tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post9051503329892423904..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: The importance of the sac flyMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-28550105851201510702011-10-22T15:05:42.547-04:002011-10-22T15:05:42.547-04:00This guy's sac fly was pretty meaningful. I&...This guy's <a href="http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=271001127" rel="nofollow"> sac fly </a> was pretty meaningful. I'm not saying, I'm just saying... (Yeah, yeah, I know. Maybe Holliday was safe and maybe he wasn't... :-))natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-36526860508831408942011-10-22T14:12:44.249-04:002011-10-22T14:12:44.249-04:00I'm betting the Nationals would have won at le...I'm betting the Nationals would have won at least six more games with a sac fly. As a former coach, a player who brought the runner home from third was always "my man". How many games per week did the Nats have a man on third, less than two outs and get nothing. Runs are golden and like anyone I like a big inning as well as the next guy. But a hitter, against a tough pitcher who can ground it up the middle or loft a fairly deep fly ball can play for me all day.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-78015973258362879652011-10-22T10:09:13.767-04:002011-10-22T10:09:13.767-04:00They'll be in the independent Atlantic League ...They'll be in the independent Atlantic League and not affiliated with an MLB team.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-7727021408708512752011-10-22T10:04:24.367-04:002011-10-22T10:04:24.367-04:001a - yes, that has to be it. It is exactly where...1a - yes, that has to be it. It is exactly where she was referring to, she probably just had some of the details wrong. I must be living in a bubble - who are the Hounds, and which organization do they belong to? I couldn't quite figure that out. (or are they still searching for a team?)Wallyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01557557989122256161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-16955923269403368462011-10-22T09:45:25.169-04:002011-10-22T09:45:25.169-04:00Yes, I saw that piece as well. I'm wondering, ...Yes, I saw that piece as well. I'm wondering, though, whether the realtor may have been referencing the <a href="http://www.loudounhounds.com/thedogyard.php" rel="nofollow"> Hounds </a>park?natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-16753469145506901502011-10-22T09:41:15.683-04:002011-10-22T09:41:15.683-04:00On a different topic, it looks like the P-Nats may...On a different topic, it looks like the P-Nats may be moving to Loudon County. I noticed Goessling posted something about it, but I had an indirect connection to it. My business has its office in Fairfax County, right on the border with Loudon County. We are in the process of moving offices, and I met with a realtor to go over space options. As part of that, she told me unprompted that their firm is involved in the Loudon stadium project, which will be located just west of the Dulles mall (north of the airport), and that the owners were now signing contracts on space and construction contracts. So while there has been no announcement, it looks like it is happening.<br /><br />Pretty cool, from my view.Wallynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-19340210835904317082011-10-22T09:33:14.105-04:002011-10-22T09:33:14.105-04:00Thanks, Wally, that is an interesting read as well...Thanks, Wally, that is an interesting read as well, and a great site. Oops, gotta go. (Hey, you kids: get off my lawn!!)natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-86160496442583509872011-10-22T08:31:33.196-04:002011-10-22T08:31:33.196-04:00Natsfan1a - that was a good article. I don't ...Natsfan1a - that was a good article. I don't think it was the one that I was thinking of (which I can't seem to find), but it essentially gets to the same stuff. <br /><br />I thought that I found it in this one, but it stopped just a point or two short of what I remembered.<br /><br />http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/09/unraveling_the.php<br /><br />It must be that I was thinking of someone summarizing the book by Sian Beilock <i>Choke: What the Secrets of the Brain Reveal About Getting It Right When You Have To </i> .<br /><br />Wait, what were we talking about?Wallynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-47066014009390164052011-10-22T07:25:16.669-04:002011-10-22T07:25:16.669-04:00hmmm, that's the one, but it was *this* year&#...hmmm, that's the one, but it was *this* year's California trip. Wonder whether they've done any studies memory decline in, um, older sports fans? heh. But I digress. Anyhoo, interesting piece.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-72171380345208960002011-10-22T07:06:38.128-04:002011-10-22T07:06:38.128-04:00I think this is the one I had in mind:
