Thursday, November 11, 2010

Zim's plea to re-sign Dunn

Ryan Zimmerman has been lobbying the Nationals to re-sign Adam Dunn for months. That's nothing new.

But each time the Nats' No. 3 hitter talks about their now-free agent No. 4 hitter, his message seems to get stronger. And last night after participating in the club's new uniform unveiling at Nationals Park, he made his strongest plea yet to bring Dunn back in 2011 and beyond.

"We've got to get Adam," Zimmerman said when asked what he'd most like to see the Nationals do this winter. "The presence he has in this lineup, the presence he has in the clubhouse, the consistency you get out of him ... if you take him out of the middle of the lineup, it's going to be hard to replace him. It's going to do a lot to our team."

Though there are a number of established first basemen on the open market -- including Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko and Aubrey Huff -- Zimmerman believes none are as sure of a thing as Dunn.

"You can get a guy who might have a great season, or he might hit 15 home runs and drive in 60," he said. "The thing you know with Adam is, he's going to hit close to 40 home runs, he's going to drive in close to 100 runs. He's been like that the last seven years. The hardest thing to find in baseball is a consistent player. And I think when you have one, and you have one here, it's kind of hard to believe you can't retain him."

Zimmerman said he's talked to Dunn "almost every day" since the end of the season. Though the conversation rarely is about baseball, there's no mystery about Dunn's preferred employer moving forward.

"He wants to be here," Zimmerman said. "He's a little upset that stuff didn't get done. But that was not the team's fault. You know how it is with that stuff. But now it's to the point where he goes to free agency. ... Obviously, it just makes sense for him business-wise and career-wise to at least go out and see what's out there. That's not to say he won't come back here, or he won't be here or he doesn't want to be here. But for him and his family, he's got to go out, entertain other offers and at least see what his real worth is."

Dunn, who has been free to negotiate with other teams since Sunday, is expected to receive interest from several teams, including the Tigers and Cubs.

Mike Rizzo tiptoed around the subject following the fashion show, but the GM suggested he's negotiating with other free agent first basemen while also dealing with Dunn.

"We're certainly talking with multiple options," Rizzo said. "We've got a lot of irons in the fire, and we're working on a lot of things."

As for the primary knock on Dunn -- his defense at first base -- no less an authority than a Gold Glove third baseman insisted it shouldn't be an issue.

"Ryan Howard makes a lot more money than him, and he's not winning Gold Gloves," Zimmerman said. "And I love Ryan. He's a great player. But nobody ever says anything about his defense. First base, there's maybe three or four guys in the big leagues that play good first base. I don't understand why Adam gets crushed on his defense. From the time he started playing defense in spring training until the time he ended the season, I can honestly say he's 10 times better."

56 comments:

Nate said...

Lose Dunn and tick off your franchise player in the process? Looks like Rizzo's aiming for the Daily Double. The only thing Dunn's defense cost the Nats was Ryan's Gold Glove, and he doesn't much seem to care. Here's to hoping Zimm wins at least one more GG with Pena at 1B before he leaves town in 2013.

joemktg said...

This Dunn issue is driving me nuts.

1) I cannot understand why the Nat's algorithm says that Dunn's defense is more a detriment than Dunn's presence at the plate which protects Zim. Who will protect Zim to the same degree as Dunn? Will absolutely have a negative impact on Zim's offense, as well as team offense. And this is a team that needs team offense.
2) So how long has Adam Dunn been playing 1B? One season? Does anyone think that he's not going to improve?
3) Dunn potentially has HOF numbers by the time this is over. Does the franchise really want to be myopic and not consider the long term benefits?
4) Yeah: sub Pena or Lee for Dunn. What's the net overall gain (offense plus defense plus protection in the lineup)? What does THAT formula look like? Not a rhetorical question!! Has anyone done this?

Zim's point about Ryan Howard is valid if not completely accurate. Dunn's overall net gain has got to overcome defensive liabilities, and I've got to think that with work, and someone coaching him up, he'll improve at 1B.

sjm105 said...

