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US Presswire photo Ross Detwiler will be asked to keep the Nationals' season alive. |
Ross Detwiler wasn't projected to make the Nationals' rotation out of spring training, and even after earning the fifth starter's job on Opening Day, he still was bumped to the bullpen in May after Chien-Ming Wang returned from a hamstring injury.
Along the way, though, Detwiler proved his worth to the Nationals and proved himself a quality big-league starter during a breakthrough season that saw him go 10-8 while posting a 3.40 ERA.
That season-long performance earned Detwiler a spot in the Nationals' postseason rotation, and now it's earned him the right to start a win-or-else Game 4 for his team.
"He has really come a long way," manager Davey Johnson said. "I've seen him pitch some great ballgames. You know, he's got outstanding stuff, and he's got good poise. I have never seen him get really rattled by the situation."
That might be wishful thinking on Johnson's part, because Detwiler certainly appeared rattled the last time he pitched. Given the ball 11 days ago in St. Louis to face the same lineup he'll go up against this afternoon, the 26-year-old lefty seemed to wilt under the weight of the moment.
With a chance to clinch the NL East title for the Nationals, Detwiler lasted only 2 1/3 innings, giving up seven runs (three earned) while walking five.
"I try not to remember that one," he joked yesterday morning, prior to Game 3.
Detwiler will need to recall at least some details of that sub-par outing, lest he make the same mistakes against the Cardinals.
"The scouting report is still fresh in my mind," he said. "It's my last start and the last hitters I saw. I'll know how to attack them and how I want to do it."
The key for Detwiler, as it has been so often this season: Go right after hitters and get ahead in the count, then start mixing and matching his offspeed stuff with his fastball.
One aspect in Detwiler's favor: He'll be pitching in the familiar and comfortable surroundings of Nationals Park, where he went 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA this season. On the road, he was 2-6 with a 4.38 ERA.
Detwiler doesn't know why precisely his home/road splits have been so dramatic, but he admits there's a comfort level pitching in Washington.
"I think it's just a routine thing," he said. "I'm able to get in the routine here. I have my places I go before starts at home. Obviously on the road, you're in a different city, so you can't do that. Hopefully that's what it is, and I'll go about that tomorrow."
If not, Detwiler and the Nationals might have all winter to think about it.
112 comments:
This has all the markings of a trap game: Lohse v. Dewiler, Cards Offense and Nats lack thereof, Cards relaxed vs. Nats trying to go 3 for 1 with each AB, etc.
My concern: Detwiler has been relying on the fastball this season, as encouraged/directed by coaches. Cards a fastball hitting team, and with the shadows, fastballs easier to hit than balls thrown with spin.
Please, please, please stay low in the zone Det. We'll be okay if you can do that. Nats win 3-2 and force game 5!
Hey Mark, Nice meeting you yesterday--I'm the guy with the twins. Anyhoo, ask Bryce why he's given up the eye black and the stirrups--He's lost his swag. He's got tostick with what got us here.
Was very sorry to have missed the gathering, but my husband didn't get out of work as early as hoped, and y'all had dispersed by the time we arrived. If anybody else missed, or is up for meeting Insiders who couldn't make it, stop by the picnic table behind 312 about an hour before game time today.
Maybe this can be a grand stage for Det to have his coming out party as a top of the line pitcher...
Of course, it would be nice for the offense to get their sh*t together...
Things seem bleak after watching two straight beatdowns, but all we need is a win today and we'll actually be a heavy favorite to win the series. Detwiler is an underdog to Lohse, but barely. But if this goes to Game 5, Gio at home will be a decent favorite over Wainwright. The Nats can do this. A decent game from Detwiler and a few hot bats today and we're back in the driver's seat.
I am still of the mindset this is bonus baseball. I'm still thrilled and glad to be in Nats Park for yesterday's 1st ever home playoff game in 79 years.
Considering the average lifespan, there are many die-hard DC baseball fans born after 1933 that have passed and couldn't enjoy this. We are fortunate to have experienced this and my guess is no matter what happens today, tomorrow or the next day, there will be much more post-season baseball in the coming years in Washington, DC!
The weaknesses of this team get maginified in big games just like the stengths.
Davey will "Live by the sword & die by the sword". The difference with Davey and Joe Girardi is that Joe pulled ARod for a pinch-hitter last night in Raúl Ibáñez and he hit a game tying 9th inning HR and stayed in the game to hit the walk-off HR in extra innings.
Some players thrive in October and others can't. The Manager's job is complicated as he has to win but also has to build towards the future. Edwin Jackson isn't part of the future while Espinosa is.
I agree with a lot of the previous posts that there is some randomness in post-season, and in such a short best-of-five series, to determine which is the "better" team, and anything can happen.
But the fact remains...October baseball is different. Some players rise to the occassion. It reminds me of that ad with RyanZ. "If you don't want to be the guy in that situation, maybe you're in the wrong line of work".
It takes a special kind of person to excel and lead when the situation calls for it and your team needs it the most. We haven't seen enough of that in the last 3 games. We need it today.
As my 11yo son's coach yells out to the infield before our pitcher throws "WHO WANTS THE BALL!"
(yes, I know fielding isn't the problem, but you know what I mean)
The Nats and Detwiler cqn do this.
If the As can come back from an 0-2 deficit to the Tigers, the Nats can come back from a 1-2 deficit to the Cards. The As, I believe, are an even younger team than the Nats, and their rotation is a chewing gum and baling wire operation, of late, compared to the Nats, who have been set for months.
Step it up. Excuses are for losers.
