Thursday, December 22, 2011

What's an appropriate package for Gio?

US Presswire photo
Gio Gonzalez is 31-21 with a 3.17 ERA (and 183 walks) the last two seasons.
It appears we're nearing a resolution on the Gio Gonzalez trade free-for-all that's been brewing for several weeks now, ever since the Athletics started hinting they were looking to deal the young left-hander.

The Nationals, to no one's surprise, are interested. General manager Mike Rizzo checked in with counterpart Billy Beane during the Winter Meetings, though came away at the time feeling like Beane's asking price -- three or four top prospects -- was far too high.

Two weeks later, has that price come down? Or is Rizzo willing to give up more now than he was then? Or are the two sides not nearly as close to completing a trade as it might appear?

We should have an answer to all of those questions in the near future, but for now let's talk about the real issue in this matter: What is an appropriate package of prospects to send the A's in exchange for Gonzalez?

That first depends on what kind of pitcher we believe Gonzalez will be over the next several years. We know what he was the last two seasons: 31-21 with a sparkling 3.17 ERA, having made 32-33 starts while racking up 200-202 innings. That's pretty solid, and because he's been virtually the same exact pitcher two years in a row, it's probably safe to say this wasn't a fluke.

On the other hand, there are a few red flags that need to be pointed out, most notably Gonzalez's struggles to find the strike zone. Do you know what pitcher leads the majors in total walks issued the last two seasons? Yep, Gio Gonzalez with a staggering 183 free passes (13 more than anyone else in the business).

This stat obviously correlates to the last one, but it bears mentioning: Gonzalez throws only 60 percent of his pitches for strikes. That ranks dead-last among the 77 big-league starters who have qualified for the ERA title the last two seasons.

Now, to be fair, there are some stats on the other end of the ledger that support Gonzalez's status as a true front-line starter. For example, over the last two years he has surrendered only 7.7 hits per nine innings. That's a better rate than Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia have posted.

And any discussion of Gonzalez's value has to include the fact he is under club control for four more seasons (he's arbitration-eligible this winter for the first time as a "Super-2" player).

So, knowing all that, what's an appropriate package of prospects to give up for the 26-year-old? The names being bandied about include the likes of Brad Peacock, Derek Norris and A.J. Cole. Peacock and Cole were listed third and fourth among all Nationals prospects this offseason, behind only Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, according to Baseball America's annual rankings. Pretty steep price to include either, if not both, of those players.

Norris has fallen down the ladder a bit (BA listed him ninth in the system this winter) but that's more a reflection of the number of top draft picks the Nationals have stockpiled the last few years. He's still highly regarded inside and outside the organization, and after a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League still projects to most as a power-hitting, big-league catcher with a high on-base percentage.

Now, the Nationals do boast more depth at catcher than perhaps anywhere else in their system, and it doesn't look like anyone is going to supplant Wilson Ramos behind the plate at Nationals Park anytime soon. So Norris is expendable, if he's used to bring something of real significance back to D.C.

So what do you think? Would you trade Peacock, Cole and Norris (plus perhaps another minor leaguer) for Gonzalez? Seems like a really steep price. But Rizzo has consistently said one of the primary reasons for building up a deep farm system is the ability to deal away some of those players for a premier big leaguer who can help you right now.

That time may finally have come.

129 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Nats need to keep Cole.

Dave said...

Rizzo, whatever you do, please give him a thorough physical before you make this acquisition.

Anonymous said...

I gotta believe that Gio's walks might come downa bit in the national league given he doesn't face 9 "real" hitters. Even if he doesn't, he will find it easier to get out of trouble with some unfortunate walks with a pitcher on deck or coming up. Anyway, I'd give Norris, Peacock or Milone (Preferably Milone) and Hood. Tyler Moore if needed to get it done.

Anonymous said...

Rizzo is going to get skewered either way. He is either over valuing his own players or he gave up too much in the trade. You have to give up quality to get quality and right now Gio is more valuable to the Nats than a AA pitcher who could be good in 2 years. Not to mention, Cole and Peacock could flame out ... trades are always a gamble. Regardless of what Rizzo gives up he will finally have landed his front line starter he's been coveting .. so that should make some people happy.

Brett Martinez said...

It absolutely is a steep price. However, Peacock is probably a3 starter at best. AJ Cole is probably about 3-4 years away from the majors. Giving up both would hurt though. Hopefully, Washington will only have to give up one or the other. However, Gio will be an impact player for the Nats. If you want a young ace, then you have to be willing to pony up.

Bowdenball said...

Mark:

The buzz from the ESPN guys is that the Nats are close to putting a bow on this thing. Are you hearing anything you can share with us?

jeeves said...

As far as i'm concerned Cole and Peacock are too much. Reluctantly, i would consider Peacock and Milone plus Norris and Eury Perez.

gonatsgo said...

