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The top two spots in the rankings have held firm, with the Reds making a huge jump and Atlanta continuing to tumble. Here's how Nationals Insider Mark Zuckerman, Nats writer Chase Hughes, and I see the rest of the league shaking out:
1. Cardinals (26-13; LW: 1) - Roney: In St. Louis, having the best rotation equals having the best record -- all five regular starters (who have made all but one start this season) have an ERA under 3.00.
2. Rangers (26-14; LW: 2) - Hughes: Led by Yu Darvish and Derek Holland, the Rangers have built the best starting rotation in the American League. Plus, 38-year-old Joe Nathan has been great as their closer.
3. Yankees (25-15; LW: 6) - Zuckerman: Vernon Wells: Utilityman? Hey, the Yankees are making it work right now.
4. Reds (24-16; LW: 12) - Roney: Jay Bruce's power is starting to come back, which is great news -- even if he continues on his 200+ strikeout pace.
5. Giants (23-17; LW: 4) - Hughes: How does Bruce Bochy do it? Ryan Vogelsong has been so bad he may skip a start, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum have 4.00+ ERAs, and Madison Bumgarner has been their only reliable starter. All this, yet they still lead their division.
6. Orioles (23-17; LW: 5) - Zuckerman: Turns out Jim Johnson is human after all. First blown save in 36 tries.
7. Tigers (22-16; LW: 7) - Roney: How nice of a surprise has Torii Hunter been? The oldest everyday player on the team by three years, he's hitting .325 with a team-high 11 doubles.
8. Pirates (23-17; LW: 14) - Roney: If the Pirates keep this up, they may occupy the unfamiliar role of buyer at the trade deadline -- though if things start to go south, they could probably get a great price for setup man Mark Melancon (one earned run so far).
9. Red Sox (23-17; LW: 8) - Zuckerman: Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz now combined 12-0, 2.21 ERA. That'll work.
10. Braves (22-18; LW: 3) - Zuckerman: The bloom is off the rose; they've lost 16 of their last 25.
11. Diamondbacks (23-18; LW: 10) - Hughes: Talk about Matt Harvey as the NL's best young pitcher all you want, Patrick Corbin has been just as good. The 23-year-old lefty is 6-0 with a 1.52 ERA, pacing an otherwise inconsistent D-Backs staff.
12. Indians (22-17; LW: 15) - Roney: Has Mark Reynolds finally curbed his strikeout problems? After being a near-lock to lead the majors in that category for years, he's not even the most whiff-happy Indian (an ignominious distinction that belongs to Drew Stubbs).
13. Nationals (21-19; LW: 9) - Zuckerman: One of these days, they'll actually field their real lineup again, right?
14. Royals (20-17; LW: 11) - Roney: James Shields has been good, but how awesome would an offensive outfield featuring Wil Myers alongside Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon look?
15. Rockies (21-19; LW: 13) - Hughes: The Rockies are what the Brewers were a few years ago. Two absolute superstars in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, but starting pitching holds them back.
16. Rays (20-19; LW: 18) - Zuckerman: They're starting to get on track; won 6 in a row before Wednesday's loss.
17. Athletics (20-22; LW: 16) - Hughes: After moving through April as one of the league's best teams, the A's have lost eight of their last ten. Their starters and bats have really cooled off.
18. Twins (18-19; LW: 17) - Roney: I know they're committed to a youth movement, but with none of their outfielders batting above .205, it's hard not to think they may be pining for the departed Denard Span and Ben Revere.
19. Mariners (19-21; LW: 21) - Hughes: Seattle is 11-6 over the last three weeks, showing signs of life. It's kind of amazing, however, that Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, and Jesus Montero all aren't living up to their hype.
20. Phillies (19-22; LW: 22) - Zuckerman: Forget about Roy Halladay; Cole Hamels is 1-6 with a 4.61 ERA.
21. Padres (18-21; LW: 20) - Hughes: San Diego is simply mediocre in almost every facet of the game. They might, however, have something special in Yonder Alonso.
