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US Presswire photo Ross Detwiler allowed one run and struck out seven over six strong innings. |
-- Last night's 2-1 loss to the Reds had to be frustrating on a number of levels, not the least of which was the fact the Nationals had the tying run on third with one out in the ninth before Wilson Ramos grounded into the game-ending double play. But that disappointing finish shouldn't completely overshadow Ross Detwiler's stellar start.
Entering this one, serious questions surrounded the left-hander, who had failed to complete six innings in any of his last four big-league starts dating to last season. So when Detwiler not only went six against the Reds, but allowed only one run while establishing a new career-high with seven strikeouts, team officials had to be encouraged.
The Nationals want to continue to get more looks at Detwiler. Since the day he was drafted sixth overall in 2007, he's been more potential than results, but every once in a while you see an outing like this and realize there may yet be something productive inside that left arm.
-- Sean Burnett gave up a costly tack-on run last night that put the Reds up 2-0 in the eighth instead of a 1-0 deficit that would have been erased by Ryan Zimmerman's ninth-inning homer. It was yet another shaky outing for the reliever, who actually had been pitching well in recent outings.
Burnett had allowed only one run over his last 11 games, spanning nine innings. Only eight batters had reached base, only one of them via walk. So it may have appeared he was finally getting things together after a brutally rough season.
Except we'd barely seen Burnett at all. Last night marked his first game appearance since August 9, meaning he had gone eight full days between outings. That's highly unusual for Burnett, who at his peak would pitch two out of every three days.
Make no mistake: Davey Johnson has lost a lot of confidence in Burnett, whose decline from top setup man to rarely used mop-up man has been swift and painful.
-- In the wake of Stephen Strasburg's ragged start last night in Hagerstown, plenty of eyes will be on the right-hander the next time he takes the mound, curious if it was merely a bump in the road like he expected or a more ominous sign.
Though nothing has been announced yet, all signs point to Strasburg returning to Hagerstown Monday night to face the Hickory Crawdads. The right-hander said last night he would be pitching again in five days, and Hagerstown is the lone Nationals affiliate scheduled to be home on Monday.
What happens after that? Well, if Strasburg remains on a strict, five-day scheduled -- and that's by no means set in stone -- he would next pitch on Saturday, August 27. The only Nats affiliate home that day is Class AAA Syracuse.
Skip ahead another five days, and Strasburg's last rehab start would fall on Thursday, September 1. Who's home that day? Class AA Harrisburg, as well as Hagerstown. You'd have to assume the Nats would prefer he make his final rehab start against an upper-level farm team, so Harrisburg makes the most sense.
And then, if all goes well, Strasburg is lined up to return to the big leagues during the first full week of September. If he stays on a perfect, five-day schedule -- which, again, is no guarantee -- he'd be lined up to start Tuesday, September 6 against the Dodgers. It wouldn't be out of the question, though, for the Nationals to give him one extra day of rest along the way and have him debut on Wednesday, September 7.
In other words, don't buy your tickets quite yet.
-- And finally, Matt Purke will be introduced at Nationals Park at 3:45 p.m. today, the first of the Nats' top draft picks to officially be welcomed into the organization. Purke, the former TCU left-hander who was drafted in the third round amid concerns about his throwing shoulder, wound up getting a four-year, $4 million, major-league contract from the Nationals.
The organization has no concerns about that shoulder. Purke let them administer an enhanced MRI when he visited the ballpark in July, a test that came back clean. GM Mike Rizzo also said the lefty has been throwing all summer at his home in Houston, which suggests he won't need much time to get back on a professional mound.
61 comments:
Does anyone tell Ramos NOT TO SWING at the first pitch. Everyone knew Cordero would throw the sinker on the first pitch, and he was struggling. Take at least the first pitch. Once again, where was Eckstein?
I say take at least one strike. That way, if he (the pitcher) is struggling, you have a chance to get into a hitters count.
If you get to 2 - 0, you then get a green light and, hopefully, you 've already seen his slider.
If Detwiler can repeat these types of performances with lower pitch counts and get deep in the games, then he can be considered a starter.
Consistency is the key here.
