Tuesday, June 8, 2010

What to expect tonight

Photo by Mark Zuckerman / NATS INSIDER
Pitching in Washington won't be anything like pitching in Viera.
Well, the moment has arrived. After a long, arduous journey that featured a whopping 11 starts with two minor-league affiliates and probably one bump in the road somewhere (though it's pretty hard to find one) Stephen Strasburg at last makes his Nationals debut tonight.

And baseball has never seen anything quite like this.

I'm not sure anybody expected this. Sure, there figured to be hype, and there figured to be a buzz around this game. But the hysteria has really reached remarkable levels the last couple days. You can't watch ESPN for more than 10 minutes without some mention of Strasburg. Baseball Tonight is broadcasting live from the ballpark today. When do they ever do that for a regular-season game? MLB Network is sending out the "A" team of Bob Costas, Jim Kaat and John Smoltz to broadcast tonight's game against the Pirates across the country ... well, except for the D.C. and Pittsburgh areas. We get Bob and Rob on MASN2.

I think the magnitude of all this finally hit me yesterday, as national media members began arriving at the ballpark to write about the Bryce Harper-Stephen Strasburg back-to-back events. There will be about 200 media members credentialed for tonight's game, and among that pack include reporters from newspapers in New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago and Los Angeles plus plenty of others. This won't quite compare to the media presence for a World Series, but this is comparable to an LCS. All for one pitcher's big-league debut. Nothing has ever come close to matching this.

Now, of course, the question is how Strasburg will handle all this attention and how he will perform under the brightest of spotlights. So let's run through a few things you should and should not expect out of tonight's game...

You SHOULD expect... Strasburg to be unfazed by the pressure. I know this is a grander scale than he has experienced before, but this kid is all business when he gets on the mound. He takes his preparation seriously, he has the ability block out everything else surrounding him. I'm guessing afterward, he won't even be able to recall anything that was going on around him the entire evening.

You SHOULD NOT expect... Strasburg to pitch a complete game. He'll be restricted to somewhere between 90-100 pitches, as will be the case all season. The game's most-efficient pitchers can go the distance at that rate, but Strasburg isn't the most-efficient pitcher, at least not yet. If there was one thing to harp on during his two months in the minors, it was his penchant to rack up high pitch counts. Don't be surprised if he doesn't even make it through the sixth inning tonight.

You SHOULD expect... Strasburg to get a lot of groundballs. The biggest fallacy about him as a pitcher is that he's a guy who blows hitters away and notches gigantic strikeout totals. While that was the case in college, that wasn't the case in the minor leagues, and in some ways it's by design. Strasburg is a sinker-baller. His two-seam fastball has great downward movement, and that leads to a ton of groundballs.

You SHOULD NOT expect... Lots of strikeouts. Again, this isn't a guy who's going to challenge Roger Clemens, Kerry Wood and Randy Johnson's record of 20 K's in one game. Look for probably one strikeout per inning on average, still an impressive rate.

You SHOULD expect... A devastating breaking ball. Strasburg's best pitch isn't his fastball, good as that heater is. His changeup (which registers about 90 mph) ain't too shabby, either. But his best pitch is that slider/curve hybrid (I'm going to start referring to it as a slurve). It comes in around 82-85 mph and it breaks sharply down and away from right-handed hitters. It's just devastating. I've still yet to see anyone make solid contact on that pitch, and I don't expect to see the Pirates do much with it tonight.

You SHOULD NOT expect... Strasburg to hit 100 mph on the radar gun. As much as everyone's going to be drooling over the possibility, his velocity has actually come down a notch since his college days. Again, this is by design. Strasburg doesn't throw his four-seam fastball all that much, instead sticking with the two-seam sinker. A 97-mph pitch with sink is far more effective than a 100-mph pitch that's straight as an arrow.

OK, it's prediction time. Here's my predicted final line for the phenom...

5.2 ip, 5 h, 1 er, 1 bb, 6 k, 95 pitches.

I'm interested to know what you all think. Will Strasburg be lights-out? Will he be terrible? Will he be somewhere in between? What would be considered a success in your mind? What would be considered a disappointment?

27 comments:

Uncle Atom said...

A success would be him not getting hurt and the team getting a curly W.

Brian said...

5.1 ip, 4 h, 2 er, 2 bb, 6 k, 92 pitches

Bowdenball said...

