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US Presswire photo What will Jayson Werth hit this season? We've got some varied predictions. |
This, of course, is the most anticipated season since the Nationals arrived in town in 2005. And that means there are no shortage of predictions that can be made about this club. As we've done the last two seasons, my counterparts on the Nats beat were kind enough to fill out some questionnaires and make some bold predictions about the local ballclub.
Feel free to rip on us for our wide-ranging choices (though we'll certainly respect you more if you're willing to put your own reputation on the line and publish your picks as well)...
Who will represent the Nats at the All-Star Game?
Mark Zuckerman (CSNwashington.com) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann
Adam Kilgore (Washington Post) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Jayson Werth
Dave Sheinin (Washington Post) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmermann
Amanda Comak (Washington Times) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmermann
Bill Ladson (MLB.com) -- Ryan Zimmermann, Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond
Dan Kolko (MASNsports.com) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg
Pete Kerzel (MASNsports.com) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez
Brian McNally (Washington Examiner) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg
Craig Heist (WTOP) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmermann
What will total home attendance be?
Bill Ladson -- 3,000,000
Amanda Comak -- 2,745,670
Brian McNally -- 2,700,000
Craig Heist -- 2,550,000
Mark Zuckerman -- 2,368,914
Dan Kolko -- 2,280,000
Dave Sheinin -- 2,313,753
Adam Kilgore -- 2,226,652
Pete Kerzel -- 2,099,631
When will Bryce Harper make his MLB debut?
Pete Kerzel -- May 6 vs. Phillies
Adam Kilgore -- May 17 vs. Pirates
Brian McNally -- May 25 at Braves
Craig Heist -- May 27 at Braves
Bill Ladson -- June 1 vs. Braves
Mark Zuckerman -- June 19 vs. Rays
Amanda Comak -- June 19 vs. Rays
Dan Kolko -- June 20 vs. Rays
Dave Sheinin -- July 6 vs. Rockies
How many home runs will Harper hit in the majors this season?
Craig Heist -- 13
Adam Kilgore -- 12
Pete Kerzel -- 12
Mark Zuckerman -- 11
Amanda Comak -- 11
Bill Ladson -- 10
Dan Kolko -- 9
Brian McNally -- 7
Dave Sheinin -- 7
How many strikeouts will Stephen Strasburg record?
Brian McNally -- 180
Mark Zuckerman -- 177
Bill Ladson -- 177
Dave Sheinin -- 165
Adam Kilgore -- 155
Craig Heist -- 150
Amanda Comak -- 147
Pete Kerzel -- 142
Dan Kolko -- 140
What will Jayson Werth's batting average be?
Bill Ladson -- .290
Pete Kerzel -- .287
Amanda Comak -- .273
Brian McNally -- .272
Craig Heist -- .270
Mark Zuckerman -- .268
Dan Kolko -- .268
Adam Kilgore -- .265
Dave Sheinin -- .264
How many home runs will Michael Morse hit?
Mark Zuckerman -- 28
Amanda Comak -- 28
Brian McNally -- 26
Adam Kilgore -- 23
Craig Heist -- 23
Dan Kolko -- 21
Pete Kerzel -- 21
Bill Ladson -- 20
Dave Sheinin -- 18
What will Ian Desmond's on-base percentage be?
Bill Ladson -- .360
Amanda Comak -- .326
Brian McNally -- .325
Pete Kerzel -- .325
Craig Heist -- .320
Mark Zuckerman -- .318
Dave Sheinin -- .315
Adam Kilgore -- .314
Dan Kolko -- .310
How many games will Adam LaRoche play for the Nationals?
Pete Kerzel -- 132
Adam Kilgore -- 130
Bill Ladson -- 130
Mark Zuckerman -- 127
Dan Kolko -- 125
Craig Heist -- 110
Brian McNally -- 98
Amanda Comak -- 91
Dave Sheinin -- 31
Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many?
