 |
US Presswire photo Adam LaRoche could have several suitors if he hits the open market. |
So it should be a no-brainer for the two sides to come together and work out a new contract before the veteran first baseman ever hits the open market, right?
Sadly, it's never that simple.
LaRoche, coming off the best season of his career, is going to want to be fairly rewarded for his performance. And the Nationals, trying to win now but not wanting to hamstring themselves down the road, aren't going to want to commit too much money or too many years to a mid-30s slugger whose numbers may start to wane.
Throw in a handful of other clubs potentially interested in LaRoche, and it's not difficult to envision a scenario where this could drag on longer than the Nationals would prefer.
First, though, a refresher course on the free agency procedure and timeline...
As soon as the World Series ends, all eligible players become free agents. They then have a five-day window to negotiate exclusively with their former club. On the sixth day, they're free to talk to any team in the majors.
So, if the Nationals want to lock up LaRoche before he ever gets a chance to formally negotiate with anyone else, they'll have to strike a deal within five days after completion of the Fall Classic.
How much is he likely to command? Well, it's an incredibly weak market for first basemen, with LaRoche topping a list that will also include Carlos Pena, Carlos Lee, James Loney and possibly Lance Berkman (if he doesn't retire). Not a stellar class, certainly not on par with last winter's crop that featured Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and more.
So LaRoche's asking price could get a bump given the lack of alternatives out there. He made $8 million this season and has a $10 million mutual option for 2013 (which he'll decline), so you've got to assume he'll be seeking more than $10 million per year in his new deal.
Would two years and $22 million get it done? Probably not. LaRoche is going to want a third guaranteed year, which could raise the total price to $33 million or more.
Would the Nationals guarantee three years to a player who would turn 36 a couple of weeks after the contract expires? Maybe, but they're likely first to propose two guaranteed years with a third-year option. Maybe two years and $24 million, with a $13 million option for 2015.
That might get it done, though LaRoche's ultimate decision may have less to do with dollars and more to do with his level of comfort and desire to win. He clearly enjoyed this season in Washington, loves the group of players inside that clubhouse and believes this franchise has a chance to win the World Series next year and beyond.
Can any other potential suitor offer the same or more? Perhaps.
The three clubs most likely to be in the market for a veteran first baseman this winter are the Red Sox, Rangers and Orioles. Obviously, the Rangers will go into 2013 believing they can make another run at an elusive World Series title. The Orioles will hope to return to the playoffs after their surprising run this season. And the Red Sox, though a mess at the moment, have the resources to completely overhaul their roster in a hurry and thrust themselves back into the picture.
There's still a strong argument to be made, though, that the Nationals still offer LaRoche the best chance to win right now. And it's safe to assume Washington remains LaRoche's first choice.
Which means the Nationals could hold most of the cards in this negotiation, sensing LaRoche might be willing to take a small discount to stay here. Remember, he's not represented by Scott Boras, who would insist on his client accepting the most lucrative offer. (Or, at the very least, convince the Nats to bid against themselves and raise the price tag.) He's represented by Mike Milchin of SFX, a successful but low-key agent who arguably has only one higher-profile client than LaRoche: Justin Verlander.
In the end, here's what we can say with some degree of certainty: LaRoche wants to remain a National. The Nationals want LaRoche to remain a National.
Now it's just a matter of the two sides figuring out how to make that happen in a manner that leaves each satisfied.
186 comments:
I can only hope that LaRoche will look at intangibles like how his son was accepted in the clubhouse. You don't see that type of thing in every clubhouse and it might not be huge but it has to be a part of his decision.
I am all for 3 years although I think we all would love to see 2. It just won't happen because that 3rd year gives him even more security and at his age, this is his last big payday. The reality is that in 2015 our bench might include more of Werth/LaRoche and less of the youngsters. I am not suggesting that these guys will not be positives for our club in 3 years. I am suggesting that the young guys will have worked their way into the lineup.
I watched enough of game seven to go to bed happy with the results. Giants had the bases loaded 5 different times in their big innings. I think 11 men batted when they scored 5. Not sure if I was enjoying it because I had not watched baseball in a week or so or if it was because the Cards were going down.
Go Nats!! 2013!!!
Go Nats!! Offseason!!
OK, I can watch baseball again. Seeing the Cards just made me sick to my stomach.
On topic: Ryan Zimmerman will be with us three years from now. To me, the LaRoche decision comes down to how much you want to wager that Zim will be a thirdbaseman three years from now.
I think if ALR is our 1st baseman then Ryan can be at 3rd for that period. As far as I can tell, Ryan's only problem is his throwing motion. ARL can take care of his wild throws more than anyone else in the league.
Since we are in win-now mode, giving ALR what he seeks makes sense to me because 1) part of the solution in 2012 so let us not make it a problem by putting someone else at 1B, 2)i think it is lot easier to trade away aging veterans with respectable deals than aging veterans with gargantuan contracts (read ARod), and 3) taking that left-handed bat from the lineup and replacing it with another righty. Having said that, I hope ALR is not seeking 3 years, $40 million or more. let's hope we can work out something reasonable for both sides.
I think we should try to do to two guaranteed years with third year becoming player option (or a guaranteed third year) if the player plays in certain number of games and ends up with certain number of votes for MVP or some other incentives.
… it is safe to argue that the Nats lost the playoffs because of their inability to hit in the clutch. That included LaRoche, but among all the bats he represents one of the team's best and most dependable. Therefore, the team needs to sign him and swallow what they might see as an overly player-weighted contract.
Take it Easy, Nats!
It's not really about the two sides just figuring out how to make it happen. It's a tough call whether to ink ALR. The Nats can't stash Zim as the DH if he can't play 3B in a year or so -- which is a real possibility. 1B may be where Zim plays. ALR is likely looking at a $35M+ deal -- are the Nats going to fork that over for a guy in his 30s who has had trouble staying on the field, especially when it likely means that Morse or Moore likely has to get moved? I love ALR, but I don't see this working.
ALR should have been an allstar in 2012. He just makes everything he does look easy and he makes everything everyone else does look good. How much does he want to change teams again? What does he think the Nats chances are of staying in the playoff picture? You have got to think he leans towards staying here. As to this year's playoffs -- the all star game directly affected the world series. Verlander lost home field advantage for himself and Cain was the winning pitcher -- several other Giants contributed to the win for the NL. I cannot imagine a scenario where the two events are more connected. Say what you will about the allstar game determining home field advantage -- it certainly does make that game meaningful. Those who are involved in 2013 will be taking note of it. For those of you who are not on twitter -- Mark predicted that the World Series would be Giants/Tigers this year. His other predictions leading up to it were off, but the end result was there. I don't even remember who I predicted, but I am guessing I was not correct.
I don't understand why Zimm can't play 3rd base one or three years from now. He has the fourth most PA among 3B since his debut in 2006 (not counting the brief appearance in 2005).
Having ALR at first will only help it further.
LaRoche has kids in school and a part of the community for most of the year. LaRoche has different needs than a young player with no family which is why he wants a long-term deal and he knows it is probably now or never.
Would he take a 2 year deal with a 1 year option or does it have to be at least 3 years. At some point you have to wonder if 2012 was the best he has and the Nats did have a 2011 as a throw away year with him.
Personally I think a 2 year deal with an option would be a good case for the Nats but would it be good enough for Adam.
Lots and lots and lots of Zim to first base comments. It's not a foregone conclusion. Zim is still an elite third baseman whose value is in his offensive production at 3b as well as his gold glove caliber defense. At 1b his offensive value goes down, he's not a typical 1b slugger, which is what you want out of that position...not to mention he is right handed. Zim has plenty of good (All Star caliber) years at 3b left, I wouldn't put much stock into that "inevitable" move to first base.
Me, too. I did watch parts of games in real time, though, after the Giants started staving off elimination. Seeing the Cards lose helped a lot as far as my own comeback. I feel like I owe the Giants a gift basket or something. :-)
Constant Reader said...
OK, I can watch baseball again. Seeing the Cards just made me sick to my stomach.
October 23, 2012 7:26 AM
Long term contracts have a habit of stifeling the career progression of players in the farm system, and ultimately limiting on-field decisions.
I like ALR and the way he brings character and his big bat to the team.
But more than a 1 year contract, with an option for the next year would seem to be the limit.
Anything more than that, and the Nats fall into the competitive trap that the majority of teams find themselves in after signing big long-term contracts.
If ALR can find something more lucrative than that he should grab it, and the Nats should let him do it.
On topic, the rest of y'all can speculate - I'll leave the decision and negotiations to the FO and the real GM. That said, would love to have Adam stay. On a related note, what are Drake's demands? Whatever they are, I think we should meet 'em. :-)
I can see the two-years-plus-option variant working out for both sides. Hope the can get it done in the home-team window.
Picking up from the last thread, regarding the hideous announcing on Fox: if you have a DVR and the At-Bat app, you can delay your Fox picture to sync up with either the SF or Detroit radio feeds. Both teams have quite excellent radio teams: Jon Miller for San Fran; I don't know the names of the Detroit crew.
