Mark called in to SportsNet Central last night to talk about Stephen Strasburg and whether there is any way Mike Rizzo and the Nats will change their plan to shut down the young ace before a potential postseason run.
Just a wild surmise, but Ryan Perry (definite outlier) is doing great as a starter in AA. Possible that he might do the double header with the Braves this weekend.
Also, if Perry keeps up his current pace, he might replace SS in September. Even though he doesn't have Lannan's experience, he's showing better stuff.
Don't think Perry has enough experience/has shown enough to justify bringing him up in what is now a pennant race match up between the top two contenders in the NL East. Having said that, I don't know why they're bothering with Lannan, either. He's done nothing at Syracuse to warrant a promotion, or even show that he is feigning an interest in returning to the majors. How can a guy that thinks he should be traded to a major league team be that bad at AAA? Maybe we'll be surprised -- doubt it, but maybe -- but if we're resigned to throwing away a start I'd just as soon bring up Maya, who at least seems to be working at being a good minor league player.
Don't think Perry has enough experience/has shown enough to justify bringing him up in what is now a pennant race match up between the top two contenders in the NL East.
They are really still just stretching him out. He will need to continue to show success in AA and AAA before getting consideration. That could indeed happen in September. If Karns gets promoted to AA you'll have two older high-ceiling prospect-types who might be good-to-go.
Right on, Sonny. This is past the point of idle gossip. How does the team feel, thinking they can't get along without Stras? How about the other pitchers? It must be getting tiresome as hell for Stras as well. Box's article and Rizzo's repeated comments should have put it to rest. It's sport media at its worst.
Theo....check Ben Sheets #'s in AA before his start Sunday for the Braves. There is nothing to indicate he warranted that start other than his known history.
History counts alot when considering ML players and Lannan's history is much stronger than Maya's.
Agree w/ SonnyG that this group has talked the Strasburg Shutdown to death. No offense, Mark but there's nothing left to be said about it. Not only that, but at least 80 percent of the regulars on this blog are in favor of it.
History counts alot when considering ML players and Lannan's history is much stronger than Maya's.
According the stats I look at just the opposite. In fact he has been worse. Over the past three years which is why he ended up optioned to AAA as I predicted from the get-go. Right dude ... ha "mission accomplished" indeed you do seem a bit like George W. Bush ...
If we WERE TO USE the "expert" analysis of Natsjack then we would have to use Zach Duke not only was he an IL AAA All Star this year, UNLIKE John Lannan he was also a major league ALL STAR. That puts him head-and-tail above all the others.
But, of course the problem is he is not on the 40-man roster. If he were doubtless they would have to choose him as his performance and demeanor warrant it.
I got to believe some other team would pay more...
Most are not as aggressive ... aren't into "risk reward" scenarios with high-ceiling young prospects. (see Giolito, Lucas: drafted first 2012 for starters). And they are supported in this by baseball's wealthiest owners.
80% in favor? I don't remember a single regular commenter who thinks he shouldn't be shut down. In fact, I can't think of any other topic here on which there is such unanimity. Clint? Debbie Taylor? The Wave? The Anthem? Nady for DFA? The President's Race? Davey for President? Rizzo for Pope? Nope. But shutting down Strasburg? Absolutely.
Maya's history is that he can get through the 1st two innings before losing it. Lannan's history is that it's just as likely the game will be out of reach before he gets to the third. I'd like to hope the Nats can get out to a 5-0 lead and hold on.
Braves with Sheets is a somewhat different story. They're desperate right now for someone who can start the rest of the way, and they needed to find out if Sheets is going to help them in August -- before trading for someone to fill in the hole. The Nats have two DHs before Strasburg shuts down. And might need a replacement starter only 2-3 times in September.
Last, Sheets clearly wanted to be in the big leagues. Lannan has been swirling in the bowl all season long. As much as people admired his "grit" for several years (too many), there hasn't been a sign of it this season. From his performance, he appears to be spending his evenings taking on-line courses for his next career.
