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US Presswire photo Jesus Flores is now hitting a robust .414 in the Venezuelan winter league. |
The 24-year-old intends to start playing for the Aragua Tigres on Wednesday, honoring his commitment to suit up for his winter ball club. His return to the diamond surely will make for an emotional scene, but he's hoping it quickly transforms into just another night at the ballpark and he can pick up where things left off before. We can only wait and see if that's going to be possible.
In the meantime, there are a few baseball-related notes to pass along this Monday morning...
Ramos' catching teammate and fellow countryman Jesus Flores continues to rake at the plate. After missing one game with what he termed "discomfort" in his right leg, Flores hasn't missed a beat. He's got four hits (not to mention three RBI) in his last seven at-bats, and he's now hitting a stout .414 to lead the Venezuelan league. ...
Meanwhile, in the Arizona Fall League, Bryce Harper was finally held hitless. With an 0-for-3 showing Saturday, the Scottsdale Scorpions outfielder saw his 16-game hitting streak come to an end. Pretty impressive run for the 19-year-old, who in 22 overall games is batting .310 with a .372 on-base percentage, six homers, 25 RBI and a .979 OPS. ...
And the Hot Stove League is beginning to heat up, especially in the NL East. The Phillies signed Jonathan Papelbon to a staggering four-year, $50 million contract, hoping the former Boston closer can solidify the back end of their bullpen in place of Ryan Madson, who is now a free agent. I know there's been some speculation that the Nationals could be after Madson, with Jayson Werth serving as something of a recruiting coordinator. I'm not saying there's no chance of this happening, but I do believe the chances are very slim. I've never heard Mike Rizzo or Davey Johnson suggest they aren't happy with Drew Storen as their closer, and I can't imagine they'd pay Madson $40 million or more to be a setup man. ...
Elsewhere in the NL East, the newly re-branded Miami Marlins -- by the way, have you seen their new logo and uniforms? Yikes -- are hot in pursuit of some of the biggest names on the open market. They hosted Albert Pujols on Friday, making a strong pitch to the game's best player. And rumors were swirling yesterday that they were on the verge of signing Jose Reyes. No deal is in place yet, but Miami certainly is trying to make a major splash as it opens its new ballpark and tries to alter the franchise's identity.
71 comments:
I don't think the Fish would be able to land BOTH Reyes and Pujols and say a pitcher like Buerhle. I think they could do Reyes/Buerhle, but not Pujols. Then the speculation will turn to what does Pujols think of his new manager?
Good to be back to baseball commentary again. And it's great that Wilson is home and safe.
I can't see the Marlins landing ANY of the big free agents. Talk here is their first offer to Reyes only covered 3 years guaranteed. Loria is strictly putting on a show to drum up interest. Javier Vasquez decided to retire because he wanted to be close to home or no where and his experience with the Marlins management led him to "no where".
I still believe Rizzo is going to work out a trade that will have all of us saying "didn't see that coming".
And finally, I want to express my admiration for how the whole Ramos situation was handled by the the Nats and MLB. When Rizzo signed up as GM he signed up for alot of unknowns and this certainly wasn't in the manual. My hope is that the experience allows the entire Nationals organization to reflect upon how blessed they are to be involved professionally in the wonderful game of baseball and truly enjoy each day they have with their loved ones and each other.
GYFNG
And when I say in the manual, I mean the GM's manual because MLB does have something on this in their manual.
This would be a cinematic ending to the Wilson Ramos story, dropping the ball at the plate in the seventh game of the 2012 World Series and the opposing team winning on a walk-off fly ball after a perfect throw to the plate by Bryce Harper...
I'm with NatsJack with kudos to the Nats and MLB for how they handled the situation, right down to the hot chocolate at the centerfield gate.
I would not be surprised to hear that money changed hands (I heard report of a tip about the location of the remote farmhouse), but bear in mind that we do that all the time here, offering rewards for tipsters, and we don't call them bribes. I doubt the kidnappers or their bosses were paid off, however, as that would only further encourage the "industry."
One of the most discouraging items in the reporting was that there used to be 28 MLB baseball academies in Venezuela, and now there are only eight. The Dominican is considered a better resource for baseball recruiting, and we know what happened there. Don't want to bring in a lot of politics here, but I hope the administration in VZ will re-evaluate some policies to improve law enforcement, keep players and their families safe so that academies and winter baseball can thrive there.