I believe we'll find out how soon a to Zimmerman to 1B is when he has his inevitable shoulder surgery
Have to go for LaRoche, even if it's three years. No brainer. You do what it takes to get to the postseason and WS series this year and next. (Think of the millions that were lost by not getting to the WS this year). If he's hampering the development of some superstar in 2015 you eat part of his salary and move him. You DO NOT entrust 1B to a right-handed rookie (Moore) or an often-injured Morse (also right-handed).
As for RZ, he has shown he will do whatever it takes to play a quality 3B, plus offense. I don't think we will see him tumbling over home plate until Game 7. Older and wiser.
Agree, the Detroit guys are excellent (I also don't remember their names.) The Detroit TV crew is also good, though you won't have them, of course.
I agree w/ NatsJack, with the addendum that the 3rd year option should vest if he plays 270 games the first two years. Much as I like Morse, I'd rather trade him, or let him walk as a FA, in order to break the "logjam" for younger players. He'll be two years younger than LaRoche (I think) and therefore will have more value if traded.
Failing my first choice, I'd give LaRoche his three-year deal (guaranteed, no option). There is always a market for aging $12MM/year LH hitters (e.g., Berkman) if it becomes necessary to move him. He's much too valuable to lose right now, for defense, LH bat (unless you see Skole starting at 1B in 2015, where is the next LH hitter going to come from?) and clubhouse presence.
Last possibility -- offer him a way over-priced one-year deal ($20MM?) or two-year deal ($30MM?). Something that allows him to envision another big payday.
I think one of the Detroit radio guys is Frank Beckman. (Depressing, because he was in Detroit radio 40 years ago when I was.)
I hope they can work it out so he comes back. ALR!!!
We don't get as far as we did without ALR. I hope that there's a deal to be had so we make everyone happy. Including Drake.
And now that the Cards are done, I can probably watch again. In Chris Cilizza's wrap up of the debate winners and loser from last night, the final loser was...The Cardinals. "Why couldn't they have laid down like that for game 5?" My question exactly.
BTW, Lombardozzi = Marco Scutaro. Handy guy to have around.
marco-scutaro-is-still-a-game-of-pepper
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/marco-scutaro-is-still-a-game-of-pepper/
OK, since someone mentioned RZim's surgery, maybe one of the NI'ers with some "inside" knowledge can fill me in. What actually happens to fan mail? For example, if I were to send him a get-well card after his surgery (or send Dru a "looking forward to seeing you in Viera" card) will the intended recipient even know it was sent?
I'm sure the front office goes through the mail first and removes the threats, the pleas (come to my son's t-ball game) and the junk (thank, PCH, we already knew that). But after Jayson broke his wrist, did someone at least email him "hey, Jayson, you got 148 get-well cards from Nats fans and 14 'you deserved it' cards from Zip Codes beginning with 190"? Or does it vary by in- or off-season, or by player?
ArVAFan
I thoroughly enjoyed the Cardinals choke job last night. They looked like they were panicking out there. I guess they were feeling the pressure. Looks like the Giants can smell blood. Yep, the Cardinals definitely had that bright-eyed, deer-in-the-headlights look. [Previous four sentences all from things the Cardinals said about the Nationals] The Cardinals were going the wrong way on ground balls, failing to pick up the ball in the outfield, unable to turn a routine 6-4-3 GIDP. Chirp about the Nationals, eh? Even if you see that, you don't run your opponents down like that. Lest you go up 3-1 in the next series and then choke away the lead and in the final game fold like, well, a house of Cards. Karma can be a stone cold [ ], Cardinals.
#Natsenfreude
On Adam LaRoche, I will add a couple of notes. The Nationals will offer to pick up the option, which LaRoche will decline. That means the Nats don't owe LaRoche a buyout. The Nationals will also tender LaRoche a $13.3 million contract, which LaRoche will also decline (if he were to accept, the Nationals would happily take a one year overpay to preserve their options down the road). The amount is tied to the new CBA; it garners the Nationals a supplemental draft pick if LaRoche signs somewhere else. It's a bit higher than was expected (around $11.5-12 million) but not enough to change the equation.
Once that dance is done, then the dickering really begins. They've probably mutually talked through those steps already. And from that point I think Mark has it right: the Nats will offer a 2+ option. I'd guess 2/$22 with a $13 million option/$4 million buyout. That way Adam is guaranteed at least $13 million/year if he only stays two years.
c715e5d6-9d22-11e1-a89a-000f20980440 said...
OK, since someone mentioned RZim's surgery, maybe one of the NI'ers with some "inside" knowledge can fill me in. What actually happens to fan mail? For example, if I were to send him a get-well card after his surgery (or send Dru a "looking forward to seeing you in Viera" card) will the intended recipient even know it was sent?
Maybe, maybe not. Why not just cut out the middle man and tweet them instead? Storen's on Twitter, even has his handle on his glove. Zimmerman's not AFAIK, but his fiancee is. Morse tweets, Desi tweets, Espi tweets (or used to, anyway), Harper's on-and-off relationship with Twitter is on again. Get with the times, dude. Geez, next you'll be asking if your letters to Santa ever get there.
I'd like to see ALR stick around, and a 2-yr contract plus 3d year option could work. It will depend, tho, on what the Nats are willing to pay for the first 2 years, and how the third year is structured (opt out payment, whose option, etc).
Otherwise, there's a good chance that ALR risks losing $5-10M compared to a guaranteed 3-yr contract with another club. That's a lot to expect him to leave on the table.
Wait a minute - Feel, are you saying after 66 years of writing Santa, he is not getting those missives?? Wow, no wonder I never got that horse.
I am not going to send messages unless its through the US Mail. I can barely get on this computer. When my step-daughter wants to text, she texts my son who then calls me with her request. I am a true cro-mag and will never get with the times thank you very much.
Speaking of Natsenfreude (or, technically, just plain freude), loved the moment where Scutaro tipped back his head and let raindrops fall into his mouth during a pause when SFO was up big late in the game. Loved the childlike joy of his drinking in the moment, both literally and figuratively.
I'm slightly baffled by all of the people who think Zimmerman is going to turn into a decrepit old man by the age of 30. Zimmerman has some throwing problems but he they were magnified this season by his shoulder injury. Zim just turned 28 in September. Even if you sign Laroche to a 3 year deal you are looking at Zimmerman playing his age 28, 29 and 30 season at 3rd base and THEN having to move him to first. I don't see that as being a major issue.
Ideally you give Laroche a 2 year deal worth around $24 or 25 mil with a 3rd year vesting option. If he performs at a high level the first 2 seasons his option vest for another $12 or 13 mil in the 3rd season. If he doesn't the option goes away.
There is not enough room on this roster for Werth, LaRoche and Morse. Pick any two - but Werth isn't going anywhere.
think these numbers seem low. If he really could be had for even 3 years / $33M; do it now. I really believe that he will command between $40M and $45M on the market and I would also add Pittsburg into the mix.
On ALR, Two years guaranteed $23 Mill with third year option $13 million (guaranteed on GP or trade) with a high buyout $3-5 Million works. It should give him comfort but preserve some flexibility for Nats.
Which then allows them to address pitching. 1st - Extend JZimm and then since the team was so incredibly lucky with the health of its rotation they should consider going after a big dog. Look at the Braves - a few years ago they had a lot of good young talent - but players get hurt (Beachy etc) and regress (Jurgens)so having a another top SP is just prudent. Maybe a Greinke at 3 yrs $67 mill word work. He could then get another big payday but have a chance to win it all. And another key is he does not cost any compensation.
We then let Ejax walk after tendering him and then have extra draft $$$.
The market for ALR is going to set by the team foolish and/or desperate enough to overpay the most on $$$ and years.
Esp. in terms of years, that's more likely to be an AL than an NL team (all 3 teams Mark listed are AL teams)--a 3d year is less risky for a team that can count on getting some value out of him as a DH.
On Greinke--this is his chance for a big payday. 3 yrs/$67M ain't gonna happen--more money, more years.
I agree there too, no way Greinke signs any contract that is less than $100M total.
Mark writes...He's represented by Mike Milchin of SFX, a successful but low-key agent who arguably has only one higher-profile client than LaRoche: Justin Verlander.
Mark, not sure what you mean by a "low-key" agent as Milchin is one of the top agents at SFX and they rep Miguel Cabrera, Mariano Rivera and dozens of other star players and have 4 Nats like Jordan Zimmermann, Wilson Ramos, Tom Gorzelanny, and of course Adam LaRoche and many ex-Nats and most notably Alfonso Soriano who walked for that long-term deal with the Cubs.
SFX as a group will make sure Adam's wishes are met while being fair in the negotiations but certainly Adam wants a long-term deal with as many years as he can get.
You just know like I said a few months ago that there will be another team or 2 willing to overpay Adam LaRoche. There always seems to be other teams that are willing to do ridiculous things, look no further than Alfonso Soriano's contract.