Bill Ladson -- Jordan Zimmermann, 20
Dan Kolko -- Gio Gonzalez, 17
Amanda Comak -- Gio Gonzalez, 17
Mark Zuckerman -- Jordan Zimmermann, 16
Brian McNally -- Jordan Zimmermann, 16
Dave Sheinin -- Jordan Zimmermann, 16
Craig Heist -- Jordan Zimmermann, 16
Adam Kilgore -- Jordan Zimmermann, 15
Pete Kerzel -- Jordan Zimmermann, 14
How many games will Drew Storen save?
Dave Sheinin -- 40
Amanda Comak -- 39
Mark Zuckerman -- 37
Dan Kolko -- 34
Brian McNally -- 32
Pete Kerzel -- 31
Bill Ladson -- 30
Adam Kilgore -- 28
Craig Heist -- 28
How many games will the Nats win?
Pete Kerzel -- 88
Adam Kilgore -- 87
Dan Kolko -- 87
Brian McNally -- 87
Amanda Comak -- 86
Bill Ladson -- 85
Craig Heist -- 85
Mark Zuckerman -- 84
Dave Sheinin -- 83
80 comments:
Thank God A new Post. I am going with 86 wins. I have had the kookaid all off season, but starting getting worried with the injuries otherwise I would have really gone of the deep end and picked some ludicrous amount.
And to brighten everyone's morning: The Marlins are currenlty in LAST PLACE in the NL East
GYFNG!!!!
What, no prediction about whether the Nats will make the playoffs? Since it's opening day and I'm feeling optimistic, I predict they will.
Kilgore and Steinberg report that 19 "experts" from various sports reporting entities are picking the Nats to make the playoffs ... versus 0 from last year.
Funny how Bill Ladson is so optimistic in just about every category (Ian Desmond in the ASG?!) but he's bearish in the win totals department.
Well, Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you for making the off-season go a little faster.
Just looked at the daily matchups. Small sample size (16 AB), but Zimm has owned Dempster.
Wish I had a PFB sofa to watch the game on today.
Ladson might be a closet Marlins fan ...
The PBR sofa is best ... and a refreshing beverage as well!
Of course it's the last question that matters most, nice that all expect a winning record. After an offseason that accelerated expectations it's time to play the games. I doubt few predicted the '89 Os or the '10 Padres to contend to the end but they got some breaks along the way and their confidence carried them through.
That's all the '12 Nats need at this point, with Davey at the switch it could happen. Play ball!
If any of the picks above happen, the Nats should be in for one heck of a great season. You know some other players not picked will have a good year. But, that Kilgore guy, he is kidding about Jason Werth isn't he? Unbelievable.
I watched the Marlins last night and discovered I hate them (competively that is) more than the Phillies (who run a close second). We are going to have such a fun season in this division!!!!! GO NATIONALS!!!
90 wins. Second place in the NL east. Ramos to the all-star game. Wild card entry in the playoffs advancing to next level.
I can't believe nobody picked Michael Morse for the All Star game.
88 wins for the Nats this year.
I hope the Nats soar this year, but don't think they will win as many as we wish, given management's failure to meet all of its offseason goals. Rizzo knows that, and I think he's probably anxious about the team's performance, given the high expectations in some quarters. It seems clear that he wanted to add one effective pitcher to the rotation, and that was to be accomplished by the signing of Buehrle. Then, the other need-adding offensive punch with a position player- could be addressed by trading some of the minor league depth. When Buehrle fell through, he was forced to address rotation depth by trading the minor leaguers for Gio, and to find offense somewhere else. That leads to the courtship of Fielder, who I believe would have been a Nat, on terms palatable to the team, but for a bad break (literally) that caused Detroit to enter the Fielder market and take him from us.
That leads to the strange signing of Jackson, for $11 million dollars, giving the team too much depth in the major league rotation. Why did that occur? It seems clear the team saw that as an opportunity to trade a pitcher for the needed offensive punch, and I believe they tried desperately, up until the final hour, to make such a trade with Lannan. This now appears to have been a significant miscalculation, as they have found no takers for him. As a result, the team has spent an additional $11 million to flip Jackson for Lannan, and may not get any better pitching performance from that swap. Additionally, the long-sought offensive sparkplug, whose acquisition the team acknowledged to be one of its fundamental offseason needs, remains somewhere other than Washington.
