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At 64-64 through 128 games, and with over a month left in the season, the Nationals have plenty of time to make a run and finish with a winning record. But just topping the .500 mark isn't enough to call this year a success, especially given preseason expectations to win a World Series.
As a result, Bryce Harper is dealing with life on a struggling team, really for the first time ever. His junior travel team won two national titles, his high school team dominated and his college team went 52-16 the only year he played.
Harper admits it is a bit different going to the ballpark every day when you're not in the thick of a division race.
"Mentally it's grinding because we're not winning right now," Harper told Mark Zuckerman in their weekly sit-down on Wednesday.
"It's kind of tough. But you just gotta go in every single night and try to play hard. Try to win ballgames. Especially late because we want to try and have the best last month."
Being on the .500 Nationals is as close as Harper's been to playing on a losing team. He is so used to winning, he can't even remember being on a team that wasn't good.
"Earlier in my career, when I was younger? We never lost," he said. "We were the best team in the country. We never lost, ever. I've never been on a losing team or anything like that. It's never been tough or anything like that. I've never lost, ever."
Harper's had his own ups and downs this season. After beginning the year with a scorching start in April, he hasn't been the same player in the months since. He ran into walls in Atlanta and Los Angeles back in May, causing bursitis in his left knee, and spent five weeks on the disabled list.
Despite returning from the DL on July 1, Harper still feels the effects of his knee. He may not be always playing in pain, but his timing and feel at the plate still aren't where he would like them to be.
"My first month was pretty dang good," he said. "It was kind of tough after I hit the wall, it kind of went downhill from there. I haven't felt as strong everyday. I've been struggling a little bit, trying to get into rhythm again and trying to do things the right way."
Harper remains in the Nats' lineup on a daily basis as they move through the last week of August. The Nationals have 34 games remaining and Harper hopes to finish the year strong.
"We still got a month left, so we're going to keep trying, keep grinding, and see where we're at at the end."
82 comments:
Harps is still a little shy of walls as he demonstrated last night going after that foul down the RF line in KC.
True,he was set to have a great season until the LA wall.
Hope he's learned the difference between aggressive and reckless???
Wait'll next year!!!!!
The kid is a winner. If there were 25 guys with his attitude they would never lose.
He'll be back up with the September call-ups in a week, but why Cedeno and not Krol being added to the roster this past week???
"Ghost Of Steve M. said...
Nats average 6.0 runs per game in wins and 1.78 in losses."
Easy math since the Nats are 64-64 that they are averaging 3.89 runs per game. Easy to see that if the Nats averaged 1 more run per game they'd be in 1st place.
Of the 12 losses against the Braves, 7 of them were either 1 run losses or a tie going into extra innings.
Besides the horrible bench, the situational hitting overall has been the teams biggest problem. You saw last night how good the situational hitting was and overall in the winning streak.
Doc, unless Krol replaces an injured player he must meet the minimum time in the Minors before being called back up.
Doc, Once a player is sent to the minors, they must remain there for at least 10 days before being recalled (with the exception of if they need to return due to an injury).
Thanks Nats 128.
Figured it was some technicality like that.
We want Krol, ASAP!
yeah you have, Harper. As far as I remember, you have yet to get a hit against Andy Pettite or is that put ball in play?
anyone watch Phil wood and Mike Wallace today?
wow...they both say Soriano was a mistake to sign
and that one will be gone next year
Tanner Roark a HUGE bright spot!
Probably right, mick.
Next time Borass comes knockin', Rizzy should be walkin'! (Unless the client's name is a lot like Harper)
A lot of dumping on Soriano. He was a vast overpay but the best available closer left on the market. The Nats needed a new closer. Until 2 weeks ago Soriano had some a Top 5 save %.
I'm of the belief he has a minor injury.
Nats over the last 14 days. No. 1 in the NL (excluding pitchers):
.298/.379/.444
Nats in August. No. 4 in the NL
.285//.360/.443
Nats since the All-Star Break
.271/.338/.423
Nats before the All-Star Break
.246/.308/.396
That is some difference.
Kurt Suzuki starting today in Maryland.
NatsLady, Jayson Werth, Ramos, and almost everyone else at .250 or better.