22. White Sox (17-21; LW: 24) - Roney: With Vernon Wells and Alex Rios (.293, 8 HR, 20 RBI) playing well, you can almost understand the huge contracts Toronto gave them a few years ago.
23. Dodgers (17-22; LW: 25) - Hughes: A disappointing season all around so far, but they did just take two of three from the Nats and got Zack Greinke back. We'll see if that gets them going.
24. Blue Jays (17-24; LW: 27) - Zuckerman: Trying to claw their way back into the mix in AL East, but they've got long way to go.
25. Cubs (17-23; LW: 26) - Roney: Not a lot of great baseball in the windy city right now, but with Anthony Rizzo now locked up long-term for what the Cubs hope turns out to be a discounted rate, the core is in place for better things to come.
26. Brewers (16-22; LW: 19) - Roney: They need to find some pitching somewhere, because they're wasting incredible seasons from Ryan Braun, Jean Segura, and Carlos Gomez.
27. Angels (15-25; LW: 28) - Hughes: Mike Trout is putting together a nice season and Albert Pujols is coming around. Josh Hamilton though, yikes.
28. Mets (14-23; LW: 23) - Zuckerman: Is it a good sign when the manager starts calling out fans? Probably not.
29. Marlins (11-29; LW: 30) - Zuckerman: Only one regular hitting better than .250: Donovan Solano. Yikes.
30. Astros (11-30; LW: 29) - Hughes: Houston has 410 strikeouts as a team this year and just 105 walks. They've also allowed 43 more runs than the second worst pitching staff in the majors.
70 comments:
Who says Kilgore doesn't have a sense of humor? Gallows sense ... still ...
They weren’t the clutchiest bunch of clutches who ever clutched;
I'm watching the replay of last nights game on MASN. Painful to watch that 8th inning again.
With men on 1st and 2nd, Mattingly sac bunted the runners to 2nd and 3rd. Davey countered by IBB to load the bases. Carl Crawford did what the Nats batters couldn't do in the top of the 8th. Took an off-speed pitch and waited back on it and just lofted it out there deep to Sac Fly the runner home from 3rd.
Two nights in a row we had the same number of hits as they did. So the problem is not just making contact but situational hitting. You have got to find a way to move runners and score them. Even if it results in an out against a personal batting average. Nine hits- one run? How is that possible?
Dodgers at 23 cubs at 25. Lost 2 of 3 to both. Padres 21st. Not looking good. MEDIOCRITY at its best.
Nolan Ryan's son just named Astros president. So the Stros couldn't get the big guy, so they got his son?
Don't know whether you've been following that story down there, but I really feel for Bo Porter these days. It's a tough gig he signed up for.
>Nine hits- one run?
Did we really have 9 hits last night? That makes me wanna tear my hair out all over again!
Yes!! I did not see the game, but saw some highlights. Almost everyone in the lineup got a hit. Ramos doubled, ALR hit a home run. Singles, singles , singles, obviously not strung together. I just find that to be very odd. Apparently the Dodgers used almost every reliever to match up against our hitters. I guess it worked.
baseballswami said...
Two nights in a row we had the same number of hits as they did. So the problem is not just making contact but situational hitting.
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Of course! After Espi failed 3 times with RISP, he gets a single in the 9th with nobody on base. Then again, some people say there is no such thing as clutch which is why I wonder why they keep stats on it.
Got new posted. Small ball is good, but ya gotta know how to do it. Here is the Mets, trying.
Rick Ankiel hits a ground-rule double (4) on a line drive down the left-field line.
On-field Delay.
2. Ruben Tejada singles on a ground ball to left fielder Allen Craig. Rick Ankiel to 3rd.
3. Jon Niese strikes out on a foul bunt.
4. Jordany Valdespin bunt pops out to catcher Yadier Molina in foul territory.
5. Daniel Murphy walks. Ruben Tejada to 2nd.
Pitching Change: Fernando Salas replaces Randy Choate, batting 9th.
