The Nationals will elect not to tender contracts to left-handers John Lannan and Tom Gorzelanny and catcher Jesus Flores before tonight's midnight deadline, officially cutting ties with two of the organization's longest-tenured players and the only remaining lefty in their bullpen.
The decisions to non-tender Lannan and Flores weren't surprises; neither figured into the club's plans for 2013 or beyond. The removal of Gorzelanny from the roster was more surprising given the lack of any other left-handers in the Nationals' current bullpen.
The moves aren't official yet, but a club source confirmed all are planned before midnight.Lannan, who was drafted in 2005 out of Siena College and reached the big leagues two years later, is the Nationals' all-time leader in starts (134) and ranks second to Livan Hernandez in wins (42) and innings (783 2/3).
His standing within the organization dropped significantly this year, though, after the Nationals shipped the lefty to Class AAA Syracuse after going 10-13 with a 3.70 ERA and earning a $5 million salary through arbitration. Lannan initially requested a trade, but wound up spending the majority of the season in the minors, ultimately returning to make six starts for Washington down the stretch (he went 4-1 with a 4.13 ERA).
The Nationals could have kept Lannan in the organization for another season. He actually has one more minor-league option and could have again been stashed in Syracuse to serve as an expensive insurance policy in case of injury to another member of the rotation. But general manager Mike Rizzo, out of respect for the 28-year-old, let him instead become a free agent after failing to find a trade partner.
Flores was once thought of as the Nationals' long-term catching solution, but the former Rule 5 draft pick saw his promising career derailed by a major shoulder injury that sidelined him nearly two seasons.
Drafted away from the Mets in Dec. 2006 at the urging of Davey Johnson, who at the time served as an adviser to former GM Jim Bowden, Flores got another chance to play everyday this summer after starter Wilson Ramos suffered a season-ending knee injury. But he struggled at the plate (hitting .213) and behind the plate (throwing out only 15 percent of basestealers) and wound up back on the bench after Rizzo traded for veteran Kurt Suzuki.
With Suzuki and a healthy Ramos back in 2013, plus the emergence of young catchers Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano, the Nationals had little need to keep Flores in the organization.
Gorzelanny was let go despite a productive season as a long man in the Nationals' bullpen. The 30-year-old, acquired from the Cubs in 2011 for three minor-leaguers to start for Washington, posted a 2.88 ERA in 45 appearances this season.
Ultimately, Gorzelanny's price tag -- he stood to make as much as $4 million through arbitration -- was too steep for a pitcher in his role.
The decision does leave the Nationals in a predicament, with zero left-handed relievers currently on the roster. They'll have to hope to either re-sign free agents Sean Burnett and/or Michael Gonzalez or acquire another lefty or two this winter.
170 comments:
John Lannan, Free Agent. His phone will be ringing off the hook!
I have to assume that the Nationals are close enough to finding that 5th starter that they felt comfortable letting Lannan go.
I always liked John and am sure he'll be in a major league rotation for another five or six years.
I'm saddened by what happened to Jesus Flores. Before his slew of injuries, he had 574 at-bats in his first three seasons in the major leagues, hitting .260-16-99. The guy was going to be a stud.
I guess I understand about Gorzelanny, but I hope they find a good replacement. I got to cover the Nationals for my paper out here in Idaho back in May, and my fondest memory was of the afternoon I spent in the locker room.
The music was blaring, the players were high-fiving, laughing and enjoying themselves as they prepared for their game against San Diego.
But sitting in front of his locker (first on the left as you walked in the door) was Gorzelanny, quiet and still, reading what looked to be a book on his notepad. He never moved, never lifted his eyes, and never talked to a soul.
Still not sure what to make of that, but he seemed out of place, like an Iowa farm boy in the big city.
But he also looked like the kind of guy who'd give you the shirt off his back.
But hey,he's earned more than six-million dollars before the age of 30. I think he'll do just fine.
Farid @ Idaho
From the previous post, i kind understand what peric is saying.if u think about it, it makes sense.imagine span starts the season the way pujols did last season, he could be benched? Yes, he will? Probabilidade not, but he could.
Just saying that davey hás no obriglation in starting span like he hás To werth or harp or zim
All of them are going to land somewhere in MLB.
I'm a fan of all three. Not sure why they let Gorzo go....$4mm in to-day's baseball economics is a relatively small price to pay for what can do.
Doc: its the same 4 million or so for Lannan. I thought they would keep at least one of the 2 lefties. I just don't understand letting all 3 go. I guess they tried to make moves but its a smart world out there. Now, all 3 can be picked up by anyone and we get nothing.
Lannan got crushed and supported here on a regular basis. In my opinion, as cruel as it would have been, I would have been fine with storing him at Syr. for the start of the season. I still worry about the injury bug that pretty well did not infect our group last year. Lannan would have been a decent security blanket for that situation.
Not sure why they let Gorzo go....$4mm in to-day's baseball economics is a relatively small price to pay for what can do.
Part of it may be the fact Gorzo did not fit in with the chemistry and makeup of the bullpen as Farid observed.
But I suspect Rizzo feels he some better solutions in place. He had better because Davey absolutely hates not having any left-handed relief. And Mike Rizzo has to know that intimately well.
There's nothing available from the minors as yet so ...
According to Boz they have already signed Zach Duke perhaps they were just waiting to clear some roster space. Even with Duke they will still need a lefty short man or two.
I suppose one possibility is Danny Rosenbaum. He finished the year in AA and was the Nats minor league pitcher of the year in 2011 so one could potentially see he and Duke but they would still need a short guy.
very interesting.... as a famous Laugh In character would say. Does letting Gorzo go mean a huge signing for a stopper who is a lefty? I will miss Lannan, I have mixed feelings, i think he could have still won 10-12 games. Flores was a warrior, but alas, he was the odd man out
Ghost... thanks for your analysis in previous post on the possible 5th starters, I thought it was quite good
Unknown... good perspective on Gorzo... seems like a great kid, too bad he won't be here for the WS
Get real. You really think they even remotely think Rosenbaum is going to have a chance to be on the 25 man roster?
In fact, I like Brown but he has not been able to produce to the liking of Davey or Rizzo. Hence, they trade for Span. Brown could hit .500 this spring and Span will still get the start if he is healthy. Its just the way it works.
And gee didn't they say the same thing about Morse? Did **YOU** and everyone else call him AAAA right? WHO LOOKS SILLY AND STUPID Numbskulls who never really played like FeelWood. My god what a friggin' knuckle dragging knucklehead. JayB actually played moron that's why the guy actually knows what he is talking about even if you don't like it! Sorry but FeelWood you need to go feel something else please.
And then there's Lannan? Oh he'll be the starter and when I said he was barely a fifth starter according to his stats. Now everyone is mourning his loss predicting he'll be some kind of ace with the Brewers. He'll end up in AAA just like Bally did. That's just who he is and how he pitches. He made some improvements but Lannan still can't get past the fifth inning very easily. Who was right about Lannan? Who? Right?
Morons.
Get real. You really think they even remotely think Rosenbaum is going to have a chance to be on the 25 man roster?
Look at the roster seamhead down to AAA then to AA. Its there on NationalsProspects.com and Springfieldfan maintains it. Rosenbaum is currently THE ONLY viable lefty that could make the 25 out of spring training.
There really isn't anyone else dude or haven't you been watching?
That doesn't mean it will happen Seamhead it just means the roster is what it is.
Morons.
I'm going to miss all if them I do hope they sign Burnie
Plus Sean is a stopper lefty
One more thing this might be a sign
And the name calling begins...peric,Have you looked at Rosenbaum's second half results from last year? His AA stats? Also, you really think Rizzo traded thier top pitching prospect for Span and there's some way in hell that Corey Brown, or Roger Bernadina will start? The only way that happens is Span's collarbone/shoulder injury hasn't completely healed. Assuming that Denard is healthy, the Nats have the best OF in the majors. Take your meds, you're having a hard time focusing in on reality.
Rosenbaum?? There are plenty of hard-throwing lefties available in the Rule V draft. Rosenbaum is nowhere near this list.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=rule5
This train is leaving the station. Those 2010 tickets have expired.