The Nats did a Meet & Greet with Frank Robinson before the game and then Phil Wood & Frank Robinson did a Q&A. There were about 200 people that were there and no media around. My friend videotaped it and hopefully he will upload it.
I'm glad the Nats pulled this off to get Frank Robinson back here. It turns out he was already set to be in DC for an autograph show this weekend but just the same, I'm glad they did it.
(new posted again!)
natsfan1a said...
Will watch for you, Wonk. I even made a (cheesy little) sign just now. :-)
Excellent! Thanks! Yesterday I was walking around the 312 benches asking for "Nats Insiders" and the first couple of tables I asked didn't know what I was talking about. (They said, "well, yeah, sort of" and had a blank look on their face).
But I'll recognize NatsLady if she's there. And I'm easily recognizable -- I have a fairly significant salt-n-pepper beard.
There is no hot pitching involved when Morse has the bases loaded and he swings at a slider that falls 2 feet away from the plate.
That's not necessarily true. Morse has been around. He batted .291 this year. Sometimes a good pitcher can set up a good batter and fool him badly. Sometimes it's good pitching. Sometimes it's a f**-up by the batter. It happens. That's why the best batters make outs two out of three times.
But before we put too much blame on Morse, Espi, et al . . . (how come nobody's blaming Harper?) . . . let's not forget, too, that our pitching -- ranked #1 all year -- gave up 20 runs the last two games. And gave up 26 runs in three games against the Cards on the last weekend of the regular season, too.
And then the Cards finished the regular season by taking 2 of 3 from the Reds -- the NL's second best record time).
The Cards are on a roll, and the Nats aren't. Tough combination.
Glass half-full sign of the day: my ESPN iPhone app notes that the Nats are slight favorites at -110.
I will try to catch yup to Mark and gang today... I hope Nats snap out of this, I would really like to go to a game 5 too
Wonk, i agree to a point... but I think the Nats have to play well today, no more excuses
If Det can go 6, i would think Mike G would follow, next would be Clip and then Storen. I do not want to Stammen again period or for that fact Burnett... I think i would rather see Gorzo,,,, ugh...
Ghost Of Steve M. said...
I am still of the mindset this is bonus baseball. I'm still thrilled and glad to be in Nats Park for yesterday's 1st ever home playoff game in 79 years.
Considering the average lifespan, there are many die-hard DC baseball fans born after 1933 that have passed and couldn't enjoy this. We are fortunate to have experienced this and my guess is no matter what happens today, tomorrow or the next day, there will be much more post-season baseball in the coming years in Washington, DC!
I'm with you on that. My attitude is (or I try, at least): get joy from the team where/when I can, but not get bummed when the team fails.
The very fact that I even have a home team to root for is a great thing, and one that none of us should take for granted. On top of that, we've seen a patient GM build a team from two consecutive 100+ loss teams to a team with the best record in baseball in just a few years. (Not every team has smart management).
And on top of that, they did it the "right" way -- building through youth, building a solid foundation that ought to give us lots of winning seasons, and playoff chances for years to come. And we might have two once-in-a-generation players (Stras and Harper) who are both exceedingly young.
And on top of that, I was able to bring my daughter to DC's first post-season baseball game in 79 years.
Yep, Steve, you got that right: this is all "bonus baseball." Most folks thought that 2013 was our year to contend. And here we are, in 2012, and there are 22 other teams that can only wish they were still playing now. The Nats have given us lots of joy, and I expect it to continue for years to come.
Pappy said...
I agree with a lot of the previous posts that there is some randomness in post-season, and in such a short best-of-five series, to determine which is the "better" team, and anything can happen.
But the fact remains...October baseball is different. Some players rise to the occassion."
You can't just declare something as a fact and have it be so.
There are a couple players who don't deal well with pressure, but by and large any differences in performance between regular season and postseason are just random chance.
Here's my evidence: Everyone agrees that with the possible exception of Carlos Beltran, our generation's most revered clutch playoff performer is Derek Jeter. Here is Jeter's regular season slash line: .318/.382/.448. Here's his postseason slash line: .310/.375/.469. Same guy.
Here's another: 23 months ago Cliff Lee was the epitome of a postseason pitcher after taking the Phillies and then the Rangers to the WS. Here are his three postseason starts since October 27, 2010:
Game 1, 2010 World Series: 4.2 IP, 8 hits, 6 ER, took the loss
Game 5, 2010 World Series: 7 IP, 6 hits, 3 ER, took the loss
Game 2, 2011 NLDS: 6 IP, 12 hits, 5 ER, took the loss
It's all a myth. There are a small number of exceptions but by and large these guys are the same in October as they are in April-September, and most differences can be chalked up to small sample size.
YOU CAN DO IT DET!!!!!!!
I went to the CBS link on the Nats, there are some sick people out there based on reading some of these posts and i blame the national media for fanning the flames.
My seats were in the lower bowl yesterday, and I didn't make it to the park in time to stop by the 312 tables, but I'll do so today on the way to my regular seats in 314. I'm coming from work so I hope folks will hang out until at 3:30 if they can.
I'm keeping my expectations low today. But I have hope that Det will step up and someone, anyone, will get a hit with men on base. What has happened so far on that score has been pretty darn embarrassing.
Also, last night's games make it abundantly clear, once again, that it ain't over till it's over. The Nats have won 2 straight games against a single opponent 29 times this year. We can do this.
There are a couple players who don't deal well with pressure, but by and large any differences in performance between regular season and postseason are just random chance.
Totally agree. Look, just two weeks ago the Nats were playing the Cards in St.Louis. Nats were fighting for the division title, Cards were fighting for the wild card. Sell out crowds going crazy.
