Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Beltway Baseball Live - 8/2/11



The trade deadline has passed, Jason Marquis and Jerry Hairston are gone, Drew Storen is still here and Stephen Strasburg is very close to pitching again.

Chase Hughes and I discussed all that -- and showed exclusive video of Strasburg making his final simulated game appearance in Viera -- at 1 p.m. today during our latest live edition of Beltway Baseball. We also answered your questions on Roger Bernadina, Ivan Rodriguez, Laynce Nix and the makeup of the Nats' rotation moving forward.

If you missed the show, here it is, split into two parts. You can find Part 2 below the jump...

56 comments:

Euonymus said...

Question #1: When will CSN get a good sound man (person)?

Question #2: What's the deal on Carpenter? And Question #2.1: Are the Nats (hopefully) looking elsewhere?

Question #3: Could you move your Strasburg DC start WAG from the 7th to the 6th so I can sell my tickets, max out the profit and buy a cheaper ticket to the game?

joemktg said...

Jon Heyman of si.com ranked the Nats as the #1 Trade Deadline loser. How do you rank the Nats in your Trade Deadline winners and losers?

WillieHarrisUnderpants said...

When do you think we'll get to see Lombardozzi in DC? Is he a September guy for sure, or is there a chance we'll see him before that (perhaps if someone like Cora is waived)?

Anonymous said...

"Jon Heyman of si.com ranked the Nats as the #1 Trade Deadline loser."

On what basis? On value going vs. coming back?On improving for the stretch run?

Steve M. said...

Mark, Davey is no dummy. He is managing like Riggleman did with 1 arm tied behind his back when it comes to this blowup bullpen.

With Detwiler taken out of the bullpen, Davey can only rely on Storen and Clippard to a point and then maybe Mattheus.

Henry Rodriguez leads the Majors in Wild Pitches per innings pitched.

What moves do you see Rizzo making in the bullpen (besides Balester)? Do you see HenRod to the DL?

VCUAlum Kyle said...

Mark,

Question 1: With the rosters expanding in a month, which prospects will be coming up to DC to showcase their skills?

Question 2: What is the orginzations view on AA 1B prospect Tyler Moore? He is hitting in the Eastern League .274/.313/.538 with 24 bombs and 72 rbi's.

Question 3: Has Shairon Martis earned his way back into the Nats Future plans? He is having a great year in AA with a 7-4 recrod and 3.36 era.

Question 4: When J-Z (Jordan Zimm) is shutdown in September, will Strasburg be the guy taking his spot in the rotation?

Question 5: Whats the word on Oliver Perez? He has looked ok in AA, how does the Nats front office view his progression?

josh f said...

My question: How do you think the centerfielder search will play out in the offseason? Are there any interesting CF free agents who will be available this winter, or will Rizzo & Co. revisit Span/Upton, potentially with more prospects to deal?

JaneB said...

Whatever Ankiel is drinking these days, will they please make it widely available in our clubhouse?

Steve M. said...

In fairness, here is what Heyman said in ranking the Nats and also the Rays. I guess someone needed to be ranked the worse. At least Heyman didn't add Rizzo's reported "desperation":

Losers
1. Nationals. They never got the centerfielder they sought, though they tried hard for Denard Span and at least two others (B.J. Upton and Bourn were on the market). As in past years, they mostly eschewed selling even though they are a non-contender. This one wasn't quite as bad since they weren't holding Adam Dunn or Alfonso Soriano (who at the time were good players when Washington chose not to deal them). But the Nats kept Todd Coffey, a useful middle reliever this time, and bizarrely even traded minor leaguers for Jonny Gomes. They did deal solid starter Jason Marquis. So at least that made sense.


11. Rays. They are still holding a lot of nice young pieces due to their overall terrific job. But Upton didn't turn out to be all that coveted as a trade-deadline piece. He should work better as a winter target. There apparently was no market for DH Johnny Damon. And their attempts for Rasmus didn't work. Credit GM Andrew Friedman for working through an appendectomy the night before the deadline, though. That's amazing.

P. Cole said...

What do you envision our starting rotation looking like on September 1?

Natslifer said...

