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Photo by Mark Zuckerman / NATS INSIDER Josh Willingham is eligible to become a free agent after next season. |
In actuality, "The Willingham Conundrum" is the dilemma facing the Nationals over the next 12 months with regards to their veteran left fielder. If Adam Dunn's future was the biggest question mark looming over 2010, Josh Willingham's future might well become a comparable storyline in 2011.
The dilemma: Willingham is entering his final season of arbitration. He stands to make about $6 million next year through that process. He's then eligible to become a free agent next fall. Thus, the Nationals would appear to have three options with The Hammer moving forward...
1. Sign him to a contract extension.
2. Let him walk as a free agent and receive draft-pick compensation.
3. Trade him, either this winter or next summer, to perhaps get more in return.
Which option makes the most sense for the Nats? I'm not sure anyone really knows at this point. I do know there's no chance of a long-term extension this winter. It just wouldn't behoove the Nationals to make that move right now with Willingham recovering from knee surgery. And, truth be told, it probably wouldn't behoove Willingham to sign now, not with his value somewhat diminished because of the injury. Might as well attempt to put up big numbers in 2011 and raise his stock.
Here's the question, though: How confident are you that Willingham will put up big numbers next season, and that he'll sustain that level of production over the next two, three, four seasons? The evidence doesn't suggest that's likely.
As much as we talk about Dunn's remarkable consistency over the years, Willingham is pretty much right there alongside the big guy. He's played five full seasons in the majors. During that time, his batting average has always fallen between .254 and .277. His on-base percentage has always fallen between .356 and .389. His slugging percentage has always fallen between .459 and .496.
And check this out. Willingham's year-by-year OPS since 2006: .852, .827, .834, .863, .848.
That, my friends, is called consistency.
Now, this can be looked at in two ways. On the one hand, there's nothing more valuable in baseball that a guy who you can count on to consistently put up the same numbers every year. That's the best argument for anyone who wants to sign Dunn. On the other hand, after five seasons of near-identical production, it seems pretty safe to say Willingham isn't about to make a giant leap forward and take his game to another level.
There was actually a point last season when it appeared Willingham might be making that leap. In late May, he was on pace to hit 34 homers with 113 RBI, a .286 average, a .437 on-base percentage and a .988 OPS that would have ranked third in the National League behind Joey Votto and Albert Pujols.
But as has often been the case in his career, Willingham's production tailed off considerably as the season progressed. He hit just .234 with one homer and a .652 OPS over his final 32 games. Obviously, the torn meniscus in his left knee played a role and ultimately required season-ending surgery. But the knee wasn't a factor in 2009 when Willingham went through a similar late-season slump.
In fact, this has been going on throughout his career when you compare his first-half stats to his second-half stats. His batting average drops 22 points after the All-Star break. His on-base percentage drops 38 points. His slugging percentage drops 41 points. And his OPS drops 78 points. Yet another example of his consistency.
None of this is to suggest Willingham is not a good and valuable ballplayer. He is. You can pretty much pencil him in every season for a .260 average, 20 homers, a .365 on-base percentage and an .850 OPS. Solid numbers all around.
But you can also pretty much pencil him in to miss some amount of time due to injuries, and you can also pencil him in to fade over the course of the season.
So if you're the Nationals, what do you do? Do you sign Willingham (who will be 32 by the time spring training gets going, by the way) to a three-year extension, with his salary probably pushing up toward the $10 million range? Do you let him walk at the end of next season and accept some amount of draft-pick compensation depending on whether he's a Type A or Type B free agent? Or do you listen to trade offers for him this winter and/or next summer?
It would be hard to fault Mike Rizzo for at least entertaining trade offers and seeing what kind of return he might be able to get, especially this winter while other teams could still get a full season of Willingham instead of only a two- or three-month rental.
Now, if there aren't any reasonable trade proposals, Rizzo certainly isn't obligated to deal Willingham. And if he does, he absolutely needs to go and find a suitable replacement both in left field and in a Nationals lineup that already could be losing Dunn.
Or Rizzo could commit to The Hammer for another three years, hoping that consistent level of production continues through age 35 and is worth $10 million per year.
