Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Election Day Nats poll

Associated Press photo
More than 100 million Americans are expected to vote today.
All across the United States today -- in big cities and small towns, in schools and in churches, in battleground states and in states where the outcome has long been known -- Americans will perform the simplest, yet most important act of democracy: They'll vote.

It's not officially a national holiday, but it might as well be one. Because on this day, more than 100 million citizens will stand in line at polling places and decide who will lead this country for the next four years.

I sincerely hope that every one of you who is registered to vote will do so, no matter which candidate you prefer. I also hope (to a lesser extent) you'll complete our own little Nats Insider Election Day Ballot.

We've come up with the most important questions facing the Nationals heading into next season, and now it's time for your voices to be heard. On the right side of the page you'll find these questions; all you have to do is make your selections and then sit back and watch the returns come in.

No advance research here, no annoying phone calls or TV commercials and certainly no attempts to intimidate or suppress anyone who wishes to vote.

The polls will remain open until 8 p.m. EST, and I'm just as curious as anyone to learn the final results...

112 comments:

baseballswami said...

Thanks, Mark, for the fun post today. Now I gotta go get in line!!

sjm308 said...

I voted:
Approve
3 years
Bryce
Sanchez (although I still think Rizzo will surprise us)

Not sure which party that puts me in but I have never voted for a Republican (for president) and back in the day I actually used a write in ballot for Gene McCarthy in several elections thinking I was actually stopping the war (ah youth).

Can't wait to have those commercials off the air and am so glad I went and voted early. Hope everyone will take this right seriously and as they say in West Virginia, Vote Early and Vote Often

Go Nats!!

Constant Reader said...

This is great Mark, thanks.

Approve

3 years, though I think the third should have a mutual option.

Harper, which is the correct way to pronounce DISH's new Hopper.

Other and a bit of a trick question. #5 will be Detwiler. Rizzo will get us someone not on this list who slots ahead of Detwiler.

Here's wishing serenity to all of you this evening. No matter the outcome, the sun will rise tomorrow morning.

Joe Seamhead said...

Oh, if only the general elections could be so civilized!

Nats fan in NJ said...

Approve
3 years
Harper
Greinke - My opinion is build on the strength of this team. Plus, we were pretty lucky last year re no injuries (major or minor) to our rotation and we can't count on that.

Faraz Shaikh said...

Approve of course. SS and Harper picks are not the only things he has done right as we saw last season.

3 years top, age is the main factor.

Harper, no need to overpay for Upton or Bourn.

Anibal or Lannen, guessing that Kuroda won't sign with anyone other than Yankees or Dodgers. Otherwise, he would be my choice.

Dave said...

Approve
3 years
Harper
Lohse (But I think I would vote Sanchez if I did it again.)

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

Mark, I think there's a technical glitch in your poll. On the last question, the one about Pitchers and Catchers Report, I voted to eliminate that huge deficit but it wouldn't take my vote. Could you fix that, please?

Theophilus T. S. said...

I started out voting for Lannan -- heaven knows, everybody on this list knows I think he's a lousy pitcher. But I'm frightened of giving four or five expensive years to Sanchez. I remember Ray Knight calculating the cost of a mature, Phillies-like pitching staff at upwards of $80MM, even including a $800K/yr punching bag. Very soon, all of the present Nats starters are going to be very expensive.

So I changed to other. Because the best FA candidates will, like Sanchez, cost too much for too long, are injured or want to go to Japan, I'm relying on Rizzo to pull another one-year rental out of his hat.

My dark horse candidate is Josh Johnson. Marlins will realize his chances of re-signing there are zero and, rather than pay him $10MM, will be winning to give him away for a young pitcher (Karns?), an IF (Walters? Rivero? or both?) and a catcher (the other Soltano, giving them a matched set, or maybe Flores). They need help at every position and the Nats have players that will help without harming the core of the team.

CALSGR8 said...

Yes for Rizzo
Bryce for CF
Lannan for 5the Starter. He should never been sent down in favor of Wang last year. It's a disgrace that a pitcher of his caliber was sent down. He's even better than Jackson and much more consistent!

Theophilus T. S. said...

That's "willing," not "winning."

hiramhover said...

Looks like most of the answers are landslides, so far. I'm with the landslide, but with a few qualifications--

I'd offer LaRoche 3 years, but maybe at less $$$ per year than he could get elsewhere, and/or low money but incentive bonuses in the 3d year. If he gets more guaranteed money elsewhere, he probably walks.

Sanchez--I'd like to see him, but given the weakness of the market for starting pitchers, I doubt the Nats make the top offer to get him--and given the current strength of the rotation, they shouldn't.



natsfan1a said...