That's why I think they'll fall a little short, but hope I'm wrong. Go Nats!
The only one that matters is the number of wins. I'm going with 87. Will it be good enough to make the playoffs? I honestly doubt it, but stranger things have happened. I wanted to go all out and pick the Nationals winning the division, but I guess someone watered down my kookaid this morning.
Rabbit, we ALL hate the Marlins. In the case of the Phillies, I think it's not so much the team as the Phans. I got nothin' against Marlins fans because I've never met one. Stinkin' Fish.
I can't believe no one picked Clip for a repeat trip to the All Star Game. :) :)
I stocked my fridge last night with a sixer of Goose Island Honkers Ale to enjoy as I watch today's game on the TV facing my beachside couch. That Chicago brewery has a bar in Wrigleyville so it seemed an appropriate beverage with which to celebrate a Nationals' victory over the Cubbies.
I predict 86 wins for the Nats, and that the Zimm brothers Ryan and Jordan will represent the team at the All-Star Game.
No one is picking John Lannan to get to the All Star game?
Agreed, NatsLady; I have great respect for the Phillies roster and the organization that put the team together It's their obnoxious to the point of thuggish "phans" that I loathe.
Gonna break in my new (cable) TV today, at least for 1/2 hour before I have to go to work. Since I don't have a remote (but they are sending one!) and no HD (cheapie me til I see how it works) it's been functioning as a computer monitor since I got it. Now I will have to get off my duff and press buttons and find the channel... Ah, life is good.
My guesses:
Who will represent the Nats at the All-Star Game?
The Zimmermen(n)
What will total home attendance be?
I agree with Kilgor on this one. Somewhere around 2,226,652 would be having an extra ~3K at each game over last year.
When will Bryce Harper make his MLB debut?
June 19 vs. Rays
How many home runs will Harper hit in the majors this season?
8
How many strikeouts will Stephen Strasburg record?
130 I think Strasburg is going to have a rough year. However I think in the long run this will be a good thing for him.
What will Jayson Werth's batting average be?
.258
How many home runs will Michael Morse hit?
21
What will Ian Desmond's on-base percentage be?
.325
How many games will Adam LaRoche play for the Nationals?
101
Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many?
Jordan Zimmermann, 15
How many games will Drew Storen save?
33
How many games will the Nats win?
83
Hmmm, just read the latest Boswell column. We may need to find a way to make some PFB t-shrits.
Zero days! Zero days! Good luck with the maiden voyage of your cable TV, NatsLady. Maybe you should bust a bottle of the bubbly over it. Or not.
On topic, nice to see baseball predictions and all but where's the traditional Brian Zuckerman question? (Example: What position will he play in the bigs?) :-)
Wow. You guys are INCREDIBLY optimistic about Jayson Werth. He's a career .264 hitter for crying out loud.
Even in his best seasons with the Phillies he only batted .273, .268 and .296. If I were to choose the over/under of .264, I'd easily pick the under. But that doesn't mean he won't rebound from last year. I'll be happy with .250/.350/.450 and good defense.
You all are also wildly optimistic about Desmond. Again, a career .304 OBP, which you all expect him to just downright obliterate. Unless he bats something like .285-.290, there's no chance his OBP reaches .320.
I'm also surprised every single one of you didn't pick Stephen Stasburg to make the ASG. He's probably the most hyped up pitcher in the game, and hype goes much further than on-the-field performance at the ASG.
Anyway, glad it's finally Opening Day!
Ladson is generally the wild-eyed optimist, tho I guess clear-eyed and detached analysis isn't what he gets paid for.
Mark Z's predictions look much more realistic to me. If you take the average in each category, you'll probably end up close to the mark--mid-80s in the W column, for example.
