Friday, December 21, 2012

No LaRoche resolution in sight

USA Today Sports Images
Adam LaRoche is holding out for a third year nobody seems to want to give him.
Earlier this month, when talks with Adam LaRoche seemed to be progressing, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said he wanted resolution to his No. 1 offseason task by Christmas.

We're now four days from that self-imposed deadline, and with few developments over the last few weeks, there's little reason to believe resolution is near.

The sticking point remains the same thing it's been all along: LaRoche wants three guaranteed years, Rizzo isn't willing to go beyond two. Throughout the process, other clubs have been mentioned as potential alternatives for the 33-year-old first baseman, yet none has emerged as a serious threat.

The Rangers appeared to be LaRoche's best non-Nationals option, especially after star slugger Josh Hamilton bolted for Anaheim last week, but they've hit the same sticking points that has scared off other suitors.

According to a source close to the organization, Texas GM Jon Daniels is unlikely to offer LaRoche a three-year deal and doesn't want to lose the first-round draft pick that would be stripped from him if he signs a free agent who was given a qualifying offer from his former club.

(The Nationals made that qualifying offer to LaRoche in early November: a one-year, $13.3 million contract. He turned it down, triggering the clause that would force any other team that signs him to forfeit its first-round draft pick -- or, if the team holds one of the top-10 picks, its second-round selection -- while compensating the Nationals with a "sandwich" pick between the first two rounds.)

The potential loss of a first-round pick also is scaring off the Orioles from making a stronger push to sign LaRoche, according to two sources close to the organization. Baltimore, coming off its first postseason appearance in 15 years, has yet to sign an outside free agent to a major-league contract this winter.

That leaves the Mariners as perhaps LaRoche's only other suitor, though their need for a first baseman diminished this week when they acquired Kendrys Morales from the Angels. Even without that trade, Seattle was a less-appealing destination for LaRoche, who has stated his desire to play for a team with a better chance of winning the World Series in the next three years.

Where does this leave LaRoche and the Nationals? Pretty much right back where they started nearly two months ago.

He wants to return. They want him back. He wants three years. They won't offer more than two. There doesn't appear to be another viable suitor for a Gold Glove-winning, Silver Slugger-winning first baseman.

And, unless either or both sides make a major concession in the next few days, this saga figures to extend beyond Rizzo's previously stated Christmas deadline.

235 comments:

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baseballswami said...

Got it NatsJack-- but so was Lombo, hitting lead off and playing second. And as I recall, well enough that the team kept right on winning without a major contributor like Desi. That's why I would be ok with Lombo. He carried his weight on a first place team.

realdealnats said...

I'm worried about back up Starting Pitching as well. Maybe Dukes is an answer, but not Maya in my book. But how do you get solid back up starters when the farm system's big guns are mostly coming off surgeries or not far enough through the program to face ML hitting?

Do you go after another starter now? Or pray?

NatsLady said...

Yes, he (Lombo) did. But, if you trade Espinosa, then you need a backup for Lombo/Desi. Last year, that middle-infield backup was--briefly--Izturis. The great strength of the Nats line-up is its depth. Unless you think Desi and Lombo will go the entire season without injury, maybe you want to keep Danny. Because otherwise you could have an Izturis type in there for weeks at a time.

NatsLady said...

Three middle-infielders are under team control and fairly cheap. Good teams have depth and, yes, a strong bench. When the Yankees were here, I noticed that some of their bench players could be regulars on other teams. Right now, we can afford to keep Lombo on the bench as depth and backup. No way are you going to get quality players for that price, so unless there is another Lombo in the farm system, a super-utility type who is major league ready, you keep all three.

Faraz Shaikh said...

sound argument with middle-infielders. I can't think of another team with such cheap options (except Astros of course).

baseballswami said...

We are indeed lucky to have such depth- well maybe not lucky, maybe shrewd . I think our depth was the reason we were able to go to the post season despite months of DL with major players. Other teams ( well, the one a couple of hours north if here), used DL time as an excuse and could not overcome injuries. Our bench is a real strength. Bernie, Lombo, Moore , all could be starters. So what is the deal with DeRosa? I heard he was retiring then heard he wanted to play. Time for him to coach, I think.