I seem to be running with the (current) popular NI opinion as well. Seeing as how I'm an independent, that doesn't always happen. (And yes, I performed my other civic duty as well. :-)

natsfan1a said...

Oh, and I also disapprove of the pitchers and catchers report date being so far in the future. Can't we move that one up a bit? :-)

NatsLady said...

I guess we are not in the market for this guy...

Which team will win the rights to negotiate with Hanwha Eagles star Ryu Hyun-Jin? Signs of [Ryu's] entry to the Major League Baseball are palpable since the 25-year-old became available for a move via the posting system on Nov. 2. The bidding will end Friday at 7 a.m. Although specific names of bidders and numbers remain unknown, some major teams have requested Ryu's pitch-tracking data from Sports2i, the Korea Baseball Organization's (KBO) official data provider, in an obvious attempt to size up the southpaw. ... According to the official, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers have requested the information, while the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians already paid for it.

NatsLady said...

1a, here ya go. 98 days...(assuming Feb. 13 for report date)...right down to the second.

countdown to pitchers and catchers

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?iso=20130213T00&p0=2122&fg2=ff6724&msg=Pitchers+and+Catchers+Report&csz=1

NatsLady said...

So, Apple picked this moment to update my iPhone with a new release... All bundled up with hot tea and ready to vote, gotta wait a few minutes for technology to catch up. :) :) Luckily, Mark's election doesn't require an iPhone.

NatsLady said...

OK, so we know JayB disapproves. Who are the other 3 people?

natsfan1a said...

Gee, thanks, NatsLady. :-)

countdown to pitchers and catchers

MicheleS said...

Just got the email from the Nats for STH:

Bring your red carpet rewards card to the team stores and you get 30% off regular merchandise and 50% off all post season merchandise.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

NatsLady said...
OK, so we know JayB disapproves. Who are the other 3 people?

November 06, 2012 8:57 AM


You don't have to be a registered voter here so most likely trolls just clicking on the disapprove for the sake of being negative.



Ghost Of Steve M. said...

How many years would you give Adam LaRoche in a new contract?


I voted for 2 years but I think it will take 3 years or more to get him. I would go 3 years just because I think the team continuity is more important and with any luck ALR will get better with age.

I think a 4th year vesting option if needed could be fair for LaRoche.

The risk for LaRoche is turning away the Nats and having the Nats go in a different direction. Never underestimate what Rizzo could pull off at the GM and Winter Meetings.

sjm308 said...

MichelleS!! thanks for that update. I did not get that email yet but I just might head down there with those kinds of discounts

Theo - your caveats on the starting pitcher are well put. I really only want a guy for one year, two tops with what I think we have coming up. If it is a matter of giving one of these guys 5 years then I am with you on LannEn as our #5.

Go Nats!!

Theophilus T. S. said...

Here's another candidate for Mystery Starter: Brandon McCarthy (so long as the A's don't resign him, or maybe even if they do).

At first blush his career seems to look a lot like Lohse but closer inspection shows his problems first five years were BB and HR. In the past two seasons he's had those under control and low WHIPs, suggesting evolution is responsible for the improvement, not luck.

It would be characteristic of Rizzo to take a chance on someone w/ an injury question mark if he thought the reward potential was worth the risk.

I could easily see the Nats auditioning at least three SPs (including internal candidates) in the No. 5 slot during the first 2-3 mos. of the season looking for one who fits.

MicheleS said...

SJM.. I bet there is some really cute baby clothes for that Grand Kid.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...


Here is the 10 Nationals arbitration eligible players with MLBTR estimates of what they believe they will get in arbitration.

•John Lannan - $5MM
•Jordan Zimmermann - $4.9MM
•Tyler Clippard - $4.6MM
•Ian Desmond - $3.2MM
•Tom Gorzelanny - $2.8MM
•Ross Detwiler - $2.2MM
•Drew Storen - $1.7MM
•Jesus Flores - $1.2MM
•Roger Bernadina - $1.1MM
•Craig Stammen - $900K

Dave said...

For me, the big news in the Nats' email was that they have team stores in Tysons Corner and Dulles Town Center malls. I did not know that.

Faraz Shaikh said...

Looking at their arbitration salaries, I think locking up JZ and Clip to team friendly contracts is a must. 3 year deal for Clip and six year deal for JZ.

Faraz Shaikh said...

Theo, I like McCarthy very much but wonder how much of an injury risk he is. he did take a line drive off of his head.

Faraz Shaikh said...

GoSM, if we are thinking of a vesting option for fourth year, the conditions have to be tough since that will be his age 36 season. how many 36-year olds are worth their money?