I cant believe you people. we need 34 wins to tie last years record. I think we could get 32 of those. cmon its not over. Was it over when the Germans bombed PEARL HARBOR?
That can't be. Zimmerman is washed up and Span sucks. The internet said so.
SWM, look at the change in natitude yesterday Down 6-0 the Nats scored 8 unanswered. August average runs scored is 4.85.
This is what was needed all season. Even Davey has woken up but it's Rizzo asleep at the switch. Davey needs a slick fielding outfielder which means the weak link has to go. Davey needs another bullpen arm.
Yes, Werth and Ramos and--Last 14 days (20 or more PAs).
Desi: .313/.365/.458
RZimm: .288/.393/.500
Span: .309/.356/.418
Lombo: .316/.381/.526
LaRoche and Rendon bringing up the rear.
Bullpen arm Davey can get from Syracuse (Mattheus). Krol when his 10 days are up.
Outfielder, Rizzo let Bernadina and DeJesus go, do you think he was too quick on that?
"Easy to see that if the Nats averaged 1 more run per game they'd be in 1st place."
******************************
Easy to see, maybe, but much harder to achieve. No team is averaging 4.89 in the NL. And to get there, the Nats would have to jump over 10 other teams in per-game scoring.
As the Nats scoring has improved a bit -- they're now 11th in the NL, having spent much of the year at 14th -- their runs-allowed average has declined to more than 4 runs/game. They're now just a tick below league average, giving up 4.07 per game with 4.08 being NL average.
Most significantly, they continue -- on average -- to allow more runs than they score. Thus, at 64-64, they continue to outperform their Pythagorean projection (61-67). I'm happy about that, of course, and continue to check the wild card standings, but I'm realistic enough to know that the odds of playing in October are mighty slim.
Like many of you, my sense is that this year Harper has played through injuries that would have sidelined many players for long stretches. I have a great respect for his talent and his professionalism. All this at the age of 20.
It will be interesting to see if the Fillies can fix Bernadina. They were well on their way to fixing Revere before he went down.
Germans bombing Perl Harbor, SWM?
You mean the ones that were dressed up like Japanese? Those sneaky Gerrys!
Eugene, excellent point. But 4.89 wasn't needed--
4.50 or even 4.25 would have sufficed for a lot of the season when the starters (except Haren and Detwiler) were going well. Now I think Gio and JZ are tired and inconsistent. Stras is a mystery, let's face it.
Movie quote from Animal House. Watch it, live it, know it. John Belushi. Google animal house Pearl Harbor.
Doc @ 1:16,
SWM paid homage to John Belushi (RIP) in 'Animal House' (much of it filmed around the U. of Oregon).
Zimmerman is not washed up but LaRoche may be. Like Harper Zimmerman needs to finish healing. Anyone want to take odds on Werth at age 35 repeating the same performance next season?
Span is one of the leaders on the team in total XBH. He has 9 triples and 24 doubles with 2 homers thrown in. BUT he still can't hit left-handed pitching and his OBP is still LOW at .314, which makes him a definite easily manageable hole at the top of the lineup. Last season Span hit 38 doubles with 4 triples. I don't think he'll match that. His percentage of pitches outside the strike zone and swung at is the highest of his career. Percentage of PA's ending in a walk the lowest of his career. He's NOT a lead off hitter by any stretch of Rizzo's imagination at least not the way Rizzo described his model.
NatsLady @ 1:17,
Agree completely that being number one in runs scored per game wasn't needed. You just need to be better than league average in both categories (and, obviously, the closer you are to number one the better) to pretty much guarantee yourself a playoff spot. Pittsburgh is managing to thrive while being a bit below league average in runs scored, but that's unusual. Atlanta is great example of how you don't have to have individual league leaders (with a couple of exceptions) to have league leading team averages in runs scored/runs allowed.
Correctomundo, SWM!
You can learn a lot of history from watchin' "Animal House".
Nats 128 assumed on the previous post that I paid attention to Storen's parents tweets. I neither tweet nor twit -- or whatever you call reading some other person's twitter/tweet. Apologies to Little Richard.
