 |
US Presswire file photo Ian Desmond and the Nats face Dan Uggla and the Braves in a big weekend series. |
But all along, there's been an even bigger series on the horizon, one that opens tonight in Atlanta when the Nationals face a Braves club that has spent the last two weeks swapping spots with them atop the division.
Even Davey Johnson recognized this when he insisted Ryan Zimmerman sit out Tuesday's game at Citizens Bank Park with a sore shoulder.
"We can lose this battle, but I need you for three games in Atlanta," the manager told his star third baseman. "They're the ones on top, and we need to put our best foot forward down there."
So buckle up for should be an intriguing weekend of baseball in the deep South, the first meeting this season between Nationals and Braves clubs that should each be in the thick of the division race all summer.
Washington enters the series feeling good about itself after taking care of business in Philly. Atlanta, on the other hand, is reeling from a four-game sweep in Cincinnati.
There were some extenuating circumstances. Catcher Brian McCann missed three games with flu-like symptoms. Third baseman Chipper Jones, meanwhile, hasn't started a game in a week due to a badly bruised calf. How important is Jones (in his final season) to the Braves' fortunes? They're now 19-5 when he starts, 7-15 when he sits.
Put that all together, and the Nationals enter the weekend holding a slim, one-game lead in the division. They will, however, have to face Atlanta's best during this series.
Ace Tim Hudson starts tonight's series opener against Ross Detwiler; Hudson is merely 13-3 with a 2.09 ERA in his career against the Nationals.
The matchup does tilt back in Washington's favor tomorrow when Stephen Strasburg goes for his fifth win against left-hander Mike Minor and his 6.96 ERA.
And that sets up a fantastic showdown for Sunday night's nationally televised finale: Gio Gonzalez (6-1, 1.98) vs. Brandon Beachy (5-1, 1.77).
Is this a make-or-break weekend for the Nationals? No. The NL East won't be decided over the next three games.
But this will serve as yet another key test for the upstarts of the division, who must again prove it's ready to overtake yet another traditional powerhouse.
142 comments:
GAME DAY!!!! Thankfully no boredom today.
Det had better step up tonight or that walk from the mound back to the dugout could be your last for awhile.
Who would have thought 3 months ago that the Atlanta series would have the Nats in 1st place and Atlanta nipping at their heels.
No pressure, Det. But this is a career game for you, given the circumstances. Outduel Hudson -- and set up the favorable matchups Saturday and Sunday -- and how could you lose your place in the rotation?
You've got the stuff.
Can you be tough
Enough?
Det needs to get his game day Natitude on.
and the bats need to find a way to score on Hudson. I do not want to hear that horrible tomahawk chop tonight!
My motto "win every series and you will love the results."
Det can get us off to a great start. I would say the Braves are favorite fairly easily going in, but we play the games for a reason.
Lets win this series.
Another Fan on the Post Staff I had no idea there was more than one politico that was a Nats Fan.
If there are 80 starting pitchers in the NL (and there have been more) The Nats sit well in ERA as they have the 4th, 8th 11th, 30th and 37th pitchers. All in the top half.
MicheleS - thanks for posting that link - I was going to recommend that article to everyone - it's good - you should read it! This weekend could be interesting. Det pitches much better when he has his Natitude going on.So do you think we will see Det for 5 and then Wang for 4? I feel like something shifted in baseball last post-season. Things were absolutely unpredictable and exciting - that seems to have kept going; where anything at all can and probably will happen. It's tough on the nerves but you can't look away.
FWIW:
Jonathan Mayo has put up a top-20 mock for the MLB draft that starts June 4. He thinks the Nats might look for a college pitcher at No. 16 and suggests a Duke hurler named Marcus Stroman.
JaneB.. this is for you. Apparantly Players get bored on off days too.
Ian was answering fan questions on twitter late last night. I should have been looking at that instead of having the CMW/Det Debate.. ;-)
Ian's Twitter Account
MicheleS, thanks for all of the great links!
I don't know about a favorable matchup on Sunday. Beachy is just as good as Gio, maybe better. But NCNatsie is right that this would be a GREAT win to get. It would really be a luxury to get this one. My favorite kind of game to watch: a loss is OK with Stras and Gio set to pitch the rest of the series, but a win would be cause for celebration.
bowdenball, Beachy has been one of the best pitchers this year and the hope is that Gio can dominate even more vs the Braves lefty dominated lineup.
Beachy is a RH pitcher and actually dominates LH batters. No HRs plus a .147 BA vs. LH batters.
So I don't know if you all saw the link within the WaPo article, but here it is just shows how far we have come
Krauthammer
Some outsider's thoughts on Ian/Lombo/Espi. Can't agree with their solution and you know Grandpa I-Don't-Audition-Players Davey won't do it.
washington-nationals-steve-lombardozzi-is-a-good-problem-to-have
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1194308-washington-nationals-steve-lombardozzi-is-a-good-problem-to-have
Nice recognition for Desi. Offseaon idea: trade him? That option gets an "F" grade!
I know all about Beachy, Gonat. He's a Cy Young candidate this year for sure. That's why I said I didn't know that the matchup was favorable, as a previous poster had said. But what a great pitching matchup for the Sunday night showcase game.
I just want a series win, However we get it. I would also like a win on Sunday night (for that elusive sweep)
In the "looking for silver lining" department -- it appears to me that all of the Nats starters will be going with one extra day of rest, while the Braves' guys are not, as today will be the fifteenth consecutive game they are playing, with no days rest.
The Nats had 16 games in a row thru Wednesday, before yesterday's day off.
Re Mayo's mock draft:
I'm not familiar with Stroman, but it looks like the Nats have had their eyes on him for a long time. They drafted him in 2009 as a high school shortstop.
Not a streaky team. Steady as she goes.
April 14-8
May (so far) 12-10
Days in first place - 47 (including off-days)
Most games over .500 - 10 (on April 25)
Most games under .500 - never (!)
