tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post8060414508832060231..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: What lineup makes sense?Mark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger127125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-61051108526289690142013-01-10T01:39:08.423-05:002013-01-10T01:39:08.423-05:00Some here have suggested that Kurt Suzuki's nu...Some here have suggested that Kurt Suzuki's numbers weren't very good in Oakland. <br /><br />Here are his 162-game averages:<br /><br />Ave:.258--Double:31--Triples:2--HR:15--RBI:74<br /><br />He's not Johnny Bench but neither is he Jim French.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07511258100772625570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-70291959624804193392013-01-10T00:35:46.678-05:002013-01-10T00:35:46.678-05:00And more drinks all around, this time for realdeal...And more drinks all around, this time for realdealnats and JD! As my post noted, the lineup isn't rocket science. We'll see if Davey sees it the same way.John C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00177992237175546115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-54137730218501434022013-01-10T00:34:10.332-05:002013-01-10T00:34:10.332-05:00Thanks for the drink, Ghost! My beverage of choice...Thanks for the drink, Ghost! My beverage of choice is Diet Coke; happy to collect at the NI bar :-)<br /><br />For clarity, I'm pretty sure (too lazy/too tired to look it up) that I had the #7 and #8 spots the same way Mark does, too. They just didn't change based on who the 1b turned out to be.<br /><br />One of the things that makes Derek Jeter special is that, year in and year out, against the best teams in the major leagues and under the intense spotlight that is playoff baseball, he produces at the same level as he does in mid-July playing against the Royals or Orioles. That is a gift, my friends. John C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00177992237175546115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-39824803638591923402013-01-10T00:32:14.190-05:002013-01-10T00:32:14.190-05:00Just went back looking for when I posted Mark'...Just went back looking for when I posted Mark's lineup--many of us did I'm sure b/c it makes so much sense--so I started on November 29th right after we got Span--and JD had it shortly after 5 pm...realdealnatshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01859440944007854256noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-687692180765782712013-01-10T00:11:03.616-05:002013-01-10T00:11:03.616-05:00Last night I posted my predictions for a worst-cas...Last night I posted my predictions for a worst-case scenario for this lineup this coming year.<br /><br />I'm almost afraid to do this but here goes my predictions for a best case scenario. A # indicates best major league season and a * shows what I think could happen:<br /><br />CF-Span (#) .311-8-68, 25 SB<br />RF-Werth (*) .275-20-70, 20 SB<br />LF-Harper (*) .300-30-100, 20 SB<br />3B-Zimmerman (#) .292-33-106, <br />1B-LaRoche (*).265-25-95<br />SS-Desmond (#) .292-25-73, 20 SB<br />2B-Espinosa (*) .250-21-66, 25 SB<br />C-Suzuki/Ramos (*) .270-20-60<br /><br />That's a pretty amazing lineup if they are hitting on all cylinders. <br /><br />Combine that with our starting lineup, and 100+ wins is a real possibility. <br /><br />I'm a little concerned with the bullpen but Mike Rizzo is a whole lot smarter than me, and I'm guessing that the Nats will end up with one or two strong middle-relievers in a trade for Michael Morse.<br /><br />Farid @ IdahoUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07511258100772625570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-10285340934336061492013-01-09T15:52:48.166-05:002013-01-09T15:52:48.166-05:00Yes, and it is I suspect, how Davey will likely se...Yes, and it is I suspect, how Davey will likely see it. Your lineup looks about right Mark.perichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02669200119049715758noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-15612307146765929702013-01-09T14:33:27.336-05:002013-01-09T14:33:27.336-05:00JD said ....players that wilt under pressure find ...JD said ....players that wilt under pressure find themselves out of work.<br />______________________<br /><br />Agreed. HenRod and Espi and the spotlight on Storen and Gio.<br /><br />"we smelled blood in the water"Gonathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05622413303529086490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-62835848141533519622013-01-09T14:27:02.272-05:002013-01-09T14:27:02.272-05:00After looking at Kurt Suzukis career numbers his s...After looking at Kurt Suzukis career numbers his stats with the Nats look like a blip. He's been a butcher with the bat.<br /><br /> Gonathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05622413303529086490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-7148328693630317052013-01-09T14:14:35.602-05:002013-01-09T14:14:35.602-05:00GoSm,
