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US Presswire photo Jayson Werth is tagged out by catcher Carlos Corporan in the ninth inning. |
1. MARQUIS' STOCK GOES UP
From a competitive standpoint, the Nationals couldn't have gotten a better performance out of Jason Marquis than they did last night: eight innings of two-run ball, saving a bullpen that had been maxed out over the weekend in Atlanta.
From a long-term-planning standpoint, they couldn't have asked for anything more, either.
It's no secret each of Marquis' starts these days carries significant weight, with the July 31 trade deadline looming and scouts from across the majors chronicling his every move. Marquis' stock had perhaps taken a slight tumble before the All-Star break, especially when he was ravaged by the Pirates July 3 for seven runs in 1 1/3 innings.
But the veteran right-hander has gotten back on track his last two times out, authoring back-to-back quality starts. For the season, he's now 8-4 with a 3.92 ERA. His 12 quality starts rank second on the Nationals' staff (behind only Jordan Zimmermann's 14). His 1.97 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the best of his career.
Is Marquis the missing piece that will turn a contending club into a championship club? Probably not. But he'd be an upgrade in the No. 4 or No. 5 slot in a lot of rotations right now (Boston, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Arizona all come to mind as possible fits) and Mike Rizzo needs to strike while the iron is hot.
With Chien-Ming Wang on the verge of joining the rotation after two years of rehab on an injured shoulder, the Nationals need to clear a slot anyway. If you're Rizzo, sell high on Marquis.
2. WERTH COMPOUNDING HIS STRUGGLES
If you were watching the ninth inning of last night's game, you saw clutch hits from both Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse, putting the Nationals on top for good. You also saw an inexplicable act of baserunning by Jayson Werth, who got caught straying too far off third base on Wilson Ramos' pop-up to short.
As Charlie Slowes might have called it: "What was Jayson Werth thinking?! What was he watching?! Where was he going?!"
Werth's explanation to reporters afterward was that he was trying to get shortstop Angel Sanchez to throw to the plate, a throw that perhaps could have gone off-line and allowed either him to score or Rick Ankiel to advance from first to second base. But in that situation, with his team now up three runs in the ninth, it made no sense.
If it wasn't obvious already, Werth is really pressing, trying too hard to make something good happen to make up for his overwhelming struggles at the plate. And really, that's the worst thing he can do right now.
Look, one aggressive baserunning play isn't going to raise his batting average from .211 to .280. One throw from right field isn't going to raise his OPS in "late and close" situations -- defined by baseball-reference.com as coming in the seventh inning or later with your team tied, ahead by one or at least with the tying run on deck -- from .498 to 1.000.
There's undoubtedly all kinds of stuff running through Werth's head right now. The best thing he could do is block that all out and simply go play baseball the way he has his entire life. He's got the natural ability to do it, but he seems to keep letting his head get in the way.
3. STRASTEMBER LOOKING LIKELY
After Stephen Strasburg threw live BP Wednesday in Viera, I suggested the possibility of a September return to the Nationals was looking more likely for the young right-hander. Well, after he threw a simulated game there yesterday and, according to Davey Johnson, topped out at 95 mph, that looks even more likely.
Strasburg has roughly reached the equivalent of mid-spring training in his progression. Which means he's about five-to-six weeks away from being ready to start a big-league game.
Figure he pitches another simulated game or two in Viera, then heads off on a much-anticipated, minor-league rehab assignment once the calendar shifts to August. He'll have 30 days to complete that rehab assignment, after which the Nats will need to make a decision.
Obviously, plenty can still change between now and then. But at this point, a September return for Strasburg sure looks inevitable.
132 comments:
Mark, Nice wrap-up on Marquis. Trade him and sign him in the Fall.
Maybe Werth needs daily conjugal visits to help him relax.
You have Coffey, Marquis, and Nix as 3 trade chips to possibly get decent return. I just don't know where the "DEPTH" is that Rizzo is talking about that are the 1A behind the 1 to step into a traded players shoes, and I don't know what he thinks he gets for any of the 3.
Wang is no sure thing if he takes Jason Marquis spot.
We have already discussed that there is no extra outfielder ready to step up from the Minors if Nix is traded so it is a matter of what I suggested before that Marrero becomes the 1st baseman so Morse goes back to LF or Ankiel plays every day then it is a downgrade.
Coffey would also be replaced by who? Colin Balester? Who replaces Sean Burnett who is the big problem in the bullpen now.
I'm not sure trading Marquis is an answer. What piece are we going to get in return? Prospects? We need that leadoff man, top-of-the-rotation starter, or mid/late innings reliever. are we going to get that for Marquis? No way.
Marquis has stated that he wants to remain in Washington. We can sign him for another two years at a reasonable price at the end of the year after he finishes 12-12 with a 4.34 ERA.
He's a good 3/4/5 starter for a lot of teams, including us in 2012 & 2013 when we make our run for the pennant.
Call me superstitious, but I cringed at "inevitable." Baseball has a way of avoiding the darnedest things. But good news.
That was Werth's explanation? Srsly?
I thought he was just going up the line in case it fell, and slipped getting back, which would be clumsy, but it happens. That was on purpose? Man. "Don't think. It can only hurt the ballclub."
He really does need to abandon all hope.
Do. Or do not.
and the captcha on the last one was
"kerchomp"
Gotta be a way to use that for Bernadina.
Steve M...
I think there's depth in our middle infield, catching, and starting pitching.
Do I want Rizzo to break up our DP combo? No. But Desi seems so lost right now. Gotta believe that Lombardozi will be a Sept call-up and get audition-playing time.
I also gotta believe REckstein is gone at the end of the year. The approaches of Werth and Desi are pathetic and except for one game in Atlanta for Werth, there's no sign of improvement or hope.
Werth needs what Sam said above or Lasik surgery (like Guzzie).
The Nats should sign Marquis unless they get a major upgrade, an unlikely event. But just as an exercise, can anybody tell me who the top three prospects are for 1) the New York Yankees, 2) the Boston Red Sox, 3) the Texas Rangers, 4) the Cleveland Indians, 5) the Detroit Tigers, 6) the Milwaukee Brewers, 7) the St. Louis Cardinals, 8) the Pittsburgh Pirates, and 9) the Arizona Diamondbacks?
