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US Presswire photo Like the Nats, the Caps have suffered their share of heartbreakers in recent seasons. Unlike the Nats, at least they've made the playoffs and been in position to win. |
It obviously happened last night with the Capitals, who were swept by the Lightning in the Eastern Conference semifinals and despite four consecutive division titles are now 2-4 in playoff series under coach Bruce Boudreau.
It's certainly happened plenty of times over the last two decades with the Redskins, who have copyrighted the notion of getting fans excited in the offseason only to underachieve come the actual season.
It's happened with the Wizards, who despite anticipation over No. 1 draft pick John Wall posted the fourth-worst record in the NBA and over the last three years own a .276 winning percentage.
And, of course, it's happened with the Nationals over much of the last six-plus years, from their stunning collapse from 100-win pace to .500 record in 2005, to back-to-back 100-loss seasons in 2008-09, to the ultimate torture: Stephen Strasburg undergoing Tommy John surgery less than three months after making one of the greatest debuts in baseball history.
This is just the way it seems to be in D.C., where none of the big four local teams (sorry, D.C. United) has won a championship since the Redskins hoisted the Lombardi Trophy on Jan. 26, 1992.
That's nearly two decades without a title, an amazingly long stretch for a city with teams in all four major pro sports leagues.
So here's the question as we wait to find out Boudreau's fate and as we contemplate how the Nationals are going to score a run off Roy Halladay tonight: Which local team will be next to win a championship?
The easy answer is to say the Capitals, because they're the only one of the group to even reach the playoffs in the last three years, and they did just earn their conference's No. 1 seed for the second straight year. But something about that franchise just doesn't add up. Something just doesn't seem to click for them once the postseason begins.
The Redskins do appear to be on the right track now, with Mike Shanahan in total control of football operations and getting rave reviews for stockpiling draft picks this year in an attempt to overhaul the roster. But that strategy, obviously, is geared more toward building a winner down the road, not immediately.
The Wizards, quite frankly, are a mess. But they do have a franchise player to build around in Wall. And more than in any other sport, it's possible to turn an NBA franchise around quickly with only a couple of star players.
Which brings us to the Nationals, whose slow-and-steady approach to building a contender has brought improved results the last two years. Anyone who doesn't believe this franchise is closer today to winning than it was two years ago hasn't been paying attention at all.
But how close are these guys to winning? The ultimate optimist would say the pieces could conceivably all fall into place next year, with a healthy Strasburg and rookie Bryce Harper joining Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and others to form the nucleus of a potential winner.
The ultimate pessimist would say the Nats still have a long way to go, that Strasburg likely won't be 100 percent next year, that Harper can't be counted on to dominate from the moment he arrives in the big leagues, that there's still a dearth of championship-caliber pitching behind Strasburg on the depth chart.
So what do you think? Which of the big four local teams -- the Nats, Caps, Skins or Wiz -- is most likely to win a championship first?
47 comments:
Capitals. They may be playoff choke artists, but they still have one of the strongest rosters in the NHL. They also have a great farm system, which should keep feeding them with youth over the next couple seasons. They really just need an overhaul. Fire Boudreau, get rid of Semin, and maybe Green, and add some new faces. Even if they got considerably worse (20 points less), they'd still be a playoff-caliber team.
The key is simply making the playoffs. After that you have a clean slate. The team to win all their series ends up the champion.
With the Wizards, Redskins and Nats, I can't see them making the playoffs for at least another 2 years.
Harper has yet to face AA pitching ... and he is still the youngest player in the minor league system. He is at least 2 years out. Even if he arrives early he should NOT be counted on to carry a team ... its kind of like the current team which appears to count too heavily on Danny Espinosa at leadoff. He is, after all, only a rookie.
So, where are we? With an ancient bench that ought be the roster of a celebrity golf tournament? A starting catcher just shy of 40? A starting pitcher who might just be the same age because no one has seen his birth certificate? At the major league level the product has taken a giant leap backward and IMHO that is more to accommodate the "unique" managing style of its manager than to field a winning team.
Let me ask you Mark are you blind? Did you not see what the Phillies did to this AAAA line up? Now fast forward past June and July when the pennant races really heat up. Can't you see how this team will almost certainly lose 10 or more in a row multiple times? If you can't you haven't been watching ... maybe you've been spending too much time at the hockey rink. Rick Ankiel is your starting CF? That's a joke.