I have gone back and forth on the Dunn thing for months. My gut feeling originally was, its a no brainer, sign him. I have read all the comments pro and con and see both points but maybe the key point now is that our best player is actively lobbying management. I understand its a business but this really has to have closure soon and I hope he signs with us. There is no doubt in my mind that Desmond and Dunn will both improve in the field and that we have the potential to have an infield for the next 3 to 4 years (hopefully longer) that will rival most in others in baseball.

sjm 308 said...

On a point that has absolutely no relevance to anything, it looks like we are moving from left field(105) to 308 next year which should allow an old man the ability to track the ball off the bat. Only concern is that they have Newcastle Ale at the beer stands up there. Still get tickled at the posters at NJ who swear they will not go to a game until we are a .500 club. What kind of fan is that?

sjm105(308)

NatsJack in Florida said...

Good job in beating everybody to the punch this morning Mark.

Sure does sound like strong words from Z-Man and words Rizzo has to consider. I wouldn't want to be the one that loses Dunn, then has to confront your (very unhappy) stated "face of the franchise".

I honestly believe Zimmerman is speaking more about the clubhouse presence of Adam. His points on Ryan Howard are good, however he fails to mention the former MVP has driven in 135 or more runs 4 of the past 5 years and hit 45 or more home runs in those same years, all while leading the club to the playoffs and two World Series appearances.

Adam has never been to the playoffs and has only played on one team that managed a .500 record.

Don't get me wrong, I like Adam Dunn but his body of work is in stats only and has not generated the winning results we all so strongly desire (including Zimmerman).

I believe that the Nats have to increase their overall talent in all phases of the game so that they not only are "as good as the next guy" but can actually strive to be "better than the next guy".

I'm not sure Adam does that for us.

dale said...

Look, these negotiations are being run by Dunn's agent. Zimmerman is saying that it is not the team's fault and he understands the process. With Dunn's agent saying to him that we won't sign until we see what the open market values his contract to be then all the crying and grieving won't do a darn thing. Rizzo is doing the right thing by keeping all of his options open and so is Dunn's agent. It's a game for millions of dollars that is being played out in arenas other than baseball diamonds. When players start to pledge that they will give away their own expected salary increases in order to keep their friends on the team then I will give a lot more credence to these utterances. Supposedly, there is a 3 year offer from the Nats in Dunn's hands, if he truly wants to play with his friends he can make the decision to do so right now. Uhtil that happens, the "Sign Dunn now faction" can continue being in a state of misery and apprehension.

SpashCity said...

I think Zimmerman is spot on comparing Dunn to Howard.

How many times do you think Howard would have made the playoffs if he had been drafted by the Pirates instead of the Phillies?

How do you think having guys like Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley batting in front of him affected Howard's RBI totals, instead of Nyjer Morgan and Christian Guzman?

While I don't think Rizzo or any GM should listen to players regarding personnel moves, what Zimm says makes sense, and I think Rizzo is smart enough to see that.

I really think Rizzo is betting that his three-year offer to Dunn will be the best offer on the table. The deadline to offer arbitration is Nov. 23. Rizzo will offer arbitration, and Dunn will accept it, which could scare off other potential teams even more. Will Rizzo budge from his 3-year offer? Will Dunn give up and accept three years, instead of going to arbitration, getting the subsequent one-year deal and going through this whole "will he or won't he be traded" dance again next summer? I hope not.

3 years, $45 million.

Get it Dunn!

Anonymous8 said...

Mark - Isn't this really Dunn and his people taking Rizzo's 3 year $40 million deal or am I missing something?

Anonymous said...

Dale, I agree with you. There's an offer on the table for Dunn now. He and his agent are choosing to test the free agent waters instead. Nothing wrong with that. He and his agent did that two years ago too.

But you can't fault Rizzo or the Lerners for this. Dunn might take the Nats current offer in a couple of months after he realizes that no NL team can beat the Nats offer. Or some NL team might make a better offer and then Rizzo could increase his offer. But, it doesn't make any sense for Rizzo to negotiate with himself now.

Anonymous said...

It would be nice to know just what the 3-year offer was for. My guess is about $40M but we will not really find out for some time. Dunn will refuse arbitration because he really would not want another season of uncertainty. If either the Cubs or Tigers sign Dunn, the Nats will not get the early 1st round pick because both teams have their first round pick protected. All the Nats will get is a sandwich pick and that teams second round pick.
ML

Anonymous said...

