tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post708650954431465366..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: The rotation minus StrasburgMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-63996214831868378132010-08-30T18:25:19.627-04:002010-08-30T18:25:19.627-04:00I don't understand what people have against gr...I don't understand what people have against groundball pitchers. I love Strasburg and his strikeouts but getting hitters out by contact is a better art than strikeout. I am completely fine with Lannan, Marquis and Livo as part of our rotation with Lannan as the opening day starter. Like I said in my other post @ Livo's extension, we should build our team around defense. Try to improve our infield defense this offseason.<br /><br />But then resigning Dunn doesn't make sense. I believe Dunn can improve his defense, simply by realizing when to come off the bag to get an errant throw. As far as my understanding goes, most errors we commit are throwing. Zimm and Desmond can work on hitting Adam on the head in the winter, while we get a good defensive 2B. Our infield is #2 - SS Desmond, #3 - 3B Ryan, #4 - 1B Dunn, and #8 - 2B FA. The second baseman has to be really good defensive for us to ignore his offensive production.<br /><br />Two of our OF positions should be anchored by Hammer (LF - #5) and Roger (RF - #6). As for CF, I hope we try to get BJ Upton from Rays as a lead off hitter. Someone can confirm but I think Upton is good defensively. He is also fast so we are not lacking speed on basepaths. I would say a better proven stealer than Morgan. I didn't mean to get into discussing everyday lineup but pitching lead to it.<br />Our everyday lineup may look like, CF - Upton, SS - Desmond, 3B - Ryan, 1B - Dunn, LF - Josh, RF - Roger, C - Ramos, 2B - FA, Pitcher. Morgan and Morse are part of bench. Not sure who can be our infield backups, maybe kennedy and alberto. Bullpen is made of stammen, clippard, storen, burnett, etc.<br /><br />Anyways, I am totally against going after high price FA. There won't be any difference between us and yankees. Crawford, Werth, Lee, etc are all going to ask for 100 million and more. I don't see the point in wasting the money right now.Faraz Shaikhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00633161449674428190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-13134733503477613452010-08-30T18:23:22.601-04:002010-08-30T18:23:22.601-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Faraz Shaikhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00633161449674428190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-20973176072858558992010-08-30T17:40:44.218-04:002010-08-30T17:40:44.218-04:00Here is how I view it:
We got nothing out of Mar...Here is how I view it:<br /><br /> We got nothing out of Marquis this year mainly due to an injury; it's not crazy to expect 8 extra wins from him next year; it's not crazy to expect 5 extra wins from Lannan.Zimermann will take some of the starts given to Martin and Atilano but also some pitched by SS so overall maybe he gives us 5 more wins. If Maya contributes something positive compared to what we got from Olsen we should be OK.<br /><br /> I am not saying that we will win 20 extra games as the math above may indicate (Livo will regress) but I am saying that there is reasonable potential for a 10 game improvement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-73499062355692689982010-08-30T16:49:40.617-04:002010-08-30T16:49:40.617-04:00Znn, Marquis, Lannan, Livo...That's ok if ever...Znn, Marquis, Lannan, Livo...That's ok if everything works out but it could be very weak if someone gets hurt or can't step up--as happened this year. We need a solid free agent starter and a closer. I'm not ready to turn that over to Storen. We can't lose ground in the pen.JamesFannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-91548415958541613562010-08-30T16:46:00.698-04:002010-08-30T16:46:00.698-04:00I'm not so pessimistic about this rotation. A...I'm not so pessimistic about this rotation. As Mark wrote, its not championship caliber without Strasburg, but Lannan and Marquis have been better pitchers throughout their careers and both guys struggled due to injuries this year. I do agree in an ideal rotation Lannan is a 3 or 4 and Marquis is a 4 or 5. Hernandez will be OK. Even in 2009, he had his share of quality starts, but when he wasn't on he wasn't effective at all, hence the higher ERA. Hopefully, we get the Hernandez who has been pitching this year. Zimmermann definitely has top of the rotation stuff. He just needs the experience and Maya is the wildcard. <br /><br />I also hope Detwiler and Stammen are given opportunities for the rotation. Excluding Maya, because I haven't seen him pitch, I believe these 2 guys have the best stuff other than Zimmermann. In the case of Stammen, he hasn't developed the consistency yet, and in the case of Detwiler, he hasn't got the chance to prove himself because of injury, but I really like these 2 guys' potential.