Gonat... Detwiler certainly needs to be a more "efficient" pitcher to be a starter. But his "stuff" was the best it's ever been.
Make no mistake: Davey Johnson has lost a lot of confidence in Burnett, whose decline from top setup man to rarely used mop-up man has been swift and painful.
You may be the mistaken one here, Mark. That was no mop-up situation last night when Davey brought in Burnett. And the fact that he hadn't pitched in eight days had more to do with the nature of the schedule (rainout, off day) and the pattern of the games than it did with a loss of confidence from the manager. (Indeed, if Burnett is nothing more than a mop-up guy now, then why didn't he pitch in the Philly blowout on Saturday?) In the postgame last night, Johnson came just short of apologizing for not having used Burnett enough recently. So it's pretty clear that although he may not be counting on Burnett as the primary setup guy for Clippard and Storen any more he's at least still grouping him in the second tier of the bullpen along with HRod, Coffey and Mattheus.
Detweiler threw over 100 pitches in 6 innings, Cueto reached 103 through 8, that is the difference from a marginal starter and a great one! Also, the Reds offense beyond Philipps, votto and Bruce is anemic at best, if Ross had pitched this way against the Phillies then I would stand up and notice but until he can make it through the lineup more than once against a good team, he is still a AAAA pitcher in my mind who should be converted to reliever and become Clippard 2.0.
The best part of last night's game was Detweiler's stuff. According to my Gameday readings he was throwing his FB/Sinker at 96mph on occasion.
The worst part about last night's game was Ramos hitting into a DP on the first pitch. Johnson spoke about it to the press; let's hope that he spoke directly to Ramos about it.
A few thoughts:
1) Detwiler was at 95 to 96 MPH consistently against a good hitting team - very encouraging. Would like to see this repeated 3 or 4 times in a row.
2) The fact that Ramos went after the 1st pitch in that situation is more frustrating because it's been a team problem all year and to me that's on the manager.
3) In addition to poor decision making in game situations we have a slew of hitters who won't ever work the count instead they constantly make soft outs early in the count - if you are going to swing at the 1st or 2nd pitch you better at least make a hard out.
4) Bringing in Burnett to face the 2 lefties to me was a very mechanical 'by the book' move. In fact Burnett hasn't been great against lefties all year and Votto eats lefties for lunch.
5) Having both Gorzelany and Balester on the team is a waist of a roster spot.
6) Worrying about Strasburg's outing of last night is absurd.
7) I haven't been impressed with Davey's work at all. I don't think think he's the guy for the future; I hope he realizes this. I think it would be a great move to give Bo Porter the job for next year.
8) Michael Morse - team MVP by a landslide.
9) Espinosa will be fine.
10) NL MVP - 3 way race: Justin Upton, Tulo and Votto.
Harper_ROY,
'Detweiler threw over 100 pitches in 6 innings, Cueto reached 103 through 8, that is the difference from a marginal starter and a great one'.
I think that this is more a function of Desmond, Espinosa, Gomes and Ramos making quick outs rather than Cueto being efficient. He usually throws a lot of pitches.
In other news, it's not too late to register your Nats Insider vote:
http://washington.blogger.cbslocal.com/most-valuable-blogger/vote/sports/
Having both Gorzelany and Balester on the team is a waist of a roster spot.
Nah, those guys are both thin as rails. Now Livo and Coffey, there you have the real waists of a roster spot.
jd agree with all you say except saying espi will be fine; until Ramos and Espi, as well as Desmond, can prove they are more then players who have potential and are players who have talent to be above the major league norm I'm not siging off on any of them yet. Sure he's young and he's got potential but if you look at the numbers of any of these players this year, escpecially the second half, and we traded for a player with the same numbers we'd all be dissappointed (see Cory Brown). As Nats fan we are all enamored with the potential of these players but its up to them to develop into solid MLB players not players who tore it up in college and the minors.
On Aug. 10 Mark lamented Detwiler's ERA of 5.03 in 22 career starts.
Eight days later Detwiler's career ERA is 4.31.
Livo's is 4.38.
