Monday, June 4, 2012

Nats take chance on Giolito with 16th pick

Photo by Eric Dearborn
Lucas Giolito might have been the No. 1 pick this year if not for injury concerns.
Updated at 10:24 p.m.

If healthy, the Nationals believe Lucas Giolito compares favorably to Roy Halladay.

Giolito, however, is not necessarily healthy. A potential No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft, the right-hander from Santa Monica, Calif., saw his stock plummet as questions about the state of his throwing elbow came into question throughout his senior season.

In the end, the Nationals chose potential reward over risk, confident enough in Giolito's arm to make him the 16th overall pick in the country Monday night.

"A top-of-the-rotation guy that you can get at 16?" assistant general manager Roy Clark said. "Our doctor reports were [that] everything's fine. It was a no-brainer for us."

It may have been a no-brainer for the Nationals, but those injury concerns were enough to scare off 15 other clubs who had the opportunity to draft Giolito and passed. The full extent of that injury isn't clear -- GM Mike Rizzo described it as "a strain of his elbow" -- but the Nationals say they had full access to his medical records and plan to have their own doctors examine him before putting him on a mound as a professional.

"We did our homework and our due diligence on his health and his makeup," Rizzo said. "And we decided this is the type of player, the type of stuff and the type of ceiling we want here in the Washington Nationals organization."

There's no question about Giolito's potential. Already 6-foot-6 and 230 pounds at 17, he went 9-1 with a 1.00 ERA and 78 strikeouts in 70 1/3 innings this season at Harvard-Westlake High School.

Giolito's repertoire includes a fastball that has reached triple digits, a power curveball and a changeup that scouts believe will be an effective pitch at the big-league level.

Does that sound like any current All-Star?

"A good comparison might be Roy Halladay when everything's clicking," Clark said. "So we'd take that."

Clark and scouting director Kris Kline first saw Giolito pitch last season, when his fastball consistently hit 98 mph. They noticed a dip in velocity this year, though he was still throwing 96 mph.

"You could tell something wasn't quite right," Kline said. "But we stayed on him. When he's 100 percent, he goes top three in this draft, so it's kind of a no-brainer."

Giolito has continued to throw off flat ground since his high school season ended and is currently throwing long-toss from 220 feet.

The Nationals have shown a willingness before to take flyers on players with medical questions. Last year they selected third baseman Anthony Rendon and left-hander Matt Purke; each dealt with shoulder issues during their final season at college.

Giolito has committed to UCLA, so the Nationals will need to convince him to sign, and they'll have to do it under MLB's new rules that set a cap for draft signing bonuses. The Nationals are allowed to spend a total of $4.4 million on their top 10 picks; if they go over by even a small amount, they'll be subject to taxes and the potential loss of future picks.

The Nationals also have a limited window to sign Giolito (who is advised by the same agency that represents Ryan Zimmerman, Drew Storen and John Lannan) with MLB's deadline moved up to July 13 from August 15.

Giolito is only the third high school pitcher drafted by the Nationals in the first round since the franchise arrived in Washington. The only others: right-hander Colton Willems (2006) and left-hander Josh Smoker (2007).

94 comments:

peric said...

I knew they would go there ...

HS players high ... college players low ... all because of the bonus cap and no 40-man roster rule. College players get screwed ... unless of course the HS players don't sign ... then the college guys who have no where else to go.

MicheleS said...

Another GIO.. Sign him up for the TJ now and get him here in about 3 years!!

hiramhover said...

Under the new rules, what do the Nats get next year if he doesn't sign? 'Cause that seems like a real possibility....

baseballswami said...

So get the guy his tj surgery right now, then he can get started. Why wait? Yikes . Anyone else surprised?

webmaster said...

The high school is in Studio city , not Santa Monica

Gonat said...

peric said...
I knew they would go there ...

HS players high ... college players low ... all because of the bonus cap and no 40-man roster rule. College players get screwed ... unless of course the HS players don't sign ... then the college guys who have no where else to go.

June 04, 2012 9:01 PM
____________________________

You knew it? Who knew he would still be available?