As for improvement. Yes there has definitely been a vast improvement in the minor league system. There is consensus agreement on this and the prove is in the results. But this franchise was coming back from a place that was far worst than what you see with an expansion franchise. They still need more and better prospects. To accelerate the time frame to competitiveness they still must flip veterans like Marquis and Lannan and some current prospects to get top almost ready for the majors prospects like Wilson Ramos. They must also sign top free agents. Not a whole gaggle like the yankees. But at least 2-3 top players they know can help carry a team to the playoffs. Guys like Pujols.
Then, maybe, in 3 years with a new and better manager? Who knows?
Anonymous said...
Harper has yet to face AA pitching ...
Somberly, can't help but agree.
Like any NHL team who get in the playoffs and Capitals are a NHL team, a championship is closer to reality than any of the other teams by miles...
UNTERP
Anonono said:
" At the major league level the product has taken a giant leap backward...."
Actually, Mark...he does pay attention.... Just seems like one of these determinedly miserable types, who wouldn't call a glass half full if it were wildly overflowing....
Yes, better pitching than last year, yes, although underperforming, better position players, yes the bench is a bad joke, yes the farm continues to bear fruit, and yes, moves should, and will be made before opening day '12.... How Anonono can always come on like he just chewed a jar of asprin, is just beyond me.
It's taken 20 years of the Redskins to do that to me... The Nats just showed up yesterday....
I think the Capitals had their best roster last year and didn't add the key defenseman they needed at the trade deadline.
The team lost a step this year and just didn't believe in themselves and huge---basic mistakes were made. Poor passing, horrible powerplay, and too many men on the ice. Backstrom and Semin looked like they were done last week and Ovie was trying to do it all.
They also have a strange public persona where you have the owner, coach and star player all doing their own thing with different motivations. Leonsis 3 years ago said "it's not our time now". A year later "we are close". Last year was it, and they blew it.
The Coach is making ridiculous commercials and cursing up a storm on the HBO special. He seems to have a hard time coaching all the egos on the team.
Then you have Ovie "The Great 8" and he seems to have more desire taking his fame to the local night spots instead of dedicating himself to body, mind, and soul. Its his choice and it showed in his game this year as he isn't even in the Top 8 of best players any more.
So for the Capitals, my advice is to find multiple lines of defensemen so the scorers can do their thing.
My other pet peeve is that 3 years in a row Leonsis has raised prices significantly. I guess supply & demand says he can do it, but it proved the point talked about on sports radio this morning after Craig Laughlin's spot, the Junkies said Leonsis is a businessman first and foremost. So are decisions made like last year not to add new payroll for business or part of the "public trust"?
Everyone seems to want to blame Boudreau and I look to the expectations set by the owner who wants to be front and center, Ted, you embarassed the public trust again this year.
While the Caps are clearly the best local team at the moment, the NHL playoffs are pretty much a 16 team crapshoot. MLB playoffs are also a crapshoot, but at least there you're only talking about 8 teams.
I'd still say the Caps have the best chance, but if the Nats come together for 2013 they way many of us hope, they may not be that far behind, if only because their chances once they make the playoffs are much greater.
I'm going to say the NATIONALS. Not because I think they have the best players to pull it off, but because we have seen in Washington that no matter what caliber of players are on a team, and no matter where they finish, they can't win a league championship. So, the Nationals have just as good a chance to win a championship as the Caps, Lizzards, or Deadskins. Just keep slinging is against the wall. But, I really do like the Nationals. GO NATS!!
There are 30 teams in the NHL and 16 make the playoffs. What a joke. It is there big revenue builder for the league. The games go on forever.
What I heard on the radio was that Leonsis turned a $70,000 profit, however, they didn't tell you how big of a salary Ted paid himself.
The Nats will make it to the playoffs before the Capitals win a Stanley Cup and for anyone too young to remember, Abe Pollin took the Caps to a Stanley Cup and Jack Kent Cooke to 4 Super Bowls and the Bullets won a championship under Abe Pollin.
And for the record, I am done after next season with the Caps as I am already commited for 11/12. I like the fact that I am growing with the Nats and they rolled back pricing and adding benefits while the team isn't playing well.