You should stop with all the Lannan hate. There is no other option for this Saturday, and you know it. Deal with it. Best case (worst case for you) Lannan steps up on Saturday and earns the September gig. Worst case (best case for you) he flops on Saturday and they decide they need someone else for September. Either way, it's just one game. (Two if you count the other doubleheader start he'll get against the Marlins.)
RZ was on 106.7 The Fan and he discussed the question of how the team feels about the Stras shutdown. Of course you know that RZ will always say what is politic, but I think he was sincere in saying that guys know why it's being done. There did not seem to be a sense that the chances to get a ring were being sacrificed for one player's career longevity.
I was prepared for the "no other option" until Lannan got lit up in hia last outing with a call up in sight. And I accept that it is a fait accompli. However, I'm somewhere between distraught and outraged that the bum has taken $5MM of the Nats' money and produced nothing.
The best outcome is that he throws a three-hit complete game and some other teams offers something worthwhile before the deadline. (Either deadline would do.)
Theo -- very true. But even the 6 man rotation folks agree that he should be shut down. They just want the shutdown to happen as late as possible. Heck, I suggested back in the spring that he be limited to 5 innings per start to delay his shutdown. Even Davey has suggested he once pulled him because he might use that extra inning later on. But everyone agrees that he's not going past the limit, whatever it is and whenever he reaches it.
Maya stands a chance for the next DH start against the Fish if Lannan flops. And since I'm no fan of AAA All Stars. (give me a AA All Star any day) Duke would never be a choice of mine.
If LannEn keeps the ball down, and lets his defense help him out, he'll be fine. Probably something like 7H, 3ER over 5-6 innings. Sure it's total speculation, but if I am right I get to say how smart I am and how others are IDIOTS! If I a wrong I will ignore the facts and Google some names to drop. ;-)
In the minors, he suffers from weaker defenders. He will get much better support from the Nats for all the grounders he induces.
On a side note I do worry about Lombo - is it me, or did he look better in LF than he did at 2b, his "natural" position? Maybe he just hasn't played 2b in so long it didn't feel quite right to him? Still, it was not a good outing. He needs to step it up.
Let's don't go there; don't want to start arguing about next year's limit. My guess is that next year he ends up w/ about 195-200 innings, simply because of inefficiency. That's 32 starts and 6+ innings per start -- because they won't let him go more than 100-105 pitches per start, not because of some ceiling on innings.
Stephen needs to be shut down at 160 innings period! If (I hope I am wrong) we have a terrible home stand this week, resulting in falling behind Atlanta, then all the bozo's out there who want Strass to pitch beyond the 160 should let it go and this becomes a no brainer decision
"Don't think Perry has enough experience/has shown enough to justify bringing him up in what is now a pennant race match up between the top two contenders in the NL East."
If he keeps on performing, he will be a September call-up. If they are as far out ahead of the pack as I think they will be, he will get a start. The Nats have to see what they have in Perry, who has a 95 mph FB - something that neither Lannen, Maya, CMW nor Duke will ever have.
The Nats have taken a no-lose approach to Perry. If he makes it as a starter, the potential payoff is huge compared to the risk they are taking, which is nil - they have nothing to lose, since he can just be sent back to the BP. The Nats coaching staff have a great track record getting the most out of a pitcher's natural ability, and Perry has plenty of that.
This move is one of those things that shows how inventive Rizzo can be when dealing with an institutional problem, i.e. the lack of SP depth in the minors. Whether the Nats win the NL East this year, or not, Rizzo gets my vote for GM of the year. If Perry pans out as a starter, that goes double.