Da Braves are statistical misfits!
Wait'll next year!!
Since it's a while before game time and work is light, I looked at the teams ahead of us in the WC.
We have the best schedule in terms of under .500 teams.
Next is Arizona. However, they are only 1.5 games ahead of us and they have seven more against the Dodgers, who are aiming for the best record to get home-field advantage. ARZ also just lost JJ Putz to injury. If it comes down to us and them at the end of September (which I doubt), we have our destiny in our own hands and you can't ask for more than that. I think they will fall out of the race.
Of the three NL Central teams, Pittsburgh has a slightly easiar road than the other two, but they have to play away games in Texas. Opponents average .498
St Louis has the most home games left (20) but they have 4 games in Coors, always a crapshoot. Opponents average .511. If it comes down to us and St Louis, again, I'm happy (though not confident) if we have the result in our own hands.
Cincy has 3 against the Dodgers, but that's balanced by 3 against the Astros. They also have to go to Coors for 3 games. A lot will depend on which pitchers they get, e.g., do they face Harvey with the Mets? Opponents average .505
I've always seen Keiunta (Span's real first name - Denard is his middle name) as a 4th outfielder / defensive replacement type, which would make him a very strong bench player.
A simple check of his MLB stats at http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml will show that his OBP and average declined since his MLB debut.
However there is absolutely NO disputing the value of his defense over Morse's. I believe this is probably why the whole WAR (Wins Above Replacement) comes into play - as much as I absolutely love Beast Mode, and believe that trading Morse killed some of the fun of the game for the team - also a value - I would think that even with the hitting performance this year, Span grades out with greater WAR.
If the Nats can go after a guy like Ellsbury or Shin Soo Choo next year, no one would blame them, and Span could spell everyone (our own version of DeJesus). And frankly, I'll take DeJesus over Tracy for the same reasons if they stand pat.
I'd also see if I could get a deal signed with Haren for less than this year. If not, perhaps go hard after Matt Garza, as there will be no qualifying offer for the Nats to deal with.
Meanwhile, let's keep winning and staying strong. The remaining games will help define the character of this team.
Re: Current Nats' hero Ro-ark
Rizzo and his scouts have an uncanny ability at knowing what to pull out of the talent grab bag.
In Tanner's case he came unheralded a few years back for an aging SS. Who knew that he would pop up in the summer of '13 and do some great stuff???
Meanwhile, Mikey Morse was not in the Seatttle lineup yesterday. He was in the lineup on Wed and got a HR, but has been dealing with yet another injury for the last couple of weeks, this time his wrist.
NatsLady
Except for the Braves who have we played in the last 14 days that was any good. Now with the Braves losing Heyward and others we may get them the next time! In regard to Bernadina, it sure helps to get your timing when you get to play almost everyday like LaRoche. FP says you have to play to get your timing. It sure helped Moore, when he got sent down and got to play. Also, Lombo has done well considering how he has been used by Davey. You can sure tell he isn't one of his favorites. He has had stents where he has gotten two or three hits in a game and finds himself on the bench the next night. Just like last night. I sure hope he gets a chance somewhere else next year! If his name had been Espinosa he would have been and still be a starter. You know by watching all year, Davey has alot of favorites. I don't care what their salaries are, if you are not producing you sit!
Ellsbury, OK. If you want to go for the $$ and years, which I'm not sure you do.
Shin Soo Choo, I wouldn't bite. Too expensive and you don't want him in CF. He is just TERRIBLE there. You would have to put him in a corner and that would mean Harper in CF and I'm not a fan.
Yes, I grant the poor quality of the teams we have been playing. Still, hits are hits and we were not getting them against any teams, good or bad, earlier in the year.
With Choo you would be getting another long, expensive contract for an aging RF'er and we already have one of those. If you are dead-set against Span (I'm not), you could look at Ellsbury, but, again, I'm feeling a little burnt by expensive FA contracts.
NatsLady - what's the URL for your blog? Also, you think the Nats may weigh in on Jose Abreu? Wladimir Balentien is learning how to hit in Japan... you think Rizzo may get over Maya and get back to thinking International in the nation's capital?
