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Associated Press Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg each are good bets to win postseason awards. |
Take, for example, the betting odds released yesterday by the gambling site Bovada for the major postseason awards.
Who's favored to win the NL Cy Young Award in 2013? Why, none other than Stephen Strasburg, who gets 11-to-2 odds (just ahead of Clayton Kershaw at 6-to-1). Gio Gonzalez is right behind those two with 10-to-1 odds (same as Cole Hamels). Jordan Zimmermann (25-to-1) and Rafael Soriano (50-to-1) also make the list.
Then take a look at the NL MVP race, where Bryce Harper (10-to-1) ranks third behind Joey Votto (15-to-2) and Ryan Braun (9-to-1). That's pretty impressive company for a 20-year-old who hasn't even played a full big-league season yet.
But maybe even more impressive among those MVP odds is the guy ranked sixth at 15-to-1 odds. A guy named Stephen Strasburg. Yes, apparently there are only five players given a better chance of winning MVP this season than Strasburg, who got the same odds as Andrew McCutchen (one of the best all-around players in the game).
A Strasburg MVP would be fairly remarkable? How remarkable? Well, consider that the last pitcher to win NL MVP was a guy named Bob Gibson in 1968.
What about the possibility of a Harper-Strasburg MVP-Cy Young sweep? That would be pretty remarkable in itself. In the last 20 years, only one set of NL teammates has pulled off the MVP-Cy Young exacta: Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter did it for the 2005 Cardinals.
67 comments:
Sure, why not!
Oh come on now! The season hasn't even started yet. Let's not jinx things.
NJ -- that's not sports, that's entertainment.
(Re "entertainment," I was referring to the individual stuff. Had to use "that", which was imprecise, to make the very weak joke.)
How about playing a game or two (or 162) before jumping into this stuff?
… it's early days yet (and will be for a long time to come) but no one can accuse me of leaving any possible avenue untried.
… I am and will always be a Nationals fan and look forward to seeing that spiky starburst trophy sitting on the mound at Nationals Park.
… but I also live to dream: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/story/2013/03/20/sp-mlb-montreal-expos-warren-cromartie.html
Go Nats!!
This is about as absurd as it gets. C'mon, Mark; don't dignify it.
I'm as optimistic as anybody, but those kind of predictions are tomfoolery. I think if they remain healthy, Stras and Harp will both put up impressive numbers. I think it's unfair to predict these awards for them before the season has even started. It's almost like if they didn't win them then their respective seasons would be disappointing.
I do have one more prediction closer to the here and now, however, and that is I just can't see Henry making the final 25. Maybe they can hide him again on the DL, but he's toast. I've never thrown him under the bus before today, but I watched him up close and personal Monday and he has lost all confidence in himself, and as soon as the umpire doesn't give him a close pitch he turns into a puddle of poop.It's a shame because the guy has some unbelievable talent. There's only enough room on the roster for one slot per player and unfortunately he takes up two slots between Good Henry and Bad Henry.
One other player that just struck me as having no future with this team is Carlos Rivera. The guy wears a brick for a glove.
people need to keep in mind that "odds" are set based on how people bet, not on what the oddmakers actually believe the odds are. the whole concept of setting odds is to make sure the betting is evenly spread. so if a lot of people start betting on strasburg winning, their odds will change in order to make it less attractive to lay a bet on him.
so when people think that the odds on something from vegas are ridiculous, it just means that the betting public disagrees with you. the oddsmakers may think you're right, but they have to keep the betting balanced.
I remember Doc Gooden's second year in the majors he went 24-4 with an ERA under 2.00 and won the Cy Young award (and pitching triple crown) and was 4th in the MVP vote. I'll take a season like that from Strasburg :)
(and "odds" aren't "predictions," they're just setting betting lines).
Nats heading to Disney World today! Are you going NatsJack?
I will not be posting a reminder today about the "Lets All Cheer for the Washington Nats" party/recording at Duffy's Irish Pub this Sunday. Thank you.
Count me as one who could care less about Vegas and their odds. Someone has already written that this is just a way to get people to put money into something guaranteed to make the casino's money.