Faraz Shaikh said...

Mark, a post on non-tender/tender and extension candidates would be great. Thank you.

SlowPitch63 said...

What a great day to be an American! I just returned from voting at the local elementary school. Stood in line for an hour ten and looked at the kids' art work and photographs. Loved standing with my fellow citizens of every race and many racial combinaions, each gender and I assume various religious beliefs. We probably had an age span of 80 years and many languages. It still chokes me up. It's what I fought for.
Oh, yea: Rizzo, Bryce, Other (let Rizzo decide)
Let's Play Two!

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Theo, during the 2011 season I pondered if Rizzo would go back to the A's for a deal as they had some pitching that was higher priced and Beane has always seemed willing to part with higher priced pitchers approaching Arb and Free Agency.

Brandon McCarthy had very good Sabre stats which made him look much better than the traditional pitching stats. I always felt he was a hidden gem. Now I'm not so sure. That hit to the head was worse than any concussion. I think Rizzo is no longer in a position for what is an unknown. This isn't 2009 any more.

Doc said...

Great polling feature MarkMeister!

Now, I'm off to vote early and often for my favorite Indiana write-in candidate, Senator Beauregard Claghorn.

Sen. Claghorn is on the right side of all our country's important issues: bribery, money laundering, in-appropriate sexual behavior, stuffing ballot boxes, and keeping a bank account in the Bahamas.

Doc said...

Good point on Rizzo and, "...what is an unknown..." Ghost!

Gone are the days when Nats have to take a flyer on has-beens like Wang, and the cast of 100's that showed up at previous ST camps.

It wasn't too long ago that the prospective ST rotation included only one starter who had a winning record the previous season.

Theophilus T. S. said...

Ghost --

I know there's a question about McCarthy, although there was some talk concerning his ability to pitch in the latter stages of the playoffs. I don't know whether that talk was serious or wishful.

If McCarthy opened the season on the 60-day DL while Rizzo auditioned Perry and/or Garcia as starters that would be OK with me. We always talk about needing pitching depth and this might be a way to acquire "quality depth" inexpensively.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Doc said...
Good point on Rizzo and, "...what is an unknown..." Ghost!

Gone are the days when Nats have to take a flyer on has-beens like Wang, and the cast of 100's that showed up at previous ST camps.

It wasn't too long ago that the prospective ST rotation included only one starter who had a winning record the previous season.

November 06, 2012 10:05 AM


The cyclicality of building a team up like the Nats did is painful thinking back to the days of a 5 man rotation that included 2 to 3 journeyman.

Until the team hits their budget ceiling, they don't have to take risks on reclamation projects or high risk players nor should they but when good teams hit payroll constraints, even they have to fill-in with lower priced role players.

As you project out 2 to 4 years you can see payroll growth could easily get to $150 million as market value of your own players in your "core" such as Stras, JZim, and Desi will cost major dollars to retain.

That is why going more than 2 years on LaRoche is such a major consideration. Its not an issue today but could be a constraint 3 years from now.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Theo, there is such a need to get off to a quick start that the fallback worse case is keeping Lannan. I think Garcia will stay in the 'pen. Perry is an interesting player and the timing just isn't great to convert him to starter with no MiLB options.

His AFL showing has gotten better on paper just not sure what he is throwing and how he looks in person.

My thinking is if the Nats want to make a splash in the FA, Anibal Sanchez certainly is a safe bet with great upside. His pitching in Nats Park coupled with his road stats makes him tops on my list. If they don't get him, I think I would prefer Lannan who has 1 year left and should be only a $5 to $7 million salary.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

On the ALR front, things change quickly. The Red Sox are rumored to be looking to get Torii Hunter. If they pick up his salary along with the money they spent on David Ortiz and the money they have to spend for pitching, its doubtful they will go all in on Adam LaRoche.

I still think Texas would be a fit but they need to bolster their outfield first.

Theophilus T. S. said...

Maybe there should be a vote on who will manage in 2013.

Reading Kilgore's column today makes me lean toward the vale of foreboding.

It seems to me there are four possible sources of disagreement: (1) salary (Johnson wants more ($10MM?) than we imagine); (2) coaches (e.g., Johnson wants Eckstein out, someone other than Beasley @ 3B; remember, Johnson sees himself as the supreme hitting coach, and probably pitching coach, too); (3) long-term development plan (who they see as the 2014, 2015 Opening Day lineups); (4) Johnson really doesn't want to manage, realizes the 162-game grind is more than he wants, sees MLB's best record as suitable cap for his body of work.