Leonsis is The Pied Piper and whistling his tune to these virtual followers. Of course, first and foremost he is a successful businessman and anyone who crosses him will feel the wrath. He is just so much more polished than the other owners in town that he comes up smelling like a rose and his blog is a self-serving spot to tell HIS message and get HIS point across. Read it today. So well written for the public eye "Thank you for caring so much. I am sorry we let you all down." .....and The Pied Piper is piping and by the way, that 20% increase in your season ticket price stays for next year!
"Can't you see how this team will almost certainly lose 10 or more in a row multiple times?"
-Anonymous 11:49
I believe the Nationals have one losing streak of ten or more in their 6 year history- a history that featured several teams worse than this one playing schedules tougher than this year's). And you think they're gonna have multiple streaks just in the remaining five months of this season?
It's not really good form to accuse Mark of not watching the games and then immediately after that make what is literally the silliest comment I've ever seen on his site.
Meant to say a $700,000 profit...also, it is no great feat making the NHL playoffs. It is a joke in the NFL to have a Wild Card team or Division winner with a losing record. Sure, Selig wants to add 2 more playoff teams as a revenue booster which is fine if you don't increase the playoffs past October.
And you think they're gonna have multiple streaks just in the remaining five months of this season?
Yes, their age and their futility will catch up to them in the end and nothing Riggleman will do will be able to assuage it. Their age and experience was what Riggleman convinced Rizzo would make the difference ... it looks to me like it just might boomerang the opposite direction and take Riggleman down with it.
Its already started : "IN case of emergency use Stairs" becomes "Stairs just stares."
Negative-Anonomo proclaimed:
"Yes, their age and their futility will catch up to them in the end"
Infield:
Espinoza - just turned 24
Ian Desomong - age 25
Zimmerman - 26
LaRoche - 31
Pretty young compared to other teams
The starting pitching includes:
J Zimm - almost 25
Lannan - 26
Gorzy - 28
(Strasburg is 22)
Our two top relieves are:
Storen - 23
Clip - 26
Catcher:
Ramos - 23
(Flores is 26)
Outfield is older, but of Ankiel, Morse, and Worth, none is older than 31.
Overall, a pretty young team. I have no idea what you're talking about.
"Let me ask you Mark are you blind?"
I guess I'm as blind as Mark is.
The ultimate pessimist would say the Nats still have a long way to go, that Strasburg likely won't be 100 percent next year, that Harper can't be counted on to dominate from the moment he arrives in the big leagues, that there's still a dearth of championship-caliber pitching behind Strasburg on the depth chart.
------------------------------------------------
I guess I'm the ultimate pessimist, because that just sounds like someone being realistic to me. As we've seen with JZimm, Stras will likely struggle to find control for a season coming back from TJ surgery. He'll need to learn to pitch again even though he'll still have his velocity. And that's IF he can still pitch at all, which is not like a 100% certainty.
Harper has killed low-A pitching. But he's supposed to completely dominate at that level. To say he might not completely dominate at the major league level when he debuts as a rookie is putting the cart WAY before the horse.
And the "dearth of championship-caliber pitching" has to be the understatement of the year. I'm enjoying our starters for the moment, but any reasonable person knows a hard fall's a comin'. Gorzelanny is sporting a 2.93 ERA. He's got a career 4.59 ERA. Unless McCatty has instilled some kind of divine hand in his pitching motion, I'd say he, along with all our other starters, are bound to regress. Marquis was the first victim last night, as his sinker all of a sudden failed to sink. Tonight, Lannan's up against the team that consistently owns him. Let's see what happens.
Obviously this team is better than the one two years ago, but not too many teams in the history of baseball have been worse than that team. I'm not all doom and gloom. We're heading in the right direction, making moves, steadying the ship, etc. But I don't see this team competing for a ring for several more years.
I don't do predictions, nor do I follow those other teams closely. Therefore, I will simply state that the only team whose title run I pine for is this one. N-A-T-S - Nats! Nats! Nats! :-)
Rizzo has put together a group of good, likeable guys. This is a team that you want to like.
Unfortunately both Livo and Marquis were off their game the past 2 nights and it doesn't get easier with Halladay. I was really hoping the Nats could have taken last night's game. It is hard to believe on paper right now that Hamels is the #2 behind Halladay as Cliff Lee hasn't been as consistent so far outside of that gem he pitched in Washington.
