Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Beltway Baseball Live - 5/30/11
Thanks for watching this week's edition of Beltway Baseball Live, where Chase Hughes and I discussed next week's MLB draft. We also took your questions on Ryan Zimmerman, Jim Riggleman and Ross Detwiler.
If you missed the show live at 2 p.m., here's the full episode...
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40 comments:
I know the mock drafts have us taking one of the stud pitchers (Jed Bradley from Georgia Tech)at 6 and possibly the high school ss from Florida (Javier Baez) at 23 but I think Sonny Gray, if available is the most ML ready guy in the draft. Any chance Rizzo will go for him, if available, even though he doesn't meet Rizzo's penchant for guys 6' 3" and over?
I've heard from Keith Law and other sources that that Nationals are heavily scouting Alex Meyer from Kentucky, 6'9" righty with killer stuff but command, had a couple of bad years in college but has the upside to be an ace. Do you think the Nats are best served by drafting another pitcher, when their past drafts have been pitcher-heavy, especially at the top? Or would they be better off picking a top position player like Bubba Starling or Rendon (if either falls)?
Also, any educated guesses for the pick at 23?
Ross Detweiler's pitching performance continues to deteriorate at Syracuse.
Any understanding from the Nats, as to what are his problems?? Was he not a former #1 draft choise in 2007???
Detwiler yesterday blew up in the 4th inning and gave up 4 runs. When is it time to say Detwiler will probably never be an effective frontline starter and place him back as a reliever?
Clearly the Nats don't have a lefty in the bullpen who can get the job done although I still believe Burnett can right himself. I hate to say I told you so....
Gonat said... Like I said, he isn't perfect and has made mistakes but trust me when I say this and Mark Zuckerman can tell you, Riggleman believes his yelling is reserved for his office.
May 30, 2011 8:36 PM
Mark, can you confirm that Riggleman has closed door meetings with his players to cover the issues?
Steve M. said...I have thought from the start that Detwiler has to be in the mix even as part of the bullpen and will point out again to all the Detwiler supporters that he has done great in his appearances which have been no more than 3 innings of work at a time, but Detwiler stumbles in the 4th and 5th innings of work and 2nd time through the order so while I am encouraged I still need to be convinced that he is now a starting rotation pitcher and can get through a regular season game of seeing each batter 3 times effectively.
March 11, 2011 11:17 AM
Doc, how's about this that I wrote on March 11th and many times going forward. Unfortunately I was correct and Ross Detwiler's "new delivery" coming across his body was better mechanics but really has had no effect on AAA hitters when they see him 2nd time through the order. Ross Detwiler to be effective, is a short work type of guy. Let him ramp up his fast ball and be a Jonny Venters type of guy. There is no shame in being a great bullpen guy although some here equate the fact that he was a top pick in 2007 to some line of thinking that he has to be a starter.
How different would this season had been (coulda, shoulda, woulda) if Rizzo had the vision of taking the best 25. As pointed out yesterday, Aaron Crow of the Royals was the same way in the Minors and now he is the Royals closer.
Detwiler has regressed and could have been on the Opening Day roster as a stopper here. Like I said before, this is part of the Rizzo FAIL. He may be able to evaluate High School and College talent but he can't manage his Minor Leagues and Major League roster.
The other FAIL was as I pointed out in Spring Training that Ryan Zimmerman was probably going to miss time due to injuries. I predicted that at 22 games not even thinking it would be closer to 3 months and because Rizzo traded Alberto Gonzalez away we have been stuck with Hairston and Cora who are way past their prime and sub-par replacements. The bench has to be constructed to anticipate that you will have injuries. What was Rizzo thinking? Or maybe he wasn't!
Doc said... Ross Detweiler's pitching performance continues to deteriorate at Syracuse.
Any understanding from the Nats, as to what are his problems?? Was he not a former #1 draft choise in 2007???
May 31, 2011 9:53 AM
Former #1st round Draft Picks, especially pitchers fail all the time. The issue here is how excuses are made for this kid. Well he was injured. Well he was rushed to the Majors. Well he has a new delivery. Well he was a #1st round pick.
It is the same thing with JD Martin. Only way to save him is the bullpen. Someone in the Minors has to teach these guys how to pitch, proper mechanics and being more than a 3 trick pony.
Did you see Halladay yesterday on Jayson Werth on the key strikeout. Worked him with fastball, slider, and struck him out on a split finger pitch.
Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann each have 4 Plus pitches they can throw. Marquis has 4 good pitches. The rest of the staff relies on 3 good pitches which is why these guys are hit so hard 2nd time through the order. Gorzelanny's biggest problem is missing location without great movement on his ball.
