Monday, November 26, 2012

Hot Stove ready to ignite at last

US Presswire file photo
Mike Rizzo has plenty of options as he seeks to bolster his roster.
Technically speaking, the baseball offseason began the moment the San Francisco Giants wrapped up a four-game whitewashing of the Detroit Tigers in the World Series. That was 29 days ago.

In reality, the offseason has barely registered a blip on anyone's radar screen to this point. Yes, free agency kicked off five days after the Fall Classic ended. But do you know how many of the sport's 175 free agents have signed contracts so far? Twenty-one. That's all.

Baseball, as everyone knows, likes to take its time. This is the rare sport, of course, that doesn't feature a clock. So it's only appropriate that it always takes a while for the offseason to kick into high gear.

That time, though, has finally come. Thanksgiving has come and gone, the annual Winter Meetings begin one week from today and the Hot Stove League is ready at last to ignite.

You'll start reading more and more rumors in the days ahead, which players are in discussions with which clubs. You may see a handful of free agents sign deals before anyone arrives in Nashville on Sunday. You'll certainly see a smorgasbord of activity once those Winter Meetings commence at the massive Opryland Resort and Convention Center.

And you'll probably hear the Nationals mentioned as much as almost any franchise in the game, a clear departure from previous offseasons when they existed mostly on the periphery of all the action.

What do the Nationals need? It's been well-documented since mid-October, but let's run through it all again, in order of greatest need...

1. ADAM LAROCHE
So much of the Nats' offseason hinges upon the veteran first baseman. If he returns to D.C., the lineup is set. If he goes elsewhere, the dominoes start falling all over the place, with Michael Morse likely shifting to first base and the club then deciding if it wants to simply give left field to Tyler Moore or pursue a free agent center fielder like Michael Bourn or B.J. Upton and shift Bryce Harper to left field (or Harper to right field and Jayson Werth to left field).

Very little has come to light about the LaRoche market, but this much is certain: The Nationals would happily give their 2012 MVP two guaranteed years at a healthy sum. The question is whether they would be willing to give him three guaranteed years, and if not, whether another club (ie. the Red Sox, Orioles or Rangers) would then be able to swoop him away.

Look for more clarity in this dilemma over the next week or two, with the market perhaps defining itself better to the point LaRoche can finally make his decision and the Nationals can finally proceed with their larger offseason plan.

2. A NO. 5 STARTER
If ever there was a good winter to be in need of a reliable, veteran starter, this is it. There are no shortage of available options via free agency, only a question of how high the Nationals want to set their sets and how much money they're willing to spend to bolster what may already be the majors' best rotation.

At the top end of the spectrum are Zack Greinke and Dan Haren. In the middle of the pack are Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, Ryan Dempster and Brandon McCarthy. Further down the list are Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum and Carl Pavano.

And then, of course, there's John Lannan (still under the Nationals' control though now out of minor-league options) and Christian Garcia (who may be converted to a starter next spring).

If the Nationals are dead-set on acquiring one of the big names, they may try to be aggressive and get something done in short order. If they're content to pick from among the rest of the litter, they could take their sweet time and find themselves a better bargain once the dust has settled.

3. A LEFT-HANDED RELIEVER (OR TWO)
Sean Burnett and Michael Gonzalez are both free agents. Either (or both) could re-sign, though Burnett may command a three-year commitment along the lines of the contract the Giants gave Jeremy Affeldt to stay in San Francisco through 2015.

Who else is out there? There aren't many other quality lefties on the open market. Veterans Randy Choate and J.P. Howell are probably the best of the bunch, which could put some added pressure on the Nationals to at least re-sign Burnett or Gonzalez.

66 comments:

baseballswami said...

This is kind of ho-hum. Lots of options already available. It's nice not to be operating from a place of desperation. Should be interesting. Anyone read Davey's quotes about ALR cattle? Seriously, Davey is one crazy dude.

MicheleS said...

Your morning koolaid from Boz

Gonat said...

I think Mark laid this all out well and the dominos and alternatives.

Friday is the non-tender deadline and will affect Lannan and Flores.

baseballswami said...