BTW - Sec 3... you were hilarious last night.
Good stuff there, Sec3.
As to The Inevitable Return, I know nobody else will, but I'm sticking with Stras Hashana.
He's not lost--he's playing excellent shortstop and hitting in the wrong part of the order. Put him at 2, he'll be fine.
First of all, love the Charlie Slowes reference. That is one of my favorite comments of all time, and my fantasy team is actually named "WHERE WAS HE GOING?!?"
Second, as for trade pieces, there's a lot of guys that I could see moved by the deadline (of course, I don't expect ALL of these guys to be moved, but these are the best bets to be dealt):
Marquis
Clippard
Coffey
Pudge
Nix
Desmond
And here's a couple guys I don't think are as likely, but I could conceive of a deal sending them out of town
Storen (MLBTraderumors has lots of teams calling on him)
Morse (Talk about "sell high.")
Bernadina (Highly unlikely, given the glut of solid outfielders likely to be available at the break)
Flores (If a deal for Pudge falls through, I could see this as a possible work around)
My Two Cents?
Clippard and Coffey should be moved if the right deal comes around. Coffey is a no brainer, and as much as we all love Clippard, middle relievers are just not that valuable long term. Clip and Desmond for Bourn? Yes please
Storen is a slightly difference case, given age, cost, team control, and flat out talent. There's an argument that "closers" are no different than middle relievers (and shouldn't be deployed as such either), but the guy is good, and can get the outs in whatever situation we need.
We need an outfielder who speaks Bernadina-ese.
DFL, somebody surely can tell you that. I'd suggest Baseball America, because I've heard of them. I just put that into a Google, and one of the results, right there on the results page, is "Organization Top 10 Prospects."
Enjoy!
Now I'm trying to figure out where "results" would be, other than "on the results page." I also probably left out the word top.
Clearly, I must DFA my typist.
Anonymous said...
BTW - Sec 3... you were hilarious last night.
July 19, 2011 10:42 AM
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Really? Where was I? And did I leave my pants there? I can't find my good belt.
Anonymous said...
Steve M...
I think there's depth in our middle infield, catching, and starting pitching.
Do I want Rizzo to break up our DP combo? No. But Desi seems so lost right now. Gotta believe that Lombardozi will be a Sept call-up and get audition-playing time.
I also gotta believe REckstein is gone at the end of the year. The approaches of Werth and Desi are pathetic and except for one game in Atlanta for Werth, there's no sign of improvement or hope.
Werth needs what Sam said above or Lasik surgery (like Guzzie). July 19, 2011 10:40 AM
Yes, there is depth in starting pitching but not MLB ready. Anyone you lose, you are looking at Detwiler, Maya, Wang, etc. replacing an actual MLB quality pitcher.
You aren't trading Ramos so your depth is Pudge or Flores who are mediocre backups which won't bring in big trade value.
There is no depth in the bullpen that can be replaced. It is fragile and working by over-working the studs you have.
I think it would be a big mistake to move a Gold Glove calibre player in Espinosa over to shortstop. You change the player sometimes by changing positions. It could affect his entire mindset. Trading Desmond at this point doesn't make sense as you are selling low anyway.
I think Rizzo is itching to make a trade and get a Matt Capps/Ramos type of return.
I think Bernadina has done a good job in leadoff and this is no longer the big glaring hole it was 2 months ago.
I have no issues if Rizzo holds firm and doesn't trade anyone and lets the chips fall where they may after the season although if he can trade Marquis or Livo for an overwhelming great deal then that is fine also. I would try to do what the Orioles just did with JJ Hardy and earnestly try to work on extensions with some of the pending Free Agents to be.
I can't believe people are suggesting signing Marquis for 2 years. Is Jim Bowden posting here under an assumed name? This is a classic buy high move (not quite as dumb as signing Werth for 7 years) which we should avoid at all costs.
Scooter said...
As to The Inevitable Return, I know nobody else will, but I'm sticking with Stras Hashana.
--------
I was considering that, Scooter, but figured it would be better for Danny Rasha'nosa. What's Hebrew for "rookie"?
W.C. Fields: Bartender, was I in here last night, and did I spend a $50 bill?
Bartender (Shemp Howard): Yes, sir.
Fields: AHH! What a load that is off my mind!
I thought I'd lost it.
Steve M,
Wang takes over for Marquis.
Strassburg takes over from Zimmermann
Milone is just about ready for a callup, Stammen is a decent option for long relief/spot start.
If Wang works out give him 1 year at $3 mil if not sign somebody else in the off season. Pitchers like Jason Marquis are not that hard to find.
Apologies if this has been covered here recently, but given Rizzo's offseason efforts, we'd be niaive to think he's not calling the Rox every day inquiring about Jimenez. 27-yr-old ace in a hitters park, under team control for years? A better option than every guy Rizzo tried for last year, including Greinke. What would it take to get it done? Norris, Peacock, Storen and Desmond? I love our guys, but I'd jump on that in a second (think the Rox would want more, though). Thoughts?
Oh, and yes trade Marquis. I wonder if the BoSox would give up someone like Alex Wilson or Alex Hassan for him.
NatsLady - you mean Dutch? What I have noticed about Bernie in the outfield is this -- if the ball is clearly his he makes ridiculous plays. He had two plays in the top 12 in mlbs top plays of the first half. When someone else is out there - especially a veteran like Werth or Ankiel - he seems to either step back or not take charge by calling it. I think the issue is centerfield leadership and communication, not ability. Last night I actually think the problem was that he IS getting used to taking charge in center and had just moved to left.That made Ankiel in charge, who has not played many innings there in a while. Anywhere on the diamond, you play better and communicate better when you are in your regular configuration and have guys next to you that you are used to.Last year in Desi's first full year at ss he had lots of decision-making type errors. I see Bernie as having those type issues this year. And as for Desi - struggling at the plate for the most part as shown by his average, but can still take the walk -- hitting 8th is ugly and plays a role in it. Defensively he has stepped up his game by miles. He offers a lot to this team and many bigger names than his with more experience have struggled this year offensively, too. Stras Hashana - love it!