Longest winning streak - 5
Longest losing streak - 5
Times shutout by opponent - 1
Times opponent shutout - 3
Just for internal fortification . . .
Pitching stats:
Nats: 1st in ERA, 1st in WHIP, 1st in K's, 5th in fewest walks (!), youngest pitching staff.
(5th fewest errors -- they'd be first if it weren't for Bryce's three).
Atlanta's ERA is a bit more than one full run higher than the Nats. Let's get some runs, guys!
Hoping Davey plays these games as intensely as a Playoff series.
Hoping Davey's toe is better!
Wonk
Thanks for the pitching #s. ATL's is obviously pretty strong too. Among their starters, Jair Jurrgens was stinking the joint up back when Hudson was on the DL, and ATL's BP ERA is 3.65, compared to the Nats 3.36.
At the plate, the Braves have a clear edge--they're second best in the NL in runs scored per game, and more than a full run ahead of the Nats (4.9 vs. 3.7).
The slash lines are:
Nats: .243/.314/.391, 91 wRC+
ATL: .259/.325/.405, 101 wRC+
That's equalized to some degree if Chipper is sitting--he's their second hottest batter, behind Prado.
Braves, meh... its the fish that have been handing us our lunch for years. Not to downplay the series but to me that will be a bigger series even in light of the standings.
Venters blew up again. The Braves bullpen isn't as good as last year but you still beat the Braves by scoring on their starters.
Gonat said...
Who would have thought 3 months ago that the Atlanta series would have the Nats in 1st place and Atlanta nipping at their heels.
Answer: MLB and ESPN, after all they picked this Sunday's game for their national TV game BEFORE the season started. And don't say that it's random, because before this season the last time the Nationals were in the Sunday night game was opening night of Nationals Park.
This is big for Det, but it does not make or break his career. I favor putting Det in the pen and starting Wang to see if he can recover his form. Det will be a starter for the Nats for years to come, but we need Wang to have a great year, given what has been invested in him by the Nats. If they do shut down Stras in September, we are going to need another starter anyway, and I think it would be easier to put Det in the rotation than to wait and try to put Wang in there after a very long spell in the pen.
@MichelleS -- Thanks for the Krauthammer link. I don't mind saying that his and George Will's love for baseball and the Nats makes me dislike them just a little less.
One of the really fun things about this season is the enjoyment that comes from watching the bandwagon slowly fill up, and national writers take note of what this team is doing. And even better is the knowledge that with the young pitching staff we have, this is no one year fluke.
Hey, how about some love for my new Google Blogger picture? I risked life and limb to get it. (Not really, maybe just risked some poison ivy.)
Hoping that The Face also starts to put his legs, arms, and the rest of his body into play. And forget the JWerth '11 imitation of looking at all those called 3rd K's.
We need his bat, as ALR starts to regress to his lifetime mean.
@JamesFan -- I doubt that it will be a problem moving Wang from the pen to the rotation. But making good use of him in the pen is going to be really difficult. For that reason, I agree with you that he should replace Det in the rotation, regardless of what happens tonight. Det will get his starts (at worst, after Stras hits his innings limit). And he can be a really valuable long man, LOOGY, or even part of the closer committee. It just seems like a much better use of the talent we have.
I know I risk the wrath of peric by taking this position, but I really believe Wang has earned a shot at starting again given all he's been through. Now that doesn't mean they stick with him no matter what he does. But if he's solid as a starter, we haven't lost anything by making this change, and may have gained alot, if only by showing his trade value once that June deadline passes.
GYFNG
This start doesn't make or break Detwiler; at the worst he starts later in the year for us and has a spot next year.
"That's equalized to some degree if Chipper is sitting--he's their second hottest batter, behind Prado. "
A friend of mine said that he heard an ESPN ad for Sunday's game, which was highlighting something like:
"The 19 year old meets the 19-year veteran"
Kewl.
And, hey!, Sec222, nice pic! (And, umm, err, trying to stay away from politics here, just wanted to agree with you on the other comment ;-)
Thanks for the Krauthammer link. I don't mind saying that his and George Will's love for baseball and the Nats makes me dislike them just a little less.
Before the first game of the Natitude Park series, I was already inside the park waiting for my friend to arrive. I was hanging near the centerfield gate so that when he showed up I could hand him his ticket through the fence. Spying the Lexus display on the CF Plaza, I decided to sit down on the edge of the platform the car was sitting on. A few feet to my left (a position he'd never have in real life) sat George F. Will, dressed in his trademark button-down shirt and khakis, but absent the bow tie. He had a scowl on his face as he talked on his cell phone to someone.
After I'd been sitting there a few minutes minding my own business, an usher came up to me and told me to move on, I couldn't sit there. George F. Will remained, undisturbed, it being a Lexus and all.
Good story, Mr. Whatnot.
Great story on Will. I've seen him at the park alot. Good to know that someone as successful as he is spends as much time as I do (or maybe more) watching baseball!
Not a streaky team? It depends on where you put the dividing line. 14-4 followed by 12-14 looks a little more streaky. BUT I recall a Boswell articles of many years back where he looked at a large number of playoff teams. What playoff teams typically did during the season, was to have 2-3 hot streaks where they played well (10 games over .500 or better), but played essentially .500 the rest of the year. Nats problem in the past is that they never played .500 the rest of the year. But this year ... we hope.
Sec.. 222 - I thought Strasburg was 37?
Eugene in Oregon said...
Sec.. 222 - I thought Strasburg was 37?
I love this hangout
Is Will still a part owner in the O's? I don't normally read any of the politicos (either side), only read them when they talk baseball. So
I thought Strasburg was 37?
Indeed. I was looking for sign 37 miles away, and considered getting off Route 81 and trying to find a "Welcome to Strasburg" sign. But settled for this one. He'll be 24 years old sooner or later, right? And maybe pitch for 24 seasons, or strike out 24 in a game, or have an ERA of 2.40.