A possible sub-plot to ## 1, 3 and 4 is that Johnson really isn't as enamored of the current roster as he seemed to be (remembering his "you come down here and manage this team" argument w/ Rizzo) and there are moves he wants to make that Rizzo won't have any part of.

This has both Gibbs walk-aways written all over it.

SCNatsFan said...

Thteam is on the cusp of winning it all with players he has picked and supported... no way Davey goes anywhere. It isn't like Giggleman who was just keeping the seat warm and could have been replaced by a corpse.

Theophilus T. S. said...

Ghost --

I agree that a good start is nice but (A) as the cliche says, this is a marathon, not a sprint and (B) it's not as if they got very much out of the #5 spot last Spring either; real production didn't materialize until Detwiler returned to the rotation.

Perry is a conundrum. Why bother to try to make him a starter unless you want to/are willing to give him a tryout, even a short one? It's not as if they didn't know last summer, when they moved him from the 'pen to the rotation in H'burg, that (A) he had no options; (B) there was a better than even chance they were going to sign a FA starting pitcher. So why waste the experiment? Nothing shows, so far, that the experiment isn't working -- unless there are more detailed reports from AZ than those we've seen.

With Garcia there's another possible course: send him down to Syracuse to start while you experiment with an orthopedic/neurological question mark (Haren, McCarthy) in April or May (although I imagine Haren will be too expensive to justify as an experiment). At least, maybe, Garcia is major-league material in 2014.

JD said...


Ghost,

'That is why going more than 2 years on LaRoche is such a major consideration. Its not an issue today but could be a constraint 3 years from now.'

This is correct especially in the context of the fact that the 3rd year may be a steep decline year for LaRoche.

Bowdenball correctly pointed out that we have a tremendous opportunity to add seriously good players in the next 2 years because the payroll is still relatively low thus the strategy by Rizzo could be to overpay excellent players in salary as long as they take fewer years.

JD said...


An example of what I say above is this: If Bourn can only get 4 years at $15 mil per on the open market you may want to give him 2 years at $20 mil per. This gives you an opportunity to develop Goodwin further and see if he's the real deal and does not constrict you financially long term.

I have no idea if any of this is actually practical but I think that this is the line of thinking Rizzo will use this off season.

natsfan1a said...

That's great news for NoVa peeps like me. :-)

Dave said...

For me, the big news in the Nats' email was that they have team stores in Tysons Corner and Dulles Town Center malls. I did not know that.
November 06, 2012 9:33 AM

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

Reading Kilgore's column today makes me lean toward the vale of foreboding.

It makes me think he took his "OMG they haven't extended Ryan Zimmerman yet!" article from last year, changed the names and particulars, and phoned it back in. How'd that one turn out anyway?

This has both Gibbs walk-aways written all over it.

In that case, until master Gibbsologist Boswell writes a column saying there's absolutely no way Davey will ever quit, you have nothing to worry about.

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

For me, the big news in the Nats' email was that they have team stores in Tysons Corner and Dulles Town Center malls. I did not know that.

I went to the Tysons store a couple of weeks ago looking for something Teddy to give my sister for her birthday. All they had left was one overpriced T shirt with all four presidents on it and a couple of those Teddy hand puppets, so I bought the T shirt. I didn't think they would honor the RCR card discount, so I didn't even ask about that.

The store basically had a smaller subset of the stuff they sell at the main team store - or more accurately the stuff they had left there at the end of the season. They were already selling the playoff stuff at a steep discount (ten bucks for a T shirt IIRC), so I wonder if they are giving the RCR discount on top of that? I would hope they plan on adding stock, including new/different items, before the holidays. Otherwise you'd probably get a better deal on whatever old Nats stuff they're selling at TJ Maxx or Marshall's across the street from the mall.

UNTERP said...

NatsLady said...

1a, here ya go. 98 days...(assuming Feb. 13 for report date)...right down to the second.

countdown to pitchers and catchers


Clearly, NatsLady, you have too much time on your hand, but clearly if I knew how to do this, I'd do the same... :)

Faraz Shaikh said...

we most likely need a RH starter for our fifth spot, but will we take a chance on lester if Red Sox is selling him cheap?

NatsLady said...

Clearly, NatsLady, you have too much time on your hand, but clearly if I knew how to do this, I'd do the same... :)

I miscalculated and went to vote too early. If I had waited until 11:30 there would have been NO line AT all! Also, I don't know why they bother with electronic voting, since the paper voting is--easily--twenty times faster. I mean, twenty people voted with paper ballots while one person had the touch screen explained to them and used it. I grasp that counting the ballots is faster, but by how much, since the paper ballots used pencil dots which are read electronically also. (No hanging chads in my area.)