So my question is, where is the emphasis in the Minors to have our young guys in A ball working on 4 plus pitches?
"When is it time to say Detwiler will probably never be an effective frontline starter and place him back as a reliever?"
It may be time to think about it, but keep in mind that if they do decide to make Detwiler a reliever they'll do the transition in the minors, not at the big league level. You're not going to see him pitching out of the bullpen in Washington this year as a replacement for Slaten or Burnett.
Feel Wood, I think you are correct. They seem to force too many round pegs in square holes. Make a decision erring on the side of caution and go with it. The Clippard move to the bullpen was the right way to go and I think if they would use him for one inning appearances, he will continue to be a top reliever.
Talking about square pegs. Every time I see Bixler in LF, I hope the ball doesn't go there with visions of Guzy in RF last year in Houston. The ball always seems to find you. I like Bixler and maybe when he goes back to the Minors he can play a lot of outfield. With his speed and bunting abilities, I like what he can do.
Draft question: Rizzo was apparently at UCLA games over the weekend to see Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. Should we be concerned that Bauer is a big injury risk, given his heavy workload and pregame warmup routine? Last thing we need is another case of Tommy John surgery...
2011 Nats question: Other than bringing back Zimmerman in two weeks (I hope!), what can the Nats do to get the offense jumpstarted? Would it be worth bringing up Marrero or Aubrey for a look, or making a trade at this point in the season?
Josh f,
Bauer pitches once a week and the college season is relatively short; nothing I read about him gives me reason to worry any more than I would about any one else. Cole won't make it to the Nats; I don't see the Pirates bypassing a pitchers who throws 100 MPH.
The lineup is actually taking shape. When you pencil Zim in you have: Bernadina, Espinosa,Werth, Zim, Nix, Morse, Ramos, desmond.
That's not bad. Marrero plays 1st base and he's no improvement over Morse and they won't bring him up to sit. Aubrey is also 1st base/DH and he might be an option to replace Stairs although that's not as big of a deal as people make it out to be.
The problem is poor situational hitting; bunting with Ramos to get to Hairston and Cora, not bunting with Bernadina with Desmond and Werth to follow, stranding a leadoff double on both Saturday and Sunday and not scoring with men on 1st and 3rd and none out on Monday.
A lot of that's on Riggleman; a good manager finds ways to help his team produce in these situations. When different people fail over and over again you have to question the strategy.
RE: Steve M.: "...he may be able to evaluate High School and College talent, but he can't manage hin Minor Leagues and Major League roster."
Right on SteveMeister! Rizzo reflects the proverbial Peter Principal, commonly found in baseball circles, with some exceptions.
From my cursory review of those who have done the research, no #1 draft pitching prospect, going back to the inception of the draft, has ever had a winning record, much less made into the HOF.
Maybe SS will be the exception...let's hope!
Still think you should draft the best position players in the early rounds, and subsequently trade promsiing prospects for pitchers as they develop on MLB farms.
I'll leave it to the sabernuts to quote real stats, but I've always believed that drafting pitchers is a greater crap shoot than drafting position players.
Looking at the Nats' roster there are more homegrown/drafted positon players, few pitchers. The majority of players have come in trades or FA signings.
All the more reason to come out of the draft with the best players available, and/or the ones most likely to succeed.
Always opportunities for exceptions like our boy SS, Stor, and Robbie Ray. Take advantage of the exceptions when drafting, but go with the probabilities of position players.
I like it when a team like the Nats drafts fresh arms out of high school--which usually come in later rounds. Then the onus is then on the farm system to take care of their arms and mould their development. Too often pitchers get burned on college teams, and flame out in the minors after being drafted.
Always opportunities for exceptions like our boy SS, Stor, and Robbie Ray. Take advantage of the exceptions when drafting, but go with the probabilities of position players.
You are forgetting Bradley Peacock who represents why Rizzo went out and hired Clark et al. Not to draft a Stras, Gerritt Cole (I wish.), etc. but to find Bradley Peacock's and draft them in the 41st round. That's how you win in the baseball draft. That's how KC has done it. Its how the old Expo's pre-Lauria did it.
In other words to make it much less of a "crap shoot". So far, so good. Definitely a complete turn-about at least pitching-wise. Even if Potomac is in the cellar. But Syracuse is rising rapidly from the ashes of last place with one heck of a pitching rotation. Bradley Meyers is pitching lights out. Only Stammen and Detwiler are left from rotations of the past 2 years and Detwiler looks destined for the bullpen. Hagerstown is in the mix with some interesting players other than Harper. Blake Kelso currently has a higher batting average.
