tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post7535390444649701335..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: Nats vs. Astros - 3/26/12Mark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger130125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-43500690410633660982012-03-27T11:07:20.941-04:002012-03-27T11:07:20.941-04:00Thanks Dave. Almost never when the guy swings eve...Thanks Dave. Almost never when the guy swings even if it a terrible pitch is ruled q wild pitch. IF it was close enough to swing, it is close enough to stop. Being a wild pitch would make it earned.Manassas Nats Fannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-14980477037811126742012-03-27T06:40:11.129-04:002012-03-27T06:40:11.129-04:00pssst...is everybody still gone? What if he was aw...pssst...is everybody still gone? What if he was awarded more than one wreath? Anyhoo, off to have some coffee, rest on my laurels, that type of thing. :-)natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-69296250757958683772012-03-27T06:32:13.582-04:002012-03-27T06:32:13.582-04:00LOL, so that was you the whole time back in the da...LOL, so that was you the whole time back in the day on NJ?<br /><br />Section 3, My Sofa said...<br /><br /> OK, is everybody gone? Is it safe?<br /><br /><br /> A kudos. Kudos is singular. It's a laurel wreath. A kudos.<br /> March 26, 2012 7:41 PMnatsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-64976832723056881912012-03-26T23:16:18.782-04:002012-03-26T23:16:18.782-04:00Manassas Nats Fan
It was ruled a wild pitch instea...Manassas Nats Fan<br />It was ruled a wild pitch instead of a passed ball, so it counts as an earned run against the pitcher. (It really seems like anything that gets the batter to swing shouldn't be allowed to be called a wild pitch, but that would be too logical)Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-52927773654297888722012-03-26T19:41:49.361-04:002012-03-26T19:41:49.361-04:00OK, is everybody gone? Is it safe?
A kudos. Kudo...OK, is everybody gone? Is it safe?<br /><br /><br /><b>A <i>kudos</i>.</b> Kudos is singular. It's a laurel wreath. A kudos.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-31312014384425882542012-03-26T18:54:41.642-04:002012-03-26T18:54:41.642-04:00Leave us not forget that Bugs was no slouch on the...Leave us not forget that Bugs was no slouch <a href="http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/03/12/bugs-bunny-greatest-banned-player-ever/" rel="nofollow">on the field,</a> either.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-12048505338245943412012-03-26T18:32:19.026-04:002012-03-26T18:32:19.026-04:00Yeah? Bugs proved the world was round by throwing ...Yeah? Bugs proved the world was round by throwing a baseball around it and getting it stamped through customs on the way. That's enough physics for me.DWSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-64003631372093743202012-03-26T18:29:12.929-04:002012-03-26T18:29:12.929-04:00Maybe I missed it in a note hear, but from reading...Maybe I missed it in a note hear, but from reading Mark's write up, why is it 2 ER, The second run was the guy who got on base on pass ball on a strike out. He should have never been on base,, That run should be unearned for sure, unless I missed something in the translation.Manassas Nats Fannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-19689547700115277522012-03-26T17:26:02.060-04:002012-03-26T17:26:02.060-04:00Wonk: feel might call you crazy but by my calcula...Wonk: feel might call you crazy but by my calculations if you were only betting the anons a dollar on each of their statements you have still made well over $1000 so far and the season hasn't even started.<br /><br />As one who failed statistics in graduate school (my advisor was the damn teacher as well) I scrolled through most of that dialogue faster then most of Peric's stuff.<br /><br />While on the treadmill today I watched the Red Sox vs. Phillies. Lester totally shut them down going 7 innings and I think the final was 6-0.<br />Phillies really do have some issues with their GM saying there was not even a timeline for either Utley or Howard. Howard's injury is particularly troubling in that he is fighting an infection and until that gets cleared up he can't begin to rehab his achilles injury. I am not sure of this but I think I saw Lance Nix playing 3rd base but it could have been left field and he was just coming in on a popup. <br /><br />Off to read the next post.<br /><br />Go Nats!!sjm308https://www.blogger.com/profile/01236550495879254916noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-27892363305537947182012-03-26T16:50:09.335-04:002012-03-26T16:50:09.335-04:00FeelWood wrote:
Boswell is clearly insane. But fo...FeelWood wrote:<br /><br /><i>Boswell is clearly insane. But for that matter, so are you.</i><br /><br />I apparently overlooked where you had turned into one of those posters that throws insults at others. I'm sorry to see that.<br /><br />One of the Anonys, after talking about central limit theorems and normal distributions (which also have absolutely nothing to do with this) wrote: <i>DC WONK can never know those things so how in Texas should Boz? How would anyone?</i><br /><br />Actually, one <i>can</i> make a determination by timing how long it took from the crack of the bat until it hit the object. All one needs is time and distance, and one can compute the angle.<br /><br /><i>we use the fact that standard normal distributions occur frequently in nature </i><br /><br />Projectiles _never_ follow a curve that resembles a normal distribution. Did you ever see a batted ball start off as flat off the bat for a while, and then rise up quickly, then come down quickly, and then flatten out before it hits the ground?A DC Wonknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-13627393989449830052012-03-26T16:37:15.479-04:002012-03-26T16:37:15.479-04:00Some threads just go off the track early. Happens ...Some threads just go off the track early. Happens to the best of them. Go get 'em in the next post.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-32101100992515400912012-03-26T16:28:43.241-04:002012-03-26T16:28:43.241-04:00We need some real baseball. Not even winning is ge...We need some real baseball. Not even winning is getting through to these guys anymore.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-48230844308731044732012-03-26T16:28:00.946-04:002012-03-26T16:28:00.946-04:00And why can I look at it statistically rather than...And why can I look at it statistically rather than dynamically? Because the ball landed. its no longer in motion. I would use dynamics to predict where a moving projectile will move to next but you would need velocity, trajectory, acceleration. You would have to know how fast the ball was moving when the bat hit it ... the angle of trajectory etc. <br /><br />DC WONK can never know those things so how in Texas should Boz? How would anyone? SO, we use the fact that standard normal distributions occur frequently in nature and look an awful lot like Dr. DC Wonk daughter's parabola. It is now "fixed" and "static" in time because it is no longer moving. We can then use the approximate landing spot to estimate the possible total distance interval (and that's what everyone is interested in ... not how fast the ball was traveling, nor its angle.)<br /><br />Solve the problem not your daughter's homework Wonk.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-74503348021230896602012-03-26T16:19:00.037-04:002012-03-26T16:19:00.037-04:00A DC Wonk said...
FeelWood wrote:
You don't ...<i>A DC Wonk said... <br />FeelWood wrote:<br /><br />You don't agree that the point where a ball hits a tree, the point where the ball would have hit the ground had it not hit the tree, and the point at the base of the tree form a triangle? Sounds like you're the one who doesn't know what he's doing.<br /><br />FeelWood, unlike some of the others here, I try not to pontificate on stuff unless I know what I'm talking about. I know a lot more about projectile motion and the math involved than you think.<br /><br />If you want to approximate it as a triangle, go ahead. It's not going to work with many angles, but, I'll play along. But you still have no idea of the length of the other sides! None at all.</i><br /><br />Again, I'm not triangulating anything. I'm merely pointing out what Boswell did and saying that there was nothing wrong with the assumption he made about the path of the ball <i>on the last ten feet or so of a 500 foot trajectory</i> and the way he calculated it out. You're the one saying it was wrong. But you miss the point, again. Kilgore says Bos <i>eyeballed</i> the distance the ball traveled to the outfield fence, yet he goes to higher math to estimate the last 10-15 of the distance. Boswell is clearly insane. But for that matter, so are you.Feel Woodnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-50635767046399131362012-03-26T16:13:14.797-04:002012-03-26T16:13:14.797-04:00the mean is somewhere between 489 and 492 feet.