Why should that have been much different than the very following weekend? Same place, same team, same sell out crowds going crazy, both teams fighting to advance in post season.
Bowdenball,
I unnderstand and agree that with enough data points, (a players's) post-season statistics will return to their average. In fact, as I write that, I realize that is probably true by definition.
But Raul Ibanez's hits last night are now embedded into his averages. But there is no doubt he "rose to the occassion" last night.
I have a good feeling about this game today. After Desmond I put Detwiler second in players that have improved their game this year.
wonk
But before we put too much blame on Morse, Espi, et al . . . (how come nobody's blaming Harper?) . . .
Believe me, I have stated that the O's Machado has totally out classed and out played Bryce, not even close. Bryce should be embarrassed!
alexva
Desi is a PRIME TIME STAR and Nats best player period
DC Wonk, thanks for that. I was also one of those that thought 2013 was the year. I don't want to say 2012 is a throwaway because when you get to this point you want to create your own carpe diem.
To me Strasburg is not the debate here as I consider him an injured player, it goes back to last off-season and the players that were chosen to comprise this team.
I've got high hopes for today. The offense has struggled to score runs lately, but they have been hitting the ball well. It's just a matter of timing and a few clutch hits - for which they are well over due. Det is a quality pitcher more than capable of keeping us in this one. If he can get us to Clip and Storen I feel good about our chances.
not to change the subject, but gang...Raul Ibanez... am I the only one who thinks there may be a just a slight use of the ole roid with him, lol
Don't forget to get plenty of rally napkins from the dispensers today. Those red towels will be good for wipng down bikes, etc.
Back to what got us here.
I am not a big Detwiler fan. Nevertheless, I'm a fan today. Reach back and show the team why you were a first-round pick, Ross. Show the world why Strasburg is not the only Nats pitcher!!! Show 'em, Ross.
And the rest of yoo's guys, get some RBIs, get some RBIs.
Vegas is on our side (barely).
make your bets
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/odds/moneyline;_ylt=AuJJP7FcoXIpYdVNrMnic_c3WaB4
I wish Hrod was on the playoff roster because Davey could show a sense of humor if Det gets bombed and we are losing 8-0, by putting in Hrod to close, just for old times sake... I would laugh at that
"It reminds me of that ad with RyanZ. "If you don't want to be the guy in that situation, maybe you're in the wrong line of work"
In the "completely missing the point" department (me, that is)....what Zim actually says is "Wrong line of business"...and that commercial has driven me crazy all year. (The only good thing about the season winding down is not having to hear it again.) Wrong line of work. Wrong business. Either is fine. But "Wrong line of business"...nails on a chalkboard...since March!!
Since there has been all that gloom and doom talk here, I decided to go watch the funerals of the Giants and A's, since the media had declared them both dead. Low and behold, they have risen from the grave and are alive! A's got 4 hits off the Tigers' "lights out" closer.
I would like to call attention to Boz's recent column on playoff baseball. This ain't the regular season, never will be. One example: Yankees '06. Won AL East by 10 games. Won ONE playoff game. Done. (Winning pitcher that game, CM Wang.)
NatsLady said...
I am not a big Detwiler fan. Nevertheless, I'm a fan today. Reach back and show the team why you were a first-round pick, Ross.
on that note, Bryce needs to show why he is the best MLB rookie and not Machado who is totally out playing him in post season and making big hits and plays
mick, I'm not sure I'm ready to go that far on Desmond but will say that if I need one guy at the plate, right now, with the game on the line he's the one.
typo, try again
Oldguy.... excellent point, however, in 20o6 Yankees fans already had 50 plus championships, its a little tougher here to deal with, lol
@Oldguy: "One example: Yankees '06. Won AL East by 10 games. Won ONE playoff game. Done." Um...If you're drawing an anaology, wouldn't the Nats be the '06 Yankees -- comfortably winning the Eastern division, with only one playoff victory to show for it?
I'm just hitting the reset button again today. Leaving work early, taking Metro to the park and being thrilled by the buzz of the playoff crowd and the sea of red in the stands.
This team has bounced back before and can do it again. Det has thrown some great games this year against some good teams. He can do it again today.
GO Nats!
Wonk, Mick, and 222, will watch for you.
b47bffc0-13ae-11e2-a778-000bcdcb8a73 said...
"It reminds me of that ad with RyanZ. "If you don't want to be the guy in that situation, maybe you're in the wrong line of work"
In the "completely missing the point" department (me, that is)....what Zim actually says is "Wrong line of business"...and that commercial has driven me crazy all year. (The only good thing about the season winding down is not having to hear it again.) Wrong line of work. Wrong business. Either is fine. But "Wrong line of business"...nails on a chalkboard...since March!!
October 11, 2012 10:19 AM
Totally agree. I posted on that after they first ran it. Typical MASN as they probably wrote the script for him.
How's simply "should try something else".
Never trust MASN although FP really is the man and I think genuinely a fan of this team and I don't mind a homer who does it with true feelings. I saw Carpenter hanging with the Cardinals guys and I know his roots start there but FP really has become a part of this team.
The guy stood there, standing behind the last row of the Presidents Club almost the entire game as a fan. You can tell a lot when observing.
One example: Yankees '06. Won AL East by 10 games. Won ONE playoff game. Done.
A better example.
Best record in baseball last year: Phillies, won 102 games.
Bounced in the first round by a wild card team.
The Cards.