What Bowdenball is saying is that statisti...<br /> GoSm,<br /><br /> What Bowdenball is saying is that statisticians have compared massive data for many players over a very long period of time and have shown that there is no statistical data to support the concept of a 'clutch' hitter. Your Espi example above is still statistically insignificant because the difference between .209 and .289 on 156 at bats is what? 5 hits?<br /><br /> There is a great feeling in New York; universally believed that Derek Jeter is one of the greatest post season performers of all time and that he outperforms his regular season by a lot. The sort of thinking that when the chips are on the line he tries and performs better. The data has shown that this theory is completely bunk because Jeter's numbers in the post season are virtually the same as they are in the regular season.<br /><br /> I am going to contradict myself a bit here. I do believe that some people (not just athletes) handle pressure better than others but I do think that players that wilt under pressure quickly find themselves out of work.JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10464376699196421043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-76618774246869572742013-01-09T14:10:23.465-05:002013-01-09T14:10:23.465-05:00I was just scratching my head trying to think who ...I was just scratching my head trying to think who wore uni number zero. Ohnevermind. New post. :-)natsfan1ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14540238101124316529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-77401615897252498712013-01-09T14:07:49.145-05:002013-01-09T14:07:49.145-05:00Big Fat ZERO into the HOF this yearBig Fat ZERO into the HOF this yearMicheleShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04972863154063796569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-32548875056989078682013-01-09T14:06:55.779-05:002013-01-09T14:06:55.779-05:00Faraz, I'm not suggesting that at all unless E...Faraz, I'm not suggesting that at all unless Espi was traded. To me, that time has passed and Espi gets his chance to prove himself. Lombo will be the backup.Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-46271221774189594082013-01-09T14:05:20.429-05:002013-01-09T14:05:20.429-05:00Harper in the 2 hole can score his 100 runs which ...Harper in the 2 hole can score his 100 runs which he would have if he played the whole month of April but in the 3 hole will have the opportunity to knock in 100 runs. When you do the combination of both with a solid OPS you get in the MVP discussion.<br /><br />Harper deserves it!Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-35951005210668499572013-01-09T14:04:28.773-05:002013-01-09T14:04:28.773-05:00GoSM, thanks for those stats but my main compariso...GoSM, thanks for those stats but my main comparison has been between Danny and Lombo since Lombo should replace Danny or so you are suggesting. Faraz Shaikhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00633161449674428190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-79025758546145938042013-01-09T14:03:57.500-05:002013-01-09T14:03:57.500-05:00Fox, a very good thing. Harper has a chance in the...Fox, a very good thing. Harper has a chance in the 3 hole to put up some MVP type of stats.Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-79650236409678352552013-01-09T14:00:57.303-05:002013-01-09T14:00:57.303-05:00Espi's RISP with 156 plate appearances in 2012...Espi's RISP with 156 plate appearances in 2012: .209/.308/.358/.666 <br /><br />Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-89808702891651261812013-01-09T13:54:29.140-05:002013-01-09T13:54:29.140-05:00Ghost,
Both Span and Werth see a lot of pitches w...Ghost,<br /><br />Both Span and Werth see a lot of pitches which is a very good thing for this team that does strike out a lot. I would like to see Span and Werth bat 1 and 2 but after that I'm open for almost anything. I would look at pitching match ups, play whose hot etc. Having a fast LH'r batting 3rd like Harper might decrease double plays? Getting ALR up to the plate with a man on 2nd or a base stealer on first would probably negate the shift?<br /><br />I would see what works it's a long season and the pitching will be the most important thing for this team although I think this team will hit pretty well too. Tegwarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05014621891563545863noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-37477630438870305932013-01-09T13:52:50.687-05:002013-01-09T13:52:50.687-05:00Faraz, those stats are always going to be small be...Faraz, those stats are always going to be small because of the opportunities in that spot but his RISP isn't.Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-58269958695088486802013-01-09T13:51:34.057-05:002013-01-09T13:51:34.057-05:00JD, I'm giving you my definition of clutch tha...JD, I'm giving you my definition of clutch that its what you do in certain situation and stats are kept on that. I'm not talking about a great feeling in my stomach.Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-31021719572708375402013-01-09T13:50:24.626-05:002013-01-09T13:50:24.626-05:00On 3rd - 2 out:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/...On 3rd - 2 out:<br />http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=bases%7Con%203rd%2C%202%20out%7Cespinda01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C<br /><br />http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=bases%7Con%203rd%2C%202%20out%7Clombast02%7Cbat%7CAB%7C<br /><br />Can we please say small sample size? To be honest, I am not a big fan of these numbers to argue for or agaisnt Danny because pitching match-ups, rookie or not, and small samples.Faraz Shaikhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00633161449674428190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-37271085993200794672013-01-09T13:50:22.992-05:002013-01-09T13:50:22.992-05:00Faraz, here you go:
.267 /.334 /.445 /.779 Wilso...Faraz, here you go:<br /><br />.267 /.334 /.445 /.779 Wilson Ramos 2011<br />.277 /.333 /.426 /.759 Stephen Strasburg<br />.267 /.321 /.404 /.725 Suzuki w/ Nats<br />.247 /.315 /.402 /.717 Espinosa<br />.218 /.250 /.286 /.536 Suzuki w/ A's<br /><br />While you can say a good #8 hitters OBP may inflate due to walks, batting average wouldn't since you have no protection. Poor #8 hitters don't get walked. Also of note is Espinosa had 13 HBPs which led the team and is factored into OBP and OPS.<br /><br />Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-16728193134328935632013-01-09T13:50:05.478-05:002013-01-09T13:50:05.478-05:00
GoSm,
the ability to hit in high leverage and ...<br /> GoSm,<br /><br /> the ability to hit in high leverage and with RISP and such are calculated in stats.<br /><br /> And the recorded data shows that what Bowdenball is saying is exactly right. The concept of clutch hitting is an idea created through fan emotion based on specific memorable situations but in the end good hitters hit well in all situations and bad hitters generally fail in most situations.JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10464376699196421043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-79895836465356866842013-01-09T13:48:20.136-05:002013-01-09T13:48:20.136-05:00GoSM-
Yes, those things are calculated. But just ...GoSM-<br /><br />Yes, those things are calculated. But just because something is compiled doesn't make it meaningful or important.<br /><br />There is virtually no correlation between how a player does at the stat in one season relative to his "normal" performance and how he does the next season. It's purely random. That's why it's said that "clutch" doesn't exist. Clutch hits and clutch performances exist, but clutch performers do not. So there's no reason to incorporate it when putting together a lineup. A player's "normal" stats and skill set tells you everything you need to know. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-901288312473978872013-01-09T13:48:10.237-05:002013-01-09T13:48:10.237-05:00I like Span and Werth together for the amount of p...I like Span and Werth together for the amount of pitches they will spend. I like Bryce after Werth because it seems to do something special for Bryce. I like Zim and ALR with runners on base ahead of them. I like Desi and Danny for speed IF Danny can get on base. And I like it that our pitchers can handle bats instead of just being a giant black hole, instant out in the line up. And this is all without Morse? Can we please fast forward? By the way, imaginary friends, is anyone else getting just a bit tired of the HOF, steroids debate? I will be glad when it's over, even though they will probably continue to talk about it for a while.baseballswamihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03473384422940931212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-54525616970307226752013-01-09T13:46:03.092-05:002013-01-09T13:46:03.092-05:00GoSM, I doubt anyone gets it right without looking...GoSM, I doubt anyone gets it right without looking up stats. I know Danny is number 4 since I have seen his stats more times than I would like to admit.<br /><br />Also we agree on many things but Danny is one topic I completely disagree with you.<br /><br />Danny's defense is easily top 3, if not the best in major league (not NL or AL). Phillips (who is usually handed GG at the end of each season despite what he actually does) can make more fancy plays but he wished he had Danny's range and arm. I agree with Teddy that Danny is top ten 2B in majors. Not only that I think many teams are envious of our middle IF combination of power, speed, and superb defense. I am not willing to break that combo to gamble on Lombo's contact skills. Ks is definitely danny's problem but saying he had more Ks than Reynolds is not the correct conclusion since Reynolds had worse K% (due to 100 less PAs) than Danny. It is pretty obvious that I love the guy to death so some of my conclusions may be biased but I really think Danny (and Danny-Ian combo) is very valuable to Nats.Faraz Shaikhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00633161449674428190noreply@blogger.com