Thursday, April 15, 2010

An encouraging 4-5

Photo by Mark Zuckerman / NATS INSIDER
Matt Capps and Ivan Rodriguez celebrate after securing the Nats' 7-5 win.
PHILADELPHIA -- Admit it, if someone said two weeks ago the Nationals would open the season 4-5 (with six of those games coming against the Phillies) you would have jumped for joy.

They'd never fully admit it, but there are probably people inside the Nationals' clubhouse who felt the same way, knowing what a daunting path they faced in the season's opening stanza.

Three at home against the Phillies. Three on the road in New York. And then three more on the road at Philadelphia. Throw in the fact they've gotten one quality start from their rotation, own a collective 7.04 ERA, a .233 team batting average and have been outscored 63-40.

Doesn't 4-5 sound pretty good right about now?

"It's encouraging, because I don't think we've played that good of baseball," manager Jim Riggleman said following today's dramatic 7-5 win at Citizens Bank Park. "I think we've played hard. I think we've played with great effort and intensity. But as far as getting the combination of pitching and hitting, we've done that only a couple of times. But we've got four wins. I think we've got to look at that as a good thing for us, because we really haven't gotten out of the blocks yet."

Today's victory -- a tense, 3-hour, 27-minute affair with several twists and turns -- might have been as impressive a win as Washington will pull off all season.

It featured solid work from Scott Olsen, who in his season debut had allowed one run on three hits entering the sixth before fading. It's hard to believe that only three weeks ago, the left-hander looked hopeless, unable to throw a baseball more than 86 mph and unable to retire big-league hitters. Slowly but surely, he has progressed to the point where today he could twice strike out Chase Utley, including once on a 92-mph fastball.

"It's been [getting better] since day one of spring training," Olsen said. "Building up pitches and building up arm strength. It's all supposed to culminate in the regular season. Now I'm 100 percent, ready to go. Now we just ride it out and hopefully stay consistent through the rest of the year."

This game also featured a trio of clutch hits from Adam Dunn (solo homer in the eighth), Ryan Zimmerman (pinch-hit, two-run homer in the eighth) and Ivan Rodriguez (two-out, two-run single in the ninth).

"It's nice to actually get in and be a part of something," said Zimmerman, who had been out of the lineup four straight games with a tight left hamstring. "It's not fun to sit there and watch your teammates go out there and battle and go through a couple tough games and not be able to contribute. To be able to go out there and get a big hit, it was fun."

And how did that leg feel trotting around the bases?

"I could have ran 100 mph right there," Zimmerman said.

Let's also not ignore Matt Capps' five-out save, the first of his career. Yes, the Nats' closer did serve up a solo homer to Shane Victorino to open the ninth, but he also retired Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth (all representing the tying run) to finish it off and put an exclamation point on a well-earned victory.

"You want to play against the best, and you want to compete against the best," said Capps, who is now 4-for-4 in save opportunities.

The Nats can say they've competed against the best the National League has to offer, six times in a span of 11 days. They went 2-4 against the Phillies, and honestly, there's no shame in that.

There's also no shame in going 3-3 on a road trip to New York and Philadelphia, not when you're coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons and are fielding a 25-man roster that doesn't stack up in the talent department with plenty of opponents.

Perhaps the best sign is that the Nationals, while encouraged to be one game under .500 at this point, are by no means content with that record.

"We let a couple slip away that we probably should have won," Dunn said. "But any time you play .500 on the road, that's kind of the goal. Hopefully we can take care of teams at home that we're supposed to take care of."

The Nats survived Round One of their season-long boxing match, and they may not face a tougher stretch of games all year. Now we find out if they can hold up over the long haul and actually distinguish themselves from some other competition.

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

One quality start?
I thought that the criterion was either 2 ER in 5 innings, or 3 in 6. Olson gave us 1 ER in 5, then ran out of gas. I would award him a QS along with Livo.

Sec3mysofa said...

8:35 Anon, it's six innings.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_start

TBC said...

Three ER or less in 6 IP is the definition of a quality start. 2 ER in 5 IP is good, but it's not a quality start.

Mr. Doggett said...

Mark, don't forget that today's comeback victory is even more impressive after suffering that humiliation last night. One can already tell that this team has character...something that past Nats teams have seemingly lacked.

Wally said...

I have seen a difference in them this year, which is smarter play. Not quite all the way to smart yet, but smarter than last year. While they also appear to be playing better defense, more or less, I am referring to smarter defense. Taking an out at first instead of a ridiculous attempt to get a lead runner that results in no one out and everyone advancing. When a pitcher wants to sacrifice, let him sacrifice and get the out instead of pitching too cute, hoping for a strikeout and walking him instead. Also avoiding stupid baserunning mistakes. This helps avoid turning a bad situation into an insurmountable one, and gives them a chance to hang around in case the tide changes, like today. Maybe this is due to Riggleman or maybe it is due to some of these vets like Pudge and Kennedy, or some combination. I hope that it continues, because when their pitching starts to show some reversion to the mean, they have a chance to roll off some wins.

