Thursday, March 31, 2011

2011 Nats predictions

Opening Day has arrived, and though the weather outside may not suggest it, baseball season is at long last upon us.

For those of you headed to Nationals Park today, be sure to bundle up and bring your rain gear. And be sure to stop by The Bullpen bar across from the center field gate, where ESPN 980 AM will be broadcasting live from 10 a.m. through 2 p.m. I'm scheduled to be out there from roughly 11 a.m. through 12:30 p.m., so please come on over and say hello.

OK, it's time for some predictions. As we did last year, my beat writer counterparts and I came up with a bunch of different categories to contemplate. Here's what everyone is predicting for the Nationals in 2011...

Who will represent the team at the All-Star Game?
Mark Zuckerman (CSNWashington.com) -- Ryan Zimmerman
Adam Kilgore (Washington Post) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Sean Burnett
Dave Sheinin (Washington Post) -- Ryan Zimmerman
Amanda Comak (Washington Times) -- Ryan Zimmerman
Ben Goessling (MASNsports.com) -- Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth
Pete Kerzel (MASNsports.com) -- Ryan Zimmerman
Bill Ladson (MLB.com) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Danny Espinosa
Craig Heist (WTOP) -- Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth

What will total home attendance be?
Craig Heist -- 2,512,759
Bill Ladson -- 2,500,000
Pete Kerzel -- 1,987,654
Dave Sheinin -- 1,841,000
Amanda Comak -- 1,640,000
Ben Goessling -- 1,585,000
Mark Zuckerman -- 1,562,538
Adam Kilgore -- 1,200,000

When will Stephen Strasburg make his next start in the majors?
Craig Heist -- Aug. 21 vs. Phillies
Bill Ladson -- Aug. 28 at Reds
Amanda Comak -- Sept. 2 vs. Mets
Mark Zuckerman -- Sept. 6 vs. Dodgers
Ben Goessling -- Sept. 9 vs. Astros
Adam Kilgore -- Sept. 23 vs. Braves
Pete Kerzel -- April 2012
Dave Sheinin -- April 2012

Where will Bryce Harper finish the season?
Adam Kilgore -- Washington
Pete Kerzel -- Washington
Craig Heist -- Washington
Amanda Comak -- Washington
Bill Ladson -- Washington
Mark Zuckerman -- Harrisburg
Ben Goessling -- Harrisburg
Dave Sheinin -- Harrisburg

How many total home runs will Harper hit in 2011?
Adam Kilgore -- 31
Mark Zuckerman -- 29
Amanda Comak -- 27
Bill Ladson -- 25
Dave Sheinin -- 24
Pete Kerzel -- 23
Craig Heist -- 22
Ben Goessling -- 19

How many errors will Ian Desmond commit?
Dave Sheinin -- 28
Pete Kerzel -- 28
Ben Goessling -- 26
Mark Zuckerman -- 25
Adam Kilgore -- 25
Amanda Comak -- 24
Craig Heist -- 23
Bill Ladson -- 20

How many RBI will Jayson Werth finish the season with?
Craig Heist -- 101
Adam Kilgore -- 92
Bill Ladson -- 90
Pete Kerzel -- 89
Ben Goessling -- 88
Dave Sheinin -- 88
Mark Zuckerman -- 86
Amanda Comak -- 83

Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many wins?
Bill Ladson -- Jordan Zimmermann, 15
Mark Zuckerman -- John Lannan, 13
Adam Kilgore -- Tom Gorzelanny, 13
Craig Heist -- Jason Marquis, 13
Dave Sheinin -- Jason Marquis, 13
Amanda Comak -- Jordan Zimmermann, 13
Ben Goessling -- John Lannan, 12
Pete Kerzel -- Jordan Zimmermann, 12

Who will lead the pitching staff in saves? How many saves?
Bill Ladson -- Sean Burnett, 25
Adam Kilgore -- Drew Storen, 24
Dave Sheinin -- Drew Storen, 24
Craig Heist -- Drew Storen, 23
Pete Kerzel -- Drew Storen, 22
Ben Goessling -- Drew Storen, 21
Amanda Comak -- Sean Burnett, 20
Mark Zuckerman -- Drew Storen, 19

When will they use a sixth starting pitcher for the first time?
Dave Sheinin -- April 22 at Pirates
Pete Kerzel -- April 23 at Pirates
Adam Kilgore -- April 30 vs. Giants
Craig Heist -- May 1 vs. Giants
Ben Goessling -- May 5 at Phillies
Mark Zuckerman -- May 8 at Marlins
Bill Ladson -- May 15 vs. Marlins
Amanda Comak -- June 1 vs. Phillies

How many games will the Nats win this season?
Bill Ladson -- 82
Craig Heist -- 78
Mark Zuckerman -- 77
Pete Kerzel -- 77
Adam Kilgore -- 76
Dave Sheinin -- 76
Ben Goessling -- 74
Amanda Comak -- 74

Special bonus question: When will the Zuckerman baby be born? (Due date: Oct. 4)
Bill Ladson -- Sept. 28
Pete Kerzel -- Sept. 30
Amanda Comak -- Sept. 30
Craig Heist -- Oct. 1
Mark Zuckerman -- Oct. 2
Adam Kilgore -- Oct. 7
Ben Goessling -- Oct. 9
Dave Sheinin -- Oct. 14

41 comments:

JayB said...