The optimistic predictions are fun if taken with a large grain of salt, but dangerous if taken seriously. When the Nats are below .500 in June, all those predicting them as playoff contenders will rage about how they failed to live up to a potential they never really had in the first place--for this season, at least.
That's some serious Kool-aid being drunk by our favorite beat writers. Good for them. It must be much more fun to cover a team you are optimistic about.
Some of the more amazing predictions: Ladson predicting Desmond's OPB of .360 and every single one of the writers picking Werth to hit over .260. Wow.
And so many of them picked JZnn over SS for the ASG. Would they have done that back in January? I doubt it. I guess Spring Training means something after all.
It's opening day and optimism is king! I'm in for 88 wins, Zim, Gio, and Stras as all stars, 35 saves for Druuu, 21 wins for Gio (and 18. for Stras), 18 homers for Bryce (8 of them oppo boppos), and 2.5 million in Nats Park.
Yep, I'm all in for 2012. Go Nats!!!!
Getting serious ... I think Stephen Lombardozzi will have a greater effect on the standings than many here are willing to predict. That is if he isn't optioned to make room for someone like Morse or Ankiel.
I think he'll hit .300 +. He appears to have a more mature approach to switch hitting than does Espinosa. He foregoes power for base hits yet he appears to have decent gap power which could develop further.
And Lombo is also a rookie ...
All-Star? Tyler Clippard repeats, with Ryan joining him.
I'mwith Mark on the Harper deut date of June 19th, but only see him hitting 7 HR's this year.
Gio and Jordan will each notch 16 wins.
ALR will play in 128 games.
Attendance will be 2,750,000
Werth will hit about .265
Storen will save 37 games
Morse will hit 32 homers
Ian Desmond obp .328
Nats will give them a run, but the mid-season losing spell, and the late fade will not make up for the rest of a fine season. Strasburg will lead the league in losses-while-pitching-without-run-support, but Znn will be right behind him. Jackson, of all people, will lead the staff in wins, because he will get the run support--go figure. Zimm will pull something else this time, for at least 1 15-day DL stint. Davey will still manage better than Bobby Valentine, and get significant votes (but no award) for MOTY. Desmond will figure it out. Espinosa won't. Ramos already has--MVP votes, All Star selection. 83-78 (another rainout lost), third place, just.
Who will represent the Nats at the All-Star Game?
Wilson Ramos, on the merits
What will total home attendance be?
I think the weather will help, too. 2,497,001
When will Bryce Harper make his MLB debut?
Aug. 20, vs. Braves. The late callup for Harper means ROY in 2013. Won't be why they do it, but it'll work out like that.
How many home runs will Harper hit in the majors this season?
3
How many strikeouts will Stephen Strasburg record?
127
What will Jayson Werth's batting average be?
.266
How many home runs will Michael Morse hit?
19
What will Ian Desmond's on-base percentage be?
.329
How many games will Adam LaRoche play for the Nationals?
145. Starting at first base--about 120.
Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many?
Edwin Jackson, 16, from getting disproportionate run support as much as anything else.
How many games will Drew Storen save?
27, but he'll also blow 8. Lidge will turn out to have been Rizzo's best get of the winter (Jackson notwithstanding).
How many games will the Nats win?
83, but that's all. No puh puh. Wait til next year.
Does anyone else find Bill Ladson's writing boring/cliche and biased? This is why I am so glad I found this blog... Mark, thank you for adding some art to the art of writing.
Anonymous in Manila
Ok here we go the most positive baseball opening day since 1925. I am not going to say how I think the season will go, just like travel you know the method, the distance and the destination the fun is in the getting there. But this year the Nats have gotten rid of the cheap transport and now we just hope the testing on this one was thorough enough to reflect our expectations. See you at the park and on twitter and here in 2012. GO NATS
Prediction: Poopy_McPoop will bring his insane pro-Oriole fan postings to Nats Insider on a constant and continuing basis.
Attendance 2.5 million, more Strasburg starts, more meaningful games down the stretch, decent weather, Harper hype.