Almost makes you believe in this sabermetrics stuff.

Suicide Squeeze said...

I think we should recognize the positive role Riggleman has played. Like everyone else, I raised an eyebrow at times in Spring Training, but there's no question in my mind that this Nats manager has gotten MORE out of the team than his predecessor, who seemed to make the team less than its sum total. There's always a slew of reasons, of course, why a team does or does not perform, but if you slam a manager when the team underperforms, than he should be praised when they over perform.

Anonymous said...

Mark,

What do you know about this?

Washington Nationals placed RHP Garrett Mock on the 15-Day disabled list retroactive to April 11, 2010. Cervical spine injury.

Anonymous said...

Aeoliano/Periculum,
Before posting the same question around here, NJ and elsewhere, why don't you spend a few minutes to read the posts they've already written on the subject. Your commenting frequency leads me to believe you have the time to scan the home page for at least 10 seconds.

Andrew said...

I like the 4-5 record and hate the team stats. Isn't that called winning ugly????????

Andrew said...

Mark Zuckerman said... Admit it, if someone said two weeks ago the Nationals would open the season 4-5 (with six of those games coming against the Phillies) you would have jumped for joy.

I admit I have no problem with it.

Also, a team that stays on a 4-5 pace will end up with 72 Wins 90 Losses which is not far off from the expert picks.

Matt said...

Suicide Squeeze -- I definitely agree with you. I think it goes beyond a new mentality for the team -- he's also made a number of in-game moves which have really paid off. I haven't been keeping an exhaustive list, but off the top of my head, tonight, he brought in Matt Capps in for 1.2, sent out a decoy for Capps so that IRod got pitched to, brought in a less-than-100% Zimm to pinch hit, and called for a sac bunt from Desmond which ultimately lead to a run. On Sunday in New York, he brout in a number of defensive replacements (including Willie Harris to make the game saving catch). I'm sure there's more. Maybe it's just a lucky run, but however it's happening it sure seems to be working...

Anonymous said...

"Your commenting frequency leads me to believe you have the time to scan the home page for at least 10 seconds."

Love how anonymous posters love to excoriate others for things they are likely guilty of. How many anonymous imbeciles like the one above does it take to screw in a light bulb? 10. One to hold the bulb and nine to rotate the ladder.

Leslie said...

Of course Andrew,
I have no problem with it, too...
I know it is not easy, but Nats will definitely getting better no doubt. Let us wait and see...

Anonymous said...

I'll take it. Things won't always look this encouraging, but I think we've got ourselves a major league. I wasn't so sure a couple of days ago.

natsfan1a said...

On the defense front, I'm glad the Harris/Guzman misplay didn't come back to bite them in the...well, you know. But other than that, it was pretty clean, yes, and nice to see the pitching and offense show up at the same time. I'll definitely take the road trip outcome. :-)

On another note, I was happy to see that the Astros won as well. I felt bad for their fans, because we know how that feels, and we know what all the media gurus must have been saying...

TBC said...

I like the 4-5 record and hate the team stats. Isn't that called winning ugly????????

I'll take winning ugly over losing pretty any day of the week.

Tcostant said...

Good writtens Philly - happy we won't see you for a while!

Andrew said...

TBC - Absolutely! It's all about the W's!!!!

Traveler8 said...

@Tcostant: "Good writtens Philly" seems like a nice Malapropism to compliment Mark on his strong evaluation on the season to date, and as well as getting over the first big Philadelphia bump! Yes, and back home to Brewers, Rocks, and Dodgers.

Anonymous3MySofa said...

As opposed to "well-ridden fillies"?

Sec3MyAnonymous said...

Riggleman "sent out a decoy for Capps so that IRod got pitched to"-- I don't think he was bluffing, I think he was praying hard for Rodriguez to get a hit. You can't let Capps hit there, even if he is .250 lifetime. Pudge's 2 RBI were huge, as we saw.

Positively Half St. said...

I have said a couple of times since Spring Training that I think we are due a year in which the Nats have the luck of a record better than the stat models would predict, because they have been on the bad luck end the last several.

The Nats have a run-differential only slightly better than the 1-8 Astros and the 1-9 Orioles (oy). They will have to improve, or their record is very likely to sag as they revert to the mean (of what a record would be with that kind of play). We just need to keep the optimistic thought that they are not yet playing to even their modest abilities, and perhaps will even the run differential some, too.

K.D. said...

