Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Harper's path to the majors

The electronic signal from South Capitol Street to Park Avenue making Bryce Harper's signing official had barely been processed before the obvious question was being asked all around NatsTown.

When will Bryce Harper make his big-league debut for the Nationals?

Settle down, everyone. There's plenty of time for that. Can't we just enjoy Harper's signing for one moment?

OK, time's up. When are we going to see Harper in D.C.?

Well, that will happen within a matter of days. Harper will be introduced in a press conference at Nationals Park, probably early next week at the start of the club's next homestand. So we'll see him in a Nats jersey and cap very soon.

And then? Harper is going to get very well-acquainted with Viera, Fla. He'll report ASAP to the Gulf Coast League, where he'll take a crash course in the art of tracking down fly balls in right field.

The GCL regular-season schedule only runs through August 28, so there won't be a lot of time for Harper to get professional game experience. The Nationals could possibly send him to Vermont for the final week of the short-season Class A Lake Monsters' season. That team also has a chance to make the playoffs, offering more potential playing time.

Ultimately, Harper will be back in Viera by mid-September for the Florida instructional league, the same place Stephen Strasburg got his start one year ago. The instructional league, which offers players from all minor-league levels who missed time during the regular season a chance to get extra at-bats and innings, runs through late-October. Which is when the Arizona Fall League begins.

The AFL is meant for top-tier prospects who already have experience at Class AA or Class AAA, but clubs are granted exceptions for players with less experience (such as Strasburg last year). So could Harper, who at that point will have just turned 18, wind up playing in Arizona in October and November?

"There's an outside possibility he could spend some time in the Arizona Fall League," Mike Rizzo said, shortly before getting a whipped cream pie in the face from Stan Kasten. "But we want to evaluate and see if he's ready for that fairly advanced league just after he's getting his feet wet in professional baseball. So we're going to wait and see where he's at."

Because he was given a major-league contract and thus appears immediately on the Nationals' 40-man roster, Harper will be in big-league camp next spring, working out and playing alongside Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, Ivan Rodriguez and Adam Dunn (well, I may be getting ahead of myself a tad with that last one). Assuming he doesn't make the Opening Day 2011 roster -- and I think that's a pretty safe assumption -- he'll be optioned to minor-league camp at some point and then open next season somewhere in the Nats' farm system. (Early guess: low-Class A Hagerstown, with a promotion to high-Class A Potomac sometime in the summer.)

A note about the optioning process: I know I started some debate last night and caused some confusion, but here's how it works ... A player uses up an option any season in which he is on the 40-man roster and is demoted to the minors (including in spring training). So Harper will use up an option this year when he's sent to the GCL, then again next spring when he's sent to somewhere in Class A, then probably again in spring 2012 when he's sent to Class AA or Class AAA. For most players, those three option years would be all he got, and thus the player would be out of options in spring 2013. However, players who have been professionals for less than five years are granted a fourth option year. Harper will fall into that category, so he doesn't have to make the Opening Day roster in 2013, though he certainly could.

(One other note about service time: Even though Harper has a big-league contract, he won't accrue any big-league service time until he's actually in the big leagues. So no matter what his salary is, he still can't be eligible for arbitration until he has three years in the majors (or two years and 130 days or so, making him a Super-2 player). And he can't become a free agent until he has six years in the majors. So it will be a LONG time before the Nats have to worry about losing him to another club.)

This much is certain: The Nationals believe Harper's trek to the majors won't be a long one. They wouldn't have given him a big-league contract (five years, $9.9 million total, $6.25 million of that in signing bonus money) otherwise. Whether his debut comes late in 2012, on Opening Day 2013 or later that summer, Harper will play a prominent role in the Nats' ultimate plan.

"He's a guy that could possibly be a cornerstone in our lineup in the very near future," Rizzo said. "He's a talent that we're pleased to put him in the organization."

38 comments:

Steve M. said...

Mark Z. wrote...Harper will be in big-league camp next spring, working out and playing alongside Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, Ivan Rodriguez and Adam Dunn (well, I may be getting ahead of myself a tad with that last one).