Coaching visit to mound.
6. David Wright lines out softly to second baseman Matt Carpenter.
Here is my beef with RISP-- you have to be willing to be personally out in order to produce something for the team!!! With two strikes , shorten up, battle off pitches, put the ball in play. It irritates me no end with a runner on third , zero or one out, the hitter does not sac fly, he makes an unproductive K. If that's Davey's approach, then maybe a philosophical adjustment is needed. I want a regular, healthy line up!!!! Ok- out of my system for today.
Oh, and according to Terry Collins, Valdespin bunted on his own, not ordered by the bench. That guy...
Bowden
If you're still out there... Kilgore doesn't want to question character and clutch, i question mental toughness and reacting well to pressure.it was on full display during the playoff and I haven't seen signs thats improving. I do think that late innings have more pressure. If you're bad against every team you're the problem. I know you don't agree just my opinion.
"Got new posted. Small ball is good, but ya gotta know how to do it. Here is the Mets, trying."
That's the rub. Have we made a strategic decision to avoid it in clutch situations in favor of long ball? Or, are we just bad at it?
I kinda think it's the former because we have had some success moving runners in early innings.
baseballswami said...
"Two nights in a row we had the same number of hits as they did. So the problem is not just making contact but situational hitting."
The Nats are actually 13th in baseball in sacrifice hits. 13th is among the better leaguewide rankings for this offense. They're actually very good at situation hitting when you consider that they get fewer opportunities for sacrifices because they're 28th (!) in OBP.
Speaking of OBP, I think part of the problem is walks. It's bad enough with the full lineup: the Nats are 22nd in baseball in walk rate this year. Without Harper and Werth it becomes a much bigger problem. Three walks in the last two games. That's one more than Harper drew in five innings on Monday. Although obviously part of that is due to the quality of opposing pitching.
swami -- you would think getting an RBI stat would be enough incentive to sac fly more consistently. But you have to take a professional AB to achieve that. ALR tried and just narrowly missed last night, Desi was trying for the three run HR and came up with nothing.
Revealing that two of Moore's more significant, game-winning RBIs -- his 2 RBI single in Game 1 and his sac fly against the Pirates two Saturdays ago -- BOTH came on soft flies to the opposite field by a hitter whose strength is to pull. Those came on professional ABs.
If you like Fangraphs and there definition of leverage (hi to low), RISP when you are ahead by 5 runs or behind by 5 runs isn't a hi leverage situation.
Exposremains, I think I agree with what you are saying which is what I just posted on how players do as the pressure of the situation increases.
Thanks for your thoughts, Expos. You're right of course, I don't agree at all, but I do appreciate the post.
I do like fangraphs, but I don't always understand it. Clip coming in and getting that last out didn't get him a "clutch" rating (though he did get a hold, because the tying run was on deck).
Let's face it-/ this line up starts looking a whole lot better with HEALTHY Werth and Harper. They have both either been on the bench or playing at less than a full tank of gas. I think we are looking at another week until they are up to speed. It does worry me, though, that Jayson is scratched from Potomac tonight.
Dave,
I saw Bo Porter ignore the rule that a relief pitcher has to face at least one batter - jeez you'd think he'd know that being around baseball his whole life. Kinda like Gibbs calling two timeouts in a row.
Oh well, at least Porter got away with it.
LaRoche was clearly trying to hit a sac fly. He popped it up 4 times during his AB (three went foul). He just didn't hit it quite far enough, but it was close. Suzuki just got under one. The real problem in that sequence was with Desmond swinging for the fences there. He must've thought he was getting pitches to hit because he's repeatedly been the guy preaching against trying too hard. It doesn't make sense that he'd randomly change his approach there.