SCNatsFan said...
There is not enough room on this roster for Werth, LaRoche and Morse.
Why not? There was enough room for all three this year. What has changed? And don't say "Tyler Moore needs playing time" because that means you're still thinking like a fan of a non-competitive team. Those days are gone. Good prospects, good rookies are going to find themselves blocked. They're going to be bench players, because there are experienced guys in front of them who can still play. The days of "playing the kids" because "they're the future" are gone. The future is now, and the guys who brought you there are still the guys you play. Get used to it, it's going to be this way for a long time.
Tcostant said...
BTW - If ALR does leave, how about signing Carlos Beltran to 1 or 2 year deal. Gives up flexabilty in the future for minor league call up and you get one of the best post season hitters of all time.
I'm just saying...
October 23, 2012 10:14 AM
How are you going to do that? Carlos Beltran is signed with the Cardinals through 2013.
45 mil....3 years.....all guaranteed
The future is now
Gonat said...
LaRoche has kids in school and a part of the community for most of the year. LaRoche has different needs than a young player with no family which is why he wants a long-term deal and he knows it is probably now or never.
Would he take a 2 year deal with a 1 year option or does it have to be at least 3 years. At some point you have to wonder if 2012 was the best he has and the Nats did have a 2011 as a throw away year with him.
Personally I think a 2 year deal with an option would be a good case for the Nats but would it be good enough for Adam.
October 23, 2012 8:32 AM
All good points but I have thought before it will take a 3 year deal to get ALR.
ALR turns 33 in a couple of weeks. Age is a factor and health is a factor. For continuity you want him. 2 years would be great for the team but I believe ALR won't take it unless there was a player type option for a 3rd year at the least.
Any word on Rendon?
Water23 said...
Isn't Beltran an OF? Not sure how good his defensive stats are in the OF or at 1B but I would think he is comparable to Morse.
October 23, 2012 10:31 AM
Not sure how Beltran is part of this discussion. As I said above, he is a Cardinal through 2013 unless they trade or DFA him.
Water23 said...
Any word on Rendon?
October 23, 2012 10:33 AM
Playing 3rd in the AFL for the Nats. Had another decent game last night going 1 for 4 and batting .233
Ghost you are correct, I deleted my comment. I really though he signed a one year deal last winter, but it was two. My mistake.
BigCat said...
45 mil....3 years.....all guaranteed
The future is now
October 23, 2012 10:31 AM
That's what I'm thinking but there is a but there, there is a very good chance this will turn out to be a bad contract for the Nats.
But, I think you have to do it. Keep the continuity and leadership.
FeelWood - Harper is not a CF; he may play there but he isn't one. Obviously he gets a corner spot; so does Werth. That leaves 1B for either LaRoche or Morse. Then you say but Perez/Goodwin will be there next year; then you have a guy on the bench making over 10M a year. Long range there isn't room and that has nothing to do with Moore and nothing to do with me believing we need to play rookies to see if they are any good; it has to do with too many similar players on the roster. If you sign ALR then trade Morse while his value is highest, which is now; if you truly believe Goodwin or Perez is close then sign a guy for a year to play there, there are plenty of god options not name Ankiel.
Tcostant, not a problem. I just wanted to get the facts right on Beltran.
oops good options shouldn't use God when referring to Ankiel except Oh God no
So Rendon hasn't made that switch to 2B that a lot of people kept chattering about it?
Whodathunkit...
A two-year contract would be great for the Nats. If it takes three years to keep him, then that's okay, as long as it doesn't include a no-trade clause. Letting LaRoche go would help a lot of pieces fall nicely into place, but it would weaken the team in 2013, and given this year's success, it isn't time to remove that important lefty bat and critical steadiness in the field. That said, if he finds a much better deal elsewhere, I wouldn't feel terrible having Morse, Moore, and Marrero in the mix at 1B and in the middle of the lineup. I also wonder if Lombardozzi could learn 1B, not to give him that job full-time (1B should be a power hitter) but to complete his qualifications as a utility player and late-inning defensive replacement like Adam Kennedy.
Wow, I just posted using a really old AOL account as my AIM identity, and check out what it calls me! I don't even wanna know what that code reveals about my past. Hey, why can't we log in with Twitter handles here?
SCNatsFan said...
FeelWood - Harper is not a CF; he may play there but he isn't one.
October 23, 2012 10:45 AM
The metrics disagree with you and so would Rizzo. Long-term you want Harper to go to RF and Werth to LF but having Harper in CF is a bonus until someone in the Minors rises to the top.
I prefer to log in with the god option.
This is worth repeating, so I will:
"I thoroughly enjoyed the Cardinals choke job last night. They looked like they were panicking out there. I guess they were feeling the pressure. Looks like the Giants can smell blood. Yep, the Cardinals definitely had that bright-eyed, deer-in-the-headlights look. [Previous four sentences all from things the Cardinals said about the Nationals] The Cardinals were going the wrong way on ground balls, failing to pick up the ball in the outfield, unable to turn a routine 6-4-3 GIDP. Chirp about the Nationals, eh? Even if you see that, you don't run your opponents down like that. Lest you go up 3-1 in the next series and then choke away the lead and in the final game fold like, well, a house of Cards. Karma can be a stone cold [ ], Cardinals."
Well stated, John C.
Just heard that Otani (18 yr old, 6' 4" with a 99 MPH fastball) decided to go the MLB route over JPL. He could be another nice young pitcher to develop and I believe he status allows him to be signed outside of the Int'l signing restrictions.
Yes....it was very good to see the Cards losing. I'm sure that Kozma is a nice guy and all that, but it was good to see him come back to earth. Also, that little second baseman. Both those guys killed us. And this really stings cause they had this thing wrapped up. Have a nice flight home Cards
SCNatsFan said...
FeelWood - Harper is not a CF; he may play there but he isn't one. Obviously he gets a corner spot; so does Werth. That leaves 1B for either LaRoche or Morse. If you sign ALR then trade Morse while his value is highest, which is now; if you truly believe Goodwin or Perez is close then sign a guy for a year to play there, there are plenty of god options not name Ankiel.
Why is Harper not a CF? He was fine in CF this year, he should be better there next year. Morse is under contract for 2013, so no decision needs to be made on him now. What to do long-term with Morse will depend (a) on whether or not LaRoche is re-signed and (b) the performance Morse puts up in his walk year. Losing teams, developing teams, rebuilding teams - those are the teams that look to trade a player like Morse because his value is high. Winning teams don't do that. Winning teams will only trade someone like Morse if that's what it takes to fill a more pressing need elsewhere in the lineup. That could happen as part of a trade to get another stud starter, but it's unlikely. So the reality of the situation is that the best possible outcome for the Nats in 2013 would be to have all three of LaRoche, Morse and Werth. Goodwin and Perez are irrelevant. Whether they are ready or not, there is no need for them until 2014 - and even then, there may not be room if they decide to bring back Morse as a FA if he has a good 2013.
Water23, Otani has hit 99mph and is in the same raw High School phenom status as AJ Cole. I think he is outside of the JPL bid process but would be an Int'l Free Agent like Cespedes and Wei Yin Chen and certainly will be bid up as 5 teams have scouted him intensely.
numbers and letters AOL code guy: I think that some players read the mail and some players don't. I've sent a note to Justin Maxwell at the end of his playing days that got returned. I sent a note to Livan and I know he read it because when he was signing for fans at the end of the season, he saw my sign and referenced the note (happy me!). Morse and Clip respond to fans on twitter. I've written lots of get well notes to the players over time and never hear anything back, but also don't get mail returned. It seems worth a try. Unless it's Bryce or Stras, who probably get so much mail they have a handler reading it all.
Otani would nice but have to think he will be expensive; would rather spend the $ on someone proven like Shields or Price.
FeelWood I think Harper is playing CF because he has to; my point is you can't keep signing players that lock him into that position forever. OK for another year sure, but our long term solution has him as a corner OF.
Ghost, agreed on all points. And now that the Nats are drafting last and hopefully near the bottom for a few years, it is time to game the system. Otani is a 1st rounder that can be had for $$$. The Nats have had cash all along but the new system prevented them from spending more. It is worth taking a chance on him and plunking down the cash.
Well managed teams keep restocking so that they can trade for proven MLB stars or develop the next stud. And I do think the Nats are well managed.
Feel Wood said...
Why is Harper not a CF? He was fine in CF this year, he should be better there next year. Morse is under contract for 2013, so no decision needs to be made on him now. What to do long-term with Morse will depend (a) on whether or not LaRoche is re-signed and (b) the performance Morse puts up in his walk year. Winning teams don't do that. Winning teams will only trade someone like Morse if that's what it takes to fill a more pressing need elsewhere in the lineup. That could happen as part of a trade to get another stud starter, but it's Losing teams, developing teams, rebuilding teams - those are the teams that look to trade a player like Morse because his value is high. unlikely. So the reality of the situation is that the best possible outcome for the Nats in 2013 would be to have all three of LaRoche, Morse and Werth. Goodwin and Perez are irrelevant. Whether they are ready or not, there is no need for them until 2014 - and even then, there may not be room if they decide to bring back Morse as a FA if he has a good 2013.