Looking on the bright side, if we lose, then Rizzo would really be under a lot of pressure to bring in experienced talent. It appears the clubhouse has been severely damaged by the Strasburg affair. He would need to turn it around next year or find himself a new job. Peric mentioned Price, which would be a great pickup. The question would be what combination of players we could cobble together. Maybe our top pitching prospects.
But the fact remains...October baseball is different. Some players rise to the occassion."
You can't just declare something as a fact and have it be so.
There are a couple players who don't deal well with pressure, but by and large any differences in performance between regular season and postseason are just random chance.
But it is a fact. Some players do rise to the occasion, either by performing at a higher level than they ever have before, or (if they are normally a high performer) by putting out their best performance. They step up. Other players do not, by putting out a performance that is less than what they are capable of. Maybe it's bad luck, small sample size, nerves or whatever, but the fact remains. They do not step up.
Over the course of this series, of the starting lineup and pitching staff the only ones who have stepped up consistently or even at all have been Ian Desmond and Ryan Zimmerman. The others might as well have stayed home. The bench stepped up in game one, but really that was their only opportunity so far.
DJB, if you think Rizzo, and for that matter every GM in baseball is not under a lot of pressure every year, you have not been paying attention.
As to Price, look what Gio cost us. Multiply that times two for Price.
The guy stood there, standing behind the last row of the Presidents Club almost the entire game as a fan.
How much do they charge for those Presidents Club standing room tickets? Do you get to stand by the buffet line and look over people's shoulders too, begging for scraps?
Steve,
Your comments today are bang on. You too DC Wonk. You are able to (it's not easy) to keep perspective and a big picture view. Mostly people look at the last 2 games and want to overhaul the batting order, the roster, the GM, the manager and the ushers.
Mick,
Your comments re Harper illustrate exactly what I say in the previous paragraph; you are talking about a player who baseball unanimously expects to be one of its top 2 or 3 players for the next 2 decades. Do we really need to pass judgments based on 2 games during his rookie teen age season?
I don't often agree with FW. But October baseball, playoff baseball IS different. The schedule, the off-days, the number of interviews, fans who never cared that much before--it's just different. It's still baseball, and the players need to remember that, but it's definitely different.
I predict Det pitches a good game and our bats come alive. We win this one in a blowout. Baseball is a game of averages and its time for the game to swing back the Nats way!
Does anyone need tickets to today's game? Work conflict came up and I can't go. They are 4 lower level outfield seats. Selling for face value. $240 for the 4 tix.
NatsLady said...
I am not a big Detwiler fan. Nevertheless, I'm a fan today. Reach back and show the team why you were a first-round pick, Ross. Show the world why Strasburg is not the only Nats pitcher!!! Show 'em, Ross.
And the rest of yoo's guys, get some RBIs, get some RBIs.
I certainly wasn't a Detwiler fan and he won me over with getting his head in the game and seizing the opportunity he had after Wang was injured.
Do I think Detwiler is an Ace? No I don't but I think as I have thought for a long time that he has the potential.
Today could go a long way in Detwiler's ascending in this rotation especially given 3 failures by the starters before him.
To put more pressure on him then he is feeling probably is not fair.
The Nats failure at pitching in this postseason has been the approach, scouting, and planning and of course execution. I didn't need the Cardinals fan sitting behind me to tell me over and over again that the Cardinals hitters sit on the fastball and mistake pitches
NatsLady said...
I don't often agree with FW. But October baseball, playoff baseball IS different. The schedule, the off-days, the number of interviews, fans who never cared that much before--it's just different. It's still baseball, and the players need to remember that, but it's definitely different.
October 11, 2012 10:49 AM
Add to that the demands of their families which can be a positive and a negative.
Almost all of the players families are here for the games and outside of Werth and Zim who live here, don't underestimate the constraints from visiting families and changing your routine.
Davey has a history of doing well in elimination games so game on!
Nats are slight favorites to win this, according to Vegas.
MLB odds
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/odds/moneyline;_ylt=AuJJP7FcoXIpYdVNrMnic_c3WaB4
Nats batters might think about swinging at more first pitches. Seems like the longer they are in the batter's box the tighter they get.
to the time to step it up crowd, it's not a light switch. it's not just do it. it's not try harder. it's not be more focused
Gene Tenace-1972 7 game WS-.348/1.313OPS/ 4 HRs
Gene Tenace-35 other October games-.110/0 HRs
I guess he only decided to step up that one time
NatsLady-
According to the odds you posted we're slight underdogs today. Our negative number on the moneyline is smaller than the Cardinals'. That means that the matchup is so close that you have to bet more than you'd win on EITHER team because of the house cut, but you'd have to bet more to win $100 on the Cardinals than on the Nationals.
Close your eyes guys and swing the bats. The law of probability is with you. Amen.
Speaking of things I didn't need to hear over and over again, around about the 7th or so, the little boy behind me started repeating, "Mom, all the Nats fans are leaving. Mom, all the Nats fans are leaving." Then it was "Mom, even that baby is leaving." (ed. note: The baby was not leaving under his own power, but rather on his dad's shoulder.). Rather embarrassing to see that exodus, particularly with a national telecast. I was in the upper deck (403), and noticed that the Infield Gallery remained full throughout the game. I salute you. :-)
I didn't need the Cardinals fan sitting behind me to tell me over and over again that the Cardinals hitters sit on the fastball and mistake pitches.
I see a 5-2 win today, really. Det will pitch great, he is basicly Davey's project as he was the first player that he demanded from Rizzo. He always pitches great when I'm there and I'll be there today.