Harper's debut - agree with Kilgore, 5/16 or 17, Pirates are a lousy draw, he'll have 40 games in AAA by then, and DJ will be pushing for him.
Because he's up early in my prediction, I'll say Harper gets 13 bombs.
Stras gets 150 K's, going for contact more, but there are still a lot of guys who will be overmatched
Werth has looked better this spring, I'll bite on him getting to .275 with a bit more power.
Morse will get a bit less time with DJ keeping DeRosa sharp and nagging injuries, 23 homers.
Desmond OBP .313
122 games for LaRoche, seems like he'll have another DL stint, but I don't think they'll trade him since they will still need LH hitting and be buyers late July.
Agree with Amanda, 17 wins for Gio. He's a guy going deep enough into games to win that many. Only thing will be they'll never let that guy bat a third time.
Lidge and Rodriguez will be strong enough to work the ninth more, Storen gets 30 saves.
I'm thinking Harper is a win better than our centerfielders if he hits at least .250 when he comes up, more Zimmerman and Zimmermann, more Strasburg, still solid bullpen, better rotation depth, despite the on-base weakness at the top of the order, I think we'll be close to average offensively and defensively overall, which means the excellent and deep pitching will be able to put the team several games above .500. Having two long men means this team will be ready for extra innings, and the dog days when other clubs have tired guys and one-inning specialists with bad matchups. A short pitch-heavy or ineffective start won't use up the pen. 87 wins tied with the Reds for 2nd wildcard spot
All-stars Strasburg and Zimmerman
I love this post every year, mainly because Ladson's unflinching optimism in his picks is contagious.
Let's give it a shot, shall we?
1. All Star Rep: Ramos, Zimmerman, Strasburg
2. Home attendance:
3. Harper debut: May 14, vs. Padres
4. Harper HRs: 18
5. Strasburg Ks: 162
6. Werth BA: .276
7. Morse HRs: 23
8. Desi OBP: .317
9. LaRoche GP: 102
10. Wins Leader: Gio Gonzalez, 19
11. Storen Saves: 34
12. Wins: 87
Err...Home Attendance should read 2,404,837
(AKA Let's pull a number out of a hat!)
Soooooooooooo, none of the experts predict 90 wins or more for my Nats???
Wad a bunch of haters!!!!!
Thank God for DVR and blast this work thing on Opening Day - if Congress really wants to make a difference and mess with MLB proceedings, they need to go ahead and make this a National(s) holiday.
I'm drinking the juice 89 wins and playoffs!
Ladson is a horrible hack, I can't believe ANYONE reads him -- always a day late giving non-news or obvious updates. Seriously, does ANYONE go to him as their "first-read?"
Who peed in Sheinin's Kool-Aid?
SayNoToClint. I totally agree. Shenin's Koolaid must have been tainted with something
Ladson is okay he's kind of biased but once you get used to it ... he tries and he does have good sources. He has a lot of enthusiasm which I like and he isn't at all fake about it. I shouldn't have to defend him but someone here will think its me doing the hating ...
~peric
This is excellent. I don't know how you could reasonably rip someone for preseason predictions; it's all in good fun. Here are mine:
1. All Star Rep: Zimmerman, Strasburg, Storen (I'm thinking he'll be back by mid-April and start saving a lot of wins right away)
2. Home attendance: there's a buzz here that I've never seen before--if they contend, I bet it gets close to 3 million
3. Harper debut: June 15 vs. New York Yankees (because I think the world might end)
4. Harper HRs: with 31/2 months of playing time, I'd go with 15
5. Strasburg Ks: 187 (that's 10.5 Ks/9 over 160 innings, which isn't crazy)
6. Werth BA: .260 (but with a .380 OBP)
7. Morse HRs: 28 (same player as last year)
8. Desi OBP: .325 (not great, but that's pretty much the best you can hope for; he'd have to hit .280 to get there)
9. LaRoche GP: 140 (full season with slightly more than normal days off)
10. Wins Leader: Gio Gonzalez, 18 (that's a lot of wins these days; it could lead the league if the Phillies aren't good)
11. Storen Saves: 40
12. Wins: 89 (that could win the division)
I don't mind Ladson, he's on Twitter and usually posts his items there first. He's good-natured and sometimes quite funny. No, I don't read him first==>Mark Z is my priority, but sooner or later I get around to Ladson.