Go, Wilson Ramos. Go, Nats!
Any chance of coverage of the game Wednesday? I am sure that he is going to get a huge reception - he was a local hero even before this. I do hope that baseball is his comfort zone and helps him to heal.
I suspect it's a given that there will be plenty of media at Wednesday's game and thus plenty of coverage. I echo the thoughts of NatsJack and NatsLady on how MLB and the Nats handled a delicate and tense situation.
For me it's kinda hard to get excited about transactions at this point, but I don't tend to be an armchair GM type anyway. I *will* say this: Go, Ramos! Go, Tigres! Go, NATS!!
What are the chances that the Nats make that Reyes/Buerhle deal?
The new Fish logo was designed to be seen with sun glasses only.
Bet they can't play as flashy as they're gonna look!!!
For me, I like the simple look,e.g. Curly W, NY, etc.
Meanwhile, in the Arizona Fall League, Bryce Harper was finally held hitless. With an 0-for-3 showing Saturday, the Scottsdale Scorpions outfielder saw his 16-game hitting streak come to an end. Pretty impressive run for the 19-year-old, who in 22 overall games is batting .310 with a .372 on-base percentage, six homers, 25 RBI and a .979 OPS. ...
_____________________________________________
It was only a 7 inning game so Bryce would have had at least one more chance to continue towards continuing that hit streak if they played a full 9.
Mark Z said:
Meanwhile, in the Arizona Fall League, Bryce Harper was finally held hitless. With an 0-for-3 showing Saturday, the Scottsdale Scorpions outfielder saw his 16-game hitting streak come to an end. Pretty impressive run for the 19-year-old, who in 22 overall games is batting .310 with a .372 on-base percentage, six homers, 25 RBI and a .979 OPS. ...
One very serious negative on the young Mr. Harper: He has 5 errors in only 22 games, which is an obscene number for an outfielder. Keep in mind, that is just the errors that he has been charged with, it doesn't include miscues not resulting in charged errors. Those numbers alone indicate that he's not ready for prime time yet.
However, the unis pale in comparison to the home run feature - the word craptular comes to mind. (What? That is a word, right?) You'll need more than sunglasses for that one. Sweet Baby James, what were they thinking?
NatStat said...
The new Fish logo was designed to be seen with sun glasses only.
Bet they can't play as flashy as they're gonna look!!!
The Marlins are attempting to make a big splash as they move into their new stadium. Too bad the Lerners didn't think of that when the Nats moved into Nationals Park. They blew a golden opportunity to broaden their fan base.
Oh, wait. That would be "craptacular."
the word craptular comes to mind. (What? That is a word, right?)
natsfan1a: I'd go with craptastic.
Flores had a great tweet yesterday. Rough translation via Google (which I'd never used as much as during the Ramos kidnapping): "I have spent frustrating moments off the field game. Mentally stronger now. I'm not going to let happen again JF # 26"
That's a motivated young man.
I am pretty sure even Stevie Wonder would have to shield his eyes...
------------------------------------
NatStat said...
The new Fish logo was designed to be seen with sun glasses only.
Bet they can't play as flashy as they're gonna look!!!
For me, I like the simple look,e.g. Curly W, NY, etc.
I'm with Joe; the word you wanted there was "craptastic."
But you could go with "crapuscular" if you're feeling high-culture.
If the Marlins played anywhere other than Miami I would wrinkle my nose up at the new uni's. They are colorful and really a reflection of the Miami scene, at least the times I've visited there.
Happy to see Flores do well, should give him some confidence going into next year.
Give them some credit--it takes a real piece of work to make the old Astros' pajamas look composed.
captcha: "ruche" -- the one thing they forgot to add, there
They're going to need a good rug to really pull that locker room together.
I hope we can keep Flores along with Ramos, at least for this year. Flores is goig to be an everyday catcher--and a good one--if he can stay healthy. Without Flores, I don't see the Nats catching as deep as others do.
Can we start a petition to open a stand at Nats Park with the corn cakes from Venezuela? They sound yummy.
Was thinking we might package Flores in a trade for that elusive lead-off/OF. But now I'm thinking we might want to keep him for at least a year longer, especially with his bat heating up. Never can have too many pitchers or catchers.