Such is The Willingham Conundrum, a puzzle with no clear answer that still must be solved in the near future.
55 comments:
I don't know if they'll have the personnel to do it in 2010, but I think--and his second-half production suggests--that Willingham is the type of player who would benefit from a day off each week. That should help keep him healthier, and hopefully a healthier Willingham would maintain his production through August and September. If I were the team, I'd try that approach, and then listen to trade offers at the deadline.
If I was Rizzo, I'd put out some trade feelers and if you can get a top notch, power hitting outfielder in return, I'd take it.
Otherwise, I'd offer Josh a 2 year deal, for $13.5M ($6M in '11, 7.5M in '12) and add a $500K bonus for 140 and 150 games. Add in a vested third year at $10M if he can get 300 games played over 2 years. Give Josh a chance to get in the kind of shape he needs to be in to play a full season and not tail off in the second half.
If we let him go, and Dunn is already gone and we don't start replacing these bats, we'll be looking at 100+ losses again.
Mark,
Any chance Willingham is part of a deal for a Rays pitcher (Garza or Sheilds)? They are losing their LF and need DH help, but would they take his salary?
I'd trade him this winter. His second half drop-off is no secret, so his trade deadline value is lower. A playoff contender might want someone with a strong first half to help boost their leads and not sweat too bad leaving him off the playoff roster.
I don't know what they ought to do but based on past performance I suspect what they will do is neither trade nor sign Willingham but let him walk, take the compensation picks and then draft a couple of guys who might have an impact in year 12 of the Nats 5 year rebuilding plan.
Great array of facts on The Hammer MarkMeister!
Interestingly, The Hammer is supposed to be one of the strongest Nats in the weight room. Ironic that he loses steam in the second half.
A two year deal, if Nats keep him. Otherwise package and ship.
I hear that the Rockies have an interest in him. Look at the stats on Larry Walker, after he left the Expos for the Rocks. The Hammer might be able to do similar damage there.
I consider signing him to a three year deal right now, that way it is done when he is 35. If you wait until the trade deadline or the 2011 offseason, he will still want three years then, which will take him to 36 then. That is a big deal.
David @ 11:08 brings up the wild card. If you definitely don't want to re-sign him now you have to trade him because you risk that August slide he has every year and his value plummets.
I absolutely sign him to a 3 year deal with an option for a 4th year if the price is right. I also rest him at least 1 day every 2 weeks to keep him fresh. If you keep him at 145 games a year as a target and stick to that I think the Nats will see better results.
So I am thinking he gets $6 mill in arbitration so if you buy out his arb year you are essentially giving him a $3 mill raise if you pay him $27 mill for 3. He is still probably a bargain at that price as he becomes more valuable in a trade.
Now then, scratch all this if the Nats think they can get Carl Crawford as a Free Agent!
With Dunn likely gone, only because the owners won't pay him, might as well get rid of the only other guy who protects Zimmerman and knows how to work the count.
And while they're at it, Lerners/Rizzo might as well just trade Zimmerman. Why would he want to stick around after 2013?
We should also trade Strasburg. No way the Nationals want to keep him either. And their 5 year re-building plan will be in year one by the time he hits free agency.
Simply put you trade him. I love Willingham as a player, but the Nats need value and Willingham is a good trade chip. If you wait till midseason you risk another injury or 2nd half slide which will reduce his value. It is also better to trade him now so the Nationals have time to acquire (likely through a trade) a capable LF. If they wait till the deadline, they will either need to get a LF back, rush a prospect like Burgess or go with a below average player. Sure Morse is there, but no guarantees he will preform like he did last year, and even if he is producing there are question marks at 1B and RF as well.
Willingham could either be part of a big player acquisition (Garza, Shields, 3-way deal for J.Upton) or traded on his own for quality prospects. No they might not be in the Strasburg/Harper category of prospect, but they could be of similar value to Ramos/Espinosa. Either way the Nationals come out ahead. Even if they have to only take prospects back, they are more valuable than the draft picks after next season, who will be much farther away.
