tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post5416520319950141549..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: Kasten joins Magic in bid for DodgersMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger74125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-74378327510618649942011-12-04T11:48:55.457-05:002011-12-04T11:48:55.457-05:00That's pretty good stuff there, John C.That's pretty good stuff there, John C.Scooterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16212781754082333423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-71883983312592571052011-12-04T00:25:57.400-05:002011-12-04T00:25:57.400-05:00And the reason that I stressed for 2012 in my prev...And the reason that I stressed <i>for 2012</i> in my previous comment is that I believe the Nats management feels that their window is just opening in 2012, and they want that window to stay open as long as possible. That creates less incentive to go all in for 2012 by making short term moves (Oswalt, Buehrle). They may go for a Darvish or a Fielder because they are in their 20's and have a decent chance to be productive for years. Yes, the Nationals pitching has some question marks. The Nationals want to find out the answers to those questions, not to try to eliminate all questions (which isn't possible anyway). That will tell them how best to keep the team on the rise as the farm starts to really produce.<br /><br />The principle of question marks also applies to the offense. Zimmerman should be healthy and Werth should regress towards his career averages, but neither are guaranteed. Ramos and Espinosa had promising rookie seasons but both really struggled at times and are also question marks. Desmond is Desmond - the Nats can only hope that his success late in the year under Davey isn't a mirage. There's a hole in the OF they hope Harper can fix sooner or later - but Harper is a huge gamble as he hasn't played above AA ball yet. The first baseman, who is coming off a serious shoulder injury, seems like a placeholder (for Morse or Fielder).<br /><br />Could the Nats contend in 2012? Yes, certainly. They could even make a very serious post-season run <i>IF</i> a <i>LOT</i> of things break right for them. But to me they are at the final stages of a three year (since Bowden left) rebuilding process from the dregs of baseball. I believe they are in position to try to win in 2012, but 2012 isn't the target. 2012-2018 is more the target. The playoffs are a crap shoot - they should want to make it as many times as possible to maximize their chance of winning it all.<br /><br />IMHO :-)John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-83780888565270797962011-12-04T00:08:42.578-05:002011-12-04T00:08:42.578-05:00These advanced stats appear to show just how preca...<i>These advanced stats appear to show just how precarious the National's starting situation is. It all stats [sic] with starting pitching: National's management is gambling on too many unknowns and the potential for back slipping appears to be quite high without management taking appropriate proactive steps.</i><br /><br />Virtually all teams are a couple of injuries and/or underperformers away from pitching disaster. The Red Sox went into 2011 trying to figure out what to do with all of their pitchers. By September they were trying to figure out who was going to pitch.<br /><br />Which is my way of saying that the Nationals "precarious situation" isn't helped by signing free agents. Buehrle and Oswalt are both at an age where a pitcher can do downhill in a hurry - and Oswalt has a bad back. Wilson has only two years of starting, and it remains to be seen how his arm will react to the workload. Darvish (if he posts) has no big league experience. It all sounds pretty precarious to me. Even accepting the diagnosis of the stats you use (and you are using stats I haven't seen before), the steps you advocate just shifts the focus around rather than eliminating the problem. All while spending lots of money that could be used elsewhere.<br /><br /><i>My assumption is that they will take those steps. The stats above appear to indicate that they may be better off starting Tommy Milone with a Buehrle or Wilson, while trading Ross Detwiler and John Lannan, meanwhile bringing Sammy Solis and Matt Purke along in the next wave.<br /><br />That they may be better off with Bradley Peacock as a #3/#4 starter at this point.</i><br /><br />Better off starting Tom Milone and Brad Peacock? Does the phrase "small sample size" have meaning for you? And over Lannan? You never addressed my observation that Lannan has consistently overperformed his sabremetric stats in his career (which is why sabre types hate him). Lannan's real problem is that he's been a good #4 or great #5 starter miscast as a top of the rotation guy. That's not his fault.<br /><br />You're right that the Nationals hopes <i>for 2012</i> are riding on a full season from Zimmermann and a comeback season from Strasburg similar to Zimmermann's from this year. Those are gambles. Lannan really isn't much of a gamble; he's been remarkably consistent in his career. Not great, but consistently decent. Wang, Detwiler, Milone, Peacock are all big gambles; if one or two of them really step up, the Nationals may well contend in 2012.John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-89698373313597622612011-12-03T22:48:17.021-05:002011-12-03T22:48:17.021-05:00The argument for signing Prince Fielder appears to...The argument for signing Prince Fielder appears to only get stronger.