tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post4285197311275648775..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: The NL East just got even tougherMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-76022292372687778152010-12-15T10:53:47.336-05:002010-12-15T10:53:47.336-05:00Until Zimmerman can prove himself a winner, he is ...Until Zimmerman can prove himself a winner, he is no more than J.D. Martin, who has more wins and a better Major League ERA than Zimmerman. I'm rooting for him. He might become an ace.DFLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-17248740781973220512010-12-15T08:48:13.403-05:002010-12-15T08:48:13.403-05:00DFL:
31 innings? Really?
Really?
And who said ...DFL:<br /><br />31 innings? Really?<br /><br />Really?<br /><br />And who said anything about a sub-4 ERA? You called him a #5 starter. You were wrong. #5 starters are by definition in the bottom 20% or so of regular starters in baseball. Even Zimmermann's numbers over that ridiculously small sample size are closer to league average than the bottom 20%.Bowdenballnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-78046103882611408132010-12-15T00:23:48.829-05:002010-12-15T00:23:48.829-05:00Oh no! If one of their aces get injured they'r...Oh no! If one of their aces get injured they're done! They'll only have three! Just like when they only had two aces for most of the season and finished with the best record in baseball! You can't win a division with only three aces!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-12030762701966303072010-12-15T00:16:39.088-05:002010-12-15T00:16:39.088-05:00You guys are funny. You're counting on the Phi...You guys are funny. You're counting on the Phillies getting old in 3 or 4 years for you to feel good about your chances. As if the Phillies haven't shown they're willing and able to make moves to improve their club... as they've done every year since winning the Series. They signed Ibanez (who's much older than 30) to replace Burrell, and he had only the best season of his career, making the AllStar team. They went to the WS in 2009, and went out and traded for Halladay and signed Placido Planaco. Now they've signed Cliff Lee after winning their 4th straight division. And if you really think the Nats are going to be contenders in two years I can only say good luck with that. And good luck with paying a guy 126 million for hitting .126 with runners in scoring position.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-4909704157249018642010-12-14T16:16:07.062-05:002010-12-14T16:16:07.062-05:00I don't really trust Mr. Pavano. He has stuff,...I don't really trust Mr. Pavano. He has stuff, he has potential but, my God, he is often, very often injured. That is why I would not put my bucks on him. 2010 was a great year for him. He pitched a lot of innings, so you can say that he'll spent a part of 2011 season on the injury list, with a big contract in his pocket. Beware, beware...<br /><br />As you see, english is not my natural language...Noirelunenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-37801839643240756322010-12-14T15:38:40.672-05:002010-12-14T15:38:40.672-05:00Jordan Zimmerman, Mr. Bowdenball, allowed 17 earne...Jordan Zimmerman, Mr. Bowdenball, allowed 17 earned runs and eight home runs in 31 innings for a 4.94 ERA last season. The home run totals are especially troubling as he allowed only ten in 91 innings in 2009. Has he lost something since his Tommy John surgery and can he get it back again? In 16 games in 2009, Zimmerman's ERA was 4.63. Until Zimmerman can regularly log 180 innings a season with a sub-4 ERA, he is still a young pitcher with plenty of potential who belongs on the back end of a rotation until he can prove otherwise.DFLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-33453325118058038922010-12-14T15:34:46.653-05:002010-12-14T15:34:46.653-05:00It seems to again to boil down to Zimmermann, Mock...It seems to again to boil down to Zimmermann, Mock, Detwiler and then Yuniesky stepping up. That could potentially be a very young, more than decent rotation. The operative word is still unfortunately "potentially". <br /><br /> If Zimmermann develops into a Matt Cain type pitcher you have your #1 starter. If Mock can ever discover how to manage and dispel his inner demons? He seems to have more than a bit of Hanrahan in him? By the end of the year Solis and Rosenbaum should be ready. Lannan should really be the #5 starter instead of Marquis and/or Livan Hernandez. Next year Strasburg returns. Thompson might finally get going as well.