I've been thinking about Ramos this morning. In the beginning of the season when he was hitting 400+ I remember him working the counts, staying in there and fighting for pitches. That seems to have changed, especially in clutch situations. This is the third time in the last few weeks I can remember a pitcher struggling to throw strikes and Ramos coming in and swinging at the first pitch for an out. The last time we had bases loaded with the pitcher throwing 5 consececutive balls and Ramos swinging at the first pitch with bases loaded.
I don't think you can blame Eckstein here. Eck isn't at the plate, the player is making the decision to swing or not, and right now Ramos is making some bad decisions.
-Don
Here is me playing DC WonK. At the open, the Nats were 82% favored to lose. The bets close once the games starts, so, going over to Fangraphs, the only time the Nats were favored to win was in the 1st inning before Votto's homerun, and in the 9th inning after Gomes reached on the error and the bases were loaded with 1 out.
At that point, Ramos was in the game in the highest leverage situation, and the Nats win probability was slightly over 50%.
In the same situation in the Cubs game (9th inning, bases loaded, 1 out), Ramos singled, drove in Gomes, and the score was 4-3. At that point the Nats chances of winning were 46%.
So, the basic difference between this game and the Cubs game was that was a home game.
Of course, these are just stats and don't take into consideration the shakiness of both closers (Marmol and Cordero).
Earlier in the year, the Nats were winning those type of games. We need to win them next year because good teams do. I don't care if we lose an occasional 11-1 or 11-3 game. Those happen. But the close games where your pitcher has given up only one run-- gotta get those games. /rant off
"What happens after that? Well, if Strasburg remains on a strict, five-day scheduled -- and that's by no means set in stone -- he would next pitch on Saturday, August 27. The only Nats affiliate home that day is Class AAA Syracuse."
The P-Nats will be in Frederick.
Repeating some thoughts from prior thread:
Ramos, I'm still upset. I don't want to hear he's 24; he's a major league starting catcher and has been playing for years
He's a major league starting catcher who's in his rookie season. He's only been playing against MLB-level pitching for one year -- he has around 400 lifetime plate appearances in the big leagues. And despite his rookie mistakes, he's fourth on the team in WAR (playing only in 87 games).
As others have said: yeah, you only swing at a fastball in that situation -- but it's not always easy to see if the pitch is a fastball or not until one starts to swing (has anyone here ever faced a big league slider?)
(Anybody remember the Mets' Carlos Beltran ending game 7 NLCS by striking out looking? The point being: even the best get fooled -- all the more so a rookie)
Once again, where was Eckstein?
He wasn't in the batters box.
I believe Detwiler could use a little more time at AAA.
We have too many guys that go up to the plate and are over-aggressive. Makes me wonder if the Nats are teaching patience and knowledge of the strike zone throughout their minor league system.
"Having both Gorzelany and Balester on the team is a waist of a roster spot."
No it is not. It is a thigh.
Don wrote: I don't think you can blame Eckstein here. Eck isn't at the plate, the player is making the decision to swing or not, and right now Ramos is making some bad decisions.
Exactly. And that's how they learn. Ramos will learn big time from this, because the game was in his hands. Yep -- he blew it. I'm sure he was reliving that at bat repeatedly lats night.
But the difference between me and many of the others here is that I'm cutting him slack on it. Hitting big league pitching is one of the most difficult things to do in all of sports.
There's a reason that the phrase "rookie mistake" exists!
NatsLady said...
Here is me playing DC WonK.
I'm flattered! Thanks!
(PS: on another subject -- a few commenters above have asserted that many players at the Nats are particularly bad at working the count. I wonder if that is actually true. Are there stats anywhere on that? (P/PA -- pitches per plate appearance).
I gave a _very_ quick look at baseball-reference and fangraphs, but couldn't find it.
Gonat said...
If Detwiler can repeat these types of performances with lower pitch counts and get deep in the games, then he can be considered a starter.
Consistency is the key here.