But even with all the bright spots more prospects are needed for the Nats farm system which was totally bereft for so long. Its why ESPN thinks Rizzo's comments about Pudge is all posturing. They know he wants and needs prospects. He's just saying he won't accept a veteran bat. Prospects and good ones only. That is the right move for this organization.
Doc said:
"From my cursory review of those who have done the research, no #1 draft pitching prospect, going back to the inception of the draft, has ever had a winning record, much less made into the HOF."
Must have been pretty cursory indeed, if it didn't even make it back to the most recent pitcher taken #1 overall other than Strasburg, David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays.
And for what it's worth, Tim Belcher and Andy Benes each had winning records and won 140+ games, and Ben McDonald also had a winning record.
JD said...The problem is poor situational hitting; bunting with Ramos to get to Hairston and Cora, not bunting with Bernadina with Desmond and Werth to follow, stranding a leadoff double on both Saturday and Sunday and not scoring with men on 1st and 3rd and none out on Monday.
A lot of that's on Riggleman; a good manager finds ways to help his team produce in these situations. When different people fail over and over again you have to question the strategy.
May 31, 2011 11:59 AM
The lack of clutch is sorely missed (especially late innings) and the bullpen hasn't held leads recently are the 2 aspects that jump out at me.
Riggleman played it more aggressively yesterday and was glad to see him doing more hit & run and bunts. Unfortunately, Ankiel and Hairston choked in key instances as well as Werth with runners on 1st and 2nd.
This comes down to personnel doing their jobs and I can't find anything that stands out yesterday as managerial mistakes that cost them the game.
Normally this team rolls over for Halladay so overall I liked the fight in the team yesterday. Just a shame that this team just does very little the last 3 innings of games this year offensively. The bullpen has to be air tight to secure the late inning leads and they haven't been.
No reason to jump all over Doc, I think he can re-phrase to no Hall of Fame pitchers or perennial All Stars out of the #1 overall pick as pitchers.
That trend should change with some of these #1's picked in the last few years.
Mark, my question is, who do you see as your wild card for All Star for the Nats as I would say the favorites are 1) Storen 2) Marquis 3) Livo
I am thinking Werth and Morse could get hot(ter) and get in the picture. Morse's number are getting very good on a small sample size although I think with Riggleman on the coaching staff would nix Morse's chance but if he can push that batting average over .300 and hit a few more HRs, he will be on the offensive leader boards.
Mark I would have asked you first but your Q and A was late in the day
What do the Lerners think about the tragic scene yesterday at Nationals Park of yet another invasion of the worst fans in baseball (GQ called then them the worst in all sports)and turning what should be a home game into an away game.(so the Nats are now playing a 14 game road trip) Is it really they only think about money and do not care like Stan Kasten would express (the man who created this horror) ? I really can not believe they are happy to sit by and watch this unfold yet again? The little hope I have left on this season is the Lerners will finally wake up?
Steve M.
I don't like any of the choices Riggleman made in game situation all weekend. Bunted when he shouldn't have, allow lousy hitter to swing away etc.
In addition the Nats hitters break every cardinal rule I ever new like: never swing at the 1st pitch following 3 walks, if you swing at a 3 - 0 pitch you better really nail it. To me this is just a lack of team baseball IQ and to me that comes from the top.
Steve M.
I disagree with your conclusion that Detwiler should have been converted into a reliever based on his failure as a starter. The other day he gave up 5 runs in the 1st inning.
You overall point may be right but I don't agree with your leap of faith. Also; you keep saying that Rizzo didn't bring the best 25 players to DC. Who are the players he missed on?
Morgan? Gonzalez? and you think these guys get us more wins?
Give me a break,
JD, if the team won and the players executed, you wouldn't be second guessing. You are always one of the more positive posters here so surprised you are souring. The bunts moved the runners and unfortunately the subsequent hitters didn't get their jobs done.
A big play on Sunday was Werth getting tagged out at home and Nix stood on 2nd and didn't advance so the next batter sacrificed to move the runners to 3rd and 2nd and the Nats didn't score then. Huge turn of events.
The players aren't executing overall, plain and simple.
Agreed on swinging at 1st pitches after a walk.
CBinDC,I can answer that for you that when the Philly teams are winning, they will travel just like they did for years with the Flyers and Eagles until the local fans support their team and don't give them a chance to purchase tickets, they are like nasty insects, they will invade unless you give them nothing to feed on and in this case tickets.
Have you ever been the a Orioles game during a Red Sox or Yankees series? You would think you landed in Boston or NY. The difference is the Phillies fans are certainly the most obnoxious.