Just will have to go into Miami and do something the Nats haven't done and that is sweep 3 from the Marlins.
Nats. I guess I'm blind, too.
Here's the full list of 4-sport cities and their last title (note; this counts LA as a 4-sport city despite no Football). Sorry for the formatting.
New York 2009 mlb
Los Angeles 2010 nba
Chicago 2010 nhl
Philadelphia 2008 mlb
Dallas/FW 1999 nhl
Miami 2006 nba
Washington 1991 nfl
Detroit 2008 nhl
Boston 2008 nba
Atlanta 1995 mlb
Phoenix 2001 mlb
Minneapolis 1991 mlb
Denver 2001 nhl
DC's last title, as noted is 1991. Minnesota has been similarly long-stretched, having last won in baseball in 1991. Atlanta's not far off.
I guess the difference between those cities and Washington is that their teams have been competitive more frequently than ours. The Vikings were in the NFC championship two years ago, the Twins have won a number of divisional titles. The Braves won, what, 15 straight divisional titles and the Falcolns were 15-1 in one season in between. I can't think of any such season for the Redskins or Wizards, and the Caps may be good in the regular season but a 4-0 blow out in the playoffs is meaningful.
Next DC team to win a title: DC United!
Steve M, as a baseball movie character once stated:
"Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do."
What's that?
"Win the whole [obscene gerund deleted] thing."
:-)
Anonymous said...
Harper has yet to face AA pitching ...
________________________________
Like NatsJack, I don't like anonymous creepers but your attacks on Mark Zuckerman are way out of line and most of your comments are based on not knowing the game.
I will comment on Bryce Harper. Harper faced AA and AAA pitchers in the Arizona Fall League and AAA and Major League pitchers during Spring Training.
In previous years I have called the Nats AAAA at times, this year Rizzo put together a real roster of big leaguers. For a AAAA team, they are certainly in the mix!
Let's turn off the DC Wonk's rose colored glasses (and actually incorrectly adjusted for vision?)
1.] Espinosa 24 2B (should not be leading off as a rookie, should be playing SS.)
2.] Desmond 25 SS (He is not an ML shortstop; should be in SYR learning CF or 2B not sure if he will ever hit.)
3*. Ryan Zimmerman IS ON THE DL for at least 1/2 the season and shouldn't be included.
3.] Jayson Werth RF **31** RF (not hitting outside of the bandbox and PHL lineup)
4.] Adam LaRoche 1B **31** 1b (likely needs surgery to correct a torn ligament. see Zimmerman above.)
5.] Wilson Ramos C 23 (YES! Finally looks better than Buster Posey. YES finally a positive! So, why is he splitting time with a ...
5.a]. Ivan Rodriguez C **~40** (yes he is the STARTER!, but can no longer hit into anything other than double plays. An artifact of old age vs. young pitching.)
6.] Rick Ankiel ***31**(the hitless wonder so proclaimed by none other than Stark and KLaw. He should be used a reliever. Like IRod great defense but zero offense.)
7.] Jerry Hairston Jr. **34** (Now, a AAAA utility guy but Riggleman [after Guzman] decided he likes starting utility guys. This guy is older than dirt and as a result can no longer hit.)
8.] Alex Cora **35** (Another Riggleman favorite see above under Hairston)
If you believe 29 year old LF/1B/3B Michael Morse or 30 year old OF Laynce Nix starts over Riggleman's favored ones. You'd be wrong. Its an illusion.
As for pitching ~40 year old Livan Herandez? ~33 year old Jason Marquis? Gaudin, Coffey? Instead of H-Rod, KImball, Balester?
ANCIENT and decrepit ought to be the watch word of Riggleman's managing style.
Big smiley face back to you natsfan1a!
I am watching the Mets/Giants and the mad-walker Jonathan Sanchez is pitching. He walks the #8 batter and the pitcher and Jose Reyes steps in and triples them home. 3-0 Top of the 3rd
You have to take advantage of what the other team gives you, and that is the difference between good teams and winning teams and that goes for every sport.
Washington Kastles, baby! Makin' quite a racquet. Ha. Racquet. I get joke.