Its a big risk. Have to wonder if the Nats get him into Dr. Yocum for a consult.

djinFl. said...

A typical Rizzo pick. Might have been the first pitcher taken if not for the arm issue. The mlb crew seemed impressed with him, do the surgery and move on.

Gonat said...

MicheleS said...
Another GIO.. Sign him up for the TJ now and get him here in about 3 years!!

June 04, 2012 9:02 PM
____________________________

If he has TJ now, he would be in extended Spring Training a year from now.

MicheleS said...

Gonat.. I figure 3 years to the MLB Level...At the latest...

Gonat said...

MicheleS, 3 to 4 years I would agree if they handle it diligently. I just hope they are diligent about not wasting time.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

This kid is intelligent and unusually large for his age. He is a CAA kid where they like to sign quick.

Risks are prolonging medical opinion and signability.

SCNatsFan said...

As much as he wants to go to UCLA you have to think the injury pushes him towards signing; TJ surgery is about 92 percent but that 8 percent can cost him a whole lot of money

SonnyG10 said...

Kinda concerned about signability, since he has committed to college. I think it'll be hard to convince him to sign with the money we're allowed to spend. OTOH, maybe they can convince him because of his injury. The risk cuts both ways.

howl31 said...

Right, the kid can always go back to college for the education thing...

But, having already experienced injury, it could be pretty tempting to bag at least a few million dollars...

And, believe it or not, I think signing with the Nats has actually become a selling point... what 17 year old kid wouldn't want the opportunity to share a club house with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper...

No matter what, kudos to the organization, going after the top tier talent is a winning proposition in my book...

Water23 said...

I like the thinking. Take the best player available and we do need some players that will take a little longer to develop but have a high upside.
Gotta have some young blood for the 4th & 5th WS this decade!

GYFNG!!

Gonat said...

SonnyG10, most of these College kids have commited to College and its typically that way. The latter round kids like Ryan Ripken will probably go to College. 1st round HS kids usually sign and take the cash.

Section 222 said...

I love imagining Rizzo's pitch to Giolito as he tries to convince him to skip UCLA and sign with us: "Woudn't you like to be part of a rotation with Strasburg, Gio, Zimmermann, and Purke? This would be an amazing 5 man rotation -- the best in history, and you're the final piece. You could win a World Series ring your first year in the majors. If you wait till after college, or after your junior year, you'll go to the worst team in the baseball, and have to wait until it rebuilds to even sniff the playoffs. Come on kid, what do you say?"

peric said...

You knew it? Who knew he would still be available?

Its a big risk. Have to wonder if the Nats get him into Dr. Yocum for a consult.


Yup, but then it was always clear he would be available due to the injury concerns. Perfect fit given the Nats are TJ rehab central. Perfect replacement for AJ Cole. HS player doesn't get as large a bonus even before the rules change. Hard for Rizzo, Clark, et al to pass given their experience with JZimmnn, Stras, Purke, Solis, and some 'failures' like McGreary and Smoker ... nevertheless higher percentage of hits than misses.

Had fun predicting it on twitter. Honestly, though it totally made sense to me given what we've seen from Rizzo, Clark, Kline, etc? Totally logical. At least to me.

peric said...

"Woudn't you like to be part of a rotation with Strasburg, Gio, Zimmermann, and Purke? This would be an amazing 5 man rotation -- the best in history, and you're the final piece. You could win a World Series ring your first year in the majors.

Throw Bryce Harper (who even proven major leaguers like Prince Fielder want to play with?) yup ... precisely. Potentially could make the organization forget they lost AJ Cole pretty darned fast.

hiramhover said...

1st round HS kids usually sign and take the cash.

The key word there is the "usually"--this new system may shift our ideas of what's usual and create a new normal. The money he'd be turning down will look like what a much lower pick might have gotten last year (esp. since the Nats have a lot less money to spend than some other teams).

This kid goes to a wealthy high school and has a scholarship to UCLA. Turning down the Nats money this year would be a gamble, but I wouldn't be surprised if he takes it.

peric said...