Is it my imagination or is this a financially bloated trade/fa market? Seems like at a time when the economy is weak, baseball players are getting huge dollars with multi-year deals and the players featured in trades are bringing more in prospects than they are worth. No wonder Rizzo hasn't pulled the trigger. Everything is pretty over-inflated. Is every team really that desperate?

Nats1924 said...

ummm...anything more than the following, please pass

- Norris
- Peacock
- Cole
- Lombardozzi type of player would be ok.

Anonymous said...

I'd make this trade yesterday. Oftentimes wild you lefties find control (see: Johnson R.). 4 years of a proven talent is worth prospects that may never pan out.

Ryan Eades said...

I really want to see Peacock be the Nats' Matt Cain, but can live with it if they deal him. I'd be surprised if they give up Peacock AND Cole. That might be a little too high a price.

But man, I sure could live with a rotation of Stras/Zmann/Gio/Wang/Lannan.

You're still looking at Milone, Detwiler as your No. 6 & 7, for now. Be curious to see the depth chart in Rizzo's head on 8-10 with Meyer/Solis and others in the org.

If they thing they can take a shot at the wild card in 2012, they better feel good through at least No. 8 on that depth chart.

Side note: I really don't want them to deal Rendon in this deal. No real connection to him, I just really want him to be a beast for the Nats because they stole that dude at No. 6 in the draft!

Anonymous said...

If the Nats get Gio, I have to think Detwiler is part of the deal. He is likely to be the odd man out of the rotation (no matter which SP gets brought in). Detwiler and Peacock is too much, but Detwiler, Milone, and Norris seems fair.

jindc

Sec314 said...

I'd rather they over pay for a big bat than a sketchy starter. Oswalt for one year in exchange for money only is a much better bargain. Save the prospects to dislodge Hanley Ramirez or McCutchen from the Pirates.

markfd said...

I hear Destin Hood being metioned I hope not I think he will be special some day for the Nats

Anonymous said...

What is AJ Cole's ETA? I read anywhere from Fall 2013 to rotation in 2014. If so, if he's 2 years away, you'd make the deal now for a proven big league pitcher. It's common sense I think.

Section 222 said...

Four years of a proven lefty starter is definitely worth a lot, but I hope we don't have to give up both Peacock and Cole. One of them and Milone, maybe. Norris will bring more in a trade in another year, assuming that Ramos is as solid as we all think. So I hope we can hold on to him too. If he's what it takes to make this deal though, he's expendable.

Still, I'd rather throw some extra money at Oswalt or even Saunders than give up prospects of this caliber. By the fourth year of control either Peacock or Cole could be our #3 starter.

Sign Prince!

Anonymous said...

ummm...anything more than the following, please pass

- Norris
- Peacock
- Cole
- Lombardozzi type of player would be ok.


Cole looks like he may achieve A status with Sickels as it is he is a B+.
Replace with another prospect.

Lombardozzi may need to lead off and he is also ranked a B.

Peacock and Norris plus Destin Hood (also a B in Sickels rankings) sure.
But not just for Gonzalez they've got to throw a prospect the Nats way as well.

Anonymous said...

Peacock or Cole but not both. Then add Norris and some other seasoning.

Alex said...

Keep in mind we want a lefty to deal with Philly and balance the rhp starters. Need to target 2012-2016 and Cole won't be there til the end. Can't rely on getting Cain, Greinke, or Hamels for 2013.

Still have Solis, Meyer and Purke (and Ray) for the future plus Freitas and Solana behind the plate.

Still cheaper than what Reds gave for Latos (Alonzo and Grandal + 2). Do it

Anonymous said...

What is AJ Cole's ETA? I read anywhere from Fall 2013 to rotation in 2014. If so, if he's 2 years away, you'd make the deal now for a proven big league pitcher. It's common sense I think.

He and many other prospects are moving faster than even Nats mgmt. expected. Cole starts in Potomac but he likely won't end there. Once he's in Harrisburg he is a lock to make the pro's.

baseballswami said...

Tick,Tock, Tick, Tock -- it feels like something is finally happening that doesn't involve no-name minor league-ers. But - I am definitely in the camp that you just can't give away the store. My example is Chicago - bad deals made years ago are tying their hands now. I think Cameron is just a place-holder until Harper gets up and then he will be Harper's baseball daddy, who will teach him the ropes on and off the field. DeRosa - good versatility and potentially a good bat off the bench. Gio- fine as long as Rizzo doesn't give up way too much. How much do you want to give up for a guy who walks too many people and will probably be our #3?

Anonymous said...

AJ Cole is a projected #1 starter: see Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann. He may end up with an A grade by Sickels at this time next year.

No, you do not trade Cole.

Harper_ROY_2012 said...

I do not think the Nats can afford to lose both Peacock and Cole in the same deal. I say they need to sub another lesser pitching prospect. I would like to keep Norris but I am ok with parting with him, although I would like to move Flores instead. For a position player, if they want an OF, I say Bernadina should be moved before Hood but I would love to give them Lombardozzi, he might be good defensively but he cannot hit major league pitching he was LOST last year when he was called up.