Mark, your expectations are higher than mine. I would be absolutely thrilled with that line

I'll say 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 89 pitches. A terrible Pirates team helps him out by swinging early in counts and getting caught stealing once or twice.

If he leaves with a lead, I'll be happy. The Nats could sure use a curly W in front of a sellout crowd rooting almost entirely for the home team.

bdrube said...

What Uncle Atom said. The win is the main thing. Anything beyond that is gravy. :)

An Briosca Mor said...

For those keeping score tonight, here's early word on the Pirates lineup:

...“We expect it to be electric,” left fielder Lastings Milledge said of the atmosphere. “Are we expecting it to be different than anything else? No. We face good pitchers all across the league. We know he’s going to bring it, but he’s got nine tough guys to get out.”

Translation: Milledge isn't starting tonight.

N. Cognito said...

2 ER - that's an easy prediction.
How many UNEARNED runs?

Anonymous said...

"MLB Network is sending out the "A" team of Bob Costas, Jim Kaat and John Smoltz to broadcast tonight's game against the Pirates across the country ... well, except for the D.C. and Pittsburgh areas. We get Bob and Rob on MASN2."

What a disapointment! Costas might very well be the best baseball broadcaster in the business. Crappy and Dribble might very well be the worst!

Corey said...

Wait, Baseball Tonight is here for Strasburg?

Silly me, I thought they were covering Lastings' return to the District.

Theo said...

Will be most interested/gratified by the number of times he strikes out Lastings Milledge.

Anonymous said...

Mark said:
..how he will perform under the brightest of spotlights.
Wait, when did tonight's game get moved to Yankee Stadium?

PS: Can we call it a "Clive" and not a slurve?

K.D. said...

What I would like to see: no errors behind him and a few early runs from the Nats to let him relax. A couple hits from Pudge would be icing on the cake but, other than that I hope he has fun and the Nats win.

Michael J. Hayde said...

Let's hope he doesn't do the "Nats' new ace" thing: plonk his first two batters and get tossed!

JayB said...

I'll be at the game but FIOS does not carry MASN2 HD so really sucks for them.

A DC Wonk said...

I distinctly recall that Strassy said that his adrenaline effected him in his first AA start, and he said something like "it's always like this for me when there's a big 'first'" As a result, he got behind in the count more than he wanted to.

(Does anyone else remember that?)

So, anyways, that's what I'm nervous about . . .

Sec$39.99 said...

CLIVE!! Perfect!
And Strasburg's new nickname!

I figure a basic QS should be a fine intro, but for all the national press will try to pump that up into the Marichalosphere, most casual fans watching will shrug. Watching a bunch of groundouts is not riveting, for the average viewer.

Anonymous said...

FIOS doesn't carry MASN2, but I do find most of the MASN2 broadcast NATS games on FIOS channel 1.

Anonymous said...

As long as they get the big curly W, it's a success in my mind. GO NATS!

natsfan1a said...

You SHOULD expect... At least one random SS "fan" to turn to another and ask "So, who's this Ryan Zimmerman dude at 3rd base?"

Anonymous said...

Sure, FiOS will carry the game in standard def. on channel 1, but considering FiOS advertises heavily on MASN HD and MASN2 HD, it is totally ridiculous that they provide MASN2 only in standard def.

natsfan1a said...

A QS would be cool, but I don't really have any specific expectations as far as the starting pitching tonight. A curly W in the books would be great.

Anonymous said...

Never fails. The game isn't on in Canada. Huge news in the US and I can't even see the game here.

Special Ed Haraway said...

Can't Believe MASN is running this on MASN2 that means anyone who has FIOS won't be able to see on HD,because they are running the Orioles game on MasnHD BOO-O-O-O !!!

dj in Fl. said...

SS only needs to do what good pitchers are supposed, give the team a chance to win.
This would be a great night to have a couple of the bats wake up and everyone keep their head in the game so we have error free ball. This is the night they can increase their fan base for the rest of the year, and beyond.

Anonymous said...

I totally agree about FIOS and MASN 2. I mean, as far as important games go, with the Orioles completely out of it already this season and the importance of this particular Nats game, you can't tell me MASN couldn't swap the games so that FIOS customers could see the game in HD.

Anonymous said...

7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 94 pitches

And a 5-2 win after Capps loads the bases in the ninth and walks one in..

Anonymous said...

MASN2: Mr Angelos Screws the Nationals Squared.

Anonymous said...

Looks Like Stasburg did better exceeded even your expectations, 14 strikeouts and he hit 103 on the gun.

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