tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post3175042472868929415..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: Series preview: Marlins at NatsMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger150125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-28663285514669294702011-09-17T08:54:03.177-04:002011-09-17T08:54:03.177-04:00Thanks for raising the level of discourse, Anon.Thanks for raising the level of discourse, Anon.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-61428137810035744162011-09-16T23:22:38.446-04:002011-09-16T23:22:38.446-04:00I can't believe no one has mentioned the obvio...I can't believe no one has mentioned the obvious...<br /><br />WANG VS. HANDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-52095555206933445092011-09-16T17:17:05.136-04:002011-09-16T17:17:05.136-04:00'Upton is getting higher WAR based on his abov...'Upton is getting higher WAR based on his above average defense and Morse's below average defense.' <br /><br /><br /> Bingo !!jdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-68187755936548454022011-09-16T16:23:12.115-04:002011-09-16T16:23:12.115-04:00I want to make clear I was not advocating trading ...I want to make clear I was not <i>advocating</i> trading Morse either. I was <i>considering</i> trading Morse. Nor was I advocating that we obtain BJ Upton.<br /><br />You have to look objectively at what Morse brings to the table and if there are better overall choices available, and what those choices would cost in terms of both dollars and players. After that, you have to see if the player realistically is available.<br /> <br />I don't think any of us has the type of influence with Rizzo that makes our speculations or our advocacy worth beans. <br /><br />Now, someone asked me about predictions. If you asked me to <i>predict</i>, then I predict that we will not see Michael Morse next spring and we will see BJ Upton. When I saw that, then I thought, well, what about a trade of those two players, but there could be other variations. I think odds on both predicitons are a little over 50%. That's just me.<br /><br />Back to work.NatsLadyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814911056080758503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-16977291983474506162011-09-16T16:21:53.278-04:002011-09-16T16:21:53.278-04:00JD, if you believe in OBP, Morse is tops on the te...JD, if you believe in OBP, Morse is tops on the team and higher than Upton. <br /><br />Upton is getting higher WAR based on his above average defense and Morse's below average defense. <br /><br /><br /><br />- Offensive players – Take wRAA and UZR (which express offensive and defensive value in runs above average) and add them together. Add in a positional adjustment, since some positions are tougher to play than others, and then convert the numbers so that they’re not based on league average, but on replacement level (which is the value a team would lose if they had to replace that player with a “replacement” player – a minor leaguer or someone from the waiver wire). Convert the run value to wins (10 runs = 1 win)Steve M.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-84528775145848836512011-09-16T16:10:44.882-04:002011-09-16T16:10:44.882-04:00Scooter, I ain't afraid of no fish. Well, okay...Scooter, I ain't afraid of no fish. Well, okay, maybe a little.<br /><br />Mick, thanks for sharing about the Nats of your childhood. Didn't live here in that era but enjoy reading the reminiscences of others.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-51657543459947365702011-09-16T16:07:11.631-04:002011-09-16T16:07:11.631-04:00Thanks Steve M.,
Morse is great, don't get me ...Thanks Steve M.,<br />Morse is great, don't get me wrong, but he's having a magical year and is injury prone, so you want to sell high to get a piece of the puzzle that is missing (better outfield defense, better leadoff hitting)<br /><br /> I'd also like to see hitting & runs produced when the game is close (+- 2 runs difference). Somehow remove hitting when the game is not close. i'll look at RC27 in the mean time.jeffwxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-28104252588715855242011-09-16T16:04:44.880-04:002011-09-16T16:04:44.880-04:00Steve M. said
'For players you want to judge...Steve M. said<br /><br /> 'For players you want to judge for offensive contributions, I think the RC27 sabre stat for runs created per game is a great one. Michael Morse in the entire MLB is ranked #20.<br /><br />That's why you need Michael Morse. Ryan Zimmerman #77, Jayson Werth #128, Coco Crisp #131, Danny Espinosa #133, BJ Upton #145'<br /><br /> Yeah but unfortunately in the NL you also have to play defense.<br /><br /> And I am by no means advocating trading Morse I'm just saying that we need to look at him objectively.jdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-43765842762353757442011-09-16T16:00:43.701-04:002011-09-16T16:00:43.701-04:00Steve M.