Mark -

To your previous post about the Nats and the East. My take is a little different and is just based on the math:

- The AL and NL East are clearly the best divisions in baseball with the best teams top to bottom. The Jays are now 2 games over .500 and 11 and 1/2 out and in 4th place.
- Pick any other division and 2 games over at this point and you're still in the hunt.
- Assuming the trend continues, the challenge for everyone in those two divisions is to try to play .500 ball within the division and then dominate teams outside of their division.
- Life would be much different right now if we had gone 4-2 or 5-1 against Houston and LA.

MLB is thinking about adding an extra playoff team specifically because of the two Easts. Assuming realignment doesn't change the divisions, then we've got to do what we should do - beat up on worse teams - and those teams are largely in the other divisions right now.

Now of course it would be great to dominate our division and get over the curse of the Fish or whatever seems to take us over when we play them. But without looking at the records my sense is that we've played pretty well against the Mets and Braves over the last couple of years and been crushed by the Phils and Marlins. So let's put a big dent by sweeping the Braves but more importantly, the next time we face the Padres or whoever is 20 games below, we gotta beat the snot out of 'em.

GYFNG!!

ChicagoNatsGirl said...

Question: When do you see Roger Bernadina coming back?

jeff550 said...

1. Who do you see getting September call-ups.


2. Why does Rizzo hate Atahualpa Severino so much


LET ATAHUALPA PITCH!

Bzl. said...

Question: The Nats just announced (post trade deadline) Desmond bobblehead night for 8/20, against the Phillies. Since they have decided that it's a good thing to hand out hard projectiles to drunk Philly fans, shouldn't they have just saved Werth bobblehead night for then?

Steve M. said...

Mark, any chatter on extending RZim's contract or Laynce Nix?

Were you surprised Laynce Nix wasn't traded since he walks in 2 months, if not extended.

natsfan1a said...

The bobblehead promotions were set well before the trade deadline.

Unkyd said...

Peacock, Milone, Lombardozzi, Antonelli... One assumes we'd like to get a look at these guys. None are on the 40 man. I counted 38 on that roster, yesterday... Is anyone looking vulnerable, from a DFA standpoint? Mock, Slaten... I font think I get to watch the chat, on my iPhone, so if y'all touch on this, could someone please enter it as a comment, later on? Thanks

GYFNG!!!!

Jimmy said...

If Livan or Coffey get traded who replaces them?

Dawn said...

Morning Mr. Zuckerman; Questions I have in order of importance to me and probably nobody else.
1. What is Pudge's status, what is your best guess when he will be back?
2. Manager in 2012, who are your top two choices?
3. Do you think Livo will be back next year, if not will he retire?
Thanks as always for your great coverage.

NOVAHOOSIER said...

At the deadline Davey indicated that we'd be seeing both Peacock and Milone. It looks like Milone has been lined up to take over Zimmermann's rotation spot which gives us a pretty good idea of when he'll be up, when do you forsee Brad Peacock getting his chance?

Anonymous said...

"3. Do you think Livo will be back next year, if not will he retire?"

Jail is another option, hopefully remote.

Steve M. said...

Mark, what is up with Todd Coffey besides that ugly 4.04 ERA. He looks great against the 1st and 2nd batter and on cue falls apart usually after that.

His BA against in:
1) April .182
2) May .154
3) June .333
4) July .372

This trend is not going in the right direction, but where Coffey is great is 1st batter faced is .171 so my question is, why does Davey use him for anything but for 1 to 2 batters?

In his last 14 starts, he has only had 5 appearances where he hasn't allowed an earned run.

Water23 said...

Mark and Chase,

In not making a big trade the Nats made a statement that they are committed to developing their home grown talent. So,

1) What is the status of the Ryan Zimmerman extension talk? He is the best player and Face of the Franchise. Locking him up now would seem prudent and a way to show the fanbase that they are serious.
2) What is the status of draft signings. I see many teams have signed high picks including supplemental and first round. Are we likely to get all the top picks signed?
3)Is there a chance we sign Hawtin Buchanan or is he Ole Miss bound?

Anonymous said...

What moves do you see Rizzo making in the bullpen (besides Balester)? Do you see HenRod to the DL?