http://spo...I think this is the one I had in mind:<br /><br />http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1188950/index.htmnatsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-24021256271631463362011-10-22T07:03:21.331-04:002011-10-22T07:03:21.331-04:00I'm wondering whether the article may have bee...I'm wondering whether the article may have been in Sports Illustrated. I recall reading something like that last year. Might have been this time of year, as I think I picked it up at an airport bookstore while en route to California to visit my brother. However, I'm thinking that the article I saw related to various sports, not just baseball, so maybe it's different.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-64614899613177028252011-10-21T23:04:17.011-04:002011-10-21T23:04:17.011-04:00In Baseball Prospectus there is a long (very long)...In Baseball Prospectus there is a long (very long) statistical analysis of whether clutch hitting "exists." In summary, the best clutch hitters are the best hitters. However, there is a small but meaningful difference between what hitters are expected to do based on their skill and what certain hitters actually do in high-leverage situations. <br /><br />"Producing wins at the plate is about 70 percent a matter of overall hitting ability, 28 percent dumb luck, and perhaps 2 percent clutch- or situational-hitting skill."<br /><br />Jonah Keri;Baseball Prospectus. Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong (p. 34). Kindle Edition.NatsLadyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814911056080758503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-20057071352794142082011-10-21T22:40:09.161-04:002011-10-21T22:40:09.161-04:00Thanks, Wally. And if you do manage to dig up that...Thanks, Wally. And if you do manage to dig up that article and want to share it, I would not say you nay.Scooternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-38567931343872563592011-10-21T22:19:49.355-04:002011-10-21T22:19:49.355-04:00I understand the argument on clutch a little diffe...I understand the argument on clutch a little differently (I didn't watch the Baseball Today episode, so I am going by your description, NL), or more specifically, why somebody isn't clutch. You first need to get to thousands of ABs for a hitter (ok, maybe not thousands, but a statistically meaningful sample), and that leads you to be able to measure a hitters true ability (those 9-1 ABs would wash away in the sample size). Adrenaline or pressure can't make him perform better than his true skill set (ie more 'clutch' than he is normally). At best, he can perform up to his skill level, and if he is a good hitter generally, and performs according to his true talent level in pressure situations, he will feel like a clutch hitter too. Ryan Zimmerman comes to mind. People who deviate from this pattern (meaning hit better with RISP than they do on average, let's say, or maybe you want to use high leverage situations) are usually thought to have too small of a 'clutch' sample for it to be reliable. So 1 year of it wouldn't be considered statistically reliable, but flukey or lucky. (btw, I think that really they mean random, not lucky, which people might be willing to accept more easily, but whatever). <br /><br />Conversely, 'choking' is attributable to when pressure or stress prevents a player from performing to his true talent level. Again, there needs to be statistically meaningful samples for any of this to be considered legit. I read a great article somewhere within the last year from a guy with a medical/biology background that tried to describe how the brain/body works for baseball skills, and talked about the reaction time on a 95mph FB, etc being so fast, that essentially players were reacting on a subconscious level to it. Choking happens when the awareness of the situation causes the brain and body to react less subconsciously, and more consciously, which slows reaction time, which leads to bad results. Literally, the scientific version of 'you're overthinking it'. I have no idea whether it was right (or even if I can find it), but I'll try to find it if anyone is interested.<br /><br />So, according to the theories as I understand them, you can't really be clutch, but you can be a choker. It takes some of the magic out of the game, but both of these feel right, to me.<br /><br />I hope everyone appreciates the effective sleep aid that I have just given you! Good night, and sweet dreams.Wallyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01557557989122256161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-78195906053349930472011-10-21T20:40:25.106-04:002011-10-21T20:40:25.106-04:00NatsLady said...
Right on about not GIDP with two...NatsLady said... <br />Right on about not GIDP with two outs, and with first base open (usually). I'd like to look at a really smart hitter--Jayson Werth comes to mind--and see if he has a plan for hitting that recognizes when it might be better to risk a strike out than a GIDP. <br /><br />In other words, how many times did he strike out with two out or first base open (I know he did sometimes, because we all sighed when he struck out to end an inning...). <br /><br />October 21, 2011 8:11 PM <br />_______________________________<br /><br />62 strikeouts w/ 2 outs and of those 62 he had 40 strikeouts w/ 2 outs and men on base.<br /><br />He had 46 strikeouts w/ RISP of which 26 were when there wasn't a runner on 1st.Gonatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-12303104518495320282011-10-21T20:31:07.379-04:002011-10-21T20:31:07.379-04:00baseballswami said...