UnkyD said...

Good health would seem to allow us to swap a good young back up, or two, for younger prospects, each year, with the core being as young as it is, no? We could be looking at a fairly long run of relevance... It's good to be a Nats Fan!

peric said...

I know stats are sometimes overkill, but I thought this one shows Espinosa's potential and his weaknesses at the same time:

Alphabet Soup you are looking at one or two things about Espinosa and claiming them to be defects so egregious now Rendon is replacing him? As good a fielder as Anthony Rendon is he will NEVER, EVER be Danny Espinosa. Offensively Espinosa has just as much if not more ceiling than does Rendon at this point.

But let the stats I look at from stats corner speak for themselves:

Danny Espinosa paV (a player valuation stat) in 2012: 21,7 highest on the Nats.
Danny Espinosa paV in 2011: 21,6. Again, highest on the Nats.

As Natsjack said its a game that many deem perfect played by imperfect players. Of them Danny Espinosa has elite athletic skills that put him at a very high tier one that Lombo and Rendon would look up to ... that perhaps Harper might achieve ... but Espinosa will never be perfect.

MicheleS said...

My comment on Lombo: he doesn't have the range or defense ability of Danny. Lombo is average, Danny is stellar. Yes there is a drop off. I remember actually commenting a few times when Lombo was at second that he missed a few plays that Danny would have easily made. I think the utility role suits Lombo for now (not saying he can't improve).

One telling statement about Danny is that Davey compared Danny to himself. Stubborn. At some point Davey will get the light bulb to go off for Danny and it will be something to watch. (she says this hopefully, since she still has the Danny Rookie Jersey).

Side of Beef and JW Blue is still on the table, just sayin'

UnkyD said...

Please... What is this paV?

NatsLady said...

Sooooooooo---

Ladson wrote this today.

WASHINGTON -- There has been "a little bit of progress" made between free-agent first baseman Adam LaRoche and the Nationals in the last week, according to a baseball source familiar with the negotiations.

LaRoche has been asking for a three-year contract, but it's not known if the Nationals are willing to give him the three-year deal or a two-year deal with an option. General manager Mike Rizzo already has announced that he would give LaRoche no more than a two-year deal. The source also said the Nationals have not put a deadline on LaRoche as far as taking the deal off the table. Text messages to Rizzo and LaRoche were not returned.

baseballswami said...

Santa? You there?? Can you help? We've been really good fans. For the most part. Adam and a nice lefty reliever????

Alphabet Soup Erik said...

Peric-If Rendon performs the way most scouts predict he will, then his upside will be higher than that of Espinosa. The defensive advantage Espinosa has largely goes to waste because 2B is not a position where his skills lead to much of a difference in runs allowed (based on runs saved statistics). I understand that Espinosa has potential out the wazoo, but based on what this team needs right now, he has to start having more productive AB's. They don't need a 30/30 guy who hits .240 with 200 K's if he can't do the little things that don't show up on the back of a baseball card. I said he deserves another shot and he does, but sooner or later, I fully expect Rendon to force the issue. It seems to me that Rendon is a very similar player with much better bat control. Time will tell.

MicheleS said...

Swami.. His name is not Santa Claus, it's Santa Rizzo, and I am totally with you on getting Adam signed (thanks NatsLady for the update, shows no one has dug in their heals on the negotiations) and agree we could use another LOOGY. Not holding my breathe that this will be resolved when I wake up on Dec 25th. Would be nice if they had it all wrapped up in time for the Fan Fest on 1/26!!!

UnkyD said...

paV=plate appearance value?! REALLY?! I spent 15 minnits googling, finally found it at someplace called "statcorner"... And it appears to be nothing more than PA divided by 30.... I knew there was a reason I don't spend any time on "advanced stats". Please, somebody tell me I have this wrong... Not even Peric could love a player simply because he stepped up yo the plate more than anyone else on the team...... Right?

Eugene in Oregon said...

