tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post7763523788231982122..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: Back to baseballMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger71125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-8502958506845909032011-11-14T21:40:47.007-05:002011-11-14T21:40:47.007-05:00Eugene.
Right on. That's what the MLB guys sai...Eugene.<br />Right on. That's what the MLB guys said--Boston, Philly, NY have enough money to ignore the "rules." We don't--unless the Lerners are willing to spend a whole lot on what are ultimately guesses. In the end, I think that's self-defeating, and if you spend tons and don't win, a lot can go sour.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-71580926176330969562011-11-14T19:32:11.724-05:002011-11-14T19:32:11.724-05:00The problem with Crisp is that Harper looks better...The problem with Crisp is that Harper looks better ... most especially OBP wise? Why would would you spend money on an expensive backup when you already have Bernadina, Brown, and perhaps Ankiel? And Ankiel and Brown are better defensively.<br /><br />Harper might actually be the best lead-off since Soriano if we use Soriano as the yardstick? So Crisp makes no sense given Davey Johnson's desire to move forward and attempt to win with the youth currently within the organization. He's not Acta and he's certainly not Riggleman.<br /><br />The problem with Buehrle is that what if Detwiler is ready? How about Tommy Milone? They still have Gorzelanny. And there's John Lannan. Plus Solis could be ready at some point this year.<br /><br />Therefore, he probably makes absolutely no sense from the current Nats manager's perspective. And he wants a multi-year contract and he's likely pretty expensive.<br /><br />Stark doesn't know what he's talking about ... I believe Rizzo when he says he plans some trades. Rizzo still has a problem ... if Johnson wants Harper in his outfield ... and Johnson wants to use Detwiler as a starter? <br /><br />There's no holes there, no position for Buehrle or Crisp.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-87694715677194962502011-11-14T19:20:20.643-05:002011-11-14T19:20:20.643-05:00Eugene - well said.
I think the reliever market a...Eugene - well said.<br /><br />I think the reliever market also implies we ought to bring back Gorzy, even at $2.5m or so. He was pretty effective in the pen, both here and with CHC. A veteran lefty on the market probably gets two years and maybe $6-8m total. I think SF signed a guy like Gorzy to something like that. We could probably trade him if we don't want to keep him for that price (although I would keep him).Wallynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-48520599656856705522011-11-14T16:31:38.932-05:002011-11-14T16:31:38.932-05:00One point more on shopping relievers around, just ...One point more on shopping relievers around, just to see what happens: <b>Rizzo</b> would benefit from finding out what deals are out there, I agree, but <b>we</b> would not, for it to be effective--probably just the opposite, in fact, since negotiating business deals in the press is generally not a good strategy. Just sayin.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-25897676782737853852011-11-14T16:29:09.862-05:002011-11-14T16:29:09.862-05:00Rizzo (or any GM) would be negligent if he didn...<i>Rizzo (or any GM) would be negligent if he didn't listen to offers for even his most popular players. And 'listening' (or even 'shopping') certainly is the same thing as 'agreeing'.</i><br /><br />They likely lost Cole Kimball permanently and gave up on Adam Carr so I sincerely doubt that Rizzo will seriously consider any offers on Clippard, Storen, HRod, Mattheus won't be going anywhere ... <br /><br />However Balester, Stammen, and Lannan might be in trades. With lefty Josh Smoker now a Fangraph's "sleeper" plus Rafael Martin and Hassan Pena there likely are more on the way to replace both Kimball and Carr. <br /><br />The Nats really only need a veteran reliever to stabilize a young bullpen. I don't consider Clippard, Storen, Mattheus and even H-Rod all that young anymore. With Gorzelanny rounding them out on the left-side it begs the question as to whether another lefty specialist might be needed. If Detwiler doesn't start he might provide that. <br /><br />In any case I think Madson is a righty.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-53001480340051917562011-11-14T16:07:34.201-05:002011-11-14T16:07:34.201-05:00Oldguy,