'How can one think BJ Upton is bette...Steve M.<br /><br />'How can one think BJ Upton is better than Ryan Zimmerman or even Danny Espinosa is better than Ryan Zimmerman. Well, if you go strictly by WAR, the cumulative numbers give a different conclusion to some.'<br /><br /> Of course you have to adjust based on games played. I think that was pretty much Sam's point.jdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-49960806275642097602011-09-16T15:58:27.204-04:002011-09-16T15:58:27.204-04:00Steve M., You may be right about the Braves and Bo...Steve M., You may be right about the Braves and Bourne. Just looking for a Bourne type player (Good glove, good speed, good OBP). Braves could use some more power in the outfield and bench depth (eg: Morse, Nix..). They do have great young pitchers in the majors and minor leaques up the yingyang.jeffwxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-20092844290864501152011-09-16T15:56:22.020-04:002011-09-16T15:56:22.020-04:00For players you want to judge for offensive contri...For players you want to judge for offensive contributions, I think the RC27 sabre stat for runs created per game is a great one. Michael Morse in the entire MLB is ranked #20.<br /><br />That's why you need Michael Morse. Ryan Zimmerman #77, Jayson Werth #128, Coco Crisp #131, Danny Espinosa #133, BJ Upton #145<br /><br />http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/sort/runsCreatedPer27Outs/qualified/false/type/sabermetric/minpa/300Steve M.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-15515180744122459342011-09-16T15:54:13.094-04:002011-09-16T15:54:13.094-04:00Steve M,
I have to admit; I believe in OBP and I...Steve M,<br /><br /> I have to admit; I believe in OBP and I think the WAR is the best objective tool to look at players otherwise you pick and choose what metrics interest you and you don't represent the whole picture.<br /><br /> For example looking at Michael Morse smash home runs and doubles regularly may lead you to conclude that he's more valuable than he really is; NatsLady correctly points out his defensive shortcomings whic by the way are not minor. additionally looking at batting averages alone may lead you to conclude that B J Upton is having a terrible year but guess what? overall he's having a better year than Michael Morse.<br /><br /> I am also not a great believer in the clutch theories. If you don't get on base there is no one to be driven in and if you are a high OBP player you will statistically drive in your fair share of runs.jdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-11768793501547182962011-09-16T15:40:33.227-04:002011-09-16T15:40:33.227-04:00JamesFan said... I just read the latest posts and ...<i>JamesFan said... I just read the latest posts and think that four wins has caused some kind of serious mental breakdown in Nats Nation.<br /><br />BJ Upton? Has anybody looked at his numbers? Do we really want another low batting average, srikeout king on this team. Are you nuts? Sure Zmn likes him. He liked Dunn too. Trade Morse? Are you really willing to give up a The GM is not running a social club here.<br /><br />veteran guy who hits .300 and 30 homers and can play multiple positions? Do you think this team would be over 70 wins this year without Morse or Clip? This is insanity. September 16, 2011 3:21 PM </i><br /><br />Not everyone has lost their minds. I am with you. NatsLady -was- willing to trading Morse + Lombo and a pitcher TBNL for BJ Upton who is a Free Agent after next season.<br /><br />Luckily, I think she stepped back from the ledge. <br /><br />Also to those who name Michael Bourn, he is property of the Atlanta Braves and fairly certain they are keeping him for 2012.<br /><br />BTW, love this line you wrote "The GM is not running a social club here."Steve M.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-62839494357290942942011-09-16T15:37:33.990-04:002011-09-16T15:37:33.990-04:00Is there a stat that shows hitting/run produced wh...Is there a stat that shows hitting/run produced when there is a two run or less difference in score.<br />That's where Zimm shines, when the game is close. I think the record for walk off homers is 12 and at age 26 Zimm already has 8, correct ?<br /><br />Man, the music on wwoz.org is real good today.jeffwxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-86117113447985522792011-09-16T15:33:19.876-04:002011-09-16T15:33:19.876-04:00Sam said...
@Steve M.: 110 divided by 30 teams is...<i>Sam said... <br />@Steve M.: 110 divided by 30 teams is between 3 and 4 per team. So, Upton is the 4th best player on his team (on average)? What's wrong with that?<br /><br />If your point about WAR is that Zimmerman isn't first, it's not well-taken. Of course he isn't leading the team. He missed 1/3 of the year. Playing time is taken into account in WAR. If it wasn't, the idea of how much you produce over a "replacement" wouldn't make much sense. <br /><br />September 16, 2011 2:45 PM </i><br /><br />I guess you missed where I was going with WAR, I was showing how the stats rank them not what I personally think. I was simply listing the players in order. WAR is cumulative so with Zim missing so much of the season his WAR is lower this season. That's another reason not to get crazy with WAR comparisons.<br /><br />How can one think BJ Upton is better than Ryan Zimmerman or even Danny Espinosa is better than Ryan Zimmerman. Well, if you go strictly by WAR, the cumulative numbers give a different conclusion to some.Steve M.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-31047800558324438182011-09-16T15:30:04.904-04:002011-09-16T15:30:04.904-04:00And yes, we lose a great hitter like Michael Morse...And yes, we lose a great hitter like Michael Morse in the lineup but we get a great fast run producing outfielder in Bourne (very much needed in the top of the lineup) and LaRoche is a great clutch hitter and an amazing defensive first baseman. Overall then you subtract Morse, but get better defense and better OBP in the lineup.jeffwxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-88147227621685815422011-09-16T15:23:13.912-04:002011-09-16T15:23:13.912-04:00Nats lady: Agree we will have better choices than...Nats lady: Agree we will have better choices than Balaster in the BP....Severino, Mr. Coffee ?<br /><br />I agree our strengths are/will be infield/Starting Pitching/Catching<br /><br />Still would like a fast high OBP guy in the outfield who can produce runs by getting on base and using his speed. I think the nats are really not that far away from the top tier.jeffwxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-2685663195185810582011-09-16T15:23:09.893-04:002011-09-16T15:23:09.893-04:00NatsLady said...
