 |
File photo by Mark Zuckerman / NATS INSIDER Chien-Ming Wang faces Dillon Gee tonight at Citi Field. |
So the difference in tonight's game might very well come in the first 15 minutes, as Wang attempts to set down the top of the Mets lineup without putting his team in a hole. If he can do that, he and the Nationals should be in business.
Rookie right-hander Dillon Gee is on the mound for New York, in search of his 13th win (that's four more than anyone on the Nats staff currently has).
As you know, I'm not in New York for this series. Enjoy the game and the conversation...
NATIONALS at METS
Where: Citi Field
Gametime: 7:10 p.m.
TV: MASN
Radio: WJFK (106.7 FM), WFED (1500 AM), XM 183
Weather: Clear, 77 degrees, Wind 10 mph out to CF
STARTING LINEUPS
NATIONALS (68-77)
SS Ian Desmond
CF Rick Ankiel
3B Ryan Zimmerman
LF Michael Morse
RF Jayson Werth
2B Danny Espinosa
1B Chris Marrero
C Wilson Ramos
P Chien-Ming Wang
METS (71-76)
SS Jose Reyes
2B Ruben Tejada
RF Lucas Duda
3B David Wright
CF Angel Pagan
LF Willie Harris
1B Nick Evans
C Josh Thole
P Dillon Gee
286 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 286 of 286 Newer› Newest»I want to express my consternation that several knowledgeable posters on this site constantly harp on a pitcher for 1) not being warmed up enough because he gives up a run or two early or 2) has no stamina because he gives up a run or two in the 5th or 6th inning or 3) can't get hitters out the second time through because he gives up a run or two.
The last time I checked no starting pitcher in either league had an ERA of 0.00 or 1.00 or even less than 2.00 which means that every starting pitcher in baseball gives up earned runs at some point in almost every start.
Done with my minor rant.
More bizarre post-game quotes from Davey:
“I’m pleased with what I’m seeing. He (Wang) looked real good today. I know he could have gone further.”
Gone further? As in Gone Further into more trouble. Davey, what is really in your chaw because I think sometimes that you are in dream land.
NatsJack, the difference is the Nats have 3 pitchers in Milone, Wang and Detweiler that haven't pitched any Quality Starts combined.
Just finish 6 innings w/ less than 3 runs and while they are at it, get the Nats a W.
Quality starts:
CMW - 6 IP 0 ER - CHC 8/6
CMW - 6 IP 1 ER - CIN 8/26
Quality starts:
Ross Detwiler - 6 IP 1 ER - CIN 8/17
Ross Detwiler - 6.2 IP 1 ER - ARI 8/22
Ross Detwiler - 6 IP 3 ER - CIN 8/27
From Wikipedia,
In baseball, a quality start is a statistic for a starting pitcher defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs.
The quality start was developed by sportswriter John Lowe in 1985 while writing for the Philadelphia Inquirer. The statistic is preferred by sabermetricians to that of winning percentage (the number of wins garnered by a pitcher as a fraction of his total decisions) insofar as it acts independently of some factors beyond a pitcher's control such as fielding errors, blown saves, and poor run support ESPN.com terms a loss suffered by a pitcher in a quality start as a tough loss and a win earned by a pitcher in a non-quality start a cheap win.
Thanks NatsLady, more posters giving inaccurate info.
Neither of Milone's two starts went six innings.
And, yeah, of the 5 quality starts listed above, the Nats lost 3.
I like Anon8's posts. But can't let frustration get in the way of facts.
There is a problem with Detwiler, though: he has no shoulder injury, he's young, and he still has not pitched 7 full innings.
I'm not a fan of "quality starts. All I'm saying is I don't see these guys as getting "shelled".
Their removal has been mostly situational as opposed to getting "lit up".
I think the earned runs in a "quality start" should be two, because that would equate to a 3.00 ERA. But that would only remove one from the above list.