I think the over under on the Orioles as spring training opened was something like 76 wins. That is also ridiculous. I am not an O's fan but I have to think it was done to get people in the East to drop money.
Seamhead - I pulled my support for Henry as well yesterday. I will still root for him if miraculously he makes the 25 man roster but I don't have much hope. I also think this is mental more than physical but at 25 he certainly has time to right himself. It just probably won't be with a curly W on his hat.
Go Nats!!
Joe S, good observations on HRod. Thanks for passing that on.
greg, spot on on the odds and betting. While I don't want to jinx Stras and Harp, I think how the odds are being set is newsworthy and a legitimate topic for Mark to write about. These are not his predictions.
Anybody noticed that the hated Dodgers and their $megamillions$ are starting to fall apart, i.e., Greinke's arm, Ramiriz's thumb, Crawford's ability to throw?
NCNatsie said...
I will not be posting a reminder today about the "Lets All Cheer for the Washington Nats" party/recording at Duffy's Irish Pub this Sunday. Thank you.
March 21, 2013 9:50 AM
Are you putting the video on YouTube?
I agree with WA2CHI. It is not even first week of April.
Doc said...
Anybody noticed that the hated Dodgers and their $megamillions$ are starting to fall apart, i.e., Greinke's arm, Ramiriz's thumb, Crawford's ability to throw?
Ned Colleti said he's not worried. They have 3 veteran pitchers on the bubble just in case and this Puig kid they believe is a ROY star.
Replacing Hanley would be tough.
Kershaw is an interesting pitcher and he has been getting mentored by Sandy Koufax. What Kershaw said he has learned is not to nibble against the opposing team's star players. He said he was walking too many players and is now attacking the strike zone.
The Nats face the Dodgers in Mid-May for their first head-to-head.
Theo - "don't dignify it" - Dignity is overrated. As we'll see sunday.
Ghost - Are you putting the video on YouTube? - yyyyyep.
Mark - any odds up for an infield sweep of gold glovers? ;-)
GYFNG
Joe Seamhead said...
I do have one more prediction closer to the here and now, however, and that is I just can't see Henry making the final 25. Maybe they can hide him again on the DL, but he's toast. I've never thrown him under the bus before today, but I watched him up close and personal Monday and he has lost all confidence in himself, and as soon as the umpire doesn't give him a close pitch he turns into a puddle of poop.It's a shame because the guy has some unbelievable talent. There's only enough room on the roster for one slot per player and unfortunately he takes up two slots between Good Henry and Bad Henry.
March 21, 2013 9:34 AM
I've written on Henry 100's of times with the same message. I always wondered what some of you are looking at when you see Henry and wondering what I was missing. I figured all the Henry love was a love for triple digits on the radar gun. Velo.
During Spring Training 2011 I saw Henry as a thrower (not a pitcher) with major mechanical issues when he got stressed. So is it mechanical or something in his head? I would say in his head which becomes mechanical. He would change his release point during almost every pitch probably from gripping the ball too firmly.
Henry has great talent but he can't channel it. I was hoping Henry circa 2013 would come to camp with his problems fixed. Apparently not.
The fact that when Rizzo took him in trade with no MiLB options was the first problem. Billy Beane schooled Rizzo hard in making a trade.
I think the only reason Henry is still here is a perpetuation of this poor trade. Dump it and move on. Some trades don't work out and you use it as a learning experience but you don't hold on to a player hoping for 3 straight years this player will change. Maybe he will change in a new enviroment but chances are that he won't.
waddu eye no said...
Ghost - Are you putting the video on YouTube? - yyyyyep.
I'm envious of anyone with singing and musical talent. I can write lyrics but I can't sing at all. It doesn't stop me from singing in my car but never in public.
I eagerly await the video upload!
i'm sure they don't necessarily have a great replacement for hanley, but he hasn't been a "star" player for at least a couple of years, IMO. 2009 was the last year he put up an all-star stat line (950 OPS). maybe 2010 (850). but since then he's been decent offensively (710-750 OPS) and increasingly poor defensively.
Here is another one of the endless team reviews of the Nats. They all seem to say about the same thing... but, if you are bored...