Ankiel has been playing games (full game with Nix out) and late inning replacement since he came back. I was trying to watch his lips and I don't think he called Bernie off because it probably didn't occur to him Bernie was going to run in front of him.
Bernie needed to remember he was playing LF and trust Ankiel to get what was clearly his ball. On the other hand, though his decision was bad, you gotta admire the effort.
Re: Marquis. Unfortunately, you have to make the decision on him before you know how well Wang is going to do. It's looking good right now, but, but, but. My feeling is, you got a bird in hand. Not the greatest bird... but you're not going to get a top lead-off outfielder for him, so why not stay put?
If Wang doesn't make it, I wouldn't be against a rotation of
Zim'nn, Stras, Lannan, Marquis, and prospect.
Trade Gorzy and send Livo to the bullpen.
Marquis likes it here. Of course he does - even if he really doesn't.
When was the last time a ballplayer, with free agency coming in the offseason, has said he doesn't like playing where he is currently playing?
Players don't do that. They don't eliminate a suitor for their skills.
He really might want to stay here, but he'll be extremely happy no matter where he is next year. His comments mean nothing.
JD, I don't agree about Marquis; last year was an abberation for him and can be written off because of his elbow. Some on this board will never forgive him for the multiple poor outings last year and I understand that; take away last year and he's a darn good pitcher, albeit getting older. If I had a choice between him or Livo to throw for 2 more years I'd take Marquis in a heartbeat.
As for Clip, as Ive stated before you move him if you are overwhelmed with an offer but you don't move him just to do it. I think Desmond is a Rizzo type player and he isn't going anywhere and with his struggles at the plate this year it isn't like we'd be getting anything of note for him.
Coffey, Pudge and Nix I think have stopped buying green bananas. I wish them well wherever they land, all players I like and I hope they enjoy playing in a pennant race.
Big fan of the Yo lo tengo story. I think that there is even a group or song named after it, so it makes me think that it is true (or so well told that it has 'become' true).
Trades: no 'win-2011' trades, meaning don't trade anything for a guy with an expiring contract. Marquis - he isn't coming back. He'll get a multi year offer on the market, and while Rizzo may go for 1 more year, he won't go more than that. So we should base our trade thoughts solely on the value of his 2011 wins over his Nats replacement (he will certainly be better than anyone we bring up this year). So if we can get more value in players than Marquis adds this year, I say do it. Otherwise, keep him. This would be my guiding rule of thumb for Nix and Coffey too.
Rizzo has said several times that he will be a buyer and seller: I hope what he means is that he will trade expiring contracts if he likes the value coming back, and trade guys under contract or prospects for a quality player at a position of need that we can keep for a few years. I keep coming back to CF, as have several others. There is no organizational answer here. Not Bernie (athletic, good player, not a long term CF), certainly not Harper. I would love to see them get a CF now, and the trade deadline is a time that gets everyone thinking about remaking their team. I have said that I like Denard Span best, but there are several others like Bourjos that work well too. But it will take real value to get those guys. If that means a Peacock and/or Norris, or even other pieces that I would rather keep, like Clip, Desi or even Storen, I would pay that price because we have more organizational depth at those positions.
I have a hunch that JZimm's season has made Rizzo calm down a little on the #1 starter thing.
If all they did was trade for a CF and keep everyone else, I would be pretty happy.
NatsLady,
Would you give Marquis another 2 years at $7.5 mil per?
NatinBeanTown,
I would do that trade but the Rox won't. They would want Zimmermann in the mix.
I must admit that I cringe a lot during these trade discussions. It's funny how fans get attached to players. I am seriously nervous about seeing Clip go - he has been a favorite of mine for a while. Although I would wish him well, I also would kind of like to keep Nix - I like his style of play and he has grown on me quickly this year. He has grit,baseball smarts and is great off the bench in late innings. I know it's part of the game, but - ouch.
Wally said...
Big fan of the Yo lo tengo story. I think that there is even a group or song named after it, so it makes me think that it is true (or so well told that it has 'become' true).
Wally, I'd forgotten that, but I believe it's so:
www.yolatengo.com.
JD-- horrors! Tell the Rox to keep their grubby paws off Zimmermann! By the way - am I the only one who sees Z double N as the number one starter next year? I think Stras should be 2 for his first year back. After that - they can fight it out or be co-aces ala Halladay and Lee. Don't you just love the sound of that?
The guy that would bring the most is Morse. It would suck for this year but La Roche would be coming back and there are a couple recent draftees on the horizon, Harper and Rendon, who might fill in a couple slots in the outfield.
As always, it would depend upon what you got back.
SCNatsFan,
Check this out. This does not say 'darn good pitcher' to me. More like 'mediocre' with only one above average year (2009).
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=105&position=P
Re: Clip. Yes, very attached. Just got my "Fear the Goggles" tee shirt. What to do with my Nyjer Morgan No. 1 jersey?
Re: Marquis. The salary is high, no doubt. But you aren't going to get another decent FA starter for less, so you are just trading one for the other. If I could see in the crystal ball that Wang and prospects were going to work, yes. I don't have that crystal ball.
Trading Marquis: keep in mind that any return on a trade is a net gain, even if it's organization guys, "inventory." They're only trading him for August and September, for a season wherein they aren't contending.
Suppose he would have twelve starts in that time, max, and go 6-3 with 3 NDs. That's optimistic, I think, under the circumstances.
Whoever they bring in to replace him is unlikely to go 0-12. So we're talking maybe a three-game swing.
Couple of notes from last night:
-Sec 3, your story WAS hilarious (I have already passed it along)
-Pudge was and never will be mediocre.
-Werth has either got to stop seeing the new team psychologist OR start seeing him, his recent streak is truly mind-boggling.
-Morse is a beast, albeit a friendly one
Pretty sure that there is zero chance of JZimm being traded now. I think an extension is much more likely than a trade.
And I know Gonat said in another thread that Greinke confirmed JZimm was in that offer, I am not 100% positive that I believe it.
Although, "mediocre" or MLB-average IS pretty good. By definition, it's better than replacement level.
"And I know Gonat said in another thread that Greinke confirmed JZimm was in that offer, I am not 100% positive that I believe it. "
I meant that I am not sure that I believe that Greinke had it right
Why move anyone? This has been a fun year. If Zimmerman didn't get hurt and Werth was hitting even 250 we would be right in this thing. Leave it alone. We don't want to go backwards. One Dan Snyder in town is enough.