Good one Mark! That will complete our hopes if Rizzo can ink Dunn before the season is over to avoid all the drama going into the off-season!

By the way Mark, you covered this final day of signings really well and I appreciated getting your insight since the MLB Network dropped the ball this year (huge disappointment)

JayB said...

Rizzo, Lerner's and Nats FO did a nice job with the draft signings. Mark correctly points out examples from the 2007 draft that have flopped making that draft very weak just 3 years later.

Drafting and minor league player development is only a part of the job here. The team needs to do well for the long run health of the organization and it looks like they did very well in 2010 but.........The most important part of building the team is the MLB product and that has a long long way to go. Still, well done Nats for this years draft.

natsfan1a said...

Agree that it would be great to see them get it Dunn before the season's end, and I second the thanks on coverage. Especially the video link. That stuff just doesn't get old. hehe... Seriously, props to Rizzo, too.

JaneB said...

Thank you for the info on how options work. And for the video -- seeing it was fun!

Anonymous said...

You got whipped cream on my Elvis wig! :D

TimDz said...

Mark....you gonna get some sleep now? Great job keeping us all up to date and explaining the options rules.

JackinDC said...

That's great insight into the process. Your coverage has been great!
--Jack

Anonymous said...

Mark -

I am curious as to who is going to lose their spot on the 40 -man roster as Harper is added .. is that known yet?

Best Regards, Mark in Arlington

Mark Zuckerman said...

Mark in Arlington: Haven't heard officially yet who will come off the 40-man roster, but the simplest move would be to transfer Luis Atilano from the 15-day to the 60-day DL. He just had surgery to remove bone chips, no chance of returning to pitch this season.

Doc said...

It would be interesting, at some point in the near future, to get Eckstein's take on Harper's batting skills, in comparison to ML batters.

Feel Wood said...

Who cares about Eckstein, where is Batting Stance Guy? Has he done Harper yet?

Wily Mo Peterson said...

Best Case Scenario: Harper destroys the Florida Instructional league and continues to shine in Arizona. Come 2011 spring training Harper continues to excel and starts the year at Potomac, quickly progressing up the ladder until his September 2011 call up and first big league at bat. Now at 2012 spring training Harper wins the starting right field job where he goes on to clobber home runs in DC for the next 15 years.

Mark Zuckerman said...

Well, every once in a while I get one right: The Nats just announced that Atilano has been transferred to the 60-day DL to make room for Harper on the 40-man.

Anonymous said...

Just a matter of info... Tim Keown has a piece on ESPN.com (MLB page) that contains anecdotal evidence from major leaguers who have seen Harper on tape and rehearses the arguments for and against drafting and signing Harper. It's fairly balanced. And in the most recent issue of Sporting News, John Feinstein's editorial piece on agents and reforming the system has a local angle (Lefty, Buck Williams, and David Falk). It would be fair to say that he has strong opinions on agents.

natsfan1a said...

Batting Stance Guy was at the ballpark earlier this summer, and appeared on the pregame show. Guess he'll have to come back for Harper. He did impersonate Ray Knight, if that counts.

A DC Wonk said...

Slightly off topic -- but let's also give kudos to Rizzo et al for signing Coles. Let's not forget, he was a consensus first rounder who was still available in the 4th round because everyone thought he'd go to college. Rizzo picked him, and was able to sign him.

NatsJack in Florida said...

A D C Wonk is absolutely correct. We got the next Stephen Strasburg in A.J.Cole. 4 years younger, tops out at 96 with a good change and nasty curve.

Saw him here in Central Florida and he was a man among children.

Anonymous said...

Thank you, Mark.

natsfan1a said...

DC Wonk, yes, I extend all-encompassing props to Rizzo for the draft.

Feel Wood said...

He did impersonate Ray Knight, if that counts.

I know Ray Knight. (Full disclosure: I know who Ray Knight is.) Ray Knight is a friend of mine. (Full disclosure: Ray Knight walked past me once in the concourse at Nats Park.) Ray Knight is no Bryce Harper. It doesn't count.