This kid goes to a wealthy high school and has a scholarship to UCLA. Turning down the Nats money this year would be a gamble, but I wouldn't be surprised if he takes it.

He's the son of an actress who has had pretty regular work. Money will be important but I strongly suspect Rizzo convincing him (see Stroren, Drew) that he can fast track him to the majors with Stras, Gio, and Harper will get the deal done. Can he resist being a bigger star than mom?

JZimm's only fan... said...

When I heard he would fall due to injury, I knew the slide would stop at us. He fits the best talent in the draft category just like Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon. I had no concerns we would take a pitcher like Wacha (a future #4 at best type starter), and am extremely happy to welcome Lucas to the Nationals

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Hiram, there's more incentive for 1st rounders to sign now as cash won't change much in 3 to 4 years. A 3rd rounder certainly may wait and go to College and come back as a 1st rounder.

realdealnats said...

Whether his elbow makes it to a WS or not, I like the way Rizzo and this organization think and act.

Great PFB Balls of Fire said...

Wish my name was Giolito, or Blade, or Pontius

JZimm's only fan... said...

NOT THAT IT MATTERS BUT HES 6'6 230, not 6'3 210

Think young Roy Halladay build with a fastball that hit 100 this year before injury..

Gonat said...

Giolito's mom, Lindsay Frost, celebrated her 50th birthday today. Quite the celebration! With all his Hollywood lineage, no wonder he chose CAA to rep him.

Gonat said...

JZimm's only fan... said...
NOT THAT IT MATTERS BUT HES 6'6 230, not 6'3 210

Think young Roy Halladay build with a fastball that hit 100 this year before injury..

June 04, 2012 9:54 PM
_____________________________

Exactly, this isn't the 165 pound 6'5" Detwiler.

Gonat said...

Ghost Of Steve M. said...
Hiram, there's more incentive for 1st rounders to sign now as cash won't change much in 3 to 4 years. A 3rd rounder certainly may wait and go to College and come back as a 1st rounder.

June 04, 2012 9:50 PM
___________________________

I agree. I think any High School kid picked after the 1st round becomes a bigger signability issue as they could believe they can go to JUCO and re-enter the Draft and move up to 1st round cash.

howl31 said...

Actually, if you think about it... what does he have to gain financially by going back to school? You carry the risk of having a career ending injury... and, at the end of the day, if every team has a draft cap anyway, even if every at Stanford goes perfect and he winds up as the the 1st overall pick down the road, he could only get so much of that team's draft pot...

Right now, his leverage is at a maximum... where he can say "give me X amount of your draft pool or I'm going to Stanford"... where as once drafted as a college player, he has no choice pretty much but to sign...

Which, in a perverse way, makes it potenially more favorable from a financial perspective to sign when now when has the leverage... not to mention he is that much closer to getting the REALLY big money if everything turns up bananas after he signs...

Probably thinking about this too much, he either signs or he doesn't, either way, Go Nats!

hiramhover said...

Ghost

Getting picked at #8 ain't chopped liver, but remember, this kid's been hearing that he would have gone in the top 3 if healthy, and the suggested slot for those picks is 2-3x that for the Nats #16 pick. The Nats are further constrained by being in the bottom quarter or so of franchises in terms of their total draft "budget." A lot of folks thought Toronto might get him--even tho they were behind the Nats at #17, their total budget is about 2x the Nats.

Look--I'd like to see Rizzo figure out how to make it work. But until he signs on the dotted line, I'm curbing my enthusiasm.

hiramhover said...

Erm ... getting picked at #16 ain't chopped liver either, which is what I meant to say.

JZimm's only fan... said...

The new draft rules hurt us quite a bit long term, I hope they eliminate this bonus pool cap. It wont bring any kind of "balance" it will only minimize the advantages smaller market teams used to have when they try to build through the draft. The nats gave record deals to Harper and Strasburg while the redsox threw buckets of money at crawford and AGonz, they can still throw buckets; we should get to sign draft picks without worrying about penalties.

#4 said...

All this speculation about TJ surgery, why? The report is he had elbow soreness, not a torn ligament, right?