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-90511712493628031042010-08-30T16:29:39.050-04:002010-08-30T16:29:39.050-04:00NatsFan2005, thats not entirely correct. Livo can...NatsFan2005, thats not entirely correct. Livo can have another lucky year, so could Lannan. Maya could be better than advertised. Zimmermann can exceed #3 pitcher expectations. Wang could come back from injury AND be the pitcher he was. Some pitcher not on the radar right now could contribute in a big way. The Nats could get some good bats or some of their hitters could improve. The defense could get better. Anything is possible but there are a lot of if's here at this stage of the "Plan." And relying on the averages of the performance of the players to date, the expected rotation is pretty lousy.Natmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-10398316723024363452010-08-30T15:48:14.073-04:002010-08-30T15:48:14.073-04:00Natsman: You're on target. This team, under th...Natsman: You're on target. This team, under the best of circumstances, loses 90+ in 2011 with the projected rotation. These guys have never produced "up to expectations," and there is nothing on the horizon to give a fan hope that they ever will.<br /><br />Lesatcsc is also correct. Riggleman is 158 games under .500 for his managerial career at this writing, and is a fine manager only for little league, where everybody gets his at bats. Until we have a consistent day-to-day lineup devoid of the Wille Harrises and Nyjer Morgans of this world, the Nats will remain a 90-100 loss team.NatsFan2005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-20408533088221329662010-08-30T15:42:12.880-04:002010-08-30T15:42:12.880-04:00How much better would the Nats be if Joe Torre or ...How much better would the Nats be if Joe Torre or Bobby Cox managed them? Really. 5 or 6 games better? Put Cox or Torre in charge, and we're still a sub .500 team. It is a team sport, and for the most part it's about the players.<br />fpcsteveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-53690576491996959492010-08-30T15:41:34.114-04:002010-08-30T15:41:34.114-04:00I don't see the point in ruling out a run at L...I don't see the point in ruling out a run at Lee on the assumption that the Yankees or another big market team will simply offer him more money/a better chance at competing. If we're talking about a 4-5 year deal, the Nats may well be competitive for all of those years but 2011. And there should be no doubt that the team can offer as much or more money than anyone.<br /><br />Besides, the question is whether the team should make an effort at signing Lee, not whether they will in fact sign him. To me, the Nats have as much reason to make their best effort at signing Lee as they did with Teixeira, maybe even more reason.jcj5ynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-7776735483232703262010-08-30T15:11:33.524-04:002010-08-30T15:11:33.524-04:00At what stage do the Nats decide it's time to ...At what stage do the Nats decide it's time to get a manager with a winning track record? There is a reason Riggleman isn't fielding offers from the Yankees, Braves, Cardinals or other perennial winning teams. It's because he has no record as a winning manager. And that, quite simply, is because he isn't one. That rotation and the young players that are cutting their teeth now, plus a veteran FA or two might make the ingredients for a good team, but not with the lousy chef they have now. Riggs may be fine for a 95-105 loss team, but at some point you have to get serious and bring in a guy that isn't going to be content with "playing them good" while getting swept.lesatcscnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-60011857811670843832010-08-30T15:04:09.898-04:002010-08-30T15:04:09.898-04:00Ok, I repeat, this rotation is lousy.