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-72756624424405220162011-12-03T22:47:17.104-05:002011-12-03T22:47:17.104-05:00And once again I will point out that pitching was ...<i>And once again I will point out that pitching was not exactly our main problem in 2011. Cy Young couldn't win with our hitting.</i><br /><br />Actually both areas. Which is more important?<br /><br />Nationals rotation pitching:<br />xIP = 921.6 tRA=4.52 pRAA = -22.8<br />Hitting:<br />wOBA 0.312 bRAA = -.40.1<br /><br />Let's use Tampa Bay and Atlanta in comparison:<br /><br />TB Rays rotation <br />xIP = 1043.8 tRA = 4.34 pRAA = 16.3<br />TB Rays hitting:<br />wOBA = .332 bRAA = 23.0<br /><br />ATL Braves rotation:<br />xIP = 955.4 tRA=4.09 pRAA = 22.2<br />ATL Braves hitting:<br />wOBA = 0.316 bRAA = -19.2<br /><br />Clearly TB was the better team of the three ... yet the disparity between the Nationals rotation + hitting and the other two is marked. <br /><br />I've always assumed that pitching was most important but it is true that without Michael Morse's year the Nats offense would have been pretty pathetic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-25222024054399778892011-12-03T22:38:23.930-05:002011-12-03T22:38:23.930-05:00The potential trade partner : the TB Rays starting...The potential trade partner : the TB Rays starting pitching:<br /><br />Again, xIP = Expected innings pitched derived by xOuts/3<br /> tRA = Park and defense neutral pitching metric scaled to R/9<br /> pRAA = Pitching, runs above average <br /> derived by (lgTRA * xOuts / 27 - xRuns)<br /> <br />James Sheilds 240.6 3.63 22.8 [elite]<br />David Price 224.7 3.70 19.6<br /><br />Jeff Niemann 135.9 4.72 -3.7<br />Wade Davis 184.9 5.09 -12.5Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-74984764675936883272011-12-03T22:38:12.145-05:002011-12-03T22:38:12.145-05:00Screw the idiots.
91 wins and let the Marlins do ...Screw the idiots.<br /><br />91 wins and let the Marlins do whatever they want.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-26654608430166453042011-12-03T22:32:56.333-05:002011-12-03T22:32:56.333-05:00And once again I will point out that pitching was ...And once again I will point out that pitching was not exactly our main problem in 2011. Cy Young couldn't win with our hitting.baseballswaminoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-75892337314107243782011-12-03T22:16:56.350-05:002011-12-03T22:16:56.350-05:00I'm not writing him in for 19 wins, or even as...<i>I'm not writing him in for 19 wins, or even as a solid #3, but his trend line was pretty steadily up as he got used to pitching regularly again.</i><br /><br />That is in fact the case and the stats do show that. In other words in spite of his recovery period he still finished ahead of Lannan and Livo. That in and of itself makes a statement.<br /><br />However, you are I believe missing the point. These advanced stats appear to show just how precarious the National's starting situation is. It all stats with starting pitching: National's management is gambling on too many unknowns and the potential for back slipping appears to be quite high without management taking appropriate proactive steps.<br /><br />My assumption is that they will take those steps. The stats above appear to indicate that they may be better off starting Tommy Milone with a Buehrle or Wilson, while trading Ross Detwiler and John Lannan, meanwhile bringing Sammy Solis and Matt Purke along in the next wave.<br /><br />That they may be better off with Bradley Peacock as a #3/#4 starter at this point. <br /><br />But the risk appears high. Adding a veteran to the front of the rotation instead of toward the rear as they have the past 2 years would go further toward ameliorating risk. <br /><br />The stats of course come from Fangraphs and their affiliate sites. And although they do not tell the whole the story ... they appear to do a good job of measuring that part of pitchers' performance that is quantifiable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-64212753529556353092011-12-03T21:33:31.701-05:002011-12-03T21:33:31.701-05:00On the "advanced metrics" analysis, a li...On the "advanced metrics" analysis, a link to the sites and/or an explanation of how the figures were arrived at would be helpful. Further perspective on two of the pitchers analyzed:<br /><br />(1) CMW's numbers were dragged down by his first 2-3 starts, which were NOT promising. I'm not writing him in for 19 wins, or even as a solid #3, but his trend line was pretty steadily up as he got used to pitching regularly again.<br /><br />(2) Sabremetric types <i>hate</i> John Lannan, because he has been outperforming his "advanced" stats (thinking here of FIP and xFIP) regularly since he came up. Although I use advanced stats regularly, I have to admit that I've reached the point with Lannan where I no longer assume that he's blind lucky. It has become apparent that there is something about his game that the advanced stats are not capturing properly.John C.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-33147949854910571192011-12-03T20:59:57.682-05:002011-12-03T20:59:57.682-05:00Buehrle could easily be the better fit there.