S...<i>the mean is somewhere between 489 and 492 feet.</i><br /><br />Sorry, not the mean ... the x-bar or z-score depending ... since this is an estimated standard normal distribution curve.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-90946913847646220142012-03-26T16:11:30.818-04:002012-03-26T16:11:30.818-04:00Similarly, if Werth hit it at 40 degrees, it would...<i>Similarly, if Werth hit it at 40 degrees, it would have traveled an extra 14 feet.</i><br /><br />Which, if you had read Kllgore's post carefully Boz took into account. What Boz managed to do was get a rough estimate of the area underneath YOUR curve Wonk. So, we now have a an x' distribution. We can safely assume that your "parabola" can be considered a standard normal distribution since it often occurs in nature. In other words: CENTRAL LIMIT theorem? Right? <br /><br />My God dosey dolts and little lambsey ivies a diddly didy do wouldn't you?<br /><br />In any case Boz's calculations appear to give a decent level of confidence at least greater than .9. Now we examine his confidence interval and its between 489 and 492 feet. We can safely assume but the central limit theorem that the mean is somewhere between 489 and 492 feet. Because of the central limit theorem his measurements and estimates based on eye-witness testimonies are likely valid. NOT perfect.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-58869769278362935262012-03-26T16:08:52.746-04:002012-03-26T16:08:52.746-04:00Can't look at pretty picture. Ignoring math. P...Can't look at pretty picture. Ignoring math. Physics? Fuhgeddaboudit. Visualizing blog peace now...<br /><br />A DC Wonk said...<br /><br /> Thanks, Cease.<br /><br /> To all, ignore all the math and look at the nice color picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ideal_projectile_motion_for_different_angles.svg. You can see that the length of the homerun has 100% to do with how hard it's hit, and what angle it's hit. It's a nice pic. While you're looking at it, visualize Nats players hitting home runs ;-)<br /> March 26, 2012 4:04 PMnatsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-50644878144612500332012-03-26T16:07:04.904-04:002012-03-26T16:07:04.904-04:00Or I should say, good to "read" that Lan...Or I should say, good to "read" that Lannan pitched well :)Cwjnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-30628127123992531002012-03-26T16:06:01.061-04:002012-03-26T16:06:01.061-04:00Anything involving Pythagoras and geometry gives m...Anything involving Pythagoras and geometry gives me a headache.<br /><br />Good to see Lannan pitch well.<br /><br />Rodriguez has been very sharp this spring. I definitely would be on board with him filling in for Storen.<br />I have a feeling Davey will alternate Henry and Lidge, which would be fine as well.Cwjnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-38356545208013334812012-03-26T16:04:51.220-04:002012-03-26T16:04:51.220-04:00Holy cow, it feels like everyone is hanging out in...Holy cow, it feels like everyone is hanging out in the basement of the Science Building today!! <br /><br />Who cares how Boz came about his hypothesis? Here's the only answer we need on the Werth home run:<br /><br />He hit it hard. He hit it far.<br /><br />You're welcome.erocks33noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-79886389564973228262012-03-26T16:04:48.491-04:002012-03-26T16:04:48.491-04:00Thanks, Cease.
To all, ignore all the math and lo...Thanks, Cease.<br /><br />To all, ignore all the math and look at the nice color picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ideal_projectile_motion_for_different_angles.svg. You can see that the length of the homerun has 100% to do with how hard it's hit, and what angle it's hit. It's a nice pic. While you're looking at it, visualize Nats players hitting home runs ;-)A DC Wonknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-17800639306562263762012-03-26T16:02:31.884-04:002012-03-26T16:02:31.884-04:00Hey Beavis, if I wanted to do math, I'd go to ...Hey Beavis, if I wanted to do math, I'd go to school.Butt-Headhttp://www.mtv.com/shows/beavis_and_butthead/series.jhtmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-54816553328336160562012-03-26T16:01:25.459-04:002012-03-26T16:01:25.459-04:00Well the wino measured it at 602 feet. I don't...Well the wino measured it at 602 feet. I don't give a rats behind about any triangle nonsense. I'll take his word for it. Move onAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-28057106243299982612012-03-26T16:01:09.816-04:002012-03-26T16:01:09.816-04:00A degree in Math? From where? The K-Mart?
You kno...<i>A degree in Math? From where? The K-Mart?</i><br /><br />You know, I'm actually trying to explain things, rather than insult others.A DC Wonknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-26991472755556474612012-03-26T16:00:46.394-04:002012-03-26T16:00:46.394-04:00A DC Wonk said...
I feel educated now. thanks W...A DC Wonk said... <br /><br />I feel educated now. thanks Wonk...Cease the Opportunitynoreply@blogger.com