<br /><br />There are still glimmers of hope. And there is June's draft as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-4934016763304797442010-12-14T15:30:16.449-05:002010-12-14T15:30:16.449-05:00There is nothing wrong with Blanton. His career h...There is nothing wrong with Blanton. His career has been up and down but he has been consistent enough to be better than Livan and he strikes out more batters than Marquis and Lannan.<br /><br />Here is an interesting comparison between Carl Pavano(Who so many people seem to want) and Joe Blanton<br /><br />Joe Blanton Career - ERA - 4.30 K/9 - 5.82 BB/9 - 2.51 HR/9 - 1.02 K/BB - 2.32 FIP - 4.21<br /><br />Carl Pavano Career - ERA - 4.34 K/9 - 5.72 BB/9 2.26 HR/9 - 1.01 K/BB - 2.54 FIP - 4.15<br /><br />The major difference is Blanton is 5 years younger and has pitched 175 innings or more each of the last 6 season, topping 190 5 of those times. Pavano has only hit 175 innings twice in that same time frame. Also Blanton wouldn't cost much player wise if the Nats took on most of his salary. If the Phils ate 2 million a year on it he would only cost the Nats 6.5 million per season where Pavano is going to take around 10 million and an extra year probably. You make the call.pdowdy83noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-48492395604640173402010-12-14T15:09:39.518-05:002010-12-14T15:09:39.518-05:00The Phillies are doomed, doomed I tellya. Now, *ev...The Phillies are doomed, doomed I tellya. Now, *every game* will be a reverse lock against them. They have no chance against those odds.sec3 my sofanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-69224508581887210382010-12-14T15:03:09.812-05:002010-12-14T15:03:09.812-05:00DFL:
If you think Jordan Zimmermann is a #5 start...DFL:<br /><br />If you think Jordan Zimmermann is a #5 starter and that he hasn't shown anything, you really might as well not say anything else. You've shown us that you have no idea what you're talking about. <br /><br />In 2009 he had a K/BB ratio over 3 and a HR/9 rate under 1. He was frankly one of the better pitchers in the game. His Wins Above Replacement Value probably put him in the Top 100 or so for the season even though he only threw 90 innings. If he'd duplicated those numbers over another 90 innings he would have ranked in the Top 20 or so in the league.Bowdenballnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-14692913678394104512010-12-14T14:58:02.620-05:002010-12-14T14:58:02.620-05:00No on Blanton. He's on the downhill side and ...No on Blanton. He's on the downhill side and not the top starter we're looking for. Plus, the image of taking a Philly cast-off pitcher is terrible. Get a 1st baseman. Trade for pitching if the price is not too high, but don't panic.JamesFannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-30609730727550420072010-12-14T14:30:09.285-05:002010-12-14T14:30:09.285-05:00A theory has some basis in fact.
"Off-the-wal...A theory has some basis in fact.<br />"Off-the-wall remark" might be a better description of an Oswald trade.N. Cognitonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-4758426909599911582010-12-14T13:33:46.909-05:002010-12-14T13:33:46.909-05:00The Nats are more likely to have a rotation with f...The Nats are more likely to have a rotation with five fifth starters(until he can prove himself, Jordan Zimmerman is still no better than a fifth starter). Look for the likes of Craig Stammen, J.D. Martin and Matt Chico in 2011. It appears that a 60 win season is in the cards next year with the Phillies winning about 15 out of 18 against the NL East permanent doormat. But at least attendance will be very good for Phillies games at Nats Park.DFLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-63977990852372909932010-12-14T13:25:47.090-05:002010-12-14T13:25:47.090-05:00@Steveo
I know that 'Blanton available' i...@Steveo<br /><br />I know that 'Blanton available' is being reported, but here is my theory (admittedly nothing more) - Oswalt makes maybe 2 starts in the playoffs for them, so he can't be critical to their playoff success. It is really about Halladay/Lee pitching 4 games in each series. So do they need him to get in? Maybe, but doesn't seem likely. He is insurance against injury, but that is a lot of money for insurance, isn't it? <br /><br />And what does either guy bring back? Blanton brings almost nothing back talent wise (your trade, for instance), and the Phils have to eat salary too, most likely. Oswalt could bring back their remaining needs in bullpen and OF platoon for Brown, plus they get the other guy to take all the salary.<br /><br />Probably doesn't work for the reasons that you are saying, but it is worth a conversation.Wallyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01557557989122256161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-62548357723862623732010-12-14T13:09:02.241-05:002010-12-14T13:09:02.241-05:00@ Wally:
Sorry the Phillies aren't trading Os...@ Wally:<br /><br />Sorry the Phillies aren't trading Oswalt, but Blanton is on the market.<br /><br />I'd like to see them keep both Desi and Espy. I'm not sold yet on their other middle infield prospects. If they start to develop than you can trade someone next year or at the deadline. Right now though I'd keep them. I do like the idea of trading for a young positional guy, though I prefer a CF. <br /><br />Outside of Detwiler none of those guys have much value. Maybe they could be thrown in as a filler piece, but that is about it (though they could maybe be used to trade for Blanton. Say Jason Maxwell and Atilano for Blanton and $3 million).Steveospeakhttp://www.fanspeak.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-7508755417368637312010-12-14T13:08:33.026-05:002010-12-14T13:08:33.026-05:00Sunderland - Marquis obviously had a bad year last...Sunderland - Marquis obviously had a bad year last year, but the scary thing is that even if you disregard his W-L and ERA, his K/9 and BB/9 weren't that far out of line with his performance over the past 3-4 years. In that sense 2010 wasn't so unrepresentative a year, and there's only so much of a bounce-back that's "fair and realistic" to expect in 2011. <br /><br />Blanton has better career #s than Marquis, and he had an off year last year as well, and so it's reasonable to expect at least a moderate bounce-back for him. <br /><br />Ultimately, they're both middle of the rotation guys. That's basically what seems to be left on the market (including any realistic trade market), and Blanton at a discount on his $17M for 2 years looks like a better and more certain bet than Pavano. Odds are, the Nats get neither, but that leaves them with a pretty bleak looking rotation on Opening Day.HHovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-53781781789156972072010-12-14T13:07:50.463-05:002010-12-14T13:07:50.463-05:00I don't know why we're even playing the ga...I don't know why we're even playing the games next summer in the NL East. Lee to Phillie is depressing. The Nats had better get some offense.JamesFannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-57356167602044218712010-12-14T13:06:17.316-05:002010-12-14T13:06:17.316-05:00Feel Wood said...
"The wild card race is par...Feel Wood said... <br />"The wild card race is part of the pennant race."<br /><br />Not exactly. If a team such as the Phillies gets off to an incredibly hot first 2/3rds of the season, there could conceivably be no pennant race at all in the NL East."<br /><br />A pennant is a League Championship, not a Division Championship.N. Cognitonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-59214795360785961832010-12-14T13:05:11.829-05:002010-12-14T13:05:11.829-05:00I am both a Cub and Nat fan, so I'm used to ha...I am both a Cub and Nat fan, so I'm used to hating the Phillies, back to hating Mike Schmide the old NL East days. But I have to respect what they're doing, it is instructive and even enlightening to see a team learn from past mistakes.<br /><br />The Phillies core of Utley, Howard and Rollins really started to fall into place in 2004 -- but it took the franchise three years before they made the playoffs. The Philly weakness was their pitching, which was a parade of league-average starters:<br /><br />2004 Rotation: Eric Milton, Brett Myers, Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, with a smattering of Cory Lidle<br /><br />2005: delete Eric Milton, add Jon Lieber and more Cory Lidle. Game changers!<br /><br />2006: delete Padilla, bank on Cole Hamels debut (ERA>4), with some Gavin Floyd and Ryan Madsen-as-starter experiment mixed in as contingency plans.<br /><br />2007: Re-Tool! Add Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick and Kyle Lohse! So much depth you can put Myers in the bullpen and make the playoffs. Whoops, you get swept in the LDS.<br /><br />Only in 2008 did the team blossom, when Hamels emerged as a marquee starter in 2008 and the team added Lee, then Halladay, Oswalt. One could argue that with the core of Rollins, Utley and Howard, the Phillies should have been the dominant team in the NL East for seven years running how, had they not been fooling around with run-of-the-mill pitching from 2004-2007.<br /><br />Other teams make the same mistake. The Brewers have a nice, young core of Fielder, Weeks, Braun and JJ Hardy and exactly one playoff win to show for it -- and now their window has closed.DC Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-41149670857329745742010-12-14T12:58:08.878-05:002010-12-14T12:58:08.878-05:00(a) Forget Blanton, but the Nats should try for O...