However the rest of this year goes, they will give Perry a hard look next ST. He has been pitching much better than CMW in AA, and I don't see the Nats bringing back CMW next year. As much as I admire CMW's grit, he is another injury just waiting to happen. They seem to want to move Lannen, and Maya has had his last chance, IMO. Duke is there if someone gets hurt and they have no one else. Perry is the only SP guy pitching effectively down there who also has prior ML experience, plus an actual upside.
Its an intriguing story line, and one worth following, IMO.
NJ -- I disagree that SS's long term development would have been hindered by limiting him to 5 innings per start this year. 4 out of his 18 starts have been less than 6 innings so far. Was it a bad idea to hook him when Davey did? Those 4 starts amount to an extra seven innings (ie., one more start) that he has before reaching 160. I'm more than ok with that, aren't you? Anyway, that's water under the bridge.
I don't disagree that a 6 man rotation makes no sense, not only for the development of SS, but more importantly for the impact on the team of limiting Gio's, JZnn's, and E-Jax's starts.
My point, of course, was that creative suggestions for how to handle the innings limit, whether smart or foolish, are a lot different than saying there shouldn't be a limit. We all agree there should be and I have no doubt that Strasburg will be shut down.
36 comments:
Geez. Why not title this post "VIDEO: Will we have to watch an ad first?" so that there'd be more suspense when we watch it?
Enough on the shutdown already.
Just a wild surmise, but Ryan Perry (definite outlier) is doing great as a starter in AA. Possible that he might do the double header with the Braves this weekend.
Also, if Perry keeps up his current pace, he might replace SS in September. Even though he doesn't have Lannan's experience, he's showing better stuff.
No Mark NOT John Lannan. Puuuuhleeeese stop.
Don't think Perry has enough experience/has shown enough to justify bringing him up in what is now a pennant race match up between the top two contenders in the NL East. Having said that, I don't know why they're bothering with Lannan, either. He's done nothing at Syracuse to warrant a promotion, or even show that he is feigning an interest in returning to the majors. How can a guy that thinks he should be traded to a major league team be that bad at AAA? Maybe we'll be surprised -- doubt it, but maybe -- but if we're resigned to throwing away a start I'd just as soon bring up Maya, who at least seems to be working at being a good minor league player.
Don't think Perry has enough experience/has shown enough to justify bringing him up in what is now a pennant race match up between the top two contenders in the NL East.
They are really still just stretching him out. He will need to continue to show success in AA and AAA before getting consideration. That could indeed happen in September. If Karns gets promoted to AA you'll have two older high-ceiling prospect-types who might be good-to-go.
Right on, Sonny. This is past the point of idle gossip. How does the team feel, thinking they can't get along without Stras? How about the other pitchers? It must be getting tiresome as hell for Stras as well. Box's article and Rizzo's repeated comments should have put it to rest. It's sport media at its worst.
Theo....check Ben Sheets #'s in AA before his start Sunday for the Braves. There is nothing to indicate he warranted that start other than his known history.
History counts alot when considering ML players and Lannan's history is much stronger than Maya's.
I haven't watched the video yet, but I am curious to see how Mark can stretch the word "no" out to a minute and fifty one seconds.
Agree w/ SonnyG that this group has talked the Strasburg Shutdown to death. No offense, Mark but there's nothing left to be said about it. Not only that, but at least 80 percent of the regulars on this blog are in favor of it.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/17/you-can-never-have-too-much-of-a-good-thing-the-nationals-want-pitching/
I got to believe some other team would pay more...
History counts alot when considering ML players and Lannan's history is much stronger than Maya's.
According the stats I look at just the opposite. In fact he has been worse. Over the past three years which is why he ended up optioned to AAA as I predicted from the get-go. Right dude ... ha "mission accomplished" indeed you do seem a bit like George W. Bush ...
If we WERE TO USE the "expert" analysis of Natsjack then we would have to use Zach Duke not only was he an IL AAA All Star this year, UNLIKE John Lannan he was also a major league ALL STAR. That puts him head-and-tail above all the others.