I am glad to see Wilson is safe at home and Jesus is hitting well in the VWL. All of this combined with Norris's prowess at the plate in the AFL, makes for a pleasant dilemma for Mr. Rizzo either in late 2012 or spring training 2013.
@ natsfan1a
Thanks for the additions to my baseball vocabularly! Craptacular, craptastic. Loria should have stuck to selling goofy art works, which is what the craptastic HR feature seems to remind me of.
I'd like to see a walk-off HR by a Nats against the Fish, with a HR feature of Loria with an Expo cap pulled over his face!
On a more positive note, wad about Flo rockn' in VWL??? Is that a good RH bat off the bench/backup C or what? Better to have him than trade him!
As an editor and marketing writer, I can say that "craptacular," "craptastic," and "crapuscular" are all perfectly cromulent words.
Obviously the Marlins want to make a splash n a year that they are moving to a new ballpark where attendace will go from 3,000 to 30,000 and signing some great Latin free agents to play in Little Havana makes for a smart business move for Mr. Loria, who despite his displicable moves concerning the Expos, is a very smart businessman. I would not be surprised to see them sign Reyes and move Ramirez to 3B (which was a hole for them all last season) and add a CJ Wilson or Buehrle to the rotation.
As far as Madson is concerned, it would be great to add him to the roster but not at $40 million.
natsfan1a said...
However, the unis pale in comparison to the home run feature - the word craptular comes to mind. (What? That is a word, right?) You'll need more than sunglasses for that one. Sweet Baby James, what were they thinking?
November 14, 2011 8:47 AM
That looks like a water fountain taken out of Liberace's home in Las Vegas.
Its a joke, right? If it is for real, the Marlins players may boycott hitting HRs.
I wondered about that, too, when I first heard of it, but evidently it's real (shudder).
My opinion on this Marlins push for all the big Free Agents is very reminscent of what Angelos has done for years. Get your name attached to the Free Agents, put in a 1/2 baked bid, don't get the player and let the Fanbase know you tried.
I do believe the Marlins, for credibility, need to find someone. My guess it will be Ivan Rodriguez and Livan Hernandez.
In the meantime, they are pushing Luxury suites, advertising, sponsorships, season tickets, etc. Many that are caught up in the hype will bite on it, hook, line & sinker (same way you catch a Marlin).
Marlins new mascot has been leaked
http://twitter.com/?photo_id=1#!/its_gail/status/135195123570049024/photo/1
So does this mean that the Nats are no longer in contention for acquiring Buehrle, Reyes, or Fielder?
natsfan1a said...
I wondered about that, too, when I first heard of it, but evidently it's real (shudder).
November 14, 2011 10:28 AM
The description in the article is a little more critical of my Liberacé description:
"...the absolutely insane robotic structure the Marlins plan to install in their new stadium. It's like someone vomited a bunch of cliché South Florida imagery on a Guy Harvery shirt after a rough night on South Beach and then motorized it."
Sounds like they are calling it "artwork". I know beauty is in the eyes of the beholder, but whoa.......
Here is Jayson's Stark's thoughts on the Nats and the Free Agent pitchers:
"...But on the pitching front, one exec who spoke with them says he believes that in a perfect world, they'd prefer Mark Buehrle over either C.J. Wilson or Roy Oswalt, the two starters they've been most linked to on the rumor mill."
It would be a shame if the Nats didn't scoop up Coco Crisp and Mark Buehrle sooner than later. Even if someone better comes along for the outfield, the Nats would at least have Crisp who would fit in well as an expensive back-up and give the Nats the best option they have had since Alfonso Soriano at leadoff.
I'm not saying Crisp is the "man". It is hard to get excited about a .320's OBP guy, but it is a huge improvement and his theft ability is best the team has ever had. He is a big step up from Nyjer Morgan in my opinion and a switch hitter.
Buehrle is the type that can keep the bullpen fresh and be a leader. A mid 3.50's ERA guy April to August can help propel this team to the playoffs. I still believe he pitches better in the NL East. His interleague W/L is the best in MLB history.
The big -if- here is---can the offense respond to score 4 1/3 runs on average per game to allow the Nats starters to earn some W's in 2012.
Mark Z.. are you going to the GM Meetings?