October 23, 2012 11:09 AM
Feel wood, compliments on an excellent analysis. "Losing teams, developing teams, rebuilding teams - those are the teams that look to trade a player like Morse because his value is high."
If there wasn't room for Morse, different story or if there was the perfect trade to make then maybe you trade him but the Nats have left-field and the #5 in the batting order reserved for the Beast and if LaRoche walks then Beast most likely is the starting 1st baseman and batting 4th.
"So Rendon hasn't made that switch to 2B that a lot of people kept chattering about it?
Whodathunkit..."
There was one press report that they were trying to move him to 2nd base. I linked to that report when it appeared. They may have tried to move him in Viera during September, and it didn't work out.
So far, the only guy performing well in the AFL is Skole, and they did move him from 3rd to 1b. Skole was a butcher at 3rd, so the move to 1b makes sense for him, and the Nats are short of LH power hitters, especially if they do not sign ALR.
So far, Ryan Perry has not helped his case in the AFL.
Rizzo is moving his pieces around, expanding and evaluating his options, and changing his approach as part of the process. I have no clue how his game will evolve, and he probably doesn't, either. If you were to develop a decision tree for all of the permutations and possibilities for this off-season it would take all day. And you would still miss, probably, some big move that no one is considering, not even Rizzo, at this point.
The guy to watch is Rizzo, not the players. He is the chess master. The players are just the pieces at this time of the year. Rizzo is the guy in control of the game now.
Perry, because he is out of options, is an interesting case. Thankfully he only cost us Balestar.
Also Ghost, the new draft system will give the Nats substantial limits on $$$ to use in the draft so why not spend some of that on Otani etc?
FeelWood I think Harper is playing CF because he has to; my point is you can't keep signing players that lock him into that position forever. OK for another year sure, but our long term solution has him as a corner OF.
Who are these players they're signing that are locking Harper into CF? Re-signing LaRoche won't do that. The decision point on Morse isn't until this time next year. A lot can happen between now and then that will affect how that decision gets made. Just because there will be long-term decisions that will need to be made (hellooooo, there ALWAYS are) doesn't mean that any of them need to be made NOW.
Here are the Nats everyday players that will return in 2013 (barring a trade) and whether they hit from the left side or right:
Werth R
Zim R
Desmond R
Suzuki/Ramos R
Morse R
Harper L
Espinosa S (much stronger from the right-side)
Even with ALR, the Nats are a little RH heavy. Without him (and playing Moore/Morse at 1b/LF), they are even more RH heavy. Also, their best position player prospect, Anthony Rendon hits from the right side. So, if the thought is move Zim to first to play Rendon at 1st, the next also become RH heavy.
I am concerned about offering anything over 2 years @ $11 million to a 33 year-old 1B coming off a career year, but the Nats really need another solid LH bat, and ALR is clearly the best option. So, I think the Nats will re-sign him, but I have doubts whether his play over the next two years will justify the amounts that the Nats will need to pay him to keep him.
Laddie, just remember the AFL stats so far are small sample sizes. Skole started hot, went 0-4 last night and is leading his team. Rendon and Goodwin both went 1-4. If either goes 4 for 4 tonight they will be batting over .300 so the sample sizes can skew the numbers quickly.
I also think it wouldn't take Rendon long to be converted to a 2nd baseman. When Rendon looks like he is MLB ready with the bat and an upgrade for Rizzo is when they will pick his MLB position. For now he will continue at his natural position of 3rd base. Last I looked Ryan Zimmerman occupies that spot and nothing matters until Rendon's bat is MLB ready.
Water23 said...
Also Ghost, the new draft system will give the Nats substantial limits on $$$ to use in the draft so why not spend some of that on Otani etc?
October 23, 2012 11:25 AM
You get no argument from me and I expect the Nats to get in on Otani but I doubt they get him.
Remember how the A's came out of nowhere to snag Cespedes and the Reds did the same on Aroldis Chapman.
If LaRoche isn't resigned, then keep an eye on Kendry Morales as a possible replacement. The Angels are in need of a catcher, and the Nats have plenty to offer.
rogieshan,
Great Idea! If we lose ALR you get supp picks. But it is gonna be expensive JFlo + Moore + Meyer + Supp Pick + ??? That is a lot and although he is a young switch hitter not sure it is worth doing or that they would.
1A.. whatever Drake wants Drake should get.
SJM308. Wait? Santa didn't get my letters either? Bummer!
Remember.. Danny didn't start playin 2B until about 1 month before he got called up. I would love to see Rendon develop at whatever position we need him to play. I also want the kid to stay healthy.
ALR.. well, I want him to stay, but my vote doesn't count. Although Davey said it was more important to keep ALR than davey coming back as manager, so there is that. (Hi Davey! HI Mike!).
rogieshan said...
If LaRoche isn't resigned, then keep an eye on Kendry Morales as a possible replacement. The Angels are in need of a catcher, and the Nats have plenty to offer.
October 23, 2012 11:38 AM
Kendrys Morales is Angel's trade bait because they have Pujols but keep in mind he is a Free Agent after next season.
His 2012 stats were a mixed bag.
If you are a Bambi lover skip this comment:
I heard this on the radio the other day and it made me laugh, so pardon me if it was already stated here:
Things to offer ALR.. Free reign to hunt in Rock Creek Park and thin out the deer population. I can see it now, Buck Commander epsidoes from DC! Guest hosted by Tyler Moore, Strasburg and just for kicks - GIO causing absolute mayhem since he won't ever be quiet.
I will agree that Harper took some bad angles on balls, but I thought he did admiringly well for a 19 year old playing it for the first time. And this wasn't in the low minors either. He has shown amazing adaptability to everything thrown at him. He will only get better
All these guys are way overpaid. It is ludicrous. Anyway, what's he worth? LaRoche will tell you....All he can get. One thousand more, from anybody, than the Nats offer and he's gone. It is that simple.
Pilchard makes a good point, lots of RHB power options for the Nats not so much on the LH side.
Ideas of ALR taking 2 year deal with an option in this market are likely wishful thinking. He'll be in high demand and 3 guaranteed years will likely be on the table for him, especially given all of the new TV money out there and the lack of LH power bats available. He may love DC a bunch, but I am thinking his family will do just fine somepalce else with an additional $15M to spend on the move. We'll see.
Best 25 Go North!
dfh21
I say 3 years guaranteed at 33 mil total for ALR. Trade Morse. Put Brown in CF and leading off. Harper in LF and Werth in RF.
Brown
Harper
Zimmerman
LaRoche
Desmond
Werth
Espinosa
Ramos
P
and then if Brown fails at leadoff, switch him to 8th and bat Werth 1st again.
Werth
Harper
Zimmerman
LaRoche
Desmond
Espinosa
Ramos
Brown
P
thats what i would do if i was GM.
The thing with Laroche is, there are no other offers if the Nats get it done now. Nobody can swoop in and make an over for another 2 weeks. There is no excuse for them not putting a good deal on the table now and cutting out the chances of another team over bidding for him.
Laroche's last contract was basically a 2 year $16mil deal. The buyout will not be included now that it seems he will be declining his end of it. That means a contract in the range of 2/24 or 3/36 is a substantial raise. Especially considering while he had a very good season this year, he was dreadful and hurt the season before. You are talking about a 33% annual raise if you bump him up to 12mil per season when in reality his season this year was only a little better than his career averages which is what his previous deal was based on.
I say pay the man, and give him a nice raise. Give him 3 years if you have to but do not include a no trade clause and do no go overboard in the contract. As good as he is in the clubhouse and in the field he is on the wrong side of 30 and is and never will be a 15/mil per season player. The only way you do that is if the Lerner's are bumping payroll way up to win a championship.
David,
Moving Werth out of leadoff diminishes his value and why would you that anyway? he is one of the best leadoff hitters out there.
LaRoche for 2 years makes some sense but only in the context of a Morse trade. You really don't want that glove in left field for a whole year; do you?
Actually, Feel Wood, I'm not a dude. Probably wouldn't have made a difference in your response, but just in case we ever meet at an NI gathering I didn't want you to be surprised.
Anyway, I can use Twitter, LinkedIn, Yammer, email, IM, text message, or physical mail as appropriate. But the medium is still (part of) the message: a Tweet says "I thought about you" but a physical card says "I cared enough to make an effort to send this." But maybe that's not a guy thing? (if you'll excuse the stereotyping.)
ArVAFan
pdowdy83 said...
The thing with Laroche is, there are no other offers if the Nats get it done now. Nobody can swoop in and make an over for another 2 weeks.
Don't believe for a second that LaRoche's agent hasn't made informal calls to several other GMs to test the waters out there to see what his market looks like.