Depot Master - here ya go (most recent game post. Post before that was series preview...)
Extreme Baseball
http://ladyandthenats.blogspot.com/2013/08/week-21-game-128-nats-royals.html
Too many typos, trying again.
(1) Abreu - apparently he can only play 1B. If the long-term plan is for RZ to float over there in another year or so, that would let out giving Abreu a 5-year deal, which he will surely get. If there is hope that RZim can end his career at 3B (as Chipper did, after all), you could look at Abreu. Unfortunately he will probably be gone to another team before we know.
(2)Yes, I think Rizzo will get over Maya (he already has when it comes to the Dominican). If the right player/situation comes along and IF Rizzo can feel confident of the scouting, he will bit. I don't know anything about the Japanese player you mention, and I have not got the feeling we have strong scouting there, as, say, the M's do.
The problem is you need more resources internationally than I think we have (except in the Dominican). Those resources are expensive and of questionable reliability. If he can develop good scouting in Korea, Japan and Taiwan I think that would be better than Mexico and Cuba.
However, in regard to South America (Venezuela, Colombia), I believe Rizzo has contacts and scouting there, as we have gotten several catchers through that pipeline. That might also be fruitful--again, a lot of it is word-of-mouth and family relationships, building up a trust level.
Bottom line, each situation internationally is different and you can't spread yourself too thin trying to develop them all. Pick a locale, learn the language, set up scouting and training, sign a few players with fair $$ and when they get to the majors they will spread the word that the Nats are a good organization.
That's okay, I don't do the tweeter thing either. That said, I don't think Drew's folks are doing him any favors with reactionary tweetering. He's a big boy now. Let him fight his own battles. Just my opinion.
Theophilus T. S. said...
Nats 128 assumed on the previous post that I paid attention to Storen's parents tweets. I neither tweet nor twit -- or whatever you call reading some other person's twitter/tweet. Apologies to Little Richard.
August 24, 2013 1:25 PM
In summary, I don't think you can say whether Rizzo will make "international" signings (unless there is an international draft). You have to ask, what individual regions will he target and what level of resources will he employ to reach a signing decision.
Doc said...Next time Borass comes knockin', Rizzy should be walkin'! (Unless the client's name is a lot like Harper.)
I dunno about that. I'd be pretty leery about signing a prospect named Dick Herpes...
Soriano was a huge Rizzo mistake. I doubt he's pitched a clean 9th inning all season.
I have been a fan of Drew Storen ever since we drafted him. He is now starting to lose some of his luster for me. If he is mad at Davey for taking him out, then shame on him. I don't blame
Davey for not trusting him to get out of that jam. You have to earn the trust of the manager and Storen has not done that yet. It was obvious to me Drew did not have sufficient command of his pitches last night. If Drew doesn't wake up and fly right, he's going to be traded out of here.
Does "I doubt he's pitched a clean 9th inning all season" equal a hanging curve? Who's gonna step up and hit that one out of the park?
That wasn't hard. April 1, 2013, first game of the season. Clean ninth inning.
There is actually a way to look this up. Soriano finished games with 3 or less batters faced seventeen times this season (all wins).
The last time was Aug 13 against the Giants.
Next question.
Sorry, one was the 10th inning (May 22) and once he had a walk and a double play (April 25).
I still think that Drew Storen will have a great career, but he has hit a wall right now. Even one of the games that went into the book as a good appearance for him last week he was the beneficiary of a very generous strike zone. If he had gotten that zone in game 5.... oh, never mind.
Off-topic, but one of the kids that Baltimore traded for Bud Norris, is LJ Hoes, a local from St. John's College High School in DC. Since getting a chance to start for Bo Porter he has been off to a great start with the Astros. Wishing the kid great luck. (Same for JMax after we leave KC).
On a completely unrelated path - was watching Top Gear UK today and wondered if Richard Hammond ever tours America for appearances. Looked it up and saw this picture: http://www.whosay.com/candacebailey/photos/156493
Is it just me or does she favor a certain sideline reporter?
He was pretty efficient, too. In all those three-batter games, his max was 17 pitches.
NatsLady, I'm trying to do this from faulty memory since I am on the road but didn't Soriano have a string of 3 out 4 clean appearances around the beginning of August?