Just saw that the Mariners have signed Raul Ibanez. In an effort to generate some run support for their pitching staff, hey have now filled their roster with DHs (a few of whom can also play 1B), so I'm assuming they're out of the Adam LaRoche sweepstakes.

baseballswami said...

Ladson is making noise about Cody Ross being given a three year deal but not ALR.

NatsLady said...

swami, I'm on it. Ross got 3/26. That's AAV of only $8.7. ALR was offered 2/25 which is AAV of $12.5. Rizzo could throw an extra million in there and LaRoche would make the same money for only two years. Not comparable.

baseballswami said...

I agree- different team, different situation. By the way- show on MLB right now. - 40 breakout performances of 2012. Looks like several Nats will be represented. JZim got some love!

Faraz Shaikh said...

Swami, they should just put the whole team on that show.

MicheleS said...

Swami.. thanks! just set up the DVR to watch tomorrow!

baseballswami said...

Five players. Michele-- spoiler alert! 34-JZim, 17-- Stras, 9- Desi, 7 - ALR, 5 -Harper. Not one mention if Gio??? 3 in the top ten, though, not too shabby.

Sunshine_Bobby_Carpenter_Is_Too_Pessimistic_For_Me said...

Alumni News: Gascanrahan to the Red Sox for a handful of prospects.

peric said...

They don't need a 30/30 guy who hits .240 with 200 K's if he can't do the little things that don't show up on the back of a baseball card.

ACTUALLY, HE DOES ... and that's why his paV (a more fine grained, defense and park neutral way of calculating a WAR but less a value against replacement and more a real value by comparison), is so high given all the warts you seem to want to harp on. He's a still young player who hit 37 DOUBLES last season. Who else did that? No one.

peric said...
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peric said...

And it appears to be nothing more than PA divided by 30.... I knew there was a reason I don't spend any time on "advanced stats".

Its a bit more than that Unkyd. It uses the batV and posV to calculate it. They haven't posted all the formulae for easy access yet its still kind of new.

Way beyond anything NJack could ever fathom but to guys like him a p-value is probably a coupon at some bush league florida minor league park.

peric said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
peric said...

LaRoche has been told he has to make a decision at or around Christmas because it probably affects some move the FO may or may not want to make. And LaRoche has to know it affects guys like Morse and Tyler Moore at the very least.

Time to step up and say yay or nay. According to Rizzo it can take up to 6 weeks or more to complete a trade transaction due to all the steps teams like to take beforehand. There may be other GM's who just jump but Rizzo? He is going to take his time and make sure it makes sense.

MicheleS said...

Blah Blah Blah.. guess what.. even Adam said, the deadline is Opening Day. move on until it's settled, why? Because this is a business and it doesn't move on a a fan's timeline... soo as much as we want everything resolved, guess what, we have no say in this.

Still... just a wishin' and a hopin'

Alphabet Soup Erik said...

Peric-"He's a still young player who hit 37 DOUBLES last season. Who else did that? No one."

Denard Span had 38 doubles, hit almost 40 points higher, is faster, is just as good if not better a defender, is only 28, but you don't even think he will start. I am confused. Do 13 extra HR's really make up for all that other stuff...including 127 fewer K's...I don't get your logic.

UnkyD said...

I'm sorry, but I'm calling BS, on paV, until somebody can lay it out for me. Go here:

http://www.statcorner.com/bat.php?id=457787

Look at Danny's PA, divide by 30, and look at his "paV"....try each year. Then click on glossary, and see where they tell you nothing about how they get the number...

Come on, man...?!

Alphabet Soup Erik said...

UnkyD...I am partial to the Linda Ron-stadt: the number of times an opposing pitcher gets to sing Blue Bayou. Danny surely leads in that category...;)

UnkyD said...

God, what a sexy song, Eric!!

UnkyD said...

HoHo!!!! Now, on the stat page, click on the column-header "paV"... The following explanation appears:


"Replacement value, batters accrue 1 run every 30 PAs"

What am I missing, here?

natsfan1a said...

Loved Ronstadt's version of that one. Speaking of songs, Michele's wishin' brought this to mind.

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