My original point on Detwiler is that the knock on him, on this blog and elsewhere, has been on mental toughness. Tonight's game is a huge test for that. Is he as tough as Hudson? Can he be at his best when he knows his standing with the team is on the line, and with CMW looking over his shouldeer (literally, from the bullpen)? Can he make a statement game when first place is on the line? Those are the thoughts that drove me to poetry at 7:40 am.
As to the Sunday matchup, there's no doubt Beachy has been brilliant, but I'll take Gio over anybody in the league right now, in any given game and for the CY.
NCNatsie.. agree on the mental toughness. Which brings to mind Det's Last start. They announced BEFORE the game that CMW would go to bullpen (giving the Det the vote of confidence) and Det goes out and throws a stinker. SO maybe now that CMW is actually here and breathing down his neck, Det will step up.
Juniper, to me it would be streaky if it were 14-4 followed by, say, 8-18. 12-14 is the within the margin of error on .500. One game flipped and it's 13-13.
Agree, the trick is to have a few hot "streaks" and then minimize the losing to approximately .500. That's why you want to have "stoppers" in the rotation, so you don't have long skids even when the hitters are slumping.
Is this a dream? "much anticipated..." "NL East leader Washington..."
Not yet NatsLady. At the end of June ... then yeah its for real. Its still May with the tough month and a half coming up.
Davey Johnson told Corey Brown that given his talent, if he did what he was capable of the Nats wouldn't need to go out and get a CF. Hi Davey!
Sure looks like the Nats need hitting. TODAY! Doesn't it?
Time to keep your promises don't you think? The Nats need hitting and right now they need a CF who doesn't strike out every other at bat.
In Brown's 180 AB's he's managed to walk 31 times against only 39 K's. Of his 53 hits, 11 are home runs, 3 are triples, and 9 are doubles. He has a .399 OBP and a .960 OPS. And if you still like the antiquated batting average its now up to .294? All this from the lead off spot.
Time to put your money where your mouth is Davey. Brown has clearly outperformed most if not all the other prospects in the minors at the point. Bryce Harper at 19 with around 150 or so games in the outfield is not ready for CF. But Brown, a reasonably sublime fielder, is.
Bernadina was recalled under Riggleman for doing far less. As was JMax Mike Rizzo. Time to put your money where your mouth is.
That Adam Jones for Lannan, Lombo, Storen trade would be lookin mighty good right now. Don't blame the O's for turning it down though.
Peric.. Remember that Davey told Lannan he was the 5th starter.
I think we have to be careful with the mental toughness analysis. Consistency, confidence or composure are all easy enough to recognize. The idea that someone can bear down and suddenly achieve success is overblown. Too often failure is the result of trying too hard to be perfect.
Certainly Detwiler has yet to display the above on a sustained basis but he's close. I not ready to call him soft.
Not yet NatsLady. At the end of June ... then yeah its for real.
Four numbers. 2-0-0-5.
Re: Lombo et al for Jones--Not going to happen again, the O's are locking Jones up for 6/$85 mill, according to Twitter sources.
Peric.. Remember that Davey told Lannan he was the 5th starter.
And then Lannan paid him back by getting shelled in a relief appearance. One in which he had the warm up time for a starter. Lannan is still getting shelled.
Davey was pretty effusive about Corey Brown. Called him the biggest surprise of Spring Training ... especially since he didn't get a chance to see him last Fall due to the staph infection in his knee.
Four numbers. 2-0-0-5.
Two words that make it different: UNDER 30
As the Klingons might say to 2005: you are old and weak in 2012 we are young and strong!
As the Klingons might say to 2005: you are old and weak in 2012 we are young and strong!
And hopefully tonight Detwiler will be saying that to Chien Ming Wang.
Peric, let Brown keep it up for another month and you may see him. Right now Ankiel and Bernadina have the LH OF bat spots locked up. Once Morse returns and assuming he returns to form then you can afford an experiment with Brown between him and Harper.
I'm curious what Corey Brown could do too. But Rizzo doesn't seem to be unreasonably attached to the vets. He brought up Harper after all, and Tyler Moore. So if Brown isn't being recalled yet, I don't think it's because Rizzo isn't putting his money where his mouth is, it's because he thinks the Nats are better off playing Ankiel than Brown. Plus, when Morse and Werth are back, Harper is in center. With LaRoche playing so well, the chances of his option being picked up seem pretty good. That means we don't have a CF vacancy to fill after this season.
As for Davey not keeping his promises, he's made more promises than he can keep. It's part of his confidence building schtick. Annoying to me as a fan, but I've just learned to not take anything he says too seriously.
Rizzo isn't putting his money where his mouth is, it's because he thinks the Nats are better off playing Ankiel than Brown. Plus, when Morse and Werth are back, Harper is in center.
Harper is clearly not even close to ready to play CF. The same is true for RF. As for Morse and Werth. Werth is weeks away and he has not been even close to the hitter he was with the Phil's in 2010. He could end up as the bench bat replacing Nady for the rest of the season.
And LaRoche's bat has been cooling off. He is still a potential tradable asset before the trade deadline. Its ONLY MAY. Brown is another left-handed power bat that appears very comfortable in the Bermuda triangle of the Nats lineup known as lead off. He kills two birds with one stone. And saves prospects and money from leaving.
I don't see what harm it would do to bring Brown up and see what he does at this point. Except it would mean losing Ankiel or Bernadina. As Davey would say, "I think its time". One or the other should be traded ASAP.
Don't know about that but his son, who has Down Syndrome, works for the Nats.
(Disclaimer: As someone who is in the middle of the aisle, I prefer to avoid political discussions in venues such as this. I will say that we're all part of humankind and I believe it's possible to relate to one another on that basis without lumping people according to their political, religious, or other affiliations. Well, except for Phillies Phans, maybe. :-))
MicheleS said...