It won't be easy, and some fans will be upset (which Is why I'd love for them to get Justin Upton) but trading Willingham is the best thing for this franchise. They botched the Dunn situation and it cost them big time. Dan Hudson who was rumored to be part of any potential Dunn trade was awesome when he went to the D-Backs. And he was only one piece of the deal.
A couple of years from now, you want to be able to say: "that was a great trade."
No conundrum as I see it. JW is a class act. He provides stability and maturity to this team. He cannot be traded before the season begins. When the trade deadline looms in July and all hope is lost because the Nats are 25 games behind, a contending team will pay dearly for his bat. Trade him them.
Willingham is also a very streaky hitter. When he gets on a tear, watch out. But if we don't resign Dunn, you can expect his numbers to drop next year, making his trade value decrease. And if Bernadina/Morse don't work out, they we have a serious problem in the OF. Also factoring into the equation is the timetable for Harper.
We could really be shooting ourselves in the foot if we trade The Hammer before the 2011 season. But the bottom line is that we need to re-sign Dunn, then work on an extension for JW.
Steveospeak, what do you love about Justin Upton? His numbers are declining. He may be a better fielder than Willingham but Willingham's offensive numbers blow Upton's away plus Upton is owed $14,000,000 per year in the last 2 years of his contract.
Love the Hammer, but he's gone and Bernadina is our Opening Day LF. He's aging, injury-prone but, as Mark sez, consistent as all get out. But so is Dunn, and he's good as gone. I still see us signing Francoeur for RF, Bernie in LF and whathisname (34 for 51 stolen bases, minus 1.1 WAR, middleweight contender) Nyjer Morgan in CF. Morse starts at first unless we pick up a middle-of-the-road FA option (most likely Adam LaRoche). This cheap-as-all-get-out scenario fits the Lerners' style but leaves Zimm totally exposed, and able to be pitched around in the middle of the lineup.
Steveospeak, what do you love about Justin Upton? His numbers are declining.
StevenM, I really agree with Steveospeak on this. How can you say his numbers are declining? Please look at Justin Maxwell's age. Now look at Justin Upton's. He is ONLY 23 years old? ONLY 23!!!? His contract is such that he is under team control for a very long time. And he just may have had an off year while, (he has to be), he is still learning. The Nats have "prospects" they are hoping against hope can make it to the majors who aren't that much younger, are the same age or older? Burgess comes to mind for starters?
Because of Upton's age one could easily the Nats with an allstar outfield made up of players under 25!!!!? Especially if Eury Perez and Destin Hood keep improving.
In the end Upton seems to distract from the real glaring problem the Nationals have and that is with quality top of the rotation starting pitching.
Upton, Perez, Harper: would be a very nice outfield to have. With catcher now reasonably shored up, plus the MI? And third base? Then it really is all about the pitching at that point.
I wouldn't say Willingham's numbers blow Upton's offensive numbers away although you are correct that last year Josh outdid Justin.
Big difference in their age so I think long term Justin will have the edge but this is more short term thinking and you have a point there.
What would it take to get Justin Upton? Probably a lot.
Willingham, Clippard, Norris, and which ever of the AAA starting pitcher group that Arizona wants.
I would definitely make that deal. Would Arizona?
Come on Rizzo, make a big move!
@Steve M :
As Anonymous said, Upton is doing all of that at age 23, and not to mention he was dealing with a shoulder injury last season, which probably took away from his numbers. Upton isn't a sure thing in terms of a Longoria, Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, but he has the potential to be right up there with them. Upton is a safe bet to be a very good player aka a 4-5 WAR type of guy. Yes some of his value comes from his defense (but I don't see that as a bad thing), but his offensive game could be something special. Look at Ryan Zimmerman, he is display quite a bit more power now than his year 21, and 22 seasons (23 is when he had the hamate injury so I'm not taking that into account). Power traditionally develops (i.e. peaks) in your late 20's early 30's. And given Upton's tools I'd expect that to be the case here as well. He has the ability to be 30+ HR hitter, who steals 20 bases a year. That is immensely valuable going forward.