Gorzelanny is sporting a 2.93 ERA. He's got a career 4.59 ERA. Unless McCatty has instilled some kind of divine hand in his pitching motion, I'd say he, along with all our other starters, are bound to regress.
No, Gorzelanny is the real deal ... but he is "damaged goods". Jim Tracey burned out his power arm in 2007 in another useless futile Pirates season. He had never pitched close to 100 innings and went over 200 that year.
He really was unable to really pitch until (except mostly bullpen) until last year with the Cubs when his arm finally rebounded. You're seeing the real Gorzelanny now and he is, like Ramos, should go under the lucky hit bin. However, his history of injury should put a asterisk and a caution. He can probably do 140-160 innings just like JZimmnn.
Harper faced AA and AAA pitchers in the Arizona Fall League and AAA and Major League pitchers during Spring Training.
In a part-time role. Not playing every day where pitchers and their coaches can make a "book" about your tendencies. Too small a sample size. A good achievement nonetheless but it doesn't make him ready.
Say, WhoTF is SteveM? Sounds like anonymous to me? Is there such a thing as a SteveM? A cute handle does not identify you on the Internet fella. No one knows you from Adam ...
I believe in Harper too. More because he has the right attitude. Honestly its far better than that of the decrepit veterans Riggleman loves and Rizzo collects for him. Is he the better athlete than Destin Hood? Undoubtedly HE IS NOT. But what he does have burns from the heart.
So, yeah he will undoubtedly make it and soon ... but rushing him in to be a key component of the 2012 lineup before he has a chance to hone his skills in the minors will not help this team nor Harper. If he can learn to hit close to .400 or above at his age against AAA/AAA? Maybe he can translate that to the majors? That's what's interesting about him.
I'm perfectly fine with Harper working his way up through the minor league rungs the next two years.
No one currently alive will see a championship in this town. For those currently alive, you will have to be satisfied with watching the Lerner family squirm as they attempt over the next seven years to rationalize the $126 million they poured down the rat hole with the Jason Werth signing.
Hey Anon @ 2:06, I don't live in DC but travel in a few times over the summer and will be in town for the US Open and will be at the Cardinals series and on the field on the June 14th game. I will probably be the only 6'5" white guy not wearing a uniform. Come say HI and we can talk some baseball but don't take shots at Mark as we are his guest here.
Steve M..... good luck getting any anon to step up and identify themselves.
Had the pleasure of meeting natsfan1a, Knoxville Nat, JaneB among others (probably another 6 or 7 Nats Insiders) while in Spring Training while wearing my NatsJack jersey and not one Anonymous came up to identify themselves.
Anonymous said... Say, WhoTF is SteveM? Sounds like anonymous to me? Is there such a thing as a SteveM? A cute handle does not identify you on the Internet fella. No one knows you from Adam ...
Ah, the anonymity on the Internet so what is your name? I met SteveM last year at Spring Training. You can't miss him and I will put June 14th on my calendar. Can you get me a Field Pass?
BrettH
NatsJack, I tried to take your advice! Why don't we meet up at the June 14th game and maybe you can sit with us. A guy on here who I met in Viera a few years ago has his own suite and invited me, and I will be sitting with him for a couple of games and then doing the US Open.
SteveM, I would gladly buy a ticket just to meet you. Never sat in a Suite at Nats Park!
NatsJack in Florida said...
Steve M..... good luck getting any anon to step up and identify themselves.
Had the pleasure of meeting natsfan1a, Knoxville Nat, JaneB among others (probably another 6 or 7 Nats Insiders) while in Spring Training while wearing my NatsJack jersey and not one Anonymous came up to identify themselves. May 5, 2011 2:47 PM
Mark'd - Andrew is the guy who owns the Suite. Maybe he can have a NatsInsider get together on June 14th. I know his Suite holds about 25 people. It would be fun to get people together and in a Suite is a great to do it.
Mark Z
You know what would be cool is a Natsinsider.com cap. Any possibility of that happening, Mark?
UNTERP
Anon -of course no one's moniker can be relied on, but the reason to do it (imo) is so that on a blog like this where people post regularly, you can engage in a discussion with someone and have recall about their previous comments. Like Steve M and his previous comments on conditioning. Can't do that with Anon. Also, it seems that when someone picks a handle, they are a little less likely to resort to name calling. But maybe that is just me.