The 'moneyball' mode really had s...Oldguy,<br /><br />The 'moneyball' mode really had several different -- albeit inter-related -- elements. One was, of course, the focus on non-traditional (at the time) stats and how they might better explain how runs are produced and wins achieved. That's obviously what the moviemakers chose to focus on. Another key element was to acknowledge the greater predictive value of university-level competitive stats, while simultaneously being much more careful about drafting high school players based on inflated stats and the eyes of old-time scouts. But the fundamental premise, akin to 'value' investing in stocks, was to figure out what skills or attributes were undervalued or overvalued at any given time, i.e., to identify and then take advantage of the inefficiencies in the market. But those mis-valued skills will change over time, as teams bid up the price on one or more 'ability' (e.g., OBP, WHIP) while letting the price fall on skills that had previously been overvalued (we're seeing this happen with one-dimensional hitters in the AL as the price for bat-only DHs keeps falling).<br /><br />When you say "Boston got into that mode early..." I think you mean mainly the first element: recognizing that counting stats (for hitters) and ERA and W-L record (for pitchers) can only take you so far. What Boston doesn't do -- clearly -- is worry too much about the over-valued/under-valued bit. Or, maybe said a little differently, Boston (and Philly with Papelbon's contract) are more than willing to contribute to the over-valuation of whatever skill-set they need in any given offseason. And that's fine for a rich team, that isn't worried about its payroll.<br /><br />But relief pitchers (not limited to closers) have been going up in value for several years now, and it would appear that the reliever market is in the process of completely divorcing itself from reality. At some point, that bubble will burst, just like the tech and housing bubbles burst in the U.S. economy.<br /><br />Until then, if the Nats are smart, they'll stay out of the FA market (say 'no' to Madson, please, regardless of what you do with Storen) and listen to offers for some of our better (or even worse) relievers. I'm not suggesting that the Nats actively shop Storen, but he and Clippard (and probably even Rodriquez) may attract some can't-ignore offers. And as we hear and read rumors about such discussions, let's remember that putting the team together is a huge, multi-variable equation. Rizzo (or any GM) would be negligent if he didn't listen to offers for even his most popular players. And 'listening' (or even 'shopping') certainly is the same thing as 'agreeing'.Eugene in Oregonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-22821844732214042192011-11-14T15:59:44.585-05:002011-11-14T15:59:44.585-05:00Sec 3, I pencil it up like this:
Crisp CF
Werth R...<i>Sec 3, I pencil it up like this:</i><br /><br /><i>Crisp CF<br />Werth RF<br />Zimmerman 3B<br />Morse LF<br />LaRoche 1B<br />Desmond SS<br />Espinosa 2B<br />Ramos C<br />Pitcher</i><br /><br />However, unless you think D. Johnson is a sideshow clown and nothing<br />he says is relevant then its going to be:<br /><br />Desmond SS - Lombardozzi backup<br />Espinosa 2B - Lombardozzi backup<br />Zimmerman 3B - Lombardozzi backup<br />Morse LF - Ankiel, Bernadina, Brown backup<br />Werth CF - Ankiel, Bernadina, Brown backup<br />Harper RF - Ankiel, Bernadina, Brown backup<br />LaRoche 1B - Tyler Moore, Marrero backup<br />Ramos C - Jesus Flores, Jhonatan Solano backup<br />Pitcher.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-73890402042966483062011-11-14T15:51:58.025-05:002011-11-14T15:51:58.025-05:00I expect we'll find out whether the Nats get a...I expect we'll find out whether the Nats get another pitcher or a CF in about 10 days or so. <br /><br />I expect they'll sign Oswalt to compete for a starting slot. Perhaps they'll trade Lannan et al for a backup CF which makes no sense since they already have three pretty decent possibilities in Ankiel, Bernadina, and Brown. All left-handed hitters. With Harper in the outfield picture there's no room for Werth except in center field. Last year's best hitter is stuck in left field unless LaRoche is a part of a trade package. <br /><br />On Harper. I think he needs more seasoning but I trust Davey Johnson will know how to give him that at the major league level. I wouldn't have trusted Riggleman with him. Under the heading of so soon we forget? Remember when two of the three starting outfielders were Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes? Let anyone here state that either of those two were better choices than using Harper now. There's two productive reasons for keeping Harper with Randy Knorr: He might learn to be a .400 hitter someday. Would more minors experience give him that? He would become a far better outfielder ... but wait didn't Josh Willingham, bad knees and all, convert from catcher to outfielder when he came to the majors? That may also be a future part-time spot for one Derrick Norris as well!<br /><br />So, what's left folks? His age. Davey seems pretty confident about that ... so why not give ol' Davey what he wants. Move Werth to center while providing 1-2 competent backups behind him.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-3072201837214441072011-11-14T15:44:34.621-05:002011-11-14T15:44:34.621-05:00Just a follow up on some local views of the kiddna...Just a follow up on some local views of the kiddnapping. The link is in English:<br /><br />http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/111114/an-inexperienced-band-abducted-wilson-ramos-authorities-sayTcostantnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-73004395308968066802011-11-14T14:50:04.448-05:002011-11-14T14:50:04.448-05:00Ned Beatty said...
