Thursday, June 9, 2011
Beltway Baseball Live - 6/9/11
It was quite an eventful week in NatsTown, what with the draft, some wild games on the West Coast, Ryan Zimmerman's rehab and Bryce Harper's kissy face.
Chase Hughes and I discussed all that and more during another live episode of Beltway Baseball today at 2 p.m. And, as always, we answered several of your questions.
Thanks to those of you who tuned in live. If you missed it, here's the full episode for your viewing pleasure. Because of all the topics in today's show, it's broken up into two segments, so don't forget to check out Part 2 below.
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82 comments:
Hi Mark, Regarding the draft - we seem to be getting much praise from the analysts about stock piling players. What is your take? Are their signability issues? I get the Rendon seems to be the biggest name, but he won't sign until August and then there is the shoulder injury. Is there anyone else that can make it to the big leagues say within a year? We drafted college players, so I am hoping that there is only a little seasoning needed.
Thanks
Mark,
I enjoy your Insider site immensely. Good stuff!! Thank you! I have a two part question. (1) I don't think Rigglemen always puts his best players in the lineup. His logic appears to be locked into the lefty vs. righty mindset. What are your thoughts on this, that is, best lineup and lefty vs righty? (2) Going into the season, Rizzo apparently decided that their everyday CF will be a career low .200 BA guy (Ankiel). Do you think he sold the team short with that decision or was it a sound decision in that this season's CF is just a placeholder until Harper arrives in June 2012?
Thanks,
Rob Neumer
Waldorf, MD
Hello Mark, with the Marlins pulling the trigger on a new hitting coach, has the idea of replacing Eckstein been discussed ? Should it be ? Or is he Rizzos guy no matter what the stat sheet says ?
The Rendon pick looks solid. It would seem to me to be good for Rendon to determine once he signs and is assigned to camp that he knows his future position. Do you think the Nationals should make it a priority to get Ryan Zimmerman's contract extended like Tulowitzki and Braun?
My question concerns the first 2 high schoolers picked, Deion Williams and Hawtin Buchanan. They both seem to be solid athletes that project well 2 - 4 years out. Will the Nats have to go over slot to sign them?
I meant to add that Buchanan is stated as a "firm" commitment to U of Miami (as was A.J. Cole) and Williams is contemplating junior college or Ga. State.
With Zimmerman still out, and if Werth sits again, if Espinosa's hand is badly hurt, who do they call up?
The captcha for that answered: "persons"; I should have been more specific...
Sec3, add Hairston to that list of those hurting. This bench is getting short.
Danny's hand , of course, is what the people want to know about.Seems lie lots of folks are dinged up right now - anything serious? And -- does anyone, anywhere, ever have the cajones to ask about the future of Matt Stairs? Yes, he got one more single this week - I think any of our singleA batters could have done this much as a pinch hitter at this point- and played a position and benefited from the experience with the club. Give him a coaching job, already, and move on.
Mark, could you please give us an injury update on Gorzelanny and Zimmerman. Are they likely to return for the opening game of next week's homestand? And if/when they do, who gets cut from the 25 man roster--Bixler or Stairs for Zim, and Maya for Gorzo?
Why is the MLB draft in early June? Not only is it in the middle of the MLB season, but it's right in the middle of the NCAA tournament. Wouldn't you want these college players to focus on finishing the season strong instead of whether or not they might be drafted?
P.Cole... C'mon... High School and the regular Collegiate seasons have ended.... the only thing still in play that matters is the College World Series and the fact that many draftees are involved in the 10 day tournament plays well for the NCAA in generating additional interest.
When would you propose holding it?
Mark - is Stairs such a good clubhouse presence that it outweighs his performance?
And since we have to send someone, who do you see representing us at the All Star game?
Mark,
The team is starting to develop it young core fielders with a focus on defense but you do need some offense. Since there does not seem to be a viable CF/Top of the order hitter upgrade in the minors, is the recently drafted Brian Goodwin the answer or is it possible that Rizzo looks to trades? Maybe a Michael Bourn or BJ Upton?