The interesting think about Mark's comments (That season-long performance earned Detwiler a spot in the Nationals' postseason rotation, and now it's earned him the right to start a win-or-else Game 4 for his team.) is that Stras shutdown is why he is pitching now, nothing else. I'm not debating the shutdown, just that is the reason the Det is in the postseason rotation.
Agree and concur with Ghost.
One caveat I would HATE ti see Angelos laughing his ass iff at the Nats at Boog's barbecue un rhe playoffs while the Nats are home. C'mon Davey you know you would squirm at night thinking about it!
Success at the pinnacle of any professional sport is primarily mental. Golf and baseball share some interesting parallels. You take Mickelson, who, besides Tiger, had the best "stuff" in the tour. He won plenty of tournaments, but tended to "yip" in the pressure-packed majors. Pitchers are similar. Someone can have great stuff, but once the mind starts racing and the pulse quickens, he misses his spots. If he just can't find it in pressure situations, you can say he "yipped." Mickelson eventually won a major, but only after several years of frustrating chokes. Our pitchers have collectively choked. We now know what their mental makeup is. Det has been the mnost mercurial of our pitchers. The chances of him hitting his spots are very small. However, he's never been in this situation, so you never know. Either way, a team has both talent and mental makeup. You can develop the former, but it is much harder to develop the latter. That's why this offseason is so critical. Rizzo has assemble good talen, but talent alone does not make a winner.
to the time to step it up crowd, it's not a light switch. it's not just do it. it's not try harder. it's not be more focused
Gene Tenace-1972 7 game WS-.348/1.313OPS/ 4 HRs
Gene Tenace-35 other October games-.110/0 HRs
I guess he only decided to step up that one time
Exactly!
Sometimes a guy gets lucky (e.g., JZ hitting a homer), and only after the fact we end up concluding "he stepped up."
Light hitting Al Weis hit .215 (in 100+ games) in 1969 for the Mets (two HR's all year -- his personal best). But he hit .455 (5-for-11) in the WS with a clutch HR. Did he "step up"? Or was he lucky? I vote for the latter.
In 1978, during the famous Yankee-Red Sox pennant race, Bucky Dent batted .071 during the last crucial five games. Did he "step it up?" His only hit was a 3-run homer which turned the game around, propelling the Yanks to beat the BoSox on game 163 of the season. That was luck.
Just get past this obe series boys! Det can do it! And I think Bryce jinxed himself looking like Elvis. Who fears Elvis Bryce? You gave the Cards somethingvto laugh ar. You became the clown question.
Now go out and shiw 'em they nade a huge mistake. Its time for a teenage 3 homerun game as toucwill be 20 in a few days. Not Elvis, the Hulk. SMASH Bam Bam! SMASH!
Tcostant how do you know whether they'd pick EJax over Det? Det was the better pitcher as a starter? It just might have been 2 righties and 2 lefties with Stras.
Success at the pinnacle of any professional sport is primarily mental. Golf and baseball share some interesting parallels.
Some of that's true, but not entirely.
With golf, if you "just miss", it's still a good shot. You're 12 feet from the pin instead of 8 feet. In baseball, it's usually all or nothing. Batters can't control a whole lot once the ball is in play.
A hard grounder to the infield -- it's just luck whether it's right to the 3b or SS, or in between them. No batter can direct a ball that well. That's why BABIP is so darn consistent with so many batters and pitchers.
Look at Bryce. He's had some really good at bats in games 3 and 4. A lot of pitcher per at bat. He (or somebody) hit it to the warning track yesterday -- he just missed the bat-ball-sweet spot by a millimeter. He also hit one very hard -- right to the CFer. EJax's first run surrendered was to a two out soft single just over the shortstop's head, and to a grounder that found it's way between RZimm and 3b that turned into a double. It could have just as easily been a hard grounder to third.
As for pitchers -- yes, some choke (see, Rodriguez, Henry), but, some just have bad outings. Sandy Koufax lost games from time to time. Even in a WS. He didn't choke.
Morse hit a couple if deep balls that required leaping catches. They just havecto get to Lohse early abs that means Werth and Bryce. SMASH Bam Bam. SMASH! Just do it!
That's why I'm not down on Bryce. First, he has historic levels of talent, so much so that his numbers are good even while he's still learning the game. He hasn't even put a full year in the minors. Batters run into bad luck, no doubt the same case in golf when a ball lands in a divet or drips two inches into the tall grass. However, what we are seeing are pitchers consistently missing their spots - not even close. Gio walks seven batters, for instance. They are also missing these spots at the same time, the first or second innings. This is clearly a choke. The butterflies in their stomachs mess up their mechanics, or cause them to overthrow, etc. Moreover, they are not as young as we all think. They are 26, 27 or 28. We don't have a Baumgardner or Kershaw on our team. You can say that Stras is still learning his position, but the others don't have that excuse. Jackson, most definitely, does not have that excuse, and we now see why he has been on three different teams.
Other than the crappy peanuts they sell at the park, I have nothing to complain about this season. This team exceeded all expectations and has been tremendous entertainment.
Folks, you are complaining about too much head on your beer or not enough icing on your cake. Or kicking the cat because you didn’t win the lottery
The season is a marathon. The first series is a sprint. The NCLS is survival one game at a time. It takes a special team … and a lot of luck … to go through all that
There is a lot of work that needs to be done in the off season. The Nats raised the bar. Expectations will be higher in 2013. I expect, in curly W’s and L’s, they will even take a step backwards next year. Youth has a way of doing that. But I expect they will be better prepared for a run in October.
But, for now, blow the head off that beer and raise a glass to the Nats, for this year and many more years to come.
Cheers
A DC Wonk said...