Not to be spammy or anything but if you are interested I wrote a couple trade scenarios for Justin Upton on my blog (just click my name), and why the Nats should give up what it takes to get him.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/6371/why-dbacks-are-shopping-justin-upton
As bad as the Diamondbacks have been, Upton was a fan favorite and was the #1 overall pick in 2005. He is good but was a big disappointment in 2010 after he signed that big contract extension during Spring Training. Now Arizona wants to dump him and I have to wonder why since he will be 24 years old. What do they know?
I don't have a crystal ball so I can't guess on his future, but his power numbers and caught stealings had significant negative changes. He was also criticized for not hustling and benched in 2009. He goes nonchalant after balls and his own fans have boo'd him.
Rizzo was probably that "mystery team" MLBTradeRumors reported that made a huge push for Upton and put the Redsox off.
He still needs pitching not just a corner outfielder.
There is another way to look at this. The acquisition of Upton to go with Harper and say, Perez/Morgan, in the outfield might not be enough to convince Cliff Lee to come, but it might be enough to convince Adam Dunn to stay?
Adam Dunn doesn't need better players around him to be convinced to stay. He wants a better contract offer from the Nats. It has nothing to do with the team around him.
Willingham, Clipp and Norris and some AAAA arms, Arizona would hang up the phone on you. Thats's a joke of an offer. For Upton, They'd want Espinosa or Desmond, and Zimmermann, and then more.
Mark @ 1:41. Jordan Zimmermann has to be an untouchable at this point. If I learned anything watching the SF Giants is that once you are in the Post Season, it is all about shut down pitching, solid defense and clutch hitting.
Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann are the nucleus of the young pitching staff and the Nats have them together through 2014.
Justin Upton for the next 3 years is not an upgrade over Josh Willingham. Getting back to Mark Z's question, I say re-sign Willingham for 3 years.
I agree with Mark 1:41 p.m. Upton is a premier player. D-Backs would start with Zimmer'nn and Clippard, probably ask for Hammer and Espinosa/Desmond pick, and probably our best minor league prospect other than Harper.
And I'd do the deal in a minute.
Willingham will be 32 on Opening Day 2011. Justin Upton will be 23. Upton is under contract through 2015 at which point he will be 28 and just entering his prime.
It may just be a difference of opinion, but I think Upton is a better defender, better base stealer, more athletic, and is at least Willingham's equal when it comes to hitting right now.
I think Upton would absolutely be an upgrade over Willingham for the next 3 years, and for several years after that.
Upton vs. Crawford
With Carl Crawford you only have to pay him. With Upton, there is uncertainty, a big salary to be paid and you have to give up players for him.
That is why the NY Yankees don't want Upton.
http://bronxbaseballdaily.com/?p=10093&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BronxBaseballDaily+%28Bronx+Baseball+Daily%29
I agree the Nats probably would rather just pay a free agent then give up prospects in a trade. The problem is that there is no guarantee that Crawford would come to DC. In fact, we saw with Teixeira that even if we make the highest offer, the player may choose to go somewhere else. The advantage to getting Upton in a trade would be that he would automatically be under team control through 2015.
@Mark
I think you are selling Norris a little short, he should have major value to the D-Backs in an Upton trade (or other teams for a top flight talent). He is underrated i think by fans, but I'm guessing most scouts love him. I think he is a great young talent, but I'm fine trading away since we have Ramos.
My only question if you trade Josh before the season starts what is your LF option: Bernadina? Maxwell?? Neither of them should be an everyday OF and I do not believe that platooning helps anyone's development. Neither of them could hit 4th or 5th! If I am Rizzo, I am most likely losing Dunn and I sign Carlos Pena and if I trade Willigham who protects Zimmerman in the lineup: Carlos Pena? Michael Morse? Wilson Ramos? It is hard for me to imagine a 2011 lineup without both Dunn and Willingham that will have any kind of production, look at what happened to David Wright's offensive numbers when the rest of his team started sucking, does Rizzo really want to put that pressure on Zim to carry the team by himself?
It boggles my mind.
Rob Neyer writes...His [Upton] career OPS+ is 112. That's impressive for a player who just turned 23. But 112 for a 23-year-old outfielder ... There have been many, many players with that profile who did not become superstars.
Which leaves me, if anything, more pessimistic about Upton than Marchman is. I think that Upton will probably improve, and become a big star. But he's not a great player yet, and it's not obvious that he'll become great. If it were, the Diamondbacks probably wouldn't be shopping him at all.