So I guess I am saying Cole, Millone, Norris and Lombardozzi if they just want prospects for Gio. Hopefully such a trade means Lannan and someone else for a quality outfielder!

Ichibod Crane said...

Offer Tyler Moore(he's not going to make it), Detwiler and Arneson and see if the A's jump.

Whatsanattu said...

One in the hand is better than two in the bush. Peacock, Norris, Cole, Perez would be ok. Substitute Ray, Milone, Detwiler, or Hood for Cole if you can. It you probably can't.

Tom Boswell said...

I am prepared. I'm writing two articles. One, for if the Nats trade for Gio and one for if they don't. Either way, they'll both eventually be printed.

Not Werth It said...

Mark, I love your site and your writing, and that is not going to change any time soon.

However, I feel like this is your 5th or 6th 'It is okay if the Nats don't pull the trigger on this one' or 'The price was too steep anyway' post. It kinda seems like you are trying to defend (or preemptively lower expectations for) Rizzo's every (non)move.

It is supposed to be time for the Nats to compete. Spend some money. Burn some prospects. Of course the price is steep for a quality big league starting pitcher, do what it takes to get one if that really is your top priority.

I like Rizzo, but I want some results. I want some real talent upgrades. I'm not buying the it is okay to do nothing angle.

David said...

How about Desmond and Peacock?

MGG said...

Why are we still messing with pitching we need bats!

jd said...

I agree with NO to Cole. 2 of out of the following 3: Peacock, Milone, Solis. I would not trade Norris while his value is down.

Anonymous said...

How is it time for them to compete? I expect them to improve next season, but Stras will be out of commission by September, so it wouldn't be bad for them to save their bullets for the following season in my book.

That being said if they can get Gio for a reasonable package I hope they would do so.

alexva said...

Peacock, Detwiler, Norris and some other low level prospect not named Cole.

Bowdenball said...

Ryan Eades said...

Side note: I really don't want them to deal Rendon in this deal. No real connection to him, I just really want him to be a beast for the Nats because they stole that dude at No. 6 in the draft!

Rest easy. Players can't be traded until a year after they are drafted. That's why you don't see any mention of Meyer or Purke as a possible part of this deal.

Unkyd said...

He'll walk more batters here, without all the acreage of foul territory he had in Oakland.... I just wish that at that price, there would be no legitimately serious concerns.... This winter, I'd rather have the prospects... Let the stoning begin!

Anonymous said...

Cole won't be there til the end. Can't rely on getting Cain, Greinke, or Hamels for 2013.

He's in Potomac. Its not a far jump to Harrisburg and then the Pro's. This season is even a possibility!! This is an almost A graded (B+) prospect! You can't trade Cole because he may just be a Grienke or Cain.

Still have Solis, Meyer and Purke (and Ray) for the future plus Freitas and Solana behind the plate.

Solis like Taylor Jordan may need Tommy Johns. Purke is still rehabbing his arm problems from last season. Ray has not progressed as well as Cole and has dropped ... Rosenbaum is still headed for Syracuse to see if he can improve on the walks. Tommy MIlone is there and he definitely can pitch. There's your 4th or 5th starter.

So with Gonzalez (barring one involved in the trade) Johnson's rotation could feature Gonzalez, Detwiler (two power arms) plus Milone. Not bad. Lannan should be traded but at 5 million in arbitration he's not worth it to most teams.

Kylin Turnbull is another unknown TBD,

That's your left-handers.

Now the Right handers:

AJ Cole looks like another Stras or JZimmnn and really could be less than a year away. He's grading out that good. Top 20 overall prospect. He's a keeper if Stras and JZimmnn are.

Without Brad Meyers there really isn't anyone else on the cusp of the majors excepts possibly Erik Arneson. There's Cameron Selik and Paul Demny. Wirkin Estevez and Nate Karns have yet to reach Hagerstown.

Alex Meyer is still growing. No one really knows where he is until they see him in minor league ball. He is still adjusting to his height and again he may still be growing ...

Catching depth: Ramos, Flores and Solano in the majors.
Norris, Madonado in Syracuse
Sandy Leon and Beau Seabury in Harrisburg
Freitas, Leonida, and Nieto in Potomac
Mayo, Ramirez, and Pena in Hagerstown.

Anonymous said...

The Nats would be very fortunate if any of those guys turn out to be the impact player that Gio is...send desmond (opens up a spot for Lambo(

gonatsgo said...

Not Werth it - you referenced "quality big league pitcher" but Mark actually described a "pretty good big league pitcher". We are not talking Hallady here. His era is good, he is durable but he struggles to find the strike zone regularly. Trot that out there against the Phils 18 times a year and watch the pyrotechnics. So - what do you give for a pretty good big league pitcher? Not four good prospects. And - I think it's kind of funny that every one says Lefties develop later when they are talking about everyone else but John Lannan. Lannan they are ready to toss right under that bus.

jd said...

