tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post5209783270977155010..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: Harper, Zimmerman lead offensive surgeMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger155125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-70786440832285672822012-05-29T18:07:28.999-04:002012-05-29T18:07:28.999-04:00Theo,
Fair enough. I guess where I'm coming ...Theo,<br /><br />Fair enough. I guess where I'm coming from is this: I spent 30 years in a career where I learned that people's (and governments') perceptions of "reality" are quite often -- but certainly not always -- wrong. Maybe not 100% wrong, but flawed enough to impact decision-making for the worse. Thus, I appreciate the underlying stats in baseball, politics, economics, public policy, etc. that sometimes prove my own perceptions correct, but sometimes prove them to be missing some key factor or factors. Pitching stats are a great example (and I don't mean just the wins-losses question). But you could just as easily be talking about finding the right metrics to judge success/failure in a post-conflict zone (e.g., Iraq or Afghanistan). So, I don't disagree with you that sometimes successes (such as Mr. Harper) are pretty darn obvious. But I also know that sometimes you've got to dig a bit (a lot) deeper to make sense of what your eyes/mind think they saw or think they remember (e.g., that Reggie Jackson was a great 'clutch' hitter -- he was a superb hitter all arond, but his 'clutch' numbers were neither better nor worse than his norm).Eugene in Oregonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12530380750671346211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-42993298059673879182012-05-29T17:32:32.467-04:002012-05-29T17:32:32.467-04:00And the real question for Billy Beane isn't &#...<i>And the real question for Billy Beane isn't 'how many pennants?" but 'how many wins given the Oakland payroll?" </i><br /><br />Some people might argue the real question is "How many people were willing to pay to watch his teams?"Holden Baroquehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05941566402992955387noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-91671914160441848202012-05-29T17:14:39.040-04:002012-05-29T17:14:39.040-04:00Eugene --
You're a smart guy who adds a l...Eugene --<br /><br /> You're a smart guy who adds a lot to this blog. If you're still following this thread and haven't moved on to the new one, this is what I'm saying: You don't need stats to confirm what your eyes tell you about Harper. You don't need stats to tell you he has a bunch of extra-base hits and that this is extraordinary. Derek Jeter may have taken more extra bases than any active player. Way before that, the guys I remember were Vada Pinson and Rod Carew. No reason to look it up, all that was needed to remember the blur going from first to third.<br /><br /> Stats are used by people who need to vindicate what they think they are seeing, and by others looking to shore up a weak argument.Theophilus T. S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16532693473198519382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-3557131830382583642012-05-29T17:13:16.266-04:002012-05-29T17:13:16.266-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Theophilus T. S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16532693473198519382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-5997091153359591862012-05-29T16:50:51.669-04:002012-05-29T16:50:51.669-04:00Not I.
bowdenball said...
I hope nobody thin...Not I.<br /><br />bowdenball said...<br /><br /> I hope nobody thinks I was being a jerk here a la Greg's post.natsfan1ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14540238101124316529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-44359081877901211332012-05-29T15:57:08.280-04:002012-05-29T15:57:08.280-04:00Theo (@ 2:41 p.m.): I'm not exactly sure what ...Theo (@ 2:41 p.m.): I'm not exactly sure what you meant by "people take an instance -- such as Harper -- where statistics randomly coincide w/ reality and extrapolate that to a vindication of statistics that defy what your eyes see on the field." In fact, Bryce Harper's stats are not random. In his case, the stats confirm what our eyes and mind are telling us, i.e., that he's not just a 'flashy' ballplayer who hustles and sometimes turns a single into a double or otherwise makes the crowd gasp in astonishment at an impressive play (Roger Bernadina and Rick Ankiel can sometimes accomplish that). Instead, the stats confirm that Mr. Harper is a solid, substantive, productive contributor over a period of time (still short, but growing). And if, like me, your memory isn't perfect, the comparative help you put Mr. Harper's performance into a bit of historical context.<br /><br />Because what stats -- particularly some of the more advanced ones -- ultimately provide is a check on some of our inherent mental/psychological/observational biases. We see a great play and remember it; we don't remember the mediocre ones. We call someone a 'clutch' hitter because he drove in the game-winning runs in a couple of game we were watching or that were important. Our minds focus on that and not on the many times the same hitter failed to perform (or, perhaps better said, performed at his .250 norm) in many, many other games that we didn't see or that we just forget about. Stats don't 'defy' what your eyes see on the field, but they help you put what you see into some context -- sometimes positive (Mr. Harper), sometimes not (Danny Espinosa's LH hitting).<br /><br />P.S. - And the real question for Billy Beane isn't 'how many pennants?" but 'how many wins given the Oakland payroll?"Eugene in Oregonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00321559588541830539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-92204026546835855282012-05-29T15:49:13.974-04:002012-05-29T15:49:13.974-04:00Tcostant, see my post at 12:49. As (apparently) t...Tcostant, see my post at 12:49. As (apparently) the one and only Nats fan in the Raleigh DMA, I solved the problem, but it wasn't easy.NCNatsiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00208353346925459087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-7688544722968712422012-05-29T15:39:26.077-04:002012-05-29T15:39:26.077-04:00Fear and Ignorance said...