5 questions
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-washington-nationals6/
http://www.masnsports.com/nationals_buzz/2013/03/johnson-willing-to-give-rodriguez-chances-to-overcome-command-issues.html
Davey almost said "Henry is my guy". Almost. Sounds like Henry is "in".
Am watching Burnett pitch in yesterday's game vs. Cleveland. He came in the 4th inning after an injury to the starter. No outs, no one on base, with the Angels leading 4-2. He looks like he got some sun (or he's very flushed).
Let's just say it didn't go well. Single, Wild Pitch, K, HR, Single, Walk. 23 pitches.
It's a small sample size, of course, but in 1.2 innings for spring training he's racked up a 27.00 ERA, 5.40 WHIP, .667 BA. He didn't pitch until March 13 because of back problems.
Ghost, again, I don't sit with scouts or know agents but it was more than him throwing 100mph. I loved that he could go from 100 down to 82 and even if you don't like his total results, when he could do that and get it near the plate he honestly was unhittable. I always hoped he would figure things out but I am resigned to not cheering for him this year. You asked what I saw and that is it.
Ghost, maybe my memory is flawed, but i seem to remember the end of 2011 and his first 8 or 9 appearances in 2012 he looked sensational. until the Dodgers series. That was about the end of Good Henry for all practical purposes.
sjm308, you say Henry "when he could do that and get it near the plate he honestly was unhittable" so let me ask you this: In Henry's 2 seasons here, how many times did he have an appearance when he didn't allow a runner on base by walk or hit as we can call that "unhittable"?
2011 19 of 59 appearances w/ 26 earned runs 65 innings
2012 14 of 35 appearances w/ 19 earned runs 29 innings
Since Henry has been with the Nats he has shutdown the opponents 33 of 94 times which is just over 1/3 of his appearances and conversely 2/3 of the times he allowed runners on base by hit or walk.
Clippard had 26 of 72 clean appearances but only allowed 18 earned runs in 2011 in 88 innings.
The conclusion from this probably isn't the % of perfectly clean innings but moreso the Earned Runs per inning as a relievers main job is not allowing runs to score.
For the very few times Henry has shined its the inconsistencies with those meltdowns and wild pitches that are so costly to the team and the team morale.
I don't think it matters much ... except that it might make Strasburg and Harper harder to re-up down the road. Yes, there is a dark side of Mark's shiny platinum cloud.
So, whoever called it a jinx had the right idea.
Looks like Luke's NationalsProspects has disappeared?
Joe, yes, Henry had 4 of 10 dominant outings to start 2012 until that fateful Dodgers series.
Keep in mind that Davey many times put him in a low stress bottom of the order type of appearances too.
Also remember in the Dodgers game he came in facing the Dodgers 5-6-7 batters as it wasn't facing Kemp & Ethier.
Don't look now but Drew Storen appears to be exhibiting some of Henry's less than attractive outings. Is it mental or physical? Likely both. Henry isn't the only problem ... put a great deal of the Onus on Soriano me thinks. I'm not sure that's a good thing. I'm just hoping Mattheus has a break out year.
I am not buying the MVP, Cy Young hype either. But, it beats the heck out of not even having a player worthy of being the team's mvp. The progress of this franchise is remarkable.
You forgot to not post about what time it will take place (1-3:30, if memory serves). :-)
NCNatsie said...
I will not be posting a reminder today about the "Lets All Cheer for the Washington Nats" party/recording at Duffy's Irish Pub this Sunday. Thank you.
March 21, 2013 9:50 AM
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal Sources: Hanley needs surgery on his right thumb. #Dodgers.
On topic, I don't care about odds, or even the predictions of pundits, but it's something to talk about until baseball starts, so there's that.
Speaking of baseball and starting, I do believe that the new baseball show on CSN starts tonight, featuring our humble host.
Heck, you could bring Jordon Zimmerman into the talk about Cy Young.....or Gio for that matter.
BigCat said...
Heck, you could bring Jordon Zimmerman into the talk about Cy Young.....or Gio for that matter.
March 21, 2013 11:55 AM
Both Gio and JZim are on the odds board for Cy Young just like Ryan Zimmerman is on the MVP odds board.