JD said...
LaRoche for 2 years makes some sense but only in the context of a Morse trade. You really don't want that glove in left field for a whole year; do you?
October 23, 2012 12:37 PM
Who do you replace Morse with?
I don't get the bitchin' 'bout Morse in LF. His arm isn't the greatest but (A) he was clearly impaired by the (oblique?) injury; (B) he hits the cut-off man (usually rifle-armed Desmond); (C) he takes pretty good angles to the ball (not true when he's playing RF); (D) he catches what he gets to; (E) much of what he doesn't get to Harper does; (F) Juan Pierre plays LF too. No big deal.
As to Rendon, as the football recruiters say, his position is "athlete." If he turns to be a major league hitter sometime during LaRoche's tenure, he can get ABs somewhere else in the lineup, including LF if Morse has gone somewhere else. For all the people who complain about Morse, Rendon couldn't possibly be worse.
David said...
I say 3 years guaranteed at 33 mil total for ALR. Trade Morse. Put Brown in CF and leading off. Harper in LF and Werth in RF.
Brown
Harper
Zimmerman
LaRoche
Desmond
Werth
Espinosa
Ramos
P
and then if Brown fails at leadoff, switch him to 8th and bat Werth 1st again.
You are thinking it is 2009 again. This is not a time to experiment and put a Rookie in leadoff who is unproven at the MLB level. Brown barely got a sniff this year even with his gawdy numbers in AAA. Nobody knows what he can do playing everyday let alone the stress of leadoff.
Its a long-shot for Brown to even make the Opening Day roster with Chad Tracy signed to a contract and Bernadina the incumbent bench OF.
How can anyone evrn think of breaking up Drake LaRoche and Bryce?
The idea of 2 years with a vesting option makes sense for both sides. Ryan, Desi, and Espi all benefit from having. ALR at first base.
Theophilus T. S. said...
I don't get the bitchin' 'bout Morse in LF. His arm isn't the greatest but (A) he was clearly impaired by the (oblique?) injury; (B) he hits the cut-off man (usually rifle-armed Desmond); (C) he takes pretty good angles to the ball (not true when he's playing RF); (D) he catches what he gets to; (E) much of what he doesn't get to Harper does; (F) Juan Pierre plays LF too. No big deal.
As to Rendon, as the football recruiters say, his position is "athlete." If he turns to be a major league hitter sometime during LaRoche's tenure, he can get ABs somewhere else in the lineup, including LF if Morse has gone somewhere else. For all the people who complain about Morse, Rendon couldn't possibly be worse.
October 23, 2012 1:05 PM
Good points on Morse and Rendon and I agree with everything you said. Rendon -if- he can hit like the phenom we think he can be, will play 2nd, 3rd or LF. So far, Rendon hasn't hit like a phenom, yet so its really not an issue that has to be decided on.
Water - we get no picks at all for ALR, because of the mutual option, he is not defined as a free agent that is pick worthy.
Theo
Some good points there, but your first point--and a very important one--is of only limited relevance: Morse's defense in LF was only marginally less bad last year, when he wasn't injured.
Put another way: There are ~ 30 MLB players who logged at least 800 innings in LF over 2011-12. Morse has the worst UZR/150 by far--he's almost 50% worse than the 2d worst player, Logan Morrison.
Put still another way: commenters bitch about Morse's defense in LF because Morse's defense in LF stinks.
As for communications -- when Jayson broke his wrist there was a special email that was put out to send him messages --- I think by FP. Before he came back to the team I got an email that had been written by Jayson to all the fans that communicated with him thanking us for caring and writing. That was obviously done through the team. I don't know if they pass along messages generally, but I would think they would pass along snail mail. Most of them respond to tweets.
sm13 said...
The idea of 2 years with a vesting option makes sense for both sides. Ryan, Desi, and Espi all benefit from having. ALR at first base.
October 23, 2012 1:11 PM
You can't speak for ALR. He may think 3 years straight up guaranteed is the minimum or maybe he wants a 4 year deal. Its a no-brainer for a Nats fan to say 2 years and an equitable vesting option and I have to believe all of that has been offered and you best believe ALR's side is pushing beyond that and that is why we haven't heard about a new contract.
Its a negotiation where LaRoche just finished the best year of his career and while he wants to stay, he wants to be set for life as well as generational wealth for his children and beyond. Now is really his last chance to do this because if he takes a 2 year deal his worth will most likely be diminished as a 35 year old 1st baseman negotiating at that point in time. Have to believe he absolutely wants a 3 year deal.
hiramhover said...
Theo
Some good points there, but your first point--and a very important one--is of only limited relevance: Morse's defense in LF was only marginally less bad last year, when he wasn't injured.
Put another way: There are ~ 30 MLB players who logged at least 800 innings in LF over 2011-12. Morse has the worst UZR/150 by far--he's almost 50% worse than the 2d worst player, Logan Morrison.
Put still another way: commenters bitch about Morse's defense in LF because Morse's defense in LF stinks.
October 23, 2012 1:15 PM
I don't care what the UZR says. Morse is better than Matt Holliday who is a butcher with the glove and routes so I think Morse is no worse than 29 out of 30 and if I gave a lot of thought to it I can't think of any makeable plays that Morse didn't make. He is just not a flashy fielder but he makes the plays he is supposed to make.
Ghost,
I am thinking Rizzo has at least one major surprise up his sleeve and I don't think it's a big time pitcher. We already have 4 young studs who in a couple of years will all be very expensive; it doesn't make sense to sink another $100 mil to fill the 5 spot. Lohse or Anibal make sense to me.
I am hoping for someone like Justin Upton in a big trade; wouldn't that fill in the outfield nicely?
I disagree with the Rendon conclusions. I think that his greatest value will be if he stays at 3rd and seeing as we already have a 3rd baseman I think he will eventually be traded but I think he has to build up his resume 1st.
I think moving Zim to 1st also diminishes his value to the team and that's why he will be at 3rd for the foreseeable future.
All I want for Morse is a truly Healthy season along with Ryan, Werth, Harper, Ian, Wilson, Drew, and everyone else on the team. Then we should be able to really judge what this team can do.
Ghost,
I can't believe you are trying to make a case for Morse as a passable left fielder. He is not bad; he's terrible to where he overall WAR was in 2012 was about 0.5; this means his defense completely negated his offense.
If he has an offensive year like 2011 you can sacrifice some defense but how likely is that?
AVF, I sent Werth a card as well. I think it means that you and I are both old school, prestigious fans. (I'm not a dude either, if we're keeping track.) :-)
c715e5d6-9d22-11e1-a89a-000f20980440 said...
Actually, Feel Wood, I'm not a dude. Probably wouldn't have made a difference in your response, but just in case we ever meet at an NI gathering I didn't want you to be surprised.
Anyway, I can use Twitter, LinkedIn, Yammer, email, IM, text message, or physical mail as appropriate. But the medium is still (part of) the message: a Tweet says "I thought about you" but a physical card says "I cared enough to make an effort to send this." But maybe that's not a guy thing? (if you'll excuse the stereotyping.)
ArVAFan
October 23, 2012 12:44 PM
JD said...
Ghost,
I am thinking Rizzo has at least one major surprise up his sleeve and I don't think it's a big time pitcher. We already have 4 young studs who in a couple of years will all be very expensive; it doesn't make sense to sink another $100 mil to fill the 5 spot. Lohse or Anibal make sense to me.
I am hoping for someone like Justin Upton in a big trade; wouldn't that fill in the outfield nicely?
October 23, 2012 1:27 PM
You never know what Rizzo is thinking because he holds his cards close to his vest. He knows Justin Upton well since he was involved with Drafting him at Arizona.
Ghost,
Do you think Morse and Espinosa gets you Justin Upton?
JD said...
Ghost,
I can't believe you are trying to make a case for Morse as a passable left fielder. He is not bad; he's terrible to where he overall WAR was in 2012 was about 0.5; this means his defense completely negated his offense.
If he has an offensive year like 2011 you can sacrifice some defense but how likely is that?
October 23, 2012 1:35 PM
Tell me 5 plays he didn't make on defense in LF because I believe he is passable -if- his offense can return to 2011 form or close to that.
Yeah, Upton will still cost a ton. Stay away!
My guess as others have said is that Morse will be traded for bullpen help and a star outfielder will be acquired. I say this not because I don't like Mike - I think he's great. But the slowness of his feet does get on my nerves a little.
I have never heard any of this "Ryan at 1st" except on this blog. I think that is years away, as all big sluggers as they get old end up at 1st or DH. It's a non-issue for the signing of ALR at this time.
JD said...
Ghost,
Do you think Morse and Espinosa gets you Justin Upton?
October 23, 2012 1:40 PM
I think Arizona wants more than that package. If they would do that, sold.
By the way, I like Justin Upton better than BJ Upton. Upton had a MVP type year in 2011. Not sure what happened to his power drop in 2012 but he still is a solid player and I would do that deal.