S.C.
Marquis has five seasons with an ERA above 5.
He has had two seasons with an ERA below 4.
If that's "pretty darn good," then I'm a better singer than I thought.
Sec3,
Yes but a team of replacement players is calculated to win about 40 games a year so in order to get to about 90 you need everyone to be above replacement level so you can see where a regular player who is in the everyday lineup but only contributes 0.5 wins in 96 games is a problem.
So - about 12 days in the trading period. Then -- when is the deadline for signing the new people? During that time we have to come home and face the NL East beasts( my apologies to MM) some more.Sounds like things are going to be hopping in Natstown for the next month. I think there will also be plenty of action in our minor league cities with rehab starts and new guys breaking in. Sounds like fun. Just turned on WJFK in the car.( I know, why, why, why - they are such morons about baseball) Of course, they are totally sure that not one person in the entire metro dc area will pay one minute of attention to baseball now that the "no fun league" is coming back. If they only knew - I kind of feel sorry for them, missing all the fun and intrigue.GYFNG!!!
Never heard that Charlie Slowes clip. That was one of the funniest calls I have ever heard. Thanks for the link.
On Werth, the $126 million ruined him. His entire psyche changed for the worse. He cannot live-up to the expectations he put on himself and it has handicapped him. If he had signed for a reasonable contract, say $60 million over five years it would have equal his actual (no pun intended) worth. As far as his ability to perform on the field and for him specifically, too much money has become his poison, IMO...
Jayson Werth isn't going anywhere including the bench. He earned his contract and deserves it. It is based on past performance. We would do well to root for him. His success will mean success for the Nats.
Unterp, I can't disagree with you, it appears Werth is having trouble living up to his own expectations. To me it appears every AB he is looking, praying for a walk.
As for Marquis, I look at the same stats some of you do and see a reliable starter, something we've been pining for in DC for years; to let him walk because he isn't Cliff Lee with the thought something better is on its way isn't, IMHO, a wise thing to do. If he signs for a reasonable amount to stay here I say offer him the contract.
JD, yes, but an innings-eating starter with a WAR of 1.6 ought to be worth something, no?
SCNatsFan said...
I agree with you on Marquis. I would not offer him more than three years, but would prefer two. Additionally, no one outside of the Nationals will off Marquis more than two..
Marquis will be traded. He is an innings eater, but offers little else. Also, a win over a horrible Astros team is not going to significantly change his trade value. Marquis is not going to bring a top prospect, but he might bring a guy with upside, who the Nats think that they can develop (a player similar to Sean Burnett a couple of year ago).
Marquis will be traded because he is not in the Nats long-term plans, and they appear to be developing decent pitching depth in the system. To re-sign Marquis would take at least a two deal, and the Nats expect to have better starting pitching options by 2013.
I assure you that even when I criticize Jayson Werth I am rooting for him all the way. His success = Nats success. I find myself thinking - wouldn't it be a great story if he broke out right here and won the game? But, alas - my fairy tale fizzles. His head has to be one giant nightmare right now. Even though it's painful - I think the only thing that the nats can do is just let him keep playing and hope for the best. Hopefully Ankiel has talked to him since he went through a giant, public breakdown and has reinvented himself. Looking forward to seeing Jordan pitch tonight - always a baseball treat. I find that when I think of Jordan, Strassie, LannEn and __tbd__ and __tbd___ starting games next year and Storen ending them - I kind of need a bib to catch the drool. Add to that a nice infield 4, 2 good catchers, some decent outfielders and a partridge in a pear tree and it's giddy time!
Gonatsgo, the draft signing deadline is midnight, Aug.15.
Werth reminds of a dog that was just run over by a car, not dead, just crippled. As a Nats' fan I am willing to adopt him and show him some love. He's pathetic but he needs succor but he makes it damn hard.
Anonymous said 12:42 PM. You're probably right...
NatinBeantown said...
Apologies if this has been covered here recently, but given Rizzo's offseason efforts, we'd be niaive to think he's not calling the Rox every day inquiring about Jimenez. 27-yr-old ace in a hitters park, under team control for years? A better option than every guy Rizzo tried for last year, including Greinke. What would it take to get it done? Norris, Peacock, Storen and Desmond? I love our guys, but I'd jump on that in a second (think the Rox would want more, though). Thoughts?
Oh, and yes trade Marquis. I wonder if the BoSox would give up someone like Alex Wilson or Alex Hassan for him.
July 19, 2011 11:12 AM
____________________________________
Thoughts? How's about for starters not throwing in Desmond. Why would the Rox want Desmond when they have Tulowitzki.
Most of this trade talk is pie in the sky and see no reason why the Rockies are looking to deal their #1 guy.
I'd say at this point he's certainly earned an Opening Day start next year at the very least.
gonatsgo said...
JD-- horrors! Tell the Rox to keep their grubby paws off Zimmermann! By the way - am I the only one who sees Z double N as the number one starter next year? I think Stras should be 2 for his first year back. After that - they can fight it out or be co-aces ala Halladay and Lee. Don't you just love the sound of that?
One thing is for sure with CMW coming up one starter has to be traded. I think Marquis will get one more start and then he will be traded.Not expecting anything amazing in return.
Interesting how CMW has become a bit of an unfortunate leverage chip against us in trade possibilities for pitchers since other teams know that we must get rid of one already.
Anyone who pencils Wang in for anything productive at this point is seeing something I'm not seeing. Should he have another productive minor league start and be promoted you just have to wonder how long his shoulder will hold out. Rooting for him but I've been rooting for him for 2 years.
I have been saying with Marquis that he is a freak of the statistics. Take his ERA and WHIP and throw it out the window and look at what he does for the teams he plays for and that is enter games as the starting pitcher that ends in wins. Marquis is 8-4 and team is an amazing 13-6 in games Marquis starts is a .685 win percentage. It generally takes a .568 season win percentage to win 92 games and make the playoffs. Conversely, the team is 6-14 in games Livan starts for a .300 winning percentage.
I can't explain why it happens but last night was another example. He has the most similar stats to Livan and the team doesn't win for Livan.