Gonat said...

Phillies just lost. NICE

Fear and Ignorance said...

Well, at least we have another Seinfeld reference to go along with Jimmy Van Ostrand, Buck and Davey. Grandfather was Mr. Ross. Come on Mark Z...thought you would be all over that one on twitter.

Sunshine_Bobby_Carpenter_Is_Too_Pessimistic_For_Me said...

Back to real baseball, Dodgers get a run off Papel-bum in the ninth to beat the Phil-thies 4-3.

I don't want to infringe on MicheleS's copyright but this deserves just a little, whispered, lower-case version of "wooo-hooo."

JZimm's only fan... said...

#4

He sprained his elbow its a 6-10 week reported injury. I dont think its a TJ severity injury yet

Catcher50 said...

No club may know more about youngsters needing TJ surgery than Nats.

Also, no one said that he had a full scholarship at UCLA. Remember that NCAA Baseball only allows about 11.7 scholarships, which are usually divided up among up to 27 individuals, with each required to get at least 1/4 full scholarship. Don't ask.

Also, it's my understanding that the draft amounts will be further restricted, beginning next year, so that this is probably Giolito's best shot.

baseballswami said...

Gonat - now if someone would just beat the &^%$#@ Fish!

Gonat said...

Baseballswami, Fish and Braves play for a 3 game series.

Gonat said...

Last few draft picks have received comparisons to JZim and Drew Storen.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

They are not saying TJ surgury, but we are experienced in the area, so that is OK.

All the reports I heard was that the Nats got way over value for their slot, that he will take most of the pool money, but is worth it.

Mayo on MLB network says he might have the highest upside of any pitcher in the draft, he said sort of a combination of Halliday and Verlander. He is not 18 yet, and pitching 100 mph. sign him and get him some innings at fall ball this fall, and put him hagertown to start season next year, and work his way to Harrisburg.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Looking at pitcher above he is going to have to change his number, How about 57 to go with 27,37 and 47. (not counting Burnett at 17)

Unknown said...

"Section 222" made the absolute key point sign with the Nats now amd wear one or more rings within 5 years or play 3-4 years college and join the Astros with no ring ever . no brainer .

Unknown said...

"Section 222" made the absolute key point sign with the Nats now amd wear one or more rings within 5 years or play 3-4 years college and join the Astros with no ring ever . no brainer .

peric said...

McGreary got the Nats to play for his education at Stanford ... it really didn't pan out ... he couldn't progress major-league wise and go to school. Then he succumbed to TJ and had the surgery. I guess he's stuck in Vermont / XSTunless he retires.

Sunshine_Bobby_Carpenter_Is_Too_Pessimistic_For_Me said...

Two words of warning about this kid pitcher:

Josh Smoker.

Manassas Nats' Fan said...

Sunshine you could be right, or 4 others words from the other side

Roy Halliday

Justin Verlander

TIme only tells.

NatsJack in Florida said...

Josh Smoker developed serious shoulder issues. While once throwing near 100mph, it's taken 3 full years to get back to barely 90.

Elbow ligament issues are easily fixable these days.

I love the pick.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

NatsJack, let me also add that Josh Smoker was a small framed guy when they drafted him and there is always a greater fear of over throwing using the ARM/shoulder vs the lower body. Giolito is a big boy and bigger than Stras, Gio and JZim. If a guy is over throwing these days, better the elbow than the shoulder.

While there is no guarantee of future success, I think there is plenty to get excited about.

ChiefWJ said...

Kudos on the pick. Given the fact that this is a crapshoot, go for the highest upside. We're much better off hitting the jackpot occasionally and missing with the rest than going with safer prospects whose upside is a regular, not a star. Plus if he doesn't sign, isn't there a bonus pick next year (a la Crow)?

natsfan1a said...

Switched over to MLB Network last night just in time for the pick. One of the talking heads (can't recall, maybe Amsinger) used the "D" word in talking about what the Nats are building. I about fell off the couch. Not that I wouldn't be on board with that, just not used to hearing it from the pundits. :-)

NatsJack in Florida said...