Zimmermann ...Ok, I repeat, this rotation is lousy.<br /><br />Zimmermann is coming back from surgery and to expect him to be a power dominating #2 right now is INSANE. Most teams place a guy like Zimnn in the back of the rotation to ease him in. #3 is even a bit high although reasonable.<br /><br />The justification that Maya is an ace even though he is unproven makes no sense. Who knows what kind of pitcher he will be? Probably a #3 or #4 based on his positive and negative experience (big game but lack of experience and grind in the MLB level). Could be better, could be worse.<br /><br />The rest are back-enders or marginal #5 starters. Livo, by the way, is a marginal #5 and hasn't changed for a few years now. He's just luckier this year (his x-Fip has been stagnant the past few years). Livo was having a .054 BABIP with runners in scoring position for the first 7 starts for a bit there which is unheard of!<br /><br />Lannan too. He's gotten by on being crafty and lucky. His luck hasn't been that great this year. But to call this guy an Ace, which is what quite a few of you were doing is preposterous. (A 4.XX ERA is pretty much what to expect from him).<br /><br />Marquis is a consistent #5 innings eater and a step up from Livo. He is a 4.XX ERA and a 4.XX xFIP who had a bad year. I don't know about you, but an ERA of 4.XX is back-end to me.<br /><br />Olsen is a left-hander with a 4.XX ERA. As Dave Cameron said on 11/11/08 "Olsen’s turning into a pitch-to-contact flyball starter with bad command, and pitchers with that skillset struggle to be anything better than a marginal #5 starter." I think his assessment is apt.<br /><br />Who else? Stamen? Martis? Chico? Martin? It's not quite Mike Bascik, but everybody other than Stamen are probably going to be back-end journeymen in their careers at some point.<br /><br />Having one of the guys I talked about on the back end of the rotation is fine. Even two is ok, but the Nationals have all of them filling in slots that are pretty much above their abilities (because even a marginal #5 could be upgraded). <br /><br />With that in mind, the Nationals will need some offense to be competitive. Personally, I don't think they will spend the money this off-season to accommodate that need, so my expectation is regression next year, not improvement.Natmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-58039255901077181302010-08-30T15:01:08.926-04:002010-08-30T15:01:08.926-04:00Quite frankly, there isn't much in free agent ...Quite frankly, there isn't much in free agent starting pitching this year--less really than there was last year. Look, Cliff Lee is not coming here, any more than John Lackey was last year. If the Yanks don't make him a megabuck offer, the Red Sox or the White Sox or the Angels or the Tigers or the Giants or the Cards will-- a team that either is a contender or has been one recently (and his current team can't be ruled out with the new ownership).<br /><br />After Lee the best available starters are Tim Hudson or Ted Lilly, both of whom will be 35 next year. Unless someone like Jeff Francis doesn't have his option picked up, after that you are dumpster diving or hoping someone who's been hurt for quite a while regains his form. We've done enough of both.Steven J. Berkenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-45154187362521505812010-08-30T14:59:19.537-04:002010-08-30T14:59:19.537-04:00"4. Marquis might give you 200 innings at 4.5..."4. Marquis might give you 200 innings at 4.50 ERA -- about what you'd expect from a #4.<br /><br />5. Ditto Lannan at #5."<br /><br />You do realize that a pitcher could pitch the definition of a quality start (6 IP, max of 3 ER) thirty three times in a row and achieve 200 innings of 4.50 ERA, don't you? It would only be on the most elite of teams that you'd find #4 and #5 starters capable of pitching 33 consecutive quality starts each. So it's not at all true that this is about what you'd expect from a normal team's #4 and #5 starters. There just aren't that many good pitchers around for that to be considered the norm.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-58223663991127031372010-08-30T14:54:26.399-04:002010-08-30T14:54:26.399-04:00Lannan has always been an August/September pitcher...Lannan has always been an August/September pitcher. I can't count the number of times he's thrown a gem late in the season (when the games don't matter) and said, "Where was this 2 months ago?"<br /><br />What can the coaching staff do to get this guy in mid-season form by May?P. Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05595063031128706541noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-78349202791610706572010-08-30T14:53:04.030-04:002010-08-30T14:53:04.030-04:00I believe that's the jist of the posters here....I believe that's the jist of the posters here. Next year is another one for baby steps with 2012 being the year positive growth with results come to fruition.<br /><br />I believe 70 wins is possible this year with 75-80 wins in 2011 and a spot above the Mets and or the Marlins.