Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Baseball America's Top 10 prospects

Every winter, Baseball America ranks the top 10 prospects from every organization. These rankings obviously aren't the end-all, be-all, but BA is pretty much considered the authority when it comes to the minor leagues and amateur baseball, so their words do carry some weight.

The Nationals' top 10 was released this morning, and to no one's surprise the name at the top of the list is Bryce Harper. I would suspect Harper will also wind up as BA's No. 1 prospect in baseball when those rankings come out later this winter.

Here's the full Nats top 10...

1. Bryce Harper
2. Derek Norris
3. Danny Espinosa
4. A.J. Cole
5. Wilson Ramos
6. Sammy Solis
7. Cole Kimball
8. Eury Perez
9. Chris Marrero
10. Brad Peacock

It's worth noting that three of the top six guys were drafted this year: Harper, Cole and Solis. Baseball America does tend to focus, however, on recent draft picks and guys in the lower minors. You won't usually find many guys on this list who spent last season at Class AAA.

For comparison's sake, here's last year's top 10 according to the magazine...

LAST YEAR'S TOP 10
1. Stephen Strasburg
2. Derek Norris
3. Drew Storen
4. Ian Desmond
5. Danny Espinosa
6. Chris Marrero
7. Jeff Kobernus
8. Justin Maxwell
9. Michael Burgess
10. Destin Hood

You can read an overview of this year's top 10 on Baseball America's website. Detailed profiles of each player are available only to subscribers.

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

They still consider Maxwell a prospect?

Mark Zuckerman said...

That was last year. Players who still have rookie status (fewer than 130 big-league ABs or fewer than 50 innings pitched) are eligible for their prospect rankings.

Sue Dinem said...

I was actually a little surprised Kimball got named vs. either J.P. Ramirez or Robbie Ray. Nice to see that Brad Peacock and Eury Perez got some recognition as well.

Dan said...

I think it is also interesting who they project as the 2014 starting lineup:

Catcher: Wilson Ramos
First Base: Derek Norris
Second Base: Danny Espinosa
Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman
Shortstop: Ian Desmond
Left Field: Jayson Werth
Center Field: Eury Perez
Right Field: Bryce Harper
No. 1 Starter: Stephen Strasburg
No. 2 Starter: Jordan Zimmerman
No. 3 Starter: A.J. Cole
No. 4 Starter: Sammy Solis
No. 5 Starter: John Lannan
Closer: Drew Storen

Obviously they don't project trades/free agent signings, but this projected lineup reflects very well on the past two Rizzo drafts.

Anonymous said...

I think it is both interesting and telling that Marrero was on last year's list of top prospects but is absent from this year's list. I agree with posters here who have said he is limited and likely a DH in the AL. Our need for pitching make Cole and Solis's presence on this list good news.
fpcsteve

Anonymous said...

Mark,
Aside from Ramos, Marrero, and Espinosa - who from the list might we see in Viera?

Steve M. said...

Wow, Derek Norris at 1st base. Didn't we suggest that here on NatsInsider last month?

Mark Zuckerman said...

Well, they'll all be in Viera this spring. But as far as who will be in big-league camp ... Harper, Espinosa, Ramos, Kimball and Marrero are all on the 40-man roster, so they have to be there. Of the others, I would think the Nats will extend non-roster invitees to Norris, Solis and Peacock. Only Cole (who is fresh out of high school) and Perez (who hasn't reached high-A yet) figure to be restricted to minor-league camp.

Pauloyd said...

Gee, and we almost traded 4 of our projected 2014 starting lineup spots for Greinke, who would be long gone by then.

PAY TO PLAY said...

Also of interest that Ryan Zimmerman is projected as the 2014 starting 3rd baseman even though he is only signed through 2013.

These projections are fun to look at keeping in mind how tough it is to project the 2011 starting lineup being just about 3 months away.

Who's on 1st, what's on 2nd, etc.

Donald said...

Mark -- Do you agree with this list? Any thoughts on Tyler Moore or Steve Lombardozzi?

Anonymous said...

Has Destin Hood regressed? I thought he was still in the mix.

Anonymous said...

Destin is progressing "ok". Hit .285 in low A last year but had a pretty low slugging percentage. This year at Potomac will be crucial for his development.

Sunderland said...