But, of course the problem is he is not on the 40-man roster. If he were doubtless they would have to choose him as his performance and demeanor warrant it.
I got to believe some other team would pay more...
Most are not as aggressive ... aren't into "risk reward" scenarios with high-ceiling young prospects. (see Giolito, Lucas: drafted first 2012 for starters). And they are supported in this by baseball's wealthiest owners.
That's the big differential.
80% in favor? I don't remember a single regular commenter who thinks he shouldn't be shut down. In fact, I can't think of any other topic here on which there is such unanimity. Clint? Debbie Taylor? The Wave? The Anthem? Nady for DFA? The President's Race? Davey for President? Rizzo for Pope? Nope. But shutting down Strasburg? Absolutely.
Maya's history is that he can get through the 1st two innings before losing it. Lannan's history is that it's just as likely the game will be out of reach before he gets to the third. I'd like to hope the Nats can get out to a 5-0 lead and hold on.
Braves with Sheets is a somewhat different story. They're desperate right now for someone who can start the rest of the way, and they needed to find out if Sheets is going to help them in August -- before trading for someone to fill in the hole. The Nats have two DHs before Strasburg shuts down. And might need a replacement starter only 2-3 times in September.
Last, Sheets clearly wanted to be in the big leagues. Lannan has been swirling in the bowl all season long. As much as people admired his "grit" for several years (too many), there hasn't been a sign of it this season. From his performance, he appears to be spending his evenings taking on-line courses for his next career.
More fun stuff:
http://mlb.si.com/2012/07/17/nationals-braves-mets-marlins-phillies-trade-deadline/?sct=hp_wr_a4&eref=sihp
F&I is the only one who comes to my mind; he's adamant Strasburg will NOT, in fact, be shut down, IIRC. But he is about the only one.
peric said...
No Mark NOT John Lannan. Puuuuhleeeese stop.
You should stop with all the Lannan hate. There is no other option for this Saturday, and you know it. Deal with it. Best case (worst case for you) Lannan steps up on Saturday and earns the September gig. Worst case (best case for you) he flops on Saturday and they decide they need someone else for September. Either way, it's just one game. (Two if you count the other doubleheader start he'll get against the Marlins.)
Section 222 --
On the 80 percent, I was trying to be polite and allow for dissenters. But you're right. We haven't heard any calls for a six-man rotation for weeks.
RZ was on 106.7 The Fan and he discussed the question of how the team feels about the Stras shutdown. Of course you know that RZ will always say what is politic, but I think he was sincere in saying that guys know why it's being done. There did not seem to be a sense that the chances to get a ring were being sacrificed for one player's career longevity.
audio
http://washington.cbslocal.com/audio/
Feel --
I was prepared for the "no other option" until Lannan got lit up in hia last outing with a call up in sight. And I accept that it is a fait accompli. However, I'm somewhere between distraught and outraged that the bum has taken $5MM of the Nats' money and produced nothing.
The best outcome is that he throws a three-hit complete game and some other teams offers something worthwhile before the deadline. (Either deadline would do.)
There are more Nats fans opposed to a Johnny Holliday shutdown than there are opposed to a Strasburg shutdown. Strange but true.
Theo -- very true. But even the 6 man rotation folks agree that he should be shut down. They just want the shutdown to happen as late as possible. Heck, I suggested back in the spring that he be limited to 5 innings per start to delay his shutdown. Even Davey has suggested he once pulled him because he might use that extra inning later on. But everyone agrees that he's not going past the limit, whatever it is and whenever he reaches it.
Maya stands a chance for the next DH start against the Fish if Lannan flops. And since I'm no fan of AAA All Stars. (give me a AA All Star any day) Duke would never be a choice of mine.
If LannEn keeps the ball down, and lets his defense help him out, he'll be fine. Probably something like 7H, 3ER over 5-6 innings. Sure it's total speculation, but if I am right I get to say how smart I am and how others are IDIOTS! If I a wrong I will ignore the facts and Google some names to drop. ;-)
In the minors, he suffers from weaker defenders. He will get much better support from the Nats for all the grounders he induces.