I was checking out the end of the season Fangraphs outfielder ratings from a twitter link. Interesting. Bryce Harper is rated 24, ahead of Pagan, Reddick and Pence, among many, many others. Morse is at 69, ahead of Span ( who many posters wanted to sign last year) and Francoer. I think it's an all-around rating, not just defense. Still interesting. We already have a lot of very good players. We often under-value some of our own players also.

Faraz Shaikh said...

Swami, can you please post link to that rating?

I think Span is a better defensive OF and not too far behind offensively. Of course his offense does not rely on power, unlike Morse. If front office thinks that Desmond can fill Morse's role by hitting fifth, I would like to see a better defensive OF and Span would be a good candidate for that role (Braves probably want to replace Bourn with him). He can hit lead-off, even though he does not have a true lead-off speed. He also does not K as much as other Nats players (0.77 career BB/K rate).

Span, Werth, RZ, ALR, Desi, Harper, Danny, C is a good lineup I think.

Theophilus T. S. said...

The Boz piece is interesting but includes a lot of what I would call "head fakes" by Rizzo and Johnson. E.g., Skole being ready for a major-league call up in 2013. I do believe the dis-sing of Bourne and Upton, though maybe some of that is because it mirrors my thinking. I do wish someone -- inside the organization or out -- would offer a more extended evaluation of Skole because I'd really like to know how (and, really, whether) he has evolved so quickly from a "good hitter and cigar store Indian in the infield" experiment at 1B into the 1B of the future.

The basic point of the article, and Mark's comments, is correct: no major moves are necessary and much of the avaricious speculation on NI is contra the realities.

The one interesting sub-question -- and probably not of great consequence -- is, if you take the playoff roster as pretty much the base, who takes LaRoche's spot if he decides to go elsewhere?

Theophilus T. S. said...

The one nuance Boswell does not address is how La Roche's departure would create a L/R imbalance in the starting lineup. Were Harper to sit as the only LH in the middle of the order, a lot of RH pitchers would just pitch around him. As I said, the comments from R&J include a number of head fakes. Maybe they are very confident they will be able to reel in LaRoche w/ two expensive years and an option and buy-out.

fast eddie said...

Here's the career stats for the lefty relievers that Mark mentions:
Choate--4.02ERA 1.34WHIP (6 teams, 36 yrs. old)
JP Howell--4.42ERA 1.39WHIP
Gonzalez--2.94ERA 1.25WHIP
Burnett--3.58ERA 1.34WHIP
If Choate and Howell are best available, why wouldn't we re-sign our own guys? Anybody at Syracuse who could help?

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

Friday is the non-tender deadline and will affect Lannan and Flores.

No it won't. Both will be tendered contracts, unless the unlikely happens and they're traded before Friday. If the Nats were to non-tender either one of them, they would be immediately snapped up by some other team. Rather than give them away for nothing, they will be tendered contracts so they can either play in the Nationals organization in 2013 or garner some return value in trade. Neither one of these guys is going to break the bank even if they win an arbitration case. Likewise, there is space available on the 40 man roster even with both of them should a FA be signed. Cutting them loose now woud make no sense.

Theophilus T. S. said...

Agree w/ Feel Wood. Even a low-A ball prospect in exchange is better than nothing.

3on2out said...

Michele S termed Boz's column correctly. Kool aid. And I'm drinking it. Little needs to be done. The pipeline is full and big contract renewals are right around the corner. To demonstrate how far out in lala land I am...I am not opposed to John Lannan returning to the rotation.

SCNatsFan said...

Where is the plan to move Zim to first and play Rendon at third should ALR go elsewhere?

3on2out said...

One more thing. LaRoche is gone. He will get 4 or 5 years somewhere. The Nats should not and will not pony up 60-75M that Adam will command after his silver slugger and gold glove season.

Faraz Shaikh said...

http://bit.ly/QGhpMP

fantasy OF rankings that Swami was referring to.

Doc said...

As for 5th SP's, I think Davey would like to see Christian Garcia take the reins on that one.

A more recent quote on the issue was to the effect that CGar has stuff as good as EJax.

How happy would that make NatsJack, our NI scout in Florida, Happy??

sm13 said...