(a) Forget Blanton, but the Nats should try for Oswalt, especially if it is mostly about money. If he was a FA, wouldn't you sign him for 2/$30m?<br />(b) still need significant lineup improvements, and pitching just seems cost prohibitive, so they should focus on lineup. Would love to see them use organizational depth at C, MI or bullpen to get a young, cost controlled position player, like OF or 1B. Storen or Desi/Espy for Alonso or Sanchez?<br />(c) If they fill 1B through a vet, Lee=LaRoche=Overbay (imo), and we shouldn't expect all that much from any of them. Not more than 2 years.<br />(d) Trade either Desi or Espy. They both have value, perhaps more than we realize, because they can provide major league average play (or better) at SS for $400k for a few years, where the requirements for hitting are much less. Playing the other one at 2B lessens their value, so we ought to trade the one with the most value to fill out a lineup hole elsewhere.<br />(e) With pitching so highly values right now, can we really not turn one or more of Stammen, Detwiler, Atilano, Martin, Martis, Chico, ... into a useful role player or C prospect, at least? For what possible reason do we need all of those guys? Some yes, but all?Wallyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01557557989122256161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-45027931006013332092010-12-14T12:53:29.927-05:002010-12-14T12:53:29.927-05:00The Nats still have young guys with "stuff&q...The Nats still have young guys with "stuff" and some potential. It starts with Jordan Zimmermann but continues with Ross Detwiler and especially Garret Mock. In 1 year Sammy Solis, Stephen Strasburg and Danny Rosenbaum should join the staff. In TWO years perhaps AJ Cole and Robbie Ray. McGreary is also rehabbing from TJ surgery that lefty might prove to be a potential top of the rotation starter? PLUS they have another draft with three picks at the top. The Phillies just lost their #1 by signing type A Cliff Lee but gained a high second rounder when the Nats signed Werth. <br /><br />And then? There's Espinosa, Desmond, Norris, Harper, Perez, Ramirez, Lombardozzi and perhaps Burgess, possibly Marerro. There's Hague, Hood, and Bloxom. <br /><br />In terms of the future 2 years out the Nats could look far, far better than the Phillies if as Mark put it, things fall into place. If they could somehow get a Shields or a Greinke without literally giving away the farm? <br /><br />It really IS NOT as bad as it looks in 2012. The Phillies will be aging rapidly. The Nats should be getting better and younger. Which would you choose?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-20992925591129489452010-12-14T12:42:34.579-05:002010-12-14T12:42:34.579-05:00Now that I see that Brian Bruney signed somewhere ...Now that I see that Brian Bruney signed somewhere else, guaranteeing that we cannot pick him up again out of desperation, I declare that this has already been a successful winter.Ernienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-10950045108218822472010-12-14T12:32:21.771-05:002010-12-14T12:32:21.771-05:00Bowdenball, kudos for the nice post.
HHover, takin...Bowdenball, kudos for the nice post.<br />HHover, taking Marquis's 2010 and comapring it to anything is unfair and unrealistic. <br /><br />DCJohn "Also, need Nyger Morgan to realize that he can be the league's MVP, if he can channel his emotions. He certainly has the intelligence and athletic ability to be MVP"<br />If Nyjer is a candidate for MVP, you'd have to also agree that several hundred other NL players also have "the intelligence and athletic ability to be MVP."Sunderlandnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-42850710877542981862010-12-14T12:29:24.126-05:002010-12-14T12:29:24.126-05:00Well, Stairs is four years younger than Jamie Moye...Well, Stairs is four years younger than Jamie Moyer.Section 223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-34052202763080563992010-12-14T12:28:34.148-05:002010-12-14T12:28:34.148-05:00Section 215 Row A:
Obviously you're right tha...Section 215 Row A:<br /><br />Obviously you're right that Werth will be old by the time the Phils start to show their age. The difference is that we have a ton of under-30 talent to supplement Werth as he ages. I think even a Phillies fan would agree that the Nats have far more young talent than the Phils. So it basically becomes a waiting game. We wait and hope that both teams age rapidly, with our youngsters improving while their 32 and up team deteriorates. They dominate the NL East in 2011 and probably 2012 and then search for the Fountain of Youth.Bowdenballnoreply@blogger.com