NatsJack, any updates from FIL? Any Rendon sitings?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/nationals-watch/2011/nov/14/few-thoughts-wilson-ramos-said-its-time-move/
Back to Wilson Ramos for a second, seems the 4 Colombians have not been caught & as Andrew said in the last post, Ramos had just purchased a new home in Valencia which is confirmed in the article that his plans are to stay in Venezuela.
Crisp
Desmond
Werth
Zimmerman
LaRoche
Morse
Ramos
Espinosa
pitcher
I'm just not feeling 4-1/3 runs per game there. I see too many streaky hitters and 15-day DLs. Just a feeling.
I think it is a no-brainer that the Marlins bring in Livo and Pudge on 1 year contracts, but it remains to be seen if they can land a big fish like Reyes or Pujols
Sec 3, I pencil it up like this:
Crisp CF
Werth RF
Zimmerman 3B
Morse LF
LaRoche 1B
Desmond SS
Espinosa 2B
Ramos C
Pitcher
So much hinges on LaRoche's health and everyone else for that matter. The depth at the MLB ready level still isn't great for position players. That is one reason I think a Coco Crisp fits right as he can go to more of a bench role if Rizzo sees Bryce Harper as ready in 2012.
The Nats can NOT let the Marlins out splash them this winter. Just can't let it happen.
Love the puns. The Marlins won't get Pujols. They can catch Reyes and then decide what to do with Hanley.
The Top 7 offenses last year were:
St Louis - Pujols
Cincy - Votto
Rockies - CarGo
Ariz - JUpton
Brewers - Braun/Fielder
Mets - Reyes
Philly - RHoward
There are a lot of question marks with those offenses for 2012.
Arizona's OF in 2011 had JUpton with a .369 OBP, Parra with a .357 OBP, and Chris Young .331 OBP.
Their catcher Montero was at a .351 and roving infielder Ryan Roberts had a .341 OBP.
They made that pitching staff look so much better with the run support although that didn't explain the big improvement in pitching.
In contrast Gerardo Parra was a .308 OBP in 2010. Almost everyone moved up their OBPs from 2010 to 2011 in a double digit improvement. The biggest change was the turnaround in their pitching.
Was it coaching?
Steve M.
It's not really useful to speculate on what happened in Venezuela; I never really believed the official version because it seemed too 'TV movie' to be real. Let's just be glad Wilson is safe and unharmed.
NatsJack,
It would be classic Loria if the Marlins pretend to be in on all the FA's and end up signing no one of note just to sell luxury boxes. I for one never believed in the power of new stadiums to resurrect bad franchises; sure you get a spike for a year or 2 but in the end only the real baseball fans come back and they don't have many.
Steve M.
The trouble with Buehrle is that he seems to be in high demand meaning you will have to overpay him in years and dollars by a lot. I wouldn't go there. There are a lot of top of the rotation and middle of the rotation pitchers brewing in our system; we just need to bridge our way to them. I don't think we need to sign a FA pitcher to 4 years and that's what I think it will take to get Buehrle.
Would love to see Reyes and Rameriz on the same team. That would be one cancer ridden locker room! Throw in Elijah Dukes and you'd really have a show
Trade for Nyjer and its a reeeaal show
What's the over/under on the Marlins' new home-run-celebratory feature being sold to a mini-golf course in Ft. Lauderdale when the new MLB commissioner bans it under the 'best interests of baseball' clause?
Scratch off Matt Kemp off of the 2012 Free Agent list. Looks like he is close to signing an 8 year deal.
Been thinking about the Papelbon contract, and what it might mean for relievers. While it is a horrible contract for the team in my view, I see it making Philly a little better than resigning Madson (meaning I see Papelbon producing better over the next 4 years, although not markedly so). Philly does look like they are going to enter payroll hell one of these years with all their contracts, but they are a pretty resourceful group so maybe they figure a way to transition.
But it got me thinking that the reliever market may be way out of hand, cost wise, and as a believer generally that smart teams should try to exploit market inefficiencies, I think that the Nats should at least see what Storen or Clip would fetch in a trade as a premier reliever under several years of reasonable cost control. If you could trade Storen for Bourjos, or maybe Ellsbury (I know he has limited team control left, but I assume that a trade like this doesn't happen unless you can extend him), don't you have to at least think about it? What if we could trade him for a starter like Danks or Billingsly? I would probably do any of those, but at a minimum, I think that we should know what the options are.