<br /><br />2012 should be the 85-89 win mark that pushes for a playoff spot and look out for 2013.NatsJack in Floridanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-2008570162090674772010-08-30T14:32:37.175-04:002010-08-30T14:32:37.175-04:002011 looks like another long season and a lock on ...2011 looks like another long season and a lock on last place in the NL east.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-36506724245717059902010-08-30T14:22:33.985-04:002010-08-30T14:22:33.985-04:00Livo, Lannan and Marquis are all likely to make 30...Livo, Lannan and Marquis are all likely to make 30 starts and have 4-4.5 ERAs. If that happened it would be a massive improvement to our rotation. If Z'nn is that good or better, it's further improvement. If the #5 spot is even a 5 ERA consistently, that is a huge improvement.<br /><br />Granted, it's a long way from a playoff rotation but SS, Z'nn, and Maya/Detwiler/...give us a shot at one in the next 2-3 years. <br /><br />My point is, it's progress. Significant progress.<br /><br />But it's all with risk, except Livo whose only risks are whether he'll be average again or strong like this year.<br /><br />Still question marks in middle infield and outfield but with people like Bernie, Morse, Espinosa, Desmond showing enough promise that getting to .500 next year is a real possibility.<br /><br />Unfortunately, after 6 seasons of this, 90 losses and last place is easily in reach also. Bit discouraging but I'm still a big Rizzo fan and he hasn't been in charge very long. We floundered under Bowden, now we are progressing. I'll take it.Avarhttp://natsinsider.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-12472455586821996492010-08-30T14:17:00.380-04:002010-08-30T14:17:00.380-04:00NatinBeantown . . . you make a good point. You ca...NatinBeantown . . . you make a good point. You can't turn around a team that just had two 100-loss seasons in a row overnight. Even more so in a case such as the Nats, where MLB decimated the team, and, even worse, the farm system. (And a disastrous Dominical Republic venture -- thanks Bowden) <br /><br />Further, let's not just look at starting pitching -- our relief corps is already vastly improved over last year, and compares fairly well to other teams in the division (even if our line of starters does not yet). If Storen develops into the pitcher we think he might be (and he's showed more promise than J-Zimm), we might be in decent shape to get to .500 next year, and starting to contend in the following year.A DC Wonknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-12932959606999797042010-08-30T14:05:16.250-04:002010-08-30T14:05:16.250-04:00jcj5y,
You should know by now that for the Yanke...jcj5y,<br /><br /> You should know by now that for the Yankees 25 mil a year is a rounding error; if they decide they want Lee they will outbid everyone to get him; same on Crawford.<br /><br /> Judging by what they are getting from Vazquez and Burnett and the fact that Pettite's arm will eventually fall off I guarantee that they will be in on Lee for whatever it takes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-75999680267729888662010-08-30T13:47:06.114-04:002010-08-30T13:47:06.114-04:00Anonymous 1:37.... I agree with your assessment.
...Anonymous 1:37.... I agree with your assessment. <br /><br />The Mets are a mess and will be until they fix their front office, rid themselves of useless contracts and rebuild their minor league system...The Phillies have one more good run in them after this season then their depleted minor league system will bite them in the rear... and the Marlins are the Marlins...poor ownership will hurt them.<br /><br />By late 2012 season we will emerge as a rising team that will be battling the Braves and their excellent organization that builds from within for a playoff birth from 2013 on...<br /><br />My comment on the 3 starting pitchers was meant for next season only and intended to compare the Phillies and the Braves with us.NatsJak in Floridanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-70201796112790863042010-08-30T13:43:44.556-04:002010-08-30T13:43:44.556-04:00Yes, 2011 will start with pitching; which is what ...Yes, 2011 will start with pitching; which is what Mark's article is about. I'm counting on some significant contribution from Maya (hey, why not? He hasn't been injured yet!). My 2011 starting 5 would be: Zimmermann, Maya, Lannon, Detwiler and Marquis / Chien. I think it's reasonable to predict that Livo's performance may taper a bit (here's to hoping he proves me wrong!). I know most of those I've listed have been tapped with the injury bug, but hopefully the Nats can catch some breaks and stay healthier in '11. <br /><br />That being said, the overall performance of the Nats will also be determined by the defensive & offensive make-up of the remaining 8 players. I have more concerns over these areas than I do our 'transition rotation' while SS recovers. One glaring weakness in my opinion is the Nat's bench quality. It seems like with every injury or day off, the Nats are forced to play someone whose best chances can only realistically be described as 'hope'. The middle infield and CF need to be straightened out -- offensively and defensively. Morgan has turned into a negative and the SS/2B tandem needs to be settled in on (counting on big things from Espi next year!). As for CA, like Livo, I think it only prudent to count on Pudge's overall numbers dropping. Therefore, Ramos needs to be groomed as Pudge's everyday replacement soon. <br /><br />If the Nats can shore up these areas and find a RF, I think this rotation can get them closer to .500 in '11 and when SS returns in '12 (and who knows, by then a certain RF named Harper just may be ready??), they should be in good shape to vie for a WC spot.Iowa Nats Fanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16096813084404589114noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-5203635903928183162010-08-30T13:37:58.110-04:002010-08-30T13:37:58.110-04:00NatsJack,