Detwiler instead of Milone or Peacock sounds pretty good to me. Beane won't go for that. I also wish we didn't deal Hood away; he is making great strides and may yet become a very nice player.

It looks like the Red Sox are pushing hard for Gio as well which makes me nervous because Beane will squeeze very hard. It may just be wise to walk away.

Anonymous said...

Acc. to @keithlaw the deal is done. #nats get Gio Gonzalez, give up A.J. Cole, Brad Peacock, Derek Norris and Tommy Milone. That's a haul.

Rizzo blew it. Let the stoning begin ... start with Boz.

Anonymous said...

Again, the choice for a GM is to pay a Cole Hamels $23M per year for 4-5 years or pay Gio much, much less. Maybe AJ Cole will be an Ace in 2015, maybe not.

Zuck - the answer to the question (What is an appropriate package for Gio) is -- the one the gets him.

dfh21

alexva said...

The Athletics will send Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals for A.J. Cole, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock and Tom Milone, ESPN.com's Keith Law reports (on Twitter).

Anonymous said...

It better at least be a 2 for 4 not a 1 for 4!

Gonat said...

I just heard SteveM drive off the road, just kidding. No way do you include Peacock and AJ Cole in the same deal---its one or the other.

For those that hate watching Lannan give up walks, Gio will frustrate you even more. His road record isn't impressive and he pitches currently in one of the best pitcher parks. Isn't he just a #3 pitcher with an exagerated resume'? Seems way to much to give up for a #3.

Anonymous said...

GIO!!

dfh21

Not Werth It said...

How is it NOT time for them to compete???

Constant Reader said...

I have been pretty clearly in favor of acquiring Gio. I'll play along for the package ...

Peacock or Cole. Not both.
Bernandina.
Desmond or Lombardozzi.
Flores or Norris.

Wally said...

If that KLaw rumor is true, I think the Nats paid more than the Reds for a lesser pitcher. It is actually pretty shocking.

But hey, let's go Nats.

Anonymous said...

Hood stays apparently Beane wants pitchers and catchers.

Anonymous said...

Stop the whining. This is the best trade Rizzo has ever made. The club just got a lot better and on the cheap. They can spend some coins on something other than Mark Buehrle now too. Hats off to Rizzo. (Though IU am still coming with the eggs if Ian is leading off.)

dfh21

Anonymous8 said...

Rizzo just cleaned out all the Nats prospects in one deal. He is a horrible trade partner just like it appeared on Greinke last year. He traded just about everyone. AJ Cole with Peacock, Milone and Norris.

Fire him now. This is just a horrible day in Nationals history aided by Boswell who forced their hand to do something.

Anonymous said...

Lots of times, these early tweets have some of the details wrong.
DH or not, Gio will still walk way too many guys. His starts against patient teams are going to be brutul.

alexva said...

That's four of our top ten prospects acording to a reputable rating source. Awfully steep price to pay. This cat better come up big.

Anonymous said...

Because they are still a year away.

Even if they make the playoffs next season, they will be there without their best pitcher.

Next season is for learning how to win. 2013 is for making their first run.

Gonat said...

dfh21, you have an opinion that I cetainly don't agree with. Its like a trade that we feared last year for Greinke. Its bending over and saying, just take them.

Gio Gonzalez will be a frustrating walk-a-thon.

This is making a trade because it is there to include AJ Cole is ridiculous. You give up 2 MLB ready pitchers in Peacock and Milone and give them the highest rated pitcher in AJ Cole.

Wally said...

Dfh21 - I'll bet you one of Uncle Teddy's $10 beers that the package going to the A's produces more WAR than Gio during Gio's 4 year's of control.

I am ok with giving up a package like that, but the guy needs to be a clearer stud than the 35th best SP out there.

David said...

maybe we can get another middling CF prospect along with Gio? ;-)

Not Werth It said...

Welcome to Washington, NatGio!

Oh my god guys they are just prospects. This is the reason we wanted a deep farm system. Our 1-2-3 rotation is awesome now.

phil dunn said...

Just announced: Gonzalez to Nats for Peacock, Milone, Norris and Cole. That is way too much to give up.

Jim Kurtzke said...

Good God. Peakcock, Mallone, Cole and Norris. That seems like a lot to give up for Gio.

Jim Webster said...

Gonzalez better be good, giving up that much (even if still prospective) talent.

Brendan F said...

Thank you, Nats Insider because Washington Post Nats Insider is just dreadful. Finally some update on this Gio deal!