REALLY: I wish people would stop...<i>NatsLady said... <br />REALLY: I wish people would stop saying I am "fascinated" with BJ Upton or I "adore" CMW when I discuss them. <br /><br />I'm trying to be as objective as I can, and to be open to trading just about anyone that it is within reason to trade--and also to consider both statistical and "intangible" factors.<br /><br />And are the Nats of 2011 a better team without Dunn and Willingham than the Nats of 2010 were with them? The Nationals 3-4-5 combo was way up there in the NL last year for a while. And what good did it do with out defense and pitching? <br /><br />Fortunately, it's time for me to go to work. Have fun, people. <br /><br />September 16, 2011 2:37 PM </i><br /><br />You lobby passionately for certain players which is fine so long as you are able to see other points of view. You did bring up a good point, which is balance.<br /><br />The Giants aren't going to the playoffs this year even with their great pitching because of balance - no offense.<br /><br />Here's how I see it, the 2011 Nats team has improved in starting pitching, team defense, team speed, team chemistry and the ability to win in extra innings. I believe they got worse in the bullpen and slightly worse team offense (runs scored) and OBP (.311 vs .318) and BA (.244 vs .250).<br /><br />The difference by the end of the season is that approximately 43 less runners got on base from the 2010 team to the 2011 team. The Nats currently rank 12th of the 16 NL teams in OBP. <br /><br />For perspective, the Atlanta Braves who will probably be a playoff team are almost identical to the Nats in BA/OBP. They have more clutch hits and the best bullpen in the majors. The Braves have scored 33 more runs than the Nats which by pythagorean is good for a +5 in wins and pitching has allowed 58 fewer runs for a +9.<br /><br />That's the difference in a playoff team. It isn't neccessarily how often you get on base but what you do when you have runners on base, and then of course holding the opposition to fewer runs.Steve M.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-55513612755635870202011-09-16T15:22:37.317-04:002011-09-16T15:22:37.317-04:00Natslady-
My take on the outfield is that there&#...Natslady-<br /><br />My take on the outfield is that there's three lineup spots there, and I want them filled by the best players possible for as many games as possible. I assume you wouldn't be opposed to having, say, 2B, SS and 3B locked up long term, just because they all happen to be in the infield. Why should the logic be any different in the outfield? Just because they're considered the same position for the All-Star game voting doesn't mean that they're the same position. If it helps, just think of them as "outside 3B," "outside MI" and "outside 1B."<br /><br />In addition, if you really really want to have flexibility to move them around so guys can get off days and we can make room for spot starts and defensive replacement, Werth, Kemp and Harper do offer a good deal of flexibility. They're all four or five tool type guys- varying levels of quality of those tools, to be sure, but each could probably play each of the OF spots in a pinch. There's no Ryan Braun type who needs to be hidden in LF or Michael Bourjos type who needs to play CF or his talent is mostly wasted. You've still got flexibility to do some things out there.Bowdenballnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-58691306886431741292011-09-16T15:21:28.337-04:002011-09-16T15:21:28.337-04:00I just read the latest posts and think that four w...I just read the latest posts and think that four wins has caused some kind of serious mental breakdown in Nats Nation.<br /><br />BJ Upton? Has anybody looked at his numbers? Do we really want another low batting average, srikeout king on this team. Are you nuts? Sure Zmn likes him. He liked Dunn too. The GM is not running a social club here.<br /><br />Trade Morse? Are you really willing to give up a veteran guy who hits .300 and 30 homers and can play multiple positions? Do you think this team would be over 70 wins this year without Morse or Clip? This is insanity.JamesFannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-85682357226715635542011-09-16T15:18:37.068-04:002011-09-16T15:18:37.068-04:00jeffwx-- (sigh) do we have to keep Balester?jeffwx-- (sigh) do we have to keep Balester?NatsLadyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814911056080758503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-7467675100026500762011-09-16T15:13:50.834-04:002011-09-16T15:13:50.834-04:00Bourne - CF .300
Desmond - SS .270/15/60