To sjm 308-

They do (or at least did) have Newcastle up there and very close to where you're sitting. Enjoy.

Anonymous said...

The Tigers 1st round pick is not protected, per MLB Trade Rumors 2011 Draft Order.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings/

Anonymous8 said...

I just read that the Royals traded David DeJesus to the A's for prospects. He was one of the players I had hoped the Nats would pick up.

Andrew said...

On ESPN this morning, they had Zim's photo pasted next to Cliff Lee. The story was that Zim said in an interview that he was willing to give up part of his salary to get Cliff Lee to Washington!

Doc said...

Zim said it best, and he plays with the guy. First basemen aren't short-stops, and none of them, including Ryan Howard, get paid for acting like SSs. I doubt that Rizzo is a part of that phoney argument. Billl Ladson seems to think that he gets a paycheck to make it an issue.

And SpashCity is also right about Dunn's and Howard's Ribbies. Put Rollins and Utley in the front of your lineup, and even Wil Nieves will bang in a few.

Anonymous said...

only reason for not keeping dunn is if we intend to take the chance and hope we can convince adrian gonzalez to come here. i'm not sure that's a risk i'd take.

-longterm

Josh said...

Adrian Gonzalez is going to be a Red Sox... I can feel it. He has the right profile: criminally underrated All-Star position player who plays excellent defense and hits really well in a pitcher's park, and the Yankees already have Teixeira. Even if the Nats make him an offer, I doubt he comes here.

As for Dunn? We should have signed him back in spring training, though I remember plenty of posters here were talking about how he'd clearly gone downhill because he had a long homerless streak to start off the season. That's exactly when Rizzo should have signed him, when his value was lowest! Rizzo would almost certainly have agreed to a much better deal at the time than he did now, since it would be certainty in the face of risk that he might be declining. Instead, Rizzo basically did what the people online would have done, and waited until Dunn had shown that he was still pretty much the same hitter he'd been the previous seven years. That's just poor planning, plain and simple.

Anonymous said...

I have a hard time imagining the Nats letting Dunn go unless they have another 1B who is as good or better. Failing that, they have to find another position player who delivers about the same power and production. fpcsteve

NatBiscuit said...

Zimmerman is more likely to leave in a few years if the team has not improved enough to contend. Signing Dunn is not the imperative, winning is. I hope they sign Dunn, but I understand why they would not. And I don't think Zimmerman's feelings are a deciding factor. If the team improves and the next guy is not poison in the clubhouse, then Zimmerman will likely get over it.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
The Tigers 1st round pick is not protected, per MLB Trade Rumors 2011 Draft Order.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings/

My bad - I misread the same post. The Tigers pick is not protected so if Dunn must go, I root for him to be Tiger rather than a Cubs.

MLBTradeRumors is a good site to read. Nothing beats this site for Nats specific information but MLBTradeRumors is good for many things.
ML

Anonymous said...

Josh, your argument that Rizzo should have signed Dunn early last season has at least two flaws:

1) I don't think any GM would remain employed very long if he offered lucrative, long-term deals to players that are declining, especially when that player generated next to no interest from other teams one year before.

2) It takes two to tango. Adam Dunn and his agent have to agree to the deal too. And, unless Rizzo offered Texeira money, I don't think Dunn's agent would forgo the opportunity to test the free agent market.

Farid Rushdi said...

I am a 100% Dunn guy and want him back, even if he costs the team $15 million a year.

That said, his clutch-hitting numbers are pretty bad. Combine that with sub-par defense and I understand why Rizzo isn't jumping to resign Adam.

But sometimes, the situation demands that rational thinking be overlooked and this is one of those times.

Dunn reminds us old-guys of Frank Howard in both personality, power and defense. The team needs him.

Steve M. said...

This really should set a tone with Rizzo to not hear what Zim is saying rather understanding all the dynamics involved.

There are intangibles at play in ever players head and in my mind there is no coincidence that Zim's offensive numbers were the best of his career the 2 years that Dunn was in the lineup.

I do believe that Rizzo made a fair offer to Dunn and it is Dunn's people that want to test the market. From what I am hearing from Ryan, the Nats still can get Adam Dunn back here.