As for pitchers -- yes, some choke (see, Rodriguez, Henry), but, some just have bad outings. Sandy Koufax lost games from time to time. Even in a WS. He didn't choke.
October 11, 2012 11:35 AM
Yep, Koufax has the lowest postseason ERA ever and he did lose in the 1966 WS because the other pitcher held the Dodgers to less runs.
The most epic post-season toe to toe game I can remember seeing was last years deciding Game 5 in the NLDS from Carpenter vs Halladay. Halladay gives up a triple to start the game and loses 1-0. It was a battle. Both pitchers attacking. One pitcher had to lose and on that day it was Halladay.
Carpenter pitched a complete game shutout and Halladay went 8 innings of 1 run baseball.
Why is Desmond still batting 6th?
To continue, the idea of peaking at the right time is a myth. The truth is teams lose games more than they win them. Baseball is 80-90% pitching. As the season progressed into September, the pressure heightened, and the outings deteriorated accordingly. Rizzo, in a strategic error of monumental proportions, believed the pressure of a pennant race was not enough and decided to add even more by pulling the pitcher with the best stuff. That is why I feel Rizzo has a lot to answer for. These are still relatively young minds that can be molded by success or failure. Chokes tend to be contagious. I've always said it would be a success to me even if they lost the series. It's the manner in which they could lose it that is worrying.
They can win one game. They have already done that once, they can do it again.
Then they get a winner-takes-all game with Gio starting, at home, Friday night, full house. That would be very cool.
That is why I feel Rizzo has a lot to answer for.
Indeed.
Two 100+ loss seasons, followed by increasing wins by 10, then by 11, then by 18 to get the Nats up to 98 -- all without signing expensive aging one-and-done players, and doing it mostly with youth and great draft classes to give a good foundation.
Rizzo will be happy to answer for that.
As for Stras, I guess they could have held him back more in the beginning of the season.
You know -- like the Braves did with Medlen.
BTW, how'd that strategy work out for them, troll?
Enough with the Strasburg, already! The guy was toast by the end of August, for crying out loud. If he were still pitching, you'd be ripping him a new one for walking 7 guys and giving up 3-run home runs, saying Gio should have started the first game.
DJB one pitcher dies not make a team. Your heroes the Cards did pretty well without their ace Carpenter. And have done well without Pujols proving that what you say is bilge water. Again.
Back to the Bandwagon blogs for you along with Fear and Ignorance! You don't like the Nat's building philosophy you don't like young prospects ... Pls run over to the Orioles blogs play in traffic ...
Rizzo did fail monumentally in not getting the Time Machine Willie Mays for center field, like I suggested back in February.
Oh, wait, he may have done something similar at that. Nevermind.
So Boz posits in his column that maybe taking Strasburg out of the No. 1 spot in the rotation, messing with the "natural order" of Stras, Gio, Znn, E-Jax, Det, has caused the other starters to be less comfortable in their roles. He even says Davey acknowledged that that might be an issue:
"Could the change of roles be a factor now?
Johnson acknowledged it was possible 'but it is what it is. It’s no excuse.'"
The problem with that theory is that Davey already swapped Stras and Znn after the All Star break. And he made other changes to line up lefty starters against Atlanta.
At least McCatty was direct in saying Boz's theory is a load of bunk:
“'Nobody’s worried about that. It doesn’t bother them one bit,' McCatty said. 'The day you pitch, you’re the number one starter. That’s all.'”
Sure sounds like Boz, like Rosenthal, started out with a theory and went looking for quotes he could use to support it, probably with leading questions. Notice that there's no actual quote "acknowledging" that it was possible.
If Detwiler goes into tonight's game and uses his changeup and breaking pitch along with moving around the location of his fastballs, he can be successful. He has to challenge the Cardinals in and not let them extend their arms.
Throwing 75% fastballs most likely won't work against the Cardinals.
In contrast, Chris Carpenter who really didn't have his best stuff got out of jams with his best stuff and throwing mostly off-speed in jams. Carpenter featured 5 pitches yesterday using his entire repertoire.
Carpenter threw his cutter 31% of the time and his changeup & curveball 24% of the time and his 2 fastballs 45% of the time.
Contrast that with Edwin Jackson who basically threw sliders and fastballs and as they say "the fish weren't biting" as his command was off.
Its hard to believe that Edwin didn't see his success inside in the strike zone as he was killed on the outside of the strike zone and only threw 3 pitches above the strike zone and never changed the eye level. He had no balls in the upper 4 inches of the strikezone.
Again, it goes back to scouting and hitting your spots. Clearly the Cards hit his mistake pitches but they were also hitting his outside pitches as he got too much of the plate.
Guess what, no different than the 1st 2 games. Against Jordan Zimmermann, the Cardinals did expand their strike zone outside the strikezone which Detwiler should try to do.
A DC Wonk said...
"That is why I feel Rizzo has a lot to answer for."
Indeed.
Two 100+ loss seasons, followed by increasing wins by 10, then by 11, then by 18 to get the Nats up to 98 -- all without signing expensive aging one-and-done players, and doing it mostly with youth and great draft classes to give a good foundation.
Rizzo will be happy to answer for that.
As for Stras, I guess they could have held him back more in the beginning of the season.
You know -- like the Braves did with Medlen.
BTW, how'd that strategy work out for them, troll?
October 11, 2012 12:02 PM
Well said. The Braves? They are sitting at home. The Nats? They are still playing.
Even if the Nats season ends this week, its still a huge success and the creme rose to the top while the coffee grounds fell to the bottom and the middle area is well defined.