Is Will still a part owner in the O's? I don't normally read any of the politicos (either side), only read them when they talk baseball. So
May 25, 2012 11:34 AM
Brown has hit 4 home runs in four straight games in AAA. What does it take Davey?
Still trying to get my head around "reasonably sublime." Fangraphs doesn't keep stats for minor-league defense, so whoever has watched Syracuse games, can you give feedback on Brown at CF?
I thought Lannan was doing better but I see he gave up 6 earned in 6 innings, including 3 HR (11 hits, 4 walks) in his most recent start on May 16. His ERA is at 5.80 and he starts again tonight.
On topic, this feels like a big series to me. Don't know how much I'll see in real time what with the later starts tonight and on Sunday. Additionally, my hubby had invited a friend over tomorrow evening. Hope they don't mind ordering in pizza for dinner. Kidding. Or not. :-)
The harm is messing with what's been a winning formula. Individual statistical failings not withstanding, that team is playing well and a lot of that is from a clubhouse atmosphere standpoint.
Moore and Harper came up due to injury more than replacement of failing players.
Section 222 said...
... But Rizzo doesn't seem to be unreasonably attached to the vets. He brought up Harper after all, and Tyler Moore.
In both cases there was space on the roster created by a DL move; Lidge for Harper and DeRosa for Moore. Unless someone gets hurt or the club wants to fake an injury, calling up Brown means someone will get sent down or DFA'ed. I'm OK with that, but it's not the same circumstances.
Still trying to get my head around "reasonably sublime." Fangraphs doesn't keep stats for minor-league defense, so whoever has watched Syracuse games, can you give feedback on Brown at CF?
I guess you didn't catch the web gem he caught in ST in his final game with the big club?
His fielding is ranked better than Trout's if that helps. I'd say he is as good if not better than Ankiel from what I've seen ... he has a great arm but its not as good as Ankiel's. But then, no one's arm is as good as Ankiel's. Brown has better range and instincts than does ex-pitcher Ankiel.
Corey Brown is a five-tool former 1st round pick of the Oakland A's.
means someone will get sent down or DFA'ed. I'm OK with that, but it's not the same circumstances.
As I recall they DFA'ed Davey favorite Brett Carroll for Nady? Why not for Brown? Brown appears to be ready.
MicheleS shouted with glee:
“GAME DAY!!!! Thankfully no boredom today.”
I second that emotion. The off-day yesterday seemed empty. What to do? I thought about sky diving or bungee jumping, but they both seem so boring compared to watching the Nats! And I managed to sneak two song titles into one short post.
peric said...
Brown has hit 4 home runs in four straight games in AAA. What does it take Davey?
Maybe Davey is quoting your other comment that you keep making: "it's only May"
;-)
Maybe Davey is quoting your other comment that you keep making: "it's only May"
And I've also said Ankiel will be Ankiel in May, June, July, August, and September ... which may mean no October.
He is over 30 and a hopeless case ... far more than HRod, this leopard never changes his spots. Its swing for the fences at everything even if its in the dirt and once-in-a-blue-moon connect for a homer. It gets wearying when they keep starting the guy in CF. Arm or no arm.
Off days are bo-ring. Speaking of off, I'm going to give myself the rest of the day off and take in a movie with the hubster. Type at y'all later. :-)
Brother Juniper said...
MicheleS shouted with glee:
“GAME DAY!!!! Thankfully no boredom today.”
I second that emotion. The off-day yesterday seemed empty. What to do? I thought about sky diving or bungee jumping, but they both seem so boring compared to watching the Nats! And I managed to sneak two song titles into one short post.
May 25, 2012 12:23 PM
Peric-Agree 100% on Corey Brown and the need to replace Ankiel. I honestly think Rizzo and Davey are afraid to make the move because 1.) they would have to get rid of an outfielder like Bernadina or Ankiel 2.) everybody will realize that with Morse back and Harper here to stay, Brown could prove to be better than Werth, making him the most expensive 4th OF ever to play the game. The time has come to bring him up...our pitching staff has better AB's than Ankiel, Nady, and usually Bernadina (although I still have hope for him).
alexva said...
I think we have to be careful with the mental toughness analysis. [lots of other thoughtful stuff] I not ready to call him soft.
Word. I cannot stand the "not mentally tough" criticism. It's unfair, it's utterly unprovable and ultimately unknowable. It's faux-nalysis.
I, on the other hand, am mentally tough enough to throw a hard object at anyone who disagrees with my sentiment, because I am both old-school AND prestigious. You can tell by my "name" above.
Peric, F & I,
I think that Bernadina needs a fresh start somewhere else. I think that Anliel profiles reasonably well as a bat off the bench and a defensive replacement for say Morse.
I wouldn't stress over Werth just yet for several reasons. No 1 he is out for a long time; no. 2 LaRoche is not guaranteed to back next year (making a Morse move to 1st a distinct possibility).
One way or another I think that Brown at 26 years of age has earned at least a prolonged tryout especially considering the problems we are having at leadoff.
Unlike the situation with Tyler Moore, who, if I recall correctly peric also was sure was a can't miss prospect who had hit a bunch of homeruns in AAA, there's a cost to bringing up Brown -- one of the other LH outfielders would have to go. My guess is that Rizzo wants to get something for Ankiel or Bernandina, rather than DFA one of them. Or at least be absolutely sure that Brown is ready and will produce.
peric said...
"That means someone will get sent down or DFA'ed. I'm OK with that, but it's not the same circumstances."
As I recall they DFA'ed Davey favorite Brett Carroll for Nady? Why not for Brown? Brown appears to be ready.
Fine with me. I was just pointing out that it's not the same circumstances as the Harper or Moore callups. It's an in-season roster move that would require them to use an option or DFA someone who has none.