Best part of the deal: under team control through 2015. His expected salary post arbitration in 2012 will be $4 Million. That's an absolute steal. His numbers, albeit his home park being the Coliseum, were comparable to CJ Wilson's:

CJ Regular Season

ERA W L SO WHIP
2.94 16 7 206 1.19

Gio Regular Season

ERA W L SO WHIP
3.12 16 12 197 1.32

That's $11.5 Million less per season and he's nearly 4 years younger. Get some, Rizzo!

Anonymous said...

Fuck you Rizzo

natsfan1a said...

Thanks for elevating the level of discussion, Anon@4:25.

Anonymous said...

Just announced: Gonzalez to Nats for Peacock, Milone, Norris and Cole. That is way too much to give up.

Old newsPhil dunn it was announced by Keith Law at around 4 PM.

natsfan1a said...

And welcome to Washington, Gio.

Sunderland said...

I ain't excited about this swap, but dfh is right:

Zuck - the answer to the question (What is an appropriate package for Gio) is -- the one the gets him.

dfh21

And so is the Anon who wrote:
Rizzo is going to get skewered either way.

natsfan1a said...

I was just thinking that, Sunderland. I guess I owe you a Coke or something.

And so is the Anon who wrote:
Rizzo is going to get skewered either way.

NatsNut said...

I can't believe what I am reading. Rizzo really has lost his friggin' mind. Gio Walkie-Talkie Gonzalez for not 1 young stud, not 2 young studs, but 3 young studs. All the pitching depth that would come in if Wang had a problem or any other starter is now gone.

These weren't blocked starters, these were the future.

Rizzo can celebrate with Boswell. I am stunned.

Anonymous said...

Deal is done: Peacock, Milone, Cole and Norris. sourced from the locker room

mjames said...

Before anyone gets too crazy please remember the Bartolo Colon /Phillips, Lee, Sizemore trade. That is gold-standard of these prospect for pitcher trades. Personally I think the price is too steep for Gonzalez. I would offer Milone, Norris and Hood. I think that is far more reasonable. If Rizzo truly believes Peacock is the next Zimmermann then he would be ill advised to include him in any trade.

I think all these trades are too one sided. Ask Cleveland about the their Jimenez trade last year.

Anonymous said...

I hate to see them give up Peacock and Cole, but you have to give quality to get quality. And a top 3 of Stras, Gio, and Zim is pretty damn good. I'll take it.

Anonymous said...

Santa Claus came to town today! Stras, Zimnn and Gio is a pretty good top of rotation! I'll match that up against anyone's.

NatStat said...

Hey Mike, did you give Billy Beane the combination to the Lerner's safe too!

Bad trade!

It ranks up there with Minaya's infamous trade of Lee, Phillips, and Sizemore for 3 mos. of Colon!

Start packing your bags Razzo!!

Anonymous said...

Again the ***REAL stats*** reveal Gio as a #3 starter with perhaps a #2 ceiling if McCatty and Johnson can teach him to lower the walk rate!

204.6 xIP, 4.09 tRA, pRAA 8.8 adjusted to be neutral to park conditions and defense.

That is a solid left-handed #3 starter and innings eater. In other words: Buehrle.

Unkyd said...

Bad deal. Too much. Not happy

jd said...

I think that Milone and Peacock are bottom of the rotation pitchers. If Cole pans out and if Norris straightens out then it will be a great deal for Oakland but at the same time you are getting a prime time pitcher in his prime and under team control for 4 more years.

I have to say Rizzo sure isn't a conservative GM. This one can go either way.

Exposremains said...

Great deal! Prospects are what they are. No guarantees! Mock, Balester used to be great prospects.

McKinley2 said...

Well, we'll get to see just how good these prospects actually were. One's own touted draftees are often stars in the minors and in brief September glimpses. Does seem to limit the Nats flexibility and back-up possibilities.

Anonymous said...

I guess the first call to Syracuse will be for Maya--ouch.

Anonymous said...

Wally -- yer on! But first let me say that I think WAR is some stupid junk. And the value of players is not in a vacuum. We need front line starters now more than anything and we have prospects to deal. But who cares.

I like my chances at that $10 beer. Peacock has closer stuff, so he may be in the bigs getting outs soon, but that is not a glaring need for our club for some time. He's the most likely to show WAR value over the next 4 years. Norris hit .210 in AA is 22 -- he might be a MLB regular in 2015, so I am not worried about him. AJ Cole after a season in Hagerstown is not going to be ptiching in the bigs until at the earliest 2014, so he's not scaring me either. Milone may be a MLB regular for the A's in 2012, but might not make the club out of hte Spring, we'll see, but he lacks the upside of Peacock, but he could be a 10 game winner. Who knows. Gio has a good shot at out performing those guys.

dfh21

Nattydread said...

So the move is made. Wow. Who said you can never have too many pitchers?

Much bigger than Jason Marquis signing for $2.5M!

Okay. Now can we get some bats?

Anonymous said...

Not Buehrle. Buehrle has no upside. Not a chance he'll get better and every chance he'll decline during the course of the next four years.