Clearly you can see the 3 areas that need to be improved which is more than you can say for most teams.
The only issue I have with Rizzo is the advanced scouting and how that was communicated to the coaches. Were the Nats too focused on the Braves? Its possible but there should have been plenty of scouting the Nats could have done in games 1 and 2 to translate to Edwin's game which then comes down to execution.
I'll be leaving for the game around 1 and will look to stake out a picnic table behind sec. 312 sometime before 3. I will be sporting a red hoody with interlocking DC logo and a red "Washington" script warmup jacket (assuming it's cold enough for that layer). I will also have a small Natsinsider sign, which I wrote on the back of an old 106.7 handheld fan. (Necessity is the mother of invention, or something like that.) Hope to see some of you there.
Go, DET! Go, NATS! (Especially with runners on, but, you know, either way, solo, whatever works for you.)
*That's for sure because my husband can't go today and thus his getting out of work early isn't a factor. My boss is guaranteed to let me out early. In fact, she's going to the game with me. In fact, she *is* me. Yeah, that's right. I'm the boss of me. :-)
Can you imagine a baseball player having 3 hitless games in a row. The horrors.
If you add in the other 162 games, Harper is hitting .265 or something, but that doesn't make good copy.
Sect222, thanks for the link and I agree with you. Everyone is still trying to sell papers.
Like I said, look at the players and the execution and the preperation and possibly back to the scouting.
Everyone is always looking for blame after a big loss. I was critical on Sunday after a Win and the reason I was is you can't be satisfied with poor quality and guess what, it carried into Monday's game and again into yesterdays. The Nats deserved the Win on Sunday, but they didn't play well except for a few players. I am waiting for an ultimate team win, pitching, hitting and defense.
If I were in the Nats clubhouse I would be giving the press a big F-U and winning this game. Let's hope they feel the same. Start off in the first inning, give Det a 4-run lead and go from there.
I have taken the pepcid. I am ready for this. Det will win.
Ghost,
It is unimaginable to me that the scouting was not accurate or complete; after all we played the Cardinals 7 times in September.
I am on the side of poor execution; in other words I thing JZimm and EJax had the information of how they should attack the Cards but could not execute the pitches.
BTW,
I have to point out that as wild as Gio was on Sunday (I wanted to wring his neck) he still managed to avoid a big crooked number and kept the Nationals in the game long enough where they had a chance to win.
This is a characteristic of Gio; he is extremely volatile and you knew that his nerves would get the better of him but he is also tough as nails and he doesn't give in.
I refuse to comment on anything Stras because I agree with Ghost; as far as I'm concerned this was a season ending injury and that's that.
JD, I would tend to agree with you that mostly poor execution but you always have to keep scouting up to date even though I agree there is very recent data. Why did JZim throw 78% fastballs and EJax throw 92% sliders & fastballs and throw outside?
The Nats desperately need Harp, Morse and Espi and Suzuki to get clutch here.
OK, Section 312, picnic tables. I'm Willie Gandébol!
JD, Gio avoided the big inning because he got the Cardinals to expand their strike zone many times swinging at bad pitches. It worked to his favor. He walked 7 and could have walked several more if not helped by Cardinals swinging at ball 4's.
Section 222 said...
So Boz posits in his column that maybe taking Strasburg out of the No. 1 spot in the rotation, messing with the "natural order" of Stras, Gio, Znn, E-Jax, Det, has caused the other starters to be less comfortable in their roles. He even says Davey acknowledged that that might be an issue:
"Could the change of roles be a factor now?
Johnson acknowledged it was possible 'but it is what it is. It’s no excuse.'"
The problem with that theory is that Davey already swapped Stras and Znn after the All Star break. And he made other changes to line up lefty starters against Atlanta.
The order of pitchers in the rotation has nothing to do with it. Boswell's theory has merit. Until Strasburg was shut down, he was THE MAN. The other guys didn't have to worry about being THE MAN. They just had to worry about their next start. The Strasburg shutdown pushed each one of them one step closer to having to be THE MAN. Some of them were up to the task (Gio and JZim, mostly) and others weren't (Det and EJax). It's not the only reason things played out the way they did, but it's a factor. Davey acknowledged that it might have been. But as he said, it's not an excuse.
Let's put it in terms you might be familiar with. You're happily singing sotto voce accompaniment to the castrato in your barbershop quartet when word comes that they're going to shut him down before your next big gig. You're telling me your sack isn't going to tighten up just a little bit at that news?
Ghost,
I think that most power pitchers will throw around 80% fastballs. Our pitchers are not finesse pitchers and you have to agree that they had a very good year overall. I think that he problem with JZimm was location and also some very bad BABIP luck.
EJax on the other hand really irritated me because he was beaten by the bottom of the order; you have to be tougher than that; once you get through David Freese you have to find a way out of tough situations; you can give up a bleeder through the infield or a bloop single but you can't have an 8th place hitter with 1 home run all year go deep on you.
Mark, I totally enjoyed meeting you in person yesterday. Nice of you to take time from your extremely busy day to talk with all your imaginary friends. It was just great. You are super too us. You're like the Nats: better than we deserve!
As for Det, I'm all in. His stuff is commanding, his presence is great and I think he's matured tons during the season. Great time to give us six great innings and turn it over the 'pen.
I want to see us get a quick early lead. To me that's the key. Enough of playing from behind.
Have to work the night job this evening, can't make it to 312 picnic benches. But I've got tix for tomorrow night. See you all then.
I DO NOT WANT THIS SEASON TO END.
Continue the emotional meat grinder, to steal Mark's phrase. Make some noise for me today. See you all tomorrow evening.
