Monday, April 30, 2012

April: Encouraging/discouraging

US Presswire photo
Gio Gonzalez is one of four Nats starters with a sub-2.00 ERA.
After a rough trip out west that ended with four consecutive losses to the Padres and Dodgers, the Nationals are enjoying a much-needed day of rest. Here at the Insider, of course, there's no such thing as rest. (Those of you with children know what I'm talking about.)

So let's use this off-day, as well as the fact it's the final day of the month, to take a look at both the encouraging and discouraging developments of the season to date...

ENCOURAGING: The Nationals rotation has been, plain and simple, awesome. We're running out of superlatives to describe this group of starters, so let's just run through the stats. The rotation's collective ERA now stands at 1.78 (the Cardinals rank second in the majors at 2.57). Opponents are hitting .186 against Nationals starters. They rank second in the league with 129 strikeouts while issuing the second-fewest walks in the league (32). In 16 of 22 games to date, Nationals starters have surrendered zero or one earned run.

DISCOURAGING: Despite all those sparkling numbers, the Nationals' rotation has a collective record of 8-4. That's what happens when you've got a weak lineup and a bullpen that has blown four saves.

ENCOURAGING: Adam LaRoche just completed the best April of his career. The notorious slow starter has been the Nationals' most-productive and most-consistent player so far and enters May with a .329 average, a .415 on-base percentage, a .549 slugging percentage and a .964 OPS that ranks sixth among all qualifying hitters in the National League. Oh, and for those wondering, Prince Fielder's OPS right now is a pedestrian .832.

DISCOURAGING: With Michael Morse out since Opening Day with a strained lat muscle, the Nationals have received virtually zero production out of left field. Their combined stats from that position: a .111 average, .215 on-base percentage and .148 slugging percentage. Bryce Harper may struggle at times in his first taste of the big leagues, but he can't put up worse numbers than that, right?

ENCOURAGING: Remember when the Nationals were far and away the majors' worst-fielding club? Not anymore. They've committed only 11 errors in 22 games, tied with the Phillies and Cardinals for the fewest in the NL. If they handed out Gold Glove awards today, no fewer than five Nats would get serious consideration: LaRoche, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa and Rick Ankiel.

DISCOURAGING: The defensive play has not been as crisp behind the plate, where Wilson Ramos has struggled. Ramos has had a difficult time holding onto throws from the outfield, he's had trouble preventing wild pitches from reaching the backstop and he's only thrown out 1 of 13 base stealers. That's in stark contrast to a year ago, when he gunned down an impressive 32 percent of runners.

ENCOURAGING: They don't get a lot of attention, but relievers Craig Stammen and Sean Burnett have been outstanding so far this season. Stammen has really taken to his first prolonged stint in the bullpen and boasts an 0.84 ERA, plus 12 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings. Burnett, meanwhile, has picked up where he left off at the end of 2011. He's yet to allow a run and has put up a stellar 10-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The lefty has also stranded five of six inherited runners.

DISCOURAGING: As good as the pitching staff has been overall, the Nationals face a potentially tenuous situation in the ninth inning moving forward. Drew Storen had a bone chip removed from his right elbow and won't be ready to return until midsummer. Brad Lidge blew two of four save opportunities and now is on the DL with an abdominal strain. And Henry Rodriguez, who was brilliant for much of April, suffered a meltdown of epic proportions Saturday night in Los Angeles. The Nationals desperately need H-Rod to get back on track, because they're running out of viable options to pitch the ninth inning.

ENCOURAGING: The Nationals end April with a 14-8 record and share first place in the NL East with the Braves. Their .636 winning percentage represented their second-best month of baseball since arriving in Washington, bested only by the 20-6 (.769 winning percentage) mark the Nats produced in June 2005.

229 comments:

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A DC Wonk said...

...Damn--hustle and keep my head in the game...THAT's what keeps me from playing like Bryce! Thanks!!

You jest. . . but . . . it sure seems that way, sometimes, when, for example, you lead off the ninth, with a new pitcher, and you swing at the first pitch. Knowwhatimean?

JaneB said...

I will sound like a sap. But I am happy we aren't 6 and 14, like we have been other years. I am glad that Storen will be back in July 2012 and not 2013. I am glad to good coaching and scouting, and too many good pitchers. I wish we knew for sure we'd see Zimm and Morse full strength this year. But I am glad for everything else, not the least of which is a team in Washington and a great sportswriter who has been covering the Nats from the beginning. From where I sit, it's all encouraging. I really mean it.

peric said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
peric said...

Peric, two days = small sample size, They are not sending him down when Zim gets back (G-d willing) this weekend. But even week is a small sample size.