Whatever it is you take it and re-sign him for 2 more years and hope it continues. Statistically it doesn't look promising but he is a statistical anomaly and just about his whole career he has helped his teams get into the playoffs. Yes, a winner April to July and a loser August to September.
If this team is in contention for the playoffs next year, that is when you rent an Ace for the playoff push so I really think if you extend Marquis you have enough pitchers for the rotation for next year and Rizzo can concentrate on the spare parts.
Opening Day 2012
1) Stephen Strasburg (140 to 160 innings)
2) Jordan Zimmermann
3) John Lannan
4) Jason Marquis
5) Tom Gorzelanny/Tom Milone/Brad Peacock/Chien-Ming Wang
Bullpen
1) Drew Storen (closer)
2) Tyler Clippard
3) Ross Detwiler
4) Henry Rodriguez
5) Ryan Mattheus
6) Vacant LH
7) Livan Hernandez (long man)
Outfield
1) Michael Morse LF
2) Roger Bernadina CF
3) Jayson Werth RF
4) Laynce Nix - reserve
5) Vacant RH outfielder
Infield
1) Adam LaRoche 1st (Against LH pitching Morse)
2) Danny Espinosa 2B
3) Ian Desmond SS
4) Ryan Zimmerman
5) Vacant
6) Vacant
Catcher
1) Wilson Ramos
2) Ivan Rodriguez
Now figure how you get Rendon and Bryce Harper into that equation. I guess a lot depends on a healthy Adam LaRoche and extending contracts of Nix, Marquis and Pudge and Livan as your long man in the bullpen.
That is a playoff team there if Jayson Werth is healthy and figures it all out again and the pitching improves overall from this season.
In the off-season, if you can upgrade at SS in Free Agency then do it and Desmond becomes your utility guy. Try to trade LaRoche and see if you can find a superior lead-off man.
In my scenario, I am only trading Todd Coffey unless the most unbelievable deal is there for the taking.
P2P-
Of course, I'll admit I didn't even consider positional need. It's mostly a thought exercise and a test of our farm system... do we have enough talent depth to go get a star in a trade and not empty the cupboard? I'm not sure, but I do know the answer this time last year was NO. The system is finally coming along; Z'nn's comeback and Peacock and Lombardozzi's ascension have really helped.
Exposremains said... One thing is for sure with CMW coming up one starter has to be traded. I think Marquis will get one more start and then he will be traded.Not expecting anything amazing in return. July 19, 2011 1:10 PM
Jordan Zimmermann is done in 30 days so Wang can take his spot. When Strasburg comes up rosters are expanded.
Why as you say would you trade Marquis and "not expecting anything amazing in return".
You don't make trades for the sake of making trades. I still believed Nyjer Morgan should have been sent to AAA instead of traded for a Cutter Dykstra.
/random musings on
Finally watched the tape (well, digital video or whatever - but I'm old school so I say tape) of the broadcast. Also caught up with reading the comments. sec3 *was* funny, as usual, and my thanks to the humble play-by-play man, Navy Nats Fan. Nice win, and great the Marquis went deep and gave the 'pen a break (well, Storen excepted).
Re. the Slowes call, a real blast from the past, though I seem to recall not finding the situation all that funny at the time.
Re. trade talk, I don't cringe, but I don't get exercised about it, either. Until something actually happens, or doesn't, it's all just white noise, blather, and speculation to me. But, to those who like doing so or reading such musings - enjoy.
Re. SS, will be nice to see him on the bump, but must we really have an Official Event Name for his return? Can't. Stomach. The. Hype. And I'm not sure it does the kids/prospects any favors, either. That said, I do realize it's the interwebz and all, not to mention a losing battle. But when it comes to pass, I'm gonna call it just another Nats game, with just one of our pitchers starting. I'll be rooting for him and all, just like I will for the other 8 players on the field.
/irandom musings off
Steve M.
In my scenario, I am only trading Todd Coffey unless the most unbelievable deal is there for the taking.
He doesn't appear on your bullpen list, though.
Upon rereading my post, I will add: and all you kids get off my lawn!! Heh. Did I mention that it's really hot in my office?
(Oh, and I'll root for Werth with you, pos.)
If Andy MacFAIL and the loser Angelo$ can get a shortstop like JJ Hardy to extend his contract for 3 years $7.3 million a year for that loser team then why can't Rizzo get some key players extended like Marquis and Nix.
What are they waiting for on Ryan Zimmerman to lock him up for 7 more years and while they are at it they can extend Michael Morse.
Trading away players while you have a chance to end 2011 with a winning record changes the mindset in Washington. The playoffs are a 99:1 shot this year, but a winning record if you improve with what you have in the Minors is a better than even money shot. Maybe next year Rizzo won't have to beg and overpay for Free Agents to come to Washington. Ponder that for a while.
WINNING!!!!
Breaking news from the Sports Fix:
Danny Espinosa to lead off tonight and Roger Bernadina will hit 7th!
How about those apples...
Sec 3, My Sofa said...
Steve M.
In my scenario, I am only trading Todd Coffey unless the most unbelievable deal is there for the taking.
He doesn't appear on your bullpen list, though.
July 19, 2011 1:48 PM
That's right, my bullpen listing is for 2012. I am trading Coffey for a LH Minor League stud. No big trades needed. Push for a winning record and respectability.
Tcost- but Desmond still 8th? Who's hitting second?
OK, then it seems odd to just assume Rizzo will get "the most unbelievable deal," and for a lefty at that.
The manager was interviewed, he didn't say the whole lineup, just those nuggets.
Geez, I hope he's not putting Werth back down there.
up there.
whatever.
Did he say why?
Well SteveM, looks like you got Rizzo extending contracts and not trading. I don't think LaRoche starts on Opening Day and you have to wonder about the future of Werth. The CF of the future who can leadoff is my priority #1 if that player is a upgrade over Bernadina.
I think it is time in the off-season to get Jose Reyes as the only acquisition needed.
Werth may become the most expensive bench player in history.
Yes, JA Happ is a lefty pitcher and he wants Espi to leadoff just against lefties.
Couple of questions. What's the sports fix? Who is "the manager" who was interviewed? Astros? Nats?