Kevin Rusch, Section406 said...

sjm105 said: "Still get tickled at the posters at NJ who swear they will not go to a game until we are a .500 club. What kind of fan is that?"
---
I'm one of those posters. I understand your disappointment, I really do. BUT I went to tons of games in '05-'08, and I just got tired of waiting for quality. And I don't like the new park (heresy! I admit!) -- it's too much about getting non-baseball-fans to come and spend money rather than celebrating the game of baseball. (The "main event" is the presidents race? A video arcade? Clint? Really? How about, i dunno.. A CENTER FIELDER! A trainer who can keep a pitcher on the mound for more than 40 innings???)

Anyway, I know that may sound silly or bandwagon-y, but I just don't want to deal with getting to the park just to be surrounded by a few thousand people who don't care about baseball. I can go to the office for that.

NatsFanTom said...

This is all interesting, but admittedly getting a bit old. I like Dunn and would put a lot of weight into the idea of keeping Zimmerman happy. But I trust Rizzo. That said, am I the only one who has noticed the Bryce Harper is doing very very well in the AFL (OPS over 1.000!). He hit two triples last night, and almost nobody has made mention of it.

MicheleS said...

SI.com has Dunn going ot the Cubs and Pena (another Boras client) coming to the Nats! What in god's name is Rizzo thinking? Pena may have good defense, but he can't HIT! So Zimm may get a gold glove, but not the silver slugger since he won't get any support! Plus our pitching staff needs run support!

NatsJack in Florida said...

We posted the Harper(and Solis)exploits yesterday afternoon as it happened.
Get with the program!

Steve M. said...

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101110&content_id=16060176&vkey=news_was&c_id=was

This may be the most delusional article I have read. Wil Nieves wants to be teammates with Carlos Pena with the Nationals.

I see a better chance of Carlos Pena being a National than Wil Nieves. With Ivan Rodriguez, Wilson Ramos and Jesus Flores ahead of him on the depth chart, it is hard to believe there is any room for Wil Nieves except as a coach.

Am I missing something?

Anonymous said...

Despite the fireworks of some long home runs, Dunn was a terrible clutch hitter. He was a rally killer so many times that it offsets the home runs in my opinion. I have never seen a team have as many bad at bats as the Nats had last season. They need contact hitters to keep innings going. And I don't care what defensive statistical metric people are using, Dunn's defense does not pass the eyeball test. He looked awkward, stretching and reaching for balls that were not right at him and he had to be worst in the league in scooping the low throws.

Anonymous said...

Zimmerman too needs to face reality that he needs a good receiver at first base. Interesting how so many people fawn over Zimm's defense. Granted he is the best at charging the bunts and swinging bunts, but the rest leaves a lot to be desired. He fields every hard hit ball on his side like a little leaguer scared of the ball. He slings the ball sidearm now on almost every throw to first base. Which looks like he converted to sidearm after earlier accuracy problems in his career. When he stabs one on the line he makes that looping palm ball throw that can and often does go anywhere. I'm a huge fan of Zimm, especially his bat but I think people are brainwashed on the earlier hype on how he was the next coming of Brooks Robinson on defense. He plays the position in a very unusual manner. Am I the only one who thinks the Emperor has no clothes here? Again, I'm a fan but he gets a lot of credit for a few highlight reel plays while his general defense is overrated.

James Hoy said...

Don't have much to add to the discussion, I just want to point out that my fellow commentors are awesome. No "FIRST" nonsense, no name calling. Everyone who posts adds something to the discussion. To get a complete perspective on the story, one must read Mark's article AND the comments. Kudos and thanks to the Talkbackers who make a Nationals site must reading every morning even as we approach December.

Anonymous said...

Zim's plea should have been to Dunn (not Rizzo) -- sign for the 3 years you were offered!

Slidell said...

Agree with Kevin (10:40) regarding the emphasis on attracting non-baseball folks to the park for an "entertainment experience" rather than the actual game. The almost-continuous flow of gimmick stuff annoys me to the point that I keep asking myself "Why do I keep going to games?" It's not an easy travel process from Upper Montgomery. Despite waiting 35 years for MLB, one of these times I'm afraid that I'll decide that it's not worth the effort and just listen to the radio.