Jd, the talent level in this FA class is really small which supply and demand will drive up prices. You can't walk away from Buehrle due to the price. Someone will overpay by $3 to $4 mill a year on a 3 year deal and eat roughly $10 million.
That's still much less than the money they flushed away on Austin Kearns.
I think we'd be just nuts to get Madson when we have Clip and Store. You wouldn't demote Madson to a middle-reliever or even set up guy. And we HAVE the best set-up man in Clip, and an honest-to-goodness big league closer in Storen. We should spend the money where it will do us some good.
Second the corn cake stand at Nats park!
Mark'd said...
Jd, the talent level in this FA class is really small which supply and demand will drive up prices. You can't walk away from Buehrle due to the price. Someone will overpay by $3 to $4 mill a year on a 3 year deal and eat roughly $10 million.
That's still much less than the money they flushed away on Austin Kearns.
November 14, 2011 12:42 PM
Mark'd said...
Jd, the talent level in this FA class is really small which supply and demand will drive up prices. You can't walk away from Buehrle due to the price. Someone will overpay by $3 to $4 mill a year on a 3 year deal and eat roughly $10 million.
That's still much less than the money they flushed away on Austin Kearns.
November 14, 2011 12:42 PM
Mark'd, I agree with you. If you are going to get your talent in Free Agency, it is time to pay.
I thought the Papelbon deal was a little strange in that it was done so early in the Free Agent signing period and it didn't appear the market values were set at that point.
Jim Hoy, you have embiggened this blog with that comment.
Jim Hoy said...
As an editor and marketing writer, I can say that "craptacular," "craptastic," and "crapuscular" are all perfectly cromulent words.
Mark'd, Steve M.
To me you don't justify a bad FA deal just because others are doing it; as well using Kearns as an example doesn't mean anything.
Every player has a value based on how many wins he can be expected to add to the team; paying over that means you have to take away money elsewhere; after all one always operates within a budget.
This is why the FA market is usually a fool's market where you pay for what a player has done (plus plus) and not for what he will do forward. The far better way is smart trades (like what Wally is suggesting) and the amateur draft.
Wally,
You are 1000% right. As much as we love Clip and Storen; as relievers they can only change so many games in a year vs. other less celebrated relievers. Tampa flipped their entire bullpen and their overall results didn't suffer much in 2011.
Given the inflated cost of relievers these days what we have is a gold mine in value and it's absolutely valid and even smart to consider cashing in some of this value.
jd, it isn't justification, just the way it is. If the Nats want to improve, they will have to sign a FA or 2 or make some trades. Holding firm and crowing about the cost of doing business is what loser teams do.
To get Buehrle or Oswalt, they will pay over market on them. It is the cost of doing business. I never said I liked it. This wouldn't have made sense 2 seasons ago, but now that the Nats are on the door-step, they have to climb inside. Its much better than the precipice they were on a few years ago.
Rizzo, JUST DO IT!
SteveM - I don't mind a $$ overpay on a shorter term contract: 2 years, maybe 3. If Oswalt cost 2/$25m instead of 2/$20m, fine. Our payroll profiles well - pretty low right now for the rest of the team, but Zim, Werth, Stras, Ramos, Espy, Morse all will be getting expensive by 2014/15. But if the market starts adding years, especially multiple years, then I might pass. It all depends on specifics, of course, but those kinds of deals can really hurt a franchise for a while. For instance, I heard speculation today that Wilson will get 5 years with maybe a 6th year vesting option. I'd pass. I'd go 2 for Oswalt, 3 for Buehrle, and maybe 4 for Jackson or Wilson.
I agree that the Nats are in a position to be bold, but I would offer two shopping guidelines: (i) we should really make sure that the FA is a better player than what we already have, rather than the 'best of what's out there'; sounds obvious, but I think GMs make this mistake quite a bit. when you get past the top 10 or so, I am not sure that those guys are better than what we have; and (ii) I don't think any pitcher in this crop is worth more than 4 years, so I would focus more on length of contract than AAV.
I am starting to sour on FA because I think prices may get crazy for moderately good players (basing a lot on the Papelbon deal + rumors). I really hope that Rizzo is working the trade lines, in addition to free agency. We have depth at some valuable commodities right now, the way the market is breaking: cheap and controllable back end starters to fill out a rotation, good, cheap and controllable relievers, and cheap and controllable MI (and maybe good?).