CG
Vienna,VA
Mark, I brought up yesterday morning defined roles in the bullpen. In a discussion with a friend he said that the problem with the team is lack of clutch offense and if the team scored runs, there wouldn't be this constant pressure on Burnett and the bullpen guys to be perfect.
While I agreed with him, I think you change what you can change and these hitters just don't help their pitchers, clearly, as seen in the box scores.
I think the bullpen can be even more dominant with better defined roles and I don't see Coffey and Burnett as set-up guys.
1) Do you think Riggleman/McCatty have to set their plan to who their 7th and 8th innings guys are? I believe it is Kimball then Clippard and then to Storen to close.
2) Which manager does the best job of managing their bullpens? I think Charlie Manuel from what I have seen as they are just shut down.
Any truth to the BJ Upton rumors? Much of the chatter revolves around the notion that a 'change of scenery' would be good for him (and it sure seems that such a change has benefited Nyjer Morgan, although his stint on the DL means that he's only played in 27 or so game).
Steve M... our bullpen gets called into stressfull situations almost EVERY game. That's the biggest problem and the curse of having a highly competitve team, very few blow outs either way.
Does Charlie Manuel have the same problem? Even though the Phillies are having troubles at the plate, their starters are expected and usually do get the team to the 8th inning and Halladay goes 9 quite often. At least 3 out of 5 starts their bullpen is called on for less than 6 outs, which is a much easier situation to manage.
The Nats staff is being called on almost daily to get 8 or more outs.
NatsJack -
I agree about our relievers being called in a lot in stressful situations, but this isn't an overworked bullpen. In innings pitched, the Nats relievers are 8th of 16 teams in the NL.
This is a testament to the starting rotation, and a huge improvement from last year, when the Nats bullpen pitched the most innings in all of MLB.
Whither Tom Milone? Any plans to say, send Maya back to Syracuse for some more work and give Milone a chance instead?
NatsJack/HHover, we are all on the same page but if you go into a 1-1 game like yesterday or a 4-1 game like Monday, the margin of error is certainly different.
Why wasn't Burnett in there yesterday to get just the lefty out? Or at least after he gave up the double, why didn't Coffey come in then?
Runs are at a premium as we all know and this offense will look better but you do only what you can do and in the Nats situation, too many games have been given away by the bullpen.
This isn't on Burnett in my opinion as he should have been yanked sooner.
Is it just my imagination or is Riggleman using Stairs less often and in low pressure situations?
Also, Stammen isn't being used and was a waste of a callup. His appearance ended up in a loss and he is the same guy who we have seen before. Rizzo has to have better options than what we have here.
Mark, who do you see as potential callups from the Minors?
Antonelli homers in the first and Detwiler has a 1 - 0 lead going into the second inning in Syracuse.
NatsJack in Florida -- Interesting point about Philla starters - I would be interested to know how they go about keeping their bullpen fresh. It doesn't seem like there a a lot of innings to go around. It also seems like a lot of our bullpen guys pitch better when they are used regularly. Also - those of you who are good at stats -- it seems to my naked eye that our bullpen is pitching less innings this year than last year, maybe than in a couple of years. Side sessions can only do so much - they aren't the same as facing live batters. Maybe sometimes a reliever has to go in just because it's been too long since he has pitched? Since most of our games are close, there doesn't seem to be that blow out win or loss to let people go into to work things out, or regain confidence - something that might benefit Burnett right now. Use of bullpen - always a good topic!
Detwiler... 3 innings - 9 consecutive outs. Now let's see what happens the second time through.
Questions about a couple of prospects. If Antonelli were a genuine prospect, wouldn't he still be with the Padres? I mean, he was a number 1 pick. He has a history of being productive at AAA and failing in the big leagues. Question two: If Marrero is a legitimate prospect, shouldn't he be hitting somewhere around .300 (as opposed to .275). Don't real-deal prospects tear up the leagues they play in? Just wondering...
And Detwiler laid down a perfect sacrifice bunt.
Antonelli grounds up the middle to the shortstop with 2 outs and a man on third. Shortstop makes a throw across his body clearly pulling the firstbaseman off the bag but the ump calls him out.
I guess their just preparing them for how the Nats get called.
Good one NatsJack!