On a side note I do worry about Lombo - is it me, or did he look better in LF than he did at 2b, his "natural" position? Maybe he just hasn't played 2b in so long it didn't feel quite right to him? Still, it was not a good outing. He needs to step it up.
Section 222.... you can't develope a starter by limiting him to 5 innings per start or pitching every 6th day.
And since he'll only be 24, don't be suprised if he's limited to 180 - 190 innings next season.
Tcostant, thanks for the link.
Love this for the Marlins.
Top Need: a reality check.
NatsJack --
Let's don't go there; don't want to start arguing about next year's limit. My guess is that next year he ends up w/ about 195-200 innings, simply because of inefficiency. That's 32 starts and 6+ innings per start -- because they won't let him go more than 100-105 pitches per start, not because of some ceiling on innings.
Stephen needs to be shut down at 160 innings period! If (I hope I am wrong) we have a terrible home stand this week, resulting in falling behind Atlanta, then all the bozo's out there who want Strass to pitch beyond the 160 should let it go and this becomes a no brainer decision
Great point on Lannan. The Nationals defense is so much inproved, that helps Lannan more than all out strike out pitchers...
Theophelus
"Don't think Perry has enough experience/has shown enough to justify bringing him up in what is now a pennant race match up between the top two contenders in the NL East."
If he keeps on performing, he will be a September call-up. If they are as far out ahead of the pack as I think they will be, he will get a start. The Nats have to see what they have in Perry, who has a 95 mph FB - something that neither Lannen, Maya, CMW nor Duke will ever have.
The Nats have taken a no-lose approach to Perry. If he makes it as a starter, the potential payoff is huge compared to the risk they are taking, which is nil - they have nothing to lose, since he can just be sent back to the BP. The Nats coaching staff have a great track record getting the most out of a pitcher's natural ability, and Perry has plenty of that.
This move is one of those things that shows how inventive Rizzo can be when dealing with an institutional problem, i.e. the lack of SP depth in the minors. Whether the Nats win the NL East this year, or not, Rizzo gets my vote for GM of the year. If Perry pans out as a starter, that goes double.
However the rest of this year goes, they will give Perry a hard look next ST. He has been pitching much better than CMW in AA, and I don't see the Nats bringing back CMW next year. As much as I admire CMW's grit, he is another injury just waiting to happen. They seem to want to move Lannen, and Maya has had his last chance, IMO. Duke is there if someone gets hurt and they have no one else. Perry is the only SP guy pitching effectively down there who also has prior ML experience, plus an actual upside.
Its an intriguing story line, and one worth following, IMO.
Tconstant
"The Nationals defense is so much inproved, that helps Lannan more than all out strike out pitchers..."
They will have to get even better to defend against those balls hit over the wall. Can't wait to see that.
NJ -- I disagree that SS's long term development would have been hindered by limiting him to 5 innings per start this year. 4 out of his 18 starts have been less than 6 innings so far. Was it a bad idea to hook him when Davey did? Those 4 starts amount to an extra seven innings (ie., one more start) that he has before reaching 160. I'm more than ok with that, aren't you? Anyway, that's water under the bridge.
I don't disagree that a 6 man rotation makes no sense, not only for the development of SS, but more importantly for the impact on the team of limiting Gio's, JZnn's, and E-Jax's starts.
My point, of course, was that creative suggestions for how to handle the innings limit, whether smart or foolish, are a lot different than saying there shouldn't be a limit. We all agree there should be and I have no doubt that Strasburg will be shut down.
The better defense in the majors won't change the fact that Lannan has a 5 to 3 K to BB ratio.
I would think [crummier] fields, too.
In the minors, he suffers from weaker defenders. He will get much better support from the Nats for all the grounders he induces.
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