NatsLady, just a pet peeve. Need stats posted as facts where frustration shouldn't change the facts. Anon8 needs a couple cups of java.
Just think, if you combine 5 innings of Detwiler from Monday with 4 innings of Wang yesterday you almost have a shutout.
Here's the problem. During non-September games, you don't have the expanded bullpens to bail you out as easily. This is why you need starters to go 7+ innings so you don't put your bullpen on burn-out.
Steve M. said...
Actually, there have been 3 complete games this season and one was a loss on an unearned in Anaheim where JZim lost 1-0. Livan and Marquis both had complete game wins.
Complete games are great, but keep in mind some Managers don't believe in pushing their pitchers any more when the pitch counts are exceeded by that pitchers norms which makes CGs more rare these days. The Phillies have 3 workhorses that are "throwbacks". Halladay/Lee/Hamels are better than any threesome.
I care more about ERA combined with 7 inning performances as I think the "quality start" stat doesn't tell a great story for low scoring teams.
If they redefined a quality start to 6 innings of 2 earned runs or less than that should give you a better indicator of giving your team a chance to win. I don't consider a 4.50 ERA a quality start meaning 3 runs in 6 innings. The quality start stat was started by John Lowe in 1985 and he was a writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Jordan Zimmermann had by definition 16 Quality Starts and only 1 of those had 3 earned runs. You would think going at least 6 innings while giving up 2 runs or less would result in wins 90% of the time, right?
September 9, 2011 11:12 AM
NatsLady, I actually wrote about the flaw in the Quality Start stat last week.
Good gravy, Steve, who hasn't talked about quality starts being flawed?
Quick one for you, NatsLady:
not sure how the other team "earns" a run by a WP but not a walk but there ya go
It's because they were "earned" by the pitcher. That also explains why passed ball = unearned run and wild pitch = earned.
(Earlier this season, someone else cleared up that pitcher error = unearned because the run didn't score because of his pitching.)
Scooter, if the gravy is good pass it!
I always try not to pass the gravy, at least in mixed company.
Heck, I expect that even *I've* talked about that one, as well as wins as a measure of pitcher effectiveness, the DH, and other assorted rants, er, subjects. ;-)
Anyhoo and fwiw, looked at the DVR and found what FP said about Wang's warmup routine (was shortly before the last break to take place before the top of the 1st). He said that Wang throws more pitches than most people and is getting his bullpen work in. FP also observed that it's a "feel" thing and that it would take some time for Wang to get back to where he was as a NYY.
Thanks, NCog. Was thinking of making the trip to Fenway next year and now I have the dates.
Why would they keep using a flawed stat? Seems like the Sabre minds can get together and other stat gurus and see that the Quality Start definition is really settling for mediocrity.
Rename it to Mediocre Start.
A Quality Start should be an either/or scenario of 2 runs in 6 innings or 3 runs thru 8 innings. So if you give up 2 runs in the 5th, and 1 in the 6th and no runs in the 7th and 8th, that is a quality start. 2 runs through 6 is a 3.00 ERA and 3 runs through 8 is a 3.375 ERA.
To me, a Quality Start by my definition gives your team a chance to win every game. A 4.50 ERA gives very few teams a chance to win.
What the heck? The 2012 schedule post disappeared.
I was at the game on Monday and here are my thoughts on Detwiler: He was absolutely cruising until he had 2 outs and no one on; I mean cruising. No one hit the ball hard and he was at about 70 pitches. The thought that someone should have been warming up at the start of the inning just in case is ridiculous.
Detwiler then gave up a walk to Justin Turner after a tough battle. After that he unraveled quickly (a walk where nothing was close, hit,hit). I think this speaks more to a lack of mental toughness rather than anything physical and if Detwiler doesn't have it he won't succeed in the bullpen in high pressure situations.