They can't bench Werth just for hitting .200, sad to say. They have so much time and money locked up that it's just not an option this early in the deal.
OTOH, the captcha for this was
falacies
1a, the Sports Fix is a radio show, and the manager would be Davey (the guy who makes out the Nats lineup).
I guess I'm (grudgingly) with you, Steve M., on re-signing Marquis. Your citing of his W-L record.... I take no comfort in, though. It seems like you're simply expecting his luck to hold, and it seems to me that, if there's no good excuse fir a chain of events, then it's not wise to expect it to continue. For me, signing him is a hedge... I'll be disappointed, if Wang/Milone/Peacock (pick one...) isn't on the opening day roster, and also if #5 isn't a better option to Jason, by this time next year, either by trade, or another youngster.
I think I'd let Jason go now, for a decent OF prospect, though.... definitely our thinnest area....
GYFNG!!!!
OK, if he's having Espinosa lead off against a lefty, and therefore hit RH, maybe he puts a LH/SH in the 2-hole--is Cora starting? He wouldn't hit Ankiel second, I hope.
I'll take Hairston in the #2 spot for $200, Alex.
Mark'd said...
Well SteveM, looks like you got Rizzo extending contracts and not trading. I don't think LaRoche starts on Opening Day and you have to wonder about the future of Werth. The CF of the future who can leadoff is my priority #1 if that player is a upgrade over Bernadina.
I think it is time in the off-season to get Jose Reyes as the only acquisition needed.
Werth may become the most expensive bench player in history. July 19, 2011 2:06 PM
If you only need to add 1 impact player next year, Jose Reyes will be at the top of the list. His durability is going to be in question as I am sure he is looking for a long-term deal.
The Lerners getting snake bit on Werth is going to sting for a while which is why a few contract extensions would be a way to ease back in.
Ryan Zimmerman is going to need $18.25 million a year and Morse will be up to $6 million a year. Rendon, Meyers, Goodwin and Purke all need a share of Mr. Lerner's wallet also.
Hairston is starting, batting 8th, didn't get who's batting 2nd...
what happen to my post? I posted about ESPI leading off, now it disapperared!
??
Espinosa
Desmond
Zimmerman
Morse
Ramos
Werth
Bernadina
Hairston (just back, got to get him in)
Zimmermann
Steve M - I'll be shocked if they sign Purke. He turned down $4m a few years ago, had an injury plagued season and isn't playing in the Cape this summer. I just can't see the Nats going very high (to $3m, say) or Purke accepting anything less when he can go back for his junior season. Even a hard slot would pay the top 5 picks substantially more than that, and I bet he rolls the dice.
Hope that I am wrong.
... or maybe Hairston 2nd and Desmond 8th, but I'd do it the other way 'round.
I thought he said Hair was second, with Bernie in the 7-hole...
Wally wins an Internet, I think. We'll see when the lineups are posted.
Unkyd said...
I guess I'm (grudgingly) with you, Steve M., on re-signing Marquis. Your citing of his W-L record.... I take no comfort in, though. It seems like you're simply expecting his luck to hold, and it seems to me that, if there's no good excuse fir a chain of events, then it's not wise to expect it to continue. For me, signing him is a hedge... I'll be disappointed, if Wang/Milone/Peacock (pick one...) isn't on the opening day roster, and also if #5 isn't a better option to Jason, by this time next year, either by trade, or another youngster.
I think I'd let Jason go now, for a decent OF prospect, though.... definitely our thinnest area....
GYFNG!!!!
I can't disagree with what you said. I think luck is what you would call it but Marquis has had this luck over most of his career until last year. His own winning percentage (not the team) April to July in his entire career is now .585 going 76-54. His career winning percentage stands at .520 and there is a large enough sample size for a pitcher with 263 career starts to say it is a positive pattern.
The Nats also have the opportunity in September of sitting him some starts when they expand the rosters.
I agree with Steve M, that to trade away pieces of our team, unless it's dor something wonderful Now AND later, just sends to wrong message to the team and to us. And I'd like to sign Marquis, too. That we win with him on the mound matters. Even if the Braves don't collapse and make the WC chase real,there is a lot at stake in pride and just general good jeuge to finish at .500.
I am one of the people too attached to Clip to stand seeing him traded. And beyond that, we will need to depend on him for the foreseeable future.
Finally, Desi is getting it. I don't understand why people don't see that. We keep him till the end of the year, for sure, if I were in charge.
But.sigh. I'm not.
And... speaking of My Boy...Desi is apparently unrestricted, after this season.... How much interest do y'all think they'll be...?
A friend of mine just emailed me this from Adam Kilgore. Now I have been writing about Jason Marquis's incredible win percentage for weeks and today Kilgore writes his piece (coincidence, I think not!):
From Kilgore...By now, we all know the folly of assessing a pitcher with win-loss record as the primary metric. But, with that being said, Jason Marquis can lay claim to a simple and impressive feat: This season, only five starting pitchers have led their team to wins with greater frequency.
After Marquis’s eight-inning, nine-strikeout, two-run performance last night, the Nationals are 13-6 in games he starts. That ties him with Mark Buehrle for the sixth-best winning percentage on days he starts, behind Roy Halladay (16-4), Jair Jurrjens (13-4), CC Sabathia (16-5), Josh Beckett (13-5) and Ivan Nova.
Of course, there are outside factors tumbling atop outside factors here. The Nationals have scored an average of 5.7 runs in games Marquis has started, and the rest of the Nationals’ rotation has to be wondering how to get some of that. The Nats have scored, on average, 3.6 runs for John Lannan, 3.4 for Livan Hernandez, 3.2 for Jordan Zimmermann and 3.2 for Tom Gorzelanny.
The Nationals’ .684 winning percentage on days Marquis takes the mound, though, does speak to his consistency, if not dominance. Marquis is third among Nats starters with a 3.94 ERA, which is about league average for a starter. But he’s thrown a quality start – at least six innings, three or fewer earned runs – in 12 of 19 outings. Only Jordan Zimmermann, with 14 in 18 starts, has more. (And the Nationals are only 10-8 in games he starts.)
Marquis has had some good fortune, but he’s also given the Nationals a chance to win most of the time he’s taken the mound.