NatsLady said...

I did get a yummy taco at the food truck outside the polling place, and it got warmer and sunnier (it's actually gorgeous now in Our Nation's Capital) so the walk home was quite pleasant. Mark, I like your polling method and your questions, but where is the food truck?

Two questions on the back of the ballot==>should convicted felons be allowed on the city Council and should a convicted felon be allowed as mayor? Makes you wonder...

NatsLady said...

Re: Davey. Rizzo's reputation took a hit with the RIggleman, Werth, and Stras decisions. Not so much with fans here (although there were critics of every one of those decisions, obviously) but with outsiders and apparently with some of his compatriots.

No GM is without controversy. However, I don't think he should take on another PR battle. He can persuade the Lerners to pony up. If Davey doesn't re-up it has to be for health reasons. Period.

NatsLady said...

Here are the Nats minor league free agents (FYI).

Washington Nationals
RHP: Erik Arnesen (AAA), Mitch Atkins (AAA), Jimmy Barthmaier (AA), Adam Carr (HiA), Wilson Eusebio (LoA), Jeff Fulchino (AAA), Waldis Joaquin (AAA), Mike MacDougal (AAA), Kevin Pucetas (AA), Zech Zinicola (AA)
LHP: Michael Ballard (AA), Atahualpa Severino (AAA), Cory VanAllen (AA)
C: James Skelton (AAA)
1B: Tim Pahuta (AA), Mark Teahen (AAA)
2B: Jarrett Hoffpauir (AAA), Manny Mayorson (AAA), Jim Negrych (AAA)
SS: Seth Bynum (AA), Brent Greer (HiA)
OF: Jason Michaels (AAA), Angelberth Montilla (LoA), Jesus Valdez (AAA)

The list for all teams is here. You can poke through it to see if there is another Zach Duke.

minor-league-free-agents-2012

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/11/minor-league-free-agents-2012/

MicheleS said...

SIMPLY the Post of the day:

NatsLady said...
I did get a yummy taco at the food truck outside the polling place, and it got warmer and sunnier (it's actually gorgeous now in Our Nation's Capital) so the walk home was quite pleasant. Mark, I like your polling method and your questions, but where is the food truck?

Yea Mark where is the Food Truck????

Faraz Shaikh said...

"The first part of the second part explains the second part of the second part. He doesn't post better numbers because the HR/FB% is so obscene. One also notices the slightly elevated BABIP. The simple explanation might be that Blanton catches too much of the plate when he's in a hitter-friendly count. Maybe it isn't such a good thing that he avoids walks -- maybe he should be more willing to issue a few walks instead of being too aggressive."

Jeff Sullivan of LookoutLanding on Joe Blanton's unlucky numbers.

Ron In Reston said...

For those who are voting for Lannan as #5 starter:

The Nats have four starters in place: Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gonzalez and Detwiler. That's two righties and two lefties. The Braves and the Phillies notwithstanding, major league lineups are mostly right-handed hitting. Do you really want a soft-tossing LEFTY as your #5, thereby giving you three lefties in your rotation? You'd be hard-pressed to find any rotation in baseball with three, even two lefties as starters. I looked through Bleacher Report's speculation for next year's starting rotations and found three teams with three lefties: Rockies, Dodgers, and Rays. Dodgers and Rays I can live with since Kershaw and Price, while lefties, don't have any significant dropoff when it comes to facing righties. Lannan, on the other hand, is only slightly more effective against lefties than righties, which is to say: not very. His career BAA for lefties is .262 and righties is .275. That is not what we need in the rotation. I think this has to be viewed as we did Livo last year: thank you for all you've done for us, but you just don't fill a need for us anymore.

Faraz Shaikh said...

despite what Jeff says, I would like Nationals to sign joe to a minor league if possible. he can be a good #5 in case of an emergency.

Ron In Reston said...

I guess I left out my votes:

Approve

Three years, absolutely. You cannot afford to give up his defense for Morse at first and Moore in LF and you cannot afford to give up the big LH bat in the middle of the lineup. Simple. Three years with an option for the fourth where he becomes the LH bat off the bench.

Harper. He was good to occasionally very good, has a cannon arm and will only get better out there. With Werth entrenched in right and Morse (or Moore) in left, the outfield is fine. Let Goodwin get another year of seasoning before we bring him up here and start shuffling things around. We had the best record in baseball without having that outfield for the majority of the season, let's see what they casn do together for a full season.

My vote currently is for Anibal Sanchez, because it needs to be a righty. Lohse is too old for us, as is Kuroda. Greinke would not be a good fit due to personal issues. Sanchez has been a 190+ innings, sub 4 ERA, and steadily increasing his K/BB ratio the last three years.