Detwiler gives up a single but otherwise looks sharp through 4 innings against one of the better hitting teams in the IL.
fpcsteve said... Questions about a couple of prospects. If Antonelli were a genuine prospect, wouldn't he still be with the Padres?
He wasn't showing progress and the Padres cut him loose. Now then, did the Syracuse coaches find something in him that they changed and have turned his game around? It is certainly something we are all wondering if he is a top prospect and the Padres missed out on him.
NatsJack in Florida said... Detwiler gives up a single but otherwise looks sharp through 4 innings against one of the better hitting teams in the IL. June 9, 2011 11:22 AM
This is the same team that JD Martin shut down yesterday. Martin, J (W, 1-4) 6IP, 2H, 0R
Mark,
With the Nats history of not recognizing injuries early enough, is it possible that Burnett is hurt?
CG
Well Detwiler, there goes the shutout...
That was Yonder Alonso who hit that HR. He is a very good hitter. For Detwiler, he really has to be shut down against lefty batters.
Yonder Alonso hit the solo shot. No shame in that.
I like that he's been consistantly in the strike zone and no wals.
walks.
NatsJack, there isn't shame in that but I want to see Detwiler dominate and especially with lefty batters.
With Det's last outing and this one, he has pieced together 2 good outings but this is still AAA guys and Yonder Alonso is a Major League talent.
I just can't get too excited about striking out a .200 AAA batter like Negron or the pitcher. I would like to see strikeouts of Alonso and the other good lefty Juan Francisco to see some dominance of the better leftys.
I'm anxious to see how Detwiler handles the 4 - 1 lead when he gets back on the mound.
Masnstinks
As I said above, the Nats bullpen is middle of the NL pack this year in terms of numbers of IP. Last year, they were tops in all of MLB, with 545 IP; they're on track for about 470 this year.
That projection is low (even if nothing else changes) because the Nats have played and lost more road games than anyone else in the NL so far. In home games, of course, they can't avoid pitching the 9th inning.
Still, the starters are clearly going longer--they're 6th in the NL in terms of IP per start. Last year, they were second to last.
I had the same question as Water23: is it possible Sean is injured? He DEFINITELY is better than he's been showing lately.
Who do you see going down when Zimm comes back? And if it's Bixler, why can't it be Stairs? What is he adding that we don't see in public? It must be something. Thanks, Mark.
NatsJack, you get way to caught up in supporting your guys or dissing some like you did to Maya yesterday.
Detwiler is doing well today and just keep proper perspective. That wasn't Joey Votto who hit that HR, that was a good AAA guy.
I was a Maya supporter when he was touted as having a 92 - 93 fast ball with good movement but all I've seen is an 89 tops guy with no movement. Yeterday he had good location and a good breaking ball against an offensively challenged team and at the end I gave him his due.
I'm watching Detwiler and while I haven't been impressed with his fastball (another 89 tops so far) his movement has been good.
Yes there are guys I like and guys I don't like and NEITHER Detwiler or Maya are in my like camp. My Detwiler take is that his career with the Nats has been a start/stop thing where he has never been given a chance to pitch every 5th day for a whole season and therefore no one knows if he can be a starter or if he needs to work out of the pen. This is the season to find out.
As for Maya, I'd like to see an improved fastball that either moves in (to a rh hitter) or down. I doubt we'll ever see the purported 92 - 93 that was advertised in Winter ball.
And he will be 30 years old in August and Detwiler is 25 (and left handed).
Antonelli really wants it bad. Its no wonder Espinosa didn't want to talk about his hand to reporters ... however, its Desmond that ought to be replaced not Espinosa.
Both are bullpen guys from what I have seen. Neither has tremendous ARM stamina for 5-7 innings but Maya hit his spots yesterday and we have to give him credit for a very good start.
The funny thing about it is that Lannan has been at 91 - 92 all year and everyone still considers him a soft tosser. Something happened to Detwiler where he has lost 5mph on his velo. At 89 MPH tops and without any other A weapons Detwiler won't make it as a starter or as a reliever.
At 25 years old he won't be given up on so quickly; most lefties have about 19 lives anyway; I used to think that he will be one of the young guns leading the rotation in 2013 now I,m not so sure.