Get ready, the Nats will be linked to every high profile free agent this week. We'll once again be every agent's favorite "mystery team", to help drive up the price for their clients. Hopefully, it will all be smoke and we'll just sign LaRoche and Burnett and maybe deal Lannan and Flores for a 5th starter.

NatsLady said...

I don't think LaRoche will get 4-5 years elsewhere. He only got a 2-year deal for 2011-12 and he was two years younger. His year was good, but not that much of an outlier from his overall career. Awards are nice recognition, but neither Gold Glove nor Silver Slugger would have been his if Votto had not been injured.

The teams in the "mix" (e.g., Red Sox, Rangers) have alternatives. It's all well and good to say he could get 4-5 years from an AL team that could use him to DH for the last two years, but AL teams are going away from the direction of using that slot for aging sluggers and more towards DH for guys who are recovering from injuries or platooning. A lot of ALR's value--to us--comes from his defense.

I'm a supporter of overpaying LaRoche for two years, and offering him the third year option without a no-trade clause--and eating $$ if Moore (or Skole) is seriously ready in mid-2014.

Steamer said...

Please give Roachy and Burnie close to what they want and sign them.

Faraz Shaikh said...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/rays-extend-evan-longoria.html

WOW!

Don said...

Wow, Boz is in a fantasy world with that piece today.

If it is true that Rizzo and Johnson are feeling complacent with the club, then they are foolish -- I can only hope it is hype for media consumption. The club is close to being able to win a WS, they NEED to fill the holes to get them over the top, they don't need to be making sure that there is a path to the lineup for some Fall League star who MIGHT be ready in 2014. The window to win it all is here right now. (Johnson's comments about how LaRoche should in essence settle for a third less money because he lives a simple racher's life were pretty comical. He could have said "Ted Lerner's an 80 year old kajillionaire who lives a life of spending on lavish luxuries, Ted should just over-pay the guy and we'll get on with it." -- which would also be nonsense.)

Anyway, the club is very good but it was wicked lucky to win 98 games with the offense it put out in 2012. The D was OK not great but trading Morse for LaRoche at 1B is not likely to help. They played more extra innings games than any club in baseball last year and went 13 - 7 in them. They were also 6 games over .500 in 1 run games. How much better can the pitching be in 2013 compared to 2012 such that the Nats can feel comfortable that they'll score more runs than their opponenets on most nights and be a Division winner again (much less move on in the playoffs)?

No way Lannan gets a contract BTW (unless he takes something like $3M to avoid arb), the Nats are not going to tender him and risk having to pay him $5M+ to pitch in Cuse again.

Joe Seamhead said...

My first thing on the wishlist is to bring ALR back. He makes the entire team better, both with his glove at first, and his LH bat in the lineup. And he is the best available option. Besides, if we don't re-sign him we'll keep hearing the same darn song on the jukebox. I agree with the gist of Boz' piece today. Why mess with the chemistry and talent of the organization? Rizzo's whole plan has revolved around building from within, but making a move when needed to take the next step forward. This team is pretty close to being self-sufficient. If it can be done reasonably then re-sign Sean. He is an important part of the team also. C-Gar as a starter? Maybe, but he has had more then his share of durability issues, and I actually like him in the pen. I'd hate to see him throw that one pitch too many again as a starter.
SJM, best wishes regarding the addition to your family!

mick said...

Bos and I are on the same page... let me add something that one needs to consider, I think the Nats offer to ALR is generous. If ALR really wants to win a WS he should take it, if he does not sign with Nats, then it is disappointing in that ALR only cars about money and not winning.

I agree we another lefty stopper and one more starter and I believe they are already in our minor league system. Grieke's bouts with depression make him a mistake to sign

SonnyG10 said...

I liked Boz's article. I think we are in good shape and don't need to do anything drastic. I even think John Lannan would do well for us. He won 10 games for us a couple of years ago when we had a bad team. With the team we have now, he might even be able to win 15 games.

JaneB said...

I want ALR back and Burnett too.I came to really like Gonzalez, but he was a surprise, and maybe Rizzo can find more like that. But Sean for sure. And ALR for REAL sure.