I know about some of the traum...<i>Ned Beatty said... <br />I know about some of the trauma Wilson Ramos has been under. I had a very bad experience in northern Georgia about forty years ago. The pain and anguish will subside. But it will take time. </i><br /><br />I hear primal oink therapy can work wonders.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-33668553026407022972011-11-14T14:35:56.985-05:002011-11-14T14:35:56.985-05:00The Phillies will regret the Papelbon deal. Been f...The Phillies will regret the Papelbon deal. Been following Boston for years, and as good as "Pap" could be, he's also something of a head case. <br /><br />MLB did a very interesting segment the other day on what's happened with the "moneyball" phenomenon. (I just read the book and saw the movie.) Boston got into that mode early by hiring Bill James. Theo Epstein was a disciple. MLB's take was that some teams (like Boston) have lost sight of the original concept and have made some bad moves (Dice-K, Lackey and Crawford, in Boston's case--but you could add Howard and Papelbon for Philly.)<br /><br />What this means for the Nats is hard to say. What about Werth? Going out after big names that may or may not be worth it? The core of the Red Sox is still their home-grown talent: Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis, Lester, Buchholz, Lowrie. Those are the guys who will keep them where they have been. (Forget September--an aberration overblown by the always vicious Boston media.)<br /><br />If there's anything to take from the history of MLB in this century, it's "start young, be patient, build from within." I would be happy if the Nats spent every dime on locking up our core, and investing the rest in development.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-8167694527877119582011-11-14T14:30:47.495-05:002011-11-14T14:30:47.495-05:00Jim Hoy and SayNo, exxxcelllent. (Oh, and release ...Jim Hoy and SayNo, exxxcelllent. (Oh, and release the hounds.)natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-12357507527082130182011-11-14T14:20:25.993-05:002011-11-14T14:20:25.993-05:00I know about some of the trauma Wilson Ramos has b...I know about some of the trauma Wilson Ramos has been under. I had a very bad experience in northern Georgia about forty years ago. The pain and anguish will subside. But it will take time.Ned Beattynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-35290294831473084382011-11-14T14:18:20.486-05:002011-11-14T14:18:20.486-05:00Steve M. said...
NIKE!Steve M. said... <br /><br />NIKE!UNTERPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-3569830085150104912011-11-14T14:14:27.034-05:002011-11-14T14:14:27.034-05:00SteveM - I don't mind a $$ overpay on a shorte...SteveM - I don't mind a $$ overpay on a shorter term contract: 2 years, maybe 3. If Oswalt cost 2/$25m instead of 2/$20m, fine. Our payroll profiles well - pretty low right now for the rest of the team, but Zim, Werth, Stras, Ramos, Espy, Morse all will be getting expensive by 2014/15. But if the market starts adding years, especially multiple years, then I might pass. It all depends on specifics, of course, but those kinds of deals can really hurt a franchise for a while. For instance, I heard speculation today that Wilson will get 5 years with maybe a 6th year vesting option. I'd pass. I'd go 2 for Oswalt, 3 for Buehrle, and maybe 4 for Jackson or Wilson.<br /><br />I agree that the Nats are in a position to be bold, but I would offer two shopping guidelines: (i) we should really make sure that the FA is a better player than what we already have, rather than the 'best of what's out there'; sounds obvious, but I think GMs make this mistake quite a bit. when you get past the top 10 or so, I am not sure that those guys are better than what we have; and (ii) I don't think any pitcher in this crop is worth more than 4 years, so I would focus more on length of contract than AAV.<br /><br />I am starting to sour on FA because I think prices may get crazy for moderately good players (basing a lot on the Papelbon deal + rumors). I really hope that Rizzo is working the trade lines, in addition to free agency. We have depth at some valuable commodities right now, the way the market is breaking: cheap and controllable back end starters to fill out a rotation, good, cheap and controllable relievers, and cheap and controllable MI (and maybe good?).Wallynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-47377076509830758042011-11-14T13:42:59.512-05:002011-11-14T13:42:59.512-05:00jd, it isn't justification, just the way it is...jd, it isn't justification, just the way it is. If the Nats want to improve, they will have to sign a FA or 2 or make some trades. Holding firm and crowing about the cost of doing business is what loser teams do.<br /><br />To get Buehrle or Oswalt, they will pay over market on them. It is the cost of doing business. I never said I liked it. This wouldn't have made sense 2 seasons ago, but now that the Nats are on the door-step, they have to climb inside. Its much better than the precipice they were on a few years ago.<br /><br />Rizzo, JUST DO IT!Steve M.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-83827886957696561282011-11-14T13:31:33.965-05:002011-11-14T13:31:33.965-05:00Wally,
You are 1000% right. As much as we love Cl...Wally,<br /><br />You are 1000% right. As much as we love Clip and Storen; as relievers they can only change so many games in a year vs. other less celebrated relievers. Tampa flipped their entire bullpen and their overall results didn't suffer much in 2011.<br /><br />Given the inflated cost of relievers these days what we have is a gold mine in value and it's absolutely valid and even smart to consider cashing in some of this value.jdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-82072907119002419122011-11-14T13:27:27.599-05:002011-11-14T13:27:27.599-05:00Mark'd, Steve M.