And I also would like to know where the food truck is :)

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

Faraz Shaikh said...
GoSM, if we are thinking of a vesting option for fourth year, the conditions have to be tough since that will be his age 36 season. how many 36-year olds are worth their money?

November 06, 2012 9:44 AM


Jon Heyman is the only one I have seen mention 4 years. I'm saying no way you go that long but maybe a vesting option would be fair and you are right, every year you add could have serious declining value in terms of production.

LaRoche has twice tested Free Agency and both times wasn't near the top of the 1st Basemen available and both times got less than stellar results in settling for the 1 year deal with Arizona and his 2 year deal with the option with the Nats.

This time, LaRoche is the top 1st baseman available however, he doesn't have the resume' of the typical "star" 1st baseman. Never been an All Star, never led his league in HRs or RBIs, and really isn't well-known in the baseball world.

Being well-known for a Top Free Agent helps the case as teams have "marketing motivations" to their fanbase for top Free Agents they sign and Adam LaRoche probably won't help the Bosox excite their fickled fanbase or sell tickets as they are basically sold-out anyway.

NatsLady said...

Ghost, LOL on the "fickled fanbase." LaRoche isn't a high profile, high drama type of guy. Neither are the Nats as a team, really, even with Bryce on it.

Ghost Of Steve M. said...

NatsLady, agreed. I keep thinking this isn't Adam Dunn 2.0 where a team will pony up the 4 year $14 million a year deal and Dunn was younger, and I'm thinking LaRoche really does want to stay if the deal is fair.

I'm thinking fair is 3 years using the polling data, Jon Heyman's expert and a lot of "hope".

MicheleS said...

Seriously, we need Drake to keep Byrce company, plus Bryce can help groom him to be our future first round pick in 2020. Then Drake can train Baby Z for the same job in 2030. Just looking for a little continuity here.

Tcostant said...

Very interesting:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/05/history-suggests-that-michael-bourn-is-likely-to-be-a-bust/

What I would do:

Re-sign ALR for three years if needed (but two and option would be ideal)
Offer prospects for James Shields of the Rays. He will cost less in terms of prospects than Price, and is an above average ML pitcher who is controlled until after the 2014 season.
If we can’t get Shields (or Price) sign Greinke for 5 to 6 years at $18M per.
Per the link above – avoid Bourn!

Unknown said...

Approve
3 Years
Harper
Sanchez (Lannan was a very close 2nd for me)

Michele S, I'm still waiting on the Nats gear to start flooding in from my pop. I won't be surprized if he gets him his own personalized jersey with "Chainsaw" written on the back.

NatsLady said...

Heyman's ranking:

23. Sean Burnett, RP. Very good lefty reliever who should be appreciated this winter. Expert: $14.5 million, 3 years. Me: $16.5 million, 3 years.

31. Jeremy Affeldt, RP. His huge postseason should make him coveted. Expert: $11 million, 2 years. Me: $18 million, 3 years.

NatsLady said...

From Heyman, it looks like you have to give a lefty reliever three years, so--take your pick.

UnkyD said...

Silly:

"DJB said...
Bourne is a definite no go. We need Price. I think a deal that includes Espinosa, Rendon, and maybe even Morse gets it done. Bats basically kept the Rays out of the playoffs. Espinosa is a strike-out machine, and I don't see it getting better.
November 04, 2012 9:55 PM"

Theophilus T. S. said...

"I would like Nationals to sign joe [Blanton] to a minor league if possible. he can be a good #5 in case of an emergency."

If, by emergency, you mean someone to pile sandbags around Joe Biden the next time a hurricane comes to Washington, I agree.

Why on earth are you interested in him?

Faraz Shaikh said...

LOL, good one theo.

He has good K/9 and BB/9 numbers and seems like a pitcher with one problem of high HR/FB% which is fixable I believe. anyways, it is still a minor league signing.

MicheleS said...

Kevin FSU.. If he gets a "Chainsaw" Jersey, we need pictures!

SJM.. for your spending habits, the sale for STH's is until 11/21, so get your shopping done now.

NatsLady said...

MicheleS, I plan to go this week or next. Have some extra $$ that I didn't spend (sob!).

Have you all been following the story of the Nats batting practice pitcher who is suing the Phillies for defamation of character? One interesting aspect to me is Werth's involvement and apparent influence.

ali-modami-nationals-batting-practice-pitcher-sues

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/6/ali-modami-nationals-batting-practice-pitcher-sues/

MicheleS said...