I think this is correct:

1. Bryce Harper – 2010 (1)
2. Derek Norris – 2007 (4)
3. Danny Espinosa – 2008 (3)
4. A.J. Cole – 2010 (4)
5. Wilson Ramos - Trade
6. Sammy Solis – 2010 (2)
7. Cole Kimball – 2006 (12)
8. Eury Perez – Int'l Non Drafted FA (DR)
9. Chris Marrero – 2006 (2)
10. Brad Peacock – 2006 (41)

2010 draft - 3
2009 draft - none (plus Strasburg and Storen)
2008 draft - 1
2007 draft - 1 (plus Zimmermann and Detwiler)
2006 draft - 3
Trade - 1
International - 1

Looks like BA likes our 2010 draft. Me too.
Hope 2 years from now there's another international FA or two on the board.

Doc said...

Derek Norris ahead of Espy and Ramos? Hmmmmmmm?

Sofa said...

"Dan said...
I think it is also interesting who they project as the 2014 starting lineup"
So what does the 2014 Marlins lineup look like?

Sofa said...

"PAY TO PLAY said...
Also of interest that Ryan Zimmerman is projected as the 2014 starting 3rd baseman even though he is only signed through 2013."

I don't know where else they might have put him.

Anonymous said...

Marrero keeps slipping year by year. He's not even decent marginal bait any longer. Chalk it up as another Bowden blunder.

PAY TO PLAY said...

http://twitter.com/NatsTownNews/statuses/17648082833375232

Mark - How is this possible? I thought Chico had to clear waivers first?

DFL said...

Tyler Moore and Steven Lombardozzi should be on the list, especially Moore. He jumped from 9 to 31 homers in one season, a sign of a maturing player. One negative is his BB to K ratio, a sign that he must better master the strike zone. Lombardozzi, the son of an ex-player, showed that he might be major league material.

Anonymous said...

Tyler Moore is an older prospect with a gigantic hole in his swing. He should be in AAA by now. He hit 30 in Potomac. As a means for comparison Corey Brown also hit 30 in A+ ball. He needs to continue the trend in AA and AAA for it to be considered a real improvement.

JayB said...

Our top 10 should not be about a player "who might be MLB Material".....a farm system should be able to boost 10 players who are sure fire MLB starters at some point in their development trajectory baring injury.

If we only have Steve L types who might someday get a shot then we still suck as a system....which we do thanks to Lerners false promises of spending on player development and the draft in Plan 1.0-4.0.....Such a waste of 2006-1010 drafts.

Oh and I told you Norris can not catch and that Chris M has the worst footwork in baseball.....BA report confirms both of these observations.

Theophilus said...

What these lists illustrate is the weak coverage of the Nats prospects by the local media. Mark Z. can't be everywhere, so we're stuck w/ regurgitations of self-serving Nats front office pronouncements in the Gazette (a/k/a the Post) and more pablum from nationals.com (useless), MASN and other outlets more interested in hyping their product than trenchant, unbiased, qualified observations. So we don't know the people on these lists, are surprised to see their names (or not see them) and are easily misled about the quality of the talent in the pipeline.

The difference between last year's list and this year's is more likely attributable to the overall poor level of talent in the system last year than to the superiority of the talent taken in this year's draft. Marrero will be the prime example until he proves otherwise.

I'm still waiting for someone in the know to tell us whether Moore is a real prospect or Steve Bilko.

alexva said...

JayB - I think "sucks" is a bit harsh, but then again not totally unexpected as your opinion. I think you'd have to expect that there are 10 players in our system that will become MLB regulars though I would caution against using the term sure fire. Some of them are deep in the system right now like Peacock and Kimball were when they were drafted. Come on, it's Christmas, put away the bah humbug for a while.

Anonymous said...

Such a waste of 2006-1010 drafts

Which part of Strasburg, Storen, and Harper didn't you like Jaybee? AJ Cole and Robbie Ray? So bad that no one thought Rizzo would get them signed and worried about it. Why? Because of Christmas's of Bowdens past. One year he failed to sign his first rounder. Most of Bowden's picks were high risk prep and high school players. But they were cheaper.

Bowden sold a kettle of fish to the Lerners. Told them he was so brilliant he could create a winner on the cheap. Just as in TB and FLA. What he failed to mention was the fact they had far superior scouting and player development. It took TB over a decade to get that.

Bowden was a scheister stereotypical con-man user car sales man. Not a true respected baseball man as Rizzo is.

N. Cognito said...

I wonder how many MLB teams fit JayB's profile of what their respective top 10 prospect lists should entail.

Probably few or none.

DFL said...

Moore is 23. Brown is 24.

mwyche said...

@Theophilus: If you really want to follow Nats Prospects you can go to nationalsprospects.com, also if your interested in prospects and want outsider opinions of them minorleagueball.com is a great site for that.