"AROD-.950 career...Fear and Ignorance said...<br /><br />"AROD-.950 career OPS<br />Jeter-.832 career OPS<br /><br />Who would you have rather lost in their prime?"<br /><br /><br />Rather have lost? Jeter, and it's not close. A-rod was by far the more valuable player. It's a HUGE difference, and I'm fairly confident that most GMs would agree with me on that.<br /><br />Look, you and I just see baseball differently- this argument makes that clear to me. So there's no need to continue this conversation. <br /><br />I do want to say that you are being a little unfair to Werth. You declared his .820 OPS days "likely behind him" despite an .810 OPS this season, and compared his ability to get on base and steal bases unfavorably to Lombo even though they got on base at the same rate, and Werth, unlike Lombo, actually as a few stolen bases in the majors to his credit. Not arguing, just saying that you should be fair and honest about the guy if you want to dismiss him.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-42594927014457320172012-05-29T15:35:56.371-04:002012-05-29T15:35:56.371-04:00On a lighter note...the Nats and Orioles are turni...On a lighter note...the Nats and Orioles are turning into a walking Seinfeld reference with Buck, Davey and now Dr. Jimmy Van Ostrand. Too funny!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-33705283216082334512012-05-29T15:30:37.559-04:002012-05-29T15:30:37.559-04:00Don't move to North Carolina if your a Nats fa...Don't move to North Carolina if your a Nats fan. Sometimes things are just stupid!<br /><br />http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/29/bad-news-for-you-if-you-want-to-watch-the-nats-or-orioles-in-north-carolina/Tcostanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13264565854413303198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-18844519600514037392012-05-29T15:26:22.761-04:002012-05-29T15:26:22.761-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Eugene in Oregonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00321559588541830539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-16293330843721750682012-05-29T15:26:14.690-04:002012-05-29T15:26:14.690-04:00I'm not an Espi hater, but I continue to belie...<i>I'm not an Espi hater, but I continue to believe, as I've been saying for weeks now, that the best thing for him and the team is a stretch -- maybe season-long, barring further injuries -- in AAA hitting righty only. </i><br /><br />Espy can also man the UTL position and probably be far better defensively than Lombo. Just start with the arm.<br /><br />If you think Espy is bad they are going to bring DeRosa back to man that spot? With a .083 batting average? Really? Seems like DeRosa should retire and they should give Espy that role, at least of this year, if they decide to start Lombo at second because DeRosa sure looks like he can't last a couple of games much less an entire season in the role, and without Lombardozzi doing it ... who do they have? Outside of Teahen in AAA?perichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02669200119049715758noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-79691437853318898242012-05-29T15:16:45.047-04:002012-05-29T15:16:45.047-04:00AROD-.950 career OPS
Jeter-.832 career OPS
Who wo...AROD-.950 career OPS<br />Jeter-.832 career OPS<br /><br />Who would you have rather lost in their prime?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-22451919727503712732012-05-29T15:15:47.666-04:002012-05-29T15:15:47.666-04:00When it rains it pours for the Phillies. Check ou...When it rains it pours for the Phillies. Check out this link about the <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/24/the-roy-halladay-bobblehead-has-something-wrong-with-it/comment-page-1/#comments" rel="nofollow">Halladay Bobblehead Fiasco</a>. <br /><br />Not quite as much of a fail as the Natinals uniform, but close. And the comments are hilarious.Section 222https://www.blogger.com/profile/17106128453333996193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-57578091130557275002012-05-29T15:12:05.688-04:002012-05-29T15:12:05.688-04:00My own untutored view is that Lombo has shown valu...My own untutored view is that Lombo has shown value enough as a leadoff hitter to have earned a regular spot in the lineup. When Morse comes back, the only spot reasonably available is 2b, which serendipitably is his natural position. I'm not an Espi hater, but I continue to believe, as I've been saying for weeks now, that the best thing for him and the team is a stretch -- maybe season-long, barring further injuries -- in AAA hitting righty only. If it works, his career might be made and his value to the team on the field or in trade will be maximized. <br /><br />If Lombo tanks, I'll be wrong, but I don't think holding him back because Espi tanked after a stellar 1st half last year is right, because they're such different hitters.