2012 Schedule Released
Nats open on road, April 5, in Chicago
Home Opener April 12 vs Cincinnati
Yankees visit Nats Park June 15-17
Here's my random thoughts on Peacock tonight. He is facing an offensively challenged team so he needs to do what Detwiler did for his 1st 5 innings on Monday: Shut down Reyes and Wright. You don't have to be perfect, but those are the 2 to keep off base.
Found the full 2012 schedule here:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/nationals-watch/2011/sep/14/mlb-announces-2012-schedule-nationals-open-cubs-ap/print/
http://www.masnsports.com/the_goessling_game/2011/09/nationals-announce-2012-schedule.html
You owe me a Coke, Steve M. :-)
Nice not to see the Nats starting at home against the Phillies or Mets.
That will be a cold day in Chicago on April 5th.
Wang's game was baffling and left more questions than answers. He made some great pitches in tough situations but also threw some real cookies (this may have had something to do with the umpire not calling the low strikes). I really liked that he blew David Wright away after giving up the 2 runs.
I thought his velocity was down from other games but it stayed constant throughout and his sinker did have a nice bite. I guess I'm still where I was before last night on CMW; would like to bring him in next year but only at a reasonable price.
P2P, every stat is flawed. There is no one number that tells you all you need to know. That's why we have so many of them!
Nats do not play the Florida Marlins next year.
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
--Benjamin Disraeli (also attributed to Mark Twain)
Steve M.
The Mets lineup has been reasonably productive. They have gotten contributions from Turner, Tejada, Evans and especially Duda who is their version of the 2010 Mike Morse. They are not the piece of cake you say they are.
Father's Day June 17th 2012, the scheduling Gods seemed to maybe want a redo of Father's Day 2006 the last time the Yankees played in Washington.
The Rays come in right after the Yankees series.
natsfan1a, I do owe you a Coke & a smile!
N. Cognito, correct, but they do play the Miami Marlins.
For other STHs, are you renewing before the 5% discount expires tomorrow? In previous years, they have had other offers that are better value for me (2 seats, 20 games, about $900 so the 5% discount is only $45). Have you heard anything from your reps about the potential for $100 in Nats Bucks, for instance?
Renew now for the sure 5% or hope for something better later? Hmmmmmm.......
Steve M. said...
Here's my random thoughts on Peacock tonight. He is facing an offensively challenged team ...
I don't necessarily disagree with your point on shutting down Reyes and Wright, but the Mets are 2d in Batting average, 2d in OBP, 6th in runs and 6th in Batters WAR. I didn't check how they have been since trading Beltran, but I wouldn't say that they are offensively challenged. Surprising maybe, given the lack of star names, but they have been effective.
Re the 2012 schedule, surprised no one has yet raised the big question. Does Strasburg start the opener in Chicago, or the opener in Washington? He can't do both. (Remember how in 2009 when the Nats opened on the road Daniel Cabrera ended up starting on Opening Day in Nationals Park vs the Phillies? Good times.)
Feel Wood - I would give JZimm the season opener, as a reward for his 2011 season (and it is also probably the last non-Stras opener for a while). Giving Stras the home opener may make it a win all around.
Have you heard anything from your reps about the potential for $100 in Nats Bucks, for instance?
The $100 Nats Bucks is what they offered for early renewals by some day in September the last two years, so the 5% discount offer this year probably means no Nats Bucks. That ends up being a better deal for the high rollers and a worse deal for the cheaper plans. But that would make sense, since there's more of a need to incentivize people laying down major coin.
JD, you really want to compare the Lefty Duda to Morse. Duda with 9 HRs and a .284 BA ? Duda is a horrible RF. His offense sometimes doesn't make up for his lack of defense.
Since Beltran left, they are a different team. Duda vs. Beltran I would rather face Duda and especially have him in RF. Beltran with the Mets had 15 HRs and a .289/.391 slash.
Since Beltran left, they have scored an average of 4.225 runs per game. In the month of June, they averaged 5.52 runs per game.
Now with all that said, the Mets don't score well at home. They are a better offensive team on the road. At home, the Mets this year have scored 4.15 runs per game.