Just very odd.
swami - that scratch of Werth was not good news, although Amanda and james Wagner speculated that it could be the chance of rain tonight? Though it seems odd that he wouldn't be OK with being pulled from a MiLB game if it starts raining.
Game got moving too fast for all of them.
Thanks Bowden. I like how our conversation turned out even though we don't agree. To be clear, I don't question them as human being, Im sure they are great guys. I do think the mental part comes with time and having deal with pressure many times. I think thats what makes the Cards so good even tough I really dont like them.
For as much nausea as Clip may bring us, he's been very good lately. He had a couple of rough outings, but he's getting it done. Drew has struggled, but his advanced stats are very friendly to him. He's really running into bad luck, I think.
Also, for as bad as our bench bats are, the Shark has been heating up. Moore and Tracy however...
Also, for as bad as our bench bats are, the Shark has been heating up. Moore and Tracy however...
Not really all three are pretty dismal at this juncture. The Shark is way off his performance early last season. The other two are within what they had last season at this time. In Tracy's case he really hasn't been much except for a month or so last season. He's the one to watch. If he doesn't produce they might release or DFA him.
'the Shark has been heating up'
Really? He has 0 extra base hits in 49 at bats. 6 singles and 3 walks. what has he done to make it appear that he's heating up?
Shark has 5 hits in his last 7 games. It took him like 20 at bats to get his first hit. He's definitely playing better than he was.
Roger has played great defense though making him equal to replacement level. The other 2 are way below replacement level.
Rizzo will definitely make some bench changes in the near term if things continue as they are. We may as well give Will Rhymes, Marrero and Owings a look.
And Kobernus.
Got new posted. Small ball is good, but ya gotta know how to do it. Here is the Mets, trying.
Small ball is bad. ONLY sub .500 teams with no chance offenses try this. Refresh your memory Natslady see Riggleman, Jim "smart ball". Lots of wasted outs on sacrifices. Lots of wasted opportunities on forcing hitter to always hit to the opposite field.
http://www.masnsports.com/index_medialounge.php?show_id=1730726&p=
Can anyone understand what got Davey so ticked off at the 1:35 mark to the 1:45 mark.
"I do think the mental part comes with time and having deal with pressure many times. I think thats what makes the Cards so good even tough I really dont like them."
Absolutely.
We may as well give Will Rhymes, Marrero and Owings a look.
All with the exception of Marerro must be added to the 40-man. Highly unlikely JD. Rhymes would only be brought in if they decide to give up on Tracy. And we know Davey won't easily. Owings seems very highly unlikely.
What seems more likely is Zach Walters and Jeff Kobernus at this juncture if there are going to be any new additions to the 40-man.
Marerro ostensibly gets swapped with Moore. I can see this if they feel the lack of AB's is hurting T-Mo. Marerro is more of an eventual sub that probably will never be a true starter.
"Small ball is bad. ONLY sub .500 teams with no chance offenses try this."
Did you miss NLDS game 5 and the April 2013 Cards @ Nats series? The birds were all over the small ball.
"Can anyone understand what got Davey so ticked off at the 1:35 mark to the 1:45 mark."
Someone asked him about a report in some paper about Bryce not wanting to change the way he plays. Probably an out of town reporter or a national media guy. Didn't sound like stuttering Adam Kilgore or girly Amanda Comak.
Did you miss NLDS game 5 and the April 2013 Cards @ Nats series? The birds were all over the small ball.
And the Nats and their power bats should have won that handily were it not for the relief staff pitching collapses ... especially Storen. How many runs lead did he have again?
The Nats were the superior team in that series bar none. But that's baseball.
That's also why the Giants had an easy time with the Cards.
On clutch hitting, put me in the skeptical camp -- at least on the question of whether it's a measurable skill.