Both Stammen and Peacock project well as relievers. It may be why Davey has mentioned working young pitchers first in mop-up/relief, then starting. Have to assume that Stammen comes along with Peacock and Milone (and perhaps Meyers) with the September call-ups. Plus, they will continue to evaluate Wang unless he implodes.

September will be about evaluating the roster and who they have in-house with an eye toward 2012. It will not be about "respecting the game" and pitting washed up veterans against league contenders. EPIC FAIL on Riggleman.

Anonymous said...

But without looking at the records my sense is that we've played pretty well against the Mets and Braves over the last couple of years and been crushed by the Phils and Marlins.

Correct.

NattyButNoBoh said...

Who do you see getting called up when the rosters are expanded? Davey Johnson seems to be indicating that things will be vastly different from what they were when Jim Riggleman was in charge at season's end?

Anonymous said...

Davey responded to a question about using Storen by saying "Until he says 'Uncle." What does that mean? Until he burns out?

BartCrashley said...

Chase----keep your leg still!

A DC Wonk said...

Anonymous said...

Davey responded to a question about using Storen by saying "Until he says 'Uncle." What does that mean? Until he burns out?


I think his tongue was in his cheek. He clearly wants to use him as much as possible without burning him out.

Dave said...

I think Jon Heyman probably said the Nats were trade losers because they didn't trade for his favorite Nats manager, Jim Riggleman.

Of all the national media voices, Heyman was the one who said over and over again what a shame it was that Riggleman was treated so badly.

Which he wasn't. So I don't put a whole lot of stock in what Heyman says.

Anonymous said...

Damn young whippersnappers have never heard the expression, Say uncle." It's asking someone to give up; admit they've had enough; can't go on any longer.

Now get the hell off my lawn!

natsfan1a said...

Maybe he meant that he'd be soliciting bullpen management input from Unkyd? Nah. :-)

markfd said...

Mark - what do you see as waiver wire deals that might happen? who goes? (Livo?) who if anyone do we get? (Wandy?)

Dawn said...

Appreciate both you and Chase keeping us updated with all the Nats news.

Unkyd said...

Lol, 1A...! I'm the King of free advice.... Worth every nickel =^p

Anonymous said...

I wonder if Josh Byrnes -- DC boy that he is -- would consider the GM job for the Nats? Rizzo is dead man walking at this point, so might as well speculate on his replacement.

Bowdenball said...

I'm not usually a "_____" hates us!!! kind of guy. But in this case, it's true: Heyman flat-out does not like the Nationals. I don't know why, but this is hardly the first time he's badmouthed the organization. He was, for example, one of the few people who primarily blamed the organization and not Riggleman for that fiasco.

In this case he seems completely unaware of the value of compensatory picks. This may be because he's widely considered a Yankees' homer and they are usually giving away compensatory picks, not getting them. I can't say for sure if that affects his analysis, but it it plain as day that he doesn't "get" the value of these picks. It's right there in black and white. He weighs the value of moves made or not made for guys like Dunn and Soriano solely in terms of value to the team (very small when you're not in the playoff race) vs. lost value of prospects you could have received. For keeping Soriano, the Nats not only got his performance for two extra months in his greatest season, but they also got Josh Smoker and Jordan Zimmermann. Heyman thinks that was a bad move? That alone tells you what his opinion is worth.

Unkyd said...

Dead man walking?! A bold premise.... Care to make your case, Stranger?

A DC Wonk said...

Bowdenball writes:

For keeping Soriano, the Nats not only got his performance for two extra months in his greatest season, but they also got Josh Smoker and Jordan Zimmermann. Heyman thinks that was a bad move? That alone tells you what his opinion is worth.

Well, put, BB. I don't know much about Heyman, but this seems like a classic case of a little bit of knowledge combined with really lazy thinking and research, put together to make it sound authoritative, even though he has no idea what he's talking about -- and producing an opinion that's not worth the electricity to power up even the pixels used to produce it. (And, given how little electricity it takes to shine those pixels . . .

NatsJack in Florida said...