Ove...<i>Buehrle could easily be the better fit there.</i><br /><br />Over Oswalt who has pitched in the NL his entire career? While Buehrle has been exclusively in the AL? Not hardly. <br /><br />However, each pitcher comes with both pros and cons ... Buehrle's main "pro" is his left-handedness going with the consistency. <br /><br />The interesting thing about those stats is that they remove any doubts about which pitchers pitched the best. Clearly for the Nats it was Zimmermann and Strasburg; but after them there is a rather precipitous drop. <br /><br />Peacock and Milone show some potential toward addressing a part of that. Gorzelanny appears as the next best ... making 4 total ... <br /><br />The stats show that the rest are below average to quite bad. <br /><br />In other words this may be one perspective that the FO is using in their approach to the offseason. And within the numbers you can see the gambles: <br /><br />Chien-Ming Wang was the third on the bad list ... they are gambling on continued improvement ... but also from Ross Detwiler! It could also mean they have not yet given up on Yunesky Maya as a starter. But in the end there are too many high risk gambles in the starting rotation.<br /><br />This analysis appears to show that the Nats need not just 1 but 2 of those names on the free agent market ... or a trade should be facilitated to acquire a starter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-88935704347920158582011-12-03T20:47:23.526-05:002011-12-03T20:47:23.526-05:00anon - maybe if stats were the only story. Part of...anon - maybe if stats were the only story. Part of the fit is supposed to be a mentor to our young pitchers. Buehrle could easily be the better fit there. Rizzo has said that he is not looking for the most skilled pitcher, but a pitcher than can help teach. Stats are fun but are rarely the entire story.baseballswaminoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-44078192868768371142011-12-03T20:41:33.737-05:002011-12-03T20:41:33.737-05:00In other words Buehrle is not the better fit. Not ...In other words Buehrle is not the better fit. Not by a long shot.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-56214013904939708452011-12-03T20:39:14.111-05:002011-12-03T20:39:14.111-05:00IN other news looking at possible Rizzo/FO offseas...IN other news looking at possible Rizzo/FO offseason approach via advanced metrics:<br /><br />Pitchers. Three metrics expected innings pitched xIP, tRA a park and defense neutral pitching metric, and pitching runs above average.<br /><br />For pRAA High positive numbers are good. Negative numbers are bad.<br />The key for the Nats are starters as it with many other teams:<br /><br />The good:<br /><br /> xIP tRA pRAA<br />Jordan Zimmermann 161.5 3.48 14.6<br />Stephen Strasburg 23.7 1.04 8.6<br />Bradley Peacock 10.1 1.95 2.6<br />Tommy Milone 26.9 3.43 2.6<br /><br />Now let's look at the bad - from better to worse:<br /><br />Tom Gorzelanny 85.3 4.39 -0.9 **<br />Jason Marquis 121.0 4.51 -2.9<br />Yunesky Maya 24.2 6.17 -5.0<br />Ross Detwiler 53.3 5.34 -6.2 <br />Chien Ming Wang 60.4 5.51 -8.2<br /><br />** as a reliever Tom Gorzelanny fared much better<br /><br />Tom Gorzelanny 21.7 3.05 2.1<br /><br />The absolute worst.<br /><br />LIvan Hernadez 172.9 4.94 -12.4<br />John Lannan 182.3 5.04 -15.1<br /><br />Now the potential FA's:<br /><br />CJ Wilson 224.4 3.34 28.3 [elite]<br />Roy Oswalt 146.7 3.10 19.5<br />Mark Buehrle 208.5 4.15 7.7<br />Edwin Jackson 123.2 4.35 1.7 CHISOX<br />Edwin Jackson 76.0 5.23 -7.9 CARDS<br /><br />As one can quickly surmise both Oswalt and Wilson easily surpass the Nats best starters. Even in an off year pitching fewer innings Oswalt still managed close-to-elite numbers. Wilson was an elite pitcher last year. Buehrle clearly was not. <br /><br />And the two worst starters for the Nats most in need of replacement?<br />Livan Hernandez and John Lannan NOT Tom Gorzelanny.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-79131040197009387082011-12-03T19:39:23.836-05:002011-12-03T19:39:23.836-05:00We're not in Kansas any more, sec3.