8/2, 8/3, 8/10, 8/13 were "clean." I will expand it to four batters faced. Hold on.
Seam - right on about Hoes. Red hot right now. Haven't seen him play yet but I'm eager.
If you allow Soriano four batters, he finished 32 games, one was a loss for the team.
NatsLady and Just Wonderin':
Good job with that hanging curve, but where baseball is concerned you can pretty much ignore any statement that asserts an absolute (e.g., always, never, every time). And I guess that applies to most other things in life, as well.
Eugene, right on. I just wanted to use baseball reference for my own amusement.
negroleaguesmuseum @nlbmprez
@thisisdspan Can't begin to tell you how honored we are to have you, @IanDesmond20 & Scott Hairston visit today!
Here's how Soriano stacks up against the other 29 primary closers in MLB:
Save %: 22 out of 30
ERA: 26 out of 30
K/9: 29 out of 30
WHIP: 26 out of 30
BA against: 29 out of 30
So the stats show what we already know. He's not a strikeout guy, he gives up a alot of hits and runs, and he is well below his peer average in converting save opportunities. He may or may not be hurt, but he really isn't very good.
Davey might be right, maybe he did overuse Soriano (or he's injured). He's made 56 appearances.
In his first 16 appearances the team won. I remember thinking how reliable he was.
On May 12 he came in a tie game and lost it.
Right around June Soriano began to be "not good." Even when he got the save, he was facing more batters and throwing more pitches per inning.
FWIW, I've heard people saying that Harper bailed out Soriano. Not really. Soriano got a routine popup to shallow right. If Harper bailed out anybody, it's the coaching staff who had him playing no doubles against Bonifacio, who has no power. If he's positioned normally, that's a routine catch. Soriano did his job on that play.
Not defending Soriano's play as of late, just talking about that specific play.
However, despite these signs (less efficiency, more batters/pitches per inning), Davey didn't cut back on his use. That's probably because he had no alternative, with Storen unreliable and Mattheus screwing up. He did try using Abad for tie games--until Abad lost a couple of them in a row.
Charlie and Dave were pretty insistent that they think Soriano is hurt. Even when Soriano was "making things interesting" early in the year, he was keeping the ball down and he wasn't giving up home runs. He also wasn't walking people. Now everything is up and his command is spotty. He looks like first half Dan Haren out there right now.
To me, the bottom line is that if Soriano was overused, it was because the offense had so many low-scoring games and the rest of the short relievers (other than Clip) were not holding up their end. It's possible that Soriano could/should have gone on a Haren-type DL trip around mid-July, but he probably thought he could tough it out.
He's pitched 54.2 innings this year, which is on pace for 69 innings. He pitched 67.2 last year for the Yankees. Last year for the Yankees, he had a 2.26 ERA and only 3 blown saves. So I don't think he's being overused.
Not surprising, his SO/9 is way down. Over the last 3 years, he had 8.6 SO/9. In his career, he's averaged 9.2 S/9.
This year it's all the way down to 6.8. That is a HUGE difference.
DP, then you think it's injury? Or just age and decline?
No Werth or Rendon in the lineup today and Tracy is at 3B with Zim DHing. Why Davey?
NatsLady, thanks. Like Haren I think Soriano needs a 15 day break on the DL.
As predicted, Tracy at 3B, RZimm DH. How come I can read Davey's mind?
New post
Following up on Ghost's comment that they need to score one run per game more, I got curious as to how that arithmetic would look.
2013 to date they are 64-64, but their current Pythagorean W-L = 61-67, so they are +3 there, now.
They have scored 498 runs (3.89/g), and allowed 521 runs (~4.07/game, which would be ~660 over 162 games).
They have 34 games left. If they score at GoSM's suggested rate of 1 more than they have averaged to this point, that would leave them with ~658 runs on the season, or ~4.06/game.
Assuming that the defense stays the same (because Ghost didn't propose a change, just sticking with the premise here), that would be 658 runs scored vs. 660 allowed. They Pythagorean W/L for that would be 81-81, or .500, which is where they are now.
Which probably won't catch anybody.
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