Looks like Bally is in now. Detwiler leaves with 2 on and 1 out in the seventh.
Well it looks like Detwiler has moved from terrible to OK in the last couple of outings; still disappointing considering he retired the first 10 men he faced.
I have a question for Mark. Do you think that two of these games (and perhaps in the AZ series) might have been won with Alberto Gonzalez in the infield instead of Hairston/Cora? I've seen at least 3 or 4 doubles that look like they should have been outs.
Who is mostly responsible for Cora, Hairston, Ankiel on the roster and playing instead of the other options they had: Riggleman or Rizzo?
Looks like the A's fired their manager today.
JD, I don't put too much faith in speed guns reported at Minor League games but if you are telling me that Detwiler is down to 89MPH on his fastball for certain, then Washington, we have a problem.
I still like Detwiler for 3 innings and still believe he can be a 1 inning wonder like Jonny Venters. I have stated it all year and in early March 2001 when I said 3 innings against bench guys, AAA and AA guys in Spring Training doesn't make you a starter (unless you are already one in a MLB rotation). The problem in Spring Training for guys coming in for the 6th or 7th innings and beyond aren't seeing any Major League guys so yes, everything in proper perspective.
We are wasting time with Detwiler in convincing each other that he is something else. He is not and isn't any better than Stammen or Maya. AAA is loaded with good AAA starters that could never make in the MLB. Like NatsJack said, Detwiler is 25 years old and my observation is that is old for a AAA guy trying to find where he fits.
early March 2011, whoops.
Also, Willingham moves to a worse team. Yep, Manager fired today. That's what happens when you can't beat the Orioles.
I haven't been a Desmond fan, but give him his due. He has improved his game a ton this season. If Antonelli keeps up his performance through the summer, bring him up in September. No on-the-job-training in DC. I said this yesterday, and I think it bears repeating: Cora and Hairston have major league experience and records they can stand on; Antonelli does not. He can't be the solution for folks who dislike Cora and Hairston because they aren't 23-24 years old. As bad as the Padres are offensively, you would think Antonelli would still be there. Steve M. may be right. The coaching staff at Syracuse may have coached Antonelli into being a major league player. Who knows? But Cora and Hairston haven't done anything that deserves having them dismissed from the team. Stairs? OK. Ankiel? OK. Not Cora and Hairston.
Mark,
Some people suggested that the nationals will trade both Livo and Marquis if that happens. Who would be the two starting pitchers to be call up?
Also is there a possibility that Sean gets sent down to work his issues that he has? He has really hurt the team lately and when fans see him come in now. They are probably thinking to themselves oh hell please dont blow it.
BTW - First Round Draft Analysis
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/media/podcasts/
'The Nationals selected a legitimate major league pitching prospect in Stanford southpaw Brett Mooneyham in the 38th round. The Scott Boras client had Tommy John surgery and missed the season and is likely headed back to school. A seven-figure bonus, or something close, may get him to skip his fourth year at Stanford. He started the spring with a chance of going in the first couple of rounds.'
Interesting
I'd be surprised if Burnett has an option year left. Natsjack?
So it looks like we will see Zim in the lineup next Tuesday vs. the Cardinals. If you go back to the last boxscore Zim was in on April 8th where the Nats won, Werth batted 2nd which they should go back to.
1) Bernadina
2) Werth
3) R. Zim
4) Nix
5) Morse
6) Espinosa
7) Ramos
8) Desmond
This is a lineup that looks much better than what the Nats had back then with an injured LaRoche, no true leadoff, and a struggling Morse.
Kilgore did an interesting piece today on the Nats pythagorean which now sits at 30-32 projected record which shows how unlucky they have been. It certainly feels that way at times.
What is pythagorean winning percentage?
Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by
(Runs Scored)^1.83
------------------------------------------------
(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83
Pay to Play.... I'd like to see a comparison using the same analysis at the 62 game mark last season..... If I had my intern today, I'd have them run it.
I'm pretty sure it would show that last years team's record was much better than they were playing just as this years teams record is worse than they are playing.