Yes. I meant to include the size difference.

I've spent some time in Fall Instructs with Josh and gotten a pretty good background on his injury. Sammy Solis told me Josh was a legend in SoCal in high school.

Gonat said...

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/varsitytimesinsider/2012/06/baseball-lucas-giolito-is-upbeat-about-being-selected-by-nationals.html

Some more background on Mr. Giolito

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

NatsJack, Josh is a wonderful and humble young man. I hope he makes it to the Bigs.

On size, Gio is the smallest starter at 6'0" and 200 pounds up to Wang at 6'4" and 225 pounds.

In comparison, Detwiler is 6'5" and 190 pounds. I just believe Rizzo looks at Starting pitchers like race horses where pedigree, attitude, past performance and size all factor into his decision.

fast eddie said...

natsfan1a:
I assume the "D" means dynasty, not defense?

MicheleS said...

1A.. the "D" word - could have knocked me over with a feather when he said it, so let's hope it comes true! Don't want to count our chickens, because that's what the Yankees/Sox/Phillies have done and they don't have the results that they demand/want.

NatsJack in Florida said...

I was at my favorite watering hole last Friday evening talking with a friend who happens to be a Braves fan. We were discussing the Nats and how the expectations time table had been bumped up to include this year.

A guy in his early 30's sitting next to us chimed in that he was not at all suprised to see the Nats position this year. Said he saw it coming at the end of last year.

He then unbuttoned his shirt to reveal a Phillies t-shirt underneath and said "you guys are fixing to make my life miserable for the next 10 years."

All I could say was "I sure hope so."

fast eddie said...

I hate "off" days.
Only 10 more hours till game time . . .

Faraz Shaikh said...

draft is exciting too

baseballswami said...

Phils playing the Dodgers, hoping the Braves get hot and beat up on the Fish. Go Nats -- we really need to dominate the Mets. Can't wait until we have an echo in here - Go Zim Zim, Go Gio Gio!

NatsLady said...

If you want some laughs, go over here and read the comments. Here is a typical one:

BUT SCOOTER WON 17 GAMES. Scooters 17 games can kiss my @$$, I've always said he doesn't have what it takes and his wins were due to run support with a 4+ ERA.... Release Feldman or option him, he has no business pitching in the major leagues. He's been facing the M's and A's.... Trade Feldman for a low a ball player with a broken leg.

MLB Wrap Tex vs. Oakland

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_06_04_texmlb_oakmlb_1&mode=wrap#disqus_thread

Gonat said...

Read this headline from Sports Illustrated "Nats Steal Draft Spotlight"

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/330403

NatsNut said...

I'd actually feel better if Giolito had full-on ucl damage. It's more clearly defined and fixable.

#4 said...

If the Nats sign Giolito, and he's healthy, it sets up an interesting contrast to Harper. I saw some on the board saying that Gio could be in the big leagues in three-four years. The track record on having 20-21 year olds in a rotation is not good. They tend to burn out and not have long careers. Many cite old-timers like Bob Feller and others to refute that, but lots of those guys gave their arms three or four years of rest in the middle of their careers (at least from pitching) while defending our country in WW II. After being on the other side of this argument for many years, I've come to the conclusion that pitchers should not be work horses (180+ innings) until they are at least 23 or 24 years old. I just don't think the body is developed enough until then - even guys that are 6'6" 230 lbs.

This does not mean I think this was a bad pick. He's got great upside. I just wouldn't pencil him into the rotation for 2015 yet.

Gonat said...

#4, if Giolito came up in 4 years as a mid-season or September call-up, he would be 22 years old. This kid looks like he is 22 right now.

Figure him for full-time in the mid-2016 or 2017 rotation.

natsfan1a said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
natsfan1a said...

Eddie, yes, defense. MicheleS, definitely not counting my chickens yet.

NatsJack, great watering hole story. :-)

fast eddie said...

natsfan1a:
I assume the "D" means dynasty, not defense?
June 05, 2012 8:26 AM
MicheleS said...

