn would have to include Gordon Beckham AND Carlos Quentin.

It still seems more likely that Josh Willingham would be next as he is more marketable since he isn't a rental.

I still think they re-up Dunn for 3 years with an option.

Anonymous said...

How about Jackson and Viciedo for Dunn?

DC Tom said...

Not to mention that if the White Sox trade Jackson, they will be even more thin at starting pitching. The fact that Hudson--one of their biggest trade chips--was shipped out for Jackson indicates to me that the White Sox might be done in this trade market.

Anonymous said...

What makes Severino a more attactive promotion than someone like Wilkie? At least on paper, Wilkie looks more intriguing

DC Tom said...

Though I will give Rizzo style points for apparently being in simultaneous deep discussions with the two teams -- White Sox and Twins -- that are neck-and-neck in the same race.

"Well, if you're not going to ofer Ramos, maybe I'll just add Capps to the Dunn trade with the White Sox, I heard they need a closer too."

Vito said...

Here I come a checking for info on Dunn and I get the latest and greatest. Thanks Mark and fellow comment posters for the up to the moment update. My gut tells me Dunn stays put with us.

Farid Rushdi said...


I love you, man, and I've never disagreed with a think I've ever read here.

Until now.

If the Nationals don't trade, and don't resign Dunn prior to the deadline, I have to beleive he's gone.

If they couldn't come to terms NOW--when he's part of the team--what strain of logic would conclude that in four of five months the team and the player would be able to agree on price?

Sure, if all the other teams shy away like they did in 2008, then yes, maybe something could get worked out.

But I doubt it.

And those two supplemental picks are just too far off to help this team who many think are close to contending.

Jordan Zimmermann is now three years out from his draft-day and he has yet to help the team.

Injuries. Bad scouting. Too many things to go wrong.

Rizzo must either trade him or sign him by Saturday. There is no third option.

But I still love 'ya.

David Lint said...

Anon at 2:44.

Wilkie didn't get call because he's not on 40 man.

It came down to that.

Anonymous said...


Any news on when and where Yuneski Maya may be pitching in the minors? Thanks

Anonymous said...

My guy tells me Rizzo stands firm on Dunn and makes some minor trades with Kennedy and/or Harris but the problem with that is I predict we will get some crap drasft picks when Dunn goes elsewhere in the offseason and both are the equivalent of the litany of pitchers who had arms problems and never pitch again.

While I would love to keep Dunn, I believe that Dunn for Jackson (who is a better pitcher than everyone on our staff right now except for Strasburg) plus one minor leaguer and some cash makes sense and Rizzo would rather get something rather than nothing (ie draft picks) for Dunn.

Finally Severino? Seriously, why add him for two weeks when he will be dropped for JZimm, why not add another pitcher and drop Nieves now!

Anonymous said...


I disagree; you think if we offer Dunn a 3 year deal for the money he wants next week he doesn't sign just because we are past the trade deadline?

I think that it's Rizzo's responsibility to maximize his options for the overall benefit of the team; he has to play this trade deadline opportunity to the max. If the best deal available is less attractive than signing a long term deal then he'll negotiate a long term deal. It's not often you own a commodity which is coveted by multiple teams; it's an opportunity to improve the team.

Anonymous said...

We need a starter for Sunday; I guess Balester is going down unless something wild happens on the trade front.

Matt said...

Ladson has Guzman going to the Rangers. Sounds like Rizzo is a busy busy man...

Anonymous said...

Guzzie traded for "prospects" to Rangers

Anonymous said...

Farid, Dunn isn't gone, Rizzo was quoted as telling Dunn's agent they would work out a deal in team's time without any deadline. A deal will be done ... in Rizzo's time frame not in Dunn's ...

Unless Pale Hose give up Beckham and Jackson or TB gives up Upton and Hellickson ...

More likely that Willigham gets traded I should think? He wouldn't be a "rental".

DC Tom said...

Anon 3:01, stating that Jackson "is a better pitcher than everyone on our staff right now except for Strasburg"

I don't agree; I would rather have both Livo and Olsen than Jackson. And maybe even J.D. Martin. We're talking about a guy (in Jackson) who over his career has walked 4 batters per 9 innings and who managed to have a WHIP of 0.80 *in a no-hitter* earlier this year. Not quite Daniel Cabrera, but not that far off either.