Steve M. said...
NIKE!
I know about some of the trauma Wilson Ramos has been under. I had a very bad experience in northern Georgia about forty years ago. The pain and anguish will subside. But it will take time.
Jim Hoy and SayNo, exxxcelllent. (Oh, and release the hounds.)
The Phillies will regret the Papelbon deal. Been following Boston for years, and as good as "Pap" could be, he's also something of a head case.
MLB did a very interesting segment the other day on what's happened with the "moneyball" phenomenon. (I just read the book and saw the movie.) Boston got into that mode early by hiring Bill James. Theo Epstein was a disciple. MLB's take was that some teams (like Boston) have lost sight of the original concept and have made some bad moves (Dice-K, Lackey and Crawford, in Boston's case--but you could add Howard and Papelbon for Philly.)
What this means for the Nats is hard to say. What about Werth? Going out after big names that may or may not be worth it? The core of the Red Sox is still their home-grown talent: Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis, Lester, Buchholz, Lowrie. Those are the guys who will keep them where they have been. (Forget September--an aberration overblown by the always vicious Boston media.)
If there's anything to take from the history of MLB in this century, it's "start young, be patient, build from within." I would be happy if the Nats spent every dime on locking up our core, and investing the rest in development.
Ned Beatty said...
I know about some of the trauma Wilson Ramos has been under. I had a very bad experience in northern Georgia about forty years ago. The pain and anguish will subside. But it will take time.
I hear primal oink therapy can work wonders.
Just a follow up on some local views of the kiddnapping. The link is in English:
http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/111114/an-inexperienced-band-abducted-wilson-ramos-authorities-say
I expect we'll find out whether the Nats get another pitcher or a CF in about 10 days or so.
I expect they'll sign Oswalt to compete for a starting slot. Perhaps they'll trade Lannan et al for a backup CF which makes no sense since they already have three pretty decent possibilities in Ankiel, Bernadina, and Brown. All left-handed hitters. With Harper in the outfield picture there's no room for Werth except in center field. Last year's best hitter is stuck in left field unless LaRoche is a part of a trade package.
On Harper. I think he needs more seasoning but I trust Davey Johnson will know how to give him that at the major league level. I wouldn't have trusted Riggleman with him. Under the heading of so soon we forget? Remember when two of the three starting outfielders were Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes? Let anyone here state that either of those two were better choices than using Harper now. There's two productive reasons for keeping Harper with Randy Knorr: He might learn to be a .400 hitter someday. Would more minors experience give him that? He would become a far better outfielder ... but wait didn't Josh Willingham, bad knees and all, convert from catcher to outfielder when he came to the majors? That may also be a future part-time spot for one Derrick Norris as well!
So, what's left folks? His age. Davey seems pretty confident about that ... so why not give ol' Davey what he wants. Move Werth to center while providing 1-2 competent backups behind him.
Sec 3, I pencil it up like this:
Crisp CF
Werth RF
Zimmerman 3B
Morse LF
LaRoche 1B
Desmond SS
Espinosa 2B
Ramos C
Pitcher
However, unless you think D. Johnson is a sideshow clown and nothing
he says is relevant then its going to be:
Desmond SS - Lombardozzi backup
Espinosa 2B - Lombardozzi backup
Zimmerman 3B - Lombardozzi backup
Morse LF - Ankiel, Bernadina, Brown backup
Werth CF - Ankiel, Bernadina, Brown backup
Harper RF - Ankiel, Bernadina, Brown backup
LaRoche 1B - Tyler Moore, Marrero backup
Ramos C - Jesus Flores, Jhonatan Solano backup
Pitcher.
Oldguy,
The 'moneyball' mode really had several different -- albeit inter-related -- elements. One was, of course, the focus on non-traditional (at the time) stats and how they might better explain how runs are produced and wins achieved. That's obviously what the moviemakers chose to focus on. Another key element was to acknowledge the greater predictive value of university-level competitive stats, while simultaneously being much more careful about drafting high school players based on inflated stats and the eyes of old-time scouts. But the fundamental premise, akin to 'value' investing in stocks, was to figure out what skills or attributes were undervalued or overvalued at any given time, i.e., to identify and then take advantage of the inefficiencies in the market. But those mis-valued skills will change over time, as teams bid up the price on one or more 'ability' (e.g., OBP, WHIP) while letting the price fall on skills that had previously been overvalued (we're seeing this happen with one-dimensional hitters in the AL as the price for bat-only DHs keeps falling).