1A.. the "D" word - could have knocked me over with a feather when he said it, so let's hope it comes true! Don't want to count our chickens, because that's what the Yankees/Sox/Phillies have done and they don't have the results that they demand/want.
June 05, 2012 8:26 AM

#4 said...

Gonat,

His birthday is on July 14. For comparison purposes, I believe one's listed age in the stats in one's age on opening day. Therefore, he'd be a 22 year old in 2017. I'm not saying he won't be ready to get big league hitters out at that point. If healthy, he will be. It'll just be interesting to see how the Nats handle him - particularly in contrast to how they handled a highly talented position player prospect like Harper. The track record on putting guys that young in a rotation is not great for their long term careers. Generally, guys get hurt, or their K/9 ratios drop precipitously by age 30. Even Feller falls into that category. Hitters are a different story.

Gonat said...

#4, part of the problem in the past with young arms is over-working them. The Nats clearly stick to a youth plan. This kid set himself apart in maturity and a frame that is already filled out at 17. Can you imagine if he has more growing to do?

Also, a new post from MASN with a pic of Giolito in a Nats cap:

http://www.masnsports.com/nationals_pastime/2012/06/giolito-pick-draws-rave-reviews.html

Gonat said...

How crazy is it that Giolito wears #27 and the number font and trim on the back of his jersey resembles the original Nats fonts of 2005 to 2009 plus that red W on his cap.

Coincidence, I think not.

NatsNut said...

LetsGoNats mentioned on Kolko's MASN blog that Giolito could mean "Little Gio". LOVE it!

Theophilus T. S. said...

On the side of Gioloto signing . . . He could go to UCLA but, with the UCL "strain," no one would consider him completely healthy next year at this time, anyway. (Is there a coincidence that "UCLA" begins w/ "UCL?") His college coach would face a helluva dilemma: (1) Pamper the elbow and have Gioloto pitch at 50 percent of capacity, thereby proving nothing, or (2) Do the typical college coach thing and overwork him (e.g., 130 pitches in 7 innings) and blow out the arm.

This is all wishful thinking but either outcome is good for the Nats. If Gioloto eats the whole bonus pool, in four years no one will remember who else the Nats drafted 2-10. (Does anyone really care who the Nats drafted after Strasburg?) If Gioloto doesn't sign, his money gets spread around the next nine guys, making up for the parsimonious bonus pool restrctions.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Gonat, good point that his age he may still have room to grow.

I also wonder if his injury was caused by throwing too much. Many times these High School kids are pitching every 3 days plus some then play Sunday travel team or weekend showcases.

Remember, this kid last year at this time in his Junior season of High School was thought to be the best amateur pitcher projected for 2012.

NatsNut, I know in Spanish that Gioito with no L is "Little Gio"

ChiefWJ said...

"(Does anyone really care who the Nats drafted after Strasburg?)"

Didn't they pick some guy named Storen?

Catcher50 said...

@#4...There is another difference. The "old timers" played other sports in the fall/winter. Most of today's players lock into one sport by the age of 8-10. They never really learn the difference between: "Oh, rats, this muscle is sore, I haven't used it since last December" and "Oh, S#%t this is serious, I've damaged something.

BTW, I've always thought that the "vacation" (yes I know flying a plane in combat ain't really a vacation) period was very good for a player's longevity. It allowed him to rest and heal. IMO, the year that Riggins took off allowed him to last as long as he did and be as productive as he was with the 'Skins.

Section 3, My Hitterish Sofa said...

Someone already mentioned "Gio-Light"--altho that would be in reference to age more than size. I don't think this kid is light anything.

Section 3, My Hitterish Sofa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Section 3, My Hitterish Sofa said...

Try that again:
Giovanni is Italian, not Spanish, but we could call him "Little John."

Maybe they could get Da Meathook back to play Friar Tuck.

ChiefWJ said...

"(Does anyone really care who the Nats drafted after Strasburg?)"

Didn't they pick some guy named Storen?

hiramhover said...

Can you imagine if he has more growing to do?

There's an upside to to that, for sure, but it's also a reason to go slow in developing him--those growing tendons, ligaments, etc. can be more susceptible to damage.