Plus Jackson doesn't fit the mold of the type of player that I think Rizzo should be looking for now: Will this player be a key cog on the next contending Nationals team? I think the time frame for that "contending team" decision is 2012-14.

The Ramos deal clearly fits that mold. Jackson doesn't fit that mold, he will be a free agent after next season. I think that if the White Sox had offered Gordon Beckham, Rizzo would have made that deal (and added Kennedy to boot), because Beckham fits that mold.

Keeping Dunn "kinda sorta" fits that mold -- he will only be 32-34 in 2012-14, so likely still a very productive hitter, but not entirely irreplaceable either.

Anonymous said...

What makes Severino a more attactive promotion than someone like Wilkie? At least on paper, Wilkie looks more intriguing

Yeah, kind of sucks doesn't it? Wilkie has been doing extremely well ... but not as well as Peralta and Slaten when they were down there ... no one has been the saves machine Peralta was down there ...

The difference? Besides having better stuff, being left-handed and already on the 40-man? He is almost still a prospect whereas Josh Wilkie is one of those "Rocky" stories ... he will undoubtedly get a September call-up though ...

Anonymous said...

Keeping Dunn "kinda sorta" fits that mold -- he will only be 32-34 in 2012-14, so likely still a very productive hitter, but not entirely irreplaceable either.

@DC Tom, Fair enough. I think I made it clear when I said that there is no way Rizzo would make any deal with the chisox unless Beckham were involved? Jackson is just KW's ruse to try to make Rizzo blink. Rizzo is like a lizard, he doesn't blink. He is probably a great poker player.

Per Olney/Goessling (agreeing) a Dunn for Jackson makes no sense when there is better to be found elsewhere ... like Hellickson ... UNLESS Beckham is there too.

I still assert that Jackson looks to be a better pitcher than most everyone on the staff at this point, short of Livan and Strasburg. Until Olsen proves he is truly recovered from the surgery I wouldn't bet him against Jackson ... and even then ... 162 strikeouts with 70 walks in 214 innings.

No one on the current roster/staff except for Livo has yet to do that and that's a fact. Until they do Jackson is must be considered a better choice. Add his All Star selection and its fait accompli.

Dave said...

Atahualpa Severino

Best Nats pitcher name since Jonathan Albaladejo.

JaneB said...

Nats website says Guz trade was for prospects. I've been watching trades for Nats prospects for a while now. Maybe it's doing us more good than I realize but so far, it seems like pure gambling to me, and that we aren't coming out on the winning side.

Richard said...

Bowden said on MLB radio this afternoon that Dunn's agent told him a week ago or so that the Nats haven't offered Dunn a deal of any kind, not one year or four years or anything in between. So, I guess the Nats' "Plan A" is to trade him. I wish the Nats would explain frankly to the Nats nation what the heck the plan is, even Plan A, Plan B, etc. Rizzo keeps saying Dunn is Hall of Fame material, and the fans want him on the team. Anyway, the talk on this blog is that a realistic option is for Dunn to sign an extension within the next 30 hours or so. Ain't gonna happen apparently.

HHover said...

Richard - this may be the kind of thing where the precise language really matters.

Does "offered a deal" means handing him a contract with the blanks filled in? Because I'm sure they haven't. But I'd be really surprised if they haven't had discussions with his agent about what he's looking for and what they're willing to offer. And if so, then they know how far apart they are, and whether it's a difference they can compromise in the next 30 hours.

Andrew said...

I would love to know what the Nats offered Grenske in their negotiations for a Dunn extension. Dunn deserves a raise but there are some that think Dunn isn't even worth Prince Fielder or Berkman money. I would take Dunn over the other 2 and believe $12 million to $15 million is his fair market value as a 1st baseman.

To not sign Dunn long-term leaves a hole too big to fill for 2011.

When the Nats went into the season with no RF and Kennedy at 2nd you saw how many losses were achieved by having those 2 holes.

I don't think the Nats can afford going in with holes in one outfield position, 2nd base as well as 1st base.

With the Ramos trade, the Nats appear to have solved the hole at backup catcher for 2011 so if Rizzo can tie up Dunn long-term then they can concentrate on getting the right 2nd baseman here.

Anonymous said...

Pale Hose suddenly getting very desperate .. in case anyone is still interested ... this could actually happen just before game time ... have to see if Dunn is suddenly pulled just before?

RT @InsideTheSox: We don't have to win deals, KW said, we just have to get the guy we want, who fits here. #WhiteSox

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