Ghost
'Tell me 5 plays he didn't make on defense in LF because I believe he is passable -if- his offense can return to 2011 form or close to that.'
I don't have documented evidence but if my memory serves me at all (doubtful) I can see real difficulties in digging balls out of the corner with runners scoring from 1st base and just basic uncomfortable reads on a consistent basis.
Having said that I agree with your last point; I just don't have as much confidence as you that he will return to his 2011 production.
Faraz,
Why stay away?
Ghost,
I would do that package in a heart beat (if I where the Nats) and I would even throw in Brown or Perez.
JD, yes, he has had problems in the corner digging balls but can only remember once when a runner took an extra base and that happened in the playoff game and ball was slightly wedged under the fence.
He is just a big awkward guy who doesn't look comfortable out there but watch Hunter Pence for SF Giants---that guy twist turns and contorts and makes you equally nervous.
Justin is much better (and younger) than BJ. I think BJ is past the point where you can talk about potential although he did have a nice power year last year.
Ghost,
I agree about Pence and Holiday; they stink too.
Someone dropped Juan Pierre's name. How good a season did that guy have last year for the pocket change the Phils paid him? Stole a bunch of bags, did not get caught much, hit for average, got on a ton, dropped a gajillion sac bunts like he always does, very few Ks, and played a not so terrible LF. Pierre on a 1 yr deal to come off the bench and bat 1 or 2, send Morse to the AL where he so very much belongs, get LH bull pen help or a future CF guy in return for him maybe? Hot stove is gonna be fun.
Faraz,
I may be wrong but my gut tells me that Rizzo isn't bringing back the exact roster that finished out last year and I'm not talking cosmetic changes. We know that the core is Zim,Harper,Werth,Desi and Ramos and Suzuki will likely return.
I think it's Rizzo's style to have at least one big splash every off season and I think this year won't be different.
Don, I wanted Pierre last year but the Nats can't use him anymore as a lefty bat with the depth of Bernadina and Brown in front of him.
The Nats could use a Pierre type who is right-handed and if you can name that person, let Rizzo know.
Juan Pierre = singles hitter. You don't want a 1.7 WAR player in LF. We can do better than that.
Both Uptons are chuckleheads whose teams have decided they can't win with them as part of their lineups. They just can't find suckers -- except for some of people on this list -- who are willing to give AZ more than they're worth.
UZRs are crap. You can only judge a player on the plays he makes/gets to. When I said that Harper catches a lot of balls in Morse's "territory," I wasn't being facetious. More speed, better arm, often shaded toward left anyway. So that's good, isn't it?
Holliday is so bad in LF I felt sorry for the Cardinals at times.
Who could forget that ball in DC that Holliday went to the LF wall and pulled up and the ball bounces in front of him. He is a butcher who literally has dropped balls in his glove.
WAR schmor. What is so terrible about singles hitters? Richie Ashburn, Pete Rose, Ichiro, Jeter, Brock, Mickey Rivers, Lenny Dykstra, Vince Coleman . . . (And as if Morse had a better WAR than Pierre in 2012? 0.3, I think for big Mike). Pierre would have been great for the Nats last year. Few Ks, might be the best bnunter in the game, hits for average, can steal a bag, go first to third. They struggled to score for most of the season in large part because they could not get them on and over, no?
Theophilus T. S. said...
Both Uptons are chuckleheads whose teams have decided they can't win with them as part of their lineups. They just can't find suckers -- except for some of people on this list -- who are willing to give AZ more than they're worth.
Rizzo knows Justin Upton. Yes, something bad happened last year. They tried to move him at the trade deadline and couldn't.
Not a BJ Upton fan even though he had a good season in his 'walk' year. Still too many strikeouts and questions about his clubhouse demeanor.
2 players who were drafted with unlimited potential and like I said, Justin Upton had a MVP type season in 2011 and things soured with his team in 2012.
I do believe they don't want him back but they want value for him.
Don, there's no room for Pierre in DC. He will be fine for a team that can use a LH outfield bat.
Theo,
No it's not good. When a fielder has to shade over in one direction to cover the weakness of another you are creating a hole somewhere and it's not like Werth is a Gazelle in right either.
I also don't know how you are able to character assassinate someone who I'm pretty sure you never met. And I'm not sure why you wouldn't want a player who is only 25 and is only a year removed from having an MVP type season.
Don,
You can say WAR Schmor all you want but the fact remains that with all his slap hitting, bunting etc Pierre contributed less than 2 wins to his team last year. I agree that Morse wasn't good last year but I think you can do better than Juan Pierre.
This one was rather memorable, I thought. :-)
Ghost Of Steve M. said...
Who could forget that ball in DC that Holliday went to the LF wall and pulled up and the ball bounces in front of him. He is a butcher who literally has dropped balls in his glove.
October 23, 2012 2:08 PM
natsfan1a, yep, that is a memorable Holliday error. He also screws up in tight situations. He had one drop that would have ended a game that cost them a win.
Like I said a butcher.
1A! Your the best. I laughed so hard, the people in the next cube had to come watch.
I think that Dan Dickerson and Jim Price broadcast the Tiger games on radio.
Wow , Ghost, I wasn't attempting to speak for ALR, just voicing what seemed fair to me. Ultimately, Adam will likely have to choose between top dollar vs staying in DC.
Glad you enjoyed it, Michele. :-)
Talking about the radio crews for SF and DET, when you're not busy, go over here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jGPNgYzElk and enjoy.
It's the last day of the 1934 season between the Yankees and Tigers. It's the entire game and features Gehrig, Greenberg and whole bunch of stars.
I thought I'd listen for a couple of minutes and ended up staying with it until 2:00 in the morning.
Ruth was hurt and didn't start (but I think pinch hit late in the game).
Farid @ Idaho
sm13, I'm just tempering everyones expectations since the FA market at 1st is poor it may lead to ALR getting a great deal from another team.
JD
I think that it is that Pierre contributed less than 2 wins above the average LF, not that he was only worth 1.7 wins, no?
Anyway, the club has guys who can mash it -- Zim, Harper, Morse, Moore, Desi, Werth in theory, Espi when he hits it, maybe even Ramos (and ALR, of course, if he stays). They have 20+ HR power all over, but they have not so much in terms of high OBP, make contact guys. I am not in love with Juan Pierre or anything, but he is a valuable guy without doubt. Forget mashers Tex, ARod and Granderson, if the Yanks did not add litte Ichiro (who hit over .320 as a Yank), then they don't win their Division. If Scutaro is not in SF where would they be? Kozma killed the Nats. Those small ball hitters are pretty important. Sure most clubs get those guys from middle infield, but Desi might hit 30 HR's next year so he's not going to be doing anything just to get on and he's not going to be asked to bunt much (if at all) with the power he has shown. And neither Werth nor Harper should be hitting 1 or 2 in 2013, they should be run producers -- so I hope that Rizzo is thinking about adding some of these slap it down and run like Hell pesky out guys. I think that we need 'em. If Rizzo could flip Morse for a lead-off killer glove CF (tall order) I would be pretty excited about that move. We'll see.
JD, asking price will be high for Justin. also I doubt they would want another OF in return since they already have four worthy of being starting players I believe.
a post from nowhere: I hope Brandon Webb is pitching somewhere and trying to make a comeback.
Don,
it's 1.7 above replacement; not above average. All I,m saying is that you can do better than that.
Faraz,
They traded away Chris Young but I don't really know what their situation is and I was really just using Upton as an example of an impact player who does with the bat and the glove and also has speed and power. When players like that are even remotely available I think it doesn't hurt to kick the tires.
Too many good, everyday, players get overlooked because they don't fit a prototype - not a lead-off centerfielder, not a power hitting 1B, just a singles hitter, never be more than a bench player or utility infielder. You need a varied skill set to build a team. You just can't have your entire lineup be guys who strike out a lot and swing for the fences. You need some slappy guys who can move over runners, hit and run. Oftentimes those guys, like Scutaro, turn out to be gold. You need those guys that might not be the big names, but are flat-out baseball players that know the game, keep their heads, hustle, do anything the team needs and don't need any recognition. I see Lombo as a future Scutaro.
Faraz,
It doesn't look good for Webb.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120914&content_id=38425656&vkey=news_ari&c_id=ari
Ozzie fired by the Fish ... the division just got a little tougher.
DaveB - that's how our division rolls - sigh... Although I do think that both the Marlins and the Phils will have some re-tooling to do and it might take them longer than just one off season. Think the Marlins will be interviewing Bobby Valentine? ;)
why does everyone want Werth to stay at leadoff? he's hitting out of position in my mind. a doubles and homerun machine that can bat .300 shouldnt be leadoff. and to poster who said Brown is an unproven commodity... nobody knew that Harper was going to be able to produce until they gave him the chance as well. same with any new player. but the baseball minds of the Nats thought Harper was ready. if they think the same about Brown im okay with that. i believe the Nats look at Brown as an everyday player, with Morse blocking him. Davey isnt afraid of using first year players like Harper, Moore, Lombo, and starting them either. i would not be surprised if Brown makes the Nats out of Spring Training batting 8th and playing CF with Werth leading off.