Sheinin is an Angelos lackey. Ladson is clueless.
Okay, I'll join in, why not.
My predictions:
All-Star: R Zimm, Strasburg, J Zimm
Attendance: 2,650,000
Harper debut: June 19 vs. Rays
Harper dingers: 12
Strasburg Ks: 175
Werth BA: .267
Morse dingers: 30
Desmond OBP: .320
LaRoche games played: 125
Staff wins: J Zimm, 20
Storen saves: 39
Team wins: 87
Number of Anonymous posts I don't read: 4,3782
Not on point, but don't think it has been mentioned - Kindle's Daily Deal today is Ball Four for $.99.
As to beat writers, Mark Z. is my #1 go-to guy, but I am really getting to like Amanda Comak also. I think the Times filled Zuck's shoes with a good replacement, once they got around to doing sports again.
I predict that none of the predictions matter; that's why they actually play the games.
I also predict that most, but not all, of these predictions will look silly in October.
But it sure is fun to make predictions, isn't it?
Wait a minute, I don't know what kind of number that is. Let me get my prediction right.
Anonymous posts I don't read: 4,869. (I got annoyed since posting that last one.)
Ladson's okay, but I don't look to him for authoritative info. He's frequently a bit off-base.
Instead of adding your own predictions, readers should predict which predictor is going to come closest to the truth on October 3.
I'll go with Sheinin, although he and Mark are remarkably close except on a couple of items. Not sure why Sheinin doesn't think LaRoche plays much; think Mark is a little optimistic on Harper's home runs (only 3 teenagers have hit as many as 10 in the last 50 years), and Sheinin is less bullish on Mikey Mo than Mark is. But Mark and Dave appear to be the horses to bet on in this race.
I think Spinner will have a breakout year. He has shown he can revise his approach at the plate. His last 2 ABs against the Red Sox were the kind of ABs that show the emergence of a confident patience at the plate. He did not get his pitch in the 8th, with the bags loaded, and took the walk, ignoring all but 1 of 5 pitches out of the zone.
In the 9th, with the tying run on 2nd, the count full, the pitcher did not want to walk the go-ahead run and gave Danny something over the plate, which he promptly smacked on a rope into CF with his shortened swing.
I did not see all of Espinoza's ABs this spring, but those last 2 were the best of all that I did see. That kid can be really good.
Laddie_Blah_Blah
Number of Anonymous posts I don't read: 4,3782
Its not Ladson that's clueless its "journalist" Dave. Far and away the worst coverage of anything Nats related.
All-star rep--Zimmermen(n), Strasburg Attendance--2 762 089, Harper debut--early May, Harper HRs--18, Strasburg ks--148, Werth's BA--254, Desi OBA--327, LaRoche GP--94, Win leader--Gio, Storen saves--32, Wins--91.
One more prediction--the anon who constantly puts Desi down will be, as usual, more tedious than Poopy ever was.
My guesses:
Who will represent the Nats at the All-Star Game?
Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos, and Tyler Clippard
What will total home attendance be?
2,336,457.
When will Bryce Harper make his MLB debut?
June 19 vs. Rays
How many home runs will Harper hit in the majors this season?
7
How many strikeouts will Stephen Strasburg record?
145.
What will Jayson Werth's batting average be?
.267
How many home runs will Michael Morse hit?
22
What will Ian Desmond's on-base percentage be?
.330
How many games will Adam LaRoche play for the Nationals?
115
Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many?
Jordan Zimmermann, 15
How many games will Drew Storen save?
40
How many games will the Nats win?
86
Here is my 2012 Washington Nationals predictions:
Who will represent the Nationals in the All-Star Game: Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, and Tyler Clippard.