Man Oh Man Boz ripped a new one on Riggleman, the Lerner's and Jayson Werth on his chat. Basically called Werth out as a chicken sh?t loser for hiding after games. I like it. Then Riggleman and his terrible pythagorean, managing emotionally (can one say cronyism again), and in general playing for one run early and losing by one run late. Love it. Rizzo for being out of town playing draft geek while Rome is burning ... and then Ted Lerner for the too low payroll and manager's salary that is a joke league wide.
Boz open up with both barrels. Guess JayB will be pleased.
Guess we can now sit back and watch the drama unfold.
JD said...
Steve M.
I disagree with your conclusion that Detwiler should have been converted into a reliever based on his failure as a starter. The other day he gave up 5 runs in the 1st inning.
You overall point may be right but I don't agree with your leap of faith. Also; you keep saying that Rizzo didn't bring the best 25 players to DC. Who are the players he missed on?
Morgan? Gonzalez? and you think these guys get us more wins?
Give me a break,
May 31, 2011 1:33 PM
I'd give you a break if you deserved one. Detwiler is in a bad place right now. Sure, he lasted 3 2/3 in that game and was crushed. My contention on him even last year when he was in the Nats bullpen is that Detwiler is nothing more than a reliever.
True on the 25 man roster that the pickin's were slim but I still said Nix over Stairs, Bernadina over Stairs, Balester over Broderick (Rule 5) and Detwiler over Slaten and Alberto Gonzalez over Hairston.
They are subtle differences but I believe the bullpen would have been stellar and that would have been an improved bench. Slaten has given up 12 of 22 inherited runners to score and Matt Stairs hasn't produced a RBI.
I also would have traded John Lannan early in Spring Training with the hopes of getting some help at leadoff.
Rizzo, I believe knew that Nyjer was not going to be part of the Nats equation but he did nothing to replace him. The health of Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche are still beyond bizarre.
So while team rosters are far from perfect at the end of Spring Training, Rizzo further sat on his hands not willing to make changes as the needs called for it. His big DFA of the season so far----Brian Broderick which took him into May to make that move. Besides injuries necessitating other moves, thats the only DFA. So I guess Rizzo is content with this current team.
Hairston is channeling his best Nyjer circa 2010 with bonehead plays and getting into arguements with umps. Veteran leadership---Believe it! Yah, right....
Boz, or add the O's for Bozo. The guy is generally a clown. Be divisive enough to get people to read. People love controversy. We have JayB for that + conspiracy theories.
Boz, or add the O's for Bozo. The guy is generally a clown. Be divisive enough to get people to read. People love controversy. We have JayB for that + conspiracy theories.
A lot of what he referred (and apparently will be writing more about on Thursday) has been inferred by other beat writers. In particular the lack of access. The invisible Lerners. Werth leaving and not talking to reporters yet making a heck of a lot more than the FOF. Rizzo playing draft geek while Rome burns.
Most of these guys have been saying the exact same thing in more muted and cynical tones. But Boz just opened up with the 16 inchers.
Ripped at least 4 new ones that I can count.
Trading Alberto Gonzalez might have been a case of addition by subtraction. Whereas Hairston understands his role as a bench player (and currently the 3rd baseman with Z'man on the DL), AG always thought he should have been a starter and apparently did little to hide his discontent in the club house. Perhaps the Nationals (read Riz & Riggs) got tired of that act and decided to ship him out ala Morgan.
Good show Mark and thanks for explaining Riggleman behind the scenes as well as your thoughts on making changes to the roster with AAA guys.
I still think you make a couple of changes to shake it up a bit prior to Ryan Zimmerman coming back. Aubrey being 29 years old with some pop and ANYONE to replace Slaten. To find yourself trotting out Slaten who is leading the league (in a bad way) in appearances allowing inherited runners to score is atrocious.
This is just my opinion as a former BB coach: I think Detwiler is uncoachable. I suspect he is likely to keep doing what got him drafted. And this is just my opinion as a pastor: Pride is the thing that causes people to reject the help they need. Just a theory and intuition from halfway across the country. Recently someone here (NI) said going to Syracuse hurt Detwiler because the FO and field staff didn't appear to have confidence in him. Put me with the posters who think players are responsible for their performance. If I could ask a question, it would center on Detwiler's makeup as an athlete and his willingness to accept coaching. Just a thought or two...
Knoxville Nat - Alberto Gonzalez is a role player and good at it. The rumor always was he wants to be a starter. When is that a bad thing? If he were still here, he would have been starting in place of RZim. I just don't think he fit Rizzo's player profile which is he wants Veterans.
In this case, Hairston and Cora are 2 more Veteran's who have made poor decisions with the game on the line.