Lots of our blocked kids can tear it up when they are given the opportunity. This year was a case in point. I love the hunger in them to play. Off the subject but - Xavier Nady could get a world series ring. Of course, we don't know if he is on the 25 man for the series, do we? I find that disturbing.
Ghost, I didn't watch Matt Holliday all season, but I did watch Morse, and I sit on the LF side.
Ghost, with respect. I sit on the LF side. I saw Morse miss play after play. Several times he misjudged how balls were going to bounce off the wall, misjudged whether they were foul or fair, etc. (The type of thing Werth routinely judges correctly). This is in his own park, right in front of me--heaven only knows how he did in parks where he didn't know the configuration (or at games I wasn't at). He was able to get to balls in the air if he got a good jump, but singles turned into doubles and even triples, and he didn't go after ball because he "assumed" they were going foul.
Big surprise! From USA Today:
"Ozzie Guillen is out as manager of the Miami Marlins after one season, the team announced Tuesday. He had three years and $7.5 million remaining on his contract. "After careful consideration following the disappointment of the 2012 season, we decided to dismiss Ozzie," Marlins president Larry Beinfest said in a statement."
What a great gig. Who wouldn't want to manage the Marlins? Bobby Valentine is available, I hear.
Bottom line, you have a guy like Morse for offense. I think when he is completely healthy he will be better in the field, but so far he doesn't have the knack of staying healthy. As was pointed out, 2013 is his "contract" year. I think Davey put the kaybosh on some of the "goofier" stuff he was doing the stuff that made him a fan favorite but I found distracting. There's talent there, the question is how to bring it out for a full season.
Funny about Guillen. He took some players to Spain (including Giancarlo Stanton) and they get back, and the next thing you know he's fired.
NL
"Ghost, with respect. I sit on the LF side. I saw Morse miss play after play. Several times he misjudged how balls were going to bounce off the wall, misjudged whether they were foul or fair, etc. (The type of thing Werth routinely judges correctly). This is in his own park, right in front of me--heaven only knows how he did in parks where he didn't know the configuration (or at games I wasn't at). He was able to get to balls in the air if he got a good jump, but singles turned into doubles and even triples, and he didn't go after ball because he "assumed" they were going foul."
You are being kind, IMO. If you ever watch a replay of the game 5 fiasco, pay attention to how the Cards got their first run. It was on a double to left field with a man on first. Morse sort of sashayed over to the ball like he was Madonna displaying himself after a wardrobe malfunction. He managed to pick the ball up, and his "throw" landed about 20 feet in front of him and started a slow roll towards the IF. Desi had to scramble out to the middle of LF to retrieve it and relay the ball to Zim to hold the batter on 2nd base. the runner from first scored easily. That was a run that could have been avoided with competent defense in LF, IMO. The next better made the 3rd out of the inning making it an unearned run, in my book.
Cut the Ghost some slack. He has a blind spot for Morse, the way many have a blind spot for Danny. Me, I have no blind spots. I just watch and believe what I see.
I look at Browns defense alone from Spring training till the last game, and he is flawless. Between the way he reads the ball, and his speed, he is definately a true CF with the ability to play all positions. I agree with Davide that Morse is blocking him so trade him or trade Morse, and play him.
JD, Kubel, Adam eaton, Parra, and Upton are four OFs I was talking about. I hear their names being mentioned as four AZ OFs from fans and rumors. Thus by trading upton for morse, they still end up with four OFs (since golds... is at 1B). what they definitely want a SS in return and something more. I am not sure we are a fit for their needs. also I am of the group that wants to take it easy on prospects this off-season and go after free agents if possible.
The issue is the years , no the money , so we overpay him for 2 years , like 14 to 15 millions and a option for the third. If we let him go , and keep Morse , then we need a lefty in the outfield and I don't see anyone available.
Trade Morse , and let Moore learn the outfield in the winter league , he cant be worse than Morse with the glove. Sign Peavey for 3 years and we are set go for the next 3 years.
All year long Rizzo and everybody else said that 2013 is the year , time to prove it .
NatsLady and Laddie, I said Morse was 29th out of 30. Somebody is going to be 29th and its not a Good thing.
He looks uncomfortable out there and the lack of gracefulness makes him look worse BUT he is serviceable because he gives this team a BIG bat.
David,
'a doubles and homerun machine that can bat .300 shouldnt be leadoff.'
I almost fell off my chair when I read that. What Werth is is a OBP machine.
Ghost, agree on that. He's there for his bat (as is Holliday). I can live with that. I can live with him at 1B, if necessary. But I'd rather have ALR (LH bat) at first.
Morse most likely is done as a Nat after 2013. The solution is hoping the CF of the future can emerge from the Minors and Harp goes to RF and Werth to LF.
I guess we'll soon see what kind of "discount" ALR is willing to give the Nats, whether in years or dollars, to stay in DC and win with this team that he clearly likes. Because I seriously doubt that the Nats will be willing to match the best offer he can get as a free agent. The cupboard of available 1st baseman with his skills is pretty much bare, other than him. 2 years is definitely not going to do it. $13 million per year isn't either.
I'm probably in the minority here, but although I will miss ALR I won't be crushed if we lose him. 1B is one place where we have a few different Plan B's that might turn out ok.
Why would the Nats acquire Juan Pierre?
Roger Bernadina is a better player, and he can't get ABs.
Corey Brown will never be an everyday MLB OF. He will be 27 next year, and has 28 MLB ABs. He is at best a 5th OF on a MLB roster, but is more accurately described as AAAA player. Boggles my mind that anyone would think that the Nats should plan to make him an everyday player.
I totally understand that the Nats had developmental years and now we are in the play to win now phase. But you cannot ever, ever stop developing players. All of my extended family lives in Pa. and they will tell you that's what happened to the Phils - they just stopped grooming replacements and kept running the same, aging guys out there. They were watching it happen, seeing it coming. Then you have a void - your veterans start ailing and their replacements aren't ready. They get thrown in and need too much time to learn. Somehow, you have to keep your team fresh -- part core players that provide consistency, part free agents, and part home-grown depth. I think Corey Brown could be a Nats post-season team's outfielder and I think Tyler Moore could be it's 1B. Tyler Moore won't save as many throws as ALR right away, but he is pretty decent there and could probably equal the offensive production. Corey Brown could be better defensively than Morse but you lose his bat. Will the Nats continue to use home-grown talent or will they bring in free agents? At some point every player was given that first starting job opportunity.
Keep in mind that Morse was dealing with a hamstring issue at the end of the season. Had they not been pushing to clinch and then right into the playoffs he would probably have had several days off to heal. But he didn't. And the cold surely didn't help the night of Game 5. In a situation like that a player needs to choose his battles. Morse wss not in that game to possibly bust his hammy going after a fly ball in the corner. He was in that game for his bat - and he delivered there.
Apologies if this has been posted before-- I hadn't seen it. A pretty interesting analysis of where the postseason attendance revenue ends up. The Nats players definitely missed on on a big payday by losing the NLDS. The Lerners did pretty well, but would have done even better if we had won. Bud Selig and MLB take 15% off the top. Nice deal for them.
To the Juan Pierre lovers, the test of whether you should want a player should be the number of teams who don't want him. There are now six teams who let him go or moved him. The Dodgers paid the Cubs $11MM to take him off their hands. He played for the Phillies last year for $800,000, or $450,000 less than local fan whipping boy Rick Ankiel got from the Nats for a half season -- and the same amount less than Ankiel has signed for next year from thrift conscious KC.
The numbers are trying to tell you something; you just have to listen.
The Nata have plenty of options at first base. But only two are left-handed sluggers, and one that needs work on his fielding perhaps in AA/AAA next season in Matt Skole. Skole is lighting things up in the Arizona Fall League.
There is nothing that says that Anthony Rendon can't spend a season to two seasons in the minors refining his skills. But not beyond that. Another injury (he's been hurt the last three years now) to Zimmerman and it seems likely that Davey will bring Rendon up and spot him at third base while Zim recovers.
That move would almost guarantee that LaRoche would get traded ... so a two year deal with a third year option is the maximum the Nats could afford to offer because Zimmerman seems likely to end up at first base sooner or later depending on healthy he manages to stay ...
And what about Matt Skole? Potentially, that coveted left-handed impact bat to go with Harper? And what about Tyler Moore? He really isn't a left-fielder. Unlike Morse, (In spite of Natslady's continuous Riggleman emulation he can play the outfield when he is reasonably healthy,) Moore really isn't an outfielder. And neither is Skole.
BUT, the Nats do have three potential left-handed outfielders with the modicum of talent required: Corey Brown, Erik Komatsu (Who has already played in the majors through rule 5), and Brian Goodwin. Add in Roger Bernadina and the Nats look pretty well set for a long time in the outfield at any of the three spots.