Upton makes a lot of sense for the Nats and a lot of that is inherent in the connection between he and Rizzo. I think he would play for Rizzo.
With Flores recovery Norris becomes an invaluable trade chip. He starts off the season in AA and is still a ways away from the majors defensively.
Upton is an upgrade over Dunn, Dukes, and Willingham. He should be considered on par with Zimmerman. And with 15 homers in 266 at bats, plus almost hitting .300 for the year 28 year old Morse looks like a guy who could play a consummate first base and hit 30+ homers. There is also another trade commodity in AZ in Mark Reynolds who also had an off year. He plays first base and would make a great backup at third for Zim.
There is a lot to be said for trying to work a deal with the Diamondbacks and their new GM who is better known for "deals" than for rebuilding through the farms.
This does appear to be a case where the Nats look like a match trading partner wise.
@Harper_ROY_12,
I think Mr. Rizzo sees things very much as you do. Even with Willingham in the lineup this is a last place team with a poor, unathletic outfield. Willingham was a catcher until he made the majors. Right? Do you really see him fitting the mold of the athletic, speed, consummate outfield that is the current philosophy Rizzo and brain trust are wedded to? And let's face it; they are right to believe in that.
Again, this is why Upton is intriguing and probably for Mike Rizzo very tempting ... imagine your guy in right, Upton in left and perhaps Perez in center ... there's also Destin Hood. This would be a very young allstar outfield in the making. The Nats have to think long-term not short term its just the way it has to be because of the Bowden MLB ownership years.
@Anon 2:21PM, the Yankees CAN THINK short-term and usually do albeit they do have a pretty decent farm system. In part that's because everyone wants to play for the Yankees. The Nats must think long-term and Justin Upton fits in both the short-term and in the long-term goals of the team. He is the kind of guy Rizzo says he likes to get to improve the team. Someone like Ramos who immediately improves the team in the short term as well as the long term.
However, again the problem is
I know there is some risk with Upton, as there is risk with any signing or trading any player, but I like the whole package that Upton brings. His value isn't based on one single tool, and at the end of the day he is just 23 years old. Few players are evaluated at the major league level at the age that Upton has been evaluated, so I think he needs to be graded on a curve. Both of this last two seasons have been good with 2009 being great. Players like that usually (not always) turn into superstars. I'll take the risk if i'm the Nats.
Side note: It is nice to see some Nats fans agreeing with me that the Nats could be in the discussion for an Upton deal, I'm taking a pounding by some other teams fans trashing the Nats prospects haha.
However, again the problem is: They need to find top of the rotation starting pitching ... they appear to have given up on Juan Jaime. Although no one may take a risk with him as he is recovering from surgery. There is also Marcos Frias ... there is AJ Cole ... and there is Stras. Perhaps Robbie Ray and now Sanny Solis?
One thing seems certain. If they do manage to get a couple of good draft picks for Adam Dunn ... we can almost bet money they will be used to draft starting pitching.
I hope to jaysus that we have some bone crushing hitters coming up through the system.
The Diamondbacks claimed right-hander Juan Jaime from the Nationals, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson (on Twitter). The 23-year-old right-hander didn't pitch in 2010, but he has a 2.42 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9 in 111 2/3 minor league innings.
Mark, I think you can now safely remove Juan Jaime from your 40-man roster. Interesting all of this activity with the Diamondbacks? Apparently, THEY ARE INTERESTED in NATS prospects after all?
You can't trade JZim, Espi or IDes if you are truly commited to building for the future. Of course DBacks will do that deal!
Trade them John Lannan if they want young starting pitching!
If you get JUpton, then yes you can trade Willingham.
"There is also another trade commodity in AZ in Mark Reynolds who also had an off year. He plays first base and would make a great backup at third for Zim."
Not to mention that he would replace the 200 strikeouts lost if Dunn signs elsewhere. Would Dunn's many fans transfer their allegiance to Reynolds, and give him a standing O whenever he has a 4K game?
"However, again the problem is"
You seem to have hit send before typing "JayB".