Golfersal said...

I agree with those that say that Zimmerman should be pointing his displeasure to Adam Dunn. He makes over $10 million a year in a very poor economy and really hasn't led to Nationals to anything. I think that Rizzo is a very smart guy and sees the value of Dunn, but at a certain price.
I am sorry, don't feel any pain on this and Zimmerman is pointing his frustration in the wrong direction. Guess we will find out soon but I wouldn't give Adam a contract over three years and one that pays a total of $35 million plus incentives like giving him a million dollar bonus for over 40 homeruns in a year, $100,000 bonus for walkoff hits, bonus for getting the Nats to the playoffs. That is smart baseball, not given some player that is above average $60 million for four years.

JaneB said...

What makes any of us think we know more than Zim about Adam's value to the team, in all ways, and about the negotiations? We don't know how much money is on the table; you can bet HE does. He is talking to all of baseball, not just Rizzo and the Lerners.
Sign. Adam. Dunn.
Sign. Adam. Dunn.

SpashCity said...

@Golfersal

I don't think Zimmerman is blaming anyone. Zimm says, "He's a little upset that stuff didn't get done. But that was not the team's fault." Sure, Dunn wanted to make a deal and the team wanted to wait, that's business. Then Zimm says, "Obviously, it just makes sense for him business-wise and career-wise to at least go out and see what's out there. That's not to say he won't come back here, or he won't be here or he doesn't want to be here." Also, smart business on Dunn's part. Reports are the Nats have an offer on the table to Dunn. Now Dunn and his agent have to decide if he can get a better deal out on the open market. It's naive to think that Dunn would jump at whatever contract the Nats put in front of him.

Also, regarding your suggestion about giving bonuses for number of homers and other stats. Teams are only allowed to give bonuses based on number of games played (or number of games started for pitchers) and awards such as MVP, All-Star selection, Cy Young, Silver Slugger, etc. I'm not sure if "Home Run Champ" counts as one of these special awards. But the Nats definitely are not allowed to give bonuses based on number of walk off hits.

natsfan1a said...

I don't know what's on the table, nor can I read the minds of any of the parties involved in negotiations. Sure, it gets tiresome waiting but we'll see what happens when it happens. Until then, I'm not going to get spun up about it (I've got a few other things in line ahead of it in that regard; none of them Nats-related).

On another note, I'm not partial to the between-innings entertainment either but it's what happens between the lines that keeps me (and will keep me) coming back. Just. Play. Ball. (What's the countdown to spring training, again?)

Anonymous said...

anonymous 11:50 said: "He (Zimmerman)slings the ball sidearm now on almost every throw to first base." To which I would say, "Just like Cal Ripken, the Hall of Famer." There are no style points.

Wally said...

Here is an interesting tweet from a Cincinnati sportswriter named John Fay (@johnfayman), responding to someone else about the National League Gold Glove awards. Maybe Adam is getting a little 'defensive'

"No shock to me about Rolen over Zimmerman. Talked to Dunn about Zimmerman's throws. He had the bruises to show the inconsistency". about 19 hours ago via Twitterrific

Anonymous said...

Wally -

Hahaha, if Zimmerman's throw's were accurate enough to hit Dunn and leave a bruise, then those throws should be caught.

NatsJack in Florida said...

natsfan 1a ..... I've goy 99 days till pitchers and catchers can report involuntarily.

Wally said...

Anon (2:20) - no argument, what I thought a little interesting/odd is that Zim is going to bat for him in the media and then he says this? At least, so says the guy that has unabashedly wanted Dunn resigned.

Alex said...

I wanted Dunn re-signed too, but for all the chatter about his defense, anyone look at his numbers against lefties last year? A sub-.200 BA and a .720 OPS or so. That's the kind of foreshadowing of old skills that terrifies GMs.

Now, I admit, that's what Pena hit against everyone last year, but Pena had very similar numbers to Adam before last year, plays better D, could be signed for less time (see what happens with Marrero, Tyler Moore, Adrian Gonzalez, etc.) and money (as long as it's reinvested in pitching).

I'm starting to turn...

natsfan1a said...

Thanks, NatsJack. Let the countdown begin...