I hope they do it, but it's not the same as the no-risk callup to replace a DL player. For example, what if they can rope some other team into a Bernadina trade for a semi-decent prospect? Why give a guy away for nothing in order to create a space for Brown when you could potentially add Brown and a marginal prospect?
On the subject of ALR regressing to his mean, I checked some traditional stats (someone else can do the sabremetrics if they want) and found that for the 3 years before he joined the Nats (08, 09, 10) his mean from June on was .284 with 21 HR's. In April-May those years, he only hit .238, accounting for his reputation as a slow starter.
Clearly he wasn't going to hit .350 all year, but if he does .284 and 21 homers for the rest of the season, he will have both regressed to his mean AND made a heckuva contribution to a playoff season for the Nats!
Sec 222,
You are not getting much for either Bernie or Ankiel. If you can get a backup catcher or a low level prospect you are lucky. But the point is that if Brown is better than the alternative both in the field and at lead off you need to make the move. You keep trotting out machines into the starting lineup you will eventually start losing.
Completely disagree. Whether or not you want to stick that label on Detwiler (and I pretty much do), my life experience and my observation of baseball players tells me, yes, there is a real difference in how players react to adversity.
To make it at the star level, you need talent, hard work, luck, ambition and "mental toughness." Most people scrape by, even in ML baseball, missing one or more of those elements. But to be at the top top, you have to have them all.
__________________________________________________
That old-school, prestigious way of Scooter said...
alexva said...
I think we have to be careful with the mental toughness analysis. [lots of other thoughtful stuff] I not ready to call him soft.
Word. I cannot stand the "not mentally tough" criticism. It's unfair, it's utterly unprovable and ultimately unknowable. It's faux-nalysis.
Game one goes to the Braves. Hudson will take the Nats dismal batting order apart. Series goes to the Nats, but barely. Our hitting can kill us.
Game one goes to the Braves. Hudson will take the Nats dismal batting order apart. Series goes to the Nats, but barely. Our hitting can kill us.
if Brown is better than the alternative both in the field and at lead off you need to make the move.
I don't disagree with this statement. And I'm really curious how Brown could do at leadoff. But the point is that you can't be sure whether he is better than the alternative or not. As we've seen with Moore, raking in AAA doesn't necessarily equate with being better than Ankiel or Bernadina in the majors. And since there is a cost to making the move, Rizzo is going to wait until he's sure. He was sure with Harper, and the Zim to the DL move gave him the room to try him out. There was similarly no cost to bringing up Moore (thank goodness). He's probably watching Brown closely. But unless he can get value for one of the alternatives, or another injury gives him an opening on the 25 man, I doubt he pulls the trigger anytime soon.
By the way, if he were RH, I'd cut Nady to give him a shot in a nanosecond...
JD, actually, a backup catcher wouldn't be the worst thing to trade Bernie for at this point... We are on shaky ground, although Solana is now off the DL according to the Syracuse roster.
Corey Brown is another lefty, so if you want to bring him up (and I'm always dubious because AAA is very different than ML), then trade Bernadina for a backup catcher and a PTBNL.
You won't get much for Bernie, but at least he's young and under team control. You probably won't get anything for Ankiel. I say that as a fan of the Arm, but a realistic fan.
Call it "resilience" if you prefer. "Mental toughness" is a really loaded term.
It's certainly an intangible, like "clutch" performances, which the SABR folks, I'm told, insist is a mirage of confirmation bias. Since there doesn't seem to be a clear definition, I don't know how you'd "prove" it in the negative. Certainly, the criticism of "not mentally tough" is unfairly applied, frequently, by fans at least, to players.
That said, does anybody anywhere doubt that some people definitely have it? Even if it's ill-defined and mostly subjective, there is such a thing as being able to put bad outcomes behind you and carry on, the ability to focus in high-pressure situations consistently, and to "stay cocky, even when you're getting beat."
Unlike the situation with Tyler Moore, who, if I recall correctly peric also was sure was a can't miss prospect who had hit a bunch of homeruns in AAA,
As I recall section 222 likes to look like a foolish nine year old playing fantasy baseball? Dude, Moore hit 30+ in A+, AA, and was on his way to doing the same thing in AAA.
Can Moore hit for average and consistently? Remains to be seen but he is a legit power bat and the jury is still out because instead of starting he is languishing on the bench! Mostly because he has yet to learn how to play in the outfield! Not because he is an abject failure per your implication.
My god imbecilic posts like these? Hoc est ridiculum!
By the way, if he were RH, I'd cut Nady to give him a shot in a nanosecond...
Perhaps Brett Carroll was a better choice than Nady. Sure looks that way.
In fact I think I would bring up Brown AND Teahen. Both are doing extremely well in Syracuse and Teahen comes with a lot of flexibility. But both are left-handed bats. I can see losing both Ankiel and Bernadina to prospect trades and using those two in their stead.
My god imbecilic posts like these? Hoc est ridiculum!
Geez. Even when you're right, you're a hotel.
I would tend to agree with the general sentiment of rabbit's comment, though I'm not as sure as I was earlier in the day. Hudson is tough, to be sure, but Halladay was what, 11-0 against us and what did we do to him the other night? Add to that that the Braves are coming off a four-game sweep in Cincy and I don't see them losing five in a row, especially now that they're back home. HowEVER, someone pointed out earlier that this is their 15th or 16th consecutive game, so they've got be tired. The key is Detwiler not getting behind early and us getting on Hudson early, like we did with Doc.
That Sunday night game ought to be something special to watch. I certainly hope it comes out the way the last Nats game did against one of my fantasy starters, a certain Mr. Wei-Yin Chen of Baltimore. I put him on the bench and voila, he has a lousy start. So maybe BeachyBum can do the same this Sunday. He's about due for a stinker, I think.
Geez. Even when you're right, you're a hotel.
You insult a lot of Indian's with that barb. Many are named Patel. Which is their version of the English word Hotel.