Yesterday I was driving the route we usually take to get to the stadium, and I was getting that butterflies in my stomach feeling again. The good kind. I'm glad we're talking hot stove, because we're getting closer to The Real Thing.

Thank you Mark!

SteveRep44 said...

If the ALR situation needs more than 2 weeks to resolve itself -- and the Nats wind up without him -- there may not be any prime pickings left in terms of a high-end FA to fill that outfield slot.

Nats might be 'stuck' with the Tyler Moore / Corey Brown / Bernadina solution -- until at least the July 31 trade deadline.

JamesFan said...

First priority is a strong starting pitcher (not Greinke) for the back of the rotation; second, strengthen the pen; third, add pitching depth at 'cuse or put Garcia in long relief and be prepared to move him up as a starter if someone goes down.

Fourth, extend JZim and Desi and other quality youngsters.

Fifth, resign LaRoche. We have solid options.

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

No way Lannan gets a contract BTW (unless he takes something like $3M to avoid arb), the Nats are not going to tender him and risk having to pay him $5M+ to pitch in Cuse again.

If they tender him a contract and then he proves untradeable or otherwise useless during spring training, they can Patterson him and avoid paying him most of whatever money he is awarded in arbitration. There is more risk in non-tendering him, thus giving away a potentially valuable asset for nothing, than there is of him proving useless in spring training. Also, because he's out of options, there's no way he can spend another season pitching in AAA for MLB money.

NatsLady said...

I don't think it's a matter of "complacency," to think the Nats don't have a lot of urgent needs. Neither do, for example, the Cards. Nats have a solid young team. A lot of people were disappointed Rizzo didn't do anything at the trade deadline--and then he got Suzuki.

My feeling is Rizzo won't overpay for a free-agent, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some prospects go away for a starting pitcher. Maybe not a Gio-type mega-deal, I don't think you want to deal away too much farm depth, but we seem to have more first-baseman-slugger-types than we need.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

I'm with Feel Wood on Lannan, "what he said"

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

SCNatsFan said...
Where is the plan to move Zim to first and play Rendon at third should ALR go elsewhere?


Stop feeding the troll.

Faraz Shaikh said...

arbitration money is not guaranteed money?

NatsLady said...

Cards are looking for a lefty reliever. If we want Burnett or Gonzalez, might have to get a move on!

Theophilus T. S. said...

Ghost/Feel --

Same applies to Flores as well. First, if Ramos waddles into camp at 275## again, Flores is not surplus at least for the start of the season. Second, given the demand for experienced backup catchers with at least some talent, there is no way they would be unable to find a trade partner if they really needed to move him. "Patterson"-ing him would never be a consideration.

fast eddie said...

JamesFan:
I like your priorities: Sign a strong #5 SP, strengthen the bullpen. I love ALR but we have options: the Tymo/Corey Brown/Bernie solution in LF, with Morse moving to 1B.
Sounds like Rizzo and Davey aren't offering ALR more than two years. That won't keep him.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

2 years won't keep ALR but 3 years just might. You start the negotiation with what you want then the player comes back with what he wants. I don't see him going anywhere else but Texas Rangers or staying in Washington which is what I predicted before the season ended.

Unknown said...

12:28 [Comment From Mike MorseMike Morse: ]
why do you dislike me so much? I am a respectable hitter in that lineup and a decent 3rd OF behind Werth and Harper.
Wednesday November 21, 2012 12:28 Mike Morse
12:28 Dave Cameron: You're not an OF, and your offense is mostly BABIP driven. You're a mediocre player who shouldn't start on a contender.

Ouch pretty harsh dave, realize this was most likely not michael morse with the question, but still harsh

Don said...

Faraz -- arb players can be cut in ST and they'd only get between 30-45 days' worth of the money if that happens, but it is kinf of rare. For example, if Lannan got a tender he'd make north of $4M in arb, and the Nats could, if he stunk it up in the Spring, cut him (they'd risk a grievance if he played well and maybe if he got injured -- not sure about now injury plays into the club's ability to cut a guy). But they'd have to pay him north of $300K not to play for them (which is why I don't see him getting a tender). He'd be on the 40-man roster all winter (though that is not much of a problem for the club right now). We'll see.