Anonymous said...

Unbelievable comments. Look at the rotation - Stras, Zimmerman, Gio, Wang and Lannan. A few years ago Lannan was our opening day pitcher! You win with pitching and now the Nats, right now (not some time in the future) are in the top three starting pitching rotations in the NL ( I put only Philly and SF ahead of them) plus we kept Clip and Storen. This is a great day. Now go get Prince and we are playoff bound!

Anonymous said...

I hope the rumor is not accurate. Trading both Cole and Peacock is unacceptable. Plus Milone!? Norris is expendable because of the depth we have at catcher.

The Nats will regret this trade, if the rumors are true. Any pitcher is one injury away from oblivion, e.g. Shawn Hill. Trading 3 top-to-good prospects for a #3 is imprudent and irresponsible.

Laddie_Blah_Blah

Gonat said...

jd, its too much. Can't give them AJ Cole AND Peacock. Milone fine. Norris fine. The best trades usually are the ones you don't make. You see it all the time.

He is better than Buehrle, yes, but Buehrle was only cash.

tayo said...

I dont like this trade at all. We have to Trade Lanan to restock our system What can we even expect to get for Lannan?

Drew8 said...

My God. I know Norris was blocked but I would not have surrendered Peacock And Cole. I sure hope Purke, Meyer and Robbie Ray have the goods.

baseballswami said...

Need some time to get used to the idea -- right now I am having problems coping with losing both milone and peacock right when I had started to become attached to them!This guy better step up!

MGG said...

Does gio hit baseballs really well? No? Then I don't see the point, we were pretty good with pitching last year, our problem was getting runs. This doesn't help that, making it imo worthless.

Anonymous8 said...

Beane got Rizzo at a moment of weakness and HE CAVED LIKE THE BAD POKER PLAYER we all thought he was. It proves to me without question that he would have traded JZim, Storen and Espinosa and a 4th player for Greinke last year -if- Greinke didn't veto the deal.

Anonymous said...

Not Buehrle. Buehrle has no upside. Not a chance he'll get better and every chance he'll decline during the course of the next four years.

He also has a lot of similarities to former Nats farmhand Oliver Perez. Remember that left-hander and how he flopped?

As many have said, this is a far riskier move for the Nationals than the Matt Latos deal was for the Reds. Needham is right they must get Fielder but also Oswalt!!! Then they have a chance to again replenish the farm through the draft and hopefully internationally this year.

They need Oswalt make no mistake.

Anonymous said...

I am loving this. Now some of you folks who seem to follow Hagerstown more closley than DC might focus your baseball attention where it counts, the big leagues. Rizzo done good.

Anonymous said...

Rizzo versus Billy Beane, no contest.

rfabs said...

I think it's a reasonable trade. The Nats are getting a proven major leaguer who probably still has room for improvement (e.g. control). Peacock and Cole both have potential, but it's in the future. Norris is not going to be the starting catcher. There is no guarantee that Milone's skills translate to the major league level.

Yes it's a lot to give up. Especially if three or four of the guys the Nats gave up turn out to be solid major leaguers. But Gonzalez makes them credible contenders this year.

This, more than the Werth deal, may be the defining moment in Rizzo's tenure here.

tayo said...

I am just going to stop following our minor league system. Saves me the heartbreak when we loose some of the prospects I like in a bad trade like this. Never been down on Rizzo for any of his other moves but this was the a really bad move. You give up this prospects for a true no 2 pitcher not one who walks that many hitters and one whos stat are aided by a pitchers park.

Anonymous said...

If Solis goes down with TJ like Taylor Jacobs ... there won't be much pitching down below unless pitchers like McGreary and Karns make comebacks from injury.

Rafael said...

AJ Cole is 19 years old and I'm reading like he's the next great thing. He hasn't even surpassed A ball. The kid could flame out before he even gets to the majors.

Peacock and Millone, some have said these two are better in relief.

And Norris was blocked by Ramos.

IMO, we would give up a backup catcher, 2 relief pitchers, and MAYBE, MAYBE a top of the rotation starter. This team still has 3 PITCHERS in their top 10. They had a lot of pitching depth.

NatsJack in Florida said...

Time out people.....Norris is a bat that doesn't have a position..... Peacock has had one and a half (1 1/2) productive seasons in the minors and Cole is still a project (albeit a pretty good one) that is still developing.

I'm not happy because I question Gonzalez and his command and his ability to pitch somewhere other than the Grand Canyon that is the Oakland home park...... But ... I'll take it as Rizzo's desire to get an apparent quality left hander in the NL east has been met.

But I want another solid bat....

and remember... we still have Ray, Solis, Purke, and Meyer so pitching wise, the system still can bear fruit.