I'll miss LannEn but his 88 mph "pitch-to-contact" style doesn't cut it any more.
Gorzy leaving must mean we are either close to a deal with Burney or some established lefty.
Kid Flores had his chance. This must be Wilson is already well on his way back.
I'm fine with all three.
Brian Wilson is available.
Maybe there's no chance in these cases, but isn't it worth mentioning that nothing prevents the Nats from re-signing any of these players for something less than they would receive in arbitration, right? Lannan would never do it, and we probably don't want Flores (or we would have kept him, he's not that expensive, but I wonder if that's an option for Gorzo. Davey's going to want at least a few lefties in the pen.
You have to believe Rizzo has irons in the fire regarding the pen.
No one here really knows what Rizzo is going to do. I don't recall anyone predicting a trade for Span, for example. I would not make any assumptions about anything. Rizzo has options. He always does, and he always keeps them open. Even he does not know which of those options he will exercise, because he does not know what outcome(s) will result from current uncertainties, e.g. ALR signs, or he doesn't sign.
If ALR signs, Rizzo has that covered. If he doesn't, Rizzo has that covered, as well. If Span gets injured in spring training, Rizzo has that covered, too. You could very well see Corey Brown get his shot, in that case, and you never, ever know.
After all, it wasn't so long ago that Chris Marrero was a lock as the Nats future first baseman. I always thought TyMo was a better option, and now TyMo has supplanted Marrero. But then there is Skole as an alternative possibility. If ALR walks and Morse is traded, TyMo will get his shot.
And even Rizzo was convinced that Nyjer Morgan was the answer in CF. That was (what?) just 2 years ago? Nyjer is available, again, for a lot less than Span was, but I don't think the Nats are going to pick him up, regardless.
Lots of possibilities and absolutely no certainties, except that there are no certainties. Lots of opinions, and all are reasonable possibilities. There are no idiots or morons here, just differences of well-reasoned opinion. Reasonable people can disagree, but can't we be more reasonable and less disagreeable about it?
Laddie Blah Blah said: Reasonable people can disagree, but can't we be more reasonable and less disagreeable about it?
Amen to that!
Lannen will be missed, so will Flores and Gorzo I suppose (not as much though). Good luck to all 3 wherever they may go.
NatsJack-
I second the sentiment. I love the Winter Meetings, especially since the Nats really became players in the market. I felt sure that there was zero chance the Nats would pick someone up in the Rule 5 draft, Rogieshan, given how low they will pick, but after your comment I am willing to imagine a 5% chance. It's not like a non-tender like Manny Parra could solve our problems.
I wish we could have traded at least one of the three, but I am happier with Lannan getting a clean slate and the chance to ensure he is in a Major League rotation. I'd prefer that none of the guys end up in the NL East, because I would like to root for their success. I especially hope the Marlins don't take Lannan or Flores, because they have already suffered small crowds in their careers.
+1/2St.
Here's something to make us all feel better about saying good-bye to our old friend John Lannan, from Mark Townshend on a Yahoo Sports blog:
You know you're overflowing with starting pitching when you can stash a left-handed arm like John Lannan's at Triple-A all season and then cut ties with him for no return in the winter. Lannan will have no trouble finding a job and shouldn't earn much less than the $5 million Washington paid him in 2012.
I hope he is right. In the meantime, while I truly think Danny Rosenbaum has no chance to make the Nats' roster this spring, it would at least allow me to move his bobblehead over with the big boys. It is sorta small, though, and would look pretty silly, just like Rosenbaum would be in DC at this point.
+1/2St.
Good luck to John, Tom, and Jesus. Thank you for your time as a Nat. You all helped us become a winning team last year.
I hope they all find a good place to play. There is no doubt that they are MLB players and have a new future ahead of them.
NatsJack, I am with you, Rizzo just freed up some money to spend. Could he be going after the Lefty bullpen guys with these moves or is he using it for ALR or perhaps a really good Starting Pitcher? The Winter meetings are going to be fun this week.
Penny wise and pound foolish. A team can always use decent pitching. The Nationals had already lost several front line pitching prospects through trades plus likely Burnett and Gonzalez via free agency. They may end up regretting letting Lannan and Gorzo go. Cheapness is showing through once again. I have no problem with the Flores move.
Peric, you are truly a mess, I actually enjoy some of your posts, but the quicker you learn that this is a opinion based discussion, the better, don't look now, but you may not be the smartest guy who posts here.
Decent Lefty reliever was non-tendered:
Rich Hill (coming off TJ) The 32-year-old lefty pitched fairly well, posting a 1.83 ERA and 21/11 K/BB ratio over 19 2/3 innings for the Red Sox in 2012.
My overall feeling about these moves, especially Lannan and Flores, is that they further signal an end of an era. Things have changed- big time. The whole winning and going to the post season thing is pretty frickin bueno. Some of these other things are sad . Dealing with bandwagon types is annoying. Nats Park is slicker than RFK. But, don't you look back on some of those times with fondness and nostalgia sometimes? We are moving up and moving on. I really hope all three guys end up in a good situation. Thanks for all you did for the Nats. And now, can we please sign Adam and Sean?
Gorzy - drove me crazy. He was great for 3-inning stints when it didn't matter, but seemed to give up a run or two when he was called on in tight, close situations, starting way back in April when he gave up the HR to Kemp. If he drove me crazy, imagine how Davey felt. He got used less and less and less and less.
Lannan - as I hoped, Rizzo did the right thing. There is a limit to how much you can squeeze out of a guy (and as was also pointed out, the veterans on your team are watching). Thanks, good bye and good luck.
Flores - never got over the fact he isn't who he was before the shoulder injury. Yes, some team will pick him up as a backup catcher, but if he doesn't get his act together they won't be happy.
Phil Dunton-
I would withhold judgement on these moves before bringing out the "Lerners are cheap" chant from storage. The Winter Meetings over the next 6 days are almost certain to bring new players to the team, with an expenditure of salary. Cutting the trio last night brings the 40-man roster down to 36, and as nostalgic as we feel for the guys this morning, Mike Rizzo clearly has other players in mind he likes better. The question is whether he can obtain them.
Remember, Lannan was paid $5M to go to Syracuse, because it made expensive sense at the time. He could have been cut during Spring Training to save about $4M of it. So, it isn't that Rizzo isn't willing to make such a move, it's just that he decided it wasn't necessary this year. All the more reason to stay tuned to mlbtraderumors.com this week.
+1/2St.
Lannan....I agree with this move, other players and potential free agents understand that he could have been stashed in AAA , but instead of wasting another season in AAA Rizzo did the right thing and gave him the opportunity to make another big league roster, classy move.
Gorzo....I don't get this one, it seems he has given Burny and Gonzalez some leverage, if they return at all, I can only assume Rizzo has something in the works.
Flores....No problem here, I believe his fate was sealed with Ksuk's performance in September and October
I just can't see the phone ringing off the hook for Lannan. Gesh, he has a 42-52 lifetime record with a 4.01 ERA. He didn't pitch deep into a game often and looked like he was wishing-in every pitch he threw. For one, I'm happy to see him open up a spot.
No, non-tendering Gorzy doesn't give additional "leverage" to Burnett and Gonzo.
Gorzy wasn't used the way Gonzalez and Burnett were. Remember, Davey's original bullpen plan was to have a righty starter and a lefty (long) reliever (and vice-versa). But that fell by the wayside, because you just can't predict when you are going to need your "long" reliever, and Stammen ended up doing most of the stints if he was available. So the bullpen evolved away from that plan.
Well, if you don't have that idea, why would you pay Gorzy millions? IOW, he wasn't being used as a lefty, he was in essence a mop-up guy, and those don't have to be lefties, and those don't have to be paid at Gorzy's salary. If you plan for your starters to go longer, you maybe don't need two long relievers. In fact, is it clear you need that many relievers at all?
One less reliever, one more bench player?
I don't believe you give Lannan away for free. If the Barfs can trade a re-tread like Hanson with his 4.50 ERA for Jordan Waldon than Rizzo should have traded Lannan for value.
Very surprising to me.
Phil Dunton banging the "cheap" card again, you are shameful to no end. THis was clearly about doing the right thing for Lannan and giving him full control over his future.