"However, again the problem is"
You seem to have hit send before typing "JayB".
Hmm anon@3;30 you seem to like making guesses? Its a good thing you don't work for the Nats FO because you seem too often to be wrong in your assumptions and you know what they say about that ...
Perhaps you should consider treating people with gentleness and consideration? It often goes a long way ...
Not to mention that he would replace the 200 strikeouts lost if Dunn signs elsewhere. Would Dunn's many fans transfer their allegiance to Reynolds, and give him a standing O whenever he has a 4K game?
Reynolds is only 26 years old. He still has time to make some adjustments and learn to be a better hitter. How old is Dunn? How old is Willingham?
The last time a GM fell in love with his old team (the Reds) it was a disaster.
This new GM seems to be in love with his old team (the DBacks) too. Garrett Mock, Emilio Bonifacio, Matt Chico. Now Brandon Webb and Justin Upton?
So far, all garbage. Do you see the pattern here?
Sunshine_Bobby_Carpenter_Is_Too_Pessimistic_For_Me, If your serious about that offer (at 2:06), its a good thing you're not the Nationals GM. Arizona would jump at that offer in a second. I'm not saying Upton isn't a good player and at his age, he still has great potential, but you can't trade away the team for one player (& yet for a guy who still hasn't lived up to that potential). In my opinion, there is no way we should part with Zimmermann - we need pitching and aside from Strasburg, who will be out the year, he is our best SP. To trade him, would be totally ridiculous. Even if was for another pitcher, it doesn't make too much sense to me. I also don't like the idea of trading either Desmond or Espinosa. In my opinion they can possibly form one of the best infield combinations for years to come for us.
Additionally, I like Willingham a lot. He's a very good ballplayer and a very classy guy. I would hate to lose him. If Rizzo decides to go that route, I would understand but would hope its for a starting pitcher who is ready now or for at least 2 very good soon to be ready prospects. I also think Rizzo would then need to address the outfield with another move.
Unless the Nationals know that Juan Jaime's injury recovery isn't going well, this is inexplicable and indefensible. They're letting a guy walk who has comparable stuff and minor league numbers to Neftali Feliz walk for nothing, so that they can keep J.D. Martin and Garrett Mock?
I think that ut would be best for the Nationals to leave Willingham where he is for right now. Don't do a contract extension, just see how things go in the first half of the season. The guy's a little old, and is recovering from knee surgery--there's absolutely no reason to sign a contract extension right now. Rizzo, et al can reevaluate around the All-Star break.
I can see trading Willingham and a couple of minor leaguers for Upton, even possibly including Norris. I hate trading Norris because he's promising and Flores is an uncertain risk until he proves otherwise - but you have to give up something to get something.
The Nationals aren't interested in Upton because they have Gardner, Crawford and Swisher in the outfield - an excellent defensive outfield that is the only part of the team not costing them too much money!
John C.
It's a good bet Arizona wants prospects, not veterans.
The only way the Nationals trade Willingham is for a great package and the only way the D'Backs trade Upton is for a great package.
There is no way the Nationals can trade Jordan Zimmermann who is under Nats control for 4 more seasons!
Peter Gammons of MLB Network did a nice interview with Bryce Harper from the AFL and then Jonathan Mayo did his Top 20 AFL prospects. He discussed Bryce Harper as "head and shoulders" above the rest.
Notably:
13. Sammy Solis
11. Derek Norris
2. Dustin Ackley (Seattle)
1. Bryce Harper
Get it right nats upton all the way...!!
If contracts were negotiated depending upon results at the END of the season, much of this foolishness wouldn't exist. Payment would depend upon results reached. The better the numbers, the better the payment. There sure would be a lot better motivation of the players and fans would get their money's worth. All this would make too much sense. The players wouldn't give up guaranteed bucks for doing nothing, playing lousy, and sitting out parts of the season. Look at SS. Fifteen million bonus, salary, and he's lost for at least a year. That's why there is injury and medical insurance which he probably don't pay for. I mean, if you just got fifteen million, why should you pay for insurance! Agh.
There is a lot to be said for trying to work a deal with the Diamondbacks and their new GM who is better known for "deals" than for rebuilding through the farms.
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