Anyway, here is something that I thought interesting about the SPs, courtesy of Fangraphs. FIP tries to translate pitching for normal defense. Wouldn't have thought JZimm so high, or such a big drop after Livo.
JM - FIP=2.89, WAR=1.0
JZ - FIP=2.89, WAR=.9
LH - FIP=3.43, WAR=.8
TG - FIP=4.22, WAR=.3
JL - FIP=4.47, WAR=.2
Steve M.... Thanks for the invite. I just spent the Mets series and Friday's Giants game in DC.
Got to spend the Mets series in two adjoining suites as a guest of the Mets. Coming back up for the O's series in late June the week end after the Cards series so I'll have to pass.
NatsJack in Fla, I tried to meet you in ST in Fla, but couldn't find you. I had just met Mark Zuckerman there and he described you for me. I went up to three different people who resembled Mark's description and asked them if they were NatsJack, but alas none were. I would love to meet you and all the other Nats Insiders.
Thanks for that Wally!
Pretty nice FIPs overall.
Just a random rant: I HATE the term AAAA to describe a team or aspect of an MLB team. That's extremely insulting to Major League players and teams. They all worked hard to get to the Big stage.
Remember when Strasburg made his debut against the Pirates? Even Nats fans called that lineup AAAA. Ridiculous and insulting to AAA players waiting to make their dream of playing in the Majors come true.
Rant over :)
I like your suggestion, UNTERP. A cap, or a tee-shirt, or even a patch to sew on your jersey would be nice.
SonnyG10.....Sorry we missed. Next Spring Training just check out section 111, Row 3, seat 9. That's just to the first base side of home plate. I'm always there.
The Redskins will win a championship before the rest, because the season is short, and all it takes in football is to make good plays, getting healthy, and winning the division. Mike Shanahan is building a young team that can compete in the NFC East.
Well, this conversation went in an interesting (if agitated) direction.
On topic, so long as it's not the Redskins, I'm happy to see any of the DC teams win. Seriously, after the Caps, it's hard to imagine from the 4 sports that Mark offered us which is likely to step up first. Frankly, the NBA, NFL, and MLB teams need to prove they can make the playoffs, much less win their championships.
And Mark--with all due respect--it's probably not the best read to discount DC United, from a sport with a true worldwide following and a significant local fan base. My money might be on them, though not this year.
For me, the key indicators will be the quality (stability?) of the team's ownership, and the resourcefulness and savvy of each team's front office. Leonsis has proven he can run a team, which should be good news for the Wizards. In stark contrast to a certain NFL owner. For many of us--me included--I remain unsure of the Lerners (though the set-up for these last two seasons was very encouraging, imo).
With the advent of two additional MLB teams in the playoffs next year, who knows--maybe the Nats surprise (there have been plenty of surprises among the World Series competitors in recent years).
Unanimously, Carl A. Herrin, Silver Spring, MD
Nice to meet you, Carl.
Sonny Griffith, Reston, VA
looks like all the anons took a break here at the end. I wanted to read through but also wanted to compliment Steve M. on having wonderful initials. I am with lots of others here that the ONE team I honestly care about making the playoffs (heck with winning, I just want to see them in a series) are the Nationals. I have said this many times but following a team since 1950, having it leave not once but twice and them getting them back is huge but winning would be icing on the cake.
Also agree 100% with Natsjack and others about how much more negative people seem to be when using the anon title. At least with my name you know where I sit and what my initials are. If we get hats, I am in (although I have 10 different Senators/Nationals hats now and rotate them as we lose - will only keep wearing the same hat when we are on a winning streak)
Go Nats
There are none so anonymous as those who will not post.
So let's just call him, oh, I dunno, "Perry."
NatsJack in Florida said...
Steve M.... Thanks for the invite. I just spent the Mets series and Friday's Giants game in DC.
Got to spend the Mets series in two adjoining suites as a guest of the Mets. Coming back up for the O's series in late June the week end after the Cards series so I'll have to pass.
May 5, 2011 3:16 PM
________________________________
Will you be there on June 19th? Sorry you can't meet SteveM and me and a few others. Mark'd, BrettH, NatsJack, Anon8(MichaelLG) call me. 202-716-8500
Too easy a question:
Nationals sometime between 2016 and 2116. ... maybe
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