BTW for those of you that voted today, keep your "I Voted" sticker if you wear it to a California Tortilla place, you get a free taco..

As you know I am all about the free stuff.

Faraz Shaikh said...

talking about extra $$, did you all get your money back from playoff tickets? I still have not.

MicheleS said...

Faraz. i just called, (I am a STH) they credited the $$$ paid back to my plan for next year. They said they are going to be sending out a letter that gives the details of how stuff was applied. Supposed to be by next week.

Scooter said...

Faraz, you keep reminding me to check. Thank goodness for this site!

Still no money, and I'm getting a little [vexed] about it.

JD said...


Unkyd,

That's an overpay for Price. You are taking away more win shares from the Nats than Price will ever be able to replace + he will be very expensive in a very short period of time.

Why are we looking for a no. 1 starter at $20 mil + a year when we already have 4 excellent ones? why not mix and match until we get to Meyer and Giolito?

Faraz Shaikh said...

I guess they are still taking care of STHs first which is OK with me (not a STH). But taking this long to give the money back when you charge it the next day, is not fair.

Why don't they simply put a hold on the amount when someone buys the ticket and relieve that hold if game is not being played? this seems more simple than having charged people and then giving them their money back.

JD said...


I totally disagree with the negative Bourn article. You can make a case that he is an overpay and we can spend the money elsewhere but you can't say that a player who is a consistent 4.5 WAR player over the past 4 years and was a 6.4 WAR player last and who does not turn 30 until December does not improve the Nats immediately.

Tcostant said...

Faraz Shaikh said...
talking about extra $$, did you all get your money back from playoff tickets? I still have not.

Me: Mostly yes.

On my Season Ticket Strips they credited my credit card for Game 1 of the NLCS and the rest was credited to my account to overset 2013 payments.

The STH Advance sale for NLCS was also credited back to my credit card.

The NLCS public sale, I purchased an addition two tickets per and that has NOT been credited to my credit card yet.

So mostly yes.

JD said...


To clarify; I wouldn't sign Bourn for more than 2 years with the expectation/hope that Goodwin takes over that position eventually but I would do 2 years at $18 mil per.

It's a moot point because someone will give Bourn 4 - 5 years and I wouldn't do that.

JD said...


I don't think Greinke, Price or Sheilds is happening. I think it's more likely to be someone like McCarthy who is willing to sign for 1 year to rebuild his reputation. If we can get Haren or Sanchez for 2 years it would be ideal but I don't think this is happening.

Faraz Shaikh said...

the more I read about Haren and his injury, seems like he will only get one year deal.

The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes. said...

Why don't they simply put a hold on the amount when someone buys the ticket and relieve that hold if game is not being played? this seems more simple than having charged people and then giving them their money back.

That's what StubHub does. But if the team did that on the initial sale, it would probably make it difficult or impossible for people to resell tickets on StubHub. It would be like building a house of cards trying to keep it all straight with all the purchasers down the line. Especially since some fees get reimbursed and others don't.

Faraz Shaikh said...

thanks for clarifying FW. That makes sense. but still taking this long to pay us back is not right.

Theophilus T. S. said...

Faraz --

Blanton is Lannan only older. He's death in close games: you'll be goin' along in the fourth or fifth inning, score 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 . . ., feeling pretty good, and then, . . . a walk here, a hit there and BANG! BOOM!, before you can get back from the refrigerator you're three runs behind. (Not that I have objected, because he's been pitching for the Phillies.) His W-L is what it is only because he's been pitching for a team that, until this year, scored copious runs. He had a high ERA even in Oakland, where the ballpark gives back runs to the pitcher almost every game.

UnkyD said...

JD: you are correct. That's why I labeled DJB's proposal as "Silly."

corm9 said...

I like the idea of taking a 1 year flyer on Brandon McCarthy...could probably get him for around $8-10 mil/yr

MicheleS said...

On refunds if you follow DC sportsbog he has been retweeting things people have done to get the refund. Also Faraz they charges my account instantly for the tickets but only applied the credit to my 2013 tickets. Keep calling! !!

Scooter said...

"things people have done"?

Eesh, I don't even want to think about it. I'll just wait another day or two.

MicheleS said...

Scooter
People have actually worked with there credit card companies so they don't pay fees or interest

blovy8 said...

I think we will need likely have a new fifth starter for more than a year with the rehab rotation we are forming in the minors. In as much as Rizzo spent 11 million for a starter to eat "meaningful innings in September", when he already had three guys with no options for the last two spots - I have a hard time believing the Nats won't sign someone. Sanchez has gotten popular in the rumor mill, I think he'll be priced out of our range. The next guy I would take a shot on is Scott Baker for a one/two year make good deal, while the A-ball lefties heal. Get Duke back and give him a bump in pay even if he ends up in AAA. Or at least a similar guy who's better than Maya.

blovy8 said...