I hate the Cards, but my Dad has been a fan for close to 70 years. I took the position initially that shutting down Stras was a good idea, and got into it with my Dad, who took the opposite position. One thing about Cards fans is they know baseball. He pulled out a "spray" chart for Stras from his amazing game against the Mets, and then studied most of his starts. He told me that Stras is the only pitcher on the staff with unhittable off-speed stuff. In fact, the stats guys at ESPN rated Strasburg's off-speed as the most unhittable pitch in baseball - even more unhittable than the Dickey screwball. My dad's opinion was that JZim and Det only have about two pitches, and JZimm doesn't even have an off-speed pitch. His two-seamer, when on, has late life, but his slider is not great. Det has even less. He thought Gio had the sweeping and 10-6 curves that are perhaps the best in baseball. He's a top-flight number 2. His point being that in the playoffs, when a pitcher may not have his best stuff or be nervous, you need at least three good pitches. Otherwise you rely solely on power, which is only effective if you are locating. I pulled out Zimm's ERA, which was amazing at the time, and he just said October is different. He is right. Stras, even when nervous, has enough stuff to compensate at least a little. Remember, batters are nervous as well. Gio's choke was the table-setter because he does have the repetoire to be successful in October even when not locating his fastball. That is how he could miss his spots so badly and still give up only one hit.
The thing I hate the most is all the renewed Strasburg chatter from the chattering and writing "experts". Let's break out to an early lead and keep the crowd in the game. The Nats can win this one and get back in the driver's seat.
Speaking of which, would be happy to see Mark and Mrs. Z if they can make it, but will understand if they can't.
Mark, I totally enjoyed meeting you in person yesterday. Nice of you to take time from your extremely busy day to talk with all your imaginary friends. It was just great. You are super too us. You're like the Nats: better than we deserve!
JD said...
Ghost,
I think that most power pitchers will throw around 80% fastballs. Our pitchers are not finesse pitchers and you have to agree that they had a very good year overall. I think that he problem with JZimm was location and also some very bad BABIP luck.
EJax on the other hand really irritated me because he was beaten by the bottom of the order; you have to be tougher than that; once you get through David Freese you have to find a way out of tough situations; you can give up a bleeder through the infield or a bloop single but you can't have an 8th place hitter with 1 home run all year go deep on you.
October 11, 2012 12:45 PM
Excellent analysis. JZim slices thru the Cards in the 1st inning. 1st batter of the 2nd inning hits a shot at Ryan Zimmerman and he couldn't handle it. I think it rattled JZim immediately and like you said the unlucky BABIP didn't help. I still think he showed too many fastballs and while he's a power pitcher, you can't throw Beltran 5 straight fastballs without showing him a slider or an off-speed.
Bowdenball takes the prize. Human beings are simply not wired to believe that many, if not most events around us are random. Lose two games in a row? There must be a huge problem.
How about the Cardinals are equally good and perhaps the best team in the NL when you look at run differential and injuries, given the Nats no longer have Strasburg. I would be willing to bet the Cards are, in fact, better than we are without our best pitcher. It still doesn't mean we won't win the next two games or that there is anything wrong with the manager or the players.
Ghost,
I have a sneaky suspicion that JZim is in play today.
JD, I think for sure tomorrow but you could be right since Stammen probably isn't pitching today.
I like how Bruce Bochy pulled out his secret weapon in Lincecum who came up huge off of their bench.
Its a do or die game as we know.
I heard no lineup changes today, I was hoping for at least Desi moving up to #5 spot and at most Lombo. Neither happened. But in Det I trust. Prediction 5-2 Nationals. Get your tickets for game 5 before the crazy price increase after this is final.
Feel, you've come up with some crazy analogies, but that one takes the cake. Not even worth a response.
Tcostant, like I said, Davey will "Live by the sword and die by the sword". He is sticking by Espi and you hope Espi finds a way to reward Davey.
Davey has been loyal to so many of his players and look how Desi has repaid him.
Time for Bryce, Morse, Espi and Suzuki to step up here in the post-season!
peric said...
Tcostant how do you know whether they'd pick EJax over Det? Det was the better pitcher as a starter? It just might have been 2 righties and 2 lefties with Stras.
The fact that they paid EJax $11M for his postseason exp. Plus after I wrote this, I read Boswell's article at lunch and he said the same thing about Det replaced Stras in the postseason rotation. In summary, I thought it and Bos backed it up.
To be fair, Gio did benefit from having a nuclear-powered spotlight. Easier to get swings and misses on hitters who can't see.
Jeez, it's cold. 57 degrees. OK, boys, pretend it's April and let's get the WIN.
JD -- re JZimm, while I believe you are correct, let's hope he doesn't need to be.
I don't post much but I have a few comments...I'll try to keep it short. And I'm not a glass half full guy either...I'm a GROUCH!
I was here when the Senators left DC ...a sad day indeed... I saw the Nats come and suffered thru their trials...grumping all the way! That said...
1. Win or lose today this has been a break out season for the Nats...
2. As much as some of the marketing people and strategy for the Nats can irritate me...Mike Rizzo and Davey Johnson have done a helluva job ...
This is a REAL major league franchise...Hats off to them and the Lerners for getting them and spending the $$ to make it work.
3. If we get knocked out of the playoffs...we'll be back!..soon!...This team was constructed to be in this position NEXT year and for several years to come. That they got here this quick is a testiment and a tribute to team management and players.
5. IMO ...As an old catcher...The pitching problems you are seeing are coming from BEHIND the plate...Check the records pre and post Suzuki!
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