<br /><br />Whether it's his genes, or having been around baseball since he was a toddler, Lombo's mechanics seem extra sound to me. He doesn't have Espi's upside, to be sure, but so far, he has what we need this year IMHO.NCNatsiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00208353346925459087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-13146924107477176882012-05-29T15:09:27.206-04:002012-05-29T15:09:27.206-04:00swami at 3:00 -- completely agree. He's not a ...swami at 3:00 -- completely agree. He's not a $126m player on the field, but if you add in all the things he does in practice, in the dugout, and in the clubhouse (as you described), AND his ability to work with Davey to shape the mindset of a winning team, AND the quantum leap in the credibility of the team and The Plan -- and this team's special chemistry -- that he gave by signing here and continuing to talk up The Plan and the FO thereafter, he may well be.Steady Eddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11342496530868597550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-78737837769574970872012-05-29T15:08:30.121-04:002012-05-29T15:08:30.121-04:00Bowdenball-Only if he has that .820 OPS that you k...Bowdenball-Only if he has that .820 OPS that you keep citing. He was at .718 last year and .810 this year. The .820 OPS days are likely behind him. I also don't think being a better hitter (which he hasn't been for 180 games now) means he is more valuable. Lead-off hitters who can hit .300, bunt, steal a few bases (which he should be able to do at some point) and move runners is harder to find than a corner outfielder who is league average at best right now. Just look at the struggles we have had finding a lead-off hitter. Has AROD been a better hitter than Jeter...YES!!! Is he more important...NO!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-8000815606730660622012-05-29T15:04:17.465-04:002012-05-29T15:04:17.465-04:00Garcia, thanks for your article and I agree on al...Garcia, thanks for your article and I agree on all counts. After recently seeing Harp take his typical huge turn at first on a routine line drive single, I said to a seat neighbor, "Worth the price of admission just to watch him do that". I guess you could argue that that shows up in SLG/OPS numbers, but just saying he hits a lot of XBHs partly as a result doesn't really capture very much of what makes him special.Steady Eddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11342496530868597550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-30503248371913714262012-05-29T15:01:45.106-04:002012-05-29T15:01:45.106-04:00A walk is not as good as a hit with RISP surely. ...A walk is not as good as a hit with RISP surely. But sometimes it's what you can get.NCNatsiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00208353346925459087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-36557117684325778972012-05-29T15:01:14.900-04:002012-05-29T15:01:14.900-04:00Theophilus
All due respect, but did you actually ...Theophilus<br /><br />All due respect, but did you actually read garciameister's post? You seem to have a chip on your shoulder about sabremetrics generally ("reduce baseball to numbers," "how many pennants you won lately, Billy," references to John Lannan, etc.) but your rant doesn't bear much relation to what s/he actually wrote.<br /><br />I think the best stats guys--Nate Silver, when he was still writing about baseball regularly, and Dave Cameron today--have a deep love of baseball and for what their eyes tell them about what's happening on the field. The numbers only deepen that appreciation. It's both/and, not either/or.<br /><br />Speaking of Cameron, he has a post about Harper today too. For those interested in such things, it's at:<br /><br />http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bryce-harper-is-making-history/hiramhoverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08496411226029547341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-14082803745362870602012-05-29T15:00:35.105-04:002012-05-29T15:00:35.105-04:00My opinion, FWIW , is that Jayson Werth's valu...My opinion, FWIW , is that Jayson Werth's value to this team is only partly stat related. I have noticed that he is almost a member of the coaching staff when he is in the dugout. I also think - no evidence, mind you, just observations - that he helps to keep the clubhouse stable. He has obviously been invaluable to Bryce. My feeling is that if you asked a lot of the players about Jayson's value to the team, his on-the-field activities would only be part of it. Different players bring different assets and skill sets to the table - it takes a good mix to make a good team. You just can't compare apples and oranges.baseballswamihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03473384422940931212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-91259501406062312912012-05-29T14:58:42.935-04:002012-05-29T14:58:42.935-04:00Thanks for the link, NatsLady.