The issue with JZim in my mind is that voters rely too much on K/9 and Swing & Miss. JZim when he first was called up was that type of pitcher but he has fully bought into McCatty's philosophy of pitch to contact and get the K's when you absolutely need it.
JZim's biggest issue has been pitch count as he has late movement which results in weak contact and many foul balls. I believe his changeup will do the trick and give him some more swing & miss K's and weak contact on balls in play while reducing his pitch count.
Thank you for reminder natsfan - will set my dvr
Ghost - its silly for me to keep defending someone I now realize is probably not going to make our club and even if Davey takes that gamble, my expectations are not great. But I can defend what I felt. I liked watching Henry when he pitched well and you can't take that away from me. He was exciting and I got excited waiting to see the next pitch. You go ahead and use your experts and your stats but I watch the game to root for my club and still enjoy a simple groundball to shortstop and the throw that beats a hustling runner by a step as much as anything. Its baseball and when Henry did what he did well it was something I enjoyed. Again, You can't change from how I felt, right or wrong. You can wonder about my competence or question my knowledge but I got excited watching him pitch and I got pissed when he self destructed. I didn't have to ask a scout or agent, it was just me.
Span 8, Werth 9, Harper 7, Zimmerman 5, LaRoche 3, Desmond 6, Espinosa 4, Ramos 2, Haren 1
for this evenings game. This is hopefully the game Ramos goes the full 9!
sjm308, I have to say Henry started 2012 like he was a new pitcher. You had reason to be excited. Davey looks like he is 100% backing Henry now so get ready to cheer him on!
Peric... I just read Luke's piece on Krol, last night, so hopefully it's a short-lived issue?
sjm308, I was the guy on the opposite end of the spectrum with supporting Ian Desmond. People were bashing him for his yips, stupid plays, and lousy plate discipline and lack of walks.
While I could see all of those flaws, I also saw flashes of brilliance and vast potential and leadership. I said before the 2012 season that it was the make or break year for Desi. Luckily, he finally put it all together but I don't ever think failure was in his head as it was more learning who he was.
That's the difference with many players. A struggling player has failure in his head and then you have a Ryan Zimmerman and players of that calibre who always have that positive mental attitude and they never believe they will fail.
When I see a player and I can read the negative vibe on him, its the signal to what they will probably continue to be. That's why you have deep slumps and long streaks as it's usually the brain dominating the game.
Yogi Berra had it figured out on the mental side of the game.
I have a hunch they may need every single hard throwing bullpen guy they've got in camp and in the high minors.
Storen's problems this spring have a foreboding feel to them. Plus, I still think Clippard's arm may be on the way down after years of over use mostly by Riggleman. I'm not entirely sold on Soriano he really only closed for an entire season once and that was in TB. Stammen is still more of a spot starter middle guy as is Duke.
What are we left with?
Davey keeps saying he's worried about starting depth into the minors. I'm worried about back-end relief depth back to the minors. I don't see it. Maybe Cole Kimball? Erik Davis? Henry? To go with Mattheus and Abad? Bill Bray? I guess that's depth but is it the kind that can get a club like this into and through a pretty long and grueling season and second season of playoffs?
Peric, I would give it a few weeks into the season before branding Drew Storen. He was worse in ST 2011 and had a brilliant regular season.
Clippard is working on a breaking pitch which should help him immensely to mix in with his fastball and changeup.
Here, here, sjm308!!!
Our boy Henry is about fun fan baseball, thanks for putting it in perspective. I kinda think that he'll get it in gear, but until he does, I'll always have the fans' curiosity and anticipation.
We're not developing a vacine for a deadly virus--we're watching a ball game!
And when Henry does get it in gear---that'll be fun too!
And, Steve M., I can't wait to see how JZim's change works on a regular basis. Should be almost effective as Sras's.
Okay, so My seat is in Sec 117 behind the Nats Dugout. (about 5 rows back). I will be wearing my NL East Champion shirt and I am sure you all will hear me Wooo Hooo'ing tonight!
Jack/Sam, see you there.
Ghost Of Steve M. said...
This is hopefully the game Ramos goes the full 9!
----------------------------------------------
Considering Zuk went a full nine yesterday, I think you'll get what you're asking for....and I hope so, too!!
"So is it mechanical or something in his head?"