What will total home attendance be: 2,594,648
When will Bryce Harper make his MLB debut: July 6 vs. Rockies
How many home runs will Harper hit in the majors this season: 15
How many strikeouts will Stephen Strasburg record: 140
What will Jayson Werth's batting average be: .260
How many home runs will Michael Morse hit: 24
What will Ian Desmond's on-base percentage be: .320
How many games will Adam LaRoche play for the Nationals: 126
Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many: Gio Gonzalez, 21
How many games will Drew Storen save: 42
How many games will the Nats win: 87
I'm surprised no one has posted "Best 25 Went North".
But what about the Worst 25? Where did they go? South? Class A Potomac?
(just killin' time till 2:20)
I like this picture.
Opening Day Lineups
http://twitpic.com/95wz7b
Joining the party:
1. All Star Rep: Zimmerman, Strasburg
2. Home attendance: 2.4 million
3. Harper debut: July 3 vs. Giants
4. Harper HRs: 9
5. Strasburg Ks: 125
6. Werth BA: .243
7. Morse HRs: 27
8. Desi OBP: .303
9. LaRoche GP: 72
10. Wins Leader: Gio Gonzalez, 15
11. Storen Saves: 29
12. Wins: 85, just missing playoffs, but providing lots of excitement down the stretch.
Other predictions -- Harper plays decently down the stretch, but without much power. Our top 3 pitchers are great, but the rest of the rotation is uneven. Morse comes back from injury and has an excellent season. ALR's shoulder isn't actually fully recovered and is a bigger problem than his foot. Espi figures it out; Desi doesn't. Lannan isn't traded, gets 10 starts as the yo-yo.
Can somebody please explain how the hamburgler is still allowed to cover the nationals? Desmond in the ASG with a .360 OBP???
Love to play the game!!
Before doing so, I hardly ever read Ladson but in scrolling down the predictions I thought he had overdosed on kool-aid till I came to the wins. If his other predictions come true (which they won't), we would win over 90. Also agree with Dave that Amanda is now my 2nd read after Mark with Kilgore still a solid 3rd. We have a glut of good sources now (including Nats Prospects) and it has totally taken over my retirement. I like Shenin because I think he is objective. OK my picks
All Stars - I think 3 which is huge R. Zimm, Gio and Ramos
Attendance - over 2.5 million
Harper - June 15th
Harper Homers - 12
Strasburg K's - 120
Werth's Ave. - .268 (but 90+ rbi's)
Morse HR's - 26
Desmond's - obp - .320 (kool aid flowing here)
LaRoche games - 140 - I feel he is a huge key to use making the next jump, both offensively & defensively for our other infielders
Wins - Gio with 18 J Zimm with 16 & Edwin with 15
Saves for Storen - 35 (Davey uses Lidge & Hrod)
WINS - even with all that I can't see a jump of more than 5 or 6 games so I will go 86
Go Nats!!
Just saw the Kilgore's post of the lineups.
Didn't realize that Dempster has only given up 4 ERs over 22 innings against the Nats the last 2 years. A 1.64 ERA?!
Ouch!
Nothing to do with this post but I just saw the Cubs starting lineup. There is honestly just ONE player I would trade from our lineup and that would be the SS. I realize people will scream Bradley in CF but I do not need more age in the OF and it would be temporary at best. This is just how great baseball is however because even though I think we are the superior team, anything can happen.
Go Nats
Did you perchance mean to type "Byrd" rather than "Bradley," sjm?
Off topic, but I got thinking about this last night and checked the BB Reference this morning to make sure my memory was right (It was.)
Before we consign the John Lannan story to Old Business, I have a favorite memory of his career so far. August 6, 2007. San Francisco. Lannan vs Lincecum. Both pitchers go 7 innings, each allows only one run. Giants win in the 11th. But the key thing is this: Lannan has to go into the game with one overriding goal -- Don't be the guy who throws Barry Bonds Home run #755 to tie Henry Aaron.