Wally said...

dfh21 - WAR has flaws, but at least it tries to come up with a measurable value using the same metrics for everyone, and neutralizing things like a crazy park, etc. In Oakland, I bet Peacock and Milone see significant time this year, and 2014 seems about right for Cole and Norris. We'll see - if Gio gets his walks down, he should be 4 WAR pitcher, and I would be happy to buy in that case. One silver lining: this is probably a great trade for all the prospects, plus Gio. The prospects will get a crack at the majors a lot quicker in Oakland than here, and Gio gets to spend his prime fighting for a playoff spot (hopefully!).

I still think Rizzo got hosed on the trade though. I am not sold on the Human Gio-nome. I wonder what Rizzo could have gotten if he called up all the GMs and said 'I'll put these 4 guys in a package, and I am looking for SPs. Make me an offer.'

NatsJack in Florida said...

Who the heck is Taylor Jacobs???? Maybe you mean Taylor Jordan.

Yukon Cornelius said...

Bad trade. Banish Rizzo to the Island of Misfit Toys.

NatsJack in Florida said...

Actually, the Cole family is probably upset in that the 45 minute drive to Viera has now become a flight to Scotssdale, Arizona.

markfd said...

@NatsJack in Florida

You hit the nail on the head Norris is the 2012 version of Scott Hatteburg for Billy Beane, I am sure he will spend time in ST learning 1B. Peacock may or may not be lightning in a bottle, more likely not, Millone is ok but nothing special. Cole is so young no idea yet.

The system is still stocked an now pitchers can all move to a level that will challenge them not stuff them all down at Potomac and Hagerstown!

tayo said...

Whats done is done. How the hell do we replenish our system given the new draft restrictions??

Anonymous said...

So now it's J Zim, then Strassie, then Gio? followed by lannan and wang?

TimDz said...

I listened to an interview yesterday with Gio on MLB network and I like his attitude...I think he will quickly become a fan favorite...

As for the price Rizzo paid, I think that this years draft of pitchers made the potential impact down the road less severe.

Welcome to DC Gio!

sjm308 said...

Sunderland was dead on - Rizzo was going to take grief if we made the trade or got beaten out. I would have loved to see Detwiler as part of the deal but it was not to be. This is why Rizzo's strength is the draft and it finally paid off for us. We lost absolutely no one who was going to make a huge difference this year and we get an impact pitcher who has thrown 200+ innings for 2 years in a row, is under team control for the next 4 years and I believe was an All-Star. Does the group that is screaming "off with his head" realize what Cole Hammels will bring next year?
Not just next year, but the 3 years after, we will have a top 3 that is as strong as any in the league.
I will give Rizzo props for this move even though I would have loved to have kept Peacock. I am guessing he was a definite for Beane as well as Cole and that Rizzo tried to throw in LannEn or Detwiler and that was met with a chuckle.

I along with other glass half full people on here will now get ready for the playoffs.

Go Nats!!

natsfan1a said...

I don't pretend to have the know-how to be a GM, even of the armchair variety, but my initial tendency is to agree with those who have noted that these guys are prospects. We can't know with certainty how they'll pan out in the long term, imo. Of course, I suppose one could say the same for Gio (GiGo?), but he's ours now and I'm fixing to root for him.

Big Cat said...

I think its a no brainer. You do the deal. Its the old saying....you gotta break eggs to make an omelet. This guy is an established ML pitcher, with great stuff. He is in his prime and is signed for the forseeable future. Last year he was 16-12 with a 3.12 era. He had 197 k's in 202 innings and only gave up 175 hits. A very reliable stat into what kind of stuff a guy has is hits vs innings. Giving up a hit an inning is average. A fluke year you say? Ok, lets look at 2010....15-9 with a 3.23 and 171 k's in 200 innings. Hits vs innings was 200/171. Does he fade late in the year? He was 4-0 in his last 4 starts last year and was virtually unhittable. This is a no brainer.

Norris is expendable. A .210 hitter in AA. We have 2 catchers that are better already at the ML level. I like Cole...but he has never pitched above low A. Last year he was 4-7 with a 4.04 era and in 89 innings he gave up 87 hits. Not earth shattering stats. To predict the future of a low A baller is a crap shoot. Now Peacock is a different story. I think this kid is gonna be a stud, but nothing is ever set in stone. Also Gonzales is a lefty to put in between Moses and Zimm. I would even throw in Bernadina to seeten the pot.

Grandstander said...

And with that, all our top prospects are gone for a few years of a decent pitcher. Well done Rizzo, you got played, again.

I can't believe the inclusion of Cole still merited our top 2 pitching prospects. If I was GM I would've laughed and told him to go see what the Red Sox will give him.

This is a trade we will regret deeply.

Anonymous said...

Rosenthal, Bowden, and finally Bill Ladson confirm the deal first reported by Keith Law.

natsfan1a said...

So does Zuck, in the new post.

Dave said...

I like this deal. Sorry to see any prospects go, but Gio is a proven big-league pitcher. The prospects are not.