Unkyd... of course the "stranger" doesn't care to make his case. If he did, he'd have been commenting all along on the demise of Mike Rizzo. He's just one of those guys that pop up every time the Nats performance takes an uptick and his "69 win max" prediction gets closer to laughable.

He really thinks the Lerners are going to eat 3 years of Rizzo's contract?

Mark'd said...

Late to the party over here. Heyman didn't criticize Rizzo for any good reason unless he wanted to discuss Bourn. This was a good "just say no" to Span. Hood move on Gomes and Hairston and I didn't like the return on Marquis.

I am not a Rizzo fan because I think he needs time to get better and way to soon to judge. The best move he made was walking away from the CF on Span just wish he Hung in there on Bourn.

natsfan1a said...

We kid because we love, Unk. :-)

Unkyd said...

Lol, 1A...! I'm the King of free advice.... Worth every nickel =^p
August 2, 2011 2:14 PM

Mark'd said...

Whoops, good move on Gomes and Hairston.

Bowdenball said...

Glad I'm not alone in hating Heyman. He is the one of the worst baseball writers around. Not only does he have no conception of the value of supplemental picks in determining the best course of action for future Type A or Type B free agents, he also trashes deals not made without telling us what was offered. If the Twins' final offer was, say, Storen, Lombardozzi and Desmond for Span, I think we all (even Heyman) would agree that the Nats were right to not make the deal.

There's really only two possible explanations: either he hates the Nats to the point that it affects his ability to write about baseball objectively, or he lacks a fundamental understanding of player value. Either way, he's a writer that should be ignored by serious baseball fans. There's plenty better analysis to be found out there, including the guy who created this blog.

NatsJack in Florida said...

The two places I NEVER go for my baseball info is SI and ESPN.

That would be like going to Fox News for my general info.

Anonymous said...

"he lacks a fundamental understanding of player value."

We have a winner!!

I only use ESPN for boxscores and stats.

Anonymous said...

A final tribute to Matt Stairs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiJwoNSLRwg&feature=player_embedded

MurrayTheRed said...

I agree on SI and ESPN not being the best place for baseball info (with the exception of KLaw)

And besides everyone knows the DrudgeReport is the best place for general news info.

A DC Wonk said...

I have a question on Bourn:

Bourn was traded for _four_ players. Do we know what the Astros were asking from the Nats? If not, perhaps Rizzo _did_ make the best deal, by not trading the farm for him.

Anonymous said...

Heyman hates the Nationals organization because they are easy to hate. They do stupid stuff a lot. Not moving Dunn last year. Werth at $126M. Pudge for that money; Wang (both times). Rizzo says Ace is job one last year cannot land one. Jonny Gomes. Last place every year in memory and knocking on it for 2011 -- while they play in a big market with high ticket prices and low payroll in a publicly financed shiny new park with the richest owners going. This is not the kind of stuff that makes the talking heads and columnists gush about a club. Add Mike Rizzo's press problems with Eckstein and him not being able to manage the Riggleman situation, depending on who you believe; plus Rizzo not being willing to send a blocked 2B prospect who may be at his ceiling in Lombardozzi with Storen (whom he was willing to move) for the guy he wanted in Span (Ladson's report of the deal, I think) and you're not making Heyman or anyone else give you the benefit of the doubt much.

I am not ready to say dead man walking on Rizzo, but Mike is not exactly lighting it up in this gig. He has made some nice moves of course, but he has had some big swings and misses in the job as the club limps along hoping not to finish in the basement, as if that would be some big leap forward. 2012 will be Rizzo's third full season and Zimmerman is a FA in 2013. Mike has to feel some pressure.

dfh21

Steve M. said...

On the Rizzo haters, he isn't going anywhere as he is a work in progress. Rizzo will be applauded if he gets Rendon, Meyer, Goodwin and Purke signed and this is where he is at his best.

I think the Tampa Bay duo of Friedman and Maddon are the best collectively in the business and Sabean and Bochy have done a great job. You probably don't want your Manager to be a "yes man" which Maddon and Bochy aren't. Riggleman and Rizzo never got on the same page. I think if the truth ever comes out many will have a better understanding for Riggleman and really what he endured here. I think Rizzo will catch on and he saved himself walking away on Span and Upton especially.