Rabbit and Ron, there's a reason they play the games.
I think one of the most glaring flaws we have as fans and bloggers is a lack of patience. We love having a young team but expect them to show up on the field fully formed, finished and mature. Detweiler has greatly improved in his demeanor on the mound. Just like Desi needed to mature over a few seasons, so does Espi, so does Detweiler. If you don't give them that space to improve, they will deteriorate like Tyler Moore is most definitely going to do. One of the problems the Fils have is that they played their regulars into the ground and never gave their backups and new guys any reps to mature. It's a process and most of the time you can't skip steps.
You insult a lot of Indian's [sic] with that barb. Many are named Patel. Which is their version of the English word Hotel.
LOL. You've outdone yourself there, Danger Ranger.
I'll be more specific: Alpha Hotel.
Soul Possession, My PFB Hitterish Sofa said...
I'll be more specific: Alpha Hotel
-----------------------------------
PFB Sofa, PFB
Soul Possession, My PFB Hitterish Sofa said...
It's certainly an intangible, like "clutch" performances, which the SABR folks, I'm told, insist is a mirage of confirmation bias. Since there doesn't seem to be a clear definition, I don't know how you'd "prove" it in the negative.
What you do is show that a player's ability to perform in the clutch one year has virtually no correlation with his ability to do so the next year, once you account for his normal performance levels. And that's been shown to be the case. Being clutch (or not clutch) one year has no predictive value when it comes to whether you'll be clutch the next year.
Here is a slightly more detailed statement of what I just wrote, with links to studies to back it up:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656
As for Detwiler. His "replacement" is now "languishing" on the bench waiting for a chance. He'll be warming up during the game more than likely. We'll see how Detwiler responds to that. I suspect he'll respond like Hamel's did to facing the Nats again. Detwiler will shut the Braves down.
It hasn't been easy for Detwiler either NatsLady and let's face it he was brought up as a newly minted draft pick by JimBo. A monstrous mistake typical of that ESPN blogger and podcast / radio host. Detwiler did not have the best experience with a decent player development program when he first came into the system. He appears to have improved as the quality of the system has improved. I'd bet on Detwiler.
And as for Davey not believing in "auditioning". Kind of like what everyone has been telling me. Don't believe what he says. Right NatsLady?
Rabbit, I really hope the rest did some good because we need the Face to get his power bat going.
In the last 28 days he's had 2 doubles and 1 HR--no power. You have to think the shoulder is affecting that, since he's had 16 singles in the same period. His slash for the last 28 days according to BR is .271/.358/.356.
I'll be more specific: Alpha Hotel.
Bedbugs might be in hotels. But they live in beds and yes sofas.
Soul Possession, My PFB Hitterish Sofa said...
Call it "resilience" if you prefer. "Mental toughness" is a really loaded term. blah blah blah really good points blah blah
Well put, Sec3. Yes, using another term would help very much.
And sure, the trait exists. I just think that almost all guys who make it to the majors have an awful lot of it. Probably a lot more than I, to be frank with you. And I really don't think I can judge a guy's resilience from watching him on TV (playing Major League baseball, which took an awful lot of resilience to even get there) once a week for two months. I just can't.
Every time I hear that Detwiler isn't tough, I remember the zillion times I heard that about Craig Stammen. Let's just say I'm running out of salt.
In the last 28 days he's had 2 doubles and 1 HR--no power. You have to think the shoulder is affecting that, since he's had 16 singles in the same period.
And as FP observed, they are consistently pitching him outside because they know he can't reach those pitches. Right now he is a pretty weak #3 hitter due to the shoulder. I suspect he eventually ends up as a #5/#6 hitter when Morse gets back. With Harper sandwiched between Morse and he. LaRoche after Morse in the #3 spot. That'd be my guess given the injury.
Agree that Detwiler was not handled properly.
But now he's like the kid who was the smartest in the class in every grade and valedictorian of his high school, and suddenly he's shocked because at an Ivy League school everyone was a valedictorian. Some people thrive when they are surrounded by their peers in skill and talent. Some, well, some don't.
Soul Possession, My PFB Hitterish Sofa said...
Rabbit and Ron, there's a reason they play the games.
Well ... yeah. It's in their dang contracts. Otherwise, they don't get paid.
Sheesh.
And to finish that thought about the definition of "clutch"- the studies show no correlation for a variety of definitions. Late and close, in September, RISP generally, and so on. You could keep inventing new definitions of clutch if you wanted I guess, but the results would almost certainly be the same. It's a myth.
This is only for hitting, though. I think there are clearly some pitchers who struggle in certain situations, as we saw with Henry over the last month.
If Det is bad tonight, this what should happen, make Det long relief and call up Lannan, Either Wang or Lannan should get a chance for the 5th spot. I still say to all you Henry fans, if you want him , then send Perry of to Siberia and make Henry a middle reliever. If not, then when Storen and Lidge comeback, it would seem to me that Perry and Henry should hit the trail
Sec3.. convert all my mental toughness comments to resilience. Agree a better word.
Or maybe intestinal fortitude would be another term.. Lord knows we need it.
I think Det is very soft
Stammen didn't enter my consciousness that much in previous years, so can't speak to his history. Apparently he was miscast as a starter, and maybe he got tough, maybe he always was.
Everyone is agreed that sending Lannan down to give Det his chance was the right thing to do when CMW got injured in ST. But CMW is back now, and we have the same competition we had before for the No. 5 slot.