Gonat - and a rookie who br...baseballswami said... <br />Gonat - and a rookie who broke a hr record,played fantastic defense, hustled every minute, and played in almost every game until late in the season. I think we can give the kid until next season to improve on that one thing. There are veterans with great reputations that swing and miss a lot - don't pick on the rookie. <br /><br />October 21, 2011 7:53 PM <br />_____________________________<br /><br />"He has to improve even though he had a league average OBP." <br />, but thanks for his statistical accomplishments.Gonatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-1282924777248939802011-10-21T20:23:27.207-04:002011-10-21T20:23:27.207-04:00In listening to discussions that "debunk"...In listening to discussions that "debunk" clutch hitting, e.g., on Baseball Today, the arguments run something like, "If you say a major league player hits better in clutch situations then you are saying he is lazy the rest of the time" or "Players that buckle under pressure don't make it to the majors."<br /><br />Both arguments are COMPLETE BUNK!! Of course players are "lazy" in some situations. Would you expend your maximum effort in the ninth inning down 7-1? Maybe, but probably not, unless you are going for the triple crown. <br /><br /> Players conserve energy for the crucial situations, that makes logical sense, and those who conserve energy the best, and who are the best at judging what they can do in crucial situations and against what pitches--those are the clutch hitters. Players know, just like managers, that a good team will lose a lot of games, and win a certain number of lopsided victories. So OF COURSE they are more alert, adrenalin kicking in, in the high leverage situations. And when adrenalin kicks in, eyesight is better, etc., etc.<br /><br />As for players who are not affected by "external" circumstances, I hope that's hooey too, or we fans might as well never cheer!NatsLadyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814911056080758503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-79692288099844373702011-10-21T20:11:50.052-04:002011-10-21T20:11:50.052-04:00Right on about not GIDP with two outs, and with fi...Right on about not GIDP with two outs, and with first base open (usually). I'd like to look at a really smart hitter--Jayson Werth comes to mind--and see if he has a plan for hitting that recognizes when it might be better to risk a strike out than a GIDP. <br /><br />In other words, how many times did he strike out with two out or first base open (I know he did sometimes, because we all sighed when he struck out to end an inning...).NatsLadyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814911056080758503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-79156627810082158422011-10-21T20:04:28.543-04:002011-10-21T20:04:28.543-04:00Oh, wait. There's a "good" button. D...Oh, wait. There's a "good" button. D'oh! I guess I'm with Young in that I don't care how my guys score the runs, just so they score 'em. Sac flies work for me. Seems like I've read some debunking of clutchiness, um, clutchness, uh, clutch hitting as well, Another_Sam, but I can't recall just where. Oh, and bonus points to Roberto for his use of insouciance.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-9114415343235410342011-10-21T19:59:51.401-04:002011-10-21T19:59:51.401-04:00If there were a like button then I would totally &...If there were a like button then I would totally "like" this post.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-24001244250672562072011-10-21T19:53:21.491-04:002011-10-21T19:53:21.491-04:00Gonat - and a rookie who broke a hr record,played ...Gonat - and a rookie who broke a hr record,played fantastic defense, hustled every minute, and played in almost every game until late in the season. I think we can give the kid until next season to improve on that one thing. There are veterans with great reputations that swing and miss a lot - don't pick on the rookie.baseballswaminoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-29533389891055361102011-10-21T19:47:04.954-04:002011-10-21T19:47:04.954-04:00NatsLady, some of that is true but you can't h...NatsLady, some of that is true but you can't hit into a DP with 2 outs and you generally aren't hitting into a doubleplay when 1st base isn't occupied.<br /><br />The thought is a strikeout is a non-productive out. If the ball was put into play, the result can be a hit or advance a runner. Strikeouts are part of the game and strikeouts need to be in proper ratios.<br /><br />The one player that concerned me was Danny Espinosa. Highest K rate and worst swing & miss on the team. He has to improve even though he had a league average OBP.Gonatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-63419181099985913632011-10-21T17:58:19.446-04:002011-10-21T17:58:19.446-04:00I just read this interesting remark about strikeou...I just read this interesting remark about strikeouts.<br /><br />Studies have shown that a player who strikes out a lot isn't hurting his team by any significant margin versus a player who strikes out far less, assuming their other statistics are the same. Although a strikeout can't advance a runner the way a "productive" groundout or flyout can, a batter who doesn't make contact also can't ground into a double play. The benefit of the occasional runner advancement is canceled out by the cost of the double plays, making the strikeout, on average, no worse than other kinds of batting outs. But try telling that to a manager who's just watched his hitter swing and miss twelve times in a game. The bias against high-strikeout hitters remains alive and well, facts be damned.<br /><br />Jonah Keri;Baseball Prospectus. Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong (p. 10). Kindle Edition.NatsLadyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814911056080758503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-37107458384426864802011-10-21T16:38:25.243-04:002011-10-21T16:38:25.243-04:00Has anyone researched what impact that would have ...Has anyone researched what impact that would have occurred on the averages of Ruth, DiMaggio and other pre-Sacfli hitters?bobnhttp://google.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-67451431991860865382011-10-21T16:04:11.842-04:002011-10-21T16:04:11.842-04:00The first couple of postings were what I was think...The first couple of postings were what I was thinking as I read this article. In my admittedly subjective assessment, I feel that the miserable sac fly performance is just a funtion of general poor performance at the plate. <br /><br />Sabremetrics are a cool armchair thing, but didn't some study pretty much debunk situational hitting, esecially clutch hitting, entirely?Another_Samnoreply@blogger.com