It takes a real GM to manage a low payroll and win consistently. It also takes a lot of skill and some luck.

I give him a B+ for the job he did at the tradeline if he gets Laynce Nix extended since he should have been traded and I thought he was light on Jason Marquis. He did a great job walking away on Span and wish he got in on Bourn as the Braves stole him. At least other GMs won't look at him as a pushover like he was painted to be. "Know when to walk away, know when to run".

Bowdenball said...

dfh21:

The Nats got Alex Mayer (23rd overall pick) and Brian Goodwin (34th overall pick) in exchange for the loss of Dunn in the 2011 draft. Setting aside the value of Dunn's baseball over two months, do you know if the prospects offered for Dunn at the 2010 trade deadline were better than those two premium prospects?

I suspect you don't, since nobody really knows exactly what was offered. And I could say the same thing about Gomes, who is worth a supplemental pick as well if we don't re-sign him that will likely be more valuable than Rhinehart + Manno.

Your problem is the same as Heyman's- you don't really understand the value of compensatory picks, so you trash inaction as if it has no value rather than dealing with the fact that you don't understand the value and, even if you did, don't have enough information to know how it compared to the alternative course of action.

NatsJack in Florida said...

How do you think Kenny Williams is judged on HIS move with Dunn?

And I think you'll get a much different take on Rizzo if you go to Baseball America or Fangraphs instead of the Walmart of sports reporting.

NatsJack in Florida said...

Steve M... Even if Rizzo doesn't extend Nix, he's a Tybe "B" and will provide a decent sandwich pick.

Steve M. said...

dfh21 said...
Heyman hates the Nationals organization because they are easy to hate. They do stupid stuff a lot. Not moving Dunn last year. Werth at $126M. Pudge for that money; Wang (both times). Rizzo says Ace is job one last year cannot land one. Jonny Gomes. Last place every year in memory and knocking on it for 2011 -- while they play in a big market with high ticket prices and low payroll in a publicly financed shiny new park with the richest owners going. This is not the kind of stuff that makes the talking heads and columnists gush about a club. Add Mike Rizzo's press problems with Eckstein and him not being able to manage the Riggleman situation, depending on who you believe; plus Rizzo not being willing to send a blocked 2B prospect who may be at his ceiling in Lombardozzi with Storen (whom he was willing to move) for the guy he wanted in Span (Ladson's report of the deal, I think) and you're not making Heyman or anyone else give you the benefit of the doubt much.

I am not ready to say dead man walking on Rizzo, but Mike is not exactly lighting it up in this gig. He has made some nice moves of course, but he has had some big swings and misses in the job as the club limps along hoping not to finish in the basement, as if that would be some big leap forward. 2012 will be Rizzo's third full season and Zimmerman is a FA in 2013. Mike has to feel some pressure.

dfh21

August 2, 2011 4:24 PM


Well written and you make some really strong points but I still support holding firm on Dunn and what they wanted on him. Supposedly they wanted Jackson and Beckham from the White Sox and ended up not doing the deal because Kenny Williams said NO. I just think the Dunn part gives you Meyer and Goodwin like Soriano gave you Smoker and Jordan Zimmermann.

Rizzo/Kasten pulled off the best trade last year in Capps for Ramos. They didn't get what they wanted on Dunn so they held and stepped back.

Sometimes GMs make moves to dump payroll like Ed Wade on the other hand felt he needed to make other teams better on Bourn and Pence trading 2 very good players and probably didn't shop enough as the Bourn trade was very weak.

Rizzo is still learning and just needs to see the bigger picture. I go with Bernadina and get Lorenzo Cain here as his platoon partner and work on the bullpen and a #3 pitcher. Get extensions on Zim and Morse. This team will be 80+ wins next year with very few moves.

Steve M. said...

NatsJack in Florida said...
Steve M... Even if Rizzo doesn't extend Nix, he's a Tybe "B" and will provide a decent sandwich pick.

August 2, 2011 4:36 PM


Great point. I really like what he has done. I don't want to go all Austin Kearns and give him the world, the moon the stars but it would be nice to keep him around if "the price is right".

Like you said, you get a Draft Pick if he walks.

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