NatsLady, sample size isn't even under consideration. Davey Johnson wants to finish Bryce Harper's development. He does not want to trust that responsibility to the good Mr. Beasley and Doug Harris' organization.

No one pays attention! Mark Lerner was surprised to here that Harper had been singled out to come up? Rizzo had made it sound like it would be Tyler Moore. Guess what? When Lerner asked Rizzo he told him he had broached that with Davey and Davey said its time ... he wants Harper.

Johnson did what the organization wanted ... let him go and tried to use the veterans they had acquired for him. Right now Harper's job is to make Davey look like a genius ... making it look as if they should have just let him join the 24-man up front. If he does that I bet Tyler Moore could ride his coat-tails. And why not? Why not bench Werth if he isn't hitting and let Morse, Harper and Moore play?

If you don't believe this you haven't watched Davey Johnson manage a ball club.

NatsLady said...

Just saw this:

Nationals’ Brad Lidge to have surgery to repair hernia

NatsLady said...

You are preaching to the choir, peric. I said already several times that Harper would come up as early as possible and stay up. Other scenarios are possible (as I said, small sample size), but I vote for Harper "learning on the job" so to speak.

Section 222 said...

So Davey got his way, and got Harper up as soon as possible after the witching hour of 21 days passed. Of course, his task was made a lot easier by the futility of those professional hitters like DeRosa, Tracy, and Nady, who turned out not to be as good as.... Davey Johnson said they were. (Remember, it was Davey who absolutely had to have DeRosa.)

Anyway, I'm totally fine with Harper being here for awhile. It's going to be quite a ride. Can't wait to see how he does.

peric said...

Davey Johnson said they were. (Remember, it was Davey who absolutely had to have DeRosa.)

True but at the same time he likely had to agree about having a veteran bench to go with so many young starters. It pretty much always started out like this for him when he managed other places. Alex Cora got his first job as the Dodger's shortstop because Johnson was the manager. Brought him up from the minors when the veteran in front of him wasn't working.

It all has a very similar ring to it.

NatsNut said...

I'll vouch for you NatsLady. You did indeed insist that Bryce SHOULD come up and/or WILL come up as early as April, if not out of spring training. I know because i (silently) thought you were out of your mind. haha. You totally got me on that one. =)

Section 222 said...

Yup, I remember NatsLady taking that position too. And I'm pretty sure I didn't just silently think she was wrong, I probably said so too (since I rarely keep quiet when I think someone is wrong.) So take a victory lap, you deserve it. To be fair, that was before Morse got hurt and the Goon Squad replacements had a BA under the Mendoza Line. Now I'm on the Harper bandwagon big time and happy to recognize that NatsLady has a seat right up front.

Holden Baroque said...

Actually, the hanging curve is my specialty. I can't hit a slider for [anything].

Holden Baroque said...

I was arguing as late as last week there was no way Harper would come up. Worrrngg...

I now renounce and abjure my error. And all its minions.

Drew said...

Daniel Rosenbaum is unbelievable. On Monday night he threw 7 more scoreless innings without a walk, dropping his ERA to 0.76.

Going into tonight's game he had a CAREER ERA of 2.24 in 62 starts -- and it's going down again. Matt Purke has a major league deal and Meyers has a blazing fastball, but Danny Rosenbaum is going to pitch in the major leagues.

carolync said...

Wow! Mark's wonderful blog has been taken over by a few people who are flooding it with OT posts and private conversations. He took the time and effort to introduce an interesting topic and about 3 posts addressed it before the pontificating started. Too bad if anyone else wanted to comment on the topic. Get a life, people.

I'm outta here.

DHamm said...

I am a STH and it does not bother me one bit that they offer $2 seats. In fact, I think it's great that they try to get bodies in the stadium to sell $8 beers. Good business move.

NatsLady said...

carolync, one tough grader!

Went back and I thought it was one of the more interesting and educational threads I've seen on an off-day. I admit, I read Mark's posts, but they rarely say much that I don't already know and his comments, once read, stay the same all day. I'm far more entertained by the ebb and flow of the discussion--as long as it doesn't turn nasty.

Chewing over the weekend series, lots of stats, differing opinions on Henry as a closer and how Davey is managing Henry, excitement over Bryce Harper, spiced up with humor and zingers at the Fish, no personal attacks, in fact, support among "imaginary friends."

I think Mark puts a topic out there to start off the day, but I personally never felt that was the sole topic of discussion, especially on a day when he only puts one up there.

That's just me.

NatsLady said...

Here is Boz on Henry (from his chat):

"Henry Rodriguez __way ahead of schedule. Mine anyway. I've watched every flamethrower from Mesa to Benitez to Gossage to I-don't-know-how-many. In an amazing game where he felt responsibility not to screw up Strasburg's win and Harper's debut, he got really nervous and lost control. So what? He needs all those steps (and failures). You're looking for pieces for an eventual October team. You want them stressed to the cracking point __many times__ so that their acceptable stress load becomes higher and higher."