Certainly some situations are 'clutch' but how do you define them in a comparable, meaningful way? Batting with RISP anytime? RISP only in the late innings? RISP in the late innings but only when your team is within two runs? Three runs? Within four? Does it have to be a meaningful game? Extra weight for the playoffs? Extra weight for the World Series? Reduce the weight if both teams are in last place in their division? Is leading off the ninth when you're behind by one run clutch? What about hitting in the tenth with two outs and nobody on base -- is that still clutch given that any run expectancy at that point has gone way, way down? Fangraphs' 'leverage' stats are moving in the right direction, but I'm still not convinced they do a great job (just like it's hard to come up with a defensive measurement).
Second, given that hitting the ball 3 out of 10 ABs is considered quite skillful, does it make sense to call someone a choker (or, at least, not clutch) if that drops to 2.5 out of 10 in 'clutch' situations? When you're probably facing one of the other team's better relievers? When the defense may be a bit more on it's toes than in the early innings?
Finally, take a look at some players' various 'clutch' stats not as career stats, but year-by-year. If you assume that 'clutch' equals 'mental toughness' or some such, then those stats would presumably be pretty consistent form year to year. But the reality is that for most players (not all, I'll acknowledge) that stats that people define as 'clutch' often vary widely from season to season to season. Up, down, up, up, down, up, down. Why? Small sample size and randomness, mainly.
We remember big hits and big misses (and then to label players accordingly), but for most players the 'clutch' stats -- however you define them -- tend to be within a standard deviation of the their career averages.
I asked Dan Kolko on twitter. He said it was indeed a question about Harper going all-out and that postgame wasn't the setting for that or something.
Gonat - from what the beat writers said, it was in reaction to someone asking about Bryce's comments that he wasn't going to stop playing hard. Guess he was tired of being asked about it.
Guess he was tired of being asked about it.
That's LA for you. Davey isn't inclined toward liking the Dodgers all that much anyway given what happened to him there. And many point to that debacle when they claim he is overrated.
Eric,Peric
This is a very easy argument. There have been extensive statistical studies on the subject and the result consistently show that you score more runs when you don't give away outs via sacrifice etc.
IMO the only situations which dictate giving away outs is if you feel that 1 run is all you need to win the game i.e bottom of the 9th etc. or if the hitter is so poor that he has no chance of getting a hit (mostly pitchers).
"Certainly some situations are 'clutch' but how do you define them in a comparable, meaningful way?"
Boz put it well. Something along the lines of, "you have full command and can execute your greatest abilities when the outcome matters most." I thinking was in his OpEd about the Stras Cubs meltdown.
I don't know how you quantify it, but I'd say it's precisely the thing the Cards had that we didn't in NLDS G5.
Dominats, thanks for the translation!
Eugene,
That's a very good explanation on your part and I agree. There is a well accepted theory in NY that Derek Jeter is one of the greatest clutch hitters of all time; this is perpetuated by well known talk show hosts like Mike Fransesca but statistics show that Jeter's stats in the playoffs are almost exactly the same as they are in the regular season.
It's that microscope again.
David Proctor said...
I asked Dan Kolko on twitter. He said it was indeed a question about Harper going all-out and that postgame wasn't the setting for that or something.
May 16, 2013 5:53 PM
EmDash said...
Gonat - from what the beat writers said, it was in reaction to someone asking about Bryce's comments that he wasn't going to stop playing hard. Guess he was tired of being asked about it.
May 16, 2013 5:54 PM
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Thanks to both of you. Can't say I've seen Davey react like that before.
JD, while small ball definitely includes occasionally giving up outs to move runners, I don't think it's at accurate to say that's all it entails. Bloops that fall, placing hits, etc, are all part of it. I agree that giving up an out is only worthwhile in very specific circumstances.
Davey went through a rough game with the Ramos and Detwiler situation plus the ongoing issues with Bryce and Werth back in DC.
Eric,
I think that for the most part bloops and 'placing hits' are more a product of luck than anything else. I think G5 had a lot to do with luck. I don't think anyone chocked.