My prediction is Gonzo will re-sign because he really liked it here and he's nearing the end of his career. Burnett won't be back because he will get three years somewhere else as a setup guy with some closing, not a LOOGY.
Rizzo will re-sign Duke (if he hasn't already) or pick up a lefty who has been non-tendered, or in the Rule 5 or as an add-on to a trade, or Rosenbaum will shine in spring training, whatever. There will only be two lefties in the bullpen.
Rabbit34-
One would think that your assessment of Lannan and his 42-52 record SHOULD be right, but you know very well that some teams are relying on people with worse records than that. On top of that, Lannan's ability to maintain a near or sub-4.00 ERA will appeal to many "second division" teams. Neither of those stats seems as meaningful as they did when I was a kid, but they still hold some weight.
I don't expect John to see the playoffs again soon, if ever. I expect him to get his 30 starts like he used to with the Nats, but with a team that is bad like the Nats used to be.
+1/2St.
I think NatsLady is probably right. Zack Duke got his audition as a reliever in Sept and passed ... he can take Gorzo's slot for probably a fair amount less money, and I think they feel he is closer to the starter role if they need an emergency starter. Then I think they sign Gonzo or similar, and they picked up a couple of minor league contracts as backup (Bramhall and Abad). I think they save the money for other roles (starter or LaRoche).
This shows how far we've come. We're now non-tendering guys that other teams want.
I will always have a warm spot in my heart for Lannan. He tossed a ball over the fence to my dog Sophie, who was wanting to play catch with the guys. I also bought an Expo's game hat as a souvenir that John Lannan wore.
I hope all three land well; good luck guys.
Rabbit34--and that's exactly why Rizzo couldn't trade Lannan. If even the Angels didn't want him--and they are pretty desperate--then he didn't have much value on the trade market.
Lannan and Hanson aren't comparable. Hanson is only 26, and had excellent stuff. Lannan never had "excellent stuff." Hanson should just have the shoulder surgery and come back in mid-2014, and that may be what happens.
Lannan will end up with some team like the Twins, who are in rebuilding mode and pretty much don't care who is in their 2013 rotation. Salary: $2MM if he's lucky.
Rabbit- the Nats are the only mlb team Lannan played for. How would you expect him to have a decent win- loss record ? He was our opening day starter twice, played with little to no run support and a suspect defense. I think Rizzo showed appreciation for his service by allowing him to move on instead of stashing him in Syracuse again. I wish him, his wife and baby Lannan all the best wherever they land. I will always love him for his debut when he hit Howard, then Utley- broke his hand and got ejected. Hilarious hi jinx.
All three of these guys will get nice contracts. Lannan will do best. Lannan's record reflects his years as a starter for a team that was loosing 100 games. Lots of starters around who don't have better numbers than Lannan. A solid lefty will have lots of offers.
Flores is a quality back up and they are always in demand. If he got his stroke back, he's a starter.
Gorzy, as a young lefty, will also be in demand, although Lannan is a much better choice. Lannan has proved he can step up in big games. Gorzy not so much.
Agree with Sonny. No offense to any of the players, but look how far the team has come.
I, too, will retain a soft spot for Lannan, and for Flores. Gorzy - eh. :-) But I wish all of them well and thank them for their contributions.
SonnyG10 said...
This shows how far we've come. We're now non-tendering guys that other teams want.
I will always have a warm spot in my heart for Lannan. He tossed a ball over the fence to my dog Sophie, who was wanting to play catch with the guys. I also bought an Expo's game hat as a souvenir that John Lannan wore.
I hope all three land well; good luck guys.
While we are commiserating with old friends, it is appropriate to point out that Wil Nieves was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks last night, as well. It bears noting, though, that Nieves pulled in $2.6M over his career before last year, so like the others, he has done well for himself.
+1/2St.
(And, yes, thanks. I do know that players likely don't read here and I do know that some of them are on the Tweeter, which I am not. :-))
Who? ;-)
Positively Half St. said...
While we are commiserating with old friends, it is appropriate to point out that Wil Nieves was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks last night, as well. It bears noting, though, that Nieves pulled in $2.6M over his career before last year, so like the others, he has done well for himself.
+1/2St.
December 01, 2012 8:39 AM
swami, there is a stat for looking at pitchers like Lannan who have not been on good teams. It's called FIP (fielding-independent pitching) and measures the pitcher based on his walks, strikeouts, and homeruns--in other words, what he did independent of the fielders behind him.
Lifetime, Lannan has a 4.57 FIP. Here is how you look at FIP.
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.25
Above Average 3.75
Average 4.00
Below Average 4.20
Poor 4.50
Awful 5.00
--------------------------------------------
Bill James predicts that Lannan's 2013 ERA will be 4.58.
He is just not that a good pitcher, and GMs know it.
Peric with your constant calling people morons because of opinions I wish the Nats had non tendered you.
Sentiment aside, you have to think these are good moves for the team. 5M for Lannan to be insurance in SYR is too much; plus I have to think it is the right thing to do for Lannan and I wonder of that played a part in it. Flores, he stayed because we knew what he was but that's the past. Gorzo, while he might be a good guy he always gave the run up when it mattered; for his price something better will be available.
Keeping these three would be a move the old Nats made, not these Nats that are contenders. Let the shopping begin for Rizzo.
Rich Hill? NO!!!!! Livan Hernandez without control.
I really like the idea of re- signing Burnett. He fits in well, seems to be a leader, but mostly I like his versatility. He seems ok in any inning, could close a game, and can get hitters out from both sides. Stammen's job seems pretty secure right now as the only long guy.
I guess Rizzo likes walking the wire w/out a net -- no LHs in the BP, I mean. Duke may well be signed -- though there is no reason I think of for not making an announcement -- but he's not the guy to pitch to Heyward and Freddie Freeman with RISP in the seventh inning. Rizzo must have made a pretty sweet offer to M. Gonzalez already.
I do think a lot of teams are holding back on Burnett and other FA RPs until they figure how much coin they're going to have to shell out for starters. Once Greinke, Sanchez and Lohse are signed more teams will express more than "interest." Again, hopefully, Rizzo has given Burnett a nice no. to take shopping.
I looked at the mlb.com list of Rule 5s -- nobody on that list, especially no LHRP, worth saving a roster spot for.
Don't see having Duke and Rosenbaum on the roster together, unless they agree to job share, come to work everyday, and share a salary. They're the same player.
NatsLady
Lannan is not a very good pitcher, but because of the way it's calculated, FIP does not do justice to pitchers of his kind--low strike out, extreme GB pitchers. He consistently outperformed his FIP--by a larger margin, in fact, than any other pitcher with a comparable # of innings over the last 5 years.
That still leaves him with a mediocre ERA--close to the median among SP over that period.
With him gone, tho, I guess these are the kinds of conversations we won't need to have any longer.
My gut tells me that Rizzo has a trade in the works. Otherwise, you would need to keep Lannan for rotational depth. My guess is that it is not to sign a FA but a trade with Tampa. Tampa needs infield power, and we can give him Espi and Morse. Espi can play SS or 2nd base. Rizzo likes to trade for players under organizational control, so my guess is James Shields and/or Jeremy Hellickson. We don't have enough for Price, and he would be a FA next year I believe. Moore is too valuable. They may be pairing up Hellickson with a close-to-ready prospect. My co-worker thinks this is crazy, but this is my gut feeling.
hh--agree FIP doesn't do justice to extreme GB pitchers, BUT, the problem is as an extreme GB pitcher, Lannan needs a good D behind him, and he's not likely to get one unless he's on a good team. A bit of a vicious cycle.
Rabbit34,
Lannan would make sense for a number of teams. In the NL East, the Mets need pitching and if he wanted to, I am sure the Marlins would like him on their roster. Also, there are the Mariners, Astros, Cubs, who need pitching and what is beginning to look like the former Nats West - Oakland As. Just to name a few.
I hadn't given Gorzelanny much thought this morning, other than to lump him in with the other two. I have to admit that I have been disappointed in him overall, and that he seems eminently replaceable. His WAR has averaged a little below 1.0 over the last three years, if that is a measure. Slightly positive, but we all remember when he hadn't come through in the clutch.