When you say "Boston got into that mode early..." I think you mean mainly the first element: recognizing that counting stats (for hitters) and ERA and W-L record (for pitchers) can only take you so far. What Boston doesn't do -- clearly -- is worry too much about the over-valued/under-valued bit. Or, maybe said a little differently, Boston (and Philly with Papelbon's contract) are more than willing to contribute to the over-valuation of whatever skill-set they need in any given offseason. And that's fine for a rich team, that isn't worried about its payroll.
But relief pitchers (not limited to closers) have been going up in value for several years now, and it would appear that the reliever market is in the process of completely divorcing itself from reality. At some point, that bubble will burst, just like the tech and housing bubbles burst in the U.S. economy.
Until then, if the Nats are smart, they'll stay out of the FA market (say 'no' to Madson, please, regardless of what you do with Storen) and listen to offers for some of our better (or even worse) relievers. I'm not suggesting that the Nats actively shop Storen, but he and Clippard (and probably even Rodriquez) may attract some can't-ignore offers. And as we hear and read rumors about such discussions, let's remember that putting the team together is a huge, multi-variable equation. Rizzo (or any GM) would be negligent if he didn't listen to offers for even his most popular players. And 'listening' (or even 'shopping') certainly is the same thing as 'agreeing'.
Rizzo (or any GM) would be negligent if he didn't listen to offers for even his most popular players. And 'listening' (or even 'shopping') certainly is the same thing as 'agreeing'.
They likely lost Cole Kimball permanently and gave up on Adam Carr so I sincerely doubt that Rizzo will seriously consider any offers on Clippard, Storen, HRod, Mattheus won't be going anywhere ...
However Balester, Stammen, and Lannan might be in trades. With lefty Josh Smoker now a Fangraph's "sleeper" plus Rafael Martin and Hassan Pena there likely are more on the way to replace both Kimball and Carr.
The Nats really only need a veteran reliever to stabilize a young bullpen. I don't consider Clippard, Storen, Mattheus and even H-Rod all that young anymore. With Gorzelanny rounding them out on the left-side it begs the question as to whether another lefty specialist might be needed. If Detwiler doesn't start he might provide that.
In any case I think Madson is a righty.
One point more on shopping relievers around, just to see what happens: Rizzo would benefit from finding out what deals are out there, I agree, but we would not, for it to be effective--probably just the opposite, in fact, since negotiating business deals in the press is generally not a good strategy. Just sayin.
Eugene - well said.
I think the reliever market also implies we ought to bring back Gorzy, even at $2.5m or so. He was pretty effective in the pen, both here and with CHC. A veteran lefty on the market probably gets two years and maybe $6-8m total. I think SF signed a guy like Gorzy to something like that. We could probably trade him if we don't want to keep him for that price (although I would keep him).
The problem with Crisp is that Harper looks better ... most especially OBP wise? Why would would you spend money on an expensive backup when you already have Bernadina, Brown, and perhaps Ankiel? And Ankiel and Brown are better defensively.
Harper might actually be the best lead-off since Soriano if we use Soriano as the yardstick? So Crisp makes no sense given Davey Johnson's desire to move forward and attempt to win with the youth currently within the organization. He's not Acta and he's certainly not Riggleman.
The problem with Buehrle is that what if Detwiler is ready? How about Tommy Milone? They still have Gorzelanny. And there's John Lannan. Plus Solis could be ready at some point this year.
Therefore, he probably makes absolutely no sense from the current Nats manager's perspective. And he wants a multi-year contract and he's likely pretty expensive.
Stark doesn't know what he's talking about ... I believe Rizzo when he says he plans some trades. Rizzo still has a problem ... if Johnson wants Harper in his outfield ... and Johnson wants to use Detwiler as a starter?
There's no holes there, no position for Buehrle or Crisp.
Eugene.
Right on. That's what the MLB guys said--Boston, Philly, NY have enough money to ignore the "rules." We don't--unless the Lerners are willing to spend a whole lot on what are ultimately guesses. In the end, I think that's self-defeating, and if you spend tons and don't win, a lot can go sour.
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