In other...We're not in Kansas any more, sec3. <br /><br />In other news, mentioning the man's experience developing other franchises qualifies as fawning? Tough crowd.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-65896557105332905982011-12-03T19:33:42.124-05:002011-12-03T19:33:42.124-05:00Kuroda seems to be on the market now. Is he a viab...Kuroda seems to be on the market now. Is he a viable option for the Nats?<br /><br />I'm just hoping for anyone but Wilson or Oswalt.Know-nothingnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-72710623517670051422011-12-03T19:09:28.211-05:002011-12-03T19:09:28.211-05:00Hey, the Dude - don't want to go another five ...Hey, the Dude - don't want to go another five hours. How weird would it be to have Oswalt on our team? I have to tell you it took me a while to warm up to Jayson Werth because I was so used to disliking him as a philly. Would the phans boo Oswalt endlessly also? I would love to see Werth have a fantastic year, yes, for our team, but also to shut them the heck up.baseballswaminoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-23327785808144429042011-12-03T18:52:03.601-05:002011-12-03T18:52:03.601-05:00Nobody has responded in 5 hours?
Davey played gol...Nobody has responded in 5 hours?<br /><br />Davey played golf today at his home course in Winter Park. Leaving for Dallas in the mornimg.The Dudenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-63854613883190025102011-12-03T13:08:30.055-05:002011-12-03T13:08:30.055-05:00And speaking of Phillies Phans and their base ... ...And speaking of Phillies Phans and their base ... they suddenly seem very frightened by the Nats rise from obscurity ... and make their case with an astute analysis of what might occur this offseason ...<br /><br />And they are right signing Prince Fielder would have the most dramatic effect on their offense bar none given that he is left-handed. But he would have to be joined by Morse in the lineup in order to realize the dramatic improvement.<br /><br />http://www.brotherlyglove.com/2011/12/01/very-scary-very-quickly-watch-those-nats/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-79846811123254743072011-12-03T13:00:08.701-05:002011-12-03T13:00:08.701-05:00Mark....specifically....what did Kasten do during ...<i>Mark....specifically....what did Kasten do during his tenure as President of the Nationals to warrant such continued, fawning praise from the local media?</i><br /><br />Fortunately for Dodger's fans there are the Angels ... and for some the Padres ... but who knows maybe Stan will move them back to Brooklyn.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-60793039051685751642011-12-03T12:31:20.311-05:002011-12-03T12:31:20.311-05:00"franchise-running expertise"
Mark......"franchise-running expertise"<br /><br /><br /><br />Mark....specifically....what did Kasten do during his tenure as President of the Nationals to warrant such continued, fawning praise from the local media?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-23488857347717742232011-12-03T12:27:33.183-05:002011-12-03T12:27:33.183-05:00I agree with Swami that StanK's infamous invit...I agree with Swami that StanK's infamous invite to Philly fans and the Nats' facilitation and sales to the invaders touched a nerve, even if most Philly fans need no invitation from Stan; and that the organization doesn't get it. Nor does it get how tedious and negative it has become, even to casual fans I'm betting (and hoping), to have Teddy lose every race, even to casual fans.Muddy Ruelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-29105157548317295192011-12-03T12:05:25.274-05:002011-12-03T12:05:25.274-05:00Yes, I know we are not a huge group - but I think ...Yes, I know we are not a huge group - but I think perhaps for every vocal blogger there is a group of silent fans out there keeping it to themselves. The "invasion" seems to have really touched a nerve even with people I know who are basically casual fans. And I really don't think the organization gets how much it bothers a lot of people. I think they are under-estimating the resentment that was created. This may be a small sample size, but I think it represents a larger attitude. I guess you are right - winning is the best revenge. GYFNG!baseballswaminoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-70589884729447888912011-12-03T10:44:29.687-05:002011-12-03T10:44:29.687-05:00Auntie M!Auntie M!Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-2929756306662320802011-12-03T10:42:30.135-05:002011-12-03T10:42:30.135-05:00Swami, it is indeed all about the Ws. A passionate...Swami, it is indeed all about the Ws. A passionate fan base of several dozen people would be helpless before the zombie onslaught.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.com