I am not that excited about Duke or Rosenbaum or anyone we have now being replacements. Burnett and/or Gonzalez coming back would be great. Otherwise, I am sure there are options which will play out before February.
+1/2St.
Before the Span deal, I would have been surmised by this, as I thought the Nats could have temporarily kept all three just to see what they could get for them in some package, at low financial risk (release them in ST if nothing came together), and said so earlier this past week.
But the Span deal reminded me of how much Rizzo does completely under the radar. Which means he has to have sorted through all these possibilities with every conceivable plausible trade partner, and found nothing works. (Not worth keeping them individual trades as the throw-in prospect they could get wouldn't be worth it for a team that's come so far, as Sonny and others have said here.)
So this tells me that in light of all that, Rizzo in his researching and quietly exploring possible trades, has his eyes on certain candidates and feels confident that he can get what the Nats need from among them. And under these circumstances, he'd rather be seen as letting these three guys see what they can get for their services unencumbered, as FAs, and demonstrate once again (after the Stras shutdown) that this is a place that good FAsvshould want to come because the Nats management treats players decently and with respect. Don't think the players don't notice.
That's part of the other GMs Rizzo hatred at the Stras shutdown -- they know they(a) don't have the leeway to do that, forego "win now at all costs",(b) will mostly treat players as entirely abusable commodities in the "win now or be gone" culture, and (c) are being shown up by Rizzo as they will never be seen as treating players decently enough to be an attractive place for draftees and FAs to sign on that count.
Not suggesting this is any kind of goo-goo altruism, it's a business but a somewhat different business model than the usual all-shark-all-the-time (no disrespect to the Shark, of course!) approach of most teams.
hh--also, FIP wouldn't slam Lannan so hard if he didn't walk so many people. I'm all for strategic walks, but then you have to strike out the next guy.
If Burnett, in particular, is not re-signed, then the tradeables in the locker room -- Morse, Moore, Bernadina, Lombardozzi, Brown, Perez, Rodriguez, the two rookie catchers -- need to get a pool together on who gets traded the furthest away.
Some of them are going to get traded for the fifth starter but more of them will have to go to fill Burnett's spot.
It will actually be a good year to be a AAA player in the Nats system because there are going to be some 2-for-1 and 3-for-1 deals and major league roster spots for some among Rendon, Walters and Rivero.
Steady Eddie-
Good stuff. I do think, though, that the Marlins' approach is worse than "all-shark-all-the-time". There must be an even less complimentary adjective for them. At least sharks tear things up so they can eat them. The Marlins seem to have evil intent built into their methods.
+1/2St.
NatsLady, doesn't FIP have a built-in bias towards power pitchers? The guy who gets more Ks is going to have a natural advantage going in to FIP, irrespective of everything else.
I see two things with Lannan. He was 42-52 over his career with the Nats, almost exclusively when they were sometimes bad, and often terrible. A career .447 winning percentage on a team that averaged .413 in 2008-2011 (I'm leaving out his "cup of coffee" seasons of 2007 and 2012).
And those were seasons where the infield behind him consisted of the likes of Aaron Boone, Felipe Lopez, Cristian Guzman, Desi (when he was kicking grounders all over the place or launching throws into the seats), and Adam Dunn.
I've long been of the "when in doubt, assume Rizzo and Davey know what they're doing" school. So I assume Rizzo is close to having a significant upgrade locked up, quite possibly someone who's managed to escape almost everyone's radar. But I think if Lannan goes to a team with a decent infield, he'll do well.
Steady Eddie--spot on. Especially in the case of Lannan, whom he could have kept and Lannan would not have had recourse or grievance under the current CBA. The veterans and FAs see a guy who did play for 5+ years in the majors, but just didn't accumulate the service DAYS due to management's use of him. There but for the grace...
Theo T.S.-
Wow, now that is a bold prediction. Do you think Rendon, Walters and/or Rivero will be on the team at the start of the year, or later? I don't see it, but I love that you went out on that limb. I don't doubt there could be a big trade as you say, though.
+1/2St.
I agree with NatsLady that Gorzelanny was primarily a mop-up guy and $4 million would be way too much for that role.
Lannan will find a home on the back end of some team's rotation. He would be an innings-eater that many teams look for.
Yes, FIP does put high value on strikeouts vs. groundouts, that's why it's "FIP" and Lannan overperformed it. Then you get into McCatty "strikeouts are BS" territory.
Don't get me wrong, I'm grateful for what Lannan did, especially in 2012, and he's a nice guy, a good teammate, etc. But he needed a fresh start, and it's best to let him go. I just don't see him going to a contending team.
NL
Agree about the BBs and Lannan relying on his D--but remember, he actually had a pretty crappy D playing behind him for a number of those years.
+1/2 Street --
I don't see all of them making it; maybe none of them. But (A) those aren't the kind of parts that will fetch the pitchers the Nats will need, espec. if Burnett leaves -- any big deal will require players off the 25-man roster; (B) the Nats' best bargaining chips are Morse (whether or not LaRoche is re-signed, but definitely if he is), Bernadina and Lombardozzi; (C) Rendon (obviously), Brown, Walters and Rivero are the minor leaguers most ready to hit at the big league level -- maybe the only ones. Walters fits if Lombardozzi goes; Rivero looks something like a young DeRosa (and he's out of options next year so it's a "use him or lose him" situation). I don't see Rendon in the big leagues, at least at the beginning of the year, unless there's a quasi-regular opening.
I LOVE DAVEY (yes, I know I say that at least once per day):
Charity Event
Thanks, 1/2 st., NL, and NJ. Just seems like Rizzo is a master of the long game and makes a good working combo with the Lerners, who get more confidence in his choices as they see how they work out.
And NJ -- we just made our Auto-Train reservations for the last week of ST so hope to see you there! I'd much prefer to go earlier but our 6th grader's spring break comes when it comes...
I thought they'd tender Lannan, but I was sure he wouldn't be in our rotation this year, so I'm not sad to see him go. Obviously his value as insurance or trade bait did not exceed his cost, even if he was Pattersoned later on. Plus, one would hope that giving him the best shot at catching on somewhere else factored into Rizzo's decision.
I'll take the over on that $2 million prediction NL. He's a left hander with a decent history (and I agree with many posters that FIP is a lousy measure for him). He'll get a decent job somewhere, just not here.
I never disliked Gorzo as much as many folks here did. Sure he was the mop up guy, but someone has to take those for the team. And a 2.88 ERA in 45 appearances (over 20 of which were more than an inning) isn't horrible. Maybe Duke or some random lefty who can't start anymore would be just as good, but if he'll forgo that arbitration raise, I wouldn't be shocked to see him back.
NatsJack --
I agree Rivero and Walters could just as easily be gone next Spring as they could be major league depth. I'm not suggesting they are long-term anything. The Nats have a depth problem, however, that will be further exposed in any big trade. There aren't any more phenom pitchers to give away -- the best ones are all coming off surgery.
And except for Rendon and possibly Skole, all three of the upper-level minor league teams are short on position player prospects.
Really sad to see Lannan and Flores have to go, but the team has moved beyond them -- much like Livan before last season. I have never been the biggest Gorzo fan, but I could see them signing him for a less expensive one-year deal to be the lefty long man. I do hope we re-sign Sean.
Also, there are some intereting names on the non-tender list that could be had for a minor league contract -- Jair Jurgens comes to mind. Rizzo will have a couple of rabbits in his hat this week -- we'll just have to see what position they play.
Great piece on Davey's golf tournament. I wonder how Mickey Morse feels about it.
222 if you follow Mikey Mo on Twitter, you can tell he knows what is going on. I feel bad for him.
I am glad to know that Davey is pushing for Adam to come back and that ALR and Rizzo were at least talking. Totally understand that ALR wants more than 2 years. Me Personally, 2 + a mutual option. and I would give him $12-13M per year. Some of the guys could be traded to restock the farm system. I wonder what Houston has in their pipeline. They need a 1B/DH, Heck they need OF's as well.