Congrats Mark....changes your life that is for sure....for the better.......I think Ladson is finally right...82 wins...that is all that really matters to me.

joemktg said...

Inherent in Sheinin's birth date prediction is the MISERY YOU'LL INCUR as a result of your wife carrying the load for an additional two weeks. Let's see: baseball playoffs + your bride blaming you for everything. Yeah: better you than me.

And the only way Marquis is reaching 13 wins is if total wins are counted after the trade deadline.

Anonymous8 said...

Mark Zuckerman -- John Lannan, 13

Really? Hope you are right and hope Ladson is right on JZim with 15.

Great stuff to ponder on the Bryce Harper too.

Andrew said...

Special bonus question: When will the Zuckerman baby be born? (Due date: Oct. 4)

Seriously? Wow, this is great! Congratulations to you and your wife!!!!!

Doc said...

Congrats on the great event, which eclipses all the other predicted events.

Due date?? Depends on whether it's a boy or a girl. If boy then September 27th; if girl October 5th.

natsfan1a said...

Wait, what? Zuckerman baby? That's great news! Congrats to Mark and to Mrs. Z. (btw, I've miss seeing her stop by the comments section). Good that you've got a full-time gig and bennies now, Mark! :-) And I vote for October 1.

natsfan1a said...

Crud, "missed." Daggone interface is going squirrely on me again.

Doc said...

How about some predictions for Mickey Morse's HRs in 2011?

Ladson doesn't think he can hit. Dave Nichols likewise. Not sure of the others' predictions on the matter.

Me? I say 30-35 if he stays he healthy.

N. Cognito said...

October 11th.

Mark L said...

That's a good point, that will give all of September for Mrs. Z to be an active contributor to this column.
Of course, after October 4th, we won't hear from her until 2013!

LoveDaNats said...

Mark!!! So happy for you and Mrs. Z! There is nothing better in life than your children! (not even opening day)

Sue Dinem said...

Congrats, Mark!

BTW, Why does Sheinin think Desmond will have a season-ending injury in July?

Anonymous said...

If it's a boy, name him Livan! Little Livo Zuckerman.

Mark'd said...

That is amazing news on the Zuckerman baby. I think If the baby is a boy, Ryan Zuckerman is a nice name! Congrats!

SonnyG10 said...

Congrats Mark...a new Nats fan, maybe a Nats beat writer in the making?

If he learns to lay off the breaking pitch outside, I'd say Morse hits 22 home runs.

Smatt1001 said...

Congratulations Mark!! I'm going to say Oct. 4.

raymitten said...

Who will represent the team at the All-Star Game? Zimmerman and Werth

What will total home attendance be? 2.6 million


When will Stephen Strasburg make his next start in the majors?
mid-September 2011.

Where will Bryce Harper finish the season?
Washington

How many total home runs will Harper hit in 2011? 28

How many errors will Ian Desmond commit? 29


How many RBI will Jayson Werth finish the season with? 104

Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many wins? John Lannan, 15

Who will lead the pitching staff in saves? How many saves? Drew Storen, 35


When will they use a sixth starting pitcher for the first time? late June

How many games will the Nats win this season? 80

Special bonus question: When will the Zuckerman baby be born? (Due date: Oct. 4) Oct 12. Congrats Mark!!!

RickH said...

Congrats, Mark!!!

Anonymous said...

Mark and Mrs. Z: Congratulations on the new backup shortstop on the way! Tremendous. Our two daughters are grown, 23 and 21, and what a ride you're in for!! We can only send our heartfelt congratulations and wish you only the best for both of you, and your soon-to-be healthy, happy, switch-hitting shortstop. Way to go!

John and Jaleh Schulz
Bethesda

phil dunn said...

Can't believe Kilgore's attendance prediction of 1.2 million--that is less than 15,000 per game! What does he know that we don't? That attendance would take some terrible weather and a terrible team.

Suicide Squeeze said...

Congrats! That's awesome!

I'll go on record with 81 wins. I figure with all the bad breaks they've had, the Nats are due for a few lucky bounces to kick up the win total above what it "should" be.

sm13 said...

In preparation for a great 2011 filled with hope, promise and a few more wins:

Who will represent the team at the All-Star Game? Zimmerman, Werth & Storen

What will total home attendance be? 2.2 million


When will Stephen Strasburg make his next start in the majors?
mid-September 2011.