Of course, he has 23 starts since his first call up in 2007. My math says that's an average of 7.66 starts in three seasons. Does anyone remember that he was injured the better part of two full seasons? That's why you don't make a guy with plus tools who is a left-hander a reliever at this point. Everybody who says he would be a terrific reliever are probably right, but why would you want a lefty who pitches 93-96 in the bullpen? Wouldn't you want to see him out there starting before putting him in the pen? You don't waste talent like his in relief.
DC Wonk, here ya go. Jayson Werth leads the NL (quelle surprise).
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/league/nl/sort/pitchesPerPlateAppearance/type/expanded
JD, uh, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder for MVP...
"As others have said: yeah, you only swing at a fastball in that situation -- but it's not always easy to see if the pitch is a fastball or not until one starts to swing (has anyone here ever faced a big league slider?)"
I was at the game so I haven't seen the at bat from the CF camera. Where did the pitch start out? I ask because I've seen a ****load of swings by Nats at pitches that never had any chance to be strikes unless the pitches defied gravity and made 90 degree turns.
If Ramos went up to the plate with the approach that, "since the guy's been having trouble throwing strikes, if he throws me a fastball down the middle, I'm going to drive it somewhere," then I can understand how the hard slider could get him.
For fun I sorted it in reverse order, and post-All Star break with more than 100 PA's and our friend Nyjer showed up at No. 7. Not a lot of plate discipline--plenty of clutch hits.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/split/182/league/nl/sort/pitchesPerPlateAppearance/type/expanded/order/false/minpa/100
DC Wonk, I've never tried to hit a MLB slider... but that's not my job and I'm not making millions a year.
I hear and understand you cutting Ramos slack but my point is he has been playing baseball for years, he should know better. This isn't a guy striking out, its a guy grounding weakly into a DP with the game on the line. That's like saying cut the surgeon some slack, this is his first year in practice, so what he cut the wrong leg off... some things you learn early and this wasn't Ramos first time at bat in a situation like this.
And I believe yes, its Eck's job to grab the big guy if need be and whisper in his ear to be patient if Ramos isn't smart enough to remember that. If the Nats need someone to do that I'll be happy to volunteer at a very nominal price as it appears we don't have a coach that can get thru to the hitters.
As for Ramos WAR, well, its not like we are fielding a team of all stars out there right now; if you are starting and aren't near the top of the team lead in some category that would be sad.
Thanks, NatsLady.
The first thing that shows up is that "working the count" is not necessarily correlated with batting well. Werth leads the league in P/PA, but his BA is not great. On the other end, Reyes is near the bottom, but is batting .336
And, of all the players who have enough to qualify for the league lead, our hero Michael Morse has the fewest P/PA of any National (!). (56 of 72 in the league).
Just saw it on video.
A pitch on the outside corner of the strike zone, at the knees, that moved low and away out of the zone. Even if a fastball for a strike, that's a pitcher's strike - a GDP pitch to a righthanded hitter.
A pitcher having trouble throwing strikes and a pitcher that Ramos has probably never hit against (or if he has, very, very few ABs). Ramos has played enough professional ball that it makes that swing inexcusable.
If he doesn't learn from it, Ramos could find himself having a short career as a backup catcher.
"The first thing that shows up is that "working the count" is not necessarily correlated with batting well. Werth leads the league in P/PA, but his BA is not great. On the other end, Reyes is near the bottom, but is batting .336"
You don't correlate with one or two data points. You should do it with the entire data set - you might find there is a good correlation...to OBP.
If you decide to do that, you might want to expand your pool of players. "Qualified" is probably about 400 PAs by now. I'd suggest 200 PAs as your minimum.
I don't think you can blame Eckstein here. Eck isn't at the plate, the player is making the decision to swing or not, and right now Ramos is making some bad decisions.
This is where you miss having Pudge around to shadow Ramos during the game and serve as his own personal coach. The hitting coach is responsible for the whole team, not just the one player. The hitting coach can't hang behind the guy who might come up in a crucial situation late in the game and talk him up about what approach he should take in whatever potential situation he might find himself in at the plate, which also might end up being against a different pitcher than the one who's in there now. But this is the kind of thing that Pudge could and did do with Ramos.