"For other STHs, are you renewing before the 5% discount expires tomorrow?"
Done. Saves me over $240. I like the plan - you can extend payments over 7 months now. I'd prefer it be more like the Caps where I make 12 equal monthly payments (no interest) for my tickets.
That was nice so I'll let you off with just the smile, Steve M. ;-)
Would be great to have a repeat of the Father's Day 2006 game. Heck, let's just have a redo of the entire series. Okay, maybe not the first game, but the other two still hold places of honor in my Fave In-Person Nat Moments HOF.
Steve M. said...
Father's Day June 17th 2012, the scheduling Gods seemed to maybe want a redo of Father's Day 2006 the last time the Yankees played in Washington.
The Rays come in right after the Yankees series.
natsfan1a, I do owe you a Coke & a smile!
September 14, 2011 11:02 AM
Wally said...
Steve M. said...
Here's my random thoughts on Peacock tonight. He is facing an offensively challenged team ...
I don't necessarily disagree with your point on shutting down Reyes and Wright, but the Mets are 2d in Batting average, 2d in OBP, 6th in runs and 6th in Batters WAR. I didn't check how they have been since trading Beltran, but I wouldn't say that they are offensively challenged. Surprising maybe, given the lack of star names, but they have been effective.
September 14, 2011 11:08 AM
Glad you were on the same thought as me on Beltran as I just finished my point to JD. Most of my point was the Mets aren't as good offensively at home and they lost Beltran which is a major difference.
Not surprisingly, Duda's power comes from the matchups against RH pitching but you limit your damage keeping Reyes and Wright in check.
Sure, Duda can hurt you as well as any other player in the lineup. Sure, the Mets aren't like facing a lineup like the Padres or Giants or Astros, but best to face them in CitiField and without Beltran.
I wouldn't say the same about the Mets on the road.
btw, Mark has a new post with the schedule info.
What a coincidence! I, too, have posted on Quality Starts, specifically, to the effect that they are a rough measure of basic competence, and specifically *not* of excellence. A starter who goes six full and allows no more than three runs has given his team a decent chance, with a run to spare for the bullpen, because five runs more often than not will win a game. It's not supposed to be a 2nd Coming on Cy Young Start stat.
OF Cy Young ... OF!
Sec3, have you checked how woefully offensive the Nats offense is? "five runs more often than not will win a game."
Agreed, for teams that score 5 runs a game on average and the Nats aren't one of them!
P2P, invent a stat that applies specifically to low-scoring teams and still translates game-wide. Probably would have to incorporate a lack-of-support factor, or at least a "reasonable expectation of support" correction.
Besides, the whole point is that that is not the pitcher's fault.
Sec3, its called the Jordan Zimmerman factor. 16 quality starts and only 8 wins on his Won/Loss record. That is beyond unbelievable.
Contrast Ian Kennedy who people call a Cy Young candidate who was almost identical ERA as Jordan Zimmmermann through the end of July and had 17 wins.
[Run support, defense, bullpen, and luck]
For what it's worth, I am no longer clear as to what point(s) y'all are making.
I'm just trying to get us to 300. 300 comments is a Quality Post.
Well, chasing a big, round number is always a noble goal and one that I applaud mightily. So, go ahead and put yourself in there to make a few extra comments. We'll look the other way. Use some Grecian Formula, if you want. It'll help you post younger.
Just ... make sure you don't bet on blog commenting, okay? I don't want you to see you banned.
I also don't want to see you banned.
(Had an extra you in there. Usually, I think I can't get enough of you. But this time, I reckon I had too much.)
Just trying to do my part to help the team. Keep on grinding 'em out and, the good Lord willing, we'll get to 300*.
Also, isn't Just For Men rather than Grecian Formula the official men's hair product of MLB? ;-)
Sec 3, My Sofa said...
I'm just trying to get us to 300. 300 comments is a Quality Post.