Henry has always had mechanical problems, especially with how he lands on his lead leg - no knee flex, throwing him off balance when he lands.
He should have corrected that by now, and ST is the place to do it. Once he starts having that problem, he commences fussing with the landing area of his lead (left) foot on the mound.
That is almost always a sure sign of very bad things to come, because he knows there is a problem and pawing at the mound won't fix it. That uncertainty gets to his head.
One problem leads to the other, and he's got both a mechanical problem and a head problem.
Rizzo's got Erik Davis and Cole Kimball, who both looked good in ST. Not sure how long their patience with HRod will last. Davey's intention to use HRod over the next week could be crucial for Henry. The Nats have options. Rizzo always does.
I love Henry's potential, but the Nats are aiming for a WS title this year. Henry lost too many games for them that they should have won last year. The Nats are not going to let that happen, not this year.
Harper is definately the MVP. Cy Young will go to Zimmermann. Now, place your bets!
Anyone know what channel the CSN network is on DirecTV? Thanks.
Section 222-
I think it's channel 642 right after MASN and MASN2.
Hey, Rabbit! How's a .500 squad gonna have an MVP & a Cy?
(Gotcha!!!)
csn 642, 643
Thanks folks. DVR set.
Sec 222,
642.
Let's Play Two!
Nicely played, UnkyD!
Ok, if I remember correctly, Rabbit has now predicted that Harper will be MVP, Znn will win the Cy Young, and the Nats will be 81-81. Cognitive disconnect anyone?
Ooops, heading over to NIDO to buy UnkyD a drink.
A few comments:
1. I don't mind Mark's post. While the "odds" don't mean anything in reality as far as predictions go, it _is_ cool to see what the bettors think (and that the baseball betting population thinks of the Nats magnitudes higher than they used to!)
2. Re HRod: I always wondered what some of you are looking at when you see Henry and wondering what I was missing. and I think the only reason Henry is still here is a perpetuation of this poor trade. were written in the same post that also had It's a shame because the guy has some unbelievable talent. and Henry has great talent but he can't channel it.
Well, duh! What we see (when we were defending him) was the incredible raw talent. A lot of power pitchers (Koufax, Randy Johnson) couldn't find the plate until they were age 25.
This has nothing to do with Rizzo's ego, for crying out loud. This is trying to hold onto some crazy-good potential.
Some here seem to forget that he got nine saves in the first 35 games of the season last year (at a time when the relief corps had some injuries). And that a number of them were indeed in close games. We all remember that disaster against the Reds, but don't forget that the very night before he pitched a blow-em-away bottom ninth inning in a 2-1 nail biter, by striking out the side on 10 pitches. Similarly, we all remember the Dodgers blow up -- but we forget that he had an ERA for the season of 0.00 up until that point, with a batting average against of .038!
So -- what did we see? We saw pop-your-eyes out talent. Last year, after blowing away some guys with his fastball, he threw one of most wickedest off-speed pitches I had ever seen in person, sending the batter wildly flailing.
Maybe he'll never get it together. Maybe the Nats need to give up.
But asking "what did we see in him" seems like a silly question. We saw incredible talent in a youngster that we hoped could be harnessed.
Given his rocky spring and offseason surgery, I wonder if Henry might clear waivers this year, so he can try to work things out in Syracuse?
Thanks for the back up Doc and Wonk - By the way, Wonk, waiting on hearing about the veteran fan in your family and how she is gearing up for our run at the World Series.
WooooHoooo!!!! I made it to NIDO!!!! I wondered if I'd be on the buying of receiving end of my first appearance..... Hot Dog!!
...or.....
sjm/Wonk/Doc, you spoke your mind on the subject very well and I don't even think we disagree on most points. The big issue is the consistency wasn't there in 2011 and we all know what happened starting with that April 28th game of 2012.
As I said, Henry started off with a nice 2012 but credit to Davey for building his confidence up with some very low stress outings to get him going.
That's where some of the disconnect is with Henry that Davey has to prepare Henry "only" situations that he isn't doing for other players. Some players call it padding the stats.
It's a new season and I hope Henry can be a positive contribution to the Nats. I'm not rooting against him. I hope he proves me wrong.
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