To me you don't justify...Mark'd, Steve M.<br /><br /> To me you don't justify a bad FA deal just because others are doing it; as well using Kearns as an example doesn't mean anything.<br /><br /> Every player has a value based on how many wins he can be expected to add to the team; paying over that means you have to take away money elsewhere; after all one always operates within a budget.<br /><br /> This is why the FA market is usually a fool's market where you pay for what a player has done (plus plus) and not for what he will do forward. The far better way is smart trades (like what Wally is suggesting) and the amateur draft.jdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-50473250093718604312011-11-14T13:25:29.614-05:002011-11-14T13:25:29.614-05:00Jim Hoy, you have embiggened this blog with that c...Jim Hoy, you have embiggened this blog with that comment.<br /><br />Jim Hoy said...<br /><br /> As an editor and marketing writer, I can say that "craptacular," "craptastic," and "crapuscular" are all perfectly cromulent words.SayNoToClintnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-7803512278521620552011-11-14T13:25:04.464-05:002011-11-14T13:25:04.464-05:00Mark'd said...
Jd, the talent level in this F...<i>Mark'd said... <br />Jd, the talent level in this FA class is really small which supply and demand will drive up prices. You can't walk away from Buehrle due to the price. Someone will overpay by $3 to $4 mill a year on a 3 year deal and eat roughly $10 million. <br /><br />That's still much less than the money they flushed away on Austin Kearns. <br /><br />November 14, 2011 12:42 PM </i><br /><br />Mark'd, I agree with you. If you are going to get your talent in Free Agency, it is time to pay.<br /><br />I thought the Papelbon deal was a little strange in that it was done so early in the Free Agent signing period and it didn't appear the market values were set at that point.Steve M.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-42918651421049961112011-11-14T13:20:05.108-05:002011-11-14T13:20:05.108-05:00Mark'd said...
Jd, the talent level in this F...<i>Mark'd said... <br />Jd, the talent level in this FA class is really small which supply and demand will drive up prices. You can't walk away from Buehrle due to the price. Someone will overpay by $3 to $4 mill a year on a 3 year deal and eat roughly $10 million. <br /><br />That's still much less than the money they flushed away on Austin Kearns. <br /><br />November 14, 2011 12:42 PM </i>Steve M.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-28081732327679093922011-11-14T12:59:07.272-05:002011-11-14T12:59:07.272-05:00I think we'd be just nuts to get Madson when w...I think we'd be just nuts to get Madson when we have Clip and Store. You wouldn't demote Madson to a middle-reliever or even set up guy. And we HAVE the best set-up man in Clip, and an honest-to-goodness big league closer in Storen. We should spend the money where it will do us some good.<br /><br />Second the corn cake stand at Nats park!JaneBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04882101532666365432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-69267235045872658812011-11-14T12:42:29.838-05:002011-11-14T12:42:29.838-05:00Jd, the talent level in this FA class is really sm...Jd, the talent level in this FA class is really small which supply and demand will drive up prices. You can't walk away from Buehrle due to the price. Someone will overpay by $3 to $4 mill a year on a 3 year deal and eat roughly $10 million. <br /><br />That's still much less than the money they flushed away on Austin Kearns.Mark'dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-84561314363226792142011-11-14T12:36:11.389-05:002011-11-14T12:36:11.389-05:00Been thinking about the Papelbon contract, and wha...Been thinking about the Papelbon contract, and what it might mean for relievers. While it is a horrible contract for the team in my view, I see it making Philly a little better than resigning Madson (meaning I see Papelbon producing better over the next 4 years, although not markedly so). Philly does look like they are going to enter payroll hell one of these years with all their contracts, but they are a pretty resourceful group so maybe they figure a way to transition.<br /><br />But it got me thinking that the reliever market may be way out of hand, cost wise, and as a believer generally that smart teams should try to exploit market inefficiencies, I think that the Nats should at least see what Storen or Clip would fetch in a trade as a premier reliever under several years of reasonable cost control. If you could trade Storen for Bourjos, or maybe Ellsbury (I know he has limited team control left, but I assume that a trade like this doesn't happen unless you can extend him), don't you have to at least think about it? What if we could trade him for a starter like Danks or Billingsly? I would probably do any of those, but at a minimum, I think that we should know what the options are.Wallynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-18976560538797365132011-11-14T12:35:40.854-05:002011-11-14T12:35:40.854-05:00Scratch off Matt Kemp off of the 2012 Free Agent l...Scratch off Matt Kemp off of the 2012 Free Agent list. Looks like he is close to signing an 8 year deal.Mark'dnoreply@blogger.com