Zimmerma...Bourne - CF .300<br />Desmond - SS .270/15/60<br />Zimmerman - 3b .300/30/110<br />Laroche - 1b .260/25/90<br />Werth - RF .270/25/90<br />Espi - 2b .270/25/70<br />Ramos- C .260/20/70<br />Ankiel/Bernadina-LF .260/15/60<br /><br />as we wait patiently for Bryce/Rendon<br />Rendon will NOT be ready for 2012<br /><br />Bench: Lombo, Bixler, Marrero,Ankiel, Flores<br />P: <br /><br />Stras 15-5 <br />Znn 16-8<br />Lannon 13-10<br />Peacock 14-7,<br />Milone/Detwiller/Wang 13-15<br />BP: Clippard, Storen, Gorzo, Stammen, Burnett, Balaster/Coffeejeffwxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-42913908852795369772011-09-16T15:11:03.921-04:002011-09-16T15:11:03.921-04:00Nats Jack in Fla- and you know that the team loves...Nats Jack in Fla- and you know that the team loves playing for Johnson how? You can read their minds? Because with the exception of this past week they have played so well for him? (And let's just keep in mind that we played well but the Mets certainly helped things along.)Because a reporter forced them to say so? Just wondering how you think you know this.They haven't looked all that happy to me. I do know that he is going to be the manager next year. I would prefer to have a new manager that can stay with the team for a while and no, I don't think he still has the chops. Even if you like him a lot - you know he would take credit for inventing the internet if that credit wasn't already taken by someone else. Self- promotion is something he is not short of.baseballswaminoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-61769689447039705512011-09-16T15:09:14.594-04:002011-09-16T15:09:14.594-04:00Bowdenball-- what you say on Kemp makes sense. Th...Bowdenball-- what you say on Kemp makes sense. The only question would be do you have guys coming up in your own organization within six years (not Harper) who can be that kind of productive?<br /><br />I'm not so much worried about the money as locking up the outfield for so long. You don't have a lot of flexibility if you have two guys in long term deals plus Harper.<br /><br />Agree on several of your points, the infield, the bullpen and the top of the order, AND catcher should be this organization's strengths. It will be interesting, that's for sure.NatsLadyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814911056080758503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-57382935147207237312011-09-16T15:08:53.896-04:002011-09-16T15:08:53.896-04:00Another person to put on the radar for the middle ...Another person to put on the radar for the middle infield utility role: Matt Antonelli. I first noticed him when everyone was buzzing about Lombardozzi - I went over to look at the Syracuse team stats and couldn't help but notice that he's the team leader in OPS. yes, ahead of both Marrero and Lombardozzi. I wondered: who IS this guy? <br /><br />So I did some digging. He is a former 1st round pick (17th overall, 2006) of the Padres. He was drafted out of Wake Forest, signed quickly and progressed rapidly through their system in 2006 and 2007. His progress up through AA ball at that point had minorleaguebaseball.com rating him as a B+ prospect and the #2 guy in the Padres system with a good glove, solid bat and good strike zone judgment but questionable power (I'm guessing the latter is why the Padres moved he from 3b to 2b). But Antonelli fell off the table in 2008 (although he did get a cup of coffee with the Padres that year), going from a .294/.395/.476 in AA in 2007 to .215/.334/.322 in AAA in 2008. His numbers didn't improve in 2009 (.196/.300/.339) and after 54 games he was shut down with wrist pain that could not be diagnosed and didn't respond to cortisone shots. <br /><br />Antonelli was finally diagnosed with a broken hamate bone and underwent surgery in April of 2010. According to his web site, he had been experiencing severe wrist pain for two years. If true, it's no wonder that his batting and power numbers vanished (his batting eye remained solid even when he couldn't hit). The Padres cut him last December, and the Nationals picked him up for a song. And, with the surgery (and the wrist pain) behind him, his bat is back. Over 90 games and 374 PA - all but 4 and 15 at AAA Syracuse - he has slashed .298/.390/.457 in 2011, leading Syracuse in OPS. He looks a lot like the highly touted prospect that had Baseball America rating him as the #50 prospect in baseball entering 2008. His strike zone judgment is still good (59K, 47BB in 359 AAA PA), but with marginal power (20 2b, 3 3b, 8 HR). That's OK for a middle infielder, not a corner infielder or outfielder.<br /><br />It's clear to me that Antonelli has turned a corner, but even though he's done very well at AAA it's not at all clear where the turn leads. He's four years older than Marrero and Lombardozzi, but he's lost three years to injury (two years of crippled performance and one to rehab). Although primarily a 2b, he's played 2b, SS, 3b and LF in Syracuse. Don't be surprised if he beats out Lombardozzi for the Alex Cora role next year while Lombardozzi gets regular playing time in Syracuse. At any rate I'm happy for him that he persevered to work himself back to this point. And he could well be an excellent find by Rizzo.John C.noreply@blogger.com