Riggleman consistently manages at or below expectations based on his Pythagorean win-loss formulas. Same was true last year as is true every year. Either he is one of the unluckiest managers out there or he just doesn't get the most out of his teams. As a statistician, I think when there is a trend, you have to investigate it. Maybe the numbers support that Riggs loses maybe 5 or so games on average due to his managing.
I'll defer to the statisticians on this, but it seems to me that this 'unlucky trend', as analysed by the Pythagorean formula, is in reality the absence of an identified statistical variable.
When 'chance' is replicated, it is no longer 'chance/luck'.
Personally, I think that there is an artifact of managing/on-field performance that James needs to address as a real variable. He may feel that way himself being the very excellent baseball stats' guy that he is.
The Pythagorean formula gives us a good start.
NatsJack in Florida said...
Pay to Play.... I'd like to see a comparison using the same analysis at the 62 game mark last season.
-----------------------------------------------
Per mlb.com:
On June 11, 2010 the Nats record was 30-32. Their Expected W-L was 29-33. They were 10-10 in 1-run games and 1-5 in extra inning games.
Oh, and that was WITH a healthy Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham.
Oh, and that was WITH a healthy Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham.
The guys who couldn't run and can't field right? Instead there are now Riggleman's prized "smart ball" players. One must admit that this team is designed around the vision Riggleman excitedly expressed in him MASN commercials. He even mentions 1 run games in one of them.
It sure seems like accountability should definitely start there. Doesn't it?
But Cora and Hairston haven't done anything that deserves having them dismissed from the team. Stairs? OK. Ankiel? OK. Not Cora and Hairston.
They are both pretty terrible first baseman and Hairston is as bad as Harris in center field which is why he is not ever there as originally planned. I think Hairston deserves to go for Antonelli. But Antonelli should get to start ... a lot. He was originally a high ceiling player drafted in the first round and he still has that potential. It might be worth it to find out.
Cora, on the other hand, does seem to know what he is doing at second base and shortstop and understands the concept of making contact to get on base somehow instead of striking out. He bats left. They really should have kept one or the other not both. But that too is on Riggleman. When they asked him about Gonzo who as having a great spring he said yes, BUT, Cora was brought here for a reason.
"Smart Ball" its what's for losing.
They are both pretty terrible first baseman; meant to say third baseman ...
Nats Wins under Rigs vs. Pythagorean projection
2009 - 33 wins vs 32 projected
2010 - 69 wins vs 71 projected
2011 - 27 wins vs 30 projected
So over ~300 games under Riggs, they've "underperformed" by 4 games--not 5 games a season, as some previous commenter said.
He's still a mediocre manager, but let's keep the criticisms reality-based.
"Either he is one of the unluckiest managers out there or he just doesn't get the most out of his teams."
I don't think it is luck, myself, but just for the sake of argument (or "arguendo" if you're Latinizing), luck is unevenly distributed, by definition. Somebody has to be the unluckiest.
Jim Northrup and Jose Pagan, Rest in Peace.
HHover....we're talking about Periculum here..there is only one reality with him and it's all about Riggleman or Alberto Gonzalez or Boomer Whiting...
DFL... was fotunate enough to watch them both play... Amen
HHoover & NatsJack
I am not periculum. And I said "Maybe the numbers support that Riggs loses maybe 5 or so games on average due to his managing." See the 'maybe' comment indicates no facts and a wild guess.
And these are easy facts found on the web....
1 run games: 195-252 (.436 win percentage)
extra inning games: 54-81 (.400 win percentage)
Pythagorean win-loss: 653-758 (.462 win percentage)
Pythagorean - Record: underperformed by -29 games
seasons over-performing Pythagorean: 3 out of 11
seasons over-.500 in 1 run games: 3 out of 11
seasons over-.500 in extra inning games: 2 out of 11
Riggleman is not a great manager. For my stones I would take F. Robby over Riggs. But hey support your man Riggleman, since clearly you seem to have some personal connection to his success.
Natman... I only care about how Riggs performs with this club... I don't give a rat's patootie what he did with the Cubs, Padres or the Mariners just like I don't care what Michael Morse did with the Mariners.