222, actually, I wonder how LaRoche and Rizzo feel about it. Davey is pushing awfully hard and HE doesn't have to worry about 2014 or 2015. Maybe Rizzo will use some of the money he just saved to overpay Adam for two years.
I'll bite -- who's Foat?
That's part of the other GMs Rizzo hatred at the Stras shutdown -- they know they(a) don't have the leeway to do that, forego "win now at all costs",(b) will mostly treat players as entirely abusable commodities in the "win now or be gone" culture, and (c) are being shown up by Rizzo as they will never be seen as treating players decently enough to be an attractive place for draftees and FAs to sign on that count.
If this is true, how do you explain that the Reds are moving Aroldis Chapman to the rotation and are already talking innings limit and what strategy they will use in shutting him down?
Michele --
Houston has a AA 1B named Singleton who they were showing off in the AFL; supposed to be a top prospect with the small problem he can't hit LHs. I don't know how serious they are about him but they've been talking about him for a couple of years.
natsfan1a said...
Speaking of Livo, clicked over to MLB Network last night and they were showing a program about the biggest blasts of 2012. Can't recall to whom he was giving up the blast but Livo was one of the pitchers who appeared. Still love ya, Livo.
(Disclaimer: Although I used the direct statement format, I do not have the impression that Livo reads here. I also don't know whether he is on the Tweeter, in which case I could direct a Tweet at him there. I'm not on the Tweeter, though, so it's immaterial. Thanks for reading, and have a nice day. :-))
Theophilus T. S. said...
Rich Hill? NO!!!!! Livan Hernandez without control.
December 01, 2012 8:47 AM
Feel Wood --
I'll bite on Chapman, too. I bet he solves his own inning limits by himself, via injury. I don't see how he can throw 99-101 virtually every pitch without hurting something.
Reply to PositivelyHalfSt....you read between the lines of my post very well. GO NATIONALS!!
Something tells me that Rizzo is ok with Davey's pushing or Rizzo would tell Davey to knock it off. He's still his boss after all.
A mutual option is no better for ALR than 2 years really, unless it requires the Nats to pay way more than a million or 2 to opt out. ALR has no use for his side of the option. He wants that third year.I don't blame ALR for wanting 3 or more years, and I don't blame Rizzo for wanting to hold at 2. The outcome depends on how badly ALR wants that ring because Rizzo isn't budging-- not with Morse as a very good 1B/cleanup fallback and the outfield set. That's the beauty of the Span trade from his point of view.
MicheleS said...
222 if you follow Mikey Mo on Twitter, you can tell he knows what is going on. I feel bad for him.
I am glad to know that Davey is pushing for Adam to come back and that ALR and Rizzo were at least talking. Totally understand that ALR wants more than 2 years. Me Personally, 2 + a mutual option. and I would give him $12-13M per year. Some of the guys could be traded to restock the farm system. I wonder what Houston has in their pipeline. They need a 1B/DH, Heck they need OF's as well.
December 01, 2012 9:49 AM
_________________________________
MicheleS, he has known for a while that he was the odd man out if LaRoche re-signed.
It has to suck and then to read the negative comments, whoa.
1A -- I saw that top 50 blasts show, as well. I think Livan might have appeared more than once. It was cool to see Tyler Moore at #21 and Michael Morse's Red Porch fence denter in the top 10. I do think any home run hit at Coors Field should be shortened by at least 10 feet. I also think they short-mesured Bryce's blast into the Blackberry sign in Toronto -- how could that not have been on the list!
Sonny, thanks for the report. They were down to the last 10 or so by the time I tuned in. I wondered whether Livo might appear more than once, and I also wondered which of our hitters had been included. I must have clicked away before Morse. (I also watched a bit of Intentional Talk, but I don't think it's as funny when Millah is away. :-))
MicheleS, I really enjoyed the Davey charity event link. Thanks.
Of the three non-tendered guys, I think Lannan ends up a starter somewhere, but at nowhere near what we would've had to pay. His salary was a big part of why he wasn't bringing in any viable offers to the Nats. Gorzolany? I felt he was a guy that didn't meet the expectation that the club had when they traded for him. He was so-so for us. Re-sign him, or not? Whatever.
Jesus Flores? A couple of years ago he was one of my favorite players on the team. I feel the injury not only took a toll on him physically, but also took a toll on his fire for the organization. He came across as pretty bitter during his rehab. I honestly think that there's a good chance that out of the three of them Flores will be the one to excel because of the change of scenery. He's a talented ballplayer, and there is always a demand for a good catcher.
I just re-read Rizzo's comments on the Span trade. Barring injury, Span is the center fielder for next year, and probably longer.
If I was the GM, I probably would've adjusted our OF from within, but I trust Mike Rizzo's judgement more then mine.
Like most of you, I don't see a way that ALR and Mikey both stay here, which I as a fan find very sad. Watching both of those guys has brought a lot of joy. Also, for this Grumpy Old Man of Baseball, each of them has given me a certain amount of smugness, as I argued with many about Morse's treatment by Riggleman, and with LaRoche being more suitable for this team then Prince Fielder. And in 2011 I thought Michael's smile and pure joy to be playing baseball was just as heartwarming as any I'd ever seen in ML baseball.When the decision is announced that one of them won't be here, I will shed a tear, but then quickly move on to celebrate the guys we end up with.
Sean Burnett is one I'd miss if he doesn't come back. Just the way he cocked his hat said "Natitude." Plus he got a lot of guys out. GYFNG!
I was thinking that the off season was shaping up to be pretty boring. Now I am on the edge of my seat!!! Rizzo is one crafty guy.
Has anyone heard about a Fan Fest? I am watching Feel's Brother Phil this morning and haven't heard a thing yet. I think I actually miss Clint and Terrance. OMG, someone show some baseball! I am losing it!!!!
Michele, maybe we should organize Nationals Anonymous meeting,as I'm grinding my teeth, having visions of baseball bats, and just generally feeling like a junkie without his fix.
Who says the Nats can't keep LaRoche and Morse? Between injuries, the ages of LaRoche, Werth, and Morse, 10 games with the DH, I see no reason why everybody couldn't get 135-140 games of playing time. This would also give us a great PH every game off of the bench and a great DH should they make the World Series. I would be slightly surprised if this happens, but not shocked in the least.
Adam Kilgore@AdamKilgoreWP
LaRoche and Rizzo had an amicable, open 30-40 minute talk last night. "It's a years thing," LaRoche said. LaRoche wants 3. Nats at 2.
Who says the Nats can't keep LaRoche and Morse?
Could they pay Morse almost $7M a year to be a PH/utility man? Sure. Will they? No.
Two Things,
1)We should all be banging the drum on the FanFest. Andy Feffer was a hero last year with his "Take Back the Park" plan. Now, it should be "Love the Nats Fans" plan and hold FanFest in Jan. COME ON Andy, make it happen.
2) I have a plan for Rizzo and ALR that solves the problem. Resign him for 3 years at $36 Million. Do not worry about the third year. As you may be able to move him to the O's in the third year and his family would be able to stay in the area.
Just innovative solution to the 3rd year problem. Not likely but a Lefty Power hitter in Camden Yards can do quite well with that short right porch.
MicheleS
Thanks for the update. I do think ALR will get 3 years somewhere. I wonder if he and the Nats would both be willing to compromise on 2 yrs plus a vesting option for a 3d year?
what the nats should do is front load a alr contract so that he makes 13 mill for the first two years, and then 4 for the third year with incentives based on performance
FeelWood@ 9:51 am - I didn't say ALL GMs hated Rizzo, or that Rizzo was unique -- just exceptional. And the ones who do (looking at you, Frank Wren) make noise that gets amplified by the "look at me -- PLEASE!" ex-player wannabee talking heads.
Also, what Rizzo is doing is not in sync with the usual MLB management culture.
140 games is not a utility player and he is already under contract. Unless Morse, et al. can be used to get another top tier starter like Price or maybe Shields, he stays in Washington. They are not going to get rid of him for a LH reliever and they have no other pressing needs. He makes them better this year, and that is what is most important.
Water
The ability to trade him before or during the 3d year assumes that he's still healthy and productive. Maybe he will be, but that's by no means assured.