Anonymous said...

JayB is the Henry VIII of Nats fans. If ever he spies something he doesn't like in a Nats player or prospect, it's off with their head! If the Nats had to field a team with players who have the JayB seal of approval, the field would be empty.

JayB is nothing but a clueless, semi-illiterate hater. Pay him no mind.

pdowdy83 said...

JayB sometimes you make valid points and then other times you sound so uninformed it is disturbing. The Nats have spent over $22 million on the draft the last 2 years under Rizzo. Those drafts have yielded Storen, Strasburg, AJ Morris, Harper, Solis, Cole, Ray and a few more players that have potential. You can't say that from 2006 - 2010 have been "such a waste of drafts." That is just nothing more than complaining just for the sake of complaining.

Yes Bowden had some bad drafts while he was GM and we are paying for that now but the last 2 have gone a long way to restocking an awful farm system. It has to be a good sign when the minor league players of the year(Moore and Millone) aren't even in our top 10.

Dan said...

@Sofa:

2014 Florida Marlins:

Catcher: Kyle Skipworth
First Base: Logan Morrison
Second Base: Chris Coghlan
Third Base: Matt Dominguez
Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez
Left Field: Christian Yelich
Center Field: Scott Cousins
Right Field: Mike Stanton
No. 1 Starter: Josh Johnson
No. 2 Starter: Chad James
No. 3 Starter: Ricky Nolasco
No. 4 Starter: Anibal Sanchez
No. 5 Starter: Brad Hand
Closer: Jhan Marinez

Anonymous said...

Just for fun, here is the BA projected lineup for 2011 (this came out 11/2007

Catcher Jesus Flores
First Base Chris Marrero
Second Base Stephen King
Third Base Ryan Zimmerman
Shortstop Ian Desmond
Left Field Wily Mo Pena
Center Field Justin Maxwell
Right Field Michael Burgess
No. 1 Starter Ross Detwiler
No. 2 Starter Collin Balester
No. 3 Starter Jack McGeary
No. 4 Starter Josh Smoker
No. 5 Starter Jordan Zimmerman
Closer Chad Cordero

Here's the top ten from that year:
1. Chris Marrero, of/1b
2. Ross Detwiler, lhp
3. Collin Balester, rhp
4. Michael Burgess, of
5. Jack McGeary, lhp
6. Josh Smoker, lhp
7. Jordan Zimmerman, rhp
8. Glenn Gibson, lhp
9. Justin Maxwell, of
10. Colton Willems, rhp

JayB said...

I agree SS in 2009 and 2010 draft are much better and Rizzo is responsible for a huge upgrade but still look above to see just how bad 2006/7/8 were and most of 9 besides SS...Storen?..... is just a short term solution. He is very hittable and does not have any single pitch that it not very hittable....that is why they are very willing to trade him.

Love Zimm and Flores before he was hurt. Like Danny E and Jason W a lot. Ian D in the outfield would be great, but not at SS. SS is pretty good too hope he comes back strong.

JaneB said...

I had no idea about those sites to track the baby players. Thanks mwyche! And how fun to see the imagined starting line up for 2010 from 2007, and for 2014.

I've been filling out holiday cards (I know, I'm late) and every time I write something about "the season" being bright or something, I know I'm SUPPOSED to mean now, but REALLY I'm meaning the baseball season. That's just nutty. How I thought I could give up the seats for next year, bad as we will be, is also nutty. There may be no one standing on first base, but I'll still be there.

So, season's greetings you all. In ALL senses of the word.

Arlington BigFish said...

Who's the pitcher we were paying to go to Stanford -- McGeary? Has he disappeared from the radar screen?

NatsNut said...

McGeary = tommy john surgery this year.

JayB said...

NatsNut....McGeary = bust

He never pitched well anywhere in 4 years as a pro and demoted 3 times backwards from low A ball.

NatsJack in Florida said...

McGeary will not turn 22 until late Spring Training. He's always exhibited a strong K to innings pitched ratio, but JayB is coorrect that his other stats aren't good.

I would hesitate to throw such a young, rehabilitated arm on the scrap heap, but we all know JayB's "woe is us" approach to everything.

natsfan1a said...

Hey, JaneB, you're not the only one doing cards this week. Glad to hear that things are looking brighter for you, as I was rather concerned. (Off)seasons greetings to you and the rest of the NI crowd! Hope there might be at least one more big gift placed under the Natsmas tree before Saturday...

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