By the way, how about "one of the worst moves this off-season", that hobbled, gray-beard Pudge Rodriguez. Hope he keeps it up and makes the media (not you Mark) eat their words, and give him a little credit (and not just because he is over 30). Also, loved Olsen's fire out on the mound, he was on a mission.

Mark Zuckerman said...

Sec3MyAnonymous: Riggleman acknowledged postgame that he would not have pinch-hit for Capps no matter what. During the Pudge AB, Capps was down in the batting cage taking some practice hacks. Said it was the most nervous he'd been in baseball in a long time.

natsfan1a said...

K.D., good point re. Olsen. He went a little F-Rod after the RBI hit, and he looked to have carried that fire off the mound with him as well. I liked seeing him front and center next to Riggleman once he'd pulled himself together. On a related note, Dibble commented that Zimm had barked back at some Phoolies Phans who were riding Olsen after he was pulled. I seem to recall a similar story related to Lannan's ejection in his first start (if memory serves, Schneider was the barker in that case).

natsfan1a said...

Hey, I just realized - the Mets are all alone in the cellar at present. :-)

SpringfieldFan said...

"Mark Zuckerman said...

Sec3MyAnonymous: Riggleman acknowledged postgame that he would not have pinch-hit for Capps no matter what. During the Pudge AB, Capps was down in the batting cage taking some practice hacks. Said it was the most nervous he'd been in baseball in a long time."

That is AWESOME.

Carl in 309 said...

Shifting gears, today the NYTimes reported that they will start posting baseball stats that reflect part of the sabermetrics craze. See http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/16/viewing-baseball-through-a-prism-of-the-numbers/. Though I can't imagine not looking for traditional ERA, RBI, batting average, etc., stats, I'm attracted to this representation of "value" in baseball (I count myself among the fans of Michael Lewis' Moneyball). Curious about Mark's and fellow readers viewpoint in this regard.

Interesting to note that Nats own Adam Dunn makes one of the NYTimes-published lists for the 2009 season: 9th on their list "batting runs".

Big Oil said...

I felt compelled to comment and have to agree with SpringfieldFan -- very very cool account Mark.

The Great Unwashed said...

Here's one other thing to add about Riggleman's game management that I think is positive for this team: the number of steals. We all know Nyjer will steal because that's his game. But when Willingham, Harris, and Pudge have steals too, it's definitely a step in the right direction. It's become a legitimate threat, especially when the Nats had taken the lead late in yesterday's game. I liked Manny, but was frustrated with his game calling at times because he rarely used the running game. It's nice to see it happening now. Imagine what this team could be if they made even modest improvements, such as raising their collective batting average to .260 and lowering their overall ERA from 7.00 to 5.00. I'm not expecting miracles, but it's doable.

PANatsFan said...

Mark, one quibble:

They played 6 road games against the Phillies.

NatsNut said...

@Mr. Dogget, re: "One can already tell that this team has character...something that past Nats teams have seemingly lacked."

It's a good point, but I'd have to argue that our 2007 team was the scrappiest, most character-filled team I've seen yet. Projected to lose 120, they only lost 89, bumped the Marlins down to the cellar, and walked away with 4th in the NL East.

If this team even approaches the character of that team, I'll be very happy NatsNut.

Sunderland said...

Riggleman sending a decoy out to the on deck circle didn't fool anyone, especially Charlie Manuel. The bases were loaded, that's why Pudge was being pitched to. Capps was pitching the 9th, everyone knew that.

And leaving Olsen in to face the righty Castro in the 6th was a tough decision. If Olsen was only 10 - 12 pitches into that inning, maybe. But he was 20+ pitches into that inning, Clippard was ready, leaving Olsen in was a gutsy call by Riggleman, and it bit him.

But this is a multi-faceted decision, and I'm not gonna rip Riggleman over it. Showing confidence in Olsen, letting the other starters know we wants to give them full opportunity to succeed, that's the upside to this decision.

That's why managing for the long haul is tough. To just win yesterday, like it was a game 7, he calls on Clippard for sure.

And yes, 4 -5 right now is great.
Winning ugly is still winning.
And any day is a good day when the Mets are the bottom dwellers.

natsfan1a said...

It's easier to put on a running game when you have runners. Just saying...

David said...

@carl in 309,

if you're interested in Sabermetrics, look at how much worse the team's OPS for and against are overall compared to with RISP

OutsideTheLaw said...

Rigg's move yesterday in the 9th was nice too. Tavares PR for Willingham, steals second to get into scoring position, scores on IRod single. Then swaps Harris from right to left for Tavares to play right on D in bottom of 9th. Basic stuff, but completely on top of every move.

Matt said...

@Sunderland: It was 2nd and 3rd. First was open for the free pass.

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