Eric,
I do know what you mean though. You are talking about choking up on the bat, swinging the opposite way, shortening you swing.
I just don't think that this is part of Davie's philosophy. He wants his players to try for hard contact at most times.
I do agree that as a team we don't seem to have a good strategy for 2 strike hitting. As a whole we don't spoil good pitches and we strike out too often on really bad pitches
"Small ball is bad. ONLY sub .500 teams with no chance offenses try this."
That comes pretty close to describing this team.
MLB Network will be discussing Strasburg's attitude.
Eric Byrnes said the Nats are still the best team in the MLB and the Cardinals are doing everything right with exceptional starting pitching including Shelby Miller.
Harper is in the lineup tonight. Espinosa is not.
Tonight's lineup at SDP: Span 8, Lombardozzi 4, Harper 7, Zimmerman 5, LaRoche 3, Desmond 6, Bernadina 9, Suzuki 2, Strasburg 1
That comes pretty close to describing this team.
I suppose that could come to pass. Lots of singles hitter who don't like to walk.
Two young seemingly legit power hitters. One who is still recovering. One who has been pretty inconsistent since coming to the Nats. One who was way over touted from his days with the Phillies. One who sits on the bench and can't buy hits at this point from off of the bench. One who seems to need the rotator cuff surgery.
Me thinks they should bundle the two young power and perhaps future impact bats together in the lineup instead of spreading them out.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball."
I don't endorse small ball. I do endorse being able to do the basics, and they're not very good at most of them right now.
I think it's mental. Everyone of them heard all winter how good they are and nearly all of them decided they were so good they didn't need to listen to anyone tell them how to swing the bat, throw the ball, play their position and start with strike one. The general perception last year was that they were too young, by a year, to win a championship. It turns out they won a championship and they're still to young, except for Werth, LaRoche and Soriano (who are too old to learn anything) and three or four others. Maybe they need an 80-82 season to knock some sense in their heads -- and they're working on it!
Desmond goes up to the plate swinging like Adam Dunn -- all or nothing. Even when a ground ball up the middle were suffice. (Is there a statistic for league average for ground balls up the middle? I'd like to see Desmond's position on that list.) Every time he swings from the heels it's like listening to chalk on the blackboard (except they don't have blackboards or chalk in the schools these days.)
"too young"
Tonight's lineup at SDP: Span 8, Lombardozzi 4, Harper 7, Zimmerman 5, LaRoche 3, Desmond 6, Bernadina 9, Suzuki 2, Strasburg 1
Back to left-right-left again.
Really don't like the idea of playing Harper...it feels like Davey's a little desperate for a win, which should never be the case in May.
David Proctor said...
Harper is in the lineup tonight. Espinosa is not.
Tonight's lineup at SDP: Span 8, Lombardozzi 4, Harper 7, Zimmerman 5, LaRoche 3, Desmond 6, Bernadina 9, Suzuki 2, Strasburg 1
May 16, 2013 6:25 PM
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Good! Progress!
Really don't like the idea of playing Harper...it feels like Davey's a little desperate for a win, which should never be the case in May.
Harper won't leave him alone. As someone observed last night ... when Ramos went down the first guy over at Davey was Harper probably trying to convince him that he could catch. (Since Werth is out.). I bet he still carries that catchers glove somewhere.
Well Bryce said he felt good in the batter's box. He said it was elsewhere he felt "terrible." I don't think Davey would play him if Bryce was in bad shape.
Apparently Werth is playing tonight at Potomac. Maybe because of the rain?
isn't*
"I think G5 had a lot to do with luck. I don't think anyone chocked."
I agree 100% that no one choked. I would agree about the luck except the Cards swept us in April in almost exactly the same way. There's absolutely skill involved in placing bloops and grounders and bunts, IMO. Ty Cobb's thoughts about long ball v small ball are very interesting.
Oh but again, I don't feel offense should be built around small ball, I just think it should be developed as an option. Gotta be ready for anything!
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