NatsJack in Florida said...

natsfan 1a.... and I meant "can report VOLUNTARILY, not involuntarily. That would be March 1, 2011.

NatsJack in Florida said...

natsfan 1a... I actually miscounted. There are 95 days till pitchers and catchers voluntarily report. The rest of the squad is a week or so later. The pitchers and catchers can report 2/13/11.

natsfan1a said...

That's even better! Thanks, NatsJack.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't matter if you have a gold glove first baseman or not...the one thing that is holding the Nats back is starting pitching. Thats what wins and when that is notched up, it won't matter who is on first, they'll win. JTinSC

Neato Torpedo said...

@ Alex - a fair point, but looking back at Pena's HR production, his career average looks to be more like ~25.

So let's do the annoying Player A/B test:

PLAYER A: OPS .732, but career has been more like .840 and last year was the first aberration. 28 HR, BB% of 14.9. Fielding .995, 6Es and UZR is -3.7 this season (although he was worse last season). WAR has dropped the past 4 years and was 1.0 last year (down from 6.2 four years ago)

PLAYER B: OPS .842 although there are some hints it’s starting to slowly go downhill. 39HR, BB% of 11.9%, but career has been more like 16% and last year was the first aberration. Fielding .990, 13Es (career high) and UZR/150 is -3.3 this season. WAR was a disaster the last two years but is now 3.9.

Yes, the HRs tip it off. And while UZR/150 isn’t a perfect metric, defensively they seem fairly comparable.

SIGN ADAM DUNN. Pena’s more likely to have some kind of revert-to-form year (given Dunn’s form is what it is), but there are some hints he’s sliding, too.

Anonymous said...

Anon @ 11:39 - You're on the same page as me. Here's the way I look at it... Dunn had the worst year in his career this year for situational hitting (anyone remember when he was low .100's with RISP and .000 with RISP/2 outs after two months in the season???). He finished the year at .217/.169 with 199 K's (leading the league by about 40, right?). So with the same setup hitters, a hitter who hits .250/.250 (any hitter) without all the home runs could have the same 100 RBIs for us next year and not be the rally killer Dunn is the rest of the time.

We'll all see what everyone else thinks of him after he signs a contract but I'll be happy not gritting my teeth while I watch him flailing at another strike 3.

And he's no Ryan Howard... Howard really made his bones in '08 when he had 146 RBIs and hit .320 with RISP/.250 overall. That was a guy no one wanted to face when the pressure was on and who really made it happen when he needed to.

Natslifer

Anonymous said...

I exaggerated on the league leaders in K's - Dunn was 2cnd at 199 and 7 players were within 40 of Dunn. My points still the same and I'm happy if he goes. (Now were's Joey Votto when we need him...)

Natslifer

JayB said...

As I said back in August, Rizzo does not want Dunn back. His defense is that bad. Rizzo has better places to spend that kind of money over the next 4 years. Pitching is what wins, not HRs. Dunn is fun on a losing team, if Rizzo can put together a winner, nobody will miss Dunn except Zimm who seems to really like him personally. Dunn has always been on a losing team. Rizzo is right to turn the page on anything Jimbo did.

Anonymous said...

JayB, if Rizzo doesn't want Dunn back, why did he say as recently as last night that re-signing Dunn is his first choice? Nothing to be gained by posturing about that now. It's too late to get anything back for Dunn in trade, so no need to be talking up Dunn's value for the benefit of other teams. And if they sign anyone else other than Dunn now it would just say to that player that he really wasn't Rizzo's first choice. So why would Rizzo say that Dunn is his first choice if that's not true?

JayB said...

politics.....keep fans happy and keep Zimm happy....believe me it is not going to happen....Rizzo is going to sign a second tier FA to a one year deal at first.....Defense first and any contact hitting next....Rizzo wants to win and that is how you win in the National league....pitching, defense, sound fundamentals.......that is Rizzo's plan

sec3misofa said...

Whst a great mix of delusional and insightful here today ... srsly. Great stuff!

Anonymous said...

This is a tough subject, I agree with Zim that having a dependable guy in the #4 hole makes sense, but at the same time with Marerro tearling up Winter ball, I wonder if signing Derek Lee or Adam LaRoche to a 2 year deal is not a bad idea and let Marerro get some playing time before 2013.

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