Let me make a different comparison. Ross Detwiler is six months younger, almost to the day, than Gio Gonzalez. Do you think Detwiler is going to grow up and be Gio? And are you willing to lose a bunch of games to see if he does?
mark my words, we will need Lannan and Wang down the stretch. One of our top 4 will need some rest. We will need Lidge and storen, we do not need Henry
Nats lady proves my point. The Gio verse Det comparison says it all
If Det is bad tonight, this what should happen, make Det long relief and call up Lannan, Either Wang or Lannan should get a chance for the 5th spot. I still say to all you Henry fans, if you want him , then send Perry of to Siberia and make Henry a middle reliever. If not, then when Storen and Lidge comeback, it would seem to me that Perry and Henry should hit the trail
BTW, I think it's great that we are having this kind of discussion about the No. 5 starter!! None of the choices (Det/CMW/Lannan) is truly bad, they are all ML pitchers on a lot of teams.
NatsLady - If you gave Detwiler or any number of other pitchers Gio's stuff then they'd be "mentally tougher".
alexva--LOL! Good point. Still laughing because Doc Halladay, no slouch, said he wished if he were a lefty he had what Gio was throwing.
Ross Detwiler is six months younger, almost to the day, than Gio Gonzalez. Do you think Detwiler is going to grow up and be Gio?
No. But I also don't think it's because he's a [less than ideally manly individual]. And in case you're wondering, I also don't think Strasburg is going to grow up to be Detwiler. It's not clear to me what you were going for here.
I don't believe I knew you, NL, when Stammen was struggling to get by a couple years ago. But yeah, I heard plenty from others about how weak and soft he was. My point above wasn't to say that YOU were wrong about Stammen, but to say that fans are often wrong about players.
So, it was a general point. As such, there's a good chance it doesn't apply to you, whose glamor and sensitivity are rivaled only by your powers of perception. Anyway, I've enjoyed hashing this out.
Yeah, alexva said what I meant, only much better. I have been well and truly shown up.
Hey rookie, watch out for one in the ribs.
:-)
Aw, Scooter. (blush). I wasn't on this site when Stammen was having his struggles, so who knows what I might have said if I had been. Now, I went and folded laundry and thought about a day when Gio didn't have his best stuff, and was struggling, he still didn't give up six runs. So it isn't all stuff.
OTOH, maybe Gio's stuff is so much better than Det's that even on Gio's worst he out-pitches Detwiler?... No, that can't be it...I'm completely tangled now, better shut up and wait for a baseball game to start.
Good call, NatsLady. A game will make everything better.
Gonzalez at his worst? I'm sure you're right, he wouldn't out-pitch Detwiler. But let's be open to the possibility that we haven't seen Gonzalez's worst. You know?
mark my words, we will need Lannan and Wang down the stretch. One of our top 4 will need some rest. We will need Lidge and storen, we do not need Henry
Uh how can I put this NICELY to someone who isn't paying attention? How about WRONG. WRONG. WRONG Mick. WRONG. WRONG.
Lannan is at the bottom of the basement. He's behind Yunsesky Maya right now!!!! Maya is pitching lights out in May. Lannan is getting shelled and is again the worst pitcher in that starting rotation. If they needed a pitcher from the minors to start it would be Yunesky Maya not John Lannan who would be called.
Now as for Henry. They HAVE NO REPLACEMENT for HIM! He is unique with the stuff that he has! Doh! I feel like I'm speaking to Homer Simpson with a radioactive fuel rod in his back pocket! C'mon use your head for something besides a hat rack!
No one is ready to step up for Henry in the minors. Yeah they have a couple of possibilities in Harrisburg but neither Hassan Pena nor Rafael Martin could translate success in Harrisburg to success in Syracuse at least not yet. NO REPLACEMENT short of a trade. And any trade would yield a lesser player talent-wise.
There was a study some decades ago where a sociologist was observing a street gang in, I think, L.A. Every week or so the gang went bowling, and the toughest, meanest, most prestigious guy ALWAYS won. The sociologist observed that if, as sometimes happened, one of the other gang members was ahead in the final frame, he ALWAYS choked and blew it.
Not choking and blowing it is mental toughness, like the term or not.
I was a pretty good foul shooter on my HS basketball team. The year we made the state tournament, I was 5 for 5 in the first half. But later in the game, when the pressure was on and it might have made a real difference, I choked and blew it.
You can say I just reverted to my mean if you want to, but you wouldn't say it if you'd been standing on the line in my sneakers that day.
If Det is bad tonight, this what should happen, make Det long relief and call up Lannan, Either Wang or Lannan should get a chance for the 5th spot. I
THEY ARE NOT GOING to call up Lannan. It would send the wrong message to the entire minor league system. Get it out of your head! My gawd!
A lot of this depends on what you call a "chance". Is it 40 games or is it half a season or is it a full season or more than one season? All too often what is called a chance is just too short a time. We have seen this time and again, a player doesn't play like an allstar right away and we give up on them. I think this is especially true when someone is switched to a new position. Any player who is platooned will drop in hitting, it's even harder with a young bench player. Veterans seem to be able to handle it better since they have so much experience. I even think Ankiel, although he is older, is not a very experienced hitter since he spent most of his time pitching, on the bench or platooning. There are very rare exceptions - we maybe looking at 2 of them in BH and SS, but most of the players take a long time to develop and probably need to play every day for a couple of seasons.
peric said...
Uh how can I put this NICELY to someone who isn't paying attention? How about WRONG. WRONG. WRONG Mick. WRONG. WRONG.
Peric, I am paying attention, are you? If Lannan is that bad, they would have cut him by now. Has it ever occurred to you that Lannan took his demotion hard and that maybe, he is the kind of player that needs a well deserved second chance up with the team? Has it ever occurred to you that our one, maybe two of our top four pitchers, may need some rest in July or August and that bringing up a guy who was your opening day starter last year may be a good way to go?
Lannan is at the bottom of the basement.....
If Lannan is at the bottom of the basement, what the heck would you call Henry?? Maya sucks plain and simple and I am surprised he is still with the organization
Now as for Henry. They HAVE NO REPLACEMENT for HIM! He is unique with the stuff that he has! Doh! I feel like I'm speaking to Homer Simpson with a radioactive fuel rod in his back pocket! C'mon use your head for something besides a hat rack!