As it has turned out, AGonz has had a terrible year in San Diego against RH pitching so far but that is a tough hitters park too. Of note is that he has a .421 OBP against LH starters and a .278 BA with RISP which would actually lead the Nats and he has more RBIs already this year then he had in all of 2010.
Also of note is that AGonz changed agents dropping Scott Boras who I think was a big part of his problem with trying to push him as a starter.
We have a number of players who have been given the title of"bench player" -- there is usually a good reason for it. Either they are at the end of an ok career or just never quite made it. Once in a while, someone gets a chance and blooms late. Usually not. We are playing those guys as starters, which they are not. That's why Riggs talks about effort - they are working as much as they can - they just don't have the talent and are trying to make up for it with hard work. That is to be commended. Our roster is what it is right now - most of those guys we need, but not as starters, as bench guys and backup guys. A couple of others, well , you know..... I love watching Danny and Ramos develop, I think Werth will pan out eventually. I am looking forward to seeing Zim play again. By the way - isn't it about time for a Zim and Strassie report?
Sorry to be off-topic, folks, but I have a quick question for those of y'all who frequently go to the games: what are the odds the Nats take batting practice before the game tomorrow? Day game, getaway day, pretty hot weather. I think I'll try to go a bit early no matter what, but wondering whether I'd have a chance to catch some BP. Any thoughts? Thanks.
fpcsteve said... This is just my opinion as a former BB coach: I think Detwiler is uncoachable. I suspect he is likely to keep doing what got him drafted. And this is just my opinion as a pastor: Pride is the thing that causes people to reject the help they need. Just a theory and intuition from halfway across the country. Recently someone here (NI) said going to Syracuse hurt Detwiler because the FO and field staff didn't appear to have confidence in him. Put me with the posters who think players are responsible for their performance. If I could ask a question, it would center on Detwiler's makeup as an athlete and his willingness to accept coaching. Just a thought or two...
May 31, 2011 2:30 PM
I think you are on to something but more so that so many around him have built up his expectations where he believed and maybe still believes he is a future ace. Not going to happen.
Some of the best GMs are the visionaries and Mike Rizzo is taking a circuitous route to the inevitable.
BTW, I am one who also think players are responsible for their performance.
baseballswami said... By the way - isn't it about time for a Zim and Strassie report?
May 31, 2011 2:42 PM Certainly every few days. Tomorrow is June 1st so I hope Zim is a week away from some rehab games.
Getting Zim back will create a roster move. Who will it be, Stairs or Bixler?
Pay to Play and Doc:
I didn't mean to jump all over Doc specifically, but instead the Boswell-perpetuated myth that #1 overall pick pitchers don't pan out.
What has actually happened has been that in the last 15 years or so an inordinate number of #1 overall offensive players have become superstars- Chipper, A-Rod, Hamilton, Gonzalez and Mauer. If you can ignore the bright lights and look at, say, the first half of Round 1 of each draft, it's clear that highly regarded pitchers work out about as frequently as highly regarded hitters.
There's another reason pitching seems to go so high- the physical attributes needed to be an elite pitcher are easier to detect in young players than the physical attributes needed to be an elite hitter. Tons of guys have bat speed, but at age 18-20 it's hard to know who will develop the necessary patience and knowledge of the strike zone and defensive abilities. But if you've got an electric arm, everyone knows it before you ask a girl to the prom.
Steve M., I am to the point of believing Detwiler isn't going to make it. One qualification, however: he might be able to make the change somewhere else. Detwiler is in deep. He would need almost a miracle to get things turned around. Reliever? OK by me. But he can't learn in DC. No matter where he is or who he plays for, he has to start begging for help and taking that to heart. FYI--my comments are based on a WaPo article of a couple of years ago when St. Claire was fired. It alluded to conflict between Detwiler and him. Just thinking out loud...
The formula to winning is relatively simple. The Giants won last year because of Lincecum,Cain, Sanchez and Baumgartner. Their lineup was no better than the Nats.
The idea of having a rotation with SS, Zimm and say Bauer is very appealing. If they can't get Bauer, Cole or Hultzen and Starling is still available then they will likely go that route but Starling is young and likely 3 years away.
SteveM,
I have no problem with Gonzalez wanting to be a starter. What I'm suggesting is that he apparently was very vocal in his complaining to management when he wasn't starting and also in complaining within the club house. I have no doubt that if he were here today he probably would be the third baseman instead of Hairtson. I'm simply saying that management might have seen him as a cancer on the club and apparently got tired of his complaining.
Nice discussion Mark! I love these videos.
Anyone know what Riggleman has against Morse, or am I mis-reading what people think about that?
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