A DC Wonk said...

Wow! Mark's wonderful blog has been taken over by a few people who are flooding it with OT posts and private conversations.

Most of the comments have been on the Nationals -- how is that off topic? HRod, Harper, Davey, bench, farm, etc. . . . seems pretty much on topic to me, no? Or am I missing something?

A minority of posts seem to be about people getting to know each other . . . kinda like a community. I think that's a good thing.

MicheleS said...

So I will add this to Discouraging:

Lidge goes under the knife. Yuk! Hate to see that for anyone, but hope he gets better soon.

Henry, it's your job until Drew comes back. So take your best shot and grab the opportunity! We (as fans) will grab the bourbon and the maalox, just in case! Barkeep Sunshine, time to stock up!

natsfan1a said...

The bulk of the comments also struck me as on-topic, whether relating to specific points in Mark's post or to the Nats generally. I will also note that Mark's posts often say things that I didn't already know, him being a long-time baseball reporter with access to the team and all. In fact, much as I enjoy the commenter community that's developed around this blog (seriously, I do), it's our host's offerings that keep me coming back. I also don't mind his putting up just one post on an off day after a road trip. But that's just me. :-)

Gonat said...

NatsLady said...
Here is Boz on Henry (from his chat):

"Henry Rodriguez __way ahead of schedule. Mine anyway. I've watched every flamethrower from Mesa to Benitez to Gossage to I-don't-know-how-many. In an amazing game where he felt responsibility not to screw up Strasburg's win and Harper's debut, he got really nervous and lost control. So what? He needs all those steps (and failures). You're looking for pieces for an eventual October team. You want them stressed to the cracking point __many times__ so that their acceptable stress load becomes higher and higher."

May 01, 2012 8:49 AM
_____________________________

Thanks for sharing. This backs up a few comments and puts into question Coaches wisdom, I am sorry to say. Nats had 2 straight losses, the bottom of their order was coming up, like was written, Lett saw how poorly he was warming up, and a 2 run lead.

Sounds like Stammen should have finished it up. Again, all closers don't need 95 heat, stuff worked for Chad Cordero and Brad Lidge (previously).

Scott from Burke said...

http://deadspin.com/5906528/bryce-harper-played-softball-near-the-washington-monument-on-his-day-off?popular=true

Bryce whiffs..then flies out..i love this guy

NatsLady said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tcostant said...

I saw some comments on $2 tickets. The link is removed, so I assume they are all sold out now, but mezzanine was one of the three section offered. I know for a fact that June 5th vs. the Mets will be another $2 ticket Tuesday.

Anonymous said...

Numbers and Letters guy:

Just wanted to jump on your band wagon...your comparison of Henry to Joel was spot on. I remember the Hanrahan melt-downs and the similarities between those and Henry's latest resonate with deja vu.

NatsLady said...

Here is Phillies announcers on Cahill (he features a curve, slider, change):

"Unbelievable sinker, runs all over the place. Good breaking ball. Gives RH hitters a lot of trouble because of all the movement."

A DC Wonk said...

Sounds like Stammen should have finished it up. Again, all closers don't need 95 heat, stuff worked for Chad Cordero and Brad Lidge (previously)

Funny . . . I come to the exact opposite conclusion. Let him learn how to pitch in high-pressure nervous situations now, even at the risk of a loss, so that when we really need him down the stretch, when we're in the middle of a pennant race (and Stras has been shut down), he'll be a veteran (so to speak, as much as anyone who is 25 can be a veteran).

I remember the Hanrahan melt-downs and the similarities between those and Henry's latest resonate with deja vu.

Let us all figure out whether HRod is going be a Hanrahan _now_ or not -- so we know who we can depend on in the upcoming pennant race, with crucial games against the Braves, or Phils, or Fish, or whoever, (which I'm sure is in our future, just a few months from now).

The pressure he faced last week is small potatoes to what's coming up in Sept. Let him learn it now.

And that's obviously what Davey is thinking, too.

UnkyD said...

carolync: Scroll, baby, scroll...we're all friends, here...

Mick: love hearing from you, after a couple of deep breaths! Mix a few of those in with the Coronas, and the game threads will be awesome!!!

peric: liking your work SO much more, since seeing your name at the top!! I may have misattributed others to you..... Just liking the general tone, since the routing of the anons....

phiten said...

Ramos almost becoming a liability behind the plate. Dropped throws from the outfield and pop ups to the infield not to mention the miserable performance the other night with the wild man throwing ( although can't place the entire melt down on him). Need some consistency here somewhere if it is even just average!

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