September 14, 2011 1:45 PM
Also, isn't Just For Men rather than Grecian Formula the official men's hair product of MLB? ;-)
A dated reference, lost on our younger viewers.
I meant MY reference was dated, not 1a's.
Walt "Clyde" Frazier: Sofa, your slipcover is slippin!
Keith Hernandez: Your upholstery's rippin!
Emmitt Smith: Your pillows are pallid!
Randy Johnson: I'm new here, I don't get to rhyme yet!
Just For You Men -- keep you your edge!®
captcha = methe
not sure if that's a suggestion or an editorial
It used to be 300 comments was automatic for Hall of Fame . . . but, alas, that was before the steroid age . . . sigh . . .
That's okay, Scooter. I got the reference, and I once dated a Grecian. (Okay, that second part isn't actually true.)
LOL, sec3. Hey, Randy, how about "no coins in your wallet" ('cause they're in the, you know, cushions and all)?
captcha: dictu (as in mirabile? why, thank you, it was rather)
Of course, Emmitt wasn't rhyming either; he was using alliteration. Perhaps Randy could try a little synecdoche?
o, she may be weary
authors they do get weary
describing everything lit'rally ...
when she gets weary
try a little synecdoche
(that's all you gotta do)
[captcha = versed. good grief.]
Actually, I was going for (half) assonance there.
Scooter said...
Of course, Emmitt wasn't rhyming either; he was using alliteration. Perhaps Randy could try a little synecdoche?
September 14, 2011 3:21 PM
Also, I hate people that get the words wrong.
you know she's waiting
just anticipating
devices that she never never never pens yeah
but while she's there waiting (without them)
try a little con-son-nence ...
it's not just all prescriptive, no no no
she dots her i's and t's
but the soft words, they are so descriptive
it makes it easier
to use onomatopoe
(ia)
i already regret it
might as well forget it
this comment has killed my happiness
it all seemed so easy
all i got to do is
take a little break from this
LOL! (Me, too.)
Okay, I'm gonna be in transit for a while.
The other day, y'all said something about those Just You For You Men commercials, and I realized that ... those are really famous athletes Drexler, Hernandez, Smith, and Johnson, aren't they? I must confess that I was incredibly shocked -- it never occurred to me that THOSE guys would do THOSE commercials.
Not sure why not. In hindrospect, those Lite Beer commercials weren't exactly Star Wars-quality productions. Just surprised me, I guess.
Your argument's invalid!
Yup, it's really them. At least they're not in their tighty whities, like Jim Palmer was back in the day.
Obligatory post enhancement comment, with a funny (imo) site I recently encountered:
http://cubiclebot.com/funny/internet-access-captchas/
Oh, wait. Here's a link to a better one.
Blimey. There's a half hour I won't get back. Thanks, 1a!
And I think Jim Palmer looked dreamy.
natsfan1a said...
Yup, it's really them. At least they're not in their tighty whities, like Jim Palmer was back in the day.
As I recall, Palmer wasn't completely in them, at least not until they retouched the photo.
I don't remember hearing that particular tidbit, Sec3, but then your interests and mine do not always converge perfectly.
I don't recall it, either. But I don't need photo documentation or anything like that. Yeah, I think I'm good.
(Think that we'll get to 300 before Pudge gets to 3,000?)
Just between you and me and the couch, 1a, I don't particularly care for Pudge's chances of reaching 3,000.
By which I mean to say: I think it's unlikely he'll get to 3,000. (That phrasing was very odd. Don't know what got into me. Maybe I was unconsciously trying for metonymy or something.)
Yeah, I actually don't think it's likely either.
Of course, I also don't think we'll hit 300.
We could, however, hit .300. Depending on who's pitching.
Yeah, I don't think we will either. But we gave it a good shot.
'Twas not to be, chere. Pity.
Quel dommage.
Yes. I, too, kvell at the damage we managed to do.
Post a Comment