I thought we were keeping the line up the same everyday? I thought the one we had last night was good. Love the protection of having espi/zim/morse together. You just can't pitcher around them. An if Bernie is on -- look out!
My guess is Uncle Ted asks for Strasburg to be wheeled out for one game in September to beef up attendance numbers during a series that would otherwise be empty, my guess is everyone will be buying their tickets for the 1:05pm game against the miserable Dodgers on September 8th.
I would prefer that in order to get Strasburg some work they use him out of the bullpen a few times per week for the month of September.
Oops.. False alarm..... Bad info. Arb eligible in 2013...
Always double check.....
SteveM, you have been pushing the Marquis dominance for over a month and your Type A / Type B free agency also. Always way ahead of the curve.
OK, thought experiment: if Marquis had done last year what he's on a pace for this year (and carries that out), then would he be a Type B?
I'm guessing yes. An argument in favor of making a good offer for one year.
Y'all remember what it was like in 2006,7,8,9? Playing out the string? That's what Werth seems like to me right now, he is just playing out the string. I had hoped the All-Star Break would be enough, but apparently not. I wish he could go on the DL, for at least a month, maybe for the rest of the year, and come back with a fresh start. I don't see sitting him, or sending to 'Cuse or any other idea.
So, let him play, pretend he's a pitcher at the plate, let him get his walks, and wait for next year, end of story. If he gets better, be happy, if he doesn't, we're at .500 anyway, so we should be happy. You can't worry about the money, that's already spent.
Steve M. said...
A friend of mine just emailed me this from Adam Kilgore. Now I have been writing about Jason Marquis's incredible win percentage for weeks and today Kilgore writes his piece (coincidence, I think not!):
You have indeed. Even if it was a coincidence, you were there first. (If it were me, I'd politely ask AK if my research figured in his research. Just for fun.)
But they can't just throw up their hands on Werth. This season is toast, for him, pretty much, but they have to find a way. Even if it's just to wait this out. Something.
I've considered him unbenchable, but after that move last night, I think maybe that is the next move. Get him out of there before he hurts himself worse. Hitting .200 is one thing--turning into Nook on the bases is too much.
Sec 3, My Sofa said...
OK, thought experiment: if Marquis had done last year what he's on a pace for this year (and carries that out), then would he be a Type B?
I'm guessing yes. An argument in favor of making a good offer for one year.
July 19, 2011 2:54 PM
Based on Elias stats, almost definitely using 2 years like 2011 a Type B and possibly a Type A depending on who declares for Free Agency.
Since it is a 2 year average he walks this year with no compensation unless he is traded while under team control or his contract is extended.
To SteveM,
I just don't think that Marquis has as much value as we would like to think. Would you trade a great prospect for him? I do think that he doesn't have value long term for the Nats. I would be shocked if they resigned him. I think its better to get an ok prospect than to keep Marquis. I would trade Livan Gorzo before him though.
NatsLady - It would very nice if Jayson Werth pretended to be a pitcher at the plate since most of them hit better than he does. Question for NI bloggers who have time to research these things -- it seems to me that our pitchers, as a whole starting staff, are pretty good hitters -is it true? is this unusual or is it a new trend in mlb? Or am I just so starved to see a hit of any kind that I celebrate wildly whenever I see one? All of our starters have hits now -- plus - I also think our pitchers are all pretty nifty bunters. As much as we yadda, yadda, yadda - don't like to give up outs - yadda, yadda, yadda - I love a good sac bunt to move the runner into scoring position. I know it's different when pitchers do it than when position players do it -- Espi laid down a beauty last night. I like some small ball! Home runs are just so gaudy ;)
Mark, thanks for the Charlie link on Nook Logan's brain freeze. One cannot listen to that enough to realize how far this team has come, even with Jayson Werth's brain freeze last night. Understatement of the year: "If it wasn't obvious by now, Werth is really pressing."
Only like a Chinese laundry.
GYFNG!!
Hmmm well seeing that Davey Johnson is about to try Espinosa out as lead off I am thinking BJ Upton ... definitely, seriously NOT Michael Bourn who WOULD NEVER BE WORTH the prospects they would have to give up to get him. Zach Grienke an ace starting pitcher is one thing ...
BUT I am sorry people but its pretty silly to treat Bourn like he is a difference maker. HE'S NOT period. Grienke perhaps yes. Bourn definitely NOT.
Michael Morse is more of a difference maker that that guy and I doubt any of you would trade the sparse and few prospects the Nats have for him? STOP already?
Upton has a lot more upside than Bourn and they similar ages. Upton features some pretty decent power and he is the better fielder with an arm to go with it.
You can take this to the bank: Jordan Zimmermann and Danny Espinosa are now as untouchable as Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. Or Ryan Zimmerman. Trading them would be the sign of a team in need of a new GM.
My apologies to the Insiders, but in a blatant ripoff of sec3, I have to ask whether the choice on trading or re-signing Jason should be referred to as
The Marquis Decide
It is, to be sure, a torturous question.
Sec 3, My Sofa said...
Steve M. said...
A friend of mine just emailed me this from Adam Kilgore. Now I have been writing about Jason Marquis's incredible win percentage for weeks and today Kilgore writes his piece (coincidence, I think not!):
You have indeed. Even if it was a coincidence, you were there first. (If it were me, I'd politely ask AK if my research figured in his research. Just for fun.) July 19, 2011 3:12 PM
Thanks. Read back to when I first started writing on Marquis and as soon as I compared him statistically to Livan, some people didn't like the results of my research. It is what it is.
I love statistical anomalies and the other pitchers with stats that follow suit aren't an anomaly as they just win. Guys like Roy Halladay and Jair Jurjjens.
Jason Marquis is a head-scratcher but like I said he has made a career of winning with "average" skills. If you had 5 like him, you would make the playoffs every year but you would lose in the first round of the playoffs so you have to know what you have.
He will take you to the dance and leave before the music starts.
Based on Elias stats, almost definitely using 2 years like 2011 a Type B and possibly a Type A depending on who declares for Free Agency.
Since it is a 2 year average he walks this year with no compensation unless he is traded while under team control or his contract is extended.
Thanks, Steve M. That's what I figured. Which is why I'd be willing to overpay just a little on a one-year contract, but that's all (not that they ask me). Odds he has another year like this one aren't bad, but if he gets two, and either of them are bad, you're right back where you started.