Also, in case you guys haven't noticed there are no huddles between the hitting coach and the batter before every at bat, unlike mound conferences where the pitching coach can impart information pertinent to the circumstances at hand to the pitcher. The batter is largely on his own, with only his talent and personal experience to rely on. I'm actually surprised that the myth of "just coach 'em up" didn't die with Steve Spurrier.
Mark'd,
Agree about Braun. I think Fielder is in the 2nd tier.
I don't know why everyone is so up in arms about Ramos' poor judgment at bat in the 9th last night. I've been watching him do stuff like that all year. This is not to mention that he also makes a poor percentage of routine plays at the plate.
I'm not down on Ramos. It's just fact. But it never should've come down to this. There was the failure to score in the 4th. And if Zim didn't take Cueto deep in the 9th, it might've been a shutout.
Ramos and Espi are rookies and they're bound to make rookie mistakes. Next year, the bar will be higher. But for now they're just playing out the string.
I think Espinosa showed enough in the 1st half to warrant reasonable optimism; I think he's miscast in the 2 hole because of his aggressiveness (that's why Werth hitting 1st or 2nd maces a lot of sense to me). The problem is that Nix/Gomes,Ramos,Desmond,Espinosa can't all hit 8th. My order would be:
1)Werth
2)Ankiel
3)Zim
4)Morse
5)Espinosa
6)Nix/Gomes
7)Desmond
8)Ramos.
a question: Do you think Werth would be playing if he was a rookie making the minimum?
JD, I would agree, except that Werth didn't do well as a leadoff batter, despite the stats saying he should (patient batter, fast, etc.). OTOH, Ankiel seems to thrive there.
It's not your imagination if you thing the Nats srike out a lot. As a team, they have the 2nd highest K% in the NL. This is an interesting comparison.
So, IMO, here is where you look at the hitting coach--not on an individual at-bat, like Ramos last night, but overall.
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=nl&stats=bat&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011
anon 1:42. Yes.
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Nationals&pos=all&stats=bat&qual=0&type=6&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011
There are plenty of experienced hitters who have not worked counts this season, or who have folded like a cheap suit with innings/games on the line. It's equal-opportunity choking, folks. I am surprised by the stats on Werth taking a lot of pitches. Are those career or this season? He sure does take that called third strike a lot. Ankiel must be on the short list of fewest pitches seen. I do agree that a lot of our younger players have to learn by getting out there and making mistakes. Everything they learn this season should make them stronger and wiser for next year. In theory, of course. Just like Strassie taking his lumps last night. Last year he would have been in a lot more of a snit. He seems to have his head on straighter now. My kids are in their 20's - I often say..."Please be patient with them, God isn't finished with them yet". I know that I was really not the sanest or wisest person in my 20's and I don't know if could have held up under the scrutiny they face. That big fat pay check comes with some baggage. Feeling pretty philosophical today - which will last right up until about, oh, 7:05.
"...In the wake of Stephen Strasburg's ragged start last night in Hagerstown..."
I was there, and there were no cheap hits. The two first-inning doubles were frozen ropes.
masnstinks, I remember a philles fan posting on here after we signed Werth that watching him take called strikes 3s will drive you crazy with him; he did in in Philly (per his report and he actually sounded like a nice Philly fan) and I'd expect him to do it here.
Although it has gotten better at one point this season it looked like all Werth did was look for walks and it amazes me with his career numbers just how many bad swings he puts on breaking balls. For better or worse we'll be seeing that for the forseeable future.
masnstinks -- the P/PA is for the 2011 season. It's no surprise, Werth walks a lot (62/428, #7 in the NL ) and strikes out a lot (123/428, #5 in the NL). That means he sees a lot of pitches.
There was a period where he consistently and maddeningly always took first pitch strikes, so much so that the opposing pitchers could almost assume they could throw one past him.
Looking at previous seasons, yeah, that's the same guy. His K% is almost exactly what it was with the Phillies in 2008.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1327&position=OF
Once again, bases loaded, less than 2 outs, tying run at third, and we clearly have no plan at the plate.
Can we just admit failure? And FIRE THE HITTING COACH ALREADY!!!!