I did vote for Sanchez, but I think Detroit or another club will get him for 4+ years with the TV money that will be thrown around.

Theophilus T. S. said...

Baker is riskier than McCarthy -- and according to what has been written is more likely than not to re-sign w/ MN. First, they know him better and, second, they need him more.

However, if you are willing to sign Baker you are willing to sign McCarthy.

CoverageisLacking said...

Could someone enlighten me on the intentional misspelling of Lannan's last name that seems to exist only on this blog? Thanks!

JayB said...

I voted

Approve
2 years
Bourn
Other....(Price Trade)

Rizzo and Davey have lots they could improve..as we all do.....but I lived through Acta, Jimbo and Kasten.....I have some perspective.

sjm308 said...

MichelleS

I have not received the email yet, but will probably work something out with Kevin to go shopping. You wrote about "field trips" a few posts ago and we just solidified a trip to San Francisco to watch our lads play the World Champs in late May. should be fun.

I would sign Blanton if he takes a minor league deal. It can't be any worse than LannEn and we really did get lucky this year as far as injuries.
I still like Sanchez if its just a two year deal and if we are going to gamble, then Haren jumps out at me.

Finally, I think the Nationals refunded a small amount into my credit card and credited the remainder into my 2013 season tickets. I will look at that right now. Thanks again to all of you for keeping us informed.

Go Nats!!

fast eddie said...

Election night prediction:
--Davey re-ups as manager this week. Lerner intervenes in negotiations with a sizeable raise to recognize his accomplishments
--ALR signs with the Rangers (sigh) and our off-season needs and realignment of 1B/OF begins in earnest.

natsfan1a said...

Re. LannEn, just dug up this explanation, courtesy of JaneB:

JaneB said...

rdn, Riggleman didn't misspell LannEn on just any old line up card.mit was a game against the Phillies, and the Phillies had John LannAn's number big time. When he pitched, it was like those guys got staked to five runs. But that day, John LannEn was the winner, and the rest is history. Just like the guys don't mess with things that occurred at the start of a streak (underwear, meals, etc), WE don't mess with new, empowered spelling of LannEn.

natsfan1a said...

(I didn't get all the details right last time I tried to explain it myself. :-))

Unknown said...

I lean toward trying Brown and/or Prez in center. The Shark also looked good last year. Pitching I will leave up to Rizzo. They do not need a number 1 but a number 4 or 5. The cost should be commensurate.

Gonat said...

What about Dempster on a 1 year deal?

baseballswami said...

We are stacked with outfield options.

fast eddie said...

Election night predictions, part deux:
--Romney/Obama election will be decided by a half dozen "swing" states.
(Wanted to insure one of my three predictions came true--see above)

Scooter said...

Michele, that sounds a lot less dire than what I was picturing. (Less likely to get me in dutch with the missus, too.)

Gonat said...

ordertracking@Tickets.com writes:
Hello Michael,

Thank you for contacting Tickets.com.
Your refund was processed on 11/02/12. Please allow 7 to 10 business days for a credit to show.

Thank you for visiting Tickets.com.

Lena

Consumer Services
____________________________________

I just got this email :)

Gonat said...

Ryan Perry got bombed tonight and didn't make it out of the 4th inning giving up 2 HRs and 4 earned.

Goodwin 0-2 and Rendon 1-1 with a double

SonnyG10 said...

Not looking too good for Ryan Perry. Don't think I'll count on him for much.

Scooter said...

Frankly, Sonny, I've been a bit surprised by all the positive expectations for Perry. But then, I once held out hope for Matt Chico, so I'm in no position to poke fun.

Gonat said...

Rendon 2-2, with a walk, Sac Fly, SB and 3 RBIs with 2 hits w/ RISP. Now batting .305

The rest of the Nats tonight, not so good in Perry, Kimball and Goodwin

Unknown said...

Great post! I’m sure you worked really hard on this article and it shows. I agree with a lot of your material. I enjoyed this and I will be back for more.

Online Poll at SurveyTool

Scooter said...

Wow. I knew this site was doing well, but now we've really hit the big time. With Jonathan's thoughtful endorsement, not to mention the link to his awesome online poll at SurveyTool, there' no limit to how far we can go.

Congratulations, Mark Zuckerman! You must be so proud!!!!

Unknown said...

We only regret that Nats fans didn't have the gumption required to vote for Sanchez as many times as they did for Buster Posey or Melky..

Nationals

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