Thanks re. the radio show, sec3.
SteveM, I recalled your earlier posts and thought of them when I saw the AK post. Verry interresting...
gonatsgo, I also like to see a nice bunt laid down. Speaking of HRs, I kinda like inside-the-parkers. :-)
You can take this to the bank: Jordan Zimmermann and Danny Espinosa are now as untouchable as Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. Or Ryan Zimmerman. Trading them would be the sign of a team in need of a new GM.
I might even add Storen to the margins of that list.
Read back to when I first started writing on Marquis and as soon as I compared him statistically to Livan, some people didn't like the results of my research.
I don't have to. I was one of them.
; )
you would make the playoffs every year but you would lose in the first round of the playoffs
Pretty much like the Braves did.
As to The Inevitable Return, I know nobody else will, but I'm sticking with Stras Hashana.
I think that would undoubtedly fit Jason Marquis better. Marquis Hashana and Strasqua. (Pasqua for Easter).
OK, 3:39, but I'm reserving Shana-nosa for our ROY candidate.
OK, 3:39, but I'm reserving Shana-nosa for our ROY candidate.
I still like Klaxen-osa ... he might hit 40 this year?
If I were Rizzo, I'd hang on to Nix; good LHH off the bench are hard to find. He also could fill in for the OF regulars, in all three positions, in the next few years.
Man, I like the way he grabs a bat!!!!!!
Well, just in case you were wondering, Rosh Hashanah starts this year at sundown on September 28th, about the time the final game of the regular season (4:10pm at Marlins) should be wrapping up.
So for Strasburg to make his return on Stras-Hoshanah would be a very late return indeed.
Whereas, the Rookie of the Year would just about being decided. I rest my case.
Now, what is Hebrew for Rookie? (Shana being "year").
Nice list building of completely untouchable players - the reason I like it is that it shows we have some permanent pieces of the puzzle formerly known as "The Plan". I agree with previous posters that listening to the great Nook Logan debacle brings back funny memories but also reminds us that the team has moved along. On July 19th, 2011 The Washington Nationals are in first place in the NL East and are a .500 team. In previous years I would have considered that a miracle. I can remember wondering if we would win 50 in the whole season. Now - stay healthy, keeping moving forward and add those remaining pieces. I am starting to "expect it".
Lineup from Washingtonpost.com:
Nationals
1. Danny Espinosa, 2B
2. Ian Desmond, SS
3. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
4. Michael Morse, 1B
5. Jayson Werth, RF
6. Wilson Ramos, C
7. Roger Bernadina, CF
8. Jerry Hairston, LF
9. Jordan Zimmermann, SP
Astros
1. Michael Bourn, CF
2. Jeff Keppinger, 2B
3. Chris Wallace, 1B
4. Hunter Pence, RF
5. Carlos Lee, LF
6. Chris Johnson, 3B
7. Clint Barmes, SS
8. Humberto Quintero, C
9. J.A. Happ, SP
Worth hitting 5th - yuck. You know a guy is struggling when I hope he walks in a key situation, so other have a chance. That's how I feel about Worth.
I say let Rizzo concentrate on signing the draft picks (both the high and the lows) and take a wait and see attitude with trades. I think if he signs all five remaining high ones and a few of the others it will be much more important than spending time setting up marginal trades.
Thanks. Read back to when I first started writing on Marquis and as soon as I compared him statistically to Livan, some people didn't like the results of my research. It is what it is.
I was one of those objecting -- and I still am.
Last time around, I asked what pitchers were opposing Livo (since it seems this year as if he often pitched against #1 pitchers) compared to what pitchers were pitching against Marquis.
To make it crystal clear: Livo started against the #1 pitcher for the Braves -- Marquis started against a rookie pitcher for the Astros. Of *course* the probability is that Marquis will get the win and Livo the loss!
Until anyone answers that, I think your stats don't really show anything.
See examples ranging from Nolan Ryan, to, King Felix (or, for laughs, Clippard a 1.000 batting average against in the all star game -- yet walked away with the win).
I agree with those that feel that trading off pieces when we have a chance to finish the season .500 or better would be a mistake. I think the change in culture for the better would be worth more than the prospects we could get for Marquis or Livo.
I do not understand how trading Storen or Clippard is going to improve the team. This is not Matt Capps on a hot streak. Its a number one draft pick who in a years' time has become an extremely reliable closer and the best setup man in baseball right now. Trading either or both of them would be suicide.
I really, really do not want BJ Upton. He's been a headcase in Tampa, something akin to Hanley Ramirez (without as much talent). All I keep thinking about is those clips of Longoria busting Upton's chops for his failure to hustle after a fly ball. You can put up with it if you're an estabished team, but for this team trying to set a tone, it could be suicide. I don't understand the percieved need for a leadoff hitter anyway, I think the Shark is doing just fine and has been improving as the year has went on.
At this point I think the Nats are probably better off to stand pat and let this team play itself out for the year. There is no real pressing need, and let the improvement show in the final standings, and build in the off season.
I have been saying with Marquis that he is a freak of the statistics. Take his ERA and WHIP and throw it out the window and look at what he does for the teams he plays for and that is enter games as the starting pitcher that ends in wins. Marquis is 8-4 and team is an amazing 13-6 in games Marquis starts is a .685 win percentage. It generally takes a .568 season win percentage to win 92 games and make the playoffs. Conversely, the team is 6-14 in games Livan starts for a .300 winning percentage.
I can't explain why it happens but last night was another example. He has the most similar stats to Livan and the team doesn't win for Livan.
Whatever it is you take it and re-sign him for 2 more years and hope it continues.
This argument for extending Marquis makes about as much sense as when he was first signed by the Nats and it was pointed out that he had never, ever pitched for a team that failed to make the playoffs. How'd that one work out?
raymitten said...
I agree with those that feel that trading off pieces when we have a chance to finish the season .500 or better would be a mistake. I think the change in culture for the better would be worth more than the prospects we could get for Marquis or Livo.
_____________________________
Good summation and well said. +3 on that!
Agree 100% with raymitten. Don't break up the great Clip and Store. Don't get BJ on this team, he is just trouble.
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