If David Price is rumored to be available "for the right price" (ESPN's Buster Olney), would a package of Rendon, Goodwin and Morse do it?
What will it take to get Price,
Two controllable MLB players and two top prospects?
Would Morse, Espy, Skole & Moore/Pitcher do it?
Rendon & Morse for Price?
It seems in someway that signing Greinke is the better solution. No loss of players.
hex-a-dex
Your math ain't working. If Werth and ALR each play 130 games, that leaves 64 games, and you're assuming Morse does and can take every one of them (as opposed to Lombo, Bernie, etc., and/or Werth and ALR both being out for the same game). Add 9-10 for Morse to DH interleague in AL parks, and that's 74.
If ALR is re-signed (which I think won't happen), Morse is gone.
Did Rizzo win 4 World Series that I am not aware of...what year is it...where am I??? LOL!!! Exceptional??? Based on what??? Replace Harper and Strasburg with Jameson Taillon and Dustin Ackley and then tell me how exceptional the job he has done is...not saying he isn't a good GM, but the adoration is ridiculous. Jim Bowden put together more of this team than Rizzo did.
This arbitration process has come back to bite John Lannan and Gorzo in the butt. GMs are so busy blowing huge bucks on big name free agents who usually end up being big busts (think Werth) that there is no money left to pay the average major league ball players. Very sad. Lannan also may be paying the price for all the money Rizzo blew on Wang.
Hiram Hover...15 games off for Span(which will probably be more) and 15 games off for Harper and suddenly that number is up to 104. Keeping him also gives you trade bait for getting that SP (if they don't get him now)...the injury histories on this team...especially Werth, Morse, Span and LaRoche are not good. Keeping Morse makes too much sense not to consider. What is $7 million to a team trying to win a World Series. Yunesky Maya and Chien Ming Wang made more money.
995, as far as I know JB has never done any scouting work. He may have agreed to pick them but we all know Rizzo's scouting talents. I am not giving him all the credit for JZ or Espinosa but he surely deserves it more than JB.
That's going to one hell of a game, where Werth, Harper and Span are all out, and Morse is filling in for all three of them. It will certainly give new meaning to the description of Morse as "defensively challenged."
Btw - Maya and Wang weren't trade-able. Morse is.
Lannan isn't paying the price for Wang or anybody else. He's paying the price for not being a very good pitcher. He got to $5MM/year via arbitration; arbitration has been very good to him.
For those of you that still feel that Jayson Werth is a "big bust," I'd doubt you would hear Rizzo,the Lerners, or Davey Johnson second your opinion.
Nats Jack re: Foat --
Esoteric but very interesting. Of course, as a college guy in the GCL, he'll become one of those "too old to be a real prospect" guys. I won't care, if he has a ten-year career and two All-Star appearances.
No way either ALR or Morse is sitting on the bench on Opening Day. And this is Morse's contract year, so to the extent he has any trade value, it's right now. At the deadline, he's just a rental and we'll get a double A utility infielder at best. And we're going to have to give up a lot more than Morse for a front line starter. I for one would like to see what we have in Rendon before trading him. But pretty much anyone other than him, Zim, Harper, Znn, Gio, Stras, and Desi ought to be available to be packaged with Morse if we're talking about Price or King Felix. And yes, that includes Det (though I'm hesitant on him), Ramos, and Espi.
Personally, I'd rather resolve the Morse/ALR choice, keep the rest of our lineup as is, and sign Lohse to a short term deal or shell out some of the Lerner's money for Greinke or Sanchez.
Sse 222, I'm pretty much with your last paragraph at 12:35.
Hiram and AlphabetSoup --
Have either of you ever read "The Red-Headed Outfield," by Zane Grey? Both of you could use a good laugh.
And to the poster that should have bought a vowel,( and a couple of syllables), what makes you think Bryce Harper will sit out 15 games?
Seamhead-Not saying he would have to sit 15 games, but having Morse gives you that luxury. As hard as he plays, he is going to need a day off here and there...the point is, it will be possible for all to have plenty of playing time even if LaRoche and Morse come back. For one year, this would work fine. The chances that LaRoche, Span, Harper, Werth or Morse go down with a fairly significant injury has got to be at least 50/50. Did the NY Giants keep too many Defensive Ends last year? They have about 6 of them that could start on any other team in football.
Would it be senseless, to give ALR a four year deal, front-loaded to the extent that he would make attractive trade bait, after two years? Would Adam go for that? He gets the money, and can play into his late-mid thirties, and we can move him for a much-needed prospect, after two years.... Give him refusal on a handful of teams, so he knows he won't languish the last two years in Houston or Miami.... Just a thought...maybe a stupid one?
I'd like to see John pitch in front of his home-town crowds - for the Mets or, better yet, because I don't want the home town team to have to eat crow served by a motivated Lannan, inducing 6 gidp's a game, the Yankees, whom he shut out his first time pitching there. He was money when given the opportunity this year. Jesus, may you land with a nice contract with one of the California MLB teams, maybe LA, SF or Oakland, so that you can enjoy the climate and the food. And Gorzy, who, when asked why you switched to batting right said, "I just thought, screw it. I play golf and hockey right handed. So I tried it, and it worked out." I hope he gets a nice contract with one of the Chicago teams, playing in front of his home town crowd. His attitude in accepting the switch from starter to the 'pen was exemplary.
Adam Berry @adamdberry
Adam LaRoche, in Orlando: "I've made it as clear as I can that I want to come back. ... I'm not looking for a record deal by any means." ...
22m Adam Berry @adamdberry
More LaRoche: "Let's get something fair and let's go. I want to finish up in D.C." He wants a three-year deal. #Nats want him for two years.
If I were the Boss:
Bring ALR, Burnett, and MGonz all back, go get Grienke, and sell Mikey to the highest bidder, for young prospects. Best roster in baseball, for the next three years, and as Rendon, Skole, and Goodwin (and some baby arms) rise, there'll bea couple of starters to sell (high) to replenish the farm...
So Let It Be Written.....
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31198/value-to-be-found-in-non-tendered-players
Lannan and Flores not evaluated in this post.
Random letter guy -- Good for you for sticking up for your argument. I suppose it's not outrageous to think that Morse could start 125 games without being one of our starting 8. Last year, Bernadina started 49 games and had 261 PAs, Moore 35/171, DeRosa 16/101 and Nady 24/109. That's a total of 124 starts between them. Of course, last year we had pretty serious injuries to Morse and Werth.
But it's not going to happen. Leaving aside Morse's outsized salary for a bench player, Davey is going to want to use Bernadina and Moore in the field sometimes. For another, if everyone stays reasonably healthy, he'd have to rest Harper, LaRoche, or Werth more than he'll want to.
No doubt though, Morse would be the most imposing PH/DH in the league.
LaRoche doesn't want to be 35 and looking for another year or two as DH. He wants to retire after his age 36 season.
I am with Unkyd on his summary, though I don't think we will get Burnett.
Does anyone know how was our D when morse was in the first base? I feel like LaRoche will regrees next year, and Morse in a contract year, playing first could hit 40 HR! I would take that over adam D
Can you imagine Morse ending up in Citizen's bank or Coor's????his home run totals would be insane.
And with all the money we are saving, + not signing LaRoche, we could land Greinke in a 5/100 or even 5/120
The only pitchers worth trading Morse for right now are King Felix and David Price. You can find differing degrees of value for all other SP options via free agency and you don't have to give up a player(or more). Greinke, Sanchez, Haren, Lohse, etc. I just don't see the Nats getting enough value for him (if LaRoche signs) in a trade, and he is in a contract year (probably his last) so like I said, I see no reason to offer him up for prospects who will be blocked at every position for the foreseeable future. 25 HR and 85 RBI are plenty realistic even in 130 games.
NatsLady --
LaRoche doesn't want to retire at 36. No player making $10+MM wants to retire at 36 or any other age. They want the money until the string runs out. Exh. A: P. Rodriguez.
What LaRoche wants is to not have to go begging for one one-year contract after another and keep United Van Lines on a retainer. He wants to be in one place long enuf for his kids to go through middle school (or whatever school they're in). Not an unreasonable position. If he were coming off a 100-RBI year with almost any other team they'd be happy to give him the three years, or more. E.g., if Milwaukee wasn't trying to find a reason to pay Corey Hart, they'd offer three years happily. There are a lot of 35-36 year old 1Bs. The Nats happen to be so situated that more than two years doesn't fit w/ the secret plan.