-
Ramos was in the damn dugout when the first and second batters reached base. Eckstein has to tell him to take, to look for a ball up, to not swing at anything spinning.
How much does the job pay? I'm not looking for a job switch, but I will look like a situational hitting guru next to Eckstein.
There will be an opening soon, I hope.
FIRE THE HITTING COACH. Three quarters of a season have proven his inadequacy beyond a shadow of a doubt.
So many people give these young players the benefit of the doubt just because we want them to succeed so much. But looking at it objectively, just about every position player except Zimm and Morse are below average Major Leaguers. Desmond, Espi, Ramos have shown flashes but have backed that up with horrible stats for the year. None of them have proven they are good hitters for the long term. Really, why wouldn't we try any minor leaguer who has potential over anyone except Morse and Zimm? How much worse could they do?
Desmond would be having a better year statistically if he bunted every single AB. That sounds crazy but isn't it true?
Need a Billy Martin type manager, plain and simple. Davey looks tired, unenthused and clueless
You know, Nats fans did not seem quite so worked up about strikeouts last year. Why, I recall this one game when the first baseman struck out four times - three times swinging and once looking - and got a standing ovation. What changed?
Desmond would be having a better year statistically if he bunted every single AB. That sounds crazy but isn't it true?
No, because after a couple of games of doing that the other team would figure it out and he'd be out every time. He's batting well over .000 now without bunting every AB. As Yogi Berra once said, you could look it up.
Ehay my boy....come in the house and get a cool lemonade, its hot and muggy out there. A man could get heat stroke. There now.....here's a cool lemonade. Prop your feet up. Now...lets talk about Eck. Do it now? Wait till the end of the year? What do you think he writes on that clipboard?
As far as Eck goes, what worries me is the only guy I've seen make progress at the plate is Morse, everyone else has slid. Hitting coaches fault? Probably not but it sure doesn't seem like he has the solutions.
Feel Wood -- yeah, last year's first baseman was a likeable guy. And I really like him being in Chicago.
Is it possible to get two strikes with one swing? If there is, the Nationals will find a way.
ehay2K - are we still on for the game on the 24th?
Two strikes with one swing? Pretty sure Eck has that on his clipboard.
A full season of terrible plate decisions. That is what Eckstein has given us.
FIRE THE HITTING COACH.
NatsLady,
In Riggleman's lineup just before he quit; Werth was leadoff; right? and Desmond 9th. As I recall that was working out quite well for a while.
Then again I may be misremembering. Maybe Bernadina hit leadoff and Werth 2nd. In any event all attempts to insert Desmond or Espinosa at the top have definitely failed and they failed to a degree where it can pretty well be established that it's a bad idea.
BTW Derek Norris has been hitting 2nd at Harrisburg all year and despite his .206 BA he does get on base 37% of the time and he does have 17 home runs. I still think that he's the catcher of the future here and a good bet to bat 2nd.
Hey Navy Nats Fan. Yes. Still on. Meet by Ticket services to the left of CF gate just before you pass thru the turnstile?
Time?
In 23 career starts, the Nats have only scored 45 runs while Detwiler has been pitching. (RS) Check out Detwiler's advanced stats on fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2859&position=P). By no means am I saying he is a finished product, but that certainly skews the perception of his 3-12 career record.
ehay,
will all due respect I don't think that situational hitting is on the hitting coach. His job is to work on a hitter's stance, approach; breakdown the swing, hand position etc. I think that situational hitting is more the manager's domain.
How bad are the Nationals at the plate? The Nationals are so bad that they not only swing and miss the baseball, they sometimes don't even hit air. Think about.
Yes, Werth was hitting leadoff for a while under Riggs. No, I don't think it was working out, but I can check, will take a little time verify my recollection.
Feel Wood.... uh... Pudge has been in the dug out the past two nights.
I second the motion on Bo Porter. I'm tired of hearing DJ talk about "my" bullpen, "my" bench, "my" starting lineup. Etc. Go listen to the really good managers and listen to how many times they say "I" or "my."
-STH 5th year
ehay2k - 6:45pm at STH service window left of CF gates as you come in. See you then! And what state are you from, or have a strong connection to?
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