SCNatsFan said...

ALR shouldn't sign for 2; to those who say offer him 2.5 or 2.7 years money for 2 years I say why not sign him for three at a fair price and, if need to, move him in 2 years and eat some of the salary if need be. From his perspective this is his last big payday; he should hold out for 3 years - the rub is if there are teams offering him 4 or (gasp) 5 years, those offers will be impossible to beat.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Teddy Rochlis said...
12:28 [Comment From Mike MorseMike Morse: ]
why do you dislike me so much? I am a respectable hitter in that lineup and a decent 3rd OF behind Werth and Harper.
Wednesday November 21, 2012 12:28 Mike Morse
12:28 Dave Cameron: You're not an OF, and your offense is mostly BABIP driven. You're a mediocre player who shouldn't start on a contender.

Ouch pretty harsh dave, realize this was most likely not michael morse with the question, but still harsh


I'm sure that isn't the real "Michael Morse" responding but when you look at Morse of 2011 where he had the great year at the plate, you can make a case that his bat is worth far more than his deficiencies in defense.

Faraz Shaikh said...

Teddy, Dave must have had Riggs sitting next to him during his chat. :P

Don, thanks. I think Lannen is a good backup option in case we fail to upgrade at #5. Thus, we should tender him a contract.

UnkyD said...

" But they'd have to pay him north of $300K not to play for them (which is why I don't see him getting a tender). "

Seriously Don... I don't think +- $300,000 figures meaningfully in ANY decision Rizzo's gonna make, roster-wise speaking. If its a good idea, $300,000 isn't gonna change anybody's mind. Penny-wise, and pound foolish...

NatsLady said...

WS champ postseason bonuses: 2012 ($377K), 2011 ($323K), 2010 ($318K), 2009 ($365K), 2008 ($351K), 2007 ($308K)

Of course, there are no guarantees. But it's something to factor in for ALR if he's weighing the Nats vs. the Red Sox. OTOH, the Rangers are likely to be a good team--again.

NatsLady said...

Here is what the Nats did

Washington Nationals (Share of Players’ Pool: $2,124,312.75; value of each of full share: $37,045.32) – The Nationals awarded 49 full shares, 6.65 partial shares and three cash awards.

postseason money

http://www.sportstalkflorida.com/mlb-2012-postseason-shares-annouced/

peric said...

Uh FeelWood? You're the troll dude I've been here longer and been right more often. When it happens you better hide.

Natslady T-Mo and Skole won't be playing first base. Both are trade bait for pitching or a top power hitting left handed outfielder.

D'Gourds said...

Mike Rizzo (Santa), please, please, please--what I want most for Christmas is a trade for R.A. Dickey! I just finished reading his book--amazing story. He'd fit so well with the Nats. If you would also resign ALR, Gonzales and Burnett!

Anonymous said...

Sign LaRoche!!! Tell that "winner" and "team leader" Werth to give back some of his money to get the deal done. If he is the leader that all of the apologists say he is, then he will have no problem forking over some of his contract to make it happen. LaRoche just won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove...what has Werth done? Why should he make more money, for more years? Do the right thing Jayson!!!

natsfan1a said...
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natsfan1a said...
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natsfan1a said...
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natsfan1a said...

Shopping alert. There's a
Cyber Monday sale through midnight at nationals.com (and other MLB sites). It's buy one, get an item of equal or lesser value at 50 percent off. Some items are not included in the sale (see link above).

Also noticed that the Tysons and Dulles clubhouse stores are open through December 30. Not clear from the site what the deal is after that (and I didn't feel like trying to track it down, so there :-)).

On a player shopping note, put me down for the usual (whatever Davey and Rizzo think). :-)

natsfan1a said...

Sigh. Linkies are not cooperating this a.m. You can find the Cyber Monday sale link on the main nationals.com page.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

NatsLady said...
Here is what the Nats did

Washington Nationals (Share of Players’ Pool: $2,124,312.75; value of each of full share: $37,045.32) – The Nationals awarded 49 full shares, 6.65 partial shares and three cash awards


The World Series player pool is huge but that is just the tip of the iceberg in payments.