Anonymous said...

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but according to Fangraphs Harper will not use an option this year because a player must accumulate 90 days of service time to qualify for an optional assignment. Since there are not 90 days left in the season he cannot accumulate enough time this season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/regarding-bryce-harper-and-options/

Anonymous said...

I think Harper will determine how soon we see him in DC. If he is tearing up A ball and knocking the cover off the ball we will see him much sooner than 2013. Perhaps next year. If he is human after all then we won't be seeing him anytime soon. Who's betting he is not going to beat up on A ball pitching?

Anonymous said...

I'm betting Woodbridge has a $9.9 Million Dollar Game Plan next year.

-longterm

Anonymous8 said...

Funny you say Woodbridge because keep in mind that they didn't even get a whiff of Strasburg.

Harrisburg has been the big winner this year and close enough that many DC fans make the pilgrimage.

Wonder who will get Bryce Harper!

meixler said...

He's 17 years old and thus should be given the benefit of the doubt, but I can't help but wonder if Bryce Harper's getting a MAJOR LEAGUE contract instead of a minor league one is somewhat designed to protect him from being tested for HGH. With numbers like his you can't help but wonder... but now he's protected from being tested by the players' union.

Tcostant said...

Wow meixler -

That is thinking outside the box. If true, it would have nothing to do with the Nationals, as they would have preffered a minor league contract and save the roster spot and expose one less player to the Rule 5 draft. This was a give and take, but it does make you wonder why Harper wanted a major league deal. It's likely just for his agents (I won't say his name) resume.

meixler said...

I'm curious to know how much (if any) testing a team can do of prospects before drafting and/or signing them.

Anonymous said...

http://www2.timesdispatch.com/sports/2010/jul/22/squi22s1-ar-346334/

Don't buy your Harrisburg season tickets yet.

markfd said...

Mark, great coverage on the Harper signing. Thanks for sacrificing some sleep for us!

Feel Wood said...

Harper is a devout Mormon, by all accounts. They don't smoke, drink alcohol, or even take caffeine. Even though HGH and other PEDs were not around in the days of Brigham Young, somehow I feel that those things are not allowed either.

HHover said...

Two things:

first of all, the speculation about trying to avoid drug testing seems unsupported and pretty scurrilous.

second of all--Bryce Harper is a Mormon, but what's the evidence for calling him "devout," as I've read several times? Or is this just an assumption that all Mormons are? He doesn't, for example, appear to be leaving any time in his schedule to go on mission, as Jeremy Guthrie did. I don't ask this to suggest that he is or isn't devout, and I don't really care one way or the other. But it'd be nice to get the facts straight.

Tcostant said...

Has anyone ever seen the South Park espisode on the Mormon faith. It is very good.

meixler said...

HHover,

you're absolutely right that it is unsupported speculation. I din't mean for it to be anything but. I'm a fan, not a reporter and I was simply throwing it out there as a possibility to consider. take it or leave it as you like.

Anonymous said...

I'm with DC Wonk. Given the fact that right now, at this moment the only starting pitcher the Nats have that is an almost lock to go seven allowing only 2-3 runs is 35 (oh c'mon Livan? We know you are closer to your brother Orlando age-wise than that?), year old LIvan Hernandez?

I am tired of watching Olsen hoping that he will learn to be consistent. Tired of watching John Lannan attempt to be a top 3 guy in the rotation when he really belongs as a #5 innings eater ...(say isn't that why they
got LIvan and Batista? How many do they need ... YIKES!!). Tired of watching Detwiler struggle with his poor mechanics.

So, I am really happy they signed Solis!!!?

As for Cole and Ray? Excellent attempts to replace Willems and Smoker. Maybe they will get through they system and become stoppers?

natsfan1a said...

LOL re. Knight, Feel Wood!

bobn said...

Did his brother get drafted, or is he a free agent? Would be great to have him room with Harlow during his ascension years.

bobn said...

Harper, Harper...I know, I know

Anonymous said...

Anyone else in the Nats organization Mormon to help Bryce feel at home?

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