I wanted to add one more thing about what this pick says about Rizzo. In 2 years, he's now picked 3 guys who fell in draft position because of injury concerns. The fact that he's willing to go against conventional wisdom says a lot about his self-confidence as a GM and ownership's confidence in him.

Now, let's just hope it works.

NatsLady said...

From RotoWorld:

16. Washington Nationals - Luc Giolito RHP Harvard-Westlake HS, Calif.

By all accounts, this is a fascinating pick. The Nationals have never been afraid of taking risks, whether on talent or medical history. In recent history, that ideology has worked. Giolito was a potential No. 1 talent before a tender elbow shut down his prep career in March. Tests revealed no ligament or tendon damage, so this seems like a wise gamble by Mike Rizzo. Giolito, a 6-6, 230-pound monster, has hit 100 mph on the gun and has ace potential. Of course, Washington has plenty of stud starters on the roster, a group Giolito hopes to join in the next four years, even if he has to sit out the rest of the 2012 season.

NatsLady said...

Boz said it best. 70% of no.l6 drafts never make it to the majors. The upside is huge, the downside is, yeah, you might have signed some other (lower-ceiling) player with a 30% chance of making it, and making it as what--a .250 hitter or a middle reliever?

That's what happens when you pick at 16.

Section 3, My Hitterish Sofa said...

Well said, Nats Lady (and Boz).

Tcostant said...

NatsLady. I see in your RotoWorld post that they have this statement "In recent history, that ideology has worked". Do they give any examples? I can't think of any guys who fell in the draft because of injury who hit it big. Help!

JD said...

Keith Law on the Nats pick:

'I've said a few times that Giolito would likely have ranked at the top of my draft board had he been healthy all spring, and my outsider's understanding of his injury is that it's not that serious as elbow injuries go. The risk here may be more perceived ("Oh my God, you took a guy with an elbow injury") than real. Good for the Nationals for having the stones to take the best guy on the board, even with these perceptions and the threat of a tough negotiation for a bright kid committed to UCLA. If they sign him, he'll be worth it.'

Frediemac said...

If Giolito does not sign will the Nats be given the #17 overall pick in next years draft?

(Just like in 2008 when we didn't sign the #9 overall pick Aaron Crow and in the 2009 draft we got the #10 overall pick Drew Storen).

HAVE NOT SEEN THIS ADDRESSED YET

NatsLady said...

Freddiemac:


Teams get an extra year of protection for compensation picks for failure to sign draftees from the first three rounds. For example, the Blue Jays get the 22nd pick in 2012 after not signing No. 21 overall choice Tyler Beede in 2011. If Toronto can't come to terms with the compensation selection, it would get another one in 2013.

JamesFan said...

Signing him is the only issue I see. The Nats can't break the bank on one guy. However, the kid would take a huge risk in going to UCLA with an elbow problem. It's going to be an interesting negotiation.

SonnyG10 said...

Having already bagged Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon, it won't hurt quite as bad as it would have a couple of years ago if we can't sigh Giolito, or he doesn't work out. I'm liking this pick better all the time.

NatsLady said...

Tcostant, no idea. Just posted the quote as representative of what the chattering class is saying about the pick.

JD said...

They will sign him. Their recent history suggests that they know what they are doing in this regard. I love the pick because we have an exceptional rotation base for a few years to come (the top 3); you can fill the bottom 2 any number of ways so it's time to start building the next generation of starters because history shows that you can't keep everybody when they all become expensive so you have to keep developing new ones.

Rather than picking someone who will be a number 4 at best but will be ready soon they went for the big prize. I like it.

Tcostant said...

I saw this quote above: "For example, the Blue Jays get the 22nd pick in 2012 after not signing No. 21 overall choice Tyler Beede in 2011. If Toronto can't come to terms with the compensation selection, it would get another one in 2013."

While the first part is correct (you get a extra pick the following year if you don't sign the guy), but the next part is incorrect (...terms with the compensation selection, it would get another one in 2013).

You get a pick for one year only, if you don't sign the compensation selection you DON'T get the a pick the following year.

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