Clearly we are not in the Phillies lea...NatsJack,<br /><br /> Clearly we are not in the Phillies league just yet but their core is aging and Amaro has traded a lot of their future for the present (which is not unreasonable considering their window of opportunity is now); I think that our team's fortunes will intersect with the Phills in the next 2 years; they will head down and we will head up.<br /><br /> The Braves starters are excellent but their lineup - Chipper is not great and Hudson is aging and is having an exceptionally lucky year so they won't be invincible.<br /><br /> The Mets have great potential to fail as long as Minaya is the captain of that ship; The Marlins can be scary because of great starting pitching; lots of youth and quality in the lineup and a very smart GM.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-82523997549142109052010-08-30T13:35:09.377-04:002010-08-30T13:35:09.377-04:00Aside from the obvious pitching issue...offensivel...Aside from the obvious pitching issue...offensively speaking, I firmly believe a team needs power depth to win in this league as well. Think Phillies. (Braves unique this yr to say the least.) With that, Bernadina at CF could get you 20 homers in a yr. Espinosa looks like another Uggla with a glove. He strikes out a lot but has 28 homers! At CF and 2B, you could have 2 20/20 guys. Desmond, too, has pop. Easy 15 homers. Resign Dunn, and with Zimm, Willingham you have another 80+ homers in the middle of a lineup. The only non-homer position would be catcher. Of course, Ramos, would hit 10-15 in a full season as well. 2012---Harper...who knows. But I like the "pop" this lineup could see with a Bernadina and Espinosa hitting homeruns from postions that typically don't get much...save Utley/UgglaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-30549185457640818332010-08-30T13:22:05.833-04:002010-08-30T13:22:05.833-04:00The old saying is that you can never have enough p...The old saying is that you can never have enough pitching and based on his first year in the job it appears that Rizzo is always working on plans and back-up plans that include both free agent signings and AAAA pitchers<br /><br />We are jawing over the obvious questions of just who the team can expect to be effective over a whole season, but some of it is just going to involve injuries and luck<br /><br />I agree with other commenters who look at the Nats and see other problems (lack of hitting and poor defense) that should keep us all cautious from hoping about a contending team yet<br /><br />Mark in ArlingtonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-20022098028057074892010-08-30T13:04:00.006-04:002010-08-30T13:04:00.006-04:00Good post, Mark.
Injury and recovery questions ho...Good post, Mark.<br /><br />Injury and recovery questions hover over all of those guys -- except Livo the Ageless Wonder, of course -- but with good health, those four plus Strasburg are a playoff-caliber rotation.<br /><br />1. SS is a legitimate #1 starter.<br /><br />2. Zimmermann has the power (>9.0 K/9 ratio in MLB in 2009-2010 and in the minors in 2007-2009) to be a legitimate #2. He needs time to learn the craft, but I'm bullish on his prospects.<br /><br />3. Livo: of course he's not going to dominate batters anymore (his K/9 is low and declining), but he's not going to give out free passes either (his BB/9 is also low and holding steady. So he has to beat you with guile.<br /><br /> So what we should be asking is whether his 2010 renaissance is the result of good luck (unsustainable) or something else that's sustainable (such as improved fitness, as Rizzo said)?<br /><br /> On the good luck side, his BABIP is about 30 points lower than his career average. But that's balanced out by bad luck: he's only 7-2 with 7 NDs in his 17 starts with Game Scores at/above 50 (Bill James's measure of a quality start). <br /><br /> If the Nats had scored enough in four games where allowed only 1 ER, he could've walked away with 4 Ws instead of 2 Ls and 2 NDs. A 13-7 Livo would look like a much better piece of the 2011 puzzle than a 9-9 Livo, no?<br /><br /> I'm bullish on Livo, too. (That's probably because I'm a Livo fan, but intelligence and health are huge pieces of the pitching puzzle, and he has both.)<br /><br />4. Marquis might give you 200 innings at 4.50 ERA -- about what you'd expect from a #4.<br /><br />5. Ditto Lannan at #5.<br /><br />The earlier commenter who said that, without SS, everyone will be pitching one slot too high is spot-on. But we can hope that 2011 will see good baseball from the home team. (Right?)Raffnoreply@blogger.com