One of the above will likely replace Morse at some point making Natslady happy. But, that will likely occur simultaneously with Zimmerman's move to first base supplanting LaRoche.
The trick part is the timing.
I think Corey Brown could be a Nats post-season team's outfielder and I think Tyler Moore could be it's 1B.
Maybe some day. But not in 2013. There's absolutely no way Rizzo and Davey are going to tackle the unfinished business of defending a division title and moving deeper into the playoffs by penciling in either or both of those guys as a starter coming out of spring training. If LaRoche is not back, they will need to trade for or sign as a free agent an equivalent player to replace him, either as the first baseman or as the left fielder if Morse moves to first. They'll have to pay a lot for that player, too, which says to me that they'll probably pay whatever it takes to retain LaRoche. He'll command good offers from other teams, but they won't be ridiculous like Fielder/Pujols. There's no reason the Nats won't match whatever other offers he gets.
why does everyone want Werth to stay at leadoff? he's hitting out of position in my mind. a doubles and homerun machine that can bat .300 shouldnt be leadoff. and to poster who said Brown is an unproven commodity...
So far the only position where Werth has lived up to expectations is lead off. Werth's power has fallen off but he is still a threat that pitchers have to take into consideration.
Gee, I guess you never heard of guys like Bonds, Mays, Brady Anderson, and well, there was a guy who hit quite a number of homers for the Nats at lead off in Alfonso Soriano ... and that of course led to an enormous contract with the Cubs.
C'mon, these comments indicate that you haven't been watching baseball for very long ... slap hitters in the lead-off spot are over rated. See Morgan, Nyjer.
Trade Morse , and let Moore learn the outfield in the winter league , he cant be worse than Morse with the glove.
From what I could see he is significantly worse especially range wise ... surprisingly you never hear Natslady complaining about him. Makes me wonder about her amazing "eyes".
There's absolutely no way Rizzo and Davey are going to tackle the unfinished business of defending a division title and moving deeper into the playoffs by penciling in either or both of those guys as a starter coming out of spring training.
Davey has a long history of doing just the opposite unless he got overruled by the FO. And that usually led to some resentment on his part.
Davey will move a talented minor leaguer into that slot without even thinking about it, and still win. See NY Mets.
He is at best a 5th OF on a MLB roster, but is more accurately described as AAAA player. Boggles my mind that anyone would think that the Nats should plan to make him an everyday player.
Seems to me I recall folks like you saying the exact same thing about Michael Morse. And of course they were wrong.
If Brown comes into spring training and makes it hard for them not to put him in the lineup ...
Swami -- Philadelphia is a bad example. They just stopped developing players. They haven't brought up a regular since Ruiz. They didn't trade any polished middle infielders for Halladay, Pence or Oswalt. Their middle infield didn't consist of Michael Martinez and Pete Orr last season because of any logjam created by Howard, Utley and Rollins.
The Nats have made a commitment to contend, well, indefinitely. They can't plan on fulfilling that commitment by gazing into a crystal ball and predicting that, based on 150 ABs, Tyler Moore is going to hit 32 HR and drive in 100 -- or even close to it.
peric - I think Davey actually prefers the young, energetic skill set of a rookie to a veteran that might not be on the organization's page. He has liked DeRosa ( but not played him) and Tracey, for sure. But other vets were gone in sixty seconds when they didn't perform - Ankiel, Nady, Lidge. He kept the rooks up and Harper ahead of schedule.
Davey will move a talented minor leaguer into that slot without even thinking about it, and still win. See NY Mets.
Midseason, sure. But no way will he go into a season with a talented rookie as the starter and no depth behind him. He didn't even do that when he had the once-in-a-generation talent of Bryce Harper waiting to come up.
You DO NOT entrust 1B to a right-handed rookie (Moore) or an often-injured Morse (also right-handed).
As for RZ, he has shown he will do whatever it takes to play a quality 3B, plus offense. I don't think we will see him tumbling over home plate until Game 7. Older and wiser.
Tyler Moore is no longer a rookie. He looks like he could potentially produce better than LaRoche at the plate ... and he is younger.
Morse, almost injury free, is a much scarier impact hitter to opposing pitchers.
Natslady you only look at defense and that's because you likely were never very good at the offensive side of the game ... but that is the key ... go back and look at what the Cardinals did in game 5 if you don't believe it.
LaRoche comes back because he has a left-handed bat and Davey does like the matchups that can produce. But LaRoche could end up having another subpar year. Then what? Morse or Moore would end up at first driving you crazy.
Theo TS - not saying the Nats are like the Phils or even will be in the future. I don't think they will, actually. Just a precautionary tale of what can happen if you tie up too many veterans with long contracts and stop developing and bringing up fresh talent. I think our organization is too smart for that.
He didn't even do that when he had the once-in-a-generation talent of Bryce Harper waiting to come up.
The FO not Davey wanted Harper in the minors. As soon as that key injury occurred who did Davey call? Harper was not in Syracuse for very long.
Davey will continue to do the same. Davey has said at least 1,000,000 times that he prefers staying inside the organization when he needs help. He does not like to go outside.
It will be the FO that will want to do that. BUT, Davey appears to have earned significant veto power wouldn't you say?
And err ditto Swami!
When is Giancarlo Stanton a FA? Can we trade for him? The fish will have a fire sale soon. I hope they are still a circus next year. Still need to blow up that monstrosity in the OF
JD, what i meant by that was.... the way Werth was hitting, and has hit throughout his career makes him an RBI machine. that's why you "should" put him in the middle of the lineup. ive been watching baseball my whole life. played for 13 seasons. i don't think Davey wants Werth at leadoff. he just had no better option this year. and historically Davey has no problems putting in young or in Browns case, an inexperienced player into the lineup, if his own personal talent meter thinks he's ready.
David, I agree. Part of the reason for Werth at leadoff was the wrist injury sapped Werth's power (not his eye or his speed), but once it returns you have to think he will go lower in the order. However, balancing that is the "comfort level" Harper had with Werth ahead of him.
Peric, I didn't see enough of Moore in the OF to be critical, I'm taking other people's word on his fielding skills. I did notice that when Davey gave ALR a rare day off he only put Moore at 1B a couple of times and instead put Tracy there.
I'm not going to scope out lineups--with or without Corey Brown--because trades and FA signings are not in the picture yet. Coco Crisp, anyone? Don't you think he's a goner frim the A's now that they have Chris Young? Or are they going to flip Young?
Davey will continue to do the same. Davey has said at least 1,000,000 times that he prefers staying inside the organization when he needs help. He does not like to go outside.
It will be the FO that will want to do that. BUT, Davey appears to have earned significant veto power wouldn't you say?
Again, you're talking midseason replacement. Rizzo is the one who assembles the team in the offseason. He's not going to place all his eggs in the virtual or actual rookie basket. No way. And Davey would not want him to do that.
MicheleS....Stanton...what a relief it would be to get him!!
MicheleS said...
When is Giancarlo Stanton a FA? Can we trade for him? The fish will have a fire sale soon. I hope they are still a circus next year. Still need to blow up that monstrosity in the OF
October 23, 2012 6:09 PM
_________________________________
Keep dreaming. He's not a Free Agent until after 2016 as he has only qualified for 2 MLB seasons. He isn't even arbitration eligible until 2014.
NatsLady -- Davey put Tracy at 1B and Moore in the outfield because Tracey can't play the outfield. When Tyler got to play first, I remember distinctly, he had a really good game. His defense was crisp - that's his natural position - he has that nice stretch move that first basemen use, and his offense was really good because he was relaxed and not trying too hard to play a position he didn't know very well. I remember FP commenting that it was a shame he couldn't play there more because he looked so natural over there. Tracy and Lombo are going to get the infield starts. Lombo can pretty much play anywhere now, I am convinced of that, but they won't put Tracy in the outfield. Tyler and Lombo both strike me as the kind of kids that will do whatever is asked of them whenever it is asked. They are very talented and hardworking and between the two of them they cover a broad skill set. Still can't believe Lombo started hitting home runs at the big league level. Who does that?
Brian Goodwin 2 for 2 in the AFL game tonight.
Lombo does not have the arm to play the outfield; late in the season you saw everyone running on him. He might be able to track balls down but he'll never be an advantage to us playing in the outfield. He'll be an advantage to us to have as our backup infielder; at some point Davey is going to have to realize he needs to PH for Espi more often - if he doesn't have him start less games. That rant I believe has already been well covered lol.
Well, yes, that rant has been covered. Espi/ Lombo platoon could be an upgrade. Like that will ever happen. How much rope will Danny get next season? Can't keep having that automatic out. Well, there I go again - I know - been covered.
Nats did well in AFL. Perry went 4 innings of shutout ball lowering his ERA to 7.00 and Brian Goodwin went 3 for 4. Skole went 1 for 4 and the 1 hit was a HR. Rendon went 0-3 with a walk and a stolen base.
Post a Comment