It's solely on his performance with the Nats that I judge and while I've stated that I have no problem with how he's handled these teams as they've been constituted, I fully expect someone else to be managing a team that has Harper, Strasberg, Rendon, and whoever we sign as a free agents in the coming seasons.
I just get tired of the broken record that gets posted everyday, 10 times a day by 1 or 2 posters.
And on that note, I put out an emergency APB on the whereabouts of one JayB... Haven't heard much from him since he missed on his Riggleman Apocolypse 8 days ago... I miss the conspiracy theories but not so much the Riggleman rants.
Natman
As I said, Riggs is a mediocre manager, so why you think that I'd disagree with your statement that "Riggleman is not a great manager" is beyond me.
I appreciate the further stats, but they don't seem that inconsistent with his #s for the Nats, which I gave above. I would be curious to know where you're getting your Pythagorean, run differential and other #s. Baseball-reference shows Riggs as having managed 1474 total games, vs the 1411 that you seem to have.
NatsJack
Like the guy who predicted the rapture on May 21, JayB has some 'splaining to do. The rapture guy claimed that it really had happened but we just didn't notice--that would be an even tougher sell for JayB.
1. NatsJack Rigs stats aren't continuously updated even though they are on web.
2. You don't like Riggleman rants but how are you with Ankiel starting and leading off as he is, again, tonight? Do you actually believe that he should be in that slot or even playing? Do you think Bernadina should be playing everyday as Player Development requested? Or do you think Rig knows best?
3. Rig is not a 'mediocre' manager. I would characterize him as a 'bio-polar/schizo' manager. His knowledge of baseball and his ability to manage games may be without equal in the game today.
However, that is offset by his "other" sentimental side that tries to find ways to fit the square peg in the round hole. To start untalented players he favors placing his teams in positions where not only are they more likely to lose but high probability of a loss in close / 1 run games?
That's how I see him.
Whew... that boy needs help.... he keeps repeating the same thing over and over and over and over and over and over....... and over and over.....
We all get it.... none of us like Ankiel as an everday player....oh... who drove in the only run yesterday? And I want Bernie in the line up every day.....But I'm not the manager and neither are you and until it changes this is what you get.... as my favorite assistant would say "Just suck it up buttercup an quit your whinning".
OK, we visited this issue last year, and I'm ready to go again. My daughter suffers from bi-polar disorder. She got that while she was taking care of her newborn sons and while her husband was doing his first tour in Iraq. As long as and as often as anyone use the term "bi-polar" to discuss baseball, I will come after them with a vengeance. You don't know what you're talking about when you flippantly use that term to communicate your displeasure over Jim Riggleman as the Nats manager. And if you do, shame on you for misusing that term here. And just for the record, "anonymous" is the coward's way of doing business here. You are uninformed on important issues and a coward to boot. I personally couldn't care less how you see Jim Riggleman. Have a nice night.
You are uninformed on important issues and a coward to boot. I personally couldn't care less how you see Jim Riggleman. Have a nice night
And two big Harper smooches right back at ya preacher man. Talk about hypocrites dude you need to go back and read your good book because if anyone needs help ITS YOU given what you do for a living after writing that drivel.
SHAME ON YOU for your attitude ... and I spelled it bio-polar intentionally ... I also know a bit about it ... and there is one thing I do know:
Real "Preachers" would never write those things ... never period.
Natman/Anon
I won't call you bi-polar, but you must be suffering a serious case of whiplash to write "Riggleman is not a great manager" in one comment and "his ability to manage games may be without equal in the game today" in your very next one.
A caller into Mike Rizzo's radio show just asked the Rendon/Zimmerman question that he asked on Mark Zuckermans show at 2pm and Rizzo after he answered wanted to know what Mark said but the caller was disconnected.
Gosh, an "ignore" button would be so very handy sometimes, wouldn't it? I do have a fake "panic" button on my computer. I'm not going to hit it just yet, though. :-)
Sending good thoughts and prayers for your daughter, fpcsteve. Sounds like life threw her a few curves.
The anonymity of the internet sure lets people act out the lousier sides of their personalities. It's why I don't read the comment sections on news stories any more - it makes me despair of humanity.
Chin up, FPC - I honor your son-in-law for his service, and your family for the sacrifices that you are all making to support him.
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