Bonds came up 4 times. 3 outs, one walk. A strikeout (How great that must have made John feel.) and a GIDP (Ditto.) Against the most feared hitter of the 21st century, at the height of his drug-induced powers, Lannan bore down and got the job done, while at the same time matching the great Tim Lincicum for seven (who says he never pitches more than five) innings.
The next day, Mike Bacsik gave up #755 and the day after that Tim Redding gave up #756.
If Lannan spends the rest of his career in AAA, he'll have the memory of that day (and his $5 million) to comfort him in his old age.
Eeeeeeeeeeee!
NatsLady,
I am with you on the Fish hate. Any one who followed the Expos knows Loria's role in stealing and killing baseball in Montreal and while Washington fans were the ultimate beneficiary Jeffrey Loria will always have a place in Montreal's hall of shame.
I wish him and his team nothing but bad luck and as the newness of the new stadium wears off and the usual 10,000 attendance returns watch for Loria to start flirting with other cities and their public funds.
Prediction-
Amanda will raise a fortune for the moonies by increasing wash times readership
@sjm308:
I think that is Milton Bradley's ghost that you saw in the lineup. He still haunts Wrigley, and Lou Pinella's house too.
Apparently, Lou is taking medications for it.
Ladson is a crazy peron. Demsond makes All Star team and gets on at a .360 clip?? Only if Ian hits .320 and Reyes gets hurt and Tulo gets hit by a truck and Starlin Castro falls down an elevator shaft, sll of which I guess could happen.
Here's my stab:
Who will represent the Nats at the All-Star Game? Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos
What will total home attendance be? 2,476,069
When will Bryce Harper make his MLB debut? June 3 vs. Braves
How many home runs will Harper hit in the majors this season? 10
How many strikeouts will Stephen Strasburg record? 159
What will Jayson Werth's batting average be? .273
How many home runs will Michael Morse hit? 23
What will Ian Desmond's on-base percentage be? .323
How many games will Adam LaRoche play for the Nationals? 108
Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many? Jordan Zimmermann, 16
How many games will Drew Storen save? 33
How many games will the Nats win? 86
Who will represent the Nats at the All-Star Game?
Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos
What will total home attendance be?
3,105,000
When will Bryce Harper make his MLB debut?
May 4 vs. Philadelphia
How many home runs will Harper hit in the majors this season?
22
How many strikeouts will Stephen Strasburg record?
166
What will Jayson Werth's batting average be?
.266
How many home runs will Michael Morse hit?
25
What will Ian Desmond's on-base percentage be?
.337
How many games will Adam LaRoche play for the Nationals?
125
Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many?
Gio Gonzalez 17
How many games will Drew Storen save?
38
How many games will the Nats win?
85
I'm still reeling a bit from Mark Z's prediction that the Marlins will finish ahead of the Nats and in the playoffs. I'm not sure how signing a medicore starter and a declining closer, and creating contention at SS by signing an oft-injured 'star' in the one position you don't need leads to a playoff appearance. Maybe its the Vegas girls and the pinball machine in the outfield.
Here are my predictions:
Who will represent the Nats at the All-Star Game?
Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Michael Morse
What will total home attendance be?
3,000,000. They got 30,000 for an exhibition game in the middle of the week. Good times are ahead.
When will Bryce Harper make his MLB debut?
July 17 vs. Mets.
How many home runs will Harper hit in the majors this season? 8
How many strikeouts will Stephen Strasburg record? 140. in 160 innings.
What will Jayson Werth's batting average be?
.280
How many home runs will Michael Morse hit? 40.
What will Ian Desmond's on-base percentage be?
.301
How many games will Adam LaRoche play for the Nationals? 155
Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many? Gio Gonzalez 19
How many games will Drew Storen save? 45
How many games will the Nats win? 91 wins. Division title. Ty Wigginton and an over 40 Jim Thome is not good enough for the Phillies to remain on top.
Play ball! :-)
what did Mr Ladson drink before making these predictions?
I heard Ladson had a cold beer.
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