Where will Bryce Harper finish the season?
Washington

How many total home runs will Harper hit in 2011? 35

How many errors will Ian Desmond commit? 19


How many RBI will Jayson Werth finish the season with? 92

Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many wins? Jordan Z -- 16 wins

Who will lead the pitching staff in saves? How many saves? Drew Storen, 30


When will they use a sixth starting pitcher for the first time? April 24 vs. Padres (bonus ansser, Detwiller will be the new 5th starter)

How many games will the Nats win this season? 79

Special bonus question: When will the Zuckerman baby be born? (Due date: Oct. 4) Oct 6. Congratulations the the Zuckermans!!

JayB said...

LOL Sue....I was thinking he was moving to AAA CF by July.....your comment makes much more sense!

ChicagoNatsGirl said...

Mark--Congrats on the baby! That's excellent news! And he/she will arrive just in time to see the Nats make their first post-season (if you can't dream on opening day . . . )

Best to you and your wife!

Sam said...

Congrats on the baby, Mark!

As soon as I saw the title, I was expecting to be able to point out how absolutely ridiculously crazy Bill Ladson's picks are...but they aren't. Wins, I think, are a little bit high, but optimism is afloat on Opening Day!

DCDingo said...

Congrats Mark to you and your wife on being in the "expecting" column. My two girls bring me a lot of joy, even if they roll their eyes when I start talking baseball. I'll be at the game today. I'm rummaging through my closet for the long johns.

Original Nats Fan said...

congratulations to you and Mrs. Z, Mark
I'll vote for Oct 9, my birthday
Nats win 80 this year

Anonymous said...

Lol Sue.....very generous saying July

John O'Connor said...

And Mrs. Zuckerman officially hates Sheinin.

Atrendance of 1.2M, really Kilgore? They probabyl have sold close to that already.

Anonymous8 said...

If Strasburg makes a Sept 6th comeback which seems like the optimum date, that should give the Nats on 5 days rotation probably 3 home starts and they could stretch it into 4 home games with a couple extra days rest.

That is 3 x 40,000 fans and if Bryce Harper is a September callup, Nats Park will be packed.

Throw in 3 sold out Phillie/Nats games and a sold out Opening Day and you get almost 275,000 in 7 games. Take 74 games at a light average of 15,000 and Nats Park should easily eclipse 1,385,000. Got to like Mark Z. going with 1,562,538 and not 1,560,000.

So there is 5 thinking BHarper will be in Washington in 2011 and 3 thinking he finishes in Harrisburg.

Heading to the Park. See you all there!!!!

JD said...

Congrats Rachel & Mark,

Wins - 75
Harper - Harrisburg
Strasburg - Whichever the most cautious smart date is; let's not rush him at all.
RBI totals - irrelevant.
Starting pitcher's win totals - irrelevant.
All stars - Zim, Werth.
1st pitcher called up - Detwiler (May 15th).

put MASN on in NC NOW said...

Anybody care to offer a bold prediction....mine, Desmond demoted by June.

Anonymous said...

My prediction: The "kindler, gentler" JayB turns negative again before the end of the day and sinks to new lows of negativity by the All Star Break. This is totally independent of the team's record, because he's a hater plain and simple. The only wildcard is whether he lashes out at his imaginary friend ABM today or waits until tomorrow.

JD said...

Anon @ 10:51,

JayB has his opinions about baseball with which you can agree or disagree but I do not find that he attacks other posters in a way which you are doing especially hiding behind your anonymous stamp.

We are here to discuss Baseball and the Nationals; your opinions about other posters are not welcomed.

Anonymous said...

Mark -
Mazel Tov, and good luck to you and Mrs. Z the rest of the way. May the baby be a great blessing and bring your family great joy.
Best Regards, Mark in Arlington

cadeck13 said...

Awww...a Baby "z"! Congratulations to you & Mrs. Z! Gear up for the most rewarding and hardest job you will ever have - raising children :) an exciting adventure is waiting for you! All the best to your growing family.

A DC Wonk said...

Mazel tov, Mark. In the words of the Sages: may it come at a good time!

(Obligatory on-topic point: how does Werth get to 101 RBI's if he's batting second, Mr Heist?)

As for Harper, I expect he'll finish Harrisburg's year. But it'd be silly to give him a taste of coffee after that as it would start his clock ticking -- or do I understand that correctly?

Anyone?

Anonymous said...

We ended up having six kids, and it's worked out great because they are all adults now and buy me all kinds of cool stuff and send me on trips because I was such a great dad.

So we adopted a four-year-old last year. The only problem is the only thing he'll be paying for when he becomes an adult is the cost of my nursing care and diapers :).

Kids are wonderful things. Congratulations.

Farid @ Idaho

dryw said...

Mark, congrats to you and Mrs. Z!

No predictions here, just enjoying the headline of "Game One" and savoring the thought of all sorts of lovely baseball in store for the coming months!

Ryan O'Halloran said...

I agree with Mark'd earlier today, who said ...

"I think If the baby is a boy, Ryan Zuckerman is a nice name!"

Scooter said...

Mazel tov, young man.

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