Your Homer Simpson insult you can stick pal. In fact, his replacements are in front of your eyes which appear to be SHUT, they are Stammen, Wang or Det if Henry is a middle relief guy and they are Lidge, Storen and Burnett if he is the closer which only a buffoon like a Homer Simpson thinks he is.
As I recall section 222 likes to look like a foolish nine year old playing fantasy baseball? Dude, Moore hit 30+ in A+, AA, and was on his way to doing the same thing in AAA.
Can Moore hit for average and consistently? Remains to be seen but he is a legit power bat and the jury is still out because instead of starting he is languishing on the bench! Mostly because he has yet to learn how to play in the outfield! Not because he is an abject failure per your implication.
I left out the bolding and the personal insult, because I'm trying really hard not to take it personally when you attack, but you just prove my point. T.Moore did all that in the minors. I don't dispute that. But he's done diddly during this callup. Yes, he hasn't had alot of opportunities, but he has three singles in 17 ABs. Not a single walk. That's a BA, OBP, and SLG of .176, and an OPS+ of -3! He may very well be a legit power bat, someday. But the jury is not still out as to whether he can help the Nats this year as a starting or bench player. He can't. And Davey seems to have reached the same conclusion.
Now, I'm not saying it was a mistake to call him up. It was cost free because of the DeRosa injury. All I'm saying is that your certainty about the ability of Corey Brown to hit better than Ankiel or Bernadina doesn't give me alot of comfort. As hard as it may be for you to accept, your flavor of the month prospect may not be ready to hit major league pitching. And before I DFA a serviceable major league player like Ankiel or Bernadina I'd want more than the big talk of someone who enjoys calling other people nine year olds when they disagree with him.
Play nice, boys. Don't make me drill somebody.
(Man, am I itching to plunk someone today or what? What's up with that?)
NL, I think you're making a big mistake if you give up on Det, or even reach any conclusions about his mental toughness (to the extent that matters) after the first two months of his first year in the rotation. I think he should move to the pen for Wang, but I also think he's going to be a very good starter over the long haul. Power lefties don't grow on trees and he's developing very nicely.
Scooter, it has been almost 2 days since we had a game. That's why you want to plunk someone.. no game action.
That old-school, prestigious way of Scooter
plunk this, lol!
Section 222 brings up a good point.. Det is a Lefty. After Davey's comment about Hammels being a lefty (the quirkyness), maybe it will take a while for Det to fully develop - as pointed out, he was not handled properly early on. Gio being the obvious exception to all the lefty comments
F&I
Brown isn't being brought up because:
everybody will realize that with Morse back and Harper here to stay, Brown could prove to be better than Werth, making him the most expensive 4th OF
Uh . . . really?
Brown isn't being brought up because they're scared he'll be too good? Because he might be better than a guy who might not come back for possibly two months?
Are you sure you want to stand by that statement?
BTW.. I do like the 2 profile picture changes for 222 and for NatsLady. Just confirms that if Clipp goes missing, We know where to look
;-) I kid because I love
I submit, MicheleS, that 1) Gonzalez may not be done developing either; and b) the guy is so clearly a wackjob, he must be left-handed!
Okay, y'all, it's been tons of fun. If the traffic isn't too bad, maybe I can sneak over to the batting cage before I have to actually go home. (Shhhhhh!) I hope the pitching machine is neither old-school nor prestigious.
Well, I wasn't just looking at Det this season, I saw him last year too. :) It does seem odd (in a bit of self-examination) that I'm entirely willing to give Espi and Henry a lot of rope for their development--at least as much as Davey/Rizzo--but I hold back on Detwiler. He just doesn't give me positive vibes.
And from twitter from Ladson:
Just putting it out there: I wonder if Roger Bernadina's days with the #Nats are numbered. Can't blame them for playing Lombo lately.
There was a study some decades ago where a sociologist was observing a street gang in, I think, L.A. Every week or so the gang went bowling, and the toughest, meanest, most prestigious guy ALWAYS won. The sociologist observed that if, as sometimes happened, one of the other gang members was ahead in the final frame, he ALWAYS choked and blew it.
"That's because droids don't tear people's arms out of the sockets when they lose."
Letting The Wookie Win is not a lack of mental resilience.
Letting The Wookie Win is not a lack of mental resilience.
Hahah. Been actually working today so just catching up but Sofa wins the thread with that web gem.
(I know, no one's paying attention any more because they've all moved on to the latest new thing (thread).)
Still, thanks, Eddie!
Sec222: "Hey, how about some love for my new Google Blogger picture? I risked life and limb to get it. (Not really, maybe just risked some poison ivy.)"
By the time you get to Woodstock, you'll be halfway there (or something like that: my Crosby, Stills & Nash repertoire is pretty rusty)
I heart you, Sec3. Once again, someone says what I wanted to, only much better.
(guessing) it's kinda hot, and we're ready for some baseball. Eh, what the hey, drill away. :-)
That old-school, prestigious way of Scooter said...
Play nice, boys. Don't make me drill somebody.
(Man, am I itching to plunk someone today or what? What's up with that?)
May 25, 2012 3:25 PM
Oh, now I owe MicheleS a Coke. Heh.
In other news, the movie (Men in Black III) was pretty good, and there was even a (NYM) baseball reference that included Davey. So there you go. :-)
With music strong I come—with my cornets and my drums,
I play not marches for accepted victors only—I play great marches for conquer’d and slain persons.
Have you heard that it was good to gain the day?
I also say it is good to fall—battles are lost in the same spirit in which they are won.
I beat and pound for the dead;
I blow through my embouchures my loudest and gayest for them.
Vivas to those who have fail’d!
And to those whose war-vessels sank in the sea!
And to those themselves who sank in the sea!
And to all generals that lost engagements! and all overcome heroes!
And the numberless unknown heroes, equal to the greatest heroes known.
Post a Comment