Seems like a lot of folks here expect the Nats to hold on to every promising young draftee forever. That's not how it works. You gotta deal some of these guys at some point. That's what happened today.

Welcome to DC, Gio.

rfabs said...

One other thought: is this now a rotation that looks more appealing for someone like Roy Oswalt to join?

NatsNut said...

Beane ripped off Rizzo on Willingham and he came back for more knowing that Rizzo is an easy mark. Surprised Rizzo just doesn't go back and deal Zimmerman for Daric Barton!

What a complete joke for Gio Gonzalez who is probably .20 better than John Lannan. NONE OF THIS MATTERS IF THE NATS OFFENSE CAN'T SCORE RUNS ON OFFENSE.

NatsJack in Florida said...

Just imagine all the Anon wailing that would have gone on if the Fish had closed this deal!!!

You have to be a big boy to do the deal. Like everything else, this, too will play out.

tayo said...

Since we have done this, we better just go all in now and sign both Feilder and Cespedes even though I did not want Fielder due to his poor defense and age. it makes no sense to only get Gio.

sjm308 said...

Tayo: you ask about replenishing our system. Did you not follow our draft from last year? Three quality arms and one of those was a steal in the 4th round. Rizzo will continue to excell as a scout and we will be fine. We will not be drafting in the top 10 for the rest of time so his scouting staff will be even more important.

sjm308 said...

Please, please, please do not let anyone on this site praise Boswell for spuring this deal on. This has obviously been in the works for quite some time and was just getting fine tuned. Sort of reminds me of when Boz wrote about knowing Gibbs and how he would never leave and he left the very next day.

DL in VA said...

We got our innings-eater pitcher!

Anonymous said...

This is not even close to the amount the Reds gave up...Yonder Alonso is a better prospect than anyone we gave up, additionally Yasmani Grandal, a former 1st round pick, provides the Padres with two quality young potential stars. Add to that Volquez and another arm... We gave up Derek Norris(who is blocked by both Ramos and Flores and will start declining in value as he ages), Tommy Milone (a fringe MLB/AAAA pitcher, whoever thinks he was a slam-dunk quality MLB pitcher is on drugs), Brad Peacock (a quality prospect but hardly considered elite, likely a 2 starter at best but more likely a quality 3 starter), and AJ Cole (a potential number one, but still at least 2 years away from being a member of the big-league rotation)... I think you will look back at this trade in four years, barring injury, and see what a bargain it was for the Nats. These is why we have depth in our farm system... to provide depth at the big-league level, to produce homegrown players, and to provide trading bait. Good move Rizzo

Anonymous said...

To add to my previous post at 5:29, Rizzo capitalized on Milone, Norris, and Peacock all being at their max trade value right now. He sold high, always a good move

Anonymous said...

NatsNut...Beane ripped Rizzo off on Willingham?? I'd say it was the other way around. Willingham can do one thing in the game, hit, but not at an elite level. Willingham is merely a sold/but easily replace hitter (notice the quantity of teams he has played for so far in his career, none of them considered him vital enough to break the bank for). Add to this Willingham is a god awful fielder, terribly slow, and on the back side of his career. Henry Rodriguez is a phenomenal arm and a great piece for the Nats

SonnyG10 said...

I was so angry when I first heard about this trade I wanted to go out and kill something. Major League baseball gutted our minor league teams and now Rizzo has done the same thing in I was so angry when I first heard about this trade I wanted to go out and kill something. Major League baseball gutted our minor league teams and now Rizzo has done the same thing in one fell swoop. I knew I would be disappointed at some point when Rizzo would trade a favorite player, but I figured that would be the cost of building a winner and I would just have to trust Rizzo to do the right thing. But to give away the store, I just couldn't handle that. Now, after reading a lot of the comments here, both pro and con, I have settled down somewhat. I still think he gave away the store, but I'm hoping I'm wrong. I will be rooting for me to be wrong. I especially take comfort in NatsJack's comments because he always seems to have a good perspective in matters regarding baseball. I sure hope this works out.

Anonymous said...

this is a stat i dont like: "a career ERA of 3.56 at home versus 4.32 on the road". the Oakland coliseum is a real pitcher's park

natsfan1a said...

You can say that again. Oh, wait.

----

I was so angry when I first heard about this trade I wanted to go out and kill something. Major League baseball gutted our minor league teams and now Rizzo has done the same thing in I was so angry when I first heard about this trade I wanted to go out and kill something. Major League baseball gutted our minor league teams and now Rizzo has done the same thing in one fell swoop.

NatsNut said...

@NatsNut,
Pardon me, sir or m'am, but that moniker was taken by me in 2007. I wonder if you might find another?

Dave said...

Yeah, I didn't think those hair-tearing rants sounded like our NatsNut of old.

natsfan1a said...

No, they didn't.

Dave said...

Yeah, I didn't think those hair-tearing rants sounded like our NatsNut of old.
December 23, 2011 8:40 AM

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