It is traditional for the winning team to sign World Series memorabilia and they get paid for that. On top of that, many players are asked to do personal appearances which they get paid for.

Brian Wilson turned his World Series fame 3 years ago into commercials and his own merchandise line which has probably been worth millions to him and David Freese did the same last year.

I'm hoping that many of the Nats players can cash in on their resurgence as the best team in the region.

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

Also noticed that the Tysons and Dulles clubhouse stores are open through December 30. Not clear from the site what the deal is after that

They will probably decide based on the holiday season turnout whether or not having team stores in malls is worth the rent. The couple of times I have been in the Tysons store, there has been absolutely no other foot traffic in there, despite the large crowds wandering the mall at the time. Both times it was prime mall shopping time - Friday night.

NatsLady said...

Peric, um, that's what I said. Excess 1B types will be gone.

UnkyD said...

Digitroll: huh?

Avar said...

I'm still betting on a non-tender for Lannan.

With his well established history, what can he show you in March that you don't already know? By rule, he has to make $4m in '13 if tendered. He'll be very hard to trade at that number. Why pay him $300k to pitch in Viera? What does it gain?

Nothing stops them from signing him after they non-tender him. Can't remember what happens to their ability to send him down if they go that route - have to look that up tonight.

Avar said...

Trying to answer my own question. I think if they non-tender and then later sign him and then later want to send him down, I think they have to DFA him which means waivers. Sound right?

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

Nothing stops them from signing him after they non-tender him.

There are 29 other teams, one of which will pay Lannan more than the Nats will. Also, after being demoted to AAA and then non-tendered by the Nats, he's going to expect a premium to choose them over another team. That ain't "nothing."

Unknown said...

i know everyone likes lannan because he's a lefty, but we can do better, im all for a 2-3 year deal with a solid pitcher, that won't over commit us, and solidify our rotation at the same time, no point chasing someone that we have basically put down, im sure another team will sign him, but lets cut ties. The days are over for when John Lannan was our #1 starter

Avar said...

For '09 thru '11, his WAR was 3.9 which puts him 107th out of 135 qualified pitchers over that span. That's a guy you non-tender in my book. My question remains - what do you gain by tendering him a contract?

But,you're right, someone will offer him a contract. Bruce Chen got $9m for 2 years last year from the Royals and had worse numbers than Lannan. Someone might offer Lannan just that kind of deal.

I wish I could be in the bottom 20% in my profession and get $9m. Crazy world.

Sam Kirby said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sjm308 said...

So nice to be talking baseball instead of sitting in a maternity ward.

1. I try and get LaRoche for the two years and overpay. If that doesn't work, I offer the 3 years but I don't go for 4. I really don't want Morse at first base but will not mind him in LF. To me, the LaRoche decision puts so many other options in or out of play.

2. Starting pitcher - while I would be ok with LannEn, its not my first choice. I think there are enough solid arms out there that Rizzo will surely bring one into the fold. I agree with FeelWood (definite non-troll by the way) that we do tender LannEn and also Flores. They are just too valuable to let go for nothing and we honestly don't know if Ramos is 100%. I also like getting Garcia ready to start this spring.

3. Relief Pitching - my first choice would be to bring back the whole gang. HRod's performance this spring will also be interesting. If he is lights out (I hear many screaming right now!) then it really doesn't matter how many lefthanders we have in the pen. I think Pdowdy has already shown how affective Clip was vs. lefties and I am thinking HRod in the 7th, Clip in the 8th and Storen in the 9th will be just fine.

Very lengthy and I apologize but I have not been in a baseball mood for a couple days now.

NatsLady said...

Great picture. Congrats and thanks for sharing.

Get Some Players said...

Hey Nats Jack, is this your personal blog? You seem to decide who is and is not a 'troll'. It occurs to me a troll to you is someone who posts something you don't like or disagree with.

Holden Baroque said...

I wish I could be in the bottom 20% in my profession and get $9m.

How many people do you suppose play baseball for a living, or are trying to, worldwide? He's probably in the top 2% of his profession. I have no idea where you are in yours, but most people will never sniff that level of achievement.

Holden Baroque said...

Just testing. I think teh Google is blocking me here.

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