I'd say two ch...Thanks for the link, NatsLady.<br /><br />I'd say two cheers only. As the story suggests, the centralized crew is an invitation to trouble by the randomness of how the four "central umps" are occupied, by having to follow too many games at once.<br /><br />As the story also suggests, MLB is reluctant to hire 15 new umps but that's the key to empowering the replay ump. Centralized umps embody a disconnect between them and the on-field crews. The gain for the umps in expanding every umpiring crew is a way of getting the umps' union to accept having the replay ump be able to override a wider range of calls. And the NFL standard of "undisputable visual evidence" to override an on-field call works there and should in MLB to avoid excessive delays and the unease of declaring your crew buddy blew one. <br /><br />For those who just don't want replay, I understand and respect your opinion but just disagree and am not interested in debating it. As they say, you can't argue a man into liking a glass of beer.Steady Eddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11342496530868597550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-86040208671461420152012-05-29T14:57:08.054-04:002012-05-29T14:57:08.054-04:00@Theophilus- Couldn't agree with you more, sir...@Theophilus- Couldn't agree with you more, sir. Stats alone can be extremely deceiving and imprecise. There are so many things they don't measure. That's why at the end of the article, I just tell people to go SEE the guy. Frankly, it was an intriguing exercise for me when I checked out his stats against the first full years of some of the greatest in the game. From seeing him- I already believed. From statistical analysis- I was convinced. It was confirmed. I'm not seeing things, he really IS that special. And I'll gladly concede the point that going to the yard and just watching him hit, run and field speaks more than a zillion numbers and spread sheets ever could.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-12098679074101075012012-05-29T14:56:03.576-04:002012-05-29T14:56:03.576-04:00Theophilus, the reason the W is marginalized for p...Theophilus, the reason the W is marginalized for pitchers is because they can only control one side of that equation. and even that side, they rarely get to control all of. <br /><br />point one: a pitcher for the rangers with a 4.0 ERA last year was likely to have more wins than a pitcher for the nationals with a 4.0 ERA would (or did). giving up 4 runs a game when your team scores <br /><br />case in point: derek holland: 3.95 ERA, record of 16-5. jordan zimmerman: 3.18 ERA, record 8-11. would you argue derek holland was twice as good of a pitcher last season than jordan? he had twice as many wins and half the losses...<br /><br />point two: very few starters pitch complete games any more. it's hard to blame them for not getting the win when the bullpen comes in and blows the lead. if someone pitches 7 innings and gives up 1 run and loses 5-2 because the bullpen gets hammered, that's not a knock on the starter, is it? <br /><br />thus the emphasis on other statistics to measure the quality of a starter.greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13848419973469239512noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-53799523976569734942012-05-29T14:55:43.064-04:002012-05-29T14:55:43.064-04:00Fear and Ignorance said...
"Bowdenball-My po...Fear and Ignorance said...<br /><br />"Bowdenball-My point was that if Lombo continues to play at his current pace, he is more valuable to this team right now because he leads off."<br /><br /><br />Personally I think lineup order doesn't really matter, and study after study backs me up on that. Here's one of the most prominent:<br /><br />http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/lineup_art.htm<br /><br />But regardless of that, I don't see how a player's value depends on where he hits in the order, since players can move around the order at the manager's discretion. Werth is a slightly better hitter than Lombardozzi all things considered. That's the end of the analysis as far as I'm concerned. You wouldn't say Flores is a better hitter than Zimmerman because Flores bats eighth so he's performing better in his role than Zimmerman is in his, would you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com