The idea of front-loading the deal appeals to me: offer 2 years at $25MM, plus a mutual option for, say, $8-9MM in the third year. If they want him back, they have to make him feel like part of the furniture.
NatJack --
I hear you, Rizzo and Johnson loud and clear. Insofar as the Span deal dictates dealing Morse, and they are not committed to Span beyond two years, it does in a sense make it possible to give LaRoche three years. But the confluence of Moore (less so), Rendon, Zimmerman and Skole makes a third guaranteed year a bad deal. I just don't see the Nats bending -- much. Hence some sort of mutual option, and a flexible no-trade provision, that will give the Nats the ability to free themselves once holding on to LaRoche has become counter-productive. (I seem to remember reading that the mutual option was the final carrot that led LaRoche into the barn back in 2011, so it might work again.)
He said he wants to "finish up in DC." To me that means make enough money to set up his kids and grandkids for life and then retire so he can spend time with them. I love Rizzo, but you got a bird in hand here, which Rendon ain't. I've said all along, front-load the first 2 years, then give him some money for the 3rd year that won't make it unreasonable to trade him in July 2015 if necessary. RZ could need more shoulder surgery, tear his abs, whatever, and it's moot, they'll find a place for Rendon. Rizzo needs to take care of 2013 and 2014 before he worries bout 2015.
You trade Morse because he will be gone in FA in 2014 anyway. Trade him to some team that needs offense and a 1B like the O's.
Comment from a Twins blogger (not a GM, of course, but I've read his stuff.)
Seth Stohs @SethTweets
sure, at a mil or two. "@SheaMcGinnity: @SethTweets do you like Lannan as an option?"
NatsJack in Florida said...
Do people not listen to Rizzo or Davey? From day 1 of the off season the #1 priority verbalized in print, on radio and in TV interviews is "we have to sign Adam LaRoche".
Yet Rizzo still went out and traded for Span, on the same day that he told 106.7 that getting a CF/leadoff batter was his #1 priority. Look, before that trade there was a chance LaRoche would be back. Now there is absolutely no way he'll be back. Rizzo knows it, Davey knows it, LaRoche knows it, Morse knows it, Bob Dole knows it, you know it, I know it, and the American people know it. LaRoche had the chance to give the hometown discount and sign for two years, and he chose not to. Now, there are no hard feelings on either side and that is what this whole "bring a pen to Davey's golf tournament" episode is about. By maintaining publicly that there is a chance LaRoche might still take the two year deal from the Nats, it keeps other interested teams from low-balling him and guarantees he'll get at least three years from someone. Also, this weekend provides LaRoche and probably Drake too with an opportunity to say thanks and goodbye to Rizzo, Johnson, Harper et al. There was no opportunity for closure after game 5, now there is.
NJ, who are you ranting at and why? Are you personally offended by people who see things differently than you do? If so, lighten up. If not, lighten up.
I think Feel is reading this right (and kudos on the Dan Akroyd impersonation). Rizzo, with Davey's help, is taking one last shot at trying to get ALR to accept two years; he's not budging from the offer we all expected him to make. But ALR isn't budging either. As NL said, he doesn't want to be 35 and looking for another short term deal. Someone will offer him 3, you know they will. So much for Rizzo's #1 priority.
We'll be fine with Morse at 1B and the $30 million they might have paid to ALR being available to sign a nice free agent pitcher.
NatsJack in Florida said...Do people not listen to Rizzo or Davey? From day 1 of the off season the #1 priority verbalized in print, on radio and in TV interviews is "we have to sign Adam LaRoche".
And Rizzo always tells everyone exactly what he's planning to do...
I'm with Feel Wood on this one. They haven't shut the door on ALR, and I think there's enough good feeling on both sides that they don't want to slam it in his face. But the longer this drags on, the less likely it is to happen.
As to Morse - if you want a comp for what he might do this year as a part-time player with ALR at first, look at what he did in 2010, with Dunn at 1B - ~300 PA, 15 HR, .289/.352/.519, 1.1 WAR. At $400K, that was a steal; at $6.75M, not so much--esp with Tyler Moore in the wings, making league minimum.
Re: MichelleS's post from yesterday on Rizzo & the CIA. Rizzo is better at keeping secrets than the CIA Director: unfortunately we know exactly what the CIA Director has been up to. Now, maybe Mr. Rizzo would make a better director, but I doubt most people on this blog would trade Nationals' security for national security. But I could be wrong.
ArVAFan
And it 's not even about money. It's about the future and not being tied to aging veteran contracts and being able to bring up new guys and extend others. Rizzo just seems creative enough to figure this out.
NatsJack in Florida said...
I hear you Feel Wood but it's something both Davey and Rizzo (and LaRoche) want.
If it is in fact only the difference of a 2 or 3 year contract, it'll get done.
The only way it will get done now, after Span, is two years. Rizzo might have gone for three before the trade, but not any more. The ball is entirely in ALR's court now. If he really wants three years, it will be out there for him somewhere and he'll take it.
Adam Dunn really wanted to stay in DC, but only for four years. Rizzo and especially Kasten really wanted Dunn in DC, but only for three years. How'd that one turn out?
And get ready for lather, rinse and repeat on this next year with Morse.
I think Feel is reading this right (and kudos on the Dan Akroyd impersonation).
I thought I was doing Norm MacDonald.
Do people not listen to Rizzo or Davey? From day 1 of the off season the #1 priority verbalized in print, on radio and in TV interviews is "we have to sign Adam LaRoche".
How hard is that to understand?
I'm not sensitive, and I sure didn't take it personally, but that's a rant. That's saying anyone who thinks that ALR won't ultimately sign is an idiot (or as peric might say, doesn't know anything about baseball) because Davey and Rizzo have said they want him to sign. I want him to sign too, but the problem is, they can't force him take 2 years. And it sure looks like they're not offering 3 years.
You're sure it will ultimately get worked out, so who's going to cave? Do you know? I sure don't. And don't say they'll compromise on two years, frontloaded, with a mutual option or some other dressed up two year deal because that's no better than two years from ALR's point of view, and he's not taking it.
You seem sure someone is going to cave, and there are several people here, myself included, who think the most likely option is no one caves and he walks. That's the discussion in a nutshell. I'm finding it interesting.
NatsJack is right on the money on this one. They won 98 games last year...no need to get too cute with the roster. I think Rizzo is waiting to see if ALR gets an offer for more than 2 years...then he will have to make a decision. I do think he will get the chance to match any other team's offer. The only other teams that seem to make sense for LaRoche and said team are the Orioles and Rays. He wants to be on a winner...that eliminates at least 9 teams (Mariners, Astros, Marlins, Mets, Indians, Cubs-have Anthony Rizzo anyways, probably Boston, probably Minnesota, and probably Pittsburgh)...teams who don't need 1B (Reds, Tigers, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Braves, Giants, White Sox, Royals, Blue Jays, Angels, Rockies, Cardinals. Arizona, Padres. That leaves the following teams:
Orioles-most likely ... but didn't want him 2 years ago
Rays-2nd most likely
Rangers-I would think they would spend $ on pitching
Brewers-Doubt he wants to go there...he knows Reds and Cards are here to stay.
A's-Doubt they would spend the $ for him
And on the incredibly rare chance that ALR does take Rizzo's two year offer, disabuse yourself of any notion of packaging Morse in trade for a stud pitcher. That trade would never happen. The only kind of team that would trade for a slugger in his walk year is one that's going for it all in 2013. And if that team has a stud pitcher, they're not trading him. If Rizzo has to trade Morse because ALR is coming back, it will be for prospects somewhere far away from the NL East, like he did with Willingham.
It's baseball 101 with a twist.
The Nats need a second left handed bat. They need a solid defensive 1st baseman. They demand a solid clubhouse guy.
Adam LaRoche fills that bill on all accounts.
Rolling Stones 101 says you can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you just might find you get what you need. Now that they have Span, they don't absolutely need that left handed bat any more. They have first base options that are good enough defensively. And they have a clubhouse full of solid guys already. So if ALR falls into their lap for two years, they'll take him. But there's no need to try any harder than that.
As for LaRoche, if staying with the Nats was his top priority and a two year deal would get it done, it would have been done already.
Can someone please clarify something for me?
The salary issues down the road a few years with SS, JZnn, Desi etc have to do with the Luxury tax, right? Not whether the Lerner's can meet their payroll.
Yet people keep referring to a surge in ticket sales next year and the new cable deal, if they can ever pry it out of Angelos' hands, etc...and how these revenue sources will help the Nats' salary issues. Seems like two different things to me. The former being a hard and fast limit with penalties if you surpass it and the latter being the desire to run a smart business where you can put a good product on the field and still make a profit.
What exactly is the line the Nats don't want to cross financially w/o penalties? And if it is a luxury tax, what is that figure?
What I want to say is: heck pay Sean what he's worth on the open market--what is that 3/$15 or so? And re-sign Mike G--another known commodity. Give Adam his 3rd year before ill feeling sets in, and trade Morse for young pitching. Then pay the piper for one of the available FA pitchers and go for it these next three years with these guys you already know are good clubhouse guys. Then bring Rendon up in September for a shot in the arm.
I thought I was doing Norm MacDonald.
Depends on what era you were channelling I guess. Aykroyd did Dole in '88 when he complained in a mock debate about George HW Bush lying.
Feel Wood-I think you are missing the point entirely. This is a negotiation...a game of chicken. Rizzo probably said to ALR if you can find a better deal, bring it to me...if not, I am only giving you 2 years. If somebody offers him 3, Rizzo probably matches it. 4 years and I agree he is gone. I just don't see a huge market for ALR at 3-4 years at $12-13 million a year. Maybe I am wrong, but I would be shocked if he isn't back. He has made $36 million in his career and even with a 2 year deal would bring that up to $60 million. He is hardly hurting for money. He is just trying to get more out of Rizzo...but I doubt he leaves.
Greinke is nowhere near as good as Price. I would give up Espi, Rendon, and Morse for Price, easily, instead of over-paying for Greinke. It's unlikely that the Ray's would do this deal, though. They have Longoria at 3rd, and Espi strikes out too much. Morse, maybe, but he is a FA next year as someone pointed out. Price, for that matter, is a free agent in a year or two, so we would have to eat into our Bryce and Strauss savings plan. James Shields or Hellickson are the more likely targets. Moore would have me jumping for joy, but he's probably even more valuable from the Ray's perspective than Price.
Section 222 said...
I thought I was doing Norm MacDonald.
Depends on what era you were channelling I guess. Aykroyd did Dole in '88 when he complained in a mock debate about George HW Bush lying.
You may be right. I was probably thinking of Norm MacDonald doing Bob Dole in an episode of MTV's Real World, one of the best SNL skits ever.
Also, if the Nats give ALR a third year on his contract, I can almost assure you they are contemplating a blockbuster trade. Paying ALR an additional year is cheaper than paying Greinke through the FA market. With Lannan out of the picture, we'll know pretty soon.
Rizzo still negotiating with Gorzy.
On that we can agree NJ. And the great thing is that along the way there are milestones (like last night's non-tender deadline) where some of the questions we've been discussing (like Lannan's future) are resolved, so we can move on to other topics. Now we have the winter meetings and the Rule 5 draft and the exchange of arbitration figures exchanged (which will involve several of our key players like Desi and JZnn). Before you know it, pitchers and catchers will report.
Kilgore's reporting of the meeting between ALR and Rizzo sure makes it sound like ALR's re-signing is more likely than not. He really doesn't want to play for a losing team.
This move finally puts in to motion the long debated "what is John Lannan worth" discussion. This might be overly pessimistic of me but I think he's getting a minor league deal... Maybe a 1 year 2mm deal from somebody tops.
I want the Nationals to go-for-broke in 2013 for a lot of reasons but mainly because I'm 56-years-old and I don't know if I'll be around in 2014 or beyond.
One more super-ace will make this a hard to beat team. Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, David Price & Ross Detwiler is pretty much a unhittable rotation.
So I'd trade .....
Anthony Rendon, Michael Morse, Danny Espinosa and a Matt Skole type of prospect, even a Roger Bernadina type too, and see if the Rays would give up David Price.
The Nationals have their long-term players ensconced at every position except first (and maybe there too if Tyler Moore becomes the guy).
They won't need a position prospect for three or four years and if they get someone like Price, the same applies for the rotation.
That would give the team 3-4 years to restock the minors through quality drafting and signing foreign players.
But mostly, I don't want to die before they win the World Series.
Farid @ Idaho
Good stuff on MLBTR:
•Adam LaRoche met with General Manager Mike Rizzo and had an open discussion about where each side stands, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. “To be honest, it’s a years thing now,” LaRoche said. “I think they’re really wanting to stick to two years. I’m trying to talk them into lengthening that. To be honest, probably just one year. I’m not looking for four or five. I understand I’m 33 years old. The first baseman requested the meeting to make sure that nothing got lost in translation between the front office and his representation at SFX.
•Don’t be surprised if second baseman Danny Espinosa is the subject of trade discussions at the winter meetings, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The 25-year-old is likely to draw interest from teams who need a middle infielder and the Nats could use Steve Lombardozzi to replace Espinosa at second in the short-term. Top prospect Anthony Rendon eventually could take the reins at the position if he does not replace Ryan Zimmerman at third.
•Rizzo gave his rationale about the thought process in this week's non-tender decisions, Kilgore writes. The club non-tendered left-hander John Lannan, catcher Jesus Flores, and reliever Tom Gorzelanny.
It sure did! Love it!
NatsJack in Florida:
Loved your post on age, thanks.
So I write my post and then watch Back to the Future, one of my favorite movies ever.
I was around 30 or so when I saw it for the first time. So I'm watching and I noticed that in the beginning of the 2nd movie, the "current date" on Dr. Brown's flux capacitor readout is October 21 2015."
Man, when I watched that the first time, that date was so far out there, 30 years in the future.
And now, it's in just a couple of years.
Sheesh .....
My first Senators memory: Don Lock hitting a homer against a young Mel Strottlemeyer around '64 or so. I got the tickets to DC Stadium from WTTG for having a "Carnival for Muscular Dystrophy" and sending them the $4.00 that I earned.
Ah, Bill Gormley, where are you when I need you?
Farid @ Idaho
In reading Kilgore's piece about the LaRoche-Rizzo meeting, both come across as refreshingly honest and candid.
I loved Harper's line at Davey's golf tourney. If the Nats can't keep Adam LaRoche, they still want to keep his son, Drake.
Kilgore's reporting of the meeting between ALR and Rizzo sure makes it sound like ALR's re-signing is more likely than not.
Sounds to me more like LaRoche wants to buy a house in the 'burbs, settle down and have kids while Rizzo wants to keep the condo downtown, go out with the guys and perhaps get a little on the side every now and then. Can this marriage be saved?
Drew- actually, Drake could figure into this. How many clubhouses would make him so at home ? Seems like the kid is allowed to be around pretty much all the time and spends time hanging out with Bryce. Maybe some other places don't allow that kind of access or aren't as kid- friendly. The Nats seem like a pretty clean, tame bunch. At this point, how much money do you need? His family seems pretty important to him.
baseballswami said...
Drew- actually, Drake could figure into this. How many clubhouses would make him so at home ? Seems like the kid is allowed to be around pretty much all the time and spends time hanging out with Bryce. Maybe some other places don't allow that kind of access or aren't as kid- friendly.
Boys of a certain age whose fathers are players hang out in MLB clubhouses all the time. Werth did it, LaRoche himself did it, Griffey Jr. did it, Dusty Baker's kid did it, Cal did it, the list goes on and on. It's a clubhouse, not a strip club or a bar or other such place where men congregate and bringing kids wouldn't be appropriate.
At this point, how much money do you need? His family seems pretty important to him.
It's not the money with LaRoche, it's